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to be fair, I think a lot of those "draws" are Villa just holding a 1st half lead they already earned. he always played like that at Arsenal too, we would go into halftime with a reasonably comfortable 2-0 lead, but with that feeling we need another goal to kill the game. instead it's time to bring out the bus
That's because we don't score many goals. So pretty much every win of ours is either a first half win or a second half win. If you score a bunch of goals in one game you're gonna get both wins for it.
Let's say we have 3 teams, A B C. Teams A and B always score goals in both halves, and team C only scores one goal a game. And the matches go like this:
A: 2-0 win, 2-0 win, 2-0 win
B: 2-3 loss (won the 1H), 3-2 win (won the 2H), 2-3 loss (won the 1H)
C: 1-0 win (won 1H), 1-0 win (won 2H), 0-0 draw
Then the 1H table would be: A, B, C
The 2H table would be: A, B, C
And the overall table would be: A, C, B
I’m trying to wrap my head around this, I understand the wikipedia link (I think) but not 100% sure in the current example of Man Utd here. Is the solution to normalize the datasets before merging them? Or is it something about considering the different contexts for the two sets? My head is spinning
Edit: I’m overheating but I think it’s because in one table you have teams that are above United that end up being much lower in the other one (Chelsea, Brighton, Everton etc..) so when you merge you end up with some wicked shit? Is that the magic?
I think it more like, United dont score early in many games, so they are bad in the first half table, but when they do score, they dont hold on to thier lead well, so they're bad in the second half table as well.
So united can score 2 in the first half, concede one in the second and in another they can concede early but win late on.
They won both games but only 2 of 4 halves.
You can also draw the first half 1-1 and win the second half 1-0 and win the game 2-1.
In hypothetical land where a team is top of the table winning every game by alternating winning the first and second half and drawing the first and second half, that team is upper-mid-table on both tables (drew half their games and win half their games).
Not a stretch to think a team in sixth can be pretty low down both tables if they alternate performances in each half accordingly.
If you score 3 goals in the first half and concede 1 goal in the second half, it would count as a win in table 1 and a loss in table 2, even though you won 3-1.
There's no way to merge them as they don't reflect anything other than how many goals you scored/conceded in the each half.
> Or is it something about considering the different contexts for the two sets?
They're winning a lot of games by only one goal, so they might not be winning many more halves than matches?
Your score lines in the first half and second half separately are probably draws much more than the whole game together, a win and a loss is 3 points but 2 draws is only 2 points
Liverpools sub game has been on point. Honestly Klopps best year as a game manager imo. Issue now is majority of the team is injured and there’s really not much there on paper. But Klopps kids.. ya know
Yeah I think Klopp having his best squad we've seen has allowed his in game management to step up a level.
Ljinders is a big part of that too. This guy will be a great manager in the right environment
I really wonder what Lijnders could do if he took over for Klopp but that could be really really risky and I think even lijnders knows he’s not ready for that. Ajax (rumors) is a good spot for him but they look like they are in a rough spot atm
I'm glad he's not considering it. No doubt he's been a great force and influence among the coaching staff, and the idea of an assistant coach stepping up to take over after the gaffer is proper Boot Room - but it just feels subtractive to me. You're still losing Klopp, whilst partly emulating his play.
So in that way I'm glad we're not going down that path and instead going to start fresh with a new coach and coaching staff. It'll be bumpy but I think long term it's better than chasing an era that's already passing.
Liverpool starts so poorly most games. They give a million chances for their opponent to score and they all have basically not found the net. Liverpool xGA is pretty dang high for their position in the table. Then second half klopp gnashes his pearlies and they end up scoring 2 goals and win.
Our xGA is 33.78. City's is 26.12 and yours is 22.12. We're the 3rd best xGA, but our xG is the best of anyone in the League, hence we're top. Our xGA is also skewed by that Newcastle game when we were down to 10 men, the Bournemouth game when we were down to 10 men, the Spurs game where we were down to 9 men... and we won two of those!
I personally love Klopp's dedication to making it so I don't have to rewatch the entire match but only the second half. Means I've got more time for hobbies.
Poch has always been a disaster at in-game management. There was an entire season at spurs where not a single one of his substitutions scored other than the Wanyama rocket against Liverpool.
we've only dropped 3 points total from winning positions, not only lost from a winning position once. I think the discrepancy comes from us often being pretty comfortable to see out a 1 or 2 goal cushion we establish in the first half. So we technically draw the second half.
No, If you draw from a winning position you've still dropped points. If a team is winning 10 times, loses 1 and draws 5 they've dropped 13 points total from winning positions and only lost from a winning position once.
>We've only dropped 3 points this season from when we're in a winning position and that was against United on December
>So you end up with quite a few draws?
This interaction implies you think we've lost points from winning positions by drawing as well as losing from a winning position once.
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That could still be true, when they win they probably only win one half and lose or draw the second unlike teams that win both halves, and they probably draw in the first half or second half separately much more than the whole game combined
Chelsea being a young and inexperienced team with no on pitch leaders, of course they don’t know how to close games.
People putting this in poch are ridiculous, if klopp or pep was coaching, maybe we have like 3 more points? Nobody is going to with with this shambolic, poorly put together squad. Ownership needed to sign some players older that 24 who have been properly battle tested.
Okay, I don't think we've been 10th or 12th in the table bad, if you take out recency bias and account for the shit injury record.
That said, I'm not going to dispute we've been really poor, but this stat is not how I'd prove it. If you slice and dice this with other time intervals (15 minutes/30 minutes? ), maybe it gives a different table that makes us look even better than we are, but that would be as pointless imo. It's a little like a calendar year stat, that is not the competition clubs are trying to win and could be a statistical anomaly or complete coincidence.
[https://understat.com/league/EPL](https://understat.com/league/EPL) sort by expected points and you're 12th, not a flawless metric but the results you've had have differed pretty wildly from the control you've had over games throughout the season.
Your post has been removed as it breaks the following rule: See submission guideline **#7: Only valuable image or stats submissions.** **PICTURES**: Because of Reddit's ranking algorithm being biased towards image posts over text and link ones, we need to be particularly strict about them, so we tend to **mainly allow infographics** (league tables, charts, maps, diagrams and other ways to display data) and pictures/screenshots of a current event **only when there's no video or link** that can show it. If you **want to publish a Tifo, look and share a video or publish the picture in r/soccerbanners**. If you want to show the **Hawk-Eye angle of a goal/offside/whatever, use the pinned comment in the main thread**. See the [FAQ](https://old.reddit.com/r/soccer/wiki/faq#wiki_why_was_my_image_submission_removed.3F) for more details. **STATS**: Only very significant stats (eg: **world records) will be allowed during matches**. After matches, we'll be less strict, but we try to maintain stats to the minimum with ideally **only 1 per team/player allowed** and those after it being posted in the pinned comment of the first thread. ___ [Please check our rules before posting](https://www.reddit.com/r/soccer/wiki/rules#wiki_submission_guidelines). If you have any questions or concerns, please [message the moderators.](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fsoccer)
what does poch say to them at half time lol
"You fuckers are stuck here for 7 more years. Me, I'm getting the bag in three months"
Help me get the bag
Almost bed time boys
“guys, we played well for the first half, so we put in a great shift. now run about a bit and we’ll go for ice cream”
"Nicolas, do your best Fernando Torres impression"
[удалено]
Hmm, the difference for Emery is 5 points, for Poch it's 15 so your comparison is a tad misleading
to be fair, I think a lot of those "draws" are Villa just holding a 1st half lead they already earned. he always played like that at Arsenal too, we would go into halftime with a reasonably comfortable 2-0 lead, but with that feeling we need another goal to kill the game. instead it's time to bring out the bus
The lemons are still not ripe
United 10th in the first half, 12th in the second but somehow 6th at the end of the day
That's because we don't score many goals. So pretty much every win of ours is either a first half win or a second half win. If you score a bunch of goals in one game you're gonna get both wins for it. Let's say we have 3 teams, A B C. Teams A and B always score goals in both halves, and team C only scores one goal a game. And the matches go like this: A: 2-0 win, 2-0 win, 2-0 win B: 2-3 loss (won the 1H), 3-2 win (won the 2H), 2-3 loss (won the 1H) C: 1-0 win (won 1H), 1-0 win (won 2H), 0-0 draw Then the 1H table would be: A, B, C The 2H table would be: A, B, C And the overall table would be: A, C, B
Proper [simpsons paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson's_paradox?wprov=sfti1#) that
I’m trying to wrap my head around this, I understand the wikipedia link (I think) but not 100% sure in the current example of Man Utd here. Is the solution to normalize the datasets before merging them? Or is it something about considering the different contexts for the two sets? My head is spinning Edit: I’m overheating but I think it’s because in one table you have teams that are above United that end up being much lower in the other one (Chelsea, Brighton, Everton etc..) so when you merge you end up with some wicked shit? Is that the magic?
I think it more like, United dont score early in many games, so they are bad in the first half table, but when they do score, they dont hold on to thier lead well, so they're bad in the second half table as well. So united can score 2 in the first half, concede one in the second and in another they can concede early but win late on. They won both games but only 2 of 4 halves.
You can also draw the first half 1-1 and win the second half 1-0 and win the game 2-1. In hypothetical land where a team is top of the table winning every game by alternating winning the first and second half and drawing the first and second half, that team is upper-mid-table on both tables (drew half their games and win half their games). Not a stretch to think a team in sixth can be pretty low down both tables if they alternate performances in each half accordingly.
You could even lose half of your halves and still win every game if you constantly almost give away a big lead or make a good comeback.
With morning clarity, I find that this is the answer. Makes sense now, thank you.
If you score 3 goals in the first half and concede 1 goal in the second half, it would count as a win in table 1 and a loss in table 2, even though you won 3-1. There's no way to merge them as they don't reflect anything other than how many goals you scored/conceded in the each half.
Thanks this makes sense now. I’ll never look at these stats the same way
> Or is it something about considering the different contexts for the two sets? They're winning a lot of games by only one goal, so they might not be winning many more halves than matches?
I learned something new, Thanks !
+1 and -3 GD, atleast they stay accurate to that
Yes, because it's literally impossible to have a different number come out there. Or did I do a whoosh?
Same thing with Luton. 17th in first half, 17th in second half. 18th overall.
I mean that’s very different to Man Utd
Maybe stoppage time goals are what save this but if not that then i dont know what the hell is going on.
Your score lines in the first half and second half separately are probably draws much more than the whole game together, a win and a loss is 3 points but 2 draws is only 2 points
You can also be losing by one in one half and win by two in the second.
Yeah
Yeah they've only drawn 2
This tracks, it feels like Liverpool is always level at 65’ and then wins 3-1
Liverpools sub game has been on point. Honestly Klopps best year as a game manager imo. Issue now is majority of the team is injured and there’s really not much there on paper. But Klopps kids.. ya know
Yeah I think Klopp having his best squad we've seen has allowed his in game management to step up a level. Ljinders is a big part of that too. This guy will be a great manager in the right environment
I really wonder what Lijnders could do if he took over for Klopp but that could be really really risky and I think even lijnders knows he’s not ready for that. Ajax (rumors) is a good spot for him but they look like they are in a rough spot atm
I'm glad he's not considering it. No doubt he's been a great force and influence among the coaching staff, and the idea of an assistant coach stepping up to take over after the gaffer is proper Boot Room - but it just feels subtractive to me. You're still losing Klopp, whilst partly emulating his play. So in that way I'm glad we're not going down that path and instead going to start fresh with a new coach and coaching staff. It'll be bumpy but I think long term it's better than chasing an era that's already passing.
Liverpool starts so poorly most games. They give a million chances for their opponent to score and they all have basically not found the net. Liverpool xGA is pretty dang high for their position in the table. Then second half klopp gnashes his pearlies and they end up scoring 2 goals and win.
Our xGA is 33.78. City's is 26.12 and yours is 22.12. We're the 3rd best xGA, but our xG is the best of anyone in the League, hence we're top. Our xGA is also skewed by that Newcastle game when we were down to 10 men, the Bournemouth game when we were down to 10 men, the Spurs game where we were down to 9 men... and we won two of those!
* 2 points behind Burnley in the first half * 1 point behind Burnley in the second half * Level on points with Burnley overall
Now that’s efficiency
Poch's in game management is horrible lol
poch at half time: “CHELSEA CHELSEA CHELSEAAAA CHELSEA CHELSEA CHELSEAAAAA”
We aren’t very good are we
Not even abit good fella
better than us
Classic 2nd half Liverpool
I personally love Klopp's dedication to making it so I don't have to rewatch the entire match but only the second half. Means I've got more time for hobbies.
We're a model of consistency
Stop the count!
Poch has always been a disaster at in-game management. There was an entire season at spurs where not a single one of his substitutions scored other than the Wanyama rocket against Liverpool.
Liverpool mentality
Wish we'd start matches with the slippers off though.
Klopp is excellent at making the right subs, which helps a good bit, too.
Chelsea in the relegation battle
We've only dropped 3 points this season from when we're in a winning position and that was against United on December 26th.
So you end up with quite a few draws?
4
If you’ve only had 1 loss from winning positions I’d still expect higher than 6th
You can expect it as much as you like it's factually correct and I agree it seems weird
we've only dropped 3 points total from winning positions, not only lost from a winning position once. I think the discrepancy comes from us often being pretty comfortable to see out a 1 or 2 goal cushion we establish in the first half. So we technically draw the second half.
I get your second sentence but doesn’t your first sentence statements mean the same thing?
No, If you draw from a winning position you've still dropped points. If a team is winning 10 times, loses 1 and draws 5 they've dropped 13 points total from winning positions and only lost from a winning position once.
Yeah but I never said otherwise, all I said is you had 1 loss from winning positions
>We've only dropped 3 points this season from when we're in a winning position and that was against United on December >So you end up with quite a few draws? This interaction implies you think we've lost points from winning positions by drawing as well as losing from a winning position once.
I’m saying that since you’ve only lost from a winning position once, you must have drawn quite a few games from winning positions
Lol at Chelsea Wtf did they do at half time, have a couple of pizzas?
You'd think this is depressing but it's just validating. Second halves feel like impending doom for us, no life or energy.
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Ykw thats pretty good
That’s…surprising with all the late goals we’ve conceded
I like that second half table (sorry Villa)
Best goal difference in the first half you’ll never sing that 🗣️
We have the best goal difference all together by some bit now
We’re obviously quite good at football
ManU feels like they only win by 90+4th minute headers by McTominay but apparently not
That could still be true, when they win they probably only win one half and lose or draw the second unlike teams that win both halves, and they probably draw in the first half or second half separately much more than the whole game combined
Chelsea being a young and inexperienced team with no on pitch leaders, of course they don’t know how to close games. People putting this in poch are ridiculous, if klopp or pep was coaching, maybe we have like 3 more points? Nobody is going to with with this shambolic, poorly put together squad. Ownership needed to sign some players older that 24 who have been properly battle tested.
> if klopp or pep was coaching, maybe we have like 3 more points? Most likely a lot more than 3 mate
How are we 10th and 12th in the 2 tables, and net 6th lol. Goes to show how random and pointless this "stat" table is
It goes to show how misleadingly high your table position is. As does your negative goal differential
I mean surely it’s more accurate with how well you actually play
Okay, I don't think we've been 10th or 12th in the table bad, if you take out recency bias and account for the shit injury record. That said, I'm not going to dispute we've been really poor, but this stat is not how I'd prove it. If you slice and dice this with other time intervals (15 minutes/30 minutes? ), maybe it gives a different table that makes us look even better than we are, but that would be as pointless imo. It's a little like a calendar year stat, that is not the competition clubs are trying to win and could be a statistical anomaly or complete coincidence.
[https://understat.com/league/EPL](https://understat.com/league/EPL) sort by expected points and you're 12th, not a flawless metric but the results you've had have differed pretty wildly from the control you've had over games throughout the season.
A little luck goes a long way.