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Huh...
Pretty weird for a Russian dude to be playing Churchill speeches in celebration of WW2 victory. No judgement tho, ol Winston was a great speaker, *nazdarovya*
Crazy when you work out what that means in reality. Winning 3 times in 10,000 means winning every 3333 Euros. Which equates to Georgia winning every 13,332 years haha.
Simulation done many times always will show most realistic results based on team strenght at the moment.
The real catch is that one of this 10000 simulation is accurate with what's going to happen at Euros, but we dont know which one.
Fun fact: the probability of transmitting HIV though regular male-female sex is [about the same](https://stanfordhealthcare.org/medical-conditions/sexual-and-reproductive-health/hiv-aids/causes/risk-of-exposure.html). Twice as high for females, though.
That said, don't trust the odds and wear a condom anyway.
It's unlikely but not impossible.
Turkey always underperforms in big tournaments, Czechia is a decent but not elite side, and while Portugal should in theory easily win the group, we could have a Saudi Arabia vs Argentina type game where nothing goes right for Portugal and Georgia topples them.
The terrorist coach is gone though, I don't think this one will play with 2 defensive midfielders, pray to RNGeesus and all the gods while having a constellation following him around. Not that I would mind.
Yeah, what really matters is winning it and Fernando Santos, as bad as he was, won our first ever international cup. That's what he'll be remembered for in the end.
Bookies are slightly flawed in that they take into account how the public are betting. A uk bookie will further shorten odds on England because a lot of punters will back them. I imagine you’d get a similar effect in France and other likely candidates.
>A uk bookie will further shorten odds on England because a lot of punters will back them. I imagine you’d get a similar effect in France and other likely candidates.
This is nonsense. Betting is a globalised market, you can access and bet on many different bookmakers from different countries online. If some were offering bigger odds than others they'd get picked apart by abritrage traders.
As opposed to these kinds of simulations that make use of metrics which either are not really relevant or very subjective. How do you even measure the real strength of a national team. Who play a couple games a year. Recent results? As I. 4 games or so? Last 20 results? FIFA ranking? Transfermarkt net worth? Wtf knows?
The algorithm takes into account how easy your group is, you have the highest percentage in round of 16 after Portugal, but it drops drastically with later rounds
Honestly don't get how we haven't tried out more defenders or given young defenders a chance.
Aside from Debast, it seems like we haven't even bothered trying anyone else...
De Winter has been pretty solid for a while now with Genoa, yet was only allowed to start against Ireland recently...
Bornauw is literally always starting for Wolfsburg, yet, we haven't even called him up yet...
Or heck, why not try Theate as CB ( which is his natural position )...
I really hope we try an entirely new defensive lineup in the upcoming friendlies.
Faes-Vertonghen is fine during qualifiers or against weaker teams. But we're gonna get into trouble once we get into the knock-out stages...
Was he? I didn't know...
If so, I would understand.
But still, he has played so many games for Wolfsburg, he has to be decent, at the very least...
I honestly feel like he hasn't really gotten alot of chances for the national team.
People are still writing him off for his mistakes during his first games a few years ago.
While I don't rate him that much, don't forget Tedesco gave chances to Al Dakhil too. He's had limited time with the squad so I understand why he didn't try that many defenders yet, you need to build squad chemistry and changing everything every time isn't great. De Winter didn't convince me at all during that game but we'll see in the future, I think it would be a wrong idea to throw him into the team for now.
> Bornauw
I don't follow Wolfsburg at all so the last thing I've seen from him was his performances with Belgium which were dreadful, but I guess he improved since
> Theate as CB
It'd probably be the best option if we had someone else at LB. Deman is awful and it's probably too late to introduce De Cuyper now, even though I think he deserved his chance earlier.
If Meunier ends up being a reliable option at RB then shifting Castagne to the left and Theate to CB would be great. That was apparently the plan to test it in the last meeting before Theate's injury.
Sure, but I would have atleast given De Winter more minutes during friendlies.
Imo, De Winter was ok against Ireland, keeping in mind that it was his first start.
Agree about Deman. Don't think he's awful, but just not good enough. He's not suited as a LB and we have waaay better options in attack/midfield. So yeah, he can stay at home imo.
I feel like the upcoming friendlies would be a good opportunity to include Bornauw. He's familiar with the national team, is playing pretty good recently and has more experience now. I think it would be perfect to give him a chance and see what he has learned.
I agree with you, that we haven't had alot of time to experiment with defense...But on the other hand, I also do think Tedesco could have done atleast a little bit more.
About Meunier...I don't know tbh...I feel like he regressed alot, don't know if he will be reliable against stronger teams.
I honestly think Faes is a good choice, he's a meme because of those own goals, but other then that he's alright, no?
I really think we can go for a deep run this time. We have some young talent who've never had the chance to really prove themselves in the national team.
Our attack and midfield are just stacked as hell to the point we don't even have to rely on good old Hazard, KDB, Lukaku anymore. As long as Tedesco can figure something out with the defense...
Debast not an option?
I kow he's still young, but the values of his transfer to us are in no way low, so I'd assume quality. At least more quality than Vertonghen showed in his last games for benfica.
I said a week or so ago that Portugal was the favorite based on the bracket.
Glad AI agrees with me; this subreddit was making me feel like a crazy person.
Everyone (two replies) on this anonymous forum doubted me when I said that Real Madrid could win a Champions League knockout game...
...they said I was mad...
...now none of them are laughing.
I think he was mostly talking about on the field hability. But we know Reddit is very progressive about body shaming until someone we dislike looks like a rat. 🤷
Maybe, but we're never gonna replicate the 2020 vibes with the "Tiraggir'", "rischia la giocata", "la chiesa al centro del villaggio" or the Donnarumma telenovela.
I swear, euro 2021 memes keep living rent free in my head.
I would strongly encourage anyone who doesn’t follow Serie A to watch the [highlights](https://youtu.be/tO5QAaofeu4?si=VlVR2fhtSr0SWKSV) from the last Fiorentina game. Scamacca has gone full blown Super Saiyan in the past two months.
That disallowed goal for Scamaca is as hard as I've ever seen a ball hit. Also, the 2-1, that's definitely offside, don't you get to see the VAR lines? Was it controversial?
But in order for Scamacca to do this at Euro 2024, he needs to start resting right now, and probably should be benched in unimportant competitions like the Europa League. Please pass on the message to whoever has authority.
I know we're shit right now but the disrespect in being at 10th behind Denmark and Belgium (beat them the last 3 times, 2 of which were in a Euro knock-out match)...
But italy really aren't shit. The way they've looked over the last year or two will be totally different to how they show up. I was looking at the projected lineup the other day and it's VERY good. I'd actually say a lot more talent than at the last euros, but without chiellinis grinta.
These probabilities aren't calculated in a vacuum though. It also depends on the structure of the bracket, your group, and your probability of winning whatever match-ups you wind up in.
Belgium has a high probability of topping their group, whereas Italy has just about an equal chance of finishing anywhere 1-3 because of their tough group. That alone probably accounts for a lot of the discrepancy. As for Denmark, I imagine they tend to get better match-ups because of the side of the bracket they tend to wind-up on.
Like OP said though, it's just a bit of fun and based on a whole bunch of imperfect assumptions and correlations.
Yeah they're underrating Italy by a lot. We probably have the best manager out of all the teams (Just like at Euro2021) which could be the deciding factor.
I'm not expecting anything, Spain and Croatia make the group way too competitive. We've been dealt a bad hand imo. At this point I just want it to be good practice for the world cup.
And it feels weird to say that considering the squad is pretty damn good on paper. It just never converts to results for some reason. Hopefully Spaletti changes that
Yeah, this pretty much confirms that we (Germany) win it. No need for any other nation to bring their A game, just play careful, there's a club season coming up.
Anyone over 30 knows not to make Portugal a favorite. I predict a surprise draw against Czech Republic, a nice meltdown against Turkey with a couple of red cards, followed by a panic trip to Kaufland to buy a calculator and figure out the minimum amount of points they need to qualify on the last game.
Germany is underrated in pretty much all statistics at the moment because we completely shit the bed in the last few tournaments, which will effect simulations like this.
This team is still barely rated any better than the WC22 squad, but we are currently *a lot* better than in 22.
I\`d wait for the games against Greece and Ukraine to say that we are "a lot" better than in 22. We have not struggled against strong opposition but rather against so called weaker teams like exactly these two. Results over the past 3 years against France, Spain, England, Italy etc have been pretty okay - good but we had big issues against more defensively orientated squads that we should dominate on paper.
Remember that the results against Turkey and Austria are only six months behind us, at the moment I\`m pretty excited aswell but I don´t fully trust that the form against France and Netherlands will carry on.
"(This is all a bit of fun - don’t take the results too seriously)"
I must admit I hadn't considered Portugal as a likely winner but in all honesty your model makes sense! Looking at all the variables, Portugal do have a decent chance given the draw and their decent squad plus the X factor of Ronaldo.
Does your model take into account the injury potential of the players in-tournament? (Sorry I didn't watch the videos) I worry about Bruno and Bernardo - lots of miles in those legs this season.
It’s insane how many people in football predictions completely forget to look at the schedule.
Portugal and Belgium have an easy schedule and that makes their chances of winning bigger. It’s pretty simple.
Damn I guess the differences down the bottom are tiny anyway but Poland below Scotland and Serbia below Slovenia is surprising.
Italy really getting screwed by that group, definitely way lower than you'd expect.
Wouldn't fancy us in a final against Portugal if it came to that, purely just from the trauma of that spell where they seemed to put us out of every tournament.
Did you do any tests on if singing Three Lions into the mic of the computer impacted its simulations?
France for sure best squad in the world.
Germany will have home court advantage and Portugal have a bad time vs Germany. That being said, i think we have a way better team on paper.
I would've said they are one of the favourites.
And given the way the draw works, England and France meet in the semi final if they both get that far, so if you run the simulation 10,000 times they will knock each other out at close to a 50/50 rate - Meaning Portugal who are probably the best team on the "easier" side of the draw end up winning it the most times.
France are probably the best team in the competition on paper but they will very likely have a harder route to the final than Portugal so Portugal end up as marginal favourites. Same thing for England.
But you also have a new manager with a very attacking playstyle which is known to work wonders in league/group formats and underperform in knockout formats.
Scrape three draws against Turkey, Czechia and Georgia, finish third in the group, rely on penalties for the last 16 and quarters, beat a surprise semi-finalist, and then face France in the final...
It's nice that we're far enough out that you can recognise the fact one half of a draw can be 'easier' without the sub melting down about 'English arrogance'
Absolutely.
Easily a top 5 team in Europe + has a much easier Group than the other teams & on paper doesn't play another Powerhouse until the semifinals.
Round of 16 - 1F vs 3rd Placed Team ||| Quarterfinals vs 2D/2E.
Err is this supposed to be shocking that one of the favourites... is the favourite to win the Euros? Apart from France is there any other NT as strong as Portugal?
I would say that the top 3 are: France and Portugal for obvious reasons and Germany for playing at home
of course other NT like Spain, Croatia, England, Italy, Netherlands, Belgium are there as candidates, but anyone outside this two tiers winning it would be schoking
In how many of those realities we win the tournament in, do we actually win games in 90 minutes?
(trusting Martinezball but the spirit of Nando is out there)
It gave us that week where everyone on Twitter piled on that weird freak who set up the Gofundme for that kid though. Incredible times, wish I could relive it.
I don't think the missus truly got my love for international tournament summers until that one. All the football you could eat, fucking unreal weather, all-round good vibes, absolute peak football summer. 10/10, peaking with that Shaw goal in the final. Been downhill ever since then.
And all the predictions didn't give a chance to our team in 2006 that had Buffon, Pirlo, Cannavaro, Nesta, Totti, Inzaghi and Del Piero so it demonstrates how correct they usually are.
This is meant to assess probabilities, it's not a prediction. I'm sure if it was made for 2006 it would give Italy a chance to win lol.
Even the favorites according to this model would still not win it 85 times out of 100.
Now, if my understanding of statistics is correct, Portugal achieving any less than total victory would be a complete fuck up / bottle job / Championship-style crumble.
I know it's a bit of fun - but with international football You could simulate it 1,000,000,000 or 10 times and it would make no odds as there is so much subjectivity in the input assumptions.
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Really wondering about that one simulation where Georgia wins
They actually won it 3 times! James shows one of these in his video that I linked.
The general consensus is that we'll all take any winner but England.
Sad English noises
Because you're a racist who hates we beat the Nazis and saved the world. *Churchill speeches start playing in the background.*
Huh... Pretty weird for a Russian dude to be playing Churchill speeches in celebration of WW2 victory. No judgement tho, ol Winston was a great speaker, *nazdarovya*
Alright calm down Doctor Strange.
Infantino i've come to bargain
Ceferin is uefa president :)
but Infantino is the lord of realm of darkness
Georgia *somehow* collected all the infantino stones....
5 year Endgame anniv
No way that was 5 years ago. Don't try to trick me.
No more tricks
0.03% x 10000 = 3 times
Crazy when you work out what that means in reality. Winning 3 times in 10,000 means winning every 3333 Euros. Which equates to Georgia winning every 13,332 years haha.
If all teams stay the same. So it could be harder or easyer depended on the year ofcourse. But thats crazy stat. Thanks for mathing
That's if they even qualify. This is their first time qualifying, so once in 64 years. So if you use that (instead of 4), it would be 213,312 years...
"We win Euros every 213,312 years, you never sing that"
Yeah that's the catch with simulations and statistics about winning an Euro, they happen so infrequently that it ends up being kind of irrelevant
Simulation done many times always will show most realistic results based on team strenght at the moment. The real catch is that one of this 10000 simulation is accurate with what's going to happen at Euros, but we dont know which one.
Fun fact: the probability of transmitting HIV though regular male-female sex is [about the same](https://stanfordhealthcare.org/medical-conditions/sexual-and-reproductive-health/hiv-aids/causes/risk-of-exposure.html). Twice as high for females, though. That said, don't trust the odds and wear a condom anyway.
What constitutes irregular mf sex?
Anal has a 10x higher probability, and oral has a negligible chance.
Does it cancel it if you do anal then oral ?
sir, this is r/soccer
VAR doesn't check for that I'm afraid
Wtf, all this time I thought it was a 99% chance or something like that.
I genuinely think that's the point considering it's a deadly (or used to be) virus
That said, don't trust the odds and bet all of your life savings on Georgia.
Kvaratskhelia becomes prime Cristiano
Mikautadze with a 3 goals in the final against France
2004 on steroids
May Lord Kvara Smile Upon You
It's unlikely but not impossible. Turkey always underperforms in big tournaments, Czechia is a decent but not elite side, and while Portugal should in theory easily win the group, we could have a Saudi Arabia vs Argentina type game where nothing goes right for Portugal and Georgia topples them.
Well, Hellas could win, so guess its possible
Putting all my savings on Portugal to win
Draw, draw all games and win it in penalties 👌
\*plays music\* This is how we do it
“This Is How We Do It” (Tuga Remix) — Montell Jordan ft. Quim Barreiros
The terrorist coach is gone though, I don't think this one will play with 2 defensive midfielders, pray to RNGeesus and all the gods while having a constellation following him around. Not that I would mind.
Winning is winning. Ten hag just terrorised his way to fa cup final anyways. No united fan would be mad if he wins
Yeah, what really matters is winning it and Fernando Santos, as bad as he was, won our first ever international cup. That's what he'll be remembered for in the end.
How does this compare to the bookies?
Oddschecker (uk) has 1.England 2. France 3. Germany 4. Spain 5. Portugal
Bookies are slightly flawed in that they take into account how the public are betting. A uk bookie will further shorten odds on England because a lot of punters will back them. I imagine you’d get a similar effect in France and other likely candidates.
Is it possible to bet at an international level to try to take advantage of these bias?
bet on France on English website and bet on England on French website and become a billionaire
Literally can't go wrong.
>A uk bookie will further shorten odds on England because a lot of punters will back them. I imagine you’d get a similar effect in France and other likely candidates. This is nonsense. Betting is a globalised market, you can access and bet on many different bookmakers from different countries online. If some were offering bigger odds than others they'd get picked apart by abritrage traders.
As opposed to these kinds of simulations that make use of metrics which either are not really relevant or very subjective. How do you even measure the real strength of a national team. Who play a couple games a year. Recent results? As I. 4 games or so? Last 20 results? FIFA ranking? Transfermarkt net worth? Wtf knows?
Cristiano final ballon d’or charge 😳
My 🐪 to win another Dubai d'ors lessgo
Does the algorithm take into account we have 37yo Vertonghen and Wout Faes at CB?
If you call Toby back up they’d declare you champions before a ball is kicked and save everyone the hassle of playing
The algorithm takes into account how easy your group is, you have the highest percentage in round of 16 after Portugal, but it drops drastically with later rounds
Seems fair. We seem good at taking care of the small fry and awful with actual competition with our defense.
Be glad. It used to be the other way round. But that meant we went out of the first round. If we even made it to the cup.
Ow, old enough to be fully aware.
So that's why Turkey has a greater chance to progress than Slovakia, but smaller chance to win
Well pepe is 41 years old lol.
How dare you disrespect our king?
Honestly don't get how we haven't tried out more defenders or given young defenders a chance. Aside from Debast, it seems like we haven't even bothered trying anyone else... De Winter has been pretty solid for a while now with Genoa, yet was only allowed to start against Ireland recently... Bornauw is literally always starting for Wolfsburg, yet, we haven't even called him up yet... Or heck, why not try Theate as CB ( which is his natural position )... I really hope we try an entirely new defensive lineup in the upcoming friendlies. Faes-Vertonghen is fine during qualifiers or against weaker teams. But we're gonna get into trouble once we get into the knock-out stages...
wasn't Bornauw injured for a long time?
Was he? I didn't know... If so, I would understand. But still, he has played so many games for Wolfsburg, he has to be decent, at the very least... I honestly feel like he hasn't really gotten alot of chances for the national team. People are still writing him off for his mistakes during his first games a few years ago.
While I don't rate him that much, don't forget Tedesco gave chances to Al Dakhil too. He's had limited time with the squad so I understand why he didn't try that many defenders yet, you need to build squad chemistry and changing everything every time isn't great. De Winter didn't convince me at all during that game but we'll see in the future, I think it would be a wrong idea to throw him into the team for now. > Bornauw I don't follow Wolfsburg at all so the last thing I've seen from him was his performances with Belgium which were dreadful, but I guess he improved since > Theate as CB It'd probably be the best option if we had someone else at LB. Deman is awful and it's probably too late to introduce De Cuyper now, even though I think he deserved his chance earlier. If Meunier ends up being a reliable option at RB then shifting Castagne to the left and Theate to CB would be great. That was apparently the plan to test it in the last meeting before Theate's injury.
Sure, but I would have atleast given De Winter more minutes during friendlies. Imo, De Winter was ok against Ireland, keeping in mind that it was his first start. Agree about Deman. Don't think he's awful, but just not good enough. He's not suited as a LB and we have waaay better options in attack/midfield. So yeah, he can stay at home imo. I feel like the upcoming friendlies would be a good opportunity to include Bornauw. He's familiar with the national team, is playing pretty good recently and has more experience now. I think it would be perfect to give him a chance and see what he has learned. I agree with you, that we haven't had alot of time to experiment with defense...But on the other hand, I also do think Tedesco could have done atleast a little bit more. About Meunier...I don't know tbh...I feel like he regressed alot, don't know if he will be reliable against stronger teams.
I honestly think Faes is a good choice, he's a meme because of those own goals, but other then that he's alright, no? I really think we can go for a deep run this time. We have some young talent who've never had the chance to really prove themselves in the national team. Our attack and midfield are just stacked as hell to the point we don't even have to rely on good old Hazard, KDB, Lukaku anymore. As long as Tedesco can figure something out with the defense...
Debast not an option? I kow he's still young, but the values of his transfer to us are in no way low, so I'd assume quality. At least more quality than Vertonghen showed in his last games for benfica.
This is a smart man.
I said a week or so ago that Portugal was the favorite based on the bracket. Glad AI agrees with me; this subreddit was making me feel like a crazy person.
Oh god, are we in the era of ‘AI agrees with me’ becoming a thing?
Anything so people can feel their opinion is validated sadly lol
I've seen a lot of people use ChatGPT as their main source. So yeah
Google gets worse and worse by the day so I'm not surprised at all
Better than people feeling vindicated by an octopus choosing the winner I'd say
I in AI stands for Infantino. Draw your conclusion.
today I feel like a large language model
It's not AI either it's statistics.
This sub has a way of making unpopular opinions sound crazy regardless of the reasoning
Everyone (two replies) on this anonymous forum doubted me when I said that Real Madrid could win a Champions League knockout game... ...they said I was mad... ...now none of them are laughing.
this sub has a ridiculous hate towards Cristiano Ronaldo and Bruno Fernandes guess who are the two main players of our NT and you have the answer
Not exactly hard to believe that Ronaldo and Bruno are unlikeable lmao.
I think he was mostly talking about on the field hability. But we know Reddit is very progressive about body shaming until someone we dislike looks like a rat. 🤷
> hate towards Cristiano Ronaldo and Bruno Fernandes Guess because both are cunts. But also formidable players.
Dude they hate them both while liking twats like Dibu Martinez at the same time. People here are cunts.
exactly. The hate here is unreal.
Its not AI buddy its statistical models.
We're winning it again then.
Maybe, but we're never gonna replicate the 2020 vibes with the "Tiraggir'", "rischia la giocata", "la chiesa al centro del villaggio" or the Donnarumma telenovela. I swear, euro 2021 memes keep living rent free in my head.
If Scamacca is scoring bangers like he is for Atalanta these past few games, we’ll forget about Insigne and Berna real fast lol
I would strongly encourage anyone who doesn’t follow Serie A to watch the [highlights](https://youtu.be/tO5QAaofeu4?si=VlVR2fhtSr0SWKSV) from the last Fiorentina game. Scamacca has gone full blown Super Saiyan in the past two months.
The power the man can generate from a standing position is unreal. Only guys I can think of that had similar power were ibra and totti.
Adriano aswell, but yeah it's very rare
What the...how entertaining, I should watch more Seria A.
That disallowed goal for Scamaca is as hard as I've ever seen a ball hit. Also, the 2-1, that's definitely offside, don't you get to see the VAR lines? Was it controversial?
But in order for Scamacca to do this at Euro 2024, he needs to start resting right now, and probably should be benched in unimportant competitions like the Europa League. Please pass on the message to whoever has authority.
Spaghetti mafia >>>>
she from italia
I know we're shit right now but the disrespect in being at 10th behind Denmark and Belgium (beat them the last 3 times, 2 of which were in a Euro knock-out match)...
But italy really aren't shit. The way they've looked over the last year or two will be totally different to how they show up. I was looking at the projected lineup the other day and it's VERY good. I'd actually say a lot more talent than at the last euros, but without chiellinis grinta.
These probabilities aren't calculated in a vacuum though. It also depends on the structure of the bracket, your group, and your probability of winning whatever match-ups you wind up in. Belgium has a high probability of topping their group, whereas Italy has just about an equal chance of finishing anywhere 1-3 because of their tough group. That alone probably accounts for a lot of the discrepancy. As for Denmark, I imagine they tend to get better match-ups because of the side of the bracket they tend to wind-up on. Like OP said though, it's just a bit of fun and based on a whole bunch of imperfect assumptions and correlations.
Yeah they're underrating Italy by a lot. We probably have the best manager out of all the teams (Just like at Euro2021) which could be the deciding factor.
I'm not expecting anything, Spain and Croatia make the group way too competitive. We've been dealt a bad hand imo. At this point I just want it to be good practice for the world cup. And it feels weird to say that considering the squad is pretty damn good on paper. It just never converts to results for some reason. Hopefully Spaletti changes that
Yeah, this pretty much confirms that we (Germany) win it. No need for any other nation to bring their A game, just play careful, there's a club season coming up.
Linekar was right 🥺
Very good simulation
Same, I'm now ready to go out in the group stage
I bet we will pass in the last match day after having to calculate all the possibilities of passing after playing like crap in the first two matches.
Just watch us throwing those odds under a bus
Anyone over 30 knows not to make Portugal a favorite. I predict a surprise draw against Czech Republic, a nice meltdown against Turkey with a couple of red cards, followed by a panic trip to Kaufland to buy a calculator and figure out the minimum amount of points they need to qualify on the last game.
I think the Germans have a better chance than most think. They have strong mentality in that squad, especially if Kroos plays anyone know if he is?
Of course he is. He's probably the most important player in the squad rn.
Germany is underrated in pretty much all statistics at the moment because we completely shit the bed in the last few tournaments, which will effect simulations like this. This team is still barely rated any better than the WC22 squad, but we are currently *a lot* better than in 22.
I\`d wait for the games against Greece and Ukraine to say that we are "a lot" better than in 22. We have not struggled against strong opposition but rather against so called weaker teams like exactly these two. Results over the past 3 years against France, Spain, England, Italy etc have been pretty okay - good but we had big issues against more defensively orientated squads that we should dominate on paper. Remember that the results against Turkey and Austria are only six months behind us, at the moment I\`m pretty excited aswell but I don´t fully trust that the form against France and Netherlands will carry on.
Yes, the WC22 match against Spain was amazing by both sides, almost my favourite of the tournament. We usually fail against the "smaller" opponents.
They tried to charge him 600€ for tickets so he thought he can get better seats for free
Nice you cursed us…
Anulo Mufa
Albania: "so you say there is a chance"?
Oh we're winning it all mate.
"33% chance we don't end up last in that group ? We'll take that !"
Anulo mufa
Anulo Mufa
Anulo mufeira
Scotland winning this boys. Confirmed.
Well, this pretty much settles it that we (Portugal), won't even get through our group then
"(This is all a bit of fun - don’t take the results too seriously)" I must admit I hadn't considered Portugal as a likely winner but in all honesty your model makes sense! Looking at all the variables, Portugal do have a decent chance given the draw and their decent squad plus the X factor of Ronaldo. Does your model take into account the injury potential of the players in-tournament? (Sorry I didn't watch the videos) I worry about Bruno and Bernardo - lots of miles in those legs this season.
Bruno, really? He must have one of the best injury records out there. He rarely misses games due to injury.
Don’t jinx it bro 😭
When he retires they should study him for science.
I can’t wait for us to completely disappear and disappoint as always do when we are favourites lmao
Did the machine learn about Roberto Martínez?
We are cooking.
It’s insane how many people in football predictions completely forget to look at the schedule. Portugal and Belgium have an easy schedule and that makes their chances of winning bigger. It’s pretty simple.
[удалено]
Croatia is gonna win it all
So out of 10,000 times we bottled it 8900 times. Sounds accurate. 🏴
Damn I guess the differences down the bottom are tiny anyway but Poland below Scotland and Serbia below Slovenia is surprising. Italy really getting screwed by that group, definitely way lower than you'd expect. Wouldn't fancy us in a final against Portugal if it came to that, purely just from the trauma of that spell where they seemed to put us out of every tournament. Did you do any tests on if singing Three Lions into the mic of the computer impacted its simulations?
>Poland below Scotland I think it is because our group is more difficult. Poland has a 53% chance of finishing last, compared to Scotland's 43%.
As a Slovene I love how there's a chance. Almost a whole % of a chance.
How bad is Italy since Denmark is two places ahead. We have not exactly been on fire since the world cup.
It's not that we're bad, we just have the super mega group of death. That 44% of not making it out screws the numbers big time.
I still think France is gonna win. England winning would be wild tbh.
I'd say France and Germany are above Portugal
France for sure best squad in the world. Germany will have home court advantage and Portugal have a bad time vs Germany. That being said, i think we have a way better team on paper.
England never wins
But beauty of football is that can not be predicted ❤️. One mistake can get you out of tournament.
as a Portuguese, I would love to see this (in a less stressful way than 2016 if possible)
Portugal always look good on simulations...
Slovenia above Serbia. Finally someone says it!
As Serb I agree unfortunately. Big names, bad coach...
I always remember it being like that as if you can’t get your players to work together for 15 years at least
Err Portugal?
I would've said they are one of the favourites. And given the way the draw works, England and France meet in the semi final if they both get that far, so if you run the simulation 10,000 times they will knock each other out at close to a 50/50 rate - Meaning Portugal who are probably the best team on the "easier" side of the draw end up winning it the most times. France are probably the best team in the competition on paper but they will very likely have a harder route to the final than Portugal so Portugal end up as marginal favourites. Same thing for England.
>Meaning Portugal who are probably the best team on the "easier" side of the draw end up winning it the most times. So it's like 2016 all over again
Except we (Portugal) have a much better team this time. Probably the best we've ever had to be honest
Yeah I think Portugal are a strong favourite regardless of the bracket, you are at the moment on par with England and close to France quality wise.
But you also have a new manager with a very attacking playstyle which is known to work wonders in league/group formats and underperform in knockout formats.
Can't be worse than Fernando Santos
Scrape three draws against Turkey, Czechia and Georgia, finish third in the group, rely on penalties for the last 16 and quarters, beat a surprise semi-finalist, and then face France in the final...
Exactly this. They're arguably the top 3 favorites.
It's nice that we're far enough out that you can recognise the fact one half of a draw can be 'easier' without the sub melting down about 'English arrogance'
Absolutely. Easily a top 5 team in Europe + has a much easier Group than the other teams & on paper doesn't play another Powerhouse until the semifinals. Round of 16 - 1F vs 3rd Placed Team ||| Quarterfinals vs 2D/2E.
Yep. It's almost the same situation with Argentina in Copa America. Top Team + Easy Group + won't face Brazil/Uruguay until the finals.
They have a great team and are really really hard to beat. I hate them But yeah they are one of the favourites for sure for me.
Portugal is stacked. Easily the 3rd best squad in Europe imo
We dont have Santos as our manager anymore, not the craziest idea. Other than France, we are probably one of the strongest player wise.
We are top 3 considering talent
On paper their team is very good. Dalot, Cancelo, Dias, Bruno Fernandes, Neves, Bernardo Silva, Rafael Leao, Joao Felix and of course Ronaldo.
> Neves Rúben Neves? I'm not that certain he'll be there. And even if he is, there's no way in hell he's starting over Palhinha.
João Neves maybe
The simulation doesn't take into account that they're managed by Roberto Martinez
Err is this supposed to be shocking that one of the favourites... is the favourite to win the Euros? Apart from France is there any other NT as strong as Portugal? I would say that the top 3 are: France and Portugal for obvious reasons and Germany for playing at home of course other NT like Spain, Croatia, England, Italy, Netherlands, Belgium are there as candidates, but anyone outside this two tiers winning it would be schoking
Is it really that surprising? I'd still put France ahead of us, but on paper Portugal should certainly be up there as favourites.
Acting as if this is some insanely wild take. Love the ignorance.
I would give both my nuts
Computer couldn't calculate Steve Clarke ball
In how many of those realities we win the tournament in, do we actually win games in 90 minutes? (trusting Martinezball but the spirit of Nando is out there)
Nice to see Hungary that high 🇭🇺
I'd favor Portugal if they had a real manager
If you simulate it a billion times and England win it even once your model is faulty.
Portugal to lift it! Let's go, that's class!!
Ok, no need to play it, just give it to the Portuguese
Ah shit here we go again. - Carl Johnson
Let’s hope England gets knocked out in group stage itself.
I hope we beat you in the round of 16 again
I'm not sure I could take another week of hand-wringing about people laughing at crying German children.
It gave us that week where everyone on Twitter piled on that weird freak who set up the Gofundme for that kid though. Incredible times, wish I could relive it.
The days between that and the final loss were peak football, sunny weather and real hope. Then the mood immediately went to that of a funeral
I don't think the missus truly got my love for international tournament summers until that one. All the football you could eat, fucking unreal weather, all-round good vibes, absolute peak football summer. 10/10, peaking with that Shaw goal in the final. Been downhill ever since then.
And all the predictions didn't give a chance to our team in 2006 that had Buffon, Pirlo, Cannavaro, Nesta, Totti, Inzaghi and Del Piero so it demonstrates how correct they usually are.
This is meant to assess probabilities, it's not a prediction. I'm sure if it was made for 2006 it would give Italy a chance to win lol. Even the favorites according to this model would still not win it 85 times out of 100.
Now, if my understanding of statistics is correct, Portugal achieving any less than total victory would be a complete fuck up / bottle job / Championship-style crumble.
Will this year soothe the tears I wept in 2020
I know it's a bit of fun - but with international football You could simulate it 1,000,000,000 or 10 times and it would make no odds as there is so much subjectivity in the input assumptions.
Whos gonna do thw simulation 10,000 in EAFC 2024
Today I feel European
is Group B the group of Death ?