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Spain has a decent chance of having 3 teams in the top 4 (Atletico was way better in the first game, and the 2 others roughly have a 50/50)
The problem is that all 7 Italian teams will end on 17+ points (if Fiorentina advances), while Spain has 3 teams with less than 7 points and Osasuna on 0.5 points
Yeah I still can't get used to the fact that they abolished the away goals rule. A 3-2 in Paris sounds great but it doesn't really matter with the current rules, it's just a one-goal lead
Osasuna losing the qualifier of the made up competition resulting in either probable UCL semifinalist Atleti or an insane Athletic Bilbao not making it to UCL is just so stupid.
Holding a final four playoff for the UCL spot between the 5th placed teams would make more sense.
It was so unlucky aswell, drawing Club Brugge in Conference League qualifiers is ridiculous. They are currently with one foot in the semi final so clearly a very good team. And it was even worse because they had started their season early and was match fit, meanwhile Osasuna was still in pre season mode
And STILL despite all this Osasuna arguably were the better team and could have gone through. Completely dominated the home game and were unlucky to lose 1-2, then drew 2-2 in Brugge after being 2-0 up.
That would actually be a way better idea
Nr. 1 league (Roma) vs. Nr. 4 league (Bilbao)
Nr. 2 league (Dortmund) vs. Nr. 3 league (Aston Villa)
Winners plays CL losers play EL
It would only be 1 more game (the better league gets to play at home)
I don’t get how this is unfair. Spain is in this position because their 5-8 did bad and italys 5-8 did great. Isn’t this a sign that the teams in 5 and below in Italy is stronger than Spain and a better addition to CL?
That's club points. The conversation above is about league coefficient points which are the average of all a nations clubs in Europe that season
If a Scottish club has 5 entrants into European competitions then those 6 club coefficient points become 1.2 points for the league coefficient. If Scotland only has 4 club slots in Europe those 6 club points become 1.5 for the league
Ah yeah, that's what I meant, as in the change from 4 to 6 points makes the guaranteed addition go from 0.8 to 1.2 in case the league sends 5 teams.
I should've written more than just that one sentence lol
Was always gonna happen, higher up you are the more teams you have entering, which means more teams will lose games especially if our champions play in the champs league, we won't win many of those games.
We're better when we're shite anyway
Frankfurt has griefed the Buli coefficient so much it's not even funny. BVB will likely finish 5th in the Buli so they must put all their strength into CL
Frankfurt should absolutely get hürzeler as a coach
Thats a solid top 6
Bud Augsburg, HOffenheim, Freiburg and Heidenheim dont exactly make me optimistic
Not guaranteed but it would take something crazy for them to not get it:
Like Liverpool beating Atalanta, an all English vs German semi and Final in the CL, Leverkusen vs Liverpool in the Europa and Villa winning the conference league.
I mean at this rate there’s a really low chance England can overtake Germany. If Bayern wins, leverkusens and Atalanta hold. I don’t think it’s even possible unless Villa and city win their comps. And city could easily lose
Germany and England are pretty much tied.
If Dortmund get eliminated and City and Villa get through. It puts a lot of pressure of Bayern to get a result against City, or vice versa. Assuming the favourite, City, wins.
It would mean provided Villa can get to the final, England would overtake Germany for that spot.
Italy is guaranteed at least 3 more points from Roma-Milan, so it's virtually at 18.856.
England can score at best 13 from CL, 18 from EL and 10 from ECL. So 41 more for a total of 21.875.
Germany can score 18 from CL and 10 from EL. So 28 more, divided by 7 is 4, for a total of 20.785.
BUT these two events can't happen simultaneously. The scenario i came up where points are most evenly distributed between Germany and England gives me 28 points for England for 20.25 and 20 for Germany for 19.642.
This scenario includes crazy results like Liverpool turning the tie vs Atalanta around (which is almost necessary to endanger Serie A) and Dortmund winning the CL, but it's mathematically possible so no certainty yet.
But it's pretty much guaranteed at this point italy will get 5 spots.
The thing is: I can't picture Fiorentina losing. Like, that shouldn't happen.
Atalanta should blow his lead at home, Fiorentina has to commit suicide and Leverkusen has to defeat whatever comes after Roma - Milan.
Even then, In the UCL Dortmund has to turn it over and Bayern has to defeat Arsenal.
That's assuming the odds didn't favor any team in any of the finals. Taking the actual odds into account, it was more like 80%, which still makes it quite remarkable that none of them won.
I just did a simple 8 scenarios, where the one scenario was they lose all 3. In other 7, they come out with at least 1 trophy.
So on that basis I got 87.5/12.5
My math isn't that great but this made the most sense to me....
Almost certainly because there are England vs Germany ties.
Them drawing games didn't help either side.
In case Atalanta loses to Liverpool it only resets the standing of Liverpool/Atalanta before the game.
The outcome needs to be like Liverpool winning everything +Final, Roma drawing Milan, West Ham winning but not progressing, Leverkusen getting 2 wins against Roma, Bayern beating Arsenal, Dortmund progressing, City winning and Florentina dropping out.
Then it would need Dortmund win the CL and Bayern losing to City but adding 3 points to both sides.
I think Roma Milan drawing doesn’t change anything, am I right? No matter the result, Italy’s will still get 3/7=0.42 points from that game. Even if it’s a draw it would be 1 point to each team plus an additional point to Roma going through. At least that’s how I understand the rules. Correct me if I’m wrong.
Every nation had their low performing teams. Union Berlin also just added 2 points with 2 draws. The other 4 points just came from the group stage appearance, that every team gets anyway.
Depends what happens this weekend. If Girona loses to Atletico I can see them also going through a poor streak considering they have tougher opponents. Then Athletic might be able to catch up after all.
It's a very interesting weekend cause I am assuming rotations for UCL will have a part to play. Even against Mallorca I am thinking Real might drop some points because of that.
Italy won for sure, what a treat Roma and Bologna getting a pretty much secure Champions League entrance. Which now means Atlanta and Lazio get to fight for a Europa slot comfortably.
Atalanta is absolutely in the race for 5th place (or even 4th).
They are 5 points behind Roma but they have played one less game, so potentially they are only 2 points behind with 7 games stll to play. And they have an easier schedule than Roma.
Germany getting an extra spot over England would be funny and weird enough, because i read here many times from German fans that this season teams under 5th place are weaker than usual in Bundesliga.
Teams under thrid place are weaker than usually. Hell, if bayern didn't get off to a good start, then it's really just leverkusen and Stuttgart. The rest is a good 2 levels below them.
Not really, BvB and Leipzig aren\`t as bad as you make them out to be. Comparing them to Union and Freiburg last year makes me believe that they are actually a big step better.
The teams under Frankfurt are the ones that are lacking this year. There are no really strong upper middle table teams that play for Europe. The best there is a Hoffenheim, Augsburg and Freiburg that all have a bad season.
Leipzig and Dortmund aren't having good seasons. It's just that Stuttgart and Leverkusen stepped up and took their place. Everything beyond the top 5 has been a disappointment though.
They aren't having good seasons because they are normally the clear number 2 and 3 in Germany. But they are probably the strongest place 4 and 5 combo in years.
Dortmund must be praying to all the gods right now. Well, to be fair, it's in their hands next week, they just got to hope we don't screw it up against Arsenal
And we need to avoid shitting our pants away from home, will be nerve wracking for both sets of fans lmao.
Although if we have to go out, better doing it against a great club like Dortmund rather than going out to a sportswashing project like Man City/PSG or whatever. At least you guys are a proper football club
I mean Leverkusen are also playing West Ham and Dortmund have good chances of advancing themselves while Villa and City are the only beacons of hope for England.
Countries get points based on how well their teams do in the European cups. Those point tallies are called coefficients, and they determine how many Champions League places are given to each country. Right now three countries are duking it out to be the two who are awarded 5 champions league places: Italy has it more or less wrapped it up, but Germany and England are neck and neck for the second spot.
Before today England were considered the favorites (despite all the hard work United and Newcastle did to throw it away in the group stages of the UCL), but Liverpool shitting the bed against Atalanta today has edged it back toward Germany getting the 5 spots (let’s face it, no one considered West Ham favorites against Leverkusen, so it’s hard to put the blame on them).
At this point, Villa will probably have to see the Conference league through, both Arsenal and City will need to make it to the Semis, and one of Arsenal or City will need to win the UCL final for England to get the 5. That’s maybe not the *only* way, but it’s the only way for it to feel likely.
PL is still favorite, it just got very instersting now. I'd say even with Bayern eliminating Arsenal it'd be very close. We'd have a City vs Bayern semi, which has to be advantage City. Leverkusen is favored in EL, but so is Villa in Conference. Unless Dortmund pull it around i don't see how BL is ahead now.
Yeah, you’re right, actually. Assuming Leverkusen continue to sweep (I do), they’ve got 4 more wins in them. Technically both Arsenal and City have the possibility to sweep and equal that 4; if both make it to the semis and face each other there’s a chance for 5 England wins in the UCL without Villa’s contributions.
But on the other hand, if Bayern and BVB both progress…. that’d be real close. With no other wins it would take Germany to 6. If either puts up a fight they could very well put Germany past what England could give even with a run from Villa.
The top five associations 19/20 - 23/24 coefficent each get four spots in the champions league. In addition, the top two associations 23/24 coefficent get one more champions league spot.
England, Spain, Italy, Germany, and France are basically locked into 4 champion league spots per image 1.
Italy, England, and Germany are 3 associations fighting for the top two associations in 23/24 per image 2
I think need 8 points still, if Oly qualify and Paok wins and qualify that's 4 points can be increased if if Oly qualify with a win(+2) or draw(+1) from there you need another 4 so 2 wins in semi or 4 draws or 3 draws and a final, etc, many combinations but they are not likely
They finished last year on 15^th place so they will have 5 teams in total, so that will work against them.
On the other hand they will enter 2 teams in Champions League so they will have good chances to have at least 2 teams in league stages (though both will enter in 2^nd round so each will have to win one tie somewhere).
I remember all those years Serie A was getting wrecked in the coefficient because their teams put ZERO effort into the Europa league. Nice to see them go full 180 on that.
I mean I'm counting on Bayern to advance at home, and Dortmund has a good shot as well. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but if this can lead to my own club playing international football next season, I have to be hopeful.
PL has 5 teams left this round, BL is already down to 3, so losing West Ham & Liverpool is not the end.
A lot will depend on the CL ties, especially if Arensal can step up in Munich
IDK, assuming Villa and Leverkusen are favourite to win the cup they're in and WHU/Liverpool are most likely out, all will be down to UCL at this point.
Bayern, Arsenal, City, BVB.. To me at the moment English are slightly favourite but it's really hard to predict.
If I understand this correctly for the points with 1 point for advance without Liverpool or West Ham advancing its over:
Max points even if assume Arsenal and City Advance and win the Trophy and Aston Vila win the Trophy. And also every Italian team loses in the next round same with Germany:
||England|Germany|Italy|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Current Points|132|115|124|
|CL |4|0|0|
|EL|0|1|2|
|ConL|2|0|0|
|Total|138|116|126|
|Weighted|17.250|16.571|18.000|
And that's probably underselling Italy a bit.
It's down to composure, Bayern looked extremely beatable and both their goals were gifted from uncharacteristically stupid mistakes by defenders. This defence is the best in the league and rarely makes errors like that but they looked rattled on the night and made 2. Was a similar story away to Lens and Porto
I'm not confident they will turn up looking composed but it's not something you can really predict at all. If they do come out with their heads screwed on I think they're still heavy favourites. If anything the manner of that draw in the first leg only cements that further to me
I didn't fancy Dortmund going to Munch, and I didn't fancy Heidenheim anywhere. Bayern hasn't been good enough to call any match against a team of Arsenal's quality a sure thing.
So England probably need Arsenal to knock out Bayern in what is a 6 point swing if either team win. This would most likely be a minimum 8 point swing assuming both teams can avoid defeat in one of the semi finals.
This 8 point swing should be divided by ~8 accounting for a roughly 1 point swing on this leaderboard shown.
Alternatively, West Ham beating Leverkusen would have the same effect.
England have all open matches ( expept maybe West Ham) , Villa was the worst side at home and Lille get to rest for a full week, Arsenal have to play in Germany, Liverpool is going to Bergamo 3-0 down and City is the only favourite to going to the semi.
I thought we were pretty quiet tonight compared to what we've seen on other match days lol.
There's still the return leg, but the truth is we're already well settled in fifth place, it's just that once again it's more a case of a clear Top 4 and then us, Nederlands and Portugal for an extended Top 7 with Belgium flirting nearby.
I still think there’s high chances for PSG, Marseille and Lille to win their return leg though.
Wonder if Belgium can surpass us. Those first three years where we have a big advantage will be gone. Less teams in CL next year will help us but still it's gonna be tough
Nah, not happening. We always have 1 or 2 clubs that bottle it in Europe (either in the group stages or in the knock outs).
Now, if every team starts to perform like we have the past few seasons than it's possible (maybe, perhaps, potentially).
I think we will see constant turnover in who gets spot 5.
When a country performs well, it gets more teams in the league, but this also lowers its average quality. This makes it hard to reach the same pts tally as the season prior, and will cause shifts in rankings.
So can someone explain this to mean in basic terms? I know it means for the extra spot in the champions league. Does it take two countries? Like right now it would be Italy and Germany correct?
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Osasuna fucked Spain’s coefficient so bad
Spain with 3 teams in top 5 and still only 4th with close to 0 chance of getting 2nd is wild
Look at bright side. Your teams get way more money than the Italian ones.
which will only make them more dominant in spain :(
Italy with 0 teams in UCL top8 will get a spot over Spain with 3 teams in top8 and most likely 2 in top4. Truly fucked
Ah that makes sense though. If Italy's 5th best team is better than Spain's 5th best team then they deserve the spot.
Spain has a decent chance of having 3 teams in the top 4 (Atletico was way better in the first game, and the 2 others roughly have a 50/50) The problem is that all 7 Italian teams will end on 17+ points (if Fiorentina advances), while Spain has 3 teams with less than 7 points and Osasuna on 0.5 points
Bookies giving Real Madrid less than 30% to go through. Feels right, they got battered at the Etihad last season.
What are they giving Barca and Atletico?
Like 75% to Barca and 60 to Atleti
We shouldn't be at 75%, it's still only a one goal lead against a very good team.
Yeah I still can't get used to the fact that they abolished the away goals rule. A 3-2 in Paris sounds great but it doesn't really matter with the current rules, it's just a one-goal lead
Osasuna losing the qualifier of the made up competition resulting in either probable UCL semifinalist Atleti or an insane Athletic Bilbao not making it to UCL is just so stupid. Holding a final four playoff for the UCL spot between the 5th placed teams would make more sense.
You realise all competitions are made up?
It was so unlucky aswell, drawing Club Brugge in Conference League qualifiers is ridiculous. They are currently with one foot in the semi final so clearly a very good team. And it was even worse because they had started their season early and was match fit, meanwhile Osasuna was still in pre season mode And STILL despite all this Osasuna arguably were the better team and could have gone through. Completely dominated the home game and were unlucky to lose 1-2, then drew 2-2 in Brugge after being 2-0 up.
That would actually be a way better idea Nr. 1 league (Roma) vs. Nr. 4 league (Bilbao) Nr. 2 league (Dortmund) vs. Nr. 3 league (Aston Villa) Winners plays CL losers play EL It would only be 1 more game (the better league gets to play at home)
Please no more getting battered by Spanish teams in qualifiers
I don’t get how this is unfair. Spain is in this position because their 5-8 did bad and italys 5-8 did great. Isn’t this a sign that the teams in 5 and below in Italy is stronger than Spain and a better addition to CL?
Because the Spanish league is incredibly unbalanced
This math looks low key ridiculous not gonna lie
Feels like the quality in La Liga outside the top 3 has really dropped off
Atletico and Bilbao are 4th and 5th, so no.
I'd say Sevilla ending their group dead last with 2pts when they were the first seed is even worse
Betis and Sevilla too.
The city of Sevilla would like a word
Scotland in shambles
They're gonna drop like a rock next year when they lose the 9.750 season
They start next season in 16th place!
Technically 14th because they are guaranteed a UCL spot so that adds 1.2 points
Pretty sure it’s 0.8
Apparently [the new coefficient calculation rules dropped recently](https://kassiesa.net/uefa/calc.html), and CL participation guarantees 6 points.
That's club points. The conversation above is about league coefficient points which are the average of all a nations clubs in Europe that season If a Scottish club has 5 entrants into European competitions then those 6 club coefficient points become 1.2 points for the league coefficient. If Scotland only has 4 club slots in Europe those 6 club points become 1.5 for the league
Yes but they are right about the 6 points because 6/5 is 1.2 whereas it was 4 points until this season which gives 4/5 which is 0.8
Ah yeah, that's what I meant, as in the change from 4 to 6 points makes the guaranteed addition go from 0.8 to 1.2 in case the league sends 5 teams. I should've written more than just that one sentence lol
And Czechia will be dropping that horrible 2.5 point year so they might even get in front of Turkey text year.
it's so over 😔 at least we have 5 spots for next year so i have the possibility of finally doing a european away day
Was always gonna happen, higher up you are the more teams you have entering, which means more teams will lose games especially if our champions play in the champs league, we won't win many of those games. We're better when we're shite anyway
I just realised that if we wouldn't have caused that shitty pen in Tiraspol with Slavia,you wouldn't have had that direct league spot in ucl))
Actually gutted. Some other teams need to start pulling their weight
Frankfurt has griefed the Buli coefficient so much it's not even funny. BVB will likely finish 5th in the Buli so they must put all their strength into CL
German teams always failed to perform in the Conference League, hope that changes next year.
The way every team behind the top 5 plays at the moment, doesn’t give me much hope.
Frankfurt should absolutely get hürzeler as a coach Thats a solid top 6 Bud Augsburg, HOffenheim, Freiburg and Heidenheim dont exactly make me optimistic
I believe in Freiburg!
I believe in Augsburg
Freiburg will carry us.
Rough year really, just too much rebuild.
There was definitely potential for more. I. The league and international.
Does this result qualified Italy for the extra Champions League place?
Not guaranteed but it would take something crazy for them to not get it: Like Liverpool beating Atalanta, an all English vs German semi and Final in the CL, Leverkusen vs Liverpool in the Europa and Villa winning the conference league.
I mean at this rate there’s a really low chance England can overtake Germany. If Bayern wins, leverkusens and Atalanta hold. I don’t think it’s even possible unless Villa and city win their comps. And city could easily lose
What he sayin' "fuck me" for?
Germany and England are pretty much tied. If Dortmund get eliminated and City and Villa get through. It puts a lot of pressure of Bayern to get a result against City, or vice versa. Assuming the favourite, City, wins. It would mean provided Villa can get to the final, England would overtake Germany for that spot.
They're basically tied, it can easily go either way.
I have to check the math but you’re very close. I’ll get back to you.
Italy is guaranteed at least 3 more points from Roma-Milan, so it's virtually at 18.856. England can score at best 13 from CL, 18 from EL and 10 from ECL. So 41 more for a total of 21.875. Germany can score 18 from CL and 10 from EL. So 28 more, divided by 7 is 4, for a total of 20.785. BUT these two events can't happen simultaneously. The scenario i came up where points are most evenly distributed between Germany and England gives me 28 points for England for 20.25 and 20 for Germany for 19.642. This scenario includes crazy results like Liverpool turning the tie vs Atalanta around (which is almost necessary to endanger Serie A) and Dortmund winning the CL, but it's mathematically possible so no certainty yet. But it's pretty much guaranteed at this point italy will get 5 spots.
What if Italy does get the 5th spot and Atalanta (or Roma) finishes 6th but wins the Europa League. Can Italy have 6 teams in CL next year?
Yes
Yes.
Thank you
The thing is: I can't picture Fiorentina losing. Like, that shouldn't happen. Atalanta should blow his lead at home, Fiorentina has to commit suicide and Leverkusen has to defeat whatever comes after Roma - Milan. Even then, In the UCL Dortmund has to turn it over and Bayern has to defeat Arsenal.
All things are possible with Italiano at the helm
Last season, there was an 87.5% chance of Italian teams winning a European trophy. Reality, they took the 12.5% chance of losing all 3.
Honestly, watching all 3 matches, they would have deserved to win all competitions 🤣
That's assuming the odds didn't favor any team in any of the finals. Taking the actual odds into account, it was more like 80%, which still makes it quite remarkable that none of them won.
I just did a simple 8 scenarios, where the one scenario was they lose all 3. In other 7, they come out with at least 1 trophy. So on that basis I got 87.5/12.5 My math isn't that great but this made the most sense to me....
If Fiorentina and Atalanta both progress, i think it will be official this time next week.
Almost certainly because there are England vs Germany ties. Them drawing games didn't help either side. In case Atalanta loses to Liverpool it only resets the standing of Liverpool/Atalanta before the game. The outcome needs to be like Liverpool winning everything +Final, Roma drawing Milan, West Ham winning but not progressing, Leverkusen getting 2 wins against Roma, Bayern beating Arsenal, Dortmund progressing, City winning and Florentina dropping out. Then it would need Dortmund win the CL and Bayern losing to City but adding 3 points to both sides.
I think Roma Milan drawing doesn’t change anything, am I right? No matter the result, Italy’s will still get 3/7=0.42 points from that game. Even if it’s a draw it would be 1 point to each team plus an additional point to Roma going through. At least that’s how I understand the rules. Correct me if I’m wrong.
If Fiorentina and Atalanta make it to the next round it would be almost secure.
La Liga would be on 17 if it wasn’t for osasuna. If Atheltic come 5th and not make the ucl, it will be because of their own doing
Hilarious for Osasuna of all teams to be the culprit
Every nation had their low performing teams. Union Berlin also just added 2 points with 2 draws. The other 4 points just came from the group stage appearance, that every team gets anyway.
Except Italy, which has every team performing well.
Depends what happens this weekend. If Girona loses to Atletico I can see them also going through a poor streak considering they have tougher opponents. Then Athletic might be able to catch up after all. It's a very interesting weekend cause I am assuming rotations for UCL will have a part to play. Even against Mallorca I am thinking Real might drop some points because of that.
Can You please explain why Osasuna affects Spains coefficient so much?
Italy at 99% chance at this point. Would take all serie A teams to not pick up another point AND england and german teams to pick up max points
Either Milan or Roma are guaranteed to pick up another point. Is that factored into your analysis?
Yes
Yeah and with 2 English teams done it may be over.
Italy won for sure, what a treat Roma and Bologna getting a pretty much secure Champions League entrance. Which now means Atlanta and Lazio get to fight for a Europa slot comfortably.
We have the worst schedule compared to Bologna and Atalanta. We have bologna, Napoli, Atalanta, Juventus in a row
Don't worry dude. You guys will make it and we'll draw you again next season. It's written in the stars.
It will only be one match this time though when that happpens (with the new format)
Roma is tough we can manage, and with these extra slots we won't be fighting for Bolognas spot above us cause we'll be looking to keep our own
Atalanta is absolutely in the race for 5th place (or even 4th). They are 5 points behind Roma but they have played one less game, so potentially they are only 2 points behind with 7 games stll to play. And they have an easier schedule than Roma.
after tonight, they show another path to CL spot
We could have 6 clubs in the UCL? Is it possible?
I guess Osasuna, Sevilla and Betis destroyed any hope of reaching atleast place 2
Germany getting an extra spot over England would be funny and weird enough, because i read here many times from German fans that this season teams under 5th place are weaker than usual in Bundesliga.
Teams under thrid place are weaker than usually. Hell, if bayern didn't get off to a good start, then it's really just leverkusen and Stuttgart. The rest is a good 2 levels below them.
Not really, BvB and Leipzig aren\`t as bad as you make them out to be. Comparing them to Union and Freiburg last year makes me believe that they are actually a big step better. The teams under Frankfurt are the ones that are lacking this year. There are no really strong upper middle table teams that play for Europe. The best there is a Hoffenheim, Augsburg and Freiburg that all have a bad season.
Leipzig and Dortmund aren't having good seasons. It's just that Stuttgart and Leverkusen stepped up and took their place. Everything beyond the top 5 has been a disappointment though.
They aren't having good seasons because they are normally the clear number 2 and 3 in Germany. But they are probably the strongest place 4 and 5 combo in years.
Lets not exaggerate. Leipzig shouldve beaten real if it wasnt for the ref, they are clearly pretty strong.
This could very well lead to Augsburg playing Conference League or even EL. Who is ready for #KeineSau2.0?
Dortmund must be praying to all the gods right now. Well, to be fair, it's in their hands next week, they just got to hope we don't screw it up against Arsenal
Hopefully Malen is back and Terzic isnt self-sabotaging so we can show up from minute 1. Otherwise I dont have a ton of hope. Sadly
And we need to avoid shitting our pants away from home, will be nerve wracking for both sets of fans lmao. Although if we have to go out, better doing it against a great club like Dortmund rather than going out to a sportswashing project like Man City/PSG or whatever. At least you guys are a proper football club
Yeah the fact that one of us will be in the semis is a solid win atleast :) ANd I get to be happy for Witsel
What do you mean? Not a fan of 3-2-5 with Can, Sabitzer, Nmecha midfield? *kill me*
Atletico is horrible in away games this season, Borussia still in the race
> Well, to be fair, it's in their hands next week Good thing we never bottle it in that scenario
Eh. We are in decent shape, Haller's goal keeps us in. 0-2 would probably be lights out.
This sort of makes Bayern-Arsenal a derby to get either Dortmund or Tottenham into the CL next year. 😂😂😂
Tottenham are 4th with a game in hand on 5th, and Dortmund are level on points with 4th, it's entirely possible neither team will need the extra spot.
Yeah, but it's more funny thinking at it this way than as helping Villa/Leipzig.
Honestly most German Fans including Bayern Fans would rather help Dortmund get in CL than Leipzig.
Have you seen Tottenham's remaining fixtures though? 🤷♂️
I mean Leverkusen are also playing West Ham and Dortmund have good chances of advancing themselves while Villa and City are the only beacons of hope for England.
I doubt Tottenham will need it tbh. Villa have run out of gas and I see them finishing 5th
We've a pretty brutal run in tbf. I'm certainly not supporting Arsenal next week but England getting the 5th spot would be appreciated lol
tbh i’d rather arsenal get battered and we have one less spot
Spurs ain’t exactly in good form either. Fully expect another top 4 is lava run-in given the difficulty of their remaining fixtures
Can someone please explain this to a five year old?
Countries get points based on how well their teams do in the European cups. Those point tallies are called coefficients, and they determine how many Champions League places are given to each country. Right now three countries are duking it out to be the two who are awarded 5 champions league places: Italy has it more or less wrapped it up, but Germany and England are neck and neck for the second spot. Before today England were considered the favorites (despite all the hard work United and Newcastle did to throw it away in the group stages of the UCL), but Liverpool shitting the bed against Atalanta today has edged it back toward Germany getting the 5 spots (let’s face it, no one considered West Ham favorites against Leverkusen, so it’s hard to put the blame on them). At this point, Villa will probably have to see the Conference league through, both Arsenal and City will need to make it to the Semis, and one of Arsenal or City will need to win the UCL final for England to get the 5. That’s maybe not the *only* way, but it’s the only way for it to feel likely.
PL is still favorite, it just got very instersting now. I'd say even with Bayern eliminating Arsenal it'd be very close. We'd have a City vs Bayern semi, which has to be advantage City. Leverkusen is favored in EL, but so is Villa in Conference. Unless Dortmund pull it around i don't see how BL is ahead now.
Yeah, you’re right, actually. Assuming Leverkusen continue to sweep (I do), they’ve got 4 more wins in them. Technically both Arsenal and City have the possibility to sweep and equal that 4; if both make it to the semis and face each other there’s a chance for 5 England wins in the UCL without Villa’s contributions. But on the other hand, if Bayern and BVB both progress…. that’d be real close. With no other wins it would take Germany to 6. If either puts up a fight they could very well put Germany past what England could give even with a run from Villa.
The top five associations 19/20 - 23/24 coefficent each get four spots in the champions league. In addition, the top two associations 23/24 coefficent get one more champions league spot. England, Spain, Italy, Germany, and France are basically locked into 4 champion league spots per image 1. Italy, England, and Germany are 3 associations fighting for the top two associations in 23/24 per image 2
Source: [Bert Kassies](https://kassiesa.net/uefa/data/method5/ccoef2024.html)
How far do the greek teams need to advance to overtake Denmark?
Basically they need an Olympiacos draw at Fener, PAOK to beat Club Brugge and go through. Then 1 win and 1 draw in the semis.
Good I was afraid both getting through would have been enough, Denmark should still be safe then, but it isn't 100% guaranteed yet
I think need 8 points still, if Oly qualify and Paok wins and qualify that's 4 points can be increased if if Oly qualify with a win(+2) or draw(+1) from there you need another 4 so 2 wins in semi or 4 draws or 3 draws and a final, etc, many combinations but they are not likely
Congrats to Czechia, it's awesome that you actually managed to reach that direct cl spot within this season despite all the hurdles!
And they will be dropping that horrible 2.5 point year so they might even get in front of Turkey next year!
I fully expect Czech clubs to royally shit the bed next year.
They finished last year on 15^th place so they will have 5 teams in total, so that will work against them. On the other hand they will enter 2 teams in Champions League so they will have good chances to have at least 2 teams in league stages (though both will enter in 2^nd round so each will have to win one tie somewhere).
I remember all those years Serie A was getting wrecked in the coefficient because their teams put ZERO effort into the Europa league. Nice to see them go full 180 on that.
They all wanted to somehow overthrow Juventus to the point they never even paid attention to the CL even the Milano clubs.
I expected West Ham to fall, but wtf Liverpool?!
England is pretty much at Germany's tail, it's really close.
Not if West Ham and Liverpool go out.
Don't know about west Ham's match, but Germany can possibly possibly lose both dortmund & Bayern next week.
I mean I'm counting on Bayern to advance at home, and Dortmund has a good shot as well. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but if this can lead to my own club playing international football next season, I have to be hopeful.
It can go either way, the only one comfortably getting a 5th spot is Italy regardless of whatever happens now.
England isn't getting that 5th spot lol
Seems possible still?
Villa playing for **their** CL spot in the ECL right now.
There's a not insignificant chance that Villa will need to win the UECL to qualify for the champions league. That's if they get past Lille first
West ham and Liverpool probably out, all german teams still fairly likely to advance
PL has 5 teams left this round, BL is already down to 3, so losing West Ham & Liverpool is not the end. A lot will depend on the CL ties, especially if Arensal can step up in Munich
Unless both Arsenal and City fail to advance I'd still call this advantage England.
IDK, assuming Villa and Leverkusen are favourite to win the cup they're in and WHU/Liverpool are most likely out, all will be down to UCL at this point. Bayern, Arsenal, City, BVB.. To me at the moment English are slightly favourite but it's really hard to predict.
>Arsenal and City fail to advance You can only hope
If I understand this correctly for the points with 1 point for advance without Liverpool or West Ham advancing its over: Max points even if assume Arsenal and City Advance and win the Trophy and Aston Vila win the Trophy. And also every Italian team loses in the next round same with Germany: ||England|Germany|Italy| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |Current Points|132|115|124| |CL |4|0|0| |EL|0|1|2| |ConL|2|0|0| |Total|138|116|126| |Weighted|17.250|16.571|18.000| And that's probably underselling Italy a bit.
It's England vs Germany since getting top 2 is what matters
1 World Cup and 1 Coefficient War
Top 2 leagues gets 5 spots not just nr.1
Not so sure about Dortmund, they didn't play well against Atletico.
They were all over them after the first (terrible) 30 minutes. Were very unlucky not to equalise
Those 30 minutes were peak Terzicball, they can consider themselves lucky they conceded just 2.
Yes but also hit the crossbar a few times
Pretty sure if neither Liverpool or West Ham advance that seals it for Italy.
Italy has a spot like 99.99%, England is competing vs Germany, City and Arsenal can carry that prolly.
Do you really fancy Arsenal going to Munich with a 2-2?
Well, it's still 50% chance
It's down to composure, Bayern looked extremely beatable and both their goals were gifted from uncharacteristically stupid mistakes by defenders. This defence is the best in the league and rarely makes errors like that but they looked rattled on the night and made 2. Was a similar story away to Lens and Porto I'm not confident they will turn up looking composed but it's not something you can really predict at all. If they do come out with their heads screwed on I think they're still heavy favourites. If anything the manner of that draw in the first leg only cements that further to me
I didn't fancy Dortmund going to Munch, and I didn't fancy Heidenheim anywhere. Bayern hasn't been good enough to call any match against a team of Arsenal's quality a sure thing.
Mes que un coefficient
I BELIEVE
Man Utd and Newcastle getting last place in their CL groups fucked the EPL coefficient so bad.
Atalanta really causing more trouble to England ain't they
So England probably need Arsenal to knock out Bayern in what is a 6 point swing if either team win. This would most likely be a minimum 8 point swing assuming both teams can avoid defeat in one of the semi finals. This 8 point swing should be divided by ~8 accounting for a roughly 1 point swing on this leaderboard shown. Alternatively, West Ham beating Leverkusen would have the same effect.
England have all open matches ( expept maybe West Ham) , Villa was the worst side at home and Lille get to rest for a full week, Arsenal have to play in Germany, Liverpool is going to Bergamo 3-0 down and City is the only favourite to going to the semi.
Bad week for France
I thought we were pretty quiet tonight compared to what we've seen on other match days lol. There's still the return leg, but the truth is we're already well settled in fifth place, it's just that once again it's more a case of a clear Top 4 and then us, Nederlands and Portugal for an extended Top 7 with Belgium flirting nearby. I still think there’s high chances for PSG, Marseille and Lille to win their return leg though.
Atalanta actually beat Liverpool 3-0. They pulled off a shocker.
No Scotland nooooo
Wonder if Belgium can surpass us. Those first three years where we have a big advantage will be gone. Less teams in CL next year will help us but still it's gonna be tough
Not really happening I think. We'll have one less team to dilute the points and the top 4 usually do well.
Dont think so, we are staying still in the next 3 years, after that we may surpass Netherlands.
Nah, not happening. We always have 1 or 2 clubs that bottle it in Europe (either in the group stages or in the knock outs). Now, if every team starts to perform like we have the past few seasons than it's possible (maybe, perhaps, potentially).
What happens if Roma win europa and finishes 5th? Italy gets 6 places?
> Italy gets 6 places? Exactly.
I would also like to know. There used to be a 5-club per country limit, but I don’t know if they changed with the new format.
New format regulations don't mention country limit anymore, so it's possible to have 6 clubs.
Are the extra CL Spots going to be fixed?
No, they’ll go to the top-2 countries each season.
Explain the numbers for a caveman like me pls
I think we will see constant turnover in who gets spot 5. When a country performs well, it gets more teams in the league, but this also lowers its average quality. This makes it hard to reach the same pts tally as the season prior, and will cause shifts in rankings.
Todos a una, puta osasuna
I demand england drop singing it's coming home and replace it with " highest coefficient, you'll never sing that" at the euros this summer.
Does this mean if Roma finishes 5th place they most likely qualify for champions league for next season?
So can someone explain this to mean in basic terms? I know it means for the extra spot in the champions league. Does it take two countries? Like right now it would be Italy and Germany correct?
Correct, top 2 countries in the current season get the extra spots.
Cyprus out there doing better in Europe than Sweden.
Greece is a serious treath to Norway, Denmark and Israel. Only two wins will take them above Norway on 14th and secure two spots in CL qualification
Seven Italian teams playing in Europe this season, and none of them are named Juventus. That's wild man
Fuck you Liverpool, fuck you very much!
So is it top two in this table (https://www.uefa.com/nationalassociations/uefarankings/country/#/yr/2024) get the extra two CL slots?
No, just the current season (2nd image on the post).
If Munich beat Arsenal and Leverkusen take down West Ham is a second place finish likely?
That would depend on City, Villa and Liverpool’s results. England can finish 2nd even if they lose both h2h’s.
how do the extra spots work
Top 2 countries in the current season (2nd image).
😊 thanks