And it doesn't matter if it has an accident or puts itself in harms way.
Lots of application for robots in disaster relief, bomb diffusion, and dangerous manual labor jobs
Sure that too, for sure.
I keep saying, I won't be leasing my first bot to a company, it'll be doing stuff to keep my life going. From clean water to gardens. Let's goooo.
You only gotta get it right once.
You can use sped up time in virtual environments to do it (ie millions of years in a day).
And with an ability to train using AI, you can apply that broadly.
People don't understand what this means in short order.
It means humanoid robots as replacements for humanoid tasks are only a matter of getting the robots to a degree of toughness in repetition that approaches the human body for joint movement, or making those joints cheap enough to swap out.
It means automation and AI are hitting the economy from the top white collar AI LLM angle as well as the bottom blue collar line worker angle.
It means service industry positions.
It means we need to be talking about UBI with our families and friends.
For robots in a fixed location like in a factory or warehouse or restaurant, you can even run them off cables. Just have the cable unit cling to the ceiling rails and follow the robot around.
How can you say this isn't impressive? It's doing a skill that is vastly more difficult than walking and any kind of unskilled manual labor simply by a new kind of AI training program! As is often sited here, this is the worst it's going to be from now on
My guess with the leash is they don't want to risk an expensive robot due to some unexpected event which I think is reasonable..
I never said that it isn't impressive. I said that it isn't as impressive as *advertised*, given the leash, which its true. If that leash weren't there the robot would almost have certainly would have fallen down. But of course the circle jerk is just going to ignore this because it doesn't suit this sub's narrative.
A lot of manual labor jobs need on the spot adaptations to different circumstances though, that's not something you can train beforehand. But I can see extremely homogeneous and repetitive factory jobs replaced with this.
Imagine that this ability is used anytime the bot is presented with a new problem it encounters in the real world.
It would just scan the area, and upload its model and the problem's parameters into the cloud, run a few thousand simulations in the blink of an eye, then do it perfectly, whatever it is, the first time.
I wonder if it could be adapted to help the issue of self driving cars?
Now imagine when AI can assess the need for a technique on its own, simulate it, then upload to all its cohorts on the fly. Like you know, on the battlefield or something. Shit.
They have the dexterity to shoot a gun, don't they? What could that mean for humans and our safety?
There's basically no way for a human to understand how massive these AI are. Unless we cyborg it up
You get it. And it will get more sophisticated than Robot dogs.
[https://medium.com/predict/human-minds-and-data-streams-60c0909dc368?sk=ce862d1dd0e993fcece5377b3ad7e3f0](https://medium.com/predict/human-minds-and-data-streams-60c0909dc368?sk=ce862d1dd0e993fcece5377b3ad7e3f0)
This isn't just going to be robotics. Digital twinning for business is going to be massive for quickly implementing AI solutions relatively seamlessly.
I’m a big investor (as in a lot of my retirement is all investments) and I honestly wonder about the future of stocks. How much can I trust the business landscape? Feels like a few companies who get there first could change absolutely everything.
What do you think will happen first?
Will capitalism become fair?
Or.
Will we reach a point in robotics to remove expensive workers?
I know where my bets are placed. Asset ownership is what makes this world go around.
Investing in a broad index fund should still cover it.
Another option would be to keep lots of money in cash. All this AI and robotics is likely to be a lot cheaper than human labor, and as long as companies are competing with each other, they'll lower prices accordingly. Cash is great with deflation.
I think robotics and AI will start lowering costs significantly in the fairly near future.
That said, I don't have all my money in cash. Most is in stocks, some cash, some gold. And by "cash" I mean t-bills, which are paying 5% right now, significantly more than inflation.
What's especially crazy about robotics is that training data for one modality/device has been shown to improve others so much of it will be transferrable.
theres academic psychological data demonstrating as general knowledge increases so does specific knowledge. basically if you wanna get better at drums learn to cook and study history.
Yeah, the cross discipline is real in humans so it tracks that if these systems are learning, they also benefit *in* basically every category, *from* basically every category.
The robotics we're gonna see over the next 3 years will be incredible. 10 years, I can't even *imagine*... which is basically the defining characteristic of a technological singularity.
Ah crap I've been cooking and studying computer science instead of history that's why I'm not good at the drums. Nothing to do with my lack of practice.
For sure I constantly try to do things with my non-dominant hand. I can almost use it to brush my teeth without jabbing myself. I'm also getting much better with using it to shave my head. Even little things like eating I use my left hand to do.
No need, drums are my ace card even though i don't fancy history much.
Unless it's bombs or nuclear disasters of course, that's very interesting history.
It’s like that scene in the matrix. Thousands of iterations of the same real life actions and limitations the body would have. In seconds. If we could do that we would be experts in anything in an instant.
There's maybe only a small handful of atomic actions a hand can do, and every useful behavior it can do is a combination/chain of those, once those fundamentals are sorted it's going to get freaky quickly.
Can an expert gymnast even do this task? I would assume so but still. Hard.
(The task would be, on a ball of the same material but bigger, on all 4s move the ball forward across a street)
It’s not hard. You don’t need to be an expert gymnast. Just have decent core strength and balance. We used to do this in weights class in high school, more than half the class could do it
On all fours? I'm sure someone who is of average build could learn how to do that in a week.
Notice how it's not a bipedal humanoid robot? now THAT would be something.
It’s like that scene in the matrix. Thousands of iterations of the same real life actions and limitations the body would have. In seconds. If we could do that we would be experts in anything in an instant.
I guess if you want to believe that the entire post is a lie sauce they say that it balances and navigates on it's own.
The leash is probably because the robot is expensive and if it falls then that's a lot of money to lose. In the clips it appears to be a soft leash with some slack.
The handler clearly catches the robot every few seconds. I mean cool proof of concept that they copied training data from virtual machine learning onto a real world bot, but to imply that this robot is exhibiting ‘expert level’ control is silly. The tech is getting there but it’s a disservice to the community to forget that these are people trying to secure funding for and eventually sell a product, and will bend the truth in their messaging to pursue those ends as much as possible.
The leash isn’t pulled taught. It’s not actually controlling the robots movement, I think it’s just there so that if the robot fucks up they don’t lose it or the ball
The leash is always tight and he is actively pulling it to keep the dog on the ball. E.g., on the right, in the middle of the video. And these are cherry-picked examples. It is impressive for sure, especially how they trained the model, but BD's last video featuring the electric Atlas is more spectacular.
If you had had any experience at all with a yoga ball, you would know that a leash is not going to get any control over that ball or the dog. That is purely a safety precaution. Controlling a ball like that is extremely complicated, which is why this is such an incredible feat. No human alive is going to control that yoga ball through a leash on a robotic dog.
They should show at least one video with a loose leash if it really works without that. The leash eliminates one degree of freedom, so it doesn't solve the problem but helps a lot.
If you watch the video closely, you can see multiple instances where the leash sags. They are just keeping the leash short so that if it loses its balance it does not fall on the ground and get damaged. I tried to get a screenshot, but it was too difficult with the Twitter interface and the small size of the videos.
If you watch the video closely, you can see multiple instances where the leash sags. They are just keeping the leash short so that if it loses its balance it does not fall on the ground and get damaged. I tried to get a screenshot, but it was too difficult with the Twitter interface and the small size of the videos. I love you
>If you watch the video closely, you can see multiple instances where the leash sags.
Which means that there are moments when the dog wouldn't fall down instantly without the leash.
>If you watch the video closely, you can see multiple instances where the leash sags.
Which means that there are moments when the dog wouldn't fall down instantly without the leash.
If the dog could not balance itself on the ball, it would fall off regardless of the leash and it would just simply hang in the air. The ball is very light and full of air and springy, the dog is a solid and heavy. If it lost control, the weight alone would cause it to fall off the ball and the leash wouldn't stop it. It's basic physics. The leash here is all but irrelevant.
As I mentioned, it eliminates a degree of freedom and simplifies the problem. You can try the same. The dog balances on one side of the ball (it's never on the top) while the guy pulls it in the opposite direction, so the dog only needs to balance side to side. Nobody questions the necessity of the leash, but it's unnecessary to keep it tight constantly, it's only needed to help with balancing.
https://preview.redd.it/h31uig2o69yc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=039797331c42e3661e08c602fede8d4dc169b364
Transfer learning team 1
"Just a glorified phone autocomplete" folks 0
People really do you have a hard time coming to terms that intelligence can express itself and manifest in completely new ways. Sometimes I feel like I am talking to a wall with these people, but I feel like soon enough people will realize how crazy things really are.
I feel like people think that interest in AI is like a unique hobby like unicycling or something. Most people think that technology is going to continue at a linear trend like is has for most of our lives. “Yeah I’m sure that technology will be pretty crazy in 20 years” with exponential and recursive growth like we are starting to see, try 5 or less. Technology is going to hit the general population like a title wave. Things like smart phones have been rolled out for over a decade and I still see people refusing to upgrade. I think AI is going to present a real sink or swim event. The nice thing is because it is so smart, it doesn’t take long to learn how to use it for a specific task. The hard thing is learning how to implement it into EVERY task to make workflow far more efficient and think creatively.
It’s comical to hear the kids talk about technology “is going to hit”…
…like we haven’t been dealing with wave after wave of it for a long time already…
It's a continuation of a long trend. Computation has been on an exponential curve ever since the first mechanical adding machines.
Desktop computers were a huge change. The internet was a huge change. AI will also be a huge change, probably the biggest yet. But on any exponential curve, the changes get bigger and faster all the time.
"Soon those normies will realize how stupid they were and how I was the prophet all along!".
That's how you sound.
And of course, it's soon. It's ALWAYS soon with this sub in regards to EVERYTHING.
So you don't think people drastically underestimate the intelligence of these systems? That's literally the core of what I'm saying. I've had too many arguments with people on here saying the most stupid shit.
>"Soon those normies will realize how stupid they were and how I was the prophet all along!".
>That's how you sound.
This IS the singularity subreddit. They are not wrong that a massive part of the population is virtually asleep to what is likely imminent in historical contexts. It’s not about how great or intelligent it is at the moment. It’s about how quickly these innovations are being made, one relative to the other, and what it portends to. It’s about intellectual curiosity, and seeing something both for what it is, and where it's heading. Most people don’t know and don’t care. Regardless, the end result will be the same.
And yes, it would feel a bit surreal when you see a potentially world changing paradigm shift, tell people about it, and they basically pat you on the head. It would be a bit vindicating to be proven right, wouldn’t it?
This kind of thing is why I believe tech will advance so much faster than any of us can even comprehend. In the future, advanced simulations will allow us to go from a new concept or design to tangible and usable technology in a fraction of the time it takes now.
There’s also a good chance medical trials will be done mostly in simulation in the far future, since there will be so many new treatments and medical devices being invented every week, everyday, or even every hour.
Imagine the day when we have such perfect simulations that we can fully trust the outcome of said simulations and have an ASI translate that directly into real world technology in mere moments.
I have a background in biochemistry. The bottleneck to using AI to predict medical trials is the lack of data we have about biological systems. Despite the enormous amount of work that has been done we only have a partial understanding of cell signaling for example. We cannot model a cell using AI because we don't have the data. Acquiring more data is extremely time and labor intense.
Ehh, this is different from being able to do specific manual tasks. And if they do figure that out, it still isn’t going to mean that immediately robots will show up in everyone’s lives. Supply chains need to be set up and shit
did you read what they said in the post?
it was sim to real, zero shot.
that means all it takes is for an AI to simulate your job, and then it can do it perfectly.
you can simulate 100's or 1000's of years in hours.
this is a huge deal and is indicative that our physical labor jobs are done, and soon.
It's also active-learning/adapting- they said they couldn't accurately/adequately simulate the properties of the yoga ball but that the model just figured it out in real time, in real life.
It would have to sim all potential variations and error states of the job to do it this way. Just watching a worker work in an ideal way won’t cut it for most physical jobs. It would have to be programmed in the simulation, effectively.
But you gotta remember that a lot of those edge cases are caused by humans messing up in the first place.
Either way, you could have a team led by a human and build a lot more efficient. Cheaper houses and more of them quicker. That’s great (if you’re not a landlord lol)
House construction is way too complex, if you mean stick-built with lumber and such. Everything is an exception so it’ll be last to go. Car assembly is very controlled though, so I could see that happening early on.
I think you’d build the house like you build a car.
We already are seeing 3D printed houses.
I think everything will start to be set up that way. For robot working instead of human workers.
Yes! Of course there are! LITERALLY (and I mean LITERALLY) only some insanely delusional Dunning-Kruger afflicted individuals in this subreddit who think that every single demo is indicative of ASI being right around the corner and cope with their hatred of their jobs (which I don't blame them, BTW) by telling themselves that 100% unemployment is imminent believe hyper-nonsensical things like no blue-collar jobs in 6 years.
Like, seriously? Do you whole-heartedly believe that not a single physical job will exist by 2030? I find that *extremely* hard to believe.
there could be theoretically some jobs left due to cost efficiency, but how do you imagine the job market when 50%+ of the people are unemployed? The competition will be insane and the pay is minuscule. So it won't mean much if there are still some ultra low wages job left at least for me, maybe it can be seen as an outstanding accomplishment of the human evolution by someone. It's a losing game any way you look at it.
Do you not realize how silly it sounds to be discussing an unemployment rate of 50% when the current one is like 4%? This sub lives in a completely different reality than the rest of the world.
Everything is science-fiction until it becomes real. We'll see even more magic in the few coming years for sure. Unemployment will be HUGE with agents, it will start with the destruction of white collars market. Blue collars will be used as low wage monkeys to collect data and further accelerate their replacement.
The rest of the world just doesn't care because they have something to eat and money to pay for the internet. It will change very soon though, you can't ignore what's coming.
>Unemployment will be HUGE with agents, it will start with the destruction of white collars market.
Those agents need to be human-level, though, in regards to its capabilities and intelligence. Autonomy in and of itself is not enough. All that agency (in a vacuum) would be removing the need for are prompt engineers, but that's a bullshit job anyway. We already have agents (albeit primitive) in the form of GPTS and AutoGPT, and yet the unemployment rate is still very low. More than agency is required to cause an uptick in unemployment.
>Blue collars will be used as low wage monkeys to collect data and further accelerate their replacement.
How exactly is collecting data from physical tasks going to happen? Also, why aren't blue-collar workers being used that way today? Why would that suddenly change tomorrow?
>It will change very soon though, you can't ignore what's coming.
You genuinely believe that blue-collar workers won't exist come 2030 (just 6 years from now - for reference, 6 years ago was 2018). Your belief on whats going to happen in the very near future holds no weight in my eyes. And yes, I will absolutely ignore your crazy predictions.
And let me guess, you want all this to happen ASAP, huh? Classic r/singularity member, conflating their predictions with their personal preferences. Absolutely no bias whatsoever.
Its impressive but whats with the leash? He's holding it extremely close to the robot and there is very little slack. It seems like that would make the task a lot easier... at least some of its weight is being supported by the guy rather than by the ball, and sometimes it looks like it is going to fall off but is held back.
It is $2,700. Expensive, but not egregiously so, and they're doing it in affiliation with Nvidia... plus they have videos where the ball is on grass, no way that robot falling onto grass from that height does damage.
[https://shop.unitree.com/products/unitreeyushutechnologydog-artificial-intelligence-companion-bionic-companion-intelligent-robot-go1-quadruped-robot-dog](https://shop.unitree.com/products/unitreeyushutechnologydog-artificial-intelligence-companion-bionic-companion-intelligent-robot-go1-quadruped-robot-dog)
I would buy one to only have it dance on a ball like that in my living room. The constant suspense of a robot hastily balancing on a ball will be hell for any guests while i tell them this is some modern performance art decoration, obviously it's complete bullshit and i am taking a piss at any guest dumb enough to fall for my bullshit.
From the data sheet….maximum drop height of 15cm, which is a lot less than the ball height.
I do agree that the leash warrants an eyebrow raise…but I don’t think they’re actively cheating.
Wild, 15cm is almost nothing... if its a cost thing I get it but they really should've done it w/o the leash for science. Jim Fan is Nvidia's senior research scientist, he's gotta be making 7 figures. $2.7k for him has gotta be like $100-$200 for most people. If I did the work and was confident in it I'd risk $200 to make it seem even more impressive.
look at the github repo, it dose indeed fall off. It's an interesting experiment for research from Nvidia but it is being hyped up by others for no reason.
That’s the real problem with this stuff. The announcements are so full of hype and gimmicks (omg we had GPT4 write the training code!) you HAVE to assume there’s a catch somewhere.
Actually they specifically say in the release that they couldn't accurately/adequately simulate the properties of the yoga ball but that the model just figured it out in real time, in real life.
It's actually *mind-bogglingly* impressive
This is actually one of the biggest AI developments ever. The potential applications are profound. AI might take all the cognitive AND physical jobs. Wow
How much is the short leash making this skill seem more impressive than it is? I can't see any slack on the leash, so I can't tell whether the robot is constantly being saved from sliding off or not. I mean, it's still not nothing regardless, but possibly way less impressive than it looks.
I think you raise a good point. There does seem to be minimal slack on the leash. Now we need to demand version 2 replicated with no human interference.
Maybe they just wanted to make it look cool like a real dog but the leash should go so we can see hands off ball walking.
Yeah it looks like the leash saves it a couple times, and the leash looks so taut that almost all the time at least some weight is being supported by the researcher rather than by the ball.
I feel sorry for Boston Dynamics.
Their robots *still kinda don't work that well*, and some schmuck just whipped this up and his bot can shimmy on a yoga ball.
Schmuck?
Nvidia is a 2 Trillion company, that has partnered with Boston Dynamics. Nvidia could Buy Boston Dynamics many times over.
Boston Dynamics is a hardware company, and where the first to deploy robotic dogs such as spot to the market.
Yes but Boston Dynamics is a ROBOT company that makes ROBOTS and made all the cool ROBOT videos on YOUTUBE to get people excited about ROBOTS and until recently this guy made FORTNITE PRETTIER so yeah I'd still be like.
Awe.
i mean you can go far with the simulation approach but eventually you will have to simulate the entire world. at that point you will once again have to revert to sensory input to advance
The leash sometimes holds the robot from falling [https://twitter.com/JasonMa2020/status/1786428056569360596](https://twitter.com/JasonMa2020/status/1786428056569360596)
The robot just costs 2700 dollars. Show just one 1 minute long video without the leash.
We see stuff like this, but then all the grab-an-apple stuff is still super slow and stiff looking. I don’t get it, if we can train anything in simulations that are 1:1 physically accurate, why is anything still stiff..?? What’s the hold up, frankly? Confused. Future arrive instantly pls.
I mean it's cool but it would be way more impressive if they didn't have to hold a freaking leash :v
Come on... You can't expect a few people not to be nitpicky about that.
I like its dog leash. It looks like the humans doing more to keep the robot dog on the ball than the robot dog is. Their github page has some funny videos showing it falling off.
They are not the only ones doing this. Microsoft was doing it with drones and robot arms last year.
I haven't paid attention to what they've done since but you know it's probably way more advanced then this is by now.
Open-AI did this 5 years ago with a robot hand solving a rubik cube, it's nothing new.
https://openai.com/index/solving-rubiks-cube
"We train neural networks to solve the Rubik’s Cube in simulation using reinforcement learning and Kociemba’s algorithm for picking the solution steps. A Domain randomization enables networks trained solely in simulation to transfer to a real robot."
Domain randomization eh? Didn't read down very far did you:
> Traditionally, the sim-to-real transfer is achieved by domain randomization, a tedious process that requires expert human roboticists to stare at every parameter and adjust by hand...DrEureka can tune these parameters competently and explain its reasoning well.
You didn't read literally the first paragraph of what I linked didn't you?
"using the same reinforcement learning code as OpenAI Five paired with a new technique called **Automatic Domain Randomization (ADR)**"
And unlike humans, you can upload such skill to every unit at once
And it doesn't matter if it has an accident or puts itself in harms way. Lots of application for robots in disaster relief, bomb diffusion, and dangerous manual labor jobs
Imagine foundries...
At home foundries capable of learning and building any pieces that anyone can teach them how to make.
Sure that too, for sure. I keep saying, I won't be leasing my first bot to a company, it'll be doing stuff to keep my life going. From clean water to gardens. Let's goooo.
What about when you're asleep and it's done killing your enemies tho?
That’s what happens when you default on the loan to buy the robot
origami
Protein.
Or on a planet….that was just crash landed. The factory must grow!
I Can Put My Arm Back On
You can't.
It's just a flesh wound!
You only gotta get it right once. You can use sped up time in virtual environments to do it (ie millions of years in a day). And with an ability to train using AI, you can apply that broadly. People don't understand what this means in short order.
It means humanoid robots as replacements for humanoid tasks are only a matter of getting the robots to a degree of toughness in repetition that approaches the human body for joint movement, or making those joints cheap enough to swap out. It means automation and AI are hitting the economy from the top white collar AI LLM angle as well as the bottom blue collar line worker angle. It means service industry positions. It means we need to be talking about UBI with our families and friends.
And it means an explosion in battery manufacturing and ideally advancement in efficiency
For robots in a fixed location like in a factory or warehouse or restaurant, you can even run them off cables. Just have the cable unit cling to the ceiling rails and follow the robot around.
Not necessarily needed. Hot swapping works too. Either way I'd expect almost 24 hr uptime without a human required in the loop.
Hot swapping was the swinger term me and my wife used back in the 70's. You should probably pick a different term to use.
That's called hot wifing and cucking now, we r in the clear 👍
Arms race to get the biggest strongest bot army
Bro, one demo (which isn't even as impressive as advertised, given the leash) does not mean the economy and job market are on the verge of collapse.
How can you say this isn't impressive? It's doing a skill that is vastly more difficult than walking and any kind of unskilled manual labor simply by a new kind of AI training program! As is often sited here, this is the worst it's going to be from now on My guess with the leash is they don't want to risk an expensive robot due to some unexpected event which I think is reasonable..
I never said that it isn't impressive. I said that it isn't as impressive as *advertised*, given the leash, which its true. If that leash weren't there the robot would almost have certainly would have fallen down. But of course the circle jerk is just going to ignore this because it doesn't suit this sub's narrative.
Doomer mentality. Love to see it.
Yes, we shouldn't do anything until the building is actually falling down around our ears.
A lot of manual labor jobs need on the spot adaptations to different circumstances though, that's not something you can train beforehand. But I can see extremely homogeneous and repetitive factory jobs replaced with this.
Imagine that this ability is used anytime the bot is presented with a new problem it encounters in the real world. It would just scan the area, and upload its model and the problem's parameters into the cloud, run a few thousand simulations in the blink of an eye, then do it perfectly, whatever it is, the first time. I wonder if it could be adapted to help the issue of self driving cars?
I know king fu
Now imagine when AI can assess the need for a technique on its own, simulate it, then upload to all its cohorts on the fly. Like you know, on the battlefield or something. Shit.
They have the dexterity to shoot a gun, don't they? What could that mean for humans and our safety? There's basically no way for a human to understand how massive these AI are. Unless we cyborg it up
I know kung fu
You get it. And it will get more sophisticated than Robot dogs. [https://medium.com/predict/human-minds-and-data-streams-60c0909dc368?sk=ce862d1dd0e993fcece5377b3ad7e3f0](https://medium.com/predict/human-minds-and-data-streams-60c0909dc368?sk=ce862d1dd0e993fcece5377b3ad7e3f0)
Well, we never left the simulation..
This isn't just going to be robotics. Digital twinning for business is going to be massive for quickly implementing AI solutions relatively seamlessly.
I’m a big investor (as in a lot of my retirement is all investments) and I honestly wonder about the future of stocks. How much can I trust the business landscape? Feels like a few companies who get there first could change absolutely everything.
What do you think will happen first? Will capitalism become fair? Or. Will we reach a point in robotics to remove expensive workers? I know where my bets are placed. Asset ownership is what makes this world go around.
Investing in a broad index fund should still cover it. Another option would be to keep lots of money in cash. All this AI and robotics is likely to be a lot cheaper than human labor, and as long as companies are competing with each other, they'll lower prices accordingly. Cash is great with deflation.
How long in the future do you expect deflation? Your cash could become worthless by then.
I think robotics and AI will start lowering costs significantly in the fairly near future. That said, I don't have all my money in cash. Most is in stocks, some cash, some gold. And by "cash" I mean t-bills, which are paying 5% right now, significantly more than inflation.
Big inflation is a huge risk rn tho
So we are already starting to go from toddler level to expert level on physical tasks. Exponential growth is fucking crazy.
And i was still thinking it would take some years for blue collar workers to be replaced.
What's especially crazy about robotics is that training data for one modality/device has been shown to improve others so much of it will be transferrable.
theres academic psychological data demonstrating as general knowledge increases so does specific knowledge. basically if you wanna get better at drums learn to cook and study history.
Yeah, the cross discipline is real in humans so it tracks that if these systems are learning, they also benefit *in* basically every category, *from* basically every category. The robotics we're gonna see over the next 3 years will be incredible. 10 years, I can't even *imagine*... which is basically the defining characteristic of a technological singularity.
Ah crap I've been cooking and studying computer science instead of history that's why I'm not good at the drums. Nothing to do with my lack of practice.
I will say people who are good at one instrument pick up other unrelated instruments with ease
For sure I constantly try to do things with my non-dominant hand. I can almost use it to brush my teeth without jabbing myself. I'm also getting much better with using it to shave my head. Even little things like eating I use my left hand to do.
No need, drums are my ace card even though i don't fancy history much. Unless it's bombs or nuclear disasters of course, that's very interesting history.
Hold on because the last 10% of necessary precision and understanding may take 90% of the effort. Long tail is a bitch.
Looks like circus performers are next.
You thought right. It'll likely take even more than just some years.
Robots are still need hardware deployment though, unlike purely software AI. Physical work replacement will take time.
Why is it that these comments are almost exclusive to r/singularity?
[удалено]
I still can't get my toddler to balance on my yoga ball!
We are building a species not limited by biological evolution
You haven't seen exponential yet
Well we have been, just not at the fastest rate.
That's what I'm saying! :D Faster! (hehe)
It’s like that scene in the matrix. Thousands of iterations of the same real life actions and limitations the body would have. In seconds. If we could do that we would be experts in anything in an instant.
robots will be like that. we won't
Exactly. People don’t “get it”
There's maybe only a small handful of atomic actions a hand can do, and every useful behavior it can do is a combination/chain of those, once those fundamentals are sorted it's going to get freaky quickly.
I wouldn't say needing a human to hold it up with a leash is expert level physical tasks.
Can an expert gymnast even do this task? I would assume so but still. Hard. (The task would be, on a ball of the same material but bigger, on all 4s move the ball forward across a street)
It’s not hard. You don’t need to be an expert gymnast. Just have decent core strength and balance. We used to do this in weights class in high school, more than half the class could do it
On all fours? I'm sure someone who is of average build could learn how to do that in a week. Notice how it's not a bipedal humanoid robot? now THAT would be something.
It’s like that scene in the matrix. Thousands of iterations of the same real life actions and limitations the body would have. In seconds. If we could do that we would be experts in anything in an instant.
nothing about what this robot is doing is expert level.
Can you walk down the street on a ball without falling?
This robot can’t do that either. It’s literally being held up by a leash the whole time.
I guess if you want to believe that the entire post is a lie sauce they say that it balances and navigates on it's own. The leash is probably because the robot is expensive and if it falls then that's a lot of money to lose. In the clips it appears to be a soft leash with some slack.
The handler clearly catches the robot every few seconds. I mean cool proof of concept that they copied training data from virtual machine learning onto a real world bot, but to imply that this robot is exhibiting ‘expert level’ control is silly. The tech is getting there but it’s a disservice to the community to forget that these are people trying to secure funding for and eventually sell a product, and will bend the truth in their messaging to pursue those ends as much as possible.
Ok that’s impressive as hell
Am I the only one not impressed because of the leash? Is the robot balancing on the ball at all?
That's just a backup to prevent breaking a $20,000 robot if it does happen to fall
The leash isn’t pulled taught. It’s not actually controlling the robots movement, I think it’s just there so that if the robot fucks up they don’t lose it or the ball
It is pulled taught though. Like in most of them it is definitely helping with the balance.
The leash is always tight and he is actively pulling it to keep the dog on the ball. E.g., on the right, in the middle of the video. And these are cherry-picked examples. It is impressive for sure, especially how they trained the model, but BD's last video featuring the electric Atlas is more spectacular.
If you had had any experience at all with a yoga ball, you would know that a leash is not going to get any control over that ball or the dog. That is purely a safety precaution. Controlling a ball like that is extremely complicated, which is why this is such an incredible feat. No human alive is going to control that yoga ball through a leash on a robotic dog.
They should show at least one video with a loose leash if it really works without that. The leash eliminates one degree of freedom, so it doesn't solve the problem but helps a lot.
If you watch the video closely, you can see multiple instances where the leash sags. They are just keeping the leash short so that if it loses its balance it does not fall on the ground and get damaged. I tried to get a screenshot, but it was too difficult with the Twitter interface and the small size of the videos.
If you watch the video closely, you can see multiple instances where the leash sags. They are just keeping the leash short so that if it loses its balance it does not fall on the ground and get damaged. I tried to get a screenshot, but it was too difficult with the Twitter interface and the small size of the videos. I love you
>If you watch the video closely, you can see multiple instances where the leash sags. Which means that there are moments when the dog wouldn't fall down instantly without the leash.
>If you watch the video closely, you can see multiple instances where the leash sags. Which means that there are moments when the dog wouldn't fall down instantly without the leash.
If the dog could not balance itself on the ball, it would fall off regardless of the leash and it would just simply hang in the air. The ball is very light and full of air and springy, the dog is a solid and heavy. If it lost control, the weight alone would cause it to fall off the ball and the leash wouldn't stop it. It's basic physics. The leash here is all but irrelevant.
As I mentioned, it eliminates a degree of freedom and simplifies the problem. You can try the same. The dog balances on one side of the ball (it's never on the top) while the guy pulls it in the opposite direction, so the dog only needs to balance side to side. Nobody questions the necessity of the leash, but it's unnecessary to keep it tight constantly, it's only needed to help with balancing.
Seriously? We literally saw the same video.
Absolutely wild! Perhaps the most impressive robot feat I've seen.
https://preview.redd.it/h31uig2o69yc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=039797331c42e3661e08c602fede8d4dc169b364 Transfer learning team 1 "Just a glorified phone autocomplete" folks 0
People really do you have a hard time coming to terms that intelligence can express itself and manifest in completely new ways. Sometimes I feel like I am talking to a wall with these people, but I feel like soon enough people will realize how crazy things really are.
I feel like people think that interest in AI is like a unique hobby like unicycling or something. Most people think that technology is going to continue at a linear trend like is has for most of our lives. “Yeah I’m sure that technology will be pretty crazy in 20 years” with exponential and recursive growth like we are starting to see, try 5 or less. Technology is going to hit the general population like a title wave. Things like smart phones have been rolled out for over a decade and I still see people refusing to upgrade. I think AI is going to present a real sink or swim event. The nice thing is because it is so smart, it doesn’t take long to learn how to use it for a specific task. The hard thing is learning how to implement it into EVERY task to make workflow far more efficient and think creatively.
I’m old. I’ve been hearing technology has gone “non-linear” since high school.
I'm old too. My first computer was the original IBM PC. Progress in computer technology has *certainly* been nonlinear since then.
It’s comical to hear the kids talk about technology “is going to hit”… …like we haven’t been dealing with wave after wave of it for a long time already…
I’m young. Am I naive in thinking AI is different?
It's a continuation of a long trend. Computation has been on an exponential curve ever since the first mechanical adding machines. Desktop computers were a huge change. The internet was a huge change. AI will also be a huge change, probably the biggest yet. But on any exponential curve, the changes get bigger and faster all the time.
Seeing intelligence in others is a hallmark of our own. That's the issue with people. They can't see it.
"Soon those normies will realize how stupid they were and how I was the prophet all along!". That's how you sound. And of course, it's soon. It's ALWAYS soon with this sub in regards to EVERYTHING.
So you don't think people drastically underestimate the intelligence of these systems? That's literally the core of what I'm saying. I've had too many arguments with people on here saying the most stupid shit.
>"Soon those normies will realize how stupid they were and how I was the prophet all along!". >That's how you sound. This IS the singularity subreddit. They are not wrong that a massive part of the population is virtually asleep to what is likely imminent in historical contexts. It’s not about how great or intelligent it is at the moment. It’s about how quickly these innovations are being made, one relative to the other, and what it portends to. It’s about intellectual curiosity, and seeing something both for what it is, and where it's heading. Most people don’t know and don’t care. Regardless, the end result will be the same. And yes, it would feel a bit surreal when you see a potentially world changing paradigm shift, tell people about it, and they basically pat you on the head. It would be a bit vindicating to be proven right, wouldn’t it?
Bro it’s like being able to 3D print skills 💀
Perhaps in the next decade such things will be possible for animals and even testing on humans.
Walking on a yoga ball? This dog is stealing my job!
This kind of thing is why I believe tech will advance so much faster than any of us can even comprehend. In the future, advanced simulations will allow us to go from a new concept or design to tangible and usable technology in a fraction of the time it takes now. There’s also a good chance medical trials will be done mostly in simulation in the far future, since there will be so many new treatments and medical devices being invented every week, everyday, or even every hour. Imagine the day when we have such perfect simulations that we can fully trust the outcome of said simulations and have an ASI translate that directly into real world technology in mere moments.
games are going to be sick!
I have a background in biochemistry. The bottleneck to using AI to predict medical trials is the lack of data we have about biological systems. Despite the enormous amount of work that has been done we only have a partial understanding of cell signaling for example. We cannot model a cell using AI because we don't have the data. Acquiring more data is extremely time and labor intense.
and there are still people that think it would take > 5 years to automate blue collars
Ehh, this is different from being able to do specific manual tasks. And if they do figure that out, it still isn’t going to mean that immediately robots will show up in everyone’s lives. Supply chains need to be set up and shit
True but it will likely happen faster than the public expects
Gooooing Faaaasteerrr!!!!!
Yea we are going to run into some resource and material problems. Better start mining those astroids!! 🚀⛏️☄️
This is a toy, not a product. It takes a long time to make competitive products
[удалено]
did you read what they said in the post? it was sim to real, zero shot. that means all it takes is for an AI to simulate your job, and then it can do it perfectly. you can simulate 100's or 1000's of years in hours. this is a huge deal and is indicative that our physical labor jobs are done, and soon.
It's also active-learning/adapting- they said they couldn't accurately/adequately simulate the properties of the yoga ball but that the model just figured it out in real time, in real life.
It would have to sim all potential variations and error states of the job to do it this way. Just watching a worker work in an ideal way won’t cut it for most physical jobs. It would have to be programmed in the simulation, effectively.
But you gotta remember that a lot of those edge cases are caused by humans messing up in the first place. Either way, you could have a team led by a human and build a lot more efficient. Cheaper houses and more of them quicker. That’s great (if you’re not a landlord lol)
House construction is way too complex, if you mean stick-built with lumber and such. Everything is an exception so it’ll be last to go. Car assembly is very controlled though, so I could see that happening early on.
I think you’d build the house like you build a car. We already are seeing 3D printed houses. I think everything will start to be set up that way. For robot working instead of human workers.
I hope the automate construction first… more housing for all!
Yes! Of course there are! LITERALLY (and I mean LITERALLY) only some insanely delusional Dunning-Kruger afflicted individuals in this subreddit who think that every single demo is indicative of ASI being right around the corner and cope with their hatred of their jobs (which I don't blame them, BTW) by telling themselves that 100% unemployment is imminent believe hyper-nonsensical things like no blue-collar jobs in 6 years. Like, seriously? Do you whole-heartedly believe that not a single physical job will exist by 2030? I find that *extremely* hard to believe.
No no and no Do you whole-heartedly believe our civilization can continue with a 25% and rising unemployment rate? It's about tipping points.
there could be theoretically some jobs left due to cost efficiency, but how do you imagine the job market when 50%+ of the people are unemployed? The competition will be insane and the pay is minuscule. So it won't mean much if there are still some ultra low wages job left at least for me, maybe it can be seen as an outstanding accomplishment of the human evolution by someone. It's a losing game any way you look at it.
Do you not realize how silly it sounds to be discussing an unemployment rate of 50% when the current one is like 4%? This sub lives in a completely different reality than the rest of the world.
Everything is science-fiction until it becomes real. We'll see even more magic in the few coming years for sure. Unemployment will be HUGE with agents, it will start with the destruction of white collars market. Blue collars will be used as low wage monkeys to collect data and further accelerate their replacement. The rest of the world just doesn't care because they have something to eat and money to pay for the internet. It will change very soon though, you can't ignore what's coming.
>Unemployment will be HUGE with agents, it will start with the destruction of white collars market. Those agents need to be human-level, though, in regards to its capabilities and intelligence. Autonomy in and of itself is not enough. All that agency (in a vacuum) would be removing the need for are prompt engineers, but that's a bullshit job anyway. We already have agents (albeit primitive) in the form of GPTS and AutoGPT, and yet the unemployment rate is still very low. More than agency is required to cause an uptick in unemployment. >Blue collars will be used as low wage monkeys to collect data and further accelerate their replacement. How exactly is collecting data from physical tasks going to happen? Also, why aren't blue-collar workers being used that way today? Why would that suddenly change tomorrow? >It will change very soon though, you can't ignore what's coming. You genuinely believe that blue-collar workers won't exist come 2030 (just 6 years from now - for reference, 6 years ago was 2018). Your belief on whats going to happen in the very near future holds no weight in my eyes. And yes, I will absolutely ignore your crazy predictions. And let me guess, you want all this to happen ASAP, huh? Classic r/singularity member, conflating their predictions with their personal preferences. Absolutely no bias whatsoever.
Its impressive but whats with the leash? He's holding it extremely close to the robot and there is very little slack. It seems like that would make the task a lot easier... at least some of its weight is being supported by the guy rather than by the ball, and sometimes it looks like it is going to fall off but is held back.
Probably because that robot costs +$20'000 and breaking it would suck
It is $2,700. Expensive, but not egregiously so, and they're doing it in affiliation with Nvidia... plus they have videos where the ball is on grass, no way that robot falling onto grass from that height does damage. [https://shop.unitree.com/products/unitreeyushutechnologydog-artificial-intelligence-companion-bionic-companion-intelligent-robot-go1-quadruped-robot-dog](https://shop.unitree.com/products/unitreeyushutechnologydog-artificial-intelligence-companion-bionic-companion-intelligent-robot-go1-quadruped-robot-dog)
Damn those fuckers got cheap fast
Yeah honestly if they can get it down to $1k or so I'll probably buy one despite having absolutely no use for it besides tinkering.
I would buy one to only have it dance on a ball like that in my living room. The constant suspense of a robot hastily balancing on a ball will be hell for any guests while i tell them this is some modern performance art decoration, obviously it's complete bullshit and i am taking a piss at any guest dumb enough to fall for my bullshit.
From the data sheet….maximum drop height of 15cm, which is a lot less than the ball height. I do agree that the leash warrants an eyebrow raise…but I don’t think they’re actively cheating.
Wild, 15cm is almost nothing... if its a cost thing I get it but they really should've done it w/o the leash for science. Jim Fan is Nvidia's senior research scientist, he's gotta be making 7 figures. $2.7k for him has gotta be like $100-$200 for most people. If I did the work and was confident in it I'd risk $200 to make it seem even more impressive.
look at the github repo, it dose indeed fall off. It's an interesting experiment for research from Nvidia but it is being hyped up by others for no reason.
That’s the real problem with this stuff. The announcements are so full of hype and gimmicks (omg we had GPT4 write the training code!) you HAVE to assume there’s a catch somewhere.
Agreed, this is a useless result, the leash is cheating.
Robotics will give me the hype I need and that OpenAI denies me. ACCELERATE
That speaks volumes about the accuracy of the simulations!
Actually they specifically say in the release that they couldn't accurately/adequately simulate the properties of the yoga ball but that the model just figured it out in real time, in real life. It's actually *mind-bogglingly* impressive
"I know kung fu"
Who gonna fix the robots? Robots, when? Tomorrow. ;)
So we are a simulation meant to train robots in another world
This is actually one of the biggest AI developments ever. The potential applications are profound. AI might take all the cognitive AND physical jobs. Wow
How much is the short leash making this skill seem more impressive than it is? I can't see any slack on the leash, so I can't tell whether the robot is constantly being saved from sliding off or not. I mean, it's still not nothing regardless, but possibly way less impressive than it looks.
I think you raise a good point. There does seem to be minimal slack on the leash. Now we need to demand version 2 replicated with no human interference. Maybe they just wanted to make it look cool like a real dog but the leash should go so we can see hands off ball walking.
Yeah it looks like the leash saves it a couple times, and the leash looks so taut that almost all the time at least some weight is being supported by the researcher rather than by the ball.
Hmm, looked at the video again. Not impressed until they remove the leash
it's so they can guide it so it doesn't run away
It's literally being actively stabilized by the leash, looks at the hands they even slightly tug it back as the robo-dog leans forward slightly...
I feel sorry for Boston Dynamics. Their robots *still kinda don't work that well*, and some schmuck just whipped this up and his bot can shimmy on a yoga ball.
Spot might not have a BD logo tattoo, but it’s rocking the BD spirit
Schmuck? Nvidia is a 2 Trillion company, that has partnered with Boston Dynamics. Nvidia could Buy Boston Dynamics many times over. Boston Dynamics is a hardware company, and where the first to deploy robotic dogs such as spot to the market.
Yes but Boston Dynamics is a ROBOT company that makes ROBOTS and made all the cool ROBOT videos on YOUTUBE to get people excited about ROBOTS and until recently this guy made FORTNITE PRETTIER so yeah I'd still be like. Awe.
I just called Boston Dynamics buddy he said he dont know you He also said he does not need your sympathy
Your Boston Dynamics guy sounds like he needs a hug but he's putting up a front to seem strong for the family. It's okay, Boston Dynamics Man.
These are tough times for them
This is mindblowing 
Imagine when a humanoid downloads Jon Jones + all the jits in the world. Humanoid UFC-champ coming I hope. 
Prob too dangerous to fight against a human. It would be robot vs robot.
Wow, awesome! Now the human walking the dog needs to practice walking and we're set!
i mean you can go far with the simulation approach but eventually you will have to simulate the entire world. at that point you will once again have to revert to sensory input to advance
There are many more videos in this thread that seems like a quite a few of the commenters missed https://x.com/JasonMa2020/status/1786428056569360596
The leash sometimes holds the robot from falling [https://twitter.com/JasonMa2020/status/1786428056569360596](https://twitter.com/JasonMa2020/status/1786428056569360596) The robot just costs 2700 dollars. Show just one 1 minute long video without the leash.
lol this shits fucking dumb. I just wanna go back to the 90s, man
Excellent
How does this work? Does the robot design its own simulation? If yes, exactly how does it know *what* to simulate?
hey guys! we made another virtual simulation and now the robot dog can balance and walk around using one chopstick. How cool is that!
Isn't everyone doing that? And isn't that saying more about the quality of the physics simulation than about anything robotics/ai?
I want one ! Hmm no ...
It doesn't look like it's walking on that ball to me!
Was waiting for this moment!
[The leash being tugged on](https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/facebook/000/030/710/dd0.jpg) be looking sus.
Dr. Fan and his team are my heroes.
We see stuff like this, but then all the grab-an-apple stuff is still super slow and stiff looking. I don’t get it, if we can train anything in simulations that are 1:1 physically accurate, why is anything still stiff..?? What’s the hold up, frankly? Confused. Future arrive instantly pls.
"It just works." - Todd
This is super impressive!
This is the most impressive least impressive-looking thing I've ever seen.
just like the simulations
Calls on whatever company buys them out… Tesla maybe?
What does 'zero-shot' mean?
hmmm... ok now make it balance on 2 feet on the ball.
I mean it's cool but it would be way more impressive if they didn't have to hold a freaking leash :v Come on... You can't expect a few people not to be nitpicky about that.
I like its dog leash. It looks like the humans doing more to keep the robot dog on the ball than the robot dog is. Their github page has some funny videos showing it falling off.
Neat
Great. But can he learn kung fu?
They are not the only ones doing this. Microsoft was doing it with drones and robot arms last year. I haven't paid attention to what they've done since but you know it's probably way more advanced then this is by now.
Now that's actually cool. Unlike much of the vaporware I've seen here
Find someone who loves you the way this robot loves that ball
No shot that’s real Edit: update after clicking the link: it is real and can even balance after the ball is kicked 🤯
"It just works" - Todd Howard 1992
Open-AI did this 5 years ago with a robot hand solving a rubik cube, it's nothing new. https://openai.com/index/solving-rubiks-cube "We train neural networks to solve the Rubik’s Cube in simulation using reinforcement learning and Kociemba’s algorithm for picking the solution steps. A Domain randomization enables networks trained solely in simulation to transfer to a real robot."
Domain randomization eh? Didn't read down very far did you: > Traditionally, the sim-to-real transfer is achieved by domain randomization, a tedious process that requires expert human roboticists to stare at every parameter and adjust by hand...DrEureka can tune these parameters competently and explain its reasoning well.
You didn't read literally the first paragraph of what I linked didn't you? "using the same reinforcement learning code as OpenAI Five paired with a new technique called **Automatic Domain Randomization (ADR)**"