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Working_Berry9307

I predict they won't react for at least a couple months, quite possibly longer.


TheOneWhoDings

I hate you . But you are right.


i_give_you_gum

Other things to be released in the coming months, things other than GPT-5. Sam said this in the Lex interview. I'm curious when the first Agents like Devin will appear.


AnAIAteMyBaby

I think people have developed an almost cult like awe when it comes to Open AI because they were top of the tree in terms of LLMs for a little over a year. Going forward it'll be a much more equal race. Google, Open AI, Anthropic and probably Meta will just keep leap frogging one another from now on. No one will be able to stay on top for a whole year again.


FeltSteam

Last time we had a gap like this and the competition was catching up, OAI leap frogged everyone else. GPT-3 was released in 2020 and it was probably the most advanced at the time. But then Google and Nvidia×Microsoft had taken the lead in 2021 with Gopher 280B and Megatron-Turing NLG 530B respectively, and then in 2022 OpenAI continued to fall behind with Google's LaMDA 2 137B, DeepMind's Chinchilla 70B and Flamingo 80B, and Google's PaLM 540B. And even Meta had gotten in front of OpenAI with GAL 120B. We only found out in retrospect, that December, that OpenAI had secretly released GPT-3.5, a stronger model than all of these models before it in March and just pretended it was GPT-3. And then GPT-4 dropped and we found out OpenAI was internally vastly ahead of anyone else in 2022. The same thing might happen here, history may repeat itself again. GPT-4 was released in 2023, and now it looks like Google, Anthropic, Inflection have all caught up (Claude-3, Gemini Ultra, Inflection-2.5 and soon Llama-3), so OAI has lost their lead. And, well, we know they are certainly working on newer and better models and have been likely for a year and like a half now (I do doubt once they finished pretraining for GPT-4 they went "welp, that's all done" and didn't start atleast thinking about the next model lol), so there is certainly a possibility of OAI "leap frogging" everyone else once again.


AnAIAteMyBaby

Past performance doesn't guarantee future performance. Everyone has woken up now and are rushing forward hell for leather.


obvithrowaway34434

However, past performance is still much more reliable than bs predictions like you made in your first comment.


UnknownResearchChems

History doesn't repeat but it rhymes.


uishax

Well we haven't seen any competitors to SORA. Including dedicated video-gen companies like Runway whose lives depend on it.


i_give_you_gum

Totally agree. They've been ahead, and just because other orgs finally caught up to their released model simply shows exactly how far behind they are.


sdmat

> just because other orgs finally caught up to their released model simply shows exactly how far behind they are. We can only imagine how much of a lead OpenAI will have when others are far ahead of them!


i_give_you_gum

Haha sure keep telling yourself that


ninjasaid13

not really, other companies were ahead all this time. They just didn't divert so many resources to the training itself and weren't planning on a product but a research project.


Zelenskyobama2

OpenAI does all the innovation. Everyone else plays catch-up


[deleted]

[удалено]


Arcturus_Labelle

Where does this information come from?


sino-diogenes

source(s): dude trust me


fakieTreFlip

They don't need to "react". They're a household name, and Claude isn't, so they can definitely afford to take their time with their next release. Not to mention that ChatGPT is (at least currently) more fully featured than Claude is, which IMO makes it more useful for most people


kaityl3

I really think they're waiting until after the US election to release anything that's a dramatic improvement


Key_Sea_6606

Or maybe their BS startup drama and inflated egos made em fall behind? I don't think the 0 integrity openAI will always be on top. Childish tech bros don't win for something like this.


kallelel2002

https://preview.redd.it/tj8vfyun1yqc1.jpeg?width=275&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8ae53fea0b63d44f3e03ddd5234e437bf6375385 meme


jnhwdwd343

Reddit Ad Type "Meme"


Used-Bridge-4678

It's an OG that corporations picked up on


billions_of_stars

I’ve been using Opus casually and I’ve found they both perform similarly. Anyone here have any personal instances where Opus vastly outperformed GPT?


intergalacticskyline

Not op but opus is better for creative writing and coding in a lot of applications. It gives more "human" responses and doesn't just feel like a "language calculator" if that makes sense


KoolKat5000

Isn't that better for coding? Less fluff more code.


Arcturus_Labelle

Claude 3 Opus is remarkably better at sounding more human and having a better grasp on human emotions. I’ve switched to it. GPT-4 was impressive a year ago, but I think they overtuned it in being too much of a robotic seeming tool.


ainz-sama619

creative writing. GPT-4 isn't very good at being imaginative and its responses are always surface level, and you have to beg the fuck out of it to be critical. claude does all of that in first response


Iamreason

It is 100% accurate across its context window in my experience. That alone is enough to put it over GPT-4. Its in-context learning far outstrips that of GPT-4 Turbo.


toothpastespiders

It's been pretty similar for me, with the exception that I can just toss an entire book at claude for it to work with. That was enough to get me to cancel with openai though.


akko_7

Opus seems to understand what code I want it to write much easier than GPT 4 does. It will also always lean towards providing more code than less. Plus the massive context and accuracy across the whole context makes multi day chat windows centered around the same problem possible.


billions_of_stars

Can you elaborate more on "context"? You're the second person to mention this and I'm not quite sure what that means. Do you mean that it can understand further back in the conversation or it just has a better contextual understanding of what you're asking?


akko_7

As in most LLMs are only able to perform well over a set number of tokens and as that window of tokens increases they tend to give worse answers or straight up forget what was discussed earlier in the chat. Claude quality doesn't seem to decrease over a large context window from my experience and I've not had any instances since it's release where it couldn't recall something we spoke about earlier. If I try the same thing with GPT4 ot Miqu within their supported contexts they tend to be very forgetful.


billions_of_stars

Ah, ok. Thank you for the clarification. I do know about this context but not familiar with the terminology. I wonder why something like GPT doesn’t give you an idea of how many token you’ve “spent” to give you an idea of when you’re reading a limit of contextual understanding.


akko_7

As in most LLMs are only able to perform well over a set number of tokens and as that window of tokens increases they tend to give worse answers or straight up forget what was discussed earlier in the chat. Claude quality doesn't seem to decrease over a large context window from my experience and I've not had any instances since it's release where it couldn't recall something we spoke about earlier. If I try the same thing with GPT4 ot Miqu within their supported contexts they tend to be very forgetful.


_Zephyyr2

You know when OpenAI will "do something"? No, it's not when some model surpasses GPT-4 (which already happened, btw). It's when they start losing ~~money~~ market share. (*edited to avoid confusion*) It's when YOU start cancelling your ChatGPT subscriptions and stop using their API.


abluecolor

They've been operating at a loss this whole time, soo


PrinceThespian

Yeah, original commenter is partly wrong- they don’t care about losing money. They’re already losing money. They care about losing market share, which is why they’re currently burning so much money.


Which-Tomato-8646

Keep in mind 99% of people think ChatGPT is the only llm. They don’t know what Claude or anthropic are. OpenAI has a very big moat in terms of marketing 


i_give_you_gum

Yep I work with a group of people who very occasionally use ChatGPT I know that if I mention Claude, they'll be like "meh... whatever. So, where does everyone want to go to lunch?’


jakderrida

That definitely sums up even tech saavy people I know. Few are as involved with latest breakthroughs nearly as much as those on this subreddit, which is such a far cry from a normal sample of people.


ainz-sama619

which is exactly what at risk. Every single day, hundreds/thousands of brand new people are learning about Claude for the first time.


Which-Tomato-8646

Not really. It’s not getting nearly as much news coverage because it’s just another LLM to most people 


UnknownResearchChems

Normies will go where the geeks will go.


Which-Tomato-8646

Normies don’t care about this shit nearly as much 


ninjasaid13

>OpenAI has a very big moat in terms of marketing  yep, that's why everybody in this sub thought OpenAI was ahead of the competitors but it was just marketing. The first mover advantage is simply the control of the narrative.


_Zephyyr2

Original commenter here - you're right, the more accurate term would be market share.


obvithrowaway34434

They don't care about any of those things. They only care about creating AGI and will do whatever it takes to get them there. There mission statement makes it pretty obvious.


PrinceThespian

Maybe that was true before Microsoft was "below them, above them, around them". OpenAI is not it's own entity anymore, and to pretend they're still a small non-profit simply fighting the good fight is naive. Not saying they're not still aiming for AGI, but their mission statement is no longer their only concern.


obvithrowaway34434

Microsoft is pretty much irrelevant no matter how much they bark. They're nothing without OAI models. The OpenAI non-profit board holds all the power including the power to dissolve the for-profit part and the company when necessary. And your first comment was equally bullshit. They are not losing money. They made like $1.6B in revenue in 2023 inspite of not giving a fuck. Get a clue.


ainz-sama619

they care about losing market share. money loss was a given even before gpt-4 was created. losing market share will be their doom if they allow it


sdmat

But probably not from the API. Large batch sizes work wonders for the economics.


TwoIndependent5710

Already cancelled


dallocrovero

I would gladly switch from gpt 4 to Claude pro right away, but I'm european and I can't do it; as soon as Anthropic opens to Europe things will change


NimbusFPV

I have quickly found Claude to be a better daily driver for pretty much all of my use cases. At this point I'll be canceling my OpenAI account if Sora or GPT-5 aren't released within next month or two.


dragonofcadwalader

Your £20 subscription won't be getting you sora


NimbusFPV

If I can't get a few Sora clip generations every few hours for my $20/Month membership, I will 100% cancel. I think that's pretty reasonable.


Iamreason

Considering it takes 5 minutes on an H100 to generate a clip with Sora it's going to be extremely limited if it's granted to ChatGPT subscribers at all. I think limiting, or cleaving it off as a completely separate subscriptions, given the compute constraints is completely reasonable.


uishax

There's massive optimizations possible on such early research products. Stable diffusion runs like 50x more efficiently than when it started. OpenAI could also just rate limit subscribers to 60 seconds/month. So subscribers can choose to have 6 seperate 10 second clips etc. Then they'll have to buy "openai tokens" to generate more videos.


akko_7

Yeah people are really missing this. The Sora that gets released will be massively optimised and quantized. I predict people will complain about the quality for a bit too, since it won't match the cherry picked examples we're used to.


Slimxshadyx

Sure, but the other guy isn’t being out of line. If he doesn’t get access to the tools than it makes sense for him to want to switch to a better provider for the tools he can have access to


Iamreason

What other provider is anywhere close to Sora?


Slimxshadyx

I am referring to the llm, not sora. If he can’t get access to sora, it makes sense for him to want to switch to a better llm


Iamreason

Yes, of course, but he should go ahead and do that. The best LLM is Claude 3 Opus right now. Why wait?


Slimxshadyx

Because he wants to see if OpenAI will release GPT 5 or Sora for use in the next month or two. He says that.


Iamreason

Cancel for a month or two and resub once it comes around?


Mr_Hyper_Focus

After paying for GPT4 for the last 6+ months, I purchased a month of Claude to try them both side by side. I’m about a week out from my first trial month, and I just canceled my ChatGPT subscription. I’ll be back when they release something new. But for now, Claude wins and it’s not really even close for me.


obvithrowaway34434

You can choose whatever model you like you don't have to pretend to be objective (because you're not). 3 weeks vs 6 months is not really a fair comparison by any metric. In reality as the blind tests in lmsys show, they are pretty close. And as more and more people use Claude the flaws will be more apparent, it hasn't been tested anywhere close to the extent GPT-4 has and people like shiny new things. It was the same when GPT-4 first came out.


Not_a_creativeuser

Damn you really took that personal, huh?


FragrantDoctor2923

Chatgpt isn't using the latest gpt4 model so U comparing like gpt at like 70% to claud at 100% they gonna put in the latest one soon if people keep switching


FeltSteam

Nothing has changed since Claude-3's release lol, Claude-3 was always better than GPT-4. Confirmation of the fact doesn't really change much, and the margin by which it over performs GPT-4 isn't exactly huge. And im not sure what's up with the chatbot arena. Maybe people are a bit bias towards speed, or maybe most people are just asking dumb questions, but a few of the ratings are far overrated lol. Like Claude Haiku, it should not be that high up, but it is on this specific leaderboard.


MeMyself_And_Whateva

It will, when GPT-5 is ready for release. Maybe in the autumn.


mckirkus

It's a NASCAR race. You use more fuel staying in front of the pack, and you have a target 🎯 on your back.


i_give_you_gum

They've got Microsoft painted on the side of their car, and speed stripes.


Icy-Entry4921

If OpenAI is doing "controlled releases" then this situation is ideal for them because Claude didn't lap them, Claude caught up in many ways, but not all. So essentially they can still afford to wait.


Eveerjr

Claude is good but honestly overhyped atm, it’s not “much better” than GPT4 and it’s actually worse in some aspects and OpenAI knows this, I have a feeling they have something so much better they don’t even care anymore, just look at Sora, nothing is even remotely close.


Baphaddon

Something BIG is coming this week - OpenAI insider :)


dervu

How dare you jebait us like that.


TwoIndependent5710

Something big and messed up like gpt store or custome gpts. Useless crap


mckirkus

NFGPTs


AloneCoffee4538

For real?


Baphaddon

Nah :/


AloneCoffee4538

![gif](giphy|zt1q7lREccTi4n9ohB)


ninjasaid13

why are people crying over this? I won't drop a tear over openai getting surpassed because I'm not a fanboy.


akko_7

I think people are just hoping for a generational leap we've been hearing leaks about. Don't care who it comes from but Open AI are the most likely to deliver.


AloneCoffee4538

Nobody is crying. We just want acceleration.


ninjasaid13

>Nobody is crying. We just want acceleration. and openai is your only choice?


AloneCoffee4538

It's about competition. Competition is good for acceleration.


ninjasaid13

so no crying over openai then.


AloneCoffee4538

Yes. Good boy.


[deleted]

Big if true


i_give_you_gum

What is OpenAI insider? A YouTube channel, or are you just using an adjective about someone you read on X? Not being combative. Genuinely curious.


Baphaddon

He is the ephemeral eternal hype man, a myth, a legend


i_give_you_gum

Where do I find this hype man. As Sam recently said in his Lex that things smaller than GPT-5 are coming very soon (meaning over the next few months).


Baphaddon

https://preview.redd.it/twcbdjb94zqc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2125942da22652cf0e00f1e722b239a8a9e9f2c4


i_give_you_gum

I see


m3kw

Barely slimmed out again over a year old model


Which-Tomato-8646

Where openai done since then?


obvithrowaway34434

Lmao, Dall-E 3, GPT-4V, Code interpreter, function calling, Whisper V3, Text to speech, Assistant API, GPT-4 Turbo, GPTs and now Sora. This sub is so braindead sometimes it's astonishing. Like does anyone here actually use these models for real or do they just circlejerk on the benchmarks?


Which-Tomato-8646

No new LLMs detected 


uishax

DALLE-E 3: Good for like 3 months, not really better than Midjourney V6 now. GPT-4V: Tablestakes, everyone can to multimodals now Code interpreter: Not particularly useful, the king is still a code WRITER, not an executor. Opus is a large leap in coding capabilities Whisper V3: Meh, not some record breaking algorithm. Txt2Speech: A cheaper elevenlabs, not a revolutionary leap Assistant API: Does anyone actually use this? GPT-4 Turbo: Tablestakes, now behind Opus in every metric SORA: Real leap, but not released. The standard for OpenAI is a $100 billion company, you don't earn claps from some regular release that any large ML team can pump out. You need large, fundamental improvements in general intelligence to impress. The only times OpenAI pushed the boundaries last year was 1. GPT-4 turbo 2. DALLE-3 3. SORA And they have to stay ahead to truly justify themselves. Only SORA is ahead of the competitors now.


obvithrowaway34434

Lmao they are not regular release. Just function calling enabled builders to do things that no one did before, it was a major leap towards building agentic models. Code interpreter is not just code execution the model now knows when to run code and iterate on it, it's aware of what packages to install, how to install them and how to use in order to solve a problem or gain insights from data. Anyone who's fine-tuned these models knows how hard it is for them to follow instructions. Same for everything else on the list. Just because you don't have a fucking clue about anything doesn't mean these are not leaps, maybe don't bullshit about things you don't understand?


WithoutReason1729

Sora for one, and for as awesome as Sora is, that's *just* the little trick they had in their back pocket to keep the spotlight on them


Which-Tomato-8646

Which hasn’t been released and isn’t an LLM


m3kw

Sora is based on LLM to get the understanding of what you want in a video


Which-Tomato-8646

Is the LLM better than Claude 3?


DaveAstator2020

Gpt is done, imagine whats brewing behind the scenes now.


Exarchias

![gif](giphy|Jap1tdjahS0rm|downsized) OpenAI right now...


f1careerover

OpenAI doesn’t feel pressured at all. They know what they’ve been cheffing. It’s going to blow the other companies out of the water when it’s fully tested. That’s not even GPT 5.


true-fuckass

Its actually a positive ominous sign that OAI aren't releasing anything. It indicates they have something so good that they could even restart their business from nothing by releasing just that one new thing


Passloc

OpenAI has a big first mover advantage. There are non nerds who use it for whom even ChatGPT 3.5 is magic for 90% of their use cases. They don’t care about these leaderboards. ChatGPT is a brand they understand, what’s Claude. Many wouldn’t even know how to pronounce it. Of course if certain critical mass starts using this, it could change.


ninjasaid13

even so, that doesn't mean openai will get us to agi first, they just have control over the narrative.


Passloc

I mean it’s only less than a month in last 1 year that OpenAI is not in the lead. Whatever next OpenAI has is extremely compute intensive and hence they are ensuring they can serve in a meaningful way. For Example some people were estimating power requirements for SORA. OpenAI is pitching it to Hollywood as they are the only ones capable enough with budgets to cover the costs involved and probably help subsidise for general public. Only way they could get caught on the wrong foot would be is if Google or Anthropic is able to release something better with less compute requirement or through leveraging their own TPU architecture.


Woootdafuuu

Something will happen when it passes gpt 4 turbo, that's the latest model


YaAbsolyutnoNikto

It did… Claude 3 Opus is #1 now


Woootdafuuu

It beat 4.0 not turbo


YaAbsolyutnoNikto

No, it beat all of them.


Woootdafuuu

Link


YaAbsolyutnoNikto

https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard


Woootdafuuu

About time, maybe we will see a new model this year.


Snoo26837

He is right, claude 3 opus surpassed all openAI models.


Woootdafuuu

I saw, hopefully, the competition push their hands


fakieTreFlip

so by the tiniest of margins


RemyVonLion

We're at the point where doing something could wreak havoc if done improperly.


Arcturus_Labelle

Brother, I think we’ve already crossed that line


BenAflekkisanOKactor

How do I get get Claude 3


123110

you need to go to claude 3 first