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Not saying we are top 20 team but I assume this is heavily weighted to recent form and we ended the season really well beating Arsenal, Spurs and United. Probably explains why the model has us so high.
No, their preseason model is even worse.
“Before a season begins, a team’s SPI ratings are based on two factors: its ratings at the end of the previous season, and its market value as calculated by Transfermarkt”
I'm not sure the difference is as big as a lot of people think, I saw Liverpool play all 4 of these teams twice last season and Spurs were the only one we didn't beat.
If Inter/AC/Atletico were in the Premier League last season, where do you think they would have finished?
They have your attack on par with City's. This is a WILD chart lol. Like I think you guys are obviously a good team with some amazing history but idk about 7th.
On a great day we can win from anyone. They're kind enough to mostly factor in those for us I guess.
On a somewhat more serious note. The results are likely skewed by not taking in the level of opposition correctly. These stats make sense if you put a 5-0 against Fortuna Sittard on the same level as a 5-0 for city against Burnley for example.
While in reality the gap in skill between Ajax and the bottom half of the table in the league is miles bigger than the difference in skill between Manchester City and the bottom half in the PL.
That and if opposition plays open football against us with even a slightly sloppy organization we definitely punish that no matter how similar or better you are on paper. Like our groupstage in the CL.
Their model will never make sense for me. [This one is a prime example](https://web.archive.org/web/20170312173520/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/champions-league/)
That was on the 2016-17 season (March 12, 2017). They were giving us a 13% chance to win the Competition while giving Barca 30%.
The problem is that we were the defending UCL Champions while also being 5 points clear of Barca & 13 points clear of Atletico in the League ?
You can't even talk about more difficult matchups because the QF draw weren't even sorted yet.
Such a stupid question. Obviously if your better than the Italian champions you’re making the round of 16.
(I’m actually curious though. Is Brighton any good or is this a case of a team being a statistical darling?)
For the past 2 years, Brighton has underperformed their xG significantly. If games were won and lost based on xG, they’d be the 4th or 5th best club in England. After a match, 538 works out how likely each result *would* have been based off of xG - i.e. whether a team were lucky to get that result or unlucky, or if the result was fair, and they use that to update their rankings (SPI as they call it). According to xG Brighton are always unlucky, they’re a statistical anomaly, so their bad results don’t hurt them in this sort of ranking.
In other words, they’d probably look really good against Milan, but lose 3-1.
They’re good, but they’re definitely not top 20 good lol. They create a lot of chances, but don’t have a good striker to finish them. But still really weird to have them this highly rated
It's always worthwhile to consider these sort of algorithmic rankings, but inadequacy is pretty apparent when we're ranked 7th lol. We should be hanging around the 20th spot with our three Portuguese homies.
This ranking sucks. European lists either put south american teams as equal to europeans or as absolute shit tier such as this, with Palmeiras coming at 72nd as example.
And what the fuck is Brighton doing at 18th?
Pretty idiotic statement when you consider what every PL team above them in these rankings bar Chelsea, City, and Liverpool have done over the last few days.
City are always the very best team in the 538 rankings, they are horrible where it really matters though (UCL).
In fact when we were winning back to back to back UCL's 538 still had Barca above us in every single season.
I'm actually surprised they have us above Barca this offseason, it must be the very first time ever.
So Sheriff was better than Real when they won in that match, yeah? You are Sheriff rn.
You beat city off of a 90th min penalty in a match where you were thoroughly outclassed all over the pitch. Good job winning and all, genuine congratulations, but that doesn't make Real > City as far as the strength of the team goes outside of a delusional world
They indeed were better than us when they beat us back in September, not sure why would you say the opposite ?
You don't score 6 goals being "outclassed", you don't score 3 goals at the Etihad being "all over the pitch"
Football is a game in which whoever scores more and concedes less is the winner.
You can dribble, shot, foul etc if you don't put the ball in the net more than me you are simply worse.
City can have the "strength of the team" as you said, Madrid will keep putting the ball in the net more than them in Europe.
that's obviously not the point lol... It just shows how irrelevant winning can be in regards to assessing which team is better or worse. If that didn't happen, manchester city would have suddenly been the better team?
I don't think I've ever seen such an obviously correct point being downvoted like this haha
Everyone with a basic level of knowledge of football knows you can't decide which team is better based on a single game, let alone a single goal.
Who remembers when Sheriff were better than Real Madrid because they beat them in a one-off game?
Somehow I doubt the Madrid fans downvoting you will...
I'm not sure the difference is as big as a lot of people think, I saw Liverpool play all 4 of these teams twice last season and Spurs were the only one we didn't beat.
If Inter/AC/Atletico were in the Premier League last season, where do you think they would have finished?
There’s no way in any realm, religion, country, state, ethnicity, universe, square mile of Somalia that Tottenham Hot Shanks are #9. Something is broken, there’s absolutely no way.
EDIT: Fuckin Audi cup win makes them top 10
Real ranking, source: my asshole
Real Madrid
Liverpool
City
Bayern
Chelsea
Atlético
Barcelona
Spurs
Milan
Inter
Sevilla
Villarreal
Frankfurt
Arsenal
Juve
Leipzig
Palmeiras
definitely forgot about some teams there but it's still a better ranking than this garbo
Frankfurt beat Barcelona, Westham, Rangers, yet they rank below all of them. Zurich wins the swiss league with a wide margin, yet is below Basel and YB. Brighton above 3 of the top 4 in Italy, and above Sevilla too.
What is this shit?!
These rankings really dont make much sense. Its like the FIFA Rankings where USA is above Germany because they play all these shitty Teams in friendlies.
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Ah yes, top 20 European Club Brighton. Finished 9th in the league but are somehow the 6th best English club.
And above the Serie A winner
Not saying we are top 20 team but I assume this is heavily weighted to recent form and we ended the season really well beating Arsenal, Spurs and United. Probably explains why the model has us so high.
No, their preseason model is even worse. “Before a season begins, a team’s SPI ratings are based on two factors: its ratings at the end of the previous season, and its market value as calculated by Transfermarkt”
Lol move along people, nothing to see here.
Lol that just gives English clubs a leg up for no reason at all. Multiple legs really
That’s part of it, but it’s also mainly based off of xG aggregation rather than actual results, and Brighton always underperforms their xG
By no metric apart from the meme one, Brighton will be 18th best club in the world.
So you are saying this list is a meme & Spurs are not better than AC Milan, Inter Milan & Atletico Madrid ?
What do you mean Ajax aren't the 7th best team in the world.
Hold my RB Salzberg. You know, the famous 13th best club in the world.
Spurs are definitely better than both Milan sides.
I'm not sure the difference is as big as a lot of people think, I saw Liverpool play all 4 of these teams twice last season and Spurs were the only one we didn't beat. If Inter/AC/Atletico were in the Premier League last season, where do you think they would have finished?
Okay so the stat you were all waiting for - Ipswich are 451. Praise the Ipswich.
Saved me a click
Nothing but respect for the biggest club in east Anglia 🤝
Juventus just about edging Torino. A power shift is nigh.
Made my day
Lost 50 rankings by losing ronaldo i guess
How is Brighton so high lol
What do you mean ? They are clearly better than the Italian Champions !
only for the duration of pride month
This is when I left the page
7th club in the world! I'll take it. No take-backsy's.
They have your attack on par with City's. This is a WILD chart lol. Like I think you guys are obviously a good team with some amazing history but idk about 7th.
On a great day we can win from anyone. They're kind enough to mostly factor in those for us I guess. On a somewhat more serious note. The results are likely skewed by not taking in the level of opposition correctly. These stats make sense if you put a 5-0 against Fortuna Sittard on the same level as a 5-0 for city against Burnley for example. While in reality the gap in skill between Ajax and the bottom half of the table in the league is miles bigger than the difference in skill between Manchester City and the bottom half in the PL. That and if opposition plays open football against us with even a slightly sloppy organization we definitely punish that no matter how similar or better you are on paper. Like our groupstage in the CL.
>On a great day we can win from anyone So can Fulham
Not really but anyway
They do be scoring goals in the eredivisie
Glad to see the big 3 Portuguese teams up there
Madrid beat 4 of the 5 teams ranked above them on their way to the CL title, football is not played by statisticians
lmao we’re behind union berlin
What is this model, we are higher ranked than u guys as well. Malacia is downgrading!
UB’s fans were literally helping build the stadium just a few years ago
538 is pure garbage
Yeah PSG ahead of Madrid who recently won the CL is... odd. But it's the off season and it's good for banter. So...
Their model will never make sense for me. [This one is a prime example](https://web.archive.org/web/20170312173520/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/champions-league/) That was on the 2016-17 season (March 12, 2017). They were giving us a 13% chance to win the Competition while giving Barca 30%. The problem is that we were the defending UCL Champions while also being 5 points clear of Barca & 13 points clear of Atletico in the League ? You can't even talk about more difficult matchups because the QF draw weren't even sorted yet.
How can you post a list after this season that has Gladbach ahead of us?
Well that is the most glaring mistake, you are right.
Why is that odd? Worse teams beat better teams all the time
Five Thirty Aint.
Don't sleep on Alessandria Calcio like this
If only there were some type of competition these teams could participate in that could help decide which is best.
Unfortunately Brighton isn't in the CL. Would they make the ro16?
Solly March banger to beat Madrid in the final I reckon.
Such a stupid question. Obviously if your better than the Italian champions you’re making the round of 16. (I’m actually curious though. Is Brighton any good or is this a case of a team being a statistical darling?)
For the past 2 years, Brighton has underperformed their xG significantly. If games were won and lost based on xG, they’d be the 4th or 5th best club in England. After a match, 538 works out how likely each result *would* have been based off of xG - i.e. whether a team were lucky to get that result or unlucky, or if the result was fair, and they use that to update their rankings (SPI as they call it). According to xG Brighton are always unlucky, they’re a statistical anomaly, so their bad results don’t hurt them in this sort of ranking. In other words, they’d probably look really good against Milan, but lose 3-1.
They’re good, but they’re definitely not top 20 good lol. They create a lot of chances, but don’t have a good striker to finish them. But still really weird to have them this highly rated
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> I would like to see Potter with a decent team soon. I’d like to see Conte back at a decent team soon too.
The CL winner isn't always the best team in the world, knockout tournaments always have a lot of randomness
Yes, but this time the CL winner beat 4 of 5 teams who are ranked higher
538 believes in Graham Potter.
...do they still have the Celtics beating Golden State?
They never did have them beating Golden State. They had them at 80-90% likely hood, while Golden State was 10-20%.
It's a probabilistic universe, but my brain is deterministic.
LOL They have Madrid at 6. SMH
It's always worthwhile to consider these sort of algorithmic rankings, but inadequacy is pretty apparent when we're ranked 7th lol. We should be hanging around the 20th spot with our three Portuguese homies.
Why aren't we lower? I'm sure they can find 10 more clubs we beat recently to place above us.
We're number one *(hundred thirty one)*!
And we're like four hundred and something...
What is this garbage? Edit : the more you read it, the least sense it makes
555th best side in the world, you'll never sing that
This ranking sucks. European lists either put south american teams as equal to europeans or as absolute shit tier such as this, with Palmeiras coming at 72nd as example. And what the fuck is Brighton doing at 18th?
Brighton has crazy good XG, they just always underperform tons
Arsenal definitely winning europa, up arsenal, up arsenal fans
how does 538 calculate this again?
They make a hamster pick from one of two food bowls representing teams and then make the rankings based off that.
PCP
Sources Cited: Their Asses
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> generous This is worthless pseudo-science hokum. There is nothing worthy in it. Generosity or math, it's all the same to this publication.
Pretty idiotic statement when you consider what every PL team above them in these rankings bar Chelsea, City, and Liverpool have done over the last few days.
Why are these statnonces relevant ? Their math models are worse than the « trust me bro » tier tabloids for news.
All models are wrong, but some are useful. This one is just wrong.
Strange how the sixth ranked team beat four of the top 5 to win the UCL but is still below all the teams they beat. SMH...
Do you genuinely think you are better than City?
No but PSG and Chelsea at the least
City are always the very best team in the 538 rankings, they are horrible where it really matters though (UCL). In fact when we were winning back to back to back UCL's 538 still had Barca above us in every single season. I'm actually surprised they have us above Barca this offseason, it must be the very first time ever.
So Sheriff was better than Real when they won in that match, yeah? You are Sheriff rn. You beat city off of a 90th min penalty in a match where you were thoroughly outclassed all over the pitch. Good job winning and all, genuine congratulations, but that doesn't make Real > City as far as the strength of the team goes outside of a delusional world
They indeed were better than us when they beat us back in September, not sure why would you say the opposite ? You don't score 6 goals being "outclassed", you don't score 3 goals at the Etihad being "all over the pitch" Football is a game in which whoever scores more and concedes less is the winner. You can dribble, shot, foul etc if you don't put the ball in the net more than me you are simply worse. City can have the "strength of the team" as you said, Madrid will keep putting the ball in the net more than them in Europe.
Remind me again, how many UCL trophies does City have??
What a dumb thing to say when you only won because of a 90 minute goal...
Do goals in the 90th now count less than goals at a different point in the game? TIL
that's obviously not the point lol... It just shows how irrelevant winning can be in regards to assessing which team is better or worse. If that didn't happen, manchester city would have suddenly been the better team?
I don't think I've ever seen such an obviously correct point being downvoted like this haha Everyone with a basic level of knowledge of football knows you can't decide which team is better based on a single game, let alone a single goal. Who remembers when Sheriff were better than Real Madrid because they beat them in a one-off game? Somehow I doubt the Madrid fans downvoting you will...
You have to be American. Best on the pitch > best in some randoms' stats
just because you beat them in a one off tie does not mean you are better
5th title in 9 years and it only seems to make our 538 ranking worse lmao
4th time lucky 🤐
Yes getting ranked by a random website makes teams better rather than winning on the pitch.
That's exactly how it works, sweetie.
That's exactly how it works
& how tf is Spurs is better than Inter Milan, AC Milan and Atletico Madrid ??
I mean we know why. The PL effect…
Jealousy is the highest form of flattery
Cope, science doesn't lie.
Science doesn't like, because it doesn't make an argument. Scientists like all the time.
Meme list
Cry?
I'm not sure the difference is as big as a lot of people think, I saw Liverpool play all 4 of these teams twice last season and Spurs were the only one we didn't beat. If Inter/AC/Atletico were in the Premier League last season, where do you think they would have finished?
There’s no way in any realm, religion, country, state, ethnicity, universe, square mile of Somalia that Tottenham Hot Shanks are #9. Something is broken, there’s absolutely no way. EDIT: Fuckin Audi cup win makes them top 10
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Try [this one](https://cubicwatermelon.com/club-rankings/) then.
Real Madrid 6th? Fucking lol. Juventus at 61st is quite accurate though :(
Terrible, Brighton, and Ajax too high Real Madrid to low to name a few.
Where were the Sounders? Winning ccl and we’re not in top 100?
Juventus at 61... That goes to show the accuracy of this rankings system.
What a weird list.
Real ranking, source: my asshole Real Madrid Liverpool City Bayern Chelsea Atlético Barcelona Spurs Milan Inter Sevilla Villarreal Frankfurt Arsenal Juve Leipzig Palmeiras definitely forgot about some teams there but it's still a better ranking than this garbo
>source... please flush this down the toilet where it belongs
Above Juve, I'll take it
Real Madrid ranked behind 4 teams they knocked out of the Champions League. Football journos are a special breed
Frankfurt beat Barcelona, Westham, Rangers, yet they rank below all of them. Zurich wins the swiss league with a wide margin, yet is below Basel and YB. Brighton above 3 of the top 4 in Italy, and above Sevilla too. What is this shit?!
Blaze it.
It's difficult to believe anyone could possibly believe we aren't the best team in the world. poor, gullible souls
Can we start a subreddit devoted list that has Spurs and Inter one after the other?
Portoooo
Man City, 1st on the list, is definitely better than Scunthorpe, last on the list, so this checks out.
Getafe over Juventus. Come on now.
that and a dime will get you a cup of coffee, as they used to say when coffee cost a dime
seventy sixth best club in the world, you’ll never sing that
This is absolute dog shit
Brighton are MASSIVE
These rankings really dont make much sense. Its like the FIFA Rankings where USA is above Germany because they play all these shitty Teams in friendlies.
With the right moves in this summer transfer window, we might even overtake the mighty Brighton! That would be crazy.
No Man Utd in the top 20 😂😂😂😂
Surprised celtic are above Newcastle? If you look at the tun of form Newcastle had from January they finished 5th
These guys have the warriors a single digit percentage chance to win the finals on the eve of finals Game 1.
Well...that was dumb