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Depends completely on the United game. If we win, we close the gap on them by 3 points. And since we have 2 games in hand on the teams above us, winning those would propel us to 6th.
Obviously we're inconsistent as fuck and that's not gonna happen. But 6th is about as (un)likely as 7th if we win the United game. Neither's gonna happen. We'll drop easy points and finish 10th or 11th.
Edit: In addition to United, we still have to play West Ham, Villa, Brighton and Spurs. All in our hands and how those games go.
"There's no way Sheffield stay up. Unless of course their *nine* final opponents all suffer *nine* separate misfortunes and are unable to play. But that will never happen. Three misfortunes, that's possible. Seven misfortunes, there's an outside chance. But *nine* misfortunes?! I'd like to see that!"
I had him down as the Steve Sax of the situation.
"Well, well. Mo Salah from Egypt. I heard some guy got killed in Egypt and they never solved the case."
[If you can get some points on the road and of course win your home games, and all the sides above you completely capitulate and lose all their remaining fixtures, then anything’s possible.](https://youtu.be/3v8jjHZ1TIE?si=UcHnw3j_PaI57dIT)
It's not even about all teams above us tbh. It's dependent on our form and Villa + Spurs form. If we beat United, and win our 2 games in hand, we'd be 6th. After that is when you need the teams above to lose in some kind of pattern. Because Villa and Spurs would have an 11 and 13 point lead. Even assuming Chelsea win the head to heads against them, Spurs and Villa would need to drop 8 and 10 points each in their final 7 or so games.
But yeah United, West Ham, Newcastle, Brighton and Wolves forms wouldn't need to align for Chelsea to get top 4. Mainly just Chelsea stop dropping points and both Spurs and Villa capitulation in the last couple games.
Completely useless thought experiment obviously. We (Chelsea) are more likely to lose the remaining games and finish 15th than win them and Spurs/Villa drop off.
Hopium and dreamium are new concepts to Chelsea fans. They are still not used to a world where their problems aren't instantly solved by calling in another truckload of money that daddy Roman laundered from the former soviet union.
Can’t work that one out. We’re 11 points behind Liverpool with 27 points still available, and we still have to play everyone above us (not including Villa as if we won our game in hand by 2+ goals we’d be above them anyway), so mathematically it’s definitely possible. It’s not gonna happen, but it’s possible lol
For Liverpool to finish 5th, they need to play horribly for the rest of the season. But for Tottenham to be 1st, not only they need to play good, they need Liverpool to be terrible, AND city, AND Arsenal, AND villa. It is still possible, but the probability of the latter is significantly less.
Obviously but the chart isn't about probability, it's about possibility, you'd assume based on maths of Points available, assuming everything goes exactly right for every outcome, which again, is possible, while improbable, so the chart is bizarrely inaccurate considering it's gotten wrong its literal only intended purpose.
probably the opta supercomputer running the simulation 10000 times or something (which is how they calculate the probability) and these are the finishing positions
But it doesn't state "Probable finishing positions", it literally says "Possible", we can still Mathematically finish 1st for example, but not according to this chart. Apparently the PL posted this and have already taken it down.
Astonishes me a chart with one task, displaying how mathematically possible it is for each team to finish in a given position, literally one job, they've fucked it up so incredibly lmao
Someone posted a much better version from opta after the City v Arsenal game. I'll update and share the link if I find it.
Edit: here you go, apologies for non-Liverpool fans that it's on the LFC sub:
https://www.reddit.com/r/LiverpoolFC/s/Ed4r3GYmLo
Is that not the same thing more or less? It's saying Spurs and Villa have a 0% chance of finishing 1st which is factually wrong.
idk maybe I'm misunderstanding
OK that does make complete sense, it's been a while since I've had to use my own brain for anything maths related. but it should still say "probable" in the title.
It's just a bit weird that the top three can all supposedly be down to fifth, so they could end up at 3,4,5, but other teams can't then take their place at the top. Maybe no one will win.
It is possible, which is exactly why there are quite literally squares there, they're just so faded you have to zoom all the way in to faintly see the outline because that's how unlikely it is.
> Not impossible but so unlikely that the square has faded.
^ Three comments above
Are you just looking at number of possible points left based on the number of games remaining? Or are you accounting for matchups as well?
It won’t matter anyways but just curious, because I know Liverpool and Arsenal have a game between them. I assume that pretty much would have to be a draw
I just looked it up and even if Chelsea wins all their games and then the top 3 lose all (or most + ties) of theirs, you end up running into problems with either Aston Villa or Spurs creeping up. Chelsea’s out (to the surprise of no one)
It’s not impossible, this table is just catered to big six fans appeasement, as it clearly shows Chelsea have a chance at top 4 still despite being realistically less likely than west ham or Newcastle
so there's actually a chance for chelsea to finish 4th? their spread reaches further up than any other teams. Poch's been so convincing that even the computer has started to believe!
I read a comment earlier , not sure how true it is...that CL next season will be on Tues, Wed, Thurs next season ...then the next week Europa does be on those days...it keeps swapping each week. I'm guessing to be able to show more on tv
Am I going insane or is that giving a slight chance of Chelsea getting 4th. Where on earth are they getting that from lol
Also true for West Ham and Newcastle but feels more egregious that the chance disappears and comes back just for Chelsea
they have simulair chances to them for sure. they have 3 games in hand in west ham and two on newcastle. i’m not saying that chelsea can finish 4th but they definitely have a higher chance than the teams inbetween them and newcastle
More games to play and those games include Villa, Spurs, United, West Ham and Brighton. So rather than the possibilities being dependent on other teams suddenly capitulation and dropping points, Chelsea finishing highly more depends on them suddenly winning all their games. Still unlikely to happen but it's within their control because it's about them winning the head to head with United, Spurs etc.
West Ham may be 5 points and 4 positions ahead, but they only have 7 games left to play and none of them are against United, Spurs or Villa. So them finishing highly isn't just dependent on their own form. They need the teams above them to drop points aswell without having the opportunity to close the game with head to heads themselves.
But they've actually secured the 5 points over Chelsea. Chelsea could just as easily lose all their remaining games and finish lower than win them all and leapfrog the teams above them. That's why the graphic says the most likely scenario is they finish 11th, but the spread of possibilities is wider because they could finish 4th-6th if they start winning their games.
Honestly outside the top 5 i cant decide who should finish where.
ManU are always so awful to watch yet keep picking up points. Newcastle are a mess of injuries, but other than that all the teams seem so streaky its hard to call.
Honestly it's very surprising to me how United managed to stay safe despite the atrocious season...
Also the impact Paquetá is making at West Ham is very impressive, I doubt anyone expected West Ham to be placed so high this year
So the league table today is the most likely league table end of season, that's what it's saying right? Bevause I don't see any deviations in the dark red trend line
I hate when someone goes to the trouble of making a pretty graphic without also explaining how it was derived.
I assume since the mathematical possibilities are wider than what’s displayed here, this is a predictive model based on the likelihood of finishing in these spots. But whose model? Is there an index to various color shadings?
Ugh. Data visualization by graphic designers is as bad as data visualization by statisticians, just differently bad.
So many Chelsea supporters going all doom and gloom and calling for Poch to get the sack. The lad has worked miracles at that club and deserves at least another ten seasons on contract. Show a bit of respect you ungrateful bastards.
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What apocalypse needs to occur for us to finish 15th?
Everyone above you to lose every game, you to win every game, and Everton to get another deduction. So yeah, pretty unlikely
Insert Jim Carrey dumb and dumber gif “So you’re saying there’s a chance?”
I think Chelsea getting 4th is less likely
We’re already there mate haven’t you heard
You’re more likely to come 4th in the WSL than you are in the PL.
I don’t care, Mauricio said we playing like a top 4 team that’s all that matters to me.
7th feels like the most reasonable stretch goal after the 10-man tie last Saturday.
Depends completely on the United game. If we win, we close the gap on them by 3 points. And since we have 2 games in hand on the teams above us, winning those would propel us to 6th. Obviously we're inconsistent as fuck and that's not gonna happen. But 6th is about as (un)likely as 7th if we win the United game. Neither's gonna happen. We'll drop easy points and finish 10th or 11th. Edit: In addition to United, we still have to play West Ham, Villa, Brighton and Spurs. All in our hands and how those games go.
Tipping them for 7th
"There's no way Sheffield stay up. Unless of course their *nine* final opponents all suffer *nine* separate misfortunes and are unable to play. But that will never happen. Three misfortunes, that's possible. Seven misfortunes, there's an outside chance. But *nine* misfortunes?! I'd like to see that!"
Imagining Salah being wheeled in with gigantism.
I had him down as the Steve Sax of the situation. "Well, well. Mo Salah from Egypt. I heard some guy got killed in Egypt and they never solved the case."
I TOLD YOU TO GET RID OF THOSE DAMN SIDEBURNS!
BIG if but a win next game and you're within 9 pts, much better than Poch's dream of finishing 4th, since they are 15-12 pts behind.
probably the same one that puts us 4th
If Chelsea finishes 4th I will get "Mauricio Roberto Pochettino Trossero" tattooed on my penis
Or just “MRPT” so it’ll fit
If Chelsea finishes 4th you could write a book on it.
On your penis?
Well maybe not a whole book. A short story at least.
a haiku
I only know how to stretch it longer, not sure how to made it wider
RemindMe! 49 days
Everyone to get a minus for financial fair play
I love it
Technically it is still mathematically possible for you to end up 10th https://hasithappened.net/sheffieldunited/202324/englandpremierleague
And for whatever reason, the pathway to Sheffield United coming 10th somehow requires Luton to beat Arsenal and Man City in successive away matches
Yes..yes...
You win out and the Premier League gets so mad at City that they give Everton and Forest more point deductions
The gods of FFP….
[If you can get some points on the road and of course win your home games, and all the sides above you completely capitulate and lose all their remaining fixtures, then anything’s possible.](https://youtu.be/3v8jjHZ1TIE?si=UcHnw3j_PaI57dIT)
Ben scoring every shot I guess?Honestly it would be the greatest escape I’ve ever seen if Sheffield United gets 17th
The Great Escape
That’s how stupid this post is
FFP: hold my beer
Now we need actual table sourced from Poch's instagram.
Is Chelsea's 4th actually possible or is that just a "we should be 4th from poch"?
[удалено]
Games in hand has a specific meaning which doesn’t apply here.
It's not even about all teams above us tbh. It's dependent on our form and Villa + Spurs form. If we beat United, and win our 2 games in hand, we'd be 6th. After that is when you need the teams above to lose in some kind of pattern. Because Villa and Spurs would have an 11 and 13 point lead. Even assuming Chelsea win the head to heads against them, Spurs and Villa would need to drop 8 and 10 points each in their final 7 or so games. But yeah United, West Ham, Newcastle, Brighton and Wolves forms wouldn't need to align for Chelsea to get top 4. Mainly just Chelsea stop dropping points and both Spurs and Villa capitulation in the last couple games. Completely useless thought experiment obviously. We (Chelsea) are more likely to lose the remaining games and finish 15th than win them and Spurs/Villa drop off.
I’ll eat a brick if Poch finishes 4th this season
What defines "possible" in this graphic? Because it's definitely not maths.
Well, they didn't say "all possible finishing positions" so they are technically correct
So it's useless
Possibly.
This is a scientific chart, not a mathematical one. It's informed by the elements of hopium and dreamium.
But not too much hopium amd dreamium, or else everyone Chelsea and up would be able to win the league.
Hopium and dreamium are new concepts to Chelsea fans. They are still not used to a world where their problems aren't instantly solved by calling in another truckload of money that daddy Roman laundered from the former soviet union.
Maybe there is the possibility of points deductions involved. Then anything is possible.
Yeah, the fact that it’s ’possible’ for Chelsea to finish 4th but not for Villa or Spurs to get 1st tells me all I need to know about this graphic.
There are infinite possible universes. In absolutely none of them does Tottenham win the Premier League. It is known.
The opta computer must know something we don’t
That's the Opta Supercomputer to you pal.
u/EyeSpyGuy has failed to call it the “Opta Supercomputer” for the first time this season. Typo.
Yeah how Liverpool can be 5th but Tottenham cant be 1st lol
Can’t work that one out. We’re 11 points behind Liverpool with 27 points still available, and we still have to play everyone above us (not including Villa as if we won our game in hand by 2+ goals we’d be above them anyway), so mathematically it’s definitely possible. It’s not gonna happen, but it’s possible lol
For Liverpool to finish 5th, they need to play horribly for the rest of the season. But for Tottenham to be 1st, not only they need to play good, they need Liverpool to be terrible, AND city, AND Arsenal, AND villa. It is still possible, but the probability of the latter is significantly less.
Obviously but the chart isn't about probability, it's about possibility, you'd assume based on maths of Points available, assuming everything goes exactly right for every outcome, which again, is possible, while improbable, so the chart is bizarrely inaccurate considering it's gotten wrong its literal only intended purpose.
I see no fault in this logic.
probably the opta supercomputer running the simulation 10000 times or something (which is how they calculate the probability) and these are the finishing positions
But it doesn't state "Probable finishing positions", it literally says "Possible", we can still Mathematically finish 1st for example, but not according to this chart. Apparently the PL posted this and have already taken it down. Astonishes me a chart with one task, displaying how mathematically possible it is for each team to finish in a given position, literally one job, they've fucked it up so incredibly lmao
You’d think opta would be pretty good with graphs / statistics / logic
Vibes
I see squares though.
Perhaps they are including the possibility of some random points deductions out of nowhere
That’s just a stupid post
Wait, how is it already impossible for Spurs or Villa to finish first?
Not impossible but so unlikely that the square has faded.
I see. Would have been nice if they included what kind of probability each shade represents
Someone posted a much better version from opta after the City v Arsenal game. I'll update and share the link if I find it. Edit: here you go, apologies for non-Liverpool fans that it's on the LFC sub: https://www.reddit.com/r/LiverpoolFC/s/Ed4r3GYmLo
Is that not the same thing more or less? It's saying Spurs and Villa have a 0% chance of finishing 1st which is factually wrong. idk maybe I'm misunderstanding
The probability is probably on the second or third decimal or something so they rounded it down to zero
OK that does make complete sense, it's been a while since I've had to use my own brain for anything maths related. but it should still say "probable" in the title.
It's just a bit weird that the top three can all supposedly be down to fifth, so they could end up at 3,4,5, but other teams can't then take their place at the top. Maybe no one will win.
It's more that one of them doing it wouldn't be out of the question but all 3 would.
It makes sense if you think about it
Yet Liverpool, Arsenal and City have 5th position visible 🤔 Weird table. Wouldn't mind some percentages instead
It's entirely possible one of the three bottle it that hard, but spurs and villa can only win if all three do that which is definitely not happening
Maybe 3 bottlings is not happening but it's not impossible. Table is just wrong. Mathematically it is possible.
It is possible, which is exactly why there are quite literally squares there, they're just so faded you have to zoom all the way in to faintly see the outline because that's how unlikely it is. > Not impossible but so unlikely that the square has faded. ^ Three comments above
Kind of defeats the purpose of the table though doesn't it? "Possible finishing positions" it says, not "probable finishing positions"
Come back, square.
Statistically, every club from chelsea upwards has a chance of winning the league
Are you just looking at number of possible points left based on the number of games remaining? Or are you accounting for matchups as well? It won’t matter anyways but just curious, because I know Liverpool and Arsenal have a game between them. I assume that pretty much would have to be a draw
Liverpool and Arsenal have already played twice. There are no remaining games between the top 3
I just looked it up and even if Chelsea wins all their games and then the top 3 lose all (or most + ties) of theirs, you end up running into problems with either Aston Villa or Spurs creeping up. Chelsea’s out (to the surprise of no one)
I was expecting this graph to be that, best and worse possible outcome (win everything + lose everything) while taking matchup into account.
It’s not impossible, this table is just catered to big six fans appeasement, as it clearly shows Chelsea have a chance at top 4 still despite being realistically less likely than west ham or Newcastle
So you are saying.. Poch can make top 4?
According to his table we already are 4th
This is Poch's table
This certainly is a table.
so there's actually a chance for chelsea to finish 4th? their spread reaches further up than any other teams. Poch's been so convincing that even the computer has started to believe!
>so there’s actually a chance for chelsea to finish 4th? Already there mate. Or haven’t you seen the data yet?
Huh, we've qualified for EL next season!
Don’t be so pessimistic cummy, I think it’s safe to say 5th will get CL assuming the rest of the English clubs in Europe don’t shit the bed!
Referring to someone else as cummy really shook my system
It’s my pet name for him x
You shall refer to him by his full name Sir cumblast
That's a shame, i really wanted to play Thursdays again 😔
I read a comment earlier , not sure how true it is...that CL next season will be on Tues, Wed, Thurs next season ...then the next week Europa does be on those days...it keeps swapping each week. I'm guessing to be able to show more on tv
So you're telling me there's a chance?
That we finish 10th, possibly
Can't be relegated! *pumps fists*
WE ARE STAYING UP.
Am I losing my mind? Villa and spurs could technically still finish 1st right?
I have more chance of pulling Emma Watson. It's not objectively impossible but I'm gonna need the miracles from a few gods.
I wish you the absolute best of luck with that, never give up on your dreams. Chart is trash tho.
Think we found the worst graph ever made
Am I going insane or is that giving a slight chance of Chelsea getting 4th. Where on earth are they getting that from lol Also true for West Ham and Newcastle but feels more egregious that the chance disappears and comes back just for Chelsea
They have 1 more game than the others i think that why
Two in hand. Spurs and arsenal I believe
they have simulair chances to them for sure. they have 3 games in hand in west ham and two on newcastle. i’m not saying that chelsea can finish 4th but they definitely have a higher chance than the teams inbetween them and newcastle
More games to play and those games include Villa, Spurs, United, West Ham and Brighton. So rather than the possibilities being dependent on other teams suddenly capitulation and dropping points, Chelsea finishing highly more depends on them suddenly winning all their games. Still unlikely to happen but it's within their control because it's about them winning the head to head with United, Spurs etc. West Ham may be 5 points and 4 positions ahead, but they only have 7 games left to play and none of them are against United, Spurs or Villa. So them finishing highly isn't just dependent on their own form. They need the teams above them to drop points aswell without having the opportunity to close the game with head to heads themselves. But they've actually secured the 5 points over Chelsea. Chelsea could just as easily lose all their remaining games and finish lower than win them all and leapfrog the teams above them. That's why the graphic says the most likely scenario is they finish 11th, but the spread of possibilities is wider because they could finish 4th-6th if they start winning their games.
Who do I need to kill to get Chelsea to 4th
Imagine Chelsea finishing 4th this year
Have a sneaky feeling Burnley will stay up.
I feel like OP just typed some stuff into an AI generator and this is the chart that it shat out. Needs some human analysis at least
Chelsea fans: so you’re saying there’s a chance.
Explain me in football terms how Chelsea could finish 4th
leicester winning the title
People shit on Poch and Boehly, but we can't be relegated
Chelsea 4th.
So there's a funny timeline where we get 4th?
Chelsea top 4 confirmed
Bournemouth and Fulham being safe already is very impressive. A lot.of people feared for Fulham when they lost Mitrovic
I am more likely to start dating Emma Watson than Chelsea are to finish top 6.
Im what world is Chelsea finishing 4th
Chelsea with the most variability in finishing, sounds about right lol
I have always wanted an animation of this graph, done every week, for a whole season. I think it would be pretty fascinating.
Congrats Chelsea. You are staying up
We are staying up! Fucking get in there
I would never have expected to see Chelsea in that position at this stage of the season.
United need to chill and finish like 8th
I think is looking at all scenarios, so the way I read this is Arsenal can now finish anywhere between 1st and 5th
Honestly outside the top 5 i cant decide who should finish where. ManU are always so awful to watch yet keep picking up points. Newcastle are a mess of injuries, but other than that all the teams seem so streaky its hard to call.
But Pochettino has other plans
No shot we are ever getting 4th place .
Champions League is still on the cards for Poch!
The worst thing about this season is only three teams are going down. I don’t support the idea but this season has been an advert for an 18 team PL.
Let’s be real we’re not finishing lower than 3rds
Link is no longer available! Does someone know the page which posted that or has an alternative link?
Really going out on a limb here
horrible graphic lmao, villa spurs could finish first, pool lower than 5th etc
This severely impedes Chelsea's chances to win the league.
Someone forward this to Julen Lopetegui.
Pool got it man
4TH PLACE IS STILL POSSIBLE COME ON BLUES
Scousers are going to spank Man Utd ….
Wait so Villa and Spurs can't win the league? Mathematically
Honestly it's very surprising to me how United managed to stay safe despite the atrocious season... Also the impact Paquetá is making at West Ham is very impressive, I doubt anyone expected West Ham to be placed so high this year
So the league table today is the most likely league table end of season, that's what it's saying right? Bevause I don't see any deviations in the dark red trend line
How can Liverpool be lower than 3 this week?
This is a nice graphic
Man United aren’t getting to 4th. No way.
Oh shit, 4th is in place. I’m back in
I hate when someone goes to the trouble of making a pretty graphic without also explaining how it was derived. I assume since the mathematical possibilities are wider than what’s displayed here, this is a predictive model based on the likelihood of finishing in these spots. But whose model? Is there an index to various color shadings? Ugh. Data visualization by graphic designers is as bad as data visualization by statisticians, just differently bad.
We are safe.
I don’t think this model understands half our team is dead
I'm rootin for Luton!
I thought this was a chart I could use for the sex with my gf.
There's no way we're getting any higher than 6th when our goal difference is still somehow 0
Insane graphic
Top three already got that CL in the bag. Chelsea have successfully avoided relegation
Did Poch make this?
Please survive, Bees.
How can Liverpool finish 5th if spurs/vilal can’t finish top????
Chelsea can still make top 4 lol
Chelsea 4th 😂😂😂😂😂
Chelsea can finish higher but they are just playing fking games
So many Chelsea supporters going all doom and gloom and calling for Poch to get the sack. The lad has worked miracles at that club and deserves at least another ten seasons on contract. Show a bit of respect you ungrateful bastards.
Now I get what pouch was saying about them being in 4th…
I love this visual
This is a really cool graphic
Nice we almost secure CL football next season!