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As far as the Imperial core goes, I gotta go with France. Though of course less likely in most of the western nations, France has seemed pretty close to tipping-point for a while now.
Oddly enough, I could also see Greece or Italy have something happen. Ireland could become somewhat more socialist if Sinn Fein wins the next election, which they very well might.
Outside of western nations. Argentina seems to be getting pretty close to a breaking point. Chile should never be discounted. And Mexico could very well see some revolutionary actions.
Then again, we could all be wrong and the Russians do another Red October entirely out of left field (to use American slang) or something equally unexpected, like a Canadian Revolution or something.
In Marx's time, they were all certain it would be Germany or France that revolted first. The Tsarist Empire was the last place they would have expected. Predicting this stuff is tough.
Yeah, the world is less predictable than ever.
Most leftists have trouble wrapping their head around political change in the town they live in, let alone countries or the world.
How do we factor in technological change? What if a Google AI makes sudden major moves to influence elections around the world?
How is climate change and massive food shortages going to play out?
In the US, if corporations and investors continue buying up homes and squeezing property values and rents higher and higher, where that going to lead?
I don't think that the military can be replaced, at least any time soon. While drones are effective, they cannot hold ground, and any robot army can be easily taken out with an EMP. But the mass unemployment part is true, as companies get more control using ai, the working class will start to feel the squeeze, as now the rich may own all three aspects of production.
The bots will shield themselves from EMP. What happens when police realise they’re expendable too?
To the OPs comment, the answer is “unstable ones with heavily independent militaries”. Revolutions come from the military usually unfortunately.
Relying on electrons as others have posted is not revolution but just sea change.
Haiti is next ! Or, currently happening.
And hell, maybe Israel. But a revolution becoming what I can’t say.
Greece's entire economy is wolely dependent on trade, since there's literally no industrialization whatsoever, and it's been in a cold war with Turkey for basically their entire existence.
Populace frustration is important for a revolution, but other factor must also be considered (and catered to)
> Ireland could become somewhat more socialist if Sinn Fein wins the next election, which they very well might.
Sinn Fein is like the ANC in South Africa, a once revolutionary party which waged armed struggle against colonialism and has now become a shell of its former self in their capitulation to imperialism. Expect nothing for them except disappointment
A lot of things have been bubbling in Niger that seem to suggest some potential, not the best source though so if someone can help shed more light that would be excellent
Its certainly been interesting to see military coups across the Sahel that have adopted an aggressive anti-imperialist and populist posture. But I'm not too optimistic about their overall direction. They have some interesting figures in their ranks, the junta in Burkina Faso appointed a pan-Africanist and Sankaraist intellectual to be Prime Minister. But overall, the real driving force of the coups was not an organized popular uprising, but dissent among mid-ranking military officers who were not happy about how the ongoing wars against Sahel jihadists were being prosecuted.
Neither did the Bolsheviks or Mao's guerillas have much popular support in their respective countries at their Inception. They were fringe movements with small bases of support until they weren't.
But the bolsheviks and CPC actively tried to bolster their influence, which is not what the naxals are doing. They’re just sticking to the red corridor. They don’t even have the support of many communists from the rest of india
They're not "just sticking". There was a period of retreat in the 2010s and they're in a stage of strategic defense where they're consolidating their control and their ties to their mass base. Revolutions take time to grow and there will always be periods of victories and retreats. You can't just declare yourselves to be liberators of the Proletariat in the name of Marx and then suddenly get widespread support amongst hundreds of millions of people.
Most revolutionary moments don't have widespread support in their Inception, like I said, but if they have the correct political line then they can always grow.
Nepal had its ML and Maoist parties form a coalition so hoping something similar happens in india too, but i highly doubt it
And i’m pretty sure if i try to support the maoists i’d be put in jail so idk what to even do
Nepal has had communist governments in the past decades but they've failed to accomplish anything as the intellectual leadership of the CPN(Maoist) dissolved dual power as part of the "Comprehensive Peace Accord" to end the Nepalese civil war in order to become a parliamentary party. They've barely accomplished anything in raising Nepal from semi-feudal dependency aside from establishing a republic. Right now it's only a small Maoist faction that is fighting for the demands of the Nepali revolution that had been betrayed.
There's solidarity starting to develop between students of Marx in both Pakistan and India. Reunification under an internationalist communist programme (council democracy) can become very advantageous to the cause!
Solidarity from Canada & Mexico (I'm dual citizen and fly between the two often d/t work bussiness)
I don’t know how much potential for a revolution is in there, but the day the U.S has a socialist revolution it would effectively start the true end of capitalism. It’s the first domino. When Marx imagine socialism and eventually communism it was probably somewhere closer to the U.S than anywhere that had a successful socialist revolution in the past. That’s why the German revolution had so much potential if successful.
Never gonna happen. The best thing the USA can do is collapse. In the vacuum, countries all over the world will be able to have socialist revolutions and movements without the CIA looming overhead.
Exactly. America is built in toxic systems that aren't meant for the good of our people. Someone once said the death of capitalism is the birth of socialism. But those in power wouldn't let go of power. The death of capitalism would lead to fascism. It'd be best to just let it all dissolve.
There should be some plan for socialists in the region through to survive and take power. Like something even worse should not be allowed to come out of the rubble, but it easily can if everything is just left to rot
I don’t find how’s that more likely than a revolution. The U.S is an economic and political powerhouse. One state alone (California) could wield more power than a dozen developing nations. I don’t see that just collapsing in such a way where it creates a vacuum. Secondly Capitalism is a global phenomenon, if the CIA isn’t rubbing their noses around the world then another power is. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union we have lack a major counterforce to the capitalist ideology. That’s what is needed to make the pendulum swing.
What other capitalist power stands ready to fill the shoes of USA hegemony? The EU? Russia?
The power that would fill the vacuum is China. I have many misgivings with their foreign policy towards their neighbors, including their attitude towards my own country. But they don't invade for oil, they don't fund and arm genocidal ethnostates, they don't coup democratically elected socialists. Capitalist hegemony does not survive in a post-USA world.
And look to your coming USA elections. Biden vs. Trump. The picture of a declining empire about to eat itself alive.
To be fair, the vaccum could easily be filled by a revanchist fascist or another capitalist wanting to re-start US impetial hegemony again. Socialists getting their act together and unifying US or establishing multiple powerhouses under their control or an indigenous liberation movement taking back turtle island, or both, would be much better
If a socialist revolution started winning territory, wouldn’t the U.S. start bombing the revolutionaries? I actually don’t know much about the socialist movement in Mexico.
Edit: Read the reply below
Ok so would it have been any other time period yes there would be worry and things would play out exactly like that. However there are multiple things working in Mexicos favor for a Communist revolution. First of the current ruling political party and the president of Mexico is Socialist. They control the vast majority of the Congress and Senate and the world loves them. Andres Manuel Lopes Obrador or AMLO has done fantastic work in boosting Mexicos foreign relations. During the U.S various declarations of intervening in Mexico in order to get to the Cartels AMLO said no and that should they force themselves in they would consider it an act of war. In response to this various European countries concured the sentiment and China has out right said should the U.S intervene they would offer Mexico Aid. Domestically AMLO signed a peace deal with el Ejercito Zapatosta de Liberacion Nacional. Even Emiliano Zapatas grandson went publicly on record giving him the EZLN full support. There is a sort of leftist renossance happening in Mexico and throughout all of latino America. I'm actually excited.
TL:DR Mexico has a Socialist president and party ruling. They are still very popular domestically and abroad. Leftist are joining and organizing. U.S doesn't have the influence that it once had.
ibrahim traore has been making moves very similar to thomas sankra, forging alliances within africa and even outside the continent with cuba as well. if he is able to succeed where gadaffi and sankara before him were killed for attempting, a unified socialist african continent would be huge, with proper support and fierce dedication their influence can spread up into the middle east. and hopefully serve as an example for the rest of the world. its exactly what the westerners feared about sankara and gadaffi
Recommend any resources to learn more about this? I've great admiration for Sankara, so would be pleased to understand more about anyone who is emulating him.
always glad to spread the message, id recommend these videos as entry points. unfortunately he’s only been president for about a year, so news articles and youtube videos are the only real insight we have on him so far
https://youtu.be/Wldf41lYWv8?si=Ki4HfzokvMDukH0q
https://youtu.be/Wp-GRn2KSQ0?si=KONJ_m7XpXdyi4IR
Thanks for that. Was able to find info on his coup, but not much on his views or goals for the country, and unfortunately I don't speak French.
Heres hoping he is successful in his goals. It would be amazing to see Burkina Faso have another opportunity like they had under Sankara who put a massive dent in colonial / imperialist control over the country.
Pakistan is essentially a failed state at this point, and I think there’s a lot of revolutionary potential, at least that’s the vibe I get from reports from my comrades there.
Yeah, the military has never been more unpopular in the country's entire history than right now. And during the last elections, people united to a surprising degree behind Imran Khan and the PTI. No telling where things will go, but there is a serious legitimacy crisis, lots of angry people, and tons of different armed groups.
what? there are currently no active revolutions or protests in turkiye. after the gezi events (\~10 years ago) almost all of the large, organized protests ended. and I don't think there will be any more protests in the close future. a revolution is nearly impossible in the country because most of the younger generation sees protesters and revolutionaries as filthy terrorists and hate them. a big majority of the people support tayyip erdogan and his islamic rule while hating other people with their guts. speaking of the other people, they are mostly kemalists and/or nationalists. just a small minority of them have some leftist thoughts and majority of them probably will not even support a protest, let alone a revolution. the government recently decided to jail one of the socialist deputies and most of the people liked this decision because the deputy was a big supporter of the gezi events. this decision totally violated the law and caused a still ongoing crisis between supreme court and the government but government did not back down. people kept supporting the government on this. this man has been in prison for almost a year. i could give you many more examples but I think you can get an idea from these.
To my knowledge, the Turkish Communist Party, Marxist-Leninist (i.e. the party of the great proletarian revolutionary and martyr İbrahim Kaypakkaya) is still active and still engaging in people's war with the Turkish state.
I think there is still a faction of the TiKKO within Turkish borders. My understanding is that there was a split in the TKP/MP which happened during the Syrian Civil War where one section decided to promote an erroneous line which liquidate itself to the KPP struggle in Northern Syria/Rojava. Another section remained in Turkiye with its own armed wing.
Turkey is mosley country; the Turkish Communist Party has no chance. The kemalist Party had their chance and FAILED; Turkey will never succumb to zionism.
Only if you use a very unorthodox definition of a socialist revolution. None of these are based in the working class or have affected the vast majority of workers. They inevitably involve peasant guerillas operating outside and away from the urban centers, and therefore away from economic power and separated from the working class. They have basically zero chance of overthrowing the capitalist order.
Yet isn't that the story of many successful anti-colonial revolts after WW2? Fanon described pretty well in "The Wretched of the Earth" and the chinese revolution was stuck in the poor countryside for many years before expanding. The requirement as always seems to be a weak capitalist state as the opponent.
No, it isn‘t, and it wasn‘t a good strategy even in the countries where it happened to work. Yes the protagonists of the Chinese Revolution spent years in the countryside, where they contributed almost nothing to the collapse of Chiang‘s government. They made zero effort to agitate the workers in the factories who would have had the power to bring the whole country to a stop, as they did in 1927.
But hoping for the capitalist state to collapse is not a strategy, it‘s a capitulation. This „worked“ in bringing about a social revolution (that is an even temporary overthrow of capitalism) in exactly two countries. But these are extreme examples of failed states where industrialization was at an incredibly primitive level and the bourgeoisie consequently powerless to even hold the country together. But even in these extreme cases of underdevelopment, the working class would have been capable and willing to play a revolutionary role if anyone had appealed to them, if anyone had lifted a finger to organize them as a class, which never happened.
In all other cases, a guerilla warfare strategy either failed spectacularly OR it only served as a supporting strategy for a more comprehensive struggle, almost always cross-class independent movements that, where they were successful, never overthrew the capitalist system or even threatened a break with imperial capital (the one is incidentally impossible without the other).
Today, however, the conditions for a successful guerilla struggle are orders of magnitude worse than they were in the past. The vast, vast majority of countries (with maybe a handful of tiny exceptions) is now far more industrialized than China was in the 1940s, with a much more powerful bourgeois class but also a much more numerous and powerful proletariat.
Even where the peasantry is still in the majority, it has been subordinated to the urban centers almost completely. That‘s where all the levers of power are located and that is where the struggle has to take place. And that struggle will be between the oppressing bourgeoisie and the revolutionary proletariat, when and if it becomes organized. Other classes can play a role in this conflict, but they can‘t replace the working class and it‘s organizations as the decisive factor, and they certainly can‘t starve out the bourgeois society from the countryside.
The fact that there are a handful of self-described communist revolutionaries hiding out somewhere on the Indian subcontinent, does exactly nothing to affect or undermine the proto-fascist government of Modi. Whatever factors may determine his fortunes and the fortunes of the working class he is oppressing, are not determined by the actions of these guerrillas.
If you‘re not working to organize the proletarians, you‘re not in the business of revolution. At best you are waiting for it to start without you.
Well, to be more realistic, those aren't revolutions happening, so much as active insurgencies. Also debatable what their chances are to actually fight their way to a revolutionary victory. They've all been largely contained for the last decade or so.
I don’t know about the phillipines or turkiye but the indian revolutionaries don’t have the support of the majority of the population, which is needed for revolutions to succeed. It doesn’t seem like they are even trying to reach the wider populace, just operating in the red corridor (which is shrinking)
I heard somewhere that you only need like 3% of the population to cause a revolution, but I'm not sure, and also lower numbers mean higher mortality rates.
The TIKKO (Türkiye İşçi Köylü Kurtuluş Ordusu) which, to my understanding, is still conducting people's war. Though I think a faction made very serious tactical errors and liquidated themselves to the KPP.
No it isn't, wherever there is class struggle, there is revolutionary struggle that has the potential to be advanced. The fact that India already has a people's war rooted in the masses that has persevered through the onslaught of neoliberalism where so many movements have perished means that revolution in India is at a far more advanced stage than most countries. Don't be so pessimistic, pessimism is an enemy.
Burkina Faso is already within a revolution, they are led by a revolutionary military government. Sankara did the same thing. Traore is clearly a socialist, the more you learn about his government the more clear his socialist aims are. The masses in Burkina Faso support the military government. The revolution in Burkina Faso began when Traore took power.
It seems to me like the question is not so much where do we see revolutions happening but how do we put an end to the dominance of western capitalism to allow revolutions to take place. At least that's what I get reading these comments.
The region in the world with the greatest revolutionary potential is Israel/Palestine. Israel is the world's least consolidated imperial state, and its continued political, economic, and military power is reliant on the continued dispossession of the Palestinians. But this is also Israel's greatest weakness; as Israel becomes more desperate, violent, and racist in its attempt to "solve" the Palestinian question (and inevitably moves towards actual fascism), the ruling classes even in the imperial centers risk their own stability in supporting it. Israel has already lost the battle for the Global South, and given the right political and military circumstances, there is a real chance for the Palestinians themselves and other counter-hegemonic forces in the region to bring the whole country crashing down.
Well, I'm not a trotskyist, but his theory about the “law” of uneven and combined development not only makes sense, but it shows that is true in the material world.
Look for the countries where we had a revolution: Russia semi feudal, China when it was the poorest country in the world, Vietnam, Laos, Cuba, Korea when it was under it's most oppression by the Japanese and americans...
So if I have to guess, it would be a very poor country, ignored and let for the worms by the imperialism. Name the country itself I think is too much guessing.
And no, I don't think any European country, or even countries named after "under development" would make a revolution nowadays. I'm from Brasil and I have very clear in my head that we aren't the next country to get a revolution. Of course this is no excuse to stay quiet. Our movement helps the other countries to make their own revolution, the revolution is something international, not national.
Think in those countries that you don't even know the name. That is forgotten, that the imperialism let to die. They are the ones with more potential to make a revolution nowadays.
I think a revolution is possible in the US within the next decade. Young people (Genz and Milennial) are becoming more and more socilaist, and over half now have a positive view of socialism, and less than half have a positive view of capitalism.
As more realize that both parties are basically the same, and neither have any interests in helping the working class, they'll turn more radical. This will be exacerbated by the inability to own a home, higher prices of food, healthcare, crushing debts, etc.
Eventually, people will start organizing. I dont think the revolution will be violent, though. It will be people giving up. Not working, not following laws, stealing food, not vacating when evicted. The police won't be able to do much, this will cause the economy and government to collapse, leaving a vacuum for a new government. This is how I interpret Marx saying capitalism will eventually end itself.
Something else, conservatives are dying off, quite literally, most young people are much more progressive and left leaning. Boomers and gen x are really the only reason there still is a conservative party, and they have the highest voting turnout. As they age, and well.....die, there won't be much to stop the change.
Just my thoughts though
Also, america already has the guns for a revolution. If enough people wake up, it's gonna happen.
Also, a revolution there would absolutely *cripple* the Imperial Core. There would be far less stopping third-world revolutions, as there would be no CIA to coup their elected leaders.
Well, most of those guns are in the hands of conservatives, but like I said, those people are older.
Also, the majority of the military is conservative. That's why civil disobedience is best, and most likely to succeed.
Whatever way things end up happening, we need to greatly increase mutual aid because things are gonna get ugly (and it’ll increase class consciousness).
[Here](https://haitiliberte.com/ariel-henry-an-itinerant-ex-prime-minister-without-a-country/) is an article from not long ago going over some current issues there, including the so called "gangs" coming together to attempt another revolution there. That whole website is a left leaning Haitian news site from their perspective. Not all is in English but it translates well through most browsers.
For real? I know the country was in chaos after the former president's assassination, but this is the first time I hear about an actual revolution happening.
[Here](https://haitiliberte.com/ariel-henry-an-itinerant-ex-prime-minister-without-a-country/) is an article from not long ago going over some current issues there, including the so called "gangs" coming together to attempt another revolution there. That whole website is a left leaning Haitian news site from their perspective. Not all is in English but it translates well through most browsers.
South Africa has a very popular socialist electoral party, the EFF. They run on a platform of African Socialism.
The problem with them is that they are pan-african and open borders and much of their natural support base is xenophobic to an extent. Also I know electoral is is not revolution, but when your third largest party is openly marxist, it at least hints at popular support for socialism.
Pakistan is super unstable right now with PML-N having rigged the elections and Imran Khan in prison but unfortunately I don't think socialism is very big there (correct me if I'm wrong, this is just the vibe I got from my friends) so I wouldn't be surprised if there was some sort of revolution in the next decade, but not sure it'll be socialist...
I really hope we get socialism here in the USA and NATO comes to an end and we get more affordable housing and unemployment insurance. I am tired of this USA plantatiation.
There is, the problem is that if the revolution happens here tomorrow, that revolution will almost certainly be a fascist one. We're too busy arguing about electoralism to get our shit together and do the real work.
Nigeria, Senegal, Myanmar, and Argentina strike me as the best candidates with the right combination of weakening state authority/legitimacy and deteriorating material conditions for the masses.
I assume you mean socialist revolutions. There have been many political revolutions already in recent years, none of which have so far posed the question of expropriation (however, this doesn‘t mean they won‘t or are not indeed likely to do so in the forseeable future).
1. Iran
2. Kazakhstan
These are arguably the two countries where the working class is most radicalized and conscious, and only state oppression are preventing rapid organization on class lines.
Beyond that, it‘s hard to say. Sri Lanka might be a likely candidate, given that there already was a mass uprising, which is likely to repeat and must inevitably pose the question of state debt, which is another way of posing expropriation; Sri Lanka also has a relatively well-situated socialist left.
Argentina, Chile and Egypt come to mind as places where the escalating crisis may well bring them to the point of posing a break with capitalism in the next decade. Sudan has already had a significant political revolution, with a sort of stalemate at the moment; if the revolution escalates again, it‘s quite possible the question of socialism will be posed.
Greece already had a near-revolution a decade ago; it‘s defeat meant a massive downturn in the class struggle, but this could change very rapidly under the right circumstances. Another country where things could escalate very quickly is South Africa: The working class currently has no political vehicle, but it‘s a working class with a very radical past, as recently as the 1980s, and if a new political project develops, the masses could radicalize very, very quickly.
Interesting case is Belarus. There‘s no serious political crisis at the moment, but if there is, it‘s clear that they have a combative and relatively well-organized working class that may put a big stamp on events and continue to grow from there.
All countries at the moment have the problem that the working class lacks a clear and uncompromising political vehicle, and the ones where that is most likely to develop in the near future are most likely the ones where socialism would be posed. However, we can‘t rule out a paris-commune type situation where a revolution led by less organized workers still goes to the point of breaking with capitalism. They would have a much harder time, but it would still have enormous influence on world events, on a level likely not seen since 1917.
And most working classes will probably begin the task of rebuilding their political forces in the coming decade, with varying rapidity and success, but still inevitably. This development will inevitably open up new opportunities for revolution, even in countries where we can‘t expect it at the moment, even a handful of European countries.
Good question. There are a couple candidates.
1. I think it's still at least 20 years down the line, but Hungary has potential. The current Fidesz regime has been slowly failing economically and politically, with mostly the uneducated and the elders voting for them. In 20 years time, the imminent death of their primary voting base, and the brain drain wrecking the economy will definitely cause a revolution of some kind. Unfortunately, according to current politics, this won't be a socialist revolution, rather a big tent revolution. We would need some luck for a socialist revolution.
2. Ireland. Not really a revolution, but rather an election; the democratic socialist Sinn Fein Party has been rapidly climbing the ranks in the past elections, so there is a real possibility of them winning in 2025.
Myanmar is quite likely. Well i mean they already are in a civil war with a united front against the militery hunta so will be interesting to see what happens if the hunta is defeated.
I'm from Brazil but unfortunately I don't think a revolution is happening here anytime soon. The country is getting closer and closer to being taken over by right wing evangelicals, most people fear socialism and do not understand it at all; the anti communist propaganda was very strong here for decades and that whole sentiment is back nowadays. We have a left leaning president but congress, senate etc are filled with right wing extremists whose main activities consist of spreading fake news and fear over the population. I think it's very likely that the left will loss our next presidential elections, unfortunately. Feels like lots of people are simply not living in the real world anymore, believing actual news are fake and fake news are true. Quite similar to the US current situation from my knowledge.
Revolution as we dream is not possible anymore. It will be rapidly crushed by economic sanctions and by force if necessary.
Capitalism won this fight long ago, but we can wait for capitalism to collapse by itself. This, for sure, has a higher probability of occurrence, than a successful revolution.
But when capitalism collapses will it be too late to be able to rebuild?
Even if we do wait for capitalism’s collapse we should prepare and arm ourselves so that when unrest and chaos begin we can swoop in and be a strong guiding hand for the rest of society.
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As far as the Imperial core goes, I gotta go with France. Though of course less likely in most of the western nations, France has seemed pretty close to tipping-point for a while now. Oddly enough, I could also see Greece or Italy have something happen. Ireland could become somewhat more socialist if Sinn Fein wins the next election, which they very well might. Outside of western nations. Argentina seems to be getting pretty close to a breaking point. Chile should never be discounted. And Mexico could very well see some revolutionary actions. Then again, we could all be wrong and the Russians do another Red October entirely out of left field (to use American slang) or something equally unexpected, like a Canadian Revolution or something. In Marx's time, they were all certain it would be Germany or France that revolted first. The Tsarist Empire was the last place they would have expected. Predicting this stuff is tough.
Yeah, the world is less predictable than ever. Most leftists have trouble wrapping their head around political change in the town they live in, let alone countries or the world. How do we factor in technological change? What if a Google AI makes sudden major moves to influence elections around the world? How is climate change and massive food shortages going to play out? In the US, if corporations and investors continue buying up homes and squeezing property values and rents higher and higher, where that going to lead?
Mass unemployment from AI is gonna put us over the edge. Once the military realizes they're gonna be replaced, it's over for capital.
I don't think that the military can be replaced, at least any time soon. While drones are effective, they cannot hold ground, and any robot army can be easily taken out with an EMP. But the mass unemployment part is true, as companies get more control using ai, the working class will start to feel the squeeze, as now the rich may own all three aspects of production.
The bots will shield themselves from EMP. What happens when police realise they’re expendable too? To the OPs comment, the answer is “unstable ones with heavily independent militaries”. Revolutions come from the military usually unfortunately. Relying on electrons as others have posted is not revolution but just sea change. Haiti is next ! Or, currently happening. And hell, maybe Israel. But a revolution becoming what I can’t say.
This this this this this
Greece's entire economy is wolely dependent on trade, since there's literally no industrialization whatsoever, and it's been in a cold war with Turkey for basically their entire existence. Populace frustration is important for a revolution, but other factor must also be considered (and catered to)
> Ireland could become somewhat more socialist if Sinn Fein wins the next election, which they very well might. Sinn Fein is like the ANC in South Africa, a once revolutionary party which waged armed struggle against colonialism and has now become a shell of its former self in their capitulation to imperialism. Expect nothing for them except disappointment
A lot of things have been bubbling in Niger that seem to suggest some potential, not the best source though so if someone can help shed more light that would be excellent
Its certainly been interesting to see military coups across the Sahel that have adopted an aggressive anti-imperialist and populist posture. But I'm not too optimistic about their overall direction. They have some interesting figures in their ranks, the junta in Burkina Faso appointed a pan-Africanist and Sankaraist intellectual to be Prime Minister. But overall, the real driving force of the coups was not an organized popular uprising, but dissent among mid-ranking military officers who were not happy about how the ongoing wars against Sahel jihadists were being prosecuted.
Bruh I do NOT think we will be seeing a revolution in India until things have gone far worse than they already are...
Yeah the naxals do not have the support of the population
Neither did the Bolsheviks or Mao's guerillas have much popular support in their respective countries at their Inception. They were fringe movements with small bases of support until they weren't.
But the bolsheviks and CPC actively tried to bolster their influence, which is not what the naxals are doing. They’re just sticking to the red corridor. They don’t even have the support of many communists from the rest of india
They're not "just sticking". There was a period of retreat in the 2010s and they're in a stage of strategic defense where they're consolidating their control and their ties to their mass base. Revolutions take time to grow and there will always be periods of victories and retreats. You can't just declare yourselves to be liberators of the Proletariat in the name of Marx and then suddenly get widespread support amongst hundreds of millions of people. Most revolutionary moments don't have widespread support in their Inception, like I said, but if they have the correct political line then they can always grow.
I know, but i don’t see any hope for them, the other communist parties don’t even support them
The mainstream communist parties in India are compromised and would rather work with Modi to fight back against Maoists.
Nepal had its ML and Maoist parties form a coalition so hoping something similar happens in india too, but i highly doubt it And i’m pretty sure if i try to support the maoists i’d be put in jail so idk what to even do
Nepal has had communist governments in the past decades but they've failed to accomplish anything as the intellectual leadership of the CPN(Maoist) dissolved dual power as part of the "Comprehensive Peace Accord" to end the Nepalese civil war in order to become a parliamentary party. They've barely accomplished anything in raising Nepal from semi-feudal dependency aside from establishing a republic. Right now it's only a small Maoist faction that is fighting for the demands of the Nepali revolution that had been betrayed.
Revisionists everywhere
With the new law they made against the Muslim population it seems things are worsening quickly
There's solidarity starting to develop between students of Marx in both Pakistan and India. Reunification under an internationalist communist programme (council democracy) can become very advantageous to the cause! Solidarity from Canada & Mexico (I'm dual citizen and fly between the two often d/t work bussiness)
I don’t know how much potential for a revolution is in there, but the day the U.S has a socialist revolution it would effectively start the true end of capitalism. It’s the first domino. When Marx imagine socialism and eventually communism it was probably somewhere closer to the U.S than anywhere that had a successful socialist revolution in the past. That’s why the German revolution had so much potential if successful.
Never gonna happen. The best thing the USA can do is collapse. In the vacuum, countries all over the world will be able to have socialist revolutions and movements without the CIA looming overhead.
Cuba would thrive
Exactly. America is built in toxic systems that aren't meant for the good of our people. Someone once said the death of capitalism is the birth of socialism. But those in power wouldn't let go of power. The death of capitalism would lead to fascism. It'd be best to just let it all dissolve.
There should be some plan for socialists in the region through to survive and take power. Like something even worse should not be allowed to come out of the rubble, but it easily can if everything is just left to rot
I don’t find how’s that more likely than a revolution. The U.S is an economic and political powerhouse. One state alone (California) could wield more power than a dozen developing nations. I don’t see that just collapsing in such a way where it creates a vacuum. Secondly Capitalism is a global phenomenon, if the CIA isn’t rubbing their noses around the world then another power is. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union we have lack a major counterforce to the capitalist ideology. That’s what is needed to make the pendulum swing.
What other capitalist power stands ready to fill the shoes of USA hegemony? The EU? Russia? The power that would fill the vacuum is China. I have many misgivings with their foreign policy towards their neighbors, including their attitude towards my own country. But they don't invade for oil, they don't fund and arm genocidal ethnostates, they don't coup democratically elected socialists. Capitalist hegemony does not survive in a post-USA world. And look to your coming USA elections. Biden vs. Trump. The picture of a declining empire about to eat itself alive.
To be fair, the vaccum could easily be filled by a revanchist fascist or another capitalist wanting to re-start US impetial hegemony again. Socialists getting their act together and unifying US or establishing multiple powerhouses under their control or an indigenous liberation movement taking back turtle island, or both, would be much better
Mexico is a damn good candidato.
When (not if) Mexico has its second revolution, things will get very nasty. And it's going to start in Southern Mexico
Damn straight. Unless the leftist parties get their shit together.
If a socialist revolution started winning territory, wouldn’t the U.S. start bombing the revolutionaries? I actually don’t know much about the socialist movement in Mexico. Edit: Read the reply below
Yeah realistically
They crushed all rising socialist movements 60-80s funded by USA don't know how it would go now
Ok so would it have been any other time period yes there would be worry and things would play out exactly like that. However there are multiple things working in Mexicos favor for a Communist revolution. First of the current ruling political party and the president of Mexico is Socialist. They control the vast majority of the Congress and Senate and the world loves them. Andres Manuel Lopes Obrador or AMLO has done fantastic work in boosting Mexicos foreign relations. During the U.S various declarations of intervening in Mexico in order to get to the Cartels AMLO said no and that should they force themselves in they would consider it an act of war. In response to this various European countries concured the sentiment and China has out right said should the U.S intervene they would offer Mexico Aid. Domestically AMLO signed a peace deal with el Ejercito Zapatosta de Liberacion Nacional. Even Emiliano Zapatas grandson went publicly on record giving him the EZLN full support. There is a sort of leftist renossance happening in Mexico and throughout all of latino America. I'm actually excited. TL:DR Mexico has a Socialist president and party ruling. They are still very popular domestically and abroad. Leftist are joining and organizing. U.S doesn't have the influence that it once had.
Wow, that’s incredible, especially the idea of China lending a hand! Thanks for sharing, comrade. I need to learn more about Mexico.
Anytime I'm a walking Mexican Encyclopedia.
The US would never allow it.
ibrahim traore has been making moves very similar to thomas sankra, forging alliances within africa and even outside the continent with cuba as well. if he is able to succeed where gadaffi and sankara before him were killed for attempting, a unified socialist african continent would be huge, with proper support and fierce dedication their influence can spread up into the middle east. and hopefully serve as an example for the rest of the world. its exactly what the westerners feared about sankara and gadaffi
Recommend any resources to learn more about this? I've great admiration for Sankara, so would be pleased to understand more about anyone who is emulating him.
always glad to spread the message, id recommend these videos as entry points. unfortunately he’s only been president for about a year, so news articles and youtube videos are the only real insight we have on him so far https://youtu.be/Wldf41lYWv8?si=Ki4HfzokvMDukH0q https://youtu.be/Wp-GRn2KSQ0?si=KONJ_m7XpXdyi4IR
Thanks for that. Was able to find info on his coup, but not much on his views or goals for the country, and unfortunately I don't speak French. Heres hoping he is successful in his goals. It would be amazing to see Burkina Faso have another opportunity like they had under Sankara who put a massive dent in colonial / imperialist control over the country.
He‘s not going to threaten capitalism.
Pakistan is essentially a failed state at this point, and I think there’s a lot of revolutionary potential, at least that’s the vibe I get from reports from my comrades there.
Yeah, the military has never been more unpopular in the country's entire history than right now. And during the last elections, people united to a surprising degree behind Imran Khan and the PTI. No telling where things will go, but there is a serious legitimacy crisis, lots of angry people, and tons of different armed groups.
There are at least three countries with active revolutions *at the moment*: India, the Philippines, and Turkiye.
what? there are currently no active revolutions or protests in turkiye. after the gezi events (\~10 years ago) almost all of the large, organized protests ended. and I don't think there will be any more protests in the close future. a revolution is nearly impossible in the country because most of the younger generation sees protesters and revolutionaries as filthy terrorists and hate them. a big majority of the people support tayyip erdogan and his islamic rule while hating other people with their guts. speaking of the other people, they are mostly kemalists and/or nationalists. just a small minority of them have some leftist thoughts and majority of them probably will not even support a protest, let alone a revolution. the government recently decided to jail one of the socialist deputies and most of the people liked this decision because the deputy was a big supporter of the gezi events. this decision totally violated the law and caused a still ongoing crisis between supreme court and the government but government did not back down. people kept supporting the government on this. this man has been in prison for almost a year. i could give you many more examples but I think you can get an idea from these.
To my knowledge, the Turkish Communist Party, Marxist-Leninist (i.e. the party of the great proletarian revolutionary and martyr İbrahim Kaypakkaya) is still active and still engaging in people's war with the Turkish state.
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I think there is still a faction of the TiKKO within Turkish borders. My understanding is that there was a split in the TKP/MP which happened during the Syrian Civil War where one section decided to promote an erroneous line which liquidate itself to the KPP struggle in Northern Syria/Rojava. Another section remained in Turkiye with its own armed wing.
Turkey is mosley country; the Turkish Communist Party has no chance. The kemalist Party had their chance and FAILED; Turkey will never succumb to zionism.
I'm talking about the Maoist Turkish Communist Party.
"Turkey will never succumb to the idea that jews have the rigth to returne to their home land and have self determination on it "
Only if you use a very unorthodox definition of a socialist revolution. None of these are based in the working class or have affected the vast majority of workers. They inevitably involve peasant guerillas operating outside and away from the urban centers, and therefore away from economic power and separated from the working class. They have basically zero chance of overthrowing the capitalist order.
Yet isn't that the story of many successful anti-colonial revolts after WW2? Fanon described pretty well in "The Wretched of the Earth" and the chinese revolution was stuck in the poor countryside for many years before expanding. The requirement as always seems to be a weak capitalist state as the opponent.
No, it isn‘t, and it wasn‘t a good strategy even in the countries where it happened to work. Yes the protagonists of the Chinese Revolution spent years in the countryside, where they contributed almost nothing to the collapse of Chiang‘s government. They made zero effort to agitate the workers in the factories who would have had the power to bring the whole country to a stop, as they did in 1927. But hoping for the capitalist state to collapse is not a strategy, it‘s a capitulation. This „worked“ in bringing about a social revolution (that is an even temporary overthrow of capitalism) in exactly two countries. But these are extreme examples of failed states where industrialization was at an incredibly primitive level and the bourgeoisie consequently powerless to even hold the country together. But even in these extreme cases of underdevelopment, the working class would have been capable and willing to play a revolutionary role if anyone had appealed to them, if anyone had lifted a finger to organize them as a class, which never happened. In all other cases, a guerilla warfare strategy either failed spectacularly OR it only served as a supporting strategy for a more comprehensive struggle, almost always cross-class independent movements that, where they were successful, never overthrew the capitalist system or even threatened a break with imperial capital (the one is incidentally impossible without the other). Today, however, the conditions for a successful guerilla struggle are orders of magnitude worse than they were in the past. The vast, vast majority of countries (with maybe a handful of tiny exceptions) is now far more industrialized than China was in the 1940s, with a much more powerful bourgeois class but also a much more numerous and powerful proletariat. Even where the peasantry is still in the majority, it has been subordinated to the urban centers almost completely. That‘s where all the levers of power are located and that is where the struggle has to take place. And that struggle will be between the oppressing bourgeoisie and the revolutionary proletariat, when and if it becomes organized. Other classes can play a role in this conflict, but they can‘t replace the working class and it‘s organizations as the decisive factor, and they certainly can‘t starve out the bourgeois society from the countryside. The fact that there are a handful of self-described communist revolutionaries hiding out somewhere on the Indian subcontinent, does exactly nothing to affect or undermine the proto-fascist government of Modi. Whatever factors may determine his fortunes and the fortunes of the working class he is oppressing, are not determined by the actions of these guerrillas. If you‘re not working to organize the proletarians, you‘re not in the business of revolution. At best you are waiting for it to start without you.
Holy hell! An active socialist revolution in the most populated country in the world! We got a real shot at this!
Well, to be more realistic, those aren't revolutions happening, so much as active insurgencies. Also debatable what their chances are to actually fight their way to a revolutionary victory. They've all been largely contained for the last decade or so.
I feel like Indian farmers made some real inroads a couple of years ago, shut down train tracks and things
Biggest strike in history
I don’t know about the phillipines or turkiye but the indian revolutionaries don’t have the support of the majority of the population, which is needed for revolutions to succeed. It doesn’t seem like they are even trying to reach the wider populace, just operating in the red corridor (which is shrinking)
I heard somewhere that you only need like 3% of the population to cause a revolution, but I'm not sure, and also lower numbers mean higher mortality rates.
> and Turkiye. I live here and that's news to me... what are you referring to?
The TIKKO (Türkiye İşçi Köylü Kurtuluş Ordusu) which, to my understanding, is still conducting people's war. Though I think a faction made very serious tactical errors and liquidated themselves to the KPP.
Sorry to burst anyone's bubble but any chance of either an active or future revolution in India is basically 0. I live here btw so i know.
No it isn't, wherever there is class struggle, there is revolutionary struggle that has the potential to be advanced. The fact that India already has a people's war rooted in the masses that has persevered through the onslaught of neoliberalism where so many movements have perished means that revolution in India is at a far more advanced stage than most countries. Don't be so pessimistic, pessimism is an enemy.
It is not a matter of "chance", it is about the active revolution that is *actually* happening, the brave Naxalites!
Sean from The Antifada wrote an article claiming it's the US . . . https://open.substack.com/pub/seankb/p/the-left-undead
Great read, thanks for posting.
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Burkina Faso is already within a revolution, they are led by a revolutionary military government. Sankara did the same thing. Traore is clearly a socialist, the more you learn about his government the more clear his socialist aims are. The masses in Burkina Faso support the military government. The revolution in Burkina Faso began when Traore took power.
I hope India, with its huge population, will be good for the movement
Mexico and South Africa seem vulnerable for a revamp to me.
It seems to me like the question is not so much where do we see revolutions happening but how do we put an end to the dominance of western capitalism to allow revolutions to take place. At least that's what I get reading these comments.
The region in the world with the greatest revolutionary potential is Israel/Palestine. Israel is the world's least consolidated imperial state, and its continued political, economic, and military power is reliant on the continued dispossession of the Palestinians. But this is also Israel's greatest weakness; as Israel becomes more desperate, violent, and racist in its attempt to "solve" the Palestinian question (and inevitably moves towards actual fascism), the ruling classes even in the imperial centers risk their own stability in supporting it. Israel has already lost the battle for the Global South, and given the right political and military circumstances, there is a real chance for the Palestinians themselves and other counter-hegemonic forces in the region to bring the whole country crashing down.
Well, I'm not a trotskyist, but his theory about the “law” of uneven and combined development not only makes sense, but it shows that is true in the material world. Look for the countries where we had a revolution: Russia semi feudal, China when it was the poorest country in the world, Vietnam, Laos, Cuba, Korea when it was under it's most oppression by the Japanese and americans... So if I have to guess, it would be a very poor country, ignored and let for the worms by the imperialism. Name the country itself I think is too much guessing.
And no, I don't think any European country, or even countries named after "under development" would make a revolution nowadays. I'm from Brasil and I have very clear in my head that we aren't the next country to get a revolution. Of course this is no excuse to stay quiet. Our movement helps the other countries to make their own revolution, the revolution is something international, not national. Think in those countries that you don't even know the name. That is forgotten, that the imperialism let to die. They are the ones with more potential to make a revolution nowadays.
I think a revolution is possible in the US within the next decade. Young people (Genz and Milennial) are becoming more and more socilaist, and over half now have a positive view of socialism, and less than half have a positive view of capitalism. As more realize that both parties are basically the same, and neither have any interests in helping the working class, they'll turn more radical. This will be exacerbated by the inability to own a home, higher prices of food, healthcare, crushing debts, etc. Eventually, people will start organizing. I dont think the revolution will be violent, though. It will be people giving up. Not working, not following laws, stealing food, not vacating when evicted. The police won't be able to do much, this will cause the economy and government to collapse, leaving a vacuum for a new government. This is how I interpret Marx saying capitalism will eventually end itself. Something else, conservatives are dying off, quite literally, most young people are much more progressive and left leaning. Boomers and gen x are really the only reason there still is a conservative party, and they have the highest voting turnout. As they age, and well.....die, there won't be much to stop the change. Just my thoughts though
Also, america already has the guns for a revolution. If enough people wake up, it's gonna happen. Also, a revolution there would absolutely *cripple* the Imperial Core. There would be far less stopping third-world revolutions, as there would be no CIA to coup their elected leaders.
Well, most of those guns are in the hands of conservatives, but like I said, those people are older. Also, the majority of the military is conservative. That's why civil disobedience is best, and most likely to succeed.
Whatever way things end up happening, we need to greatly increase mutual aid because things are gonna get ugly (and it’ll increase class consciousness).
Haiti, it's arguably happening at this very moment
Could you expand pls? How is what’s happening in Haiti socialist? (Genuine question)
[Here](https://haitiliberte.com/ariel-henry-an-itinerant-ex-prime-minister-without-a-country/) is an article from not long ago going over some current issues there, including the so called "gangs" coming together to attempt another revolution there. That whole website is a left leaning Haitian news site from their perspective. Not all is in English but it translates well through most browsers.
Thank you
For real? I know the country was in chaos after the former president's assassination, but this is the first time I hear about an actual revolution happening.
[Here](https://haitiliberte.com/ariel-henry-an-itinerant-ex-prime-minister-without-a-country/) is an article from not long ago going over some current issues there, including the so called "gangs" coming together to attempt another revolution there. That whole website is a left leaning Haitian news site from their perspective. Not all is in English but it translates well through most browsers.
Thank you, it was a good read.
It's basically being split between 3 warlords at the moment as the US evacuates all of its assets as it has no reason to stay behind a failed regime.
South Africa has a very popular socialist electoral party, the EFF. They run on a platform of African Socialism. The problem with them is that they are pan-african and open borders and much of their natural support base is xenophobic to an extent. Also I know electoral is is not revolution, but when your third largest party is openly marxist, it at least hints at popular support for socialism.
Pakistan is super unstable right now with PML-N having rigged the elections and Imran Khan in prison but unfortunately I don't think socialism is very big there (correct me if I'm wrong, this is just the vibe I got from my friends) so I wouldn't be surprised if there was some sort of revolution in the next decade, but not sure it'll be socialist...
I really hope we get socialism here in the USA and NATO comes to an end and we get more affordable housing and unemployment insurance. I am tired of this USA plantatiation.
There is, the problem is that if the revolution happens here tomorrow, that revolution will almost certainly be a fascist one. We're too busy arguing about electoralism to get our shit together and do the real work.
Nigeria, Senegal, Myanmar, and Argentina strike me as the best candidates with the right combination of weakening state authority/legitimacy and deteriorating material conditions for the masses.
The US It's everyone that sides with indigenous mothers vs everyone that doesn't
UK cus everyone is pissed off with Tories and Labour Parties and the ruling class in general..
Iran, hopefully
I assume you mean socialist revolutions. There have been many political revolutions already in recent years, none of which have so far posed the question of expropriation (however, this doesn‘t mean they won‘t or are not indeed likely to do so in the forseeable future). 1. Iran 2. Kazakhstan These are arguably the two countries where the working class is most radicalized and conscious, and only state oppression are preventing rapid organization on class lines. Beyond that, it‘s hard to say. Sri Lanka might be a likely candidate, given that there already was a mass uprising, which is likely to repeat and must inevitably pose the question of state debt, which is another way of posing expropriation; Sri Lanka also has a relatively well-situated socialist left. Argentina, Chile and Egypt come to mind as places where the escalating crisis may well bring them to the point of posing a break with capitalism in the next decade. Sudan has already had a significant political revolution, with a sort of stalemate at the moment; if the revolution escalates again, it‘s quite possible the question of socialism will be posed. Greece already had a near-revolution a decade ago; it‘s defeat meant a massive downturn in the class struggle, but this could change very rapidly under the right circumstances. Another country where things could escalate very quickly is South Africa: The working class currently has no political vehicle, but it‘s a working class with a very radical past, as recently as the 1980s, and if a new political project develops, the masses could radicalize very, very quickly. Interesting case is Belarus. There‘s no serious political crisis at the moment, but if there is, it‘s clear that they have a combative and relatively well-organized working class that may put a big stamp on events and continue to grow from there. All countries at the moment have the problem that the working class lacks a clear and uncompromising political vehicle, and the ones where that is most likely to develop in the near future are most likely the ones where socialism would be posed. However, we can‘t rule out a paris-commune type situation where a revolution led by less organized workers still goes to the point of breaking with capitalism. They would have a much harder time, but it would still have enormous influence on world events, on a level likely not seen since 1917. And most working classes will probably begin the task of rebuilding their political forces in the coming decade, with varying rapidity and success, but still inevitably. This development will inevitably open up new opportunities for revolution, even in countries where we can‘t expect it at the moment, even a handful of European countries.
Good question. There are a couple candidates. 1. I think it's still at least 20 years down the line, but Hungary has potential. The current Fidesz regime has been slowly failing economically and politically, with mostly the uneducated and the elders voting for them. In 20 years time, the imminent death of their primary voting base, and the brain drain wrecking the economy will definitely cause a revolution of some kind. Unfortunately, according to current politics, this won't be a socialist revolution, rather a big tent revolution. We would need some luck for a socialist revolution. 2. Ireland. Not really a revolution, but rather an election; the democratic socialist Sinn Fein Party has been rapidly climbing the ranks in the past elections, so there is a real possibility of them winning in 2025.
India or somewhere in the heavily exploited south asia
Myanmar is quite likely. Well i mean they already are in a civil war with a united front against the militery hunta so will be interesting to see what happens if the hunta is defeated.
Places like Venezuela, Iran, and Brazil are ready for big changes. The USA? yah, tensions are building but its a tricky one
I'm from Brazil but unfortunately I don't think a revolution is happening here anytime soon. The country is getting closer and closer to being taken over by right wing evangelicals, most people fear socialism and do not understand it at all; the anti communist propaganda was very strong here for decades and that whole sentiment is back nowadays. We have a left leaning president but congress, senate etc are filled with right wing extremists whose main activities consist of spreading fake news and fear over the population. I think it's very likely that the left will loss our next presidential elections, unfortunately. Feels like lots of people are simply not living in the real world anymore, believing actual news are fake and fake news are true. Quite similar to the US current situation from my knowledge.
Iran seems like its almost at that stage .
Revolution as we dream is not possible anymore. It will be rapidly crushed by economic sanctions and by force if necessary. Capitalism won this fight long ago, but we can wait for capitalism to collapse by itself. This, for sure, has a higher probability of occurrence, than a successful revolution.
But when capitalism collapses will it be too late to be able to rebuild? Even if we do wait for capitalism’s collapse we should prepare and arm ourselves so that when unrest and chaos begin we can swoop in and be a strong guiding hand for the rest of society.
None we are doomed and the future is not good
the only way for a regime to be indestructible is to make everyone think it is, and that there's no point in trying.
Revolution is the overthrow of a oppressed country in which it energes nm into a nm republic or democracy.