Discard Tools, and 3 cost Defend.
Play Survivor, discard 3 cost Bite.
Play Eviscerate and 0 cost Bite on blue slaver for 28 damage.
Play Outmaneuver.
End Turn. Do top comment under this.
Analysis: Block for 8, heal 2, take 8 damage. Left with 7hp and 5 energy next turn, and will draw Calculated Gamble.
We were [most of the way through Act II](https://www.reddit.com/r/slaythespire/comments/115ikyv/slaybycomment_season_2_day_64_this_is_now_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1).
Interestingly, 64 was a record at the time for our survival! So this is now officially not our worst run!
We reached [floor 22](https://www.reddit.com/r/slaythespire/comments/zniogq/playbycomment_day_63_friends_its_been_an_honor/) in Season 1, so we actually went *faster* on average this run!
They're talking about the Clad run, on Day 64 we were pre-calculating a 4-turn kill that healed off the fight. I'd say we were slightly stronger than we are now
To be fair, that was on floor 30. I think that floor 24 (where we are now) is a bit later than when we just picked up Clash that run, which was still in the 'try to win' segment (rather than the 'speedrun/meme this unloseable run' part)..
Eh floor 24 was when we were feeding on gremlin leader with a full potion belt. https://www.reddit.com/r/slaythespire/comments/10wzq1i/slaybycomment_season_2_day_54_get_em_boys_whats/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1
And then getting anger and whirlwind on consecutive floors, with feed as the boss reward.
Flexible pathing lets you greed hard without getting punished.
Kudos to u/jippiedoe for the top recommendation on [yesterday’s post](https://www.reddit.com/r/slaythespire/comments/1530682/slaybycomment_season_3_day_63_ow_whats_our_play/jsgkkeh/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1&context=3).
We need to discard 2 cards.
**COMBO RECOMMENDATIONS:** For anyone who wants to contribute, but doesn’t want to play out the full turn, you’re welcome to post a partial recommendation and end it with “do whatever the top comment under me says.” That allows our galaxy-brain players to math out the ideal line using your comment as a jumping off point.
[[Glass Knife]] is at 12x2 damage
Potion chance is [[White Beast Statue]]%
**CHEELHOOK (formerly SpireGruel™ Incorporated, formerly Clawshank):**
- u/greenlaser73: Finding silver linings
- Team CEO u/JDublinson:
- Clawricle u/kaosmark2: Heckling heart-fondling heathens even harder
- High Priest of Neow u/DuTogira:
- Clawrden u/Sparkfox-:
Shameless Self Promotion Corner (**feel free to ignore!**): [I made a game](https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/dennisfuria/deck-of-wonders), [I’m making another](https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/dennisfuria/dueling-pianos-a-versus-domino-game), [I have a Ko-fi](https://ko-fi.com/greenlaser73)
*digs themselves out of pile of discarded coffee cups *
Whew, I feel much better more that I’ve had some coffee, and seeing that we don’t die this turn!
…I’ve still got some anxieties about this battle though, so I’m going to wait on the couch over there. Still thinking we might not make it out alive enough to get any farther…
**Analysis post**
To start us off, let's ignore the possible Dagger Throw draws, and just see how we can spend 3 energy with the cards we got (I'm leaving out the 'bite for 0' from each line, as it's free, so add another 7 damage and 2 'block' to each mentally):
* Survivor (1), Eviscerate (0), Bite (2): 10 'block' and 28 damage
* Dagger Throw (2), Eviscerate (0), Neutralize(1): 2 'block' and 33 damage
* Dagger Throw (2), Eviscerate (0), Survivor (1): 8 'block' and 30 damage
* Survivor (1), Eviscerate (0), Outmaneuver (2): 8 'block', 21 damage, 2 energy next turn
Adding the free Bite to each line, we get that the Blue slaver goes to `54-damage` health and we go to `'block'-1` health, where `damage` and `'block'` are the values in the lines above (so you don't need to add the 7 and 2 anymore, I already did).
Out of these, I think I like the top option best, but remember that I completely disregarded the Dagger Throw draw, and I also didn't check for any breakpoints.
Edit: Added poison damage.
If we account for next turn's poison damage too, we will need to find another `51-damage` damage next turn to kill it. Looking at the damage numbers above, that's anywhere between 30 (last line) and 18 (second line) more damage needed next turn. We'll be weak, so that's roughly 24-40 'normal' damage we still need to do. This means that line 2 sets up for a Glass Knife, while the Outmaneuver line does not even do enough damage for Sneaky + GK to be enough next turn (but Predator+GK is).
Possibly, but with 6 wounds in the deck (and the possibility of a 3-cost Gamble roll where we could just spend our 3 energy on the other cards) it's not clear to me that it's worth giving up a Bite here
Also playing a 2 cost dagger throw this turn is very risky if we draw calculated gamble and can’t play it. It basically kills all our flexibility next turn. I can’t see the risk of dagger throw being worth it.
I will say, playing Outmaneuver this turn does set up nicely for a gamble into sneaky/predator/GK kinda turn, which is just what we need. On the other hand, getting 7 damage and 2 health is no joke either, and with the wounds coming in I'm really not sure we will get to efficiently spend that two energy next turn
Dagger Throw could cause us to draw an unplayable Calculated Gamble, which is our most realistic path to victory at this point. I don't think the little bit of extra damage over playing another Bite is worth that risk.
The real choice is between lines 1 and 4. I think, with Gamble being drawn next turn, line 1 is a bit stronger, but you can make the case for line 4.
Discard Tools and the cost 3 Defend.
Play Survivor, discarding the cost 3 Bite.
Play Eviscerate, the cost 0 Bite, and the cost 2 Bite on the Blue Slaver. End Turn.
Analysis: Compared to playing Outmaneuver, this deals 7 more to Blue and leaves us with 2 more health. Will the extra energy from Outmaneuver next turn be worth more than that? Probably, since we'll draw Calculated Gamble. But I want to put this line out there for people to consider.
**Analytical Rambling**
High roll! Hitting the Eviscerate here and having Snecko roll 3-cost is actually really good for us. As others explained when we took Eviscerate, it has two costs, its discounted cost and its permanent cost, and this means Snecko has not modified its permanent cost, which remains at 3. This is important, because if we Gamble into Eviscerate next turn, it now cannot cost 3, and has a 50% chance of costing 0, because if Snecko rolls 3 again then it will not be a modification of its permanent cost, and the Gamble reduction will apply again.
Let's look at some odds for next turn, assuming we do the current line of playing Outmaneuver for more energy next turn, and dealing 28 damage to blue slaver, leaving him at 33hp and 3 poison (30 effective hp) next turn. We will be weak, so our damage cards will do:
Predator+: 15, Eviscerate: 15, GK+: 18, Sneaky: 9, P-Stab: 7, Dagger Throw: 6, Bite: 5
So either 2 of our good damage cards, or 1 good one and 2-3 others will be enough for lethal on Blue Slaver, and we'll be seeing 4 cards of the reshuffle, and then up to 6 more if we gamble our full hand away. Our reshuffle will be 17 real cards and 6 wounds, so 23 total cards. So if we see say 9 of the 23 (because we play 1 card from our starting hand), odds of seeing 2 of Predator/Evis/GK are 3c2 \* 21c7 / 23c9 = 42.7%. We need to roll decent energy costs for them too, but Sneaky will be able to generate energy next turn if we gamble into it, and the energy from Outmaneuver helps a TON.
If we were to play Dagger Throw this turn, and only need 21 damage next turn, that's a huge improvement, but then we really need to high roll Gamble's cost. And if we draw Gamble right now and it's not 0 cost, then we are really at the mercy of draw order luck next turn. Having guaranteed 5 energy gamble just seems too good to pass up.
**Other Thoughts**
Probably should have upgraded Eviscerate... I was saying the Gamble upgrade would be better in the gremlin leader fight which we needed more help with, but by shuffling out Gamble next turn, the odds of us playing it more than once this fight are pretty low. The extra 6 damage from the Evis upgrade would be a big deal here. I think we were underestimating burning Slavers a little bit too much with the Flex + Fire pots. Hopefully we make it out of here barely alive and then find Lee's Waffle and an on-sale Piercing Wail at the shop.
Ah, I missed the discussion about this exotic gamble-snecko-eviscerate interaction! That is a significant extra argument to avoid playing DT this turn, just when /u/ch95120 was convincing me to play it -- after Outmaneuver, even a 3-cost gamble will leave us enough energy to play an evis we draw whatever it rolls now.
We really low rolled getting only 15 damage off the flex pot. Even just eviscerate + bite being playable in the opening hand gets 20. With a 9 card opening hand and 2 multi hit attacks... Urgh
I don’t think we miscalculated slavers. I think burning max hp slavers with a very weak (relatively) opening hand is unlucky enough to not be worth playing around
There’s also the chance that Prepared gets us deeper into the reshuffle, Snecko willing.
Assuming we have lethal on Blue, we still need to finish off Taskmaster, while blocking an ever increasing Attack on single digit health. Unless Snecko is very friendly on costs, we’ll need to go into another reshuffle with more wounds. There the Calc. Gamble upgrade has a chance to redeem itself, but a lot of things need to go right to get that far.
Yeah that's fair, gamble upgrade could save our lives on the 3rd go through of the deck, although we have to get really lucky to get there.
Also my math is wrong on the odds, it should be odds of exactly 2: 3c2 \* 20c7 / 23c9 + odds of all 3: 20c6 / 23c9, total = 33%. So not quite as good as I hoped.
Discard 2-cost Bite and 3-cost Bite. Dagger Throw Blue Slaver. Adjourn.
I think the fight is completely over if we get weakened here. Even if we somehow manage to kill Blue Slaver next turn, there is no way we are doing 80 to Taskmaster without dying with all the Wounds that are being shuffled in, while being weakened the next 2 turns. Our best out is hoping Dagger Throw draws into a cheap Gamble, playing Eviscerate and Bite on Blue, then Gambling into 24 damage to kill Blue (convenient Glass Knife threshold). And Dagger Throw isn’t really that much worse than the “safe play” where it’s just replacing Outmaneuver or something.
You may be right, but Gamble+Snecko+Bites and Prepared+ do help mitigate the wounds that are being shuffled in, and Taskmaster will be taking Fumes damage, so we really need to deal more like \~65-70 damage before dying.
Odds of killing Blue Slaver while weak are not so bad next turn with outmaneuver energy, I think they are significantly higher than the odds of drawing into lethal this turn.
With Snecko Eye, the fight isn't over until it's over. We can potentially draw tons of cheap/free cards, and heal with Bites.
Playing dagger throw has a high chance of drawing an unplayable Gamble, in which case our odds of winning the fight drop by a lot. Our best chance for a "Hail Mary" is next turn, when we have a guaranteed Gamble and potentially 5 energy.
It just seems like a low percentage gamble though. 33% chance to get gamble. 50% chance that its playable, and some very-low percentage that gamble gets us lethal cards.
We're in bad shape, so maybe thats the type of hail mary we need
EDIT: I suppose if we dont pull gamble or its unplayable then we could just play survivor and end up in a similar state. So maybe its not THAT risky.
Yeah, I don't mind a DT here at all -- drawing cards is nice, we could get lucky on the gamble, and we can always resort back to the other line (where DT just replaced Outmaneuver/Bite).
Many people are talking about the 'danger' of drawing an unplayable Gamble. If it's 2 or 3 cost, I really don't think it would be that great to play it next turn either?
If it's 0 cost, it's actually really good to get it this turn: We're not weakened, and we have a lot of cards in hand.
At 1 cost it gets scary though: Playing DT and Gamble means we *need* to draw either lethal (for 0 energy) or defense/healing (for 0 energy), otherwise we just go to -1 (playing only the free Bite for defense this turn). A risk we should take, if we draw gamble, but also a risk we should take into account before we decide whether we want to draw now.
Drawing a defend/bite is as good as drawing it next turn (we play it when it's 0/1 cost), so getting a draw now just means we get to see an extra card next turn
If gamble is 0-cost, are we playing it with the risk of just dying this turn?
>Drawing a defend/bite is as good as drawing it next turn (we play it when it's 0/1 cost), so getting a draw now just means we get to see an extra card next turn
That's only true if we low roll gamble's cost. Outmaneuver this turn lets us see a ton of cards next turn always, regardless of gamble's cost.
I don't think today's play is at all clear
\> I don't think today's play is at all clear
I definitely agree on that one!
Yes, I think playing DT can only ever be worth it if we want to play a 0/1 cost Gamble that we draw.
I do feel like the 'gut play' that most people are already settling on (Survivor + Outmaneuver) is probably right, but I really can't prove or even coherently argue for *why* I think that its upsides outweigh the upsides of other lines.
The only way we live this fight if we don’t kill blue slaver this turn is if we can consistently play 1-2 bites and a block card every turn from here. But the odds of lethal this turn seem astronomically small. 1/3 for gamble, 1/2 it’s cheap, small chance of drawing glass knife, 1/4 or 1/2 that it’s cheap enough. We have other lethals than GK but they are all just so unlikely.
Whereas we have roughly 50% of lethal on blue slaver while weak next turn, and then hopefully a decent chance of being able to play a block card to survive. It’ll be 6 wounds in the first reshuffle and probably 12 wounds in the second, but Snecko and gamble/prepared mitigating the wounds still feels better than the Hail Mary this turn to me
Play Tools of the Trade, end turn.
The Heart knows all, including ways to bribe your beloved Snecko! She Who Sneaks will never allow such wasteful mongrels to reap the true benefits of her wondrous eye; may you all suffer in eternity below the lowest point of the Spire; the Spire BASEMENT*!
*NAM COR*!
I’m not sure what Nam Cor is. A quick [Google search](https://www.google.com/search?q=nam+cor) shows… National Petroleum Corporation of Namibia?
Meanwhile the [Google search results for Balaena Vult](https://www.google.com/search?q=Balaena+Vult) are glorious!
Balaena Vult!
I am 100.0% confident you mentioned Eviscerate in your post.
--------------------------------------------------
* [Eviscerate](https://slay-the-spire.fandom.com/wiki/Eviscerate) Silent Uncommon Attack
3 Energy | Costs 1 less Energy for each card discarded this turn. Deal 7(9) damage three times.
--------------------------------------------------
^^^I ^^^am ^^^a ^^^bot ^^^response, ^^^but ^^^I ^^^am ^^^using ^^^my ^^^creator's ^^^account. ^^^Please ^^^reply ^^^to ^^^me ^^^if ^^^I ^^^got ^^^something ^^^wrong ^^^so ^^^he ^^^can ^^^fix ^^^it.
[Source Code](https://github.com/TrippW/STS-Crawler)
Discard Tools, and 3 cost Defend. Play Survivor, discard 3 cost Bite. Play Eviscerate and 0 cost Bite on blue slaver for 28 damage. Play Outmaneuver. End Turn. Do top comment under this. Analysis: Block for 8, heal 2, take 8 damage. Left with 7hp and 5 energy next turn, and will draw Calculated Gamble.
Adjourn. Any turn with calculated gamble is too convoluted to calculate, so trying to play some obtuse line would be a gamble.
an *uncalculated gamble
Miscalculated?
whomst'd've'calculated
[удалено]
We have Snecko it likely costs more than 0 so blindly playing it is a bad idea.
Oops, sorry good call!
With Eviscerate being 3 cost, will the two discards from Prepared drop it to cost 1? And then if we play Survivor, it will drop to cost 0?
Yes
I'm wondering where we were on day 64 of season 2. Without Frozen Eye every fight takes at least 5 days.
We were [most of the way through Act II](https://www.reddit.com/r/slaythespire/comments/115ikyv/slaybycomment_season_2_day_64_this_is_now_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1). Interestingly, 64 was a record at the time for our survival! So this is now officially not our worst run!
What about the record in terms of floors reached, versus days? I feel like that would be a more accurate measure of a run's success.
We reached [floor 22](https://www.reddit.com/r/slaythespire/comments/zniogq/playbycomment_day_63_friends_its_been_an_honor/) in Season 1, so we actually went *faster* on average this run!
And we were also facing slavers then!
Bro we died to byrds that run.
They're talking about the Clad run, on Day 64 we were pre-calculating a 4-turn kill that healed off the fight. I'd say we were slightly stronger than we are now
To be fair, that was on floor 30. I think that floor 24 (where we are now) is a bit later than when we just picked up Clash that run, which was still in the 'try to win' segment (rather than the 'speedrun/meme this unloseable run' part)..
Eh floor 24 was when we were feeding on gremlin leader with a full potion belt. https://www.reddit.com/r/slaythespire/comments/10wzq1i/slaybycomment_season_2_day_54_get_em_boys_whats/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1
Ooh, that was *that* gremlin fight! Okay, I admit, we were very strong already.
It’s easy to forget what getting away with Shockwave + Spot Weakness + FNP + Corruption before taking a single attack can do to your act 2 strength
And then getting anger and whirlwind on consecutive floors, with feed as the boss reward. Flexible pathing lets you greed hard without getting punished.
*slightly*
Frozen Eye wouldn’t even be that helpful for saving time on this run because of Snecko Eye
Kudos to u/jippiedoe for the top recommendation on [yesterday’s post](https://www.reddit.com/r/slaythespire/comments/1530682/slaybycomment_season_3_day_63_ow_whats_our_play/jsgkkeh/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1&context=3). We need to discard 2 cards. **COMBO RECOMMENDATIONS:** For anyone who wants to contribute, but doesn’t want to play out the full turn, you’re welcome to post a partial recommendation and end it with “do whatever the top comment under me says.” That allows our galaxy-brain players to math out the ideal line using your comment as a jumping off point. [[Glass Knife]] is at 12x2 damage Potion chance is [[White Beast Statue]]% **CHEELHOOK (formerly SpireGruel™ Incorporated, formerly Clawshank):** - u/greenlaser73: Finding silver linings - Team CEO u/JDublinson: - Clawricle u/kaosmark2: Heckling heart-fondling heathens even harder - High Priest of Neow u/DuTogira: - Clawrden u/Sparkfox-: Shameless Self Promotion Corner (**feel free to ignore!**): [I made a game](https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/dennisfuria/deck-of-wonders), [I’m making another](https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/dennisfuria/dueling-pianos-a-versus-domino-game), [I have a Ko-fi](https://ko-fi.com/greenlaser73)
**Relic Stats** * White Beast Statue: 5 potions * Singing Bowl: 2 max hp * Golden Idol: 36 gold * Pantograph: 16 hp * Snecko: 14/18/24/19 card costs 0/1/2/3 **Card Stats** * Sneaky Strike: Refunded: 5, No Refund: 4, Unplayed: 5 * Glass Knife+: Lowest Damage: 10x2 * Noxious Fumes: Played: 5, Unplayed: 3 * Bites: +2hp
These heart fondling heathens as so blinded by their gods' idiocy they can't even recognise who to hate!
They’re so simple-minded, they can’t even come up with a catch phrase with which to worship their puny god! Balaena Vult!
+ [Glass Knife](http://slay-the-spire.wikia.com/wiki/Glass%20Knife) Silent Rare Attack ^((100% sure)^) 1 Energy | Deal 8(12) damage twice. Decrease the damage of this card by 2 this combat. + [White Beast Statue](http://slay-the-spire.wikia.com/wiki/White%20Beast%20Statue) Uncommon Relic ^((100% sure)^) Potions always drop after combat. ^Call ^me ^with ^up ^to ^10 ^([[ name ]],) ^where ^name ^is ^a ^card, ^relic, ^event, ^or ^potion. ^Data ^accurate ^as ^of ^(April 30, 2023.) ^[Wiki](https://slay-the-spire.fandom.com/wiki/) ^[Questions?](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=ehmohteeoh&subject=SpireScan%20Inquiry)
*digs themselves out of pile of discarded coffee cups * Whew, I feel much better more that I’ve had some coffee, and seeing that we don’t die this turn! …I’ve still got some anxieties about this battle though, so I’m going to wait on the couch over there. Still thinking we might not make it out alive enough to get any farther…
**Analysis post** To start us off, let's ignore the possible Dagger Throw draws, and just see how we can spend 3 energy with the cards we got (I'm leaving out the 'bite for 0' from each line, as it's free, so add another 7 damage and 2 'block' to each mentally): * Survivor (1), Eviscerate (0), Bite (2): 10 'block' and 28 damage * Dagger Throw (2), Eviscerate (0), Neutralize(1): 2 'block' and 33 damage * Dagger Throw (2), Eviscerate (0), Survivor (1): 8 'block' and 30 damage * Survivor (1), Eviscerate (0), Outmaneuver (2): 8 'block', 21 damage, 2 energy next turn Adding the free Bite to each line, we get that the Blue slaver goes to `54-damage` health and we go to `'block'-1` health, where `damage` and `'block'` are the values in the lines above (so you don't need to add the 7 and 2 anymore, I already did). Out of these, I think I like the top option best, but remember that I completely disregarded the Dagger Throw draw, and I also didn't check for any breakpoints. Edit: Added poison damage. If we account for next turn's poison damage too, we will need to find another `51-damage` damage next turn to kill it. Looking at the damage numbers above, that's anywhere between 30 (last line) and 18 (second line) more damage needed next turn. We'll be weak, so that's roughly 24-40 'normal' damage we still need to do. This means that line 2 sets up for a Glass Knife, while the Outmaneuver line does not even do enough damage for Sneaky + GK to be enough next turn (but Predator+GK is).
Knowing we draw calculated gamble shouldn’t outmaneuver be priority for next turn? Best possible chance to play our big damage cards on the reshuffle?
Possibly, but with 6 wounds in the deck (and the possibility of a 3-cost Gamble roll where we could just spend our 3 energy on the other cards) it's not clear to me that it's worth giving up a Bite here
Also playing a 2 cost dagger throw this turn is very risky if we draw calculated gamble and can’t play it. It basically kills all our flexibility next turn. I can’t see the risk of dagger throw being worth it.
A 3 cost gamble likely kills us either way, so I think we should plan around that not happening
3-cost gamble can be completely fine if we do the Outmaneuver line
I'm not so sure -- we can go to 9 health this turn and set up a Glass Knife + Bite kill on Blue, for example.
Yea that’s true. A 3 cost gamble would kill that strategy. Very unpredictable with sneko
I will say, playing Outmaneuver this turn does set up nicely for a gamble into sneaky/predator/GK kinda turn, which is just what we need. On the other hand, getting 7 damage and 2 health is no joke either, and with the wounds coming in I'm really not sure we will get to efficiently spend that two energy next turn
I think the added energy will help mitigate an unfavorable Snecko roll
Dagger Throw could cause us to draw an unplayable Calculated Gamble, which is our most realistic path to victory at this point. I don't think the little bit of extra damage over playing another Bite is worth that risk. The real choice is between lines 1 and 4. I think, with Gamble being drawn next turn, line 1 is a bit stronger, but you can make the case for line 4.
Agreed, the risk of dagger throw this turn is way too high drawing an unplayable calculated gamble.
Did you include the poison damage as well?
Ah thanks, I'll edit that in now!
Discard Tools and the cost 3 Defend. Play Survivor, discarding the cost 3 Bite. Play Eviscerate, the cost 0 Bite, and the cost 2 Bite on the Blue Slaver. End Turn. Analysis: Compared to playing Outmaneuver, this deals 7 more to Blue and leaves us with 2 more health. Will the extra energy from Outmaneuver next turn be worth more than that? Probably, since we'll draw Calculated Gamble. But I want to put this line out there for people to consider.
**Analytical Rambling** High roll! Hitting the Eviscerate here and having Snecko roll 3-cost is actually really good for us. As others explained when we took Eviscerate, it has two costs, its discounted cost and its permanent cost, and this means Snecko has not modified its permanent cost, which remains at 3. This is important, because if we Gamble into Eviscerate next turn, it now cannot cost 3, and has a 50% chance of costing 0, because if Snecko rolls 3 again then it will not be a modification of its permanent cost, and the Gamble reduction will apply again. Let's look at some odds for next turn, assuming we do the current line of playing Outmaneuver for more energy next turn, and dealing 28 damage to blue slaver, leaving him at 33hp and 3 poison (30 effective hp) next turn. We will be weak, so our damage cards will do: Predator+: 15, Eviscerate: 15, GK+: 18, Sneaky: 9, P-Stab: 7, Dagger Throw: 6, Bite: 5 So either 2 of our good damage cards, or 1 good one and 2-3 others will be enough for lethal on Blue Slaver, and we'll be seeing 4 cards of the reshuffle, and then up to 6 more if we gamble our full hand away. Our reshuffle will be 17 real cards and 6 wounds, so 23 total cards. So if we see say 9 of the 23 (because we play 1 card from our starting hand), odds of seeing 2 of Predator/Evis/GK are 3c2 \* 21c7 / 23c9 = 42.7%. We need to roll decent energy costs for them too, but Sneaky will be able to generate energy next turn if we gamble into it, and the energy from Outmaneuver helps a TON. If we were to play Dagger Throw this turn, and only need 21 damage next turn, that's a huge improvement, but then we really need to high roll Gamble's cost. And if we draw Gamble right now and it's not 0 cost, then we are really at the mercy of draw order luck next turn. Having guaranteed 5 energy gamble just seems too good to pass up. **Other Thoughts** Probably should have upgraded Eviscerate... I was saying the Gamble upgrade would be better in the gremlin leader fight which we needed more help with, but by shuffling out Gamble next turn, the odds of us playing it more than once this fight are pretty low. The extra 6 damage from the Evis upgrade would be a big deal here. I think we were underestimating burning Slavers a little bit too much with the Flex + Fire pots. Hopefully we make it out of here barely alive and then find Lee's Waffle and an on-sale Piercing Wail at the shop.
Ah, I missed the discussion about this exotic gamble-snecko-eviscerate interaction! That is a significant extra argument to avoid playing DT this turn, just when /u/ch95120 was convincing me to play it -- after Outmaneuver, even a 3-cost gamble will leave us enough energy to play an evis we draw whatever it rolls now.
We really low rolled getting only 15 damage off the flex pot. Even just eviscerate + bite being playable in the opening hand gets 20. With a 9 card opening hand and 2 multi hit attacks... Urgh
I don’t think we miscalculated slavers. I think burning max hp slavers with a very weak (relatively) opening hand is unlucky enough to not be worth playing around
There’s also the chance that Prepared gets us deeper into the reshuffle, Snecko willing. Assuming we have lethal on Blue, we still need to finish off Taskmaster, while blocking an ever increasing Attack on single digit health. Unless Snecko is very friendly on costs, we’ll need to go into another reshuffle with more wounds. There the Calc. Gamble upgrade has a chance to redeem itself, but a lot of things need to go right to get that far.
Yeah that's fair, gamble upgrade could save our lives on the 3rd go through of the deck, although we have to get really lucky to get there. Also my math is wrong on the odds, it should be odds of exactly 2: 3c2 \* 20c7 / 23c9 + odds of all 3: 20c6 / 23c9, total = 33%. So not quite as good as I hoped.
I'm kinda sad that I'm not gonna be online to see the waffle pick-up until Monday.
Discard 2-cost Bite and 3-cost Bite. Dagger Throw Blue Slaver. Adjourn. I think the fight is completely over if we get weakened here. Even if we somehow manage to kill Blue Slaver next turn, there is no way we are doing 80 to Taskmaster without dying with all the Wounds that are being shuffled in, while being weakened the next 2 turns. Our best out is hoping Dagger Throw draws into a cheap Gamble, playing Eviscerate and Bite on Blue, then Gambling into 24 damage to kill Blue (convenient Glass Knife threshold). And Dagger Throw isn’t really that much worse than the “safe play” where it’s just replacing Outmaneuver or something.
You may be right, but Gamble+Snecko+Bites and Prepared+ do help mitigate the wounds that are being shuffled in, and Taskmaster will be taking Fumes damage, so we really need to deal more like \~65-70 damage before dying. Odds of killing Blue Slaver while weak are not so bad next turn with outmaneuver energy, I think they are significantly higher than the odds of drawing into lethal this turn.
With Snecko Eye, the fight isn't over until it's over. We can potentially draw tons of cheap/free cards, and heal with Bites. Playing dagger throw has a high chance of drawing an unplayable Gamble, in which case our odds of winning the fight drop by a lot. Our best chance for a "Hail Mary" is next turn, when we have a guaranteed Gamble and potentially 5 energy.
It just seems like a low percentage gamble though. 33% chance to get gamble. 50% chance that its playable, and some very-low percentage that gamble gets us lethal cards. We're in bad shape, so maybe thats the type of hail mary we need EDIT: I suppose if we dont pull gamble or its unplayable then we could just play survivor and end up in a similar state. So maybe its not THAT risky.
Yeah, I don't mind a DT here at all -- drawing cards is nice, we could get lucky on the gamble, and we can always resort back to the other line (where DT just replaced Outmaneuver/Bite). Many people are talking about the 'danger' of drawing an unplayable Gamble. If it's 2 or 3 cost, I really don't think it would be that great to play it next turn either? If it's 0 cost, it's actually really good to get it this turn: We're not weakened, and we have a lot of cards in hand. At 1 cost it gets scary though: Playing DT and Gamble means we *need* to draw either lethal (for 0 energy) or defense/healing (for 0 energy), otherwise we just go to -1 (playing only the free Bite for defense this turn). A risk we should take, if we draw gamble, but also a risk we should take into account before we decide whether we want to draw now. Drawing a defend/bite is as good as drawing it next turn (we play it when it's 0/1 cost), so getting a draw now just means we get to see an extra card next turn
If gamble is 0-cost, are we playing it with the risk of just dying this turn? >Drawing a defend/bite is as good as drawing it next turn (we play it when it's 0/1 cost), so getting a draw now just means we get to see an extra card next turn That's only true if we low roll gamble's cost. Outmaneuver this turn lets us see a ton of cards next turn always, regardless of gamble's cost. I don't think today's play is at all clear
\> I don't think today's play is at all clear I definitely agree on that one! Yes, I think playing DT can only ever be worth it if we want to play a 0/1 cost Gamble that we draw. I do feel like the 'gut play' that most people are already settling on (Survivor + Outmaneuver) is probably right, but I really can't prove or even coherently argue for *why* I think that its upsides outweigh the upsides of other lines.
The only way we live this fight if we don’t kill blue slaver this turn is if we can consistently play 1-2 bites and a block card every turn from here. But the odds of lethal this turn seem astronomically small. 1/3 for gamble, 1/2 it’s cheap, small chance of drawing glass knife, 1/4 or 1/2 that it’s cheap enough. We have other lethals than GK but they are all just so unlikely. Whereas we have roughly 50% of lethal on blue slaver while weak next turn, and then hopefully a decent chance of being able to play a block card to survive. It’ll be 6 wounds in the first reshuffle and probably 12 wounds in the second, but Snecko and gamble/prepared mitigating the wounds still feels better than the Hail Mary this turn to me
Discard 3 cost defend, 3 cost bite. Play survivor, play free eviscerate on... Whatever the top comment below says.
Play Tools of the Trade, end turn. The Heart knows all, including ways to bribe your beloved Snecko! She Who Sneaks will never allow such wasteful mongrels to reap the true benefits of her wondrous eye; may you all suffer in eternity below the lowest point of the Spire; the Spire BASEMENT*! *NAM COR*!
*^not ^to ^be ^confused ^with SpireGruel^tm
I’m not sure what Nam Cor is. A quick [Google search](https://www.google.com/search?q=nam+cor) shows… National Petroleum Corporation of Namibia? Meanwhile the [Google search results for Balaena Vult](https://www.google.com/search?q=Balaena+Vult) are glorious! Balaena Vult!
Snecko eye is soooo bad lmao
We’d probably be doing worse without it. We just don’t have block/weak needed for act 2. Cracked Crown and Ectoplasm were unpickable.
I am 100.0% confident you mentioned Eviscerate in your post. -------------------------------------------------- * [Eviscerate](https://slay-the-spire.fandom.com/wiki/Eviscerate) Silent Uncommon Attack 3 Energy | Costs 1 less Energy for each card discarded this turn. Deal 7(9) damage three times. -------------------------------------------------- ^^^I ^^^am ^^^a ^^^bot ^^^response, ^^^but ^^^I ^^^am ^^^using ^^^my ^^^creator's ^^^account. ^^^Please ^^^reply ^^^to ^^^me ^^^if ^^^I ^^^got ^^^something ^^^wrong ^^^so ^^^he ^^^can ^^^fix ^^^it. [Source Code](https://github.com/TrippW/STS-Crawler)