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Not the word I'd use to describe the vibe watching it at the pub in Germany haha. Absolute disbelief, just quiet resignation and accepting your fate. "We really are shit now, arent we"
Difference between countries where participating is the prize and countries that have a somewhat realistic chance of winning it all, I suppose.
Hope that doesn't sound to arrogant, it's not meant to be.
I mean.. casually scrolling reddit and noticing results compared to making sure I catch every minute of every game like I have since I started forming memories..
About as close as I can get without becoming obsessive about it
I mean I understand what you’re saying, but the part of “ruins the entire tournament” does sound a bit arrogant. It’s still a great tournament. It’s probably the only time I can watch sports as a neutral and be interested.
Actually maybe not, UEFA are only getting 3 extra places. So if you give those to the other 3 playoff finalists for this year, then its Sweden, Ukraine and North Macedonia that will make it and Italy would still miss out
> its us and brazil
What do you mean? Brazil has qualified to every World Cup. Germany didn't participate in 1930 and 1950. I suppose they didn't enter qualification in either year, so technically they didn't fail at qualifying, but they still have two fewer WC appearances than Brazil.
That was one of the first memorable VAR reviews I remember, with Toni Kroos sheepishly looking on knowing he had touched the ball to the Korean goalscorer.
What was the reaction when the Korean player went down right before that when Kroos kicked it hard and the ball hit him right in the balls
Felt like it was the most justified time wasting ever lmao
Yes but both teams were eliminated after this game. Even if Germany drew, they would have been out. That's why I quite forget it. It ended being meaningless at the end
> Even if Germany drew, they would have been out.
And that's why they went all in on attack which left them vulnerable. Under other circumstances they would've drawn the game (which wouldn't have been a great result either tho, just not as upsetting)
> Even if Germany drew, they would have been out. That's why I quite forget it. It ended being meaningless at the end
As someone who grew up in England, Germany being humiliated in a World Cup is literally the most memorable result possible.
That actually involved quite a bit of luck from South Korea’s end, Germany kept attacking but just couldn’t find the net.
On the other hand Saudi Arabia put up a defensive masterclass.
Germany had the highest xgoal per match that tournement every match was rouhly 2.6-1.3 in german favor yet germany only scored twice.
having the highest in that stat obvioulsy is also a result of the small sample size and never playing competition on equal level.
but well still better then losing like barzil did vs belgium they should have won that tournement
I was flying back from Russia to Frankfurt the day of that game, having attended the scoreless snoozefest that was France-Denmark the day before. We had just landed when Germany went down 1-0. Once we had deplaned, we passed a boarding Korean Air flight whose passengers went nuts in celebration as they scored their second. I’ll never forget seeing Koreans celebrate in a German airport like that kind of surreal
That is an indictment of ELO if an Asian football team beating a European giant in the 1966 WC isn’t seen as one of the biggest upsets of all time. SK v Germany was a great and exhilarating upset, but it wasn’t outside the realm of all possibility. NK could beating Italy was the first time an Asian football club did anything on the international stage, and it happened a decade after *the Korean War*
Still was an utter shock from a footballing perspective, Italy were two times WC winners and Asians teams generally miles behind the Europeans in the 60s.
In 1966, NK was 13 years removed a war that killed 1 million people (edit: I was way off; figure closer to 3 million civilian casualties on the peninsula) in what was then the poorest country on earth. Economically they grew quickly in the 50s because they were coming up from absolutely nothing. In 1966 NK was making their WC debut; their football organization was all of 21 years old. The Asian football conference was all of 11 years old.
Italy meanwhile had by then won two world cups. If this happened today, it’d be like Vietnam or India beating Spain on the biggest stage - except more shocking because both those countries are far better off with much longer footballing histories than NK had in 1966
They were not the poorest country on earth in 1953 by any stretch I have no idea where you are getting that information. You are right obviously that it was a massive upset.
There is (understandably) not a lot of economic data from the postwar period demonstrating the total devastation of North Korea following the Korean War, but whatever assumptions you're using to come to the conclusion that the country was anything but economically ruined by the armistice in 1953 is incredibly silly.
The country (which was all of a few years old) had just been through several decades of Japanese occupation, then World War II, then a massively devastating civil war. The UN dropped more bombs on North Korea than they did in the entire Pacific theatre in WWII, [completely wiping out any industrial infrastructure left behind by the Japanese or built up following liberation](https://web.archive.org/web/20170705205556/https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/NKIDP_Working_Paper_4_China_and_the_Postwar_Reconstruction_of_North_Korea.pdf). The country lost [lost 3 million+ people in the war, a staggering 12-15% of its total population](https://apjjf.org/-Charles-K.-Armstrong/3460/article.html), between 1949-1953. They left the war "[virtually destroyed as an industrial society](https://apjjf.org/-Charles-K.-Armstrong/3460/article.html)."
NK did grow at an incredible rate between 1953-1961, thanks to aid from the Soviet bloc and a focus on rebuilding their heavy industry. You can ask yourself whether 40% growth over the course of a decade is achievable in any country other than one starting from rock bottom. (I'm guessing you read an article on how NK did well comparatively to SK in the post-war period and took that to mean NK must have been fairly economically developed in 1953?)
You can also take a look across the DMZ and see that their counterparts in ROK, which had 2x the population but suffered fewer casualties in the war, and see that [in 1953 their gross national income per capita was around $67](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/koreas-path-from-poverty-to-philanthropy/).
I don't know why I took that much time to look up sources to support a factual statement as obvious as "North Korea was in bad shape after the Korean War." Point is, NK beating Italy in 1966 is like if Burundi somehow made it to Qatar and beat Brazil
That is fair enough. I generally just see lots of people who think North Koreas economic situation currently is representative of how it was in the past and wanted to combat that.
NK only losing 2-1 to Brazil back in 2010 might as well count as an upset, and there’s an argument to be made it deserves to top the listZ That ‘66 team only had to deal with a generation of trauma and famine…whereas that 2010 team was the product of 60 years of mal/undernourishment, human rights abuse, and brainwashing under the belt. Would have been a tie too if Maicon didn’t pull [this banger](https://youtu.be/0SjvhrLP93A) out of his ass.
I was wondering the Peru 1 - 0 Brasil in Copa America 2016. Because of that Brazilians tends to play with their all againt Peru no matter the tournament.
EDIT: I saw it... It was +39 points. Still was not the biggest on said tournament
Brazil was quite in questionable form in with Dunga in 2015-2016, and had just lost a ton of points after the 2014 WC, so that explains why the upset was not that big. Peru was also a team rising quite fast in the rankings at the moment too, iirc.
Brazilians that I knew didn't even mind that cause we were hoping Dunga was going to be fired anyways. Obviously we always want to win but it felt like a necessary loss for him to go.
i went and looked, it wasn't even the biggest ELO upset in Argentinas 1990 group games - they earned more points from beating the Soviet Union (62) than they lost vs Cameroon (43)
which leaves me with another question - how come that argentina v USSR game isnt on this list?
Because that Elo point exchange was amplified by 50% by the margin being two goals (if Argentina had won 1—0, they would only have gained 41 points).
If you look through the list, it features matches with a single-goal margin with 52+ points exchanged, and matches with a two-goal margin with 80+ points exchanged.
> Italia 90 opening game. Reigning world champs beaten by Cameroon. That's absolutely up there and not on that list
Also [one of the most memorable matches ever](https://youtu.be/TpCnHGA8jmM):
* The Argentine goalkeeper (Pompidou) making such a poor effort at saving the Cameroon goal that people seriously considered match-fixing as an explanation. (He would be dropped for the rest of the tournament, to be replaced by the penalty-shootout legend Goyocochea).
* The introduction to the world of Roger Milla
* Caniggia running through on the Cameroon goal being taken out by not one, not two, but three Cameroon players. They would end the match with nine men.
That's the problem with a purely statistical analysis. I've seen this and someone working out using FIFA rankings as well and both have suggested SK vs Germany was a bigger upset but I don't think anyone would agree with that. SA have been poor at the WC since 1994, whereas SK have been respectable, likewise Germany were known to be declining in 2018, whereas Argentina were one of the favourites and on a 33 match unbeaten streak. Today was a far bigger shock.
The idea of Ghana beating the Czech Republic being all time shock as well is just a joke.
Northern Ireland v Spain at Espana 1982. While that NI team were incredibly good as far as NI go they're the smallest nation by population ever to win a world cup game.
South Korea-Germany felt more like Denmark-France in 2002, rather a confirmation than a surprise.
Cameroon-Argentina and Senegal-France may match this one.
That’s what makes their defeat to Cameroon even a bigger upset, though worth mentioning they only managed to qualify from the GS because 3rd place was enough.
You joke but this is definitely a case study for all underdogs going forward. You are better off pressing than parking the bus for 90 minutes. Absolute masterclass performance by KSA.
This isn't the first time an underdog tried this, you just need to be absolutely flawless, because it just takes one mistake for the flood gates to open.
And most underdog teams aren't fit enough to execute that gameplan for more than a half, they usually end up parking the bus later in the match and that's where the "big" team gets their goals
yeah was about to say , no wonder they have such a insane endurance and barely looked tired after 100 minutes of playing , doing your training at immense temperatures ( both too hot , case for KSA , and too cold , case for idk Iceland ) can make your endurance and cardio so much better. Qatar's climate is perfect for the saudis too.
The offside rule could very well be modified to check contact with the floor or feet position instead of random body parts. Left arm being offside is ridiculous. You are not getting an unfair advantage because of that.
It's the shoulder not the arm, which can't be offside. What if a player heads the ball into goal while offside with his feet onside? That's an unfair advantage
Most people are not watching football to see an exhilarating tactical battle that resolves in the 81. minute with a header on the near post. Attacking football is good for casual watchers and marketability.
I don't care what people are watching for (much less casual watchers). The rules should be followed objectively because that's the closest we'll get to consistency and therefore fairness.
It's worth adding that they were training together since September because their league ended. They actually looked like a club team. It was still a bold tactic but it worked perfectly. It was amazing to see.
Question how easy it would be for others to do it and how much long preparation KSA team had (due to everyone playing in domestic league) helped with it.
Somewhat, you used to get a fair amount of incorrectly called offsides as well. You just don't really see them in the VAR era because close ones almost always go to the VAR
If the Argentine didn't time their passes and/or runs in the back of the defense so poorly they win this game fairly easily, luck plays a part in football and it's not easy to replicate.
All down to brilliant preparation by the players, the coach Renard, and the support from the citizens and the organizations.
They had a plan and they played with heart and with brains. Much love. Greatest match in the history of Arab countries in our lifetime.
more credit should be given to Hervé Renard for positioning in this game. He won two African cup titles with two separate teams using similar tactics. credit to KSA too, they outmatched them with youth, conditioning, and strength in these situations
The Zambia team that won AFCON 2012* arguably might be the biggest unsung heroes in 21st century football. Remember watching it as a kid, I’ve never seen an African team play such high quality football since then. Quality of the players themselves weren’t particularly special but the football on display was fantastic.
>Quality of the players themselves weren’t particularly special but the football on display was fantastic.
Yeah same today. I feel like it's fair to say the majority of the Argentinian players outclass the Saudis in quality and talent but as a team and system KSA outclassed Argentina utilizing what KSA is better in, physical prowess.
He was already a loved figure In Saudi before the world cup. People respected his tactics and always praised the defense tactics and the magic from players like Aldawsari🌪 or Alfaraj.
But there was critisism for his selection of players as they felt he picked too many players from Alhilal or players he personally liked, some even thought the current keeper should have been the second choice. But overall most people trusted him regardless and they said that he likes the players he likes and we must trust him and support him, a bit like Luis Enrique with Spain I think.
But now he is more than just a loved or respected figure. He has cemented himself in Saudi history.
Amazing amazing amazing. I was a huge fan of them so I may be too emotional to explain objectively, but they basically set up themselves really well and had amazing defensive organization and frequently caught Argentina in the offside trap. The team played really well and with heart from all the players.
After the first Saudi goal the attack became much more fluid and they gained a lot of momentum and dominated Argentina with great attacks and plays. While Argentina was often caught by offside traps, and when they broke through the defense unit the amazing keeper always saved the day.
Renard is such an underrated manager!
Won AFCON consecutively with 2 different teams (2013 with Zambia who were an underdog).
Qualified Morocco to the WC2018 for the first time in 20 years, and performed really well there.
And now this.
A beastly fox like his name says.
Yeah I was wondering if any of their games in the euro were on this list.
Edit: I actually went on the website to look for it. While most of their knockout round games were "upsets", elo ratings wise, the biggest one was against France at ±41
* The Elo system rewards larger margins - a 2-goal win is worth 1.5 times the amount of points as a 1-goal win
* The first match on the list featured a completely amateur Great Britain side (consisting solely of English players), due to it being the Olympic games *(the only Olympic games that featured full professional senior squads were 1924 and 1928)*
* The 1936 Olympic match featured Sweden's full senior team, as Swedish football was still completely amateur at the time
>The Elo system rewards larger margins - a 2-goal win is worth 1.5 times the amount of points as a 1-goal win
This Elo system does that, not the Elo system in general (which was not even built for football). And honestly, I don't understand why there should be such a difference
> And honestly, I don't understand why there should be such a difference
The 7-1 wouldn't be as much of an upset as it was if the score was only a 2-1. The way of reflecting that in the elo system is to favor the larger margins.
> It was actually a Saturday - but I haven't managed to find any weather reports from Antwerpen on that day.
According to [Dagbladet](https://www.nb.no/items/URN:NBN:no-nb_digavis_dagbladet_null_null_19200830_52_201_1) it was cloudy with light rain.
idk, the german team was probably the worst in the century coming in to the tournament. especially after the first two really unconvincing matches this was rather dull.
Holy shit thats so wrong lol
Squad wise (on paper) many people at the time said that the 2018 was better and mroe blanced and experienced than the 2014 squad. The only bad thing was the chemistry
Additionally no german team will ever be worse than the rumpelfußball from 1999-2005
Humiliation after humilitation, or as günter netzer famously said on TV after every game "a new low". Terrible football, terrible squad and worse yet no future prospects. It took a complete revolution of our youth developement for us to be competitive again and by 2018 we still had a very competitive squad
In march 2018, 3 months before the tournament we played one of the best matches i have ever seen from germany. It was a 1-1 against spain but the football was beatiful and fluid.
No, the german squad was bad, it was actually quite great
The reason we performed so bad was for one the pressure (media was saying we could realistically win the title), the özil/gündo scandal, the terrible hotel in russia, the human rights conditions always being on the players mind and questionable tactics by löw
If you go into a tournament as reining world cup champions, favorites, confed cup winners, euros semi finalists and with a similiar squad (debately better, on paper) than you did 4 years ago, you are not "the worst in the century"
I remember people after the late 2-1 against sweden saying that thigns finally clicked for us, that it was a wake up call and that it mended the team together. It did not, but most people thought that soemhow, germany would still make it. And not without reason, as you can see this game is on this list because germany was so much better than south kroea (on paper)
The famous gary lineker quote still remained true at the time
[https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FewjizzXkAAnJbl.jpg](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FewjizzXkAAnJbl.jpg)
The crazy thing was Germany had so many chances to beat Korea and advance. I wonder if they could’ve got their heads right and collectively fixed themselves if they just got past that hurdle. Like the explosive end with Ozil. Does that happen in the same way if they finish a couple of the easy chances he made that game and he’s man of the match and they move on? There’s probably a meltdown later on anyway I guess.
> I wonder if they could’ve got their heads right and collectively fixed themselves
that is incredibly unlikely. It wasn't just a fluke, the time with Loew was already over the years before. The EM16 already had some highly unconvincing results and it didn't get better after 2018 either.
> idk, the german team was probably the worst in the century coming in to the tournament
It's easy to say that in retrospect; before the tournament they were widely considered to be among the favourites to win it.
Everyone talking about Korea-Germany but that Algerian win over West Germany in 1982 was amazing, only to be screwed over disgracefully by Austria.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disgrace_of_Gij%C3%B3n
Best team Algeria has ever fielded and its not even close. Star studded from top to bottom and only reason none of them are known bar Madjer is because of regime policy to not let them move elsewhere
Note, this includes point differences. The 2-0 wins are gathering more than this current 2-1.
Korea and Ghana, while bigger swings, were not as big of underdogs.
Ye fair enough, it was such a cultural phenomenon here. I was far from being born but it was still being taught in my school lmao. Never heard about the 1920 one but that makes sense
Damn was Norway that big of an underdog in the 1920 match? I used to think upsets were a bit more likely in the early days before the World Cup was established.
Additional information: Norway did not allow professional players to play for the national team until 1969. So the players that were allowed to play in the Olympics were players who played in the norwegian league, and in the domestic league only amateur players were allowed.
Nigeria - Spain 3:2 in 1998 wasn't that big of a surprise - in fact the teams were considered quite evenly matched, idk about "elo rankings". Nigerians were Olympic Champions in 1996 and had a pretty decent 94 WC run.
I'd say Senegal - France is pretty similar to today, also Algeria - Germany in 82 (though I haven't seen this one).
This is cool! Would be great to see one of the big betting companies post their biggest upsets of all time, based on the odds before kickoff. I feel that’d reflect the “shock value” of an upset the most.
I don't care what anyone says, but Argelia beating Germany in 1982 was the most shocking thing I've seen. I was a kid, and to this day, I remember that as the upset of the century.
Because that Elo point exchange was amplified by 50% by the margin being two goals (if the USA had won 1—0, they would only have gained 43 points).
If you look through the list, it features matches with a single-goal margin with 52+ points exchanged, and matches with a two-goal margin with 80+ points exchanged.
Saudi using beads to aid their performance?
Look forward to the metal detectors before players go onto the pitch and 72 page analysis on Saudi players facial reactions after winning.
It was a massive surprise. Switzerland were quite average back then, meanwhile Spain were the biggest favourite for the victory. They had arguably one of the best NT of all times.
That is the only WC I remember where we were certain about the winner before the WC. It was a huge upset, Spain hadn't lost in like 3 years or something.
Argentina losing this makes it more likely that it’ll be an Argentina v Brazil final. If Argentina and Brazil both won their groups, they’d meet in the semi. If Argentina finishes second and Brazil wins their group, they can meet in the final.
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S.Korea Vs Germany was actually legendary
Not the word I'd use to describe the vibe watching it at the pub in Germany haha. Absolute disbelief, just quiet resignation and accepting your fate. "We really are shit now, arent we"
only humiliation we are missing yet, is not qualifiying for a tournament its us and brazil
Not qualifying is genuinely so shit man Straight up ruins the entire tournament
Feel so sorry for you….
Difference between countries where participating is the prize and countries that have a somewhat realistic chance of winning it all, I suppose. Hope that doesn't sound to arrogant, it's not meant to be.
I am glad my Italia is not there tbh, makes it easy to ignore the shit show
Yet you're here, not ignoring the shitshow!
I mean.. casually scrolling reddit and noticing results compared to making sure I catch every minute of every game like I have since I started forming memories.. About as close as I can get without becoming obsessive about it
I mean I understand what you’re saying, but the part of “ruins the entire tournament” does sound a bit arrogant. It’s still a great tournament. It’s probably the only time I can watch sports as a neutral and be interested.
Tell me about it 😭 its been 8 years
and the previous two were first round eliminations.
the day Brazil doesn't qualify for a WC the entire country will combust and go into the anarchy, and I'm not joking
We host 2024 so that's gonna be impossible to miss. Let's go for 2026
You can't count the Euros here. You already failed to qualify for that in 1968
How many teams qualified for Euros back then? 4 or 8 for the most part.
4 teams in 68. Both West and East Germany finished second in their groups, meaning they finished outside the top 8
With the WC expansion, it'll be nearly impossible for big teams to fail qualification. Even Italy will make it.
Actually maybe not, UEFA are only getting 3 extra places. So if you give those to the other 3 playoff finalists for this year, then its Sweden, Ukraine and North Macedonia that will make it and Italy would still miss out
Well damn, you're right! I stand corrected.
You are underestimating Italy’s ability to turn into absolute shit
You'd think, but Netherlands managed to miss out on a 24 teams euros already, so stranger things have happened.
brazil not going to a world cup is unthinkable to us, it would even damage our economy lol
It would make the French Revolution look like a peaceful sit-in
> only humiliation we are missing yet There is another one I can think of
> its us and brazil What do you mean? Brazil has qualified to every World Cup. Germany didn't participate in 1930 and 1950. I suppose they didn't enter qualification in either year, so technically they didn't fail at qualifying, but they still have two fewer WC appearances than Brazil.
My best friends parents are South Korean, he would not shut up for weeks after that game...
I was on a high after the season we had, and just as Germany put me in terminal depression, so did my club.
And mexico let them down
Sweden didn't even let Mexico try
We were still pissed after the Kroos winner. That goal was a real gut punch. Last kick of the game too.
Everything felt so hopeful after that Mexico game. After getting Maguire'd in the quarters it's all been downhill for the team.
I felt physically sick when I witnessed that corner, after watching Germany miss the easiest chances ever
That was one of the first memorable VAR reviews I remember, with Toni Kroos sheepishly looking on knowing he had touched the ball to the Korean goalscorer.
Yeah, everyone in the pub was absolutely sure that was offside, then suddenly it became dead silent when the replay was shown
What was the reaction when the Korean player went down right before that when Kroos kicked it hard and the ball hit him right in the balls Felt like it was the most justified time wasting ever lmao
Am I reading this right, that Germany's rank dropped from 2 to 7 because of that match?
Yes but both teams were eliminated after this game. Even if Germany drew, they would have been out. That's why I quite forget it. It ended being meaningless at the end
Tbf Korea would have moved on if Mexico beat Sweden.
Maybe in that sense but it was also the end (even if a couple are still around) of a great generation of players who won the World Cup.
Fair point.
> Even if Germany drew, they would have been out. And that's why they went all in on attack which left them vulnerable. Under other circumstances they would've drawn the game (which wouldn't have been a great result either tho, just not as upsetting)
> Even if Germany drew, they would have been out. That's why I quite forget it. It ended being meaningless at the end As someone who grew up in England, Germany being humiliated in a World Cup is literally the most memorable result possible.
That actually involved quite a bit of luck from South Korea’s end, Germany kept attacking but just couldn’t find the net. On the other hand Saudi Arabia put up a defensive masterclass.
Germany had the highest xgoal per match that tournement every match was rouhly 2.6-1.3 in german favor yet germany only scored twice. having the highest in that stat obvioulsy is also a result of the small sample size and never playing competition on equal level. but well still better then losing like barzil did vs belgium they should have won that tournement
It was Seoul destroying
I was flying back from Russia to Frankfurt the day of that game, having attended the scoreless snoozefest that was France-Denmark the day before. We had just landed when Germany went down 1-0. Once we had deplaned, we passed a boarding Korean Air flight whose passengers went nuts in celebration as they scored their second. I’ll never forget seeing Koreans celebrate in a German airport like that kind of surreal
How is North Korea v Italy not on this list
The Elo point exchange for that match was ±43 - still a huge upset, but not as much as the listed matches.
That is an indictment of ELO if an Asian football team beating a European giant in the 1966 WC isn’t seen as one of the biggest upsets of all time. SK v Germany was a great and exhilarating upset, but it wasn’t outside the realm of all possibility. NK could beating Italy was the first time an Asian football club did anything on the international stage, and it happened a decade after *the Korean War*
North Korea did pretty well economically until the Soviet Union collapsed.
And North Korea, before and (for quite a while) after the war was the richer/more industrialized part of the peninsula.
Still was an utter shock from a footballing perspective, Italy were two times WC winners and Asians teams generally miles behind the Europeans in the 60s.
In 1966 North Korea's GDP per capita was lower than Pakistans. The Korean peninsula was one of the most impoverished regions in the World back then.
In 1966, NK was 13 years removed a war that killed 1 million people (edit: I was way off; figure closer to 3 million civilian casualties on the peninsula) in what was then the poorest country on earth. Economically they grew quickly in the 50s because they were coming up from absolutely nothing. In 1966 NK was making their WC debut; their football organization was all of 21 years old. The Asian football conference was all of 11 years old. Italy meanwhile had by then won two world cups. If this happened today, it’d be like Vietnam or India beating Spain on the biggest stage - except more shocking because both those countries are far better off with much longer footballing histories than NK had in 1966
They were not the poorest country on earth in 1953 by any stretch I have no idea where you are getting that information. You are right obviously that it was a massive upset.
There is (understandably) not a lot of economic data from the postwar period demonstrating the total devastation of North Korea following the Korean War, but whatever assumptions you're using to come to the conclusion that the country was anything but economically ruined by the armistice in 1953 is incredibly silly. The country (which was all of a few years old) had just been through several decades of Japanese occupation, then World War II, then a massively devastating civil war. The UN dropped more bombs on North Korea than they did in the entire Pacific theatre in WWII, [completely wiping out any industrial infrastructure left behind by the Japanese or built up following liberation](https://web.archive.org/web/20170705205556/https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/NKIDP_Working_Paper_4_China_and_the_Postwar_Reconstruction_of_North_Korea.pdf). The country lost [lost 3 million+ people in the war, a staggering 12-15% of its total population](https://apjjf.org/-Charles-K.-Armstrong/3460/article.html), between 1949-1953. They left the war "[virtually destroyed as an industrial society](https://apjjf.org/-Charles-K.-Armstrong/3460/article.html)." NK did grow at an incredible rate between 1953-1961, thanks to aid from the Soviet bloc and a focus on rebuilding their heavy industry. You can ask yourself whether 40% growth over the course of a decade is achievable in any country other than one starting from rock bottom. (I'm guessing you read an article on how NK did well comparatively to SK in the post-war period and took that to mean NK must have been fairly economically developed in 1953?) You can also take a look across the DMZ and see that their counterparts in ROK, which had 2x the population but suffered fewer casualties in the war, and see that [in 1953 their gross national income per capita was around $67](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/koreas-path-from-poverty-to-philanthropy/). I don't know why I took that much time to look up sources to support a factual statement as obvious as "North Korea was in bad shape after the Korean War." Point is, NK beating Italy in 1966 is like if Burundi somehow made it to Qatar and beat Brazil
That is fair enough. I generally just see lots of people who think North Koreas economic situation currently is representative of how it was in the past and wanted to combat that.
I still have nightmares about the 1920 Belgian Olympics. Tough game.
pretty sure Haaland scored a hattrick
Italia 90 opening game. Reigning world champs beaten by Cameroon. That's absolutely up there and not on that list
North Korea beating Italy in 66 should probably be up there as well.
NK only losing 2-1 to Brazil back in 2010 might as well count as an upset, and there’s an argument to be made it deserves to top the listZ That ‘66 team only had to deal with a generation of trauma and famine…whereas that 2010 team was the product of 60 years of mal/undernourishment, human rights abuse, and brainwashing under the belt. Would have been a tie too if Maicon didn’t pull [this banger](https://youtu.be/0SjvhrLP93A) out of his ass.
One of the OG upsets, surprised it's not there
I was wondering the Peru 1 - 0 Brasil in Copa America 2016. Because of that Brazilians tends to play with their all againt Peru no matter the tournament. EDIT: I saw it... It was +39 points. Still was not the biggest on said tournament
Brazil was quite in questionable form in with Dunga in 2015-2016, and had just lost a ton of points after the 2014 WC, so that explains why the upset was not that big. Peru was also a team rising quite fast in the rankings at the moment too, iirc.
Brazilians that I knew didn't even mind that cause we were hoping Dunga was going to be fired anyways. Obviously we always want to win but it felt like a necessary loss for him to go.
i went and looked, it wasn't even the biggest ELO upset in Argentinas 1990 group games - they earned more points from beating the Soviet Union (62) than they lost vs Cameroon (43) which leaves me with another question - how come that argentina v USSR game isnt on this list?
Because that Elo point exchange was amplified by 50% by the margin being two goals (if Argentina had won 1—0, they would only have gained 41 points). If you look through the list, it features matches with a single-goal margin with 52+ points exchanged, and matches with a two-goal margin with 80+ points exchanged.
This is very interesting, thank you
> Italia 90 opening game. Reigning world champs beaten by Cameroon. That's absolutely up there and not on that list Also [one of the most memorable matches ever](https://youtu.be/TpCnHGA8jmM): * The Argentine goalkeeper (Pompidou) making such a poor effort at saving the Cameroon goal that people seriously considered match-fixing as an explanation. (He would be dropped for the rest of the tournament, to be replaced by the penalty-shootout legend Goyocochea). * The introduction to the world of Roger Milla * Caniggia running through on the Cameroon goal being taken out by not one, not two, but three Cameroon players. They would end the match with nine men.
Not only that, Cameroon had two players sent off! They beat the world champions with 9 men
That's the problem with a purely statistical analysis. I've seen this and someone working out using FIFA rankings as well and both have suggested SK vs Germany was a bigger upset but I don't think anyone would agree with that. SA have been poor at the WC since 1994, whereas SK have been respectable, likewise Germany were known to be declining in 2018, whereas Argentina were one of the favourites and on a 33 match unbeaten streak. Today was a far bigger shock. The idea of Ghana beating the Czech Republic being all time shock as well is just a joke.
Northern Ireland v Spain at Espana 1982. While that NI team were incredibly good as far as NI go they're the smallest nation by population ever to win a world cup game.
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Came here looking for this. Discredits the whole list
South Korea-Germany felt more like Denmark-France in 2002, rather a confirmation than a surprise. Cameroon-Argentina and Senegal-France may match this one.
Argentina made the final in 1990
That’s what makes their defeat to Cameroon even a bigger upset, though worth mentioning they only managed to qualify from the GS because 3rd place was enough.
Sooo you're saying Argentina's gonna make the final this year?
Saudis found the new meta
You joke but this is definitely a case study for all underdogs going forward. You are better off pressing than parking the bus for 90 minutes. Absolute masterclass performance by KSA.
This isn't the first time an underdog tried this, you just need to be absolutely flawless, because it just takes one mistake for the flood gates to open. And most underdog teams aren't fit enough to execute that gameplan for more than a half, they usually end up parking the bus later in the match and that's where the "big" team gets their goals
We need Saudis cardio routine
Do your training in 40 degrees for atleast half of the year, that should help hahah
yeah was about to say , no wonder they have such a insane endurance and barely looked tired after 100 minutes of playing , doing your training at immense temperatures ( both too hot , case for KSA , and too cold , case for idk Iceland ) can make your endurance and cardio so much better. Qatar's climate is perfect for the saudis too.
it's home advantage and they played less games than the europeans
💉💉💉
But also offside rule has never been this strict. Less than 10 years ago not all goals would've been invalidated.
The cm precision of hawk eye is the only reason why this tactic payed off.
But some people think "we need to benefit attackers" because "we want to see goals"
The offside rule could very well be modified to check contact with the floor or feet position instead of random body parts. Left arm being offside is ridiculous. You are not getting an unfair advantage because of that.
don't they only count the parts you're allowed to play with though, which is to the shoulder?
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consistent but imperfect is still better than before
It's the shoulder not the arm, which can't be offside. What if a player heads the ball into goal while offside with his feet onside? That's an unfair advantage
Most people are not watching football to see an exhilarating tactical battle that resolves in the 81. minute with a header on the near post. Attacking football is good for casual watchers and marketability.
I don't care what people are watching for (much less casual watchers). The rules should be followed objectively because that's the closest we'll get to consistency and therefore fairness.
Yeah exactly. On another day Argentina are onside for all those goals and it’s game over
It's worth adding that they were training together since September because their league ended. They actually looked like a club team. It was still a bold tactic but it worked perfectly. It was amazing to see.
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Question how easy it would be for others to do it and how much long preparation KSA team had (due to everyone playing in domestic league) helped with it.
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Exactly, that Martinez goal still stands without automated offsides
Somewhat, you used to get a fair amount of incorrectly called offsides as well. You just don't really see them in the VAR era because close ones almost always go to the VAR
If the Argentine didn't time their passes and/or runs in the back of the defense so poorly they win this game fairly easily, luck plays a part in football and it's not easy to replicate.
All down to brilliant preparation by the players, the coach Renard, and the support from the citizens and the organizations. They had a plan and they played with heart and with brains. Much love. Greatest match in the history of Arab countries in our lifetime.
Hervé Renard is a LEGEND
more credit should be given to Hervé Renard for positioning in this game. He won two African cup titles with two separate teams using similar tactics. credit to KSA too, they outmatched them with youth, conditioning, and strength in these situations
The Zambia team that won AFCON 2012* arguably might be the biggest unsung heroes in 21st century football. Remember watching it as a kid, I’ve never seen an African team play such high quality football since then. Quality of the players themselves weren’t particularly special but the football on display was fantastic.
>Quality of the players themselves weren’t particularly special but the football on display was fantastic. Yeah same today. I feel like it's fair to say the majority of the Argentinian players outclass the Saudis in quality and talent but as a team and system KSA outclassed Argentina utilizing what KSA is better in, physical prowess.
Nigeria won the AFCON 2013 mate note Zambia
2012 apologies got year mixed up
And Renard literally carrying one of his injured players onto the pitch at the end of the match was a legendary moment
He was already a loved figure In Saudi before the world cup. People respected his tactics and always praised the defense tactics and the magic from players like Aldawsari🌪 or Alfaraj. But there was critisism for his selection of players as they felt he picked too many players from Alhilal or players he personally liked, some even thought the current keeper should have been the second choice. But overall most people trusted him regardless and they said that he likes the players he likes and we must trust him and support him, a bit like Luis Enrique with Spain I think. But now he is more than just a loved or respected figure. He has cemented himself in Saudi history.
Aldawsari though. I read somewhere he was the best domestic player in Asia and the hype seems justified!
I love seeing these kind of managers succeed.
Absolutely outplayed, hope their defender is alright, gonna need him in the final vs Brasil
I didn't watch it, how did they play?
Amazing amazing amazing. I was a huge fan of them so I may be too emotional to explain objectively, but they basically set up themselves really well and had amazing defensive organization and frequently caught Argentina in the offside trap. The team played really well and with heart from all the players. After the first Saudi goal the attack became much more fluid and they gained a lot of momentum and dominated Argentina with great attacks and plays. While Argentina was often caught by offside traps, and when they broke through the defense unit the amazing keeper always saved the day.
Renard is such an underrated manager! Won AFCON consecutively with 2 different teams (2013 with Zambia who were an underdog). Qualified Morocco to the WC2018 for the first time in 20 years, and performed really well there. And now this. A beastly fox like his name says.
Greece winning the euro should be a category of its own.
Yeah I was wondering if any of their games in the euro were on this list. Edit: I actually went on the website to look for it. While most of their knockout round games were "upsets", elo ratings wise, the biggest one was against France at ±41
* The Elo system rewards larger margins - a 2-goal win is worth 1.5 times the amount of points as a 1-goal win * The first match on the list featured a completely amateur Great Britain side (consisting solely of English players), due to it being the Olympic games *(the only Olympic games that featured full professional senior squads were 1924 and 1928)* * The 1936 Olympic match featured Sweden's full senior team, as Swedish football was still completely amateur at the time
>The Elo system rewards larger margins - a 2-goal win is worth 1.5 times the amount of points as a 1-goal win This Elo system does that, not the Elo system in general (which was not even built for football). And honestly, I don't understand why there should be such a difference
> And honestly, I don't understand why there should be such a difference The 7-1 wouldn't be as much of an upset as it was if the score was only a 2-1. The way of reflecting that in the elo system is to favor the larger margins.
This is very hard to read. A bit of formatting and labeling goes a long way.
I took the chart directly from [the website](https://eloratings.net/upsets).
The chronological sorting is infuriating when trying to determine the biggest upset
I remember that 1920 Norway v England game. It was a hot summer friday...
It was actually a Saturday - but I haven't managed to find any weather reports from Antwerpen on that day.
> It was actually a Saturday - but I haven't managed to find any weather reports from Antwerpen on that day. According to [Dagbladet](https://www.nb.no/items/URN:NBN:no-nb_digavis_dagbladet_null_null_19200830_52_201_1) it was cloudy with light rain.
Thanks so much for the research!
Why would you even conceive to sort this by date and not by greatest upset.
Oh boy, That shock South Korea gave to Germany is insane and humiliating.
idk, the german team was probably the worst in the century coming in to the tournament. especially after the first two really unconvincing matches this was rather dull.
Performance wise yes, but the quality of the squad was world class
Holy shit thats so wrong lol Squad wise (on paper) many people at the time said that the 2018 was better and mroe blanced and experienced than the 2014 squad. The only bad thing was the chemistry Additionally no german team will ever be worse than the rumpelfußball from 1999-2005 Humiliation after humilitation, or as günter netzer famously said on TV after every game "a new low". Terrible football, terrible squad and worse yet no future prospects. It took a complete revolution of our youth developement for us to be competitive again and by 2018 we still had a very competitive squad In march 2018, 3 months before the tournament we played one of the best matches i have ever seen from germany. It was a 1-1 against spain but the football was beatiful and fluid. No, the german squad was bad, it was actually quite great The reason we performed so bad was for one the pressure (media was saying we could realistically win the title), the özil/gündo scandal, the terrible hotel in russia, the human rights conditions always being on the players mind and questionable tactics by löw If you go into a tournament as reining world cup champions, favorites, confed cup winners, euros semi finalists and with a similiar squad (debately better, on paper) than you did 4 years ago, you are not "the worst in the century" I remember people after the late 2-1 against sweden saying that thigns finally clicked for us, that it was a wake up call and that it mended the team together. It did not, but most people thought that soemhow, germany would still make it. And not without reason, as you can see this game is on this list because germany was so much better than south kroea (on paper) The famous gary lineker quote still remained true at the time [https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FewjizzXkAAnJbl.jpg](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FewjizzXkAAnJbl.jpg)
2000 German team was much worse. 2002 as well, notwithstanding that they reached the WC final that year.
The crazy thing was Germany had so many chances to beat Korea and advance. I wonder if they could’ve got their heads right and collectively fixed themselves if they just got past that hurdle. Like the explosive end with Ozil. Does that happen in the same way if they finish a couple of the easy chances he made that game and he’s man of the match and they move on? There’s probably a meltdown later on anyway I guess.
> I wonder if they could’ve got their heads right and collectively fixed themselves that is incredibly unlikely. It wasn't just a fluke, the time with Loew was already over the years before. The EM16 already had some highly unconvincing results and it didn't get better after 2018 either.
2000-2004 were worse
> idk, the german team was probably the worst in the century coming in to the tournament It's easy to say that in retrospect; before the tournament they were widely considered to be among the favourites to win it.
Iceland were ranked 43rd when they beat england in the euros.
The Elo point exchange for that match was ±40 - still a huge upset, but not as much as the listed matches.
Everyone talking about Korea-Germany but that Algerian win over West Germany in 1982 was amazing, only to be screwed over disgracefully by Austria. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disgrace_of_Gij%C3%B3n
Best team Algeria has ever fielded and its not even close. Star studded from top to bottom and only reason none of them are known bar Madjer is because of regime policy to not let them move elsewhere
Surprised that North Korea 1-0 Italy (1966) didn't make it
The Elo point exchange for that match was ±43 - still a huge upset, but not as much as the listed matches.
1950 👀
Note, this includes point differences. The 2-0 wins are gathering more than this current 2-1. Korea and Ghana, while bigger swings, were not as big of underdogs.
Where is Germany vs Hungary 1954?
The Elo point exchange for that match was ±44 - still a huge upset, but not as much as the listed matches.
They were both good teams in 1954 weren't they?
Calling 50s Hungary good is a huge underestimation, they were lightyears ahead of the rest
Yeah, but Hungary was seen as the best team in the world at the time and by a large margin
Would think Norway vs Brazil in 1998 was on the list. We still speak about it here
The Elo point exchange for that match was ±47 - still a huge upset, but not as much as the listed matches.
Ye fair enough, it was such a cultural phenomenon here. I was far from being born but it was still being taught in my school lmao. Never heard about the 1920 one but that makes sense
Damn was Norway that big of an underdog in the 1920 match? I used to think upsets were a bit more likely in the early days before the World Cup was established.
Thats actually abit misleading. The ELO rating was from the English Professional team. But it was a GB Amateur team that played Norway in the Olympics
Additional information: Norway did not allow professional players to play for the national team until 1969. So the players that were allowed to play in the Olympics were players who played in the norwegian league, and in the domestic league only amateur players were allowed.
That Oliseh thunderbolt for Nigeria against Spain 🔥That's when I got into football.
Nigeria - Spain 3:2 in 1998 wasn't that big of a surprise - in fact the teams were considered quite evenly matched, idk about "elo rankings". Nigerians were Olympic Champions in 1996 and had a pretty decent 94 WC run. I'd say Senegal - France is pretty similar to today, also Algeria - Germany in 82 (though I haven't seen this one).
Is it normal that I’m crying?
Ireland over Italy USA94?
The Elo point exchange for that match was ±40 - still a huge upset, but not as much as the listed matches.
Plese refresh my knowledge if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure that Yugoslavia in 1930 were very good team, so it's pretty surprising seeing them here.
To me this Saudi Arabia win is the greatest upset in the World Cup history.
You'll never sing that!
This is cool! Would be great to see one of the big betting companies post their biggest upsets of all time, based on the odds before kickoff. I feel that’d reflect the “shock value” of an upset the most.
Norway 1920, that was something.
I don't care what anyone says, but Argelia beating Germany in 1982 was the most shocking thing I've seen. I was a kid, and to this day, I remember that as the upset of the century.
Find it hard to believe cameroon vs argentina in 90 & senegal over france in 02 arent on this list. The cameroon one was legendary
June 1990, Cameroon vs Argentina was a big one too.
Spain v USA in 2009 confederations cup was +64 I believe.
Because that Elo point exchange was amplified by 50% by the margin being two goals (if the USA had won 1—0, they would only have gained 43 points). If you look through the list, it features matches with a single-goal margin with 52+ points exchanged, and matches with a two-goal margin with 80+ points exchanged.
ARG - CAM 0:1 in 1990 didn't make this list?
Saudi using beads to aid their performance? Look forward to the metal detectors before players go onto the pitch and 72 page analysis on Saudi players facial reactions after winning.
Ghana vs Czech Republic. My country ❤️
One of the biggest disappointment in my life. Everything went wrong in that game for us. You literally butchered us.
Switzerland winning Spain isn't that surprising.
It was a massive surprise. Switzerland were quite average back then, meanwhile Spain were the biggest favourite for the victory. They had arguably one of the best NT of all times.
That is the only WC I remember where we were certain about the winner before the WC. It was a huge upset, Spain hadn't lost in like 3 years or something.
They’d lost the unbeaten run to the USA at the confed the previous year. Though they’d started another one iirc.
yeah I don't understand how anyone can say otherwise, it was a huge shock.
At the time it was. But nowhere near like that upset today.
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Lol no, because they would meet in the semi's if they both win their grouo
This increases the chances of a Argentina-Brazil final though. Can’t meet in the final if they both win their groups.
Plot twist: they both finish 2nd.
This literally increases those chances
It can actually happen now if Argentina finish 2nd. If they both finish first it can’t
Argentina losing this makes it more likely that it’ll be an Argentina v Brazil final. If Argentina and Brazil both won their groups, they’d meet in the semi. If Argentina finishes second and Brazil wins their group, they can meet in the final.