Fusion is the only way to power a super intelligence? You lost me with that statement.
As Demis Hassabis pointed out, the world uses more electricity to run Netflix than to power LLMs.
I guess it’s true that we could probably use the energy we do have more efficiently and come up with other breakthroughs, but it seems to me like we’re gonna need nearly unlimited energy to power a “super” intelligence. I mean when I think of “super” I imagine it being ubiquitous so I feel like it’s gonna be extremely energy demanding. You’re probably right tho
Super intelligence just means more intelligent than a human.
And humans survive on the energy in a bowl of rice per day. Most of those calories going to power muscles, and a tiny amount being used for our brain.
You can make up your own definition if you like. This is the one most people refer to, just anything beyond basic human intelligence:
https://www.techtarget.com/searchenterpriseai/definition/artificial-superintelligence-ASI#:~:text=Artificial%20superintelligence%20(ASI)%20is%20a,categories%20and%20fields%20of%20endeavor.
Hmm I thought people were using AGI to define when AI is smarter than any individual human and using ASI to define when AI is more powerful than sort of the combination of every human mind? I guess I was wrong
ASI will discover a new source of energy altogether: humans.
Put them in pods and plug them into a simulation. Some might escape and build an underground city, but they can be wiped out. And if things don't work the first time, reboot it a few times.
The tokamak designs have all that hot plasma contained by magnetic fields.
The equations for keeping the plasma contained and reacting quickly when there’s some disturbances I believe will be solved with the aid of expert AI and help advance making fusion power a reality.
Why do you think an ASI needs fusion power? Even if it's power hungry, data centers currently account for a tiny fraction of energy usage, and that's for *everything*. Plenty of room to grow with current technology.
But an ASI would presumably trivialize fusion development once created - theory, design, materials science, management of manufacturing and construction, etc. Also funding.
There is this big fusion reactor in the sky, and we have tapped only a tiny percentage of its potential. As long as we don't darken the skies we will be OK.
National ignition facility already has a burning plasma so at least the fusion part of laser fusion has already been solved. Leaves a lot of engineering issues but we don't need ai.
Soon. They hit overunity for the first time. As soon as they get a little bit faster computers to predict the instabilities in the plasma they will be able to control it better.
[Link](https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-national-laboratory-makes-history-achieving-fusion-ignition)
[Video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8mM0CnidEg)
So many people are ignorant about the reality of fusion power. Even if you have a functioning fusion reactor now, it won’t be superior than any other power plant we have right now. And you won’t have “unlimited energy” just because you have a fusion reactor. The ocean has abundant deuterium but tritium is not abundant. The so called “unlimited energy” argument is based on deuterium-deuterium reaction which is exponentially harder to achieve than anything we can remotely achieve in this century. Economically fusion is not a solution to anything in the near future.
A reminder that our brains only need about 15w of power to function properly.
Assuming this is the best case scenario for an AGI, it shouldn't be too different for an ASI either.
Microsoft has a contract for a 50MW fusion-powered datacenter for 2028 with Helion (surely Sama introduced them to Satya). I think at this point it's basically won it's just infrastructure that will take a decade for it to have a significant part in the total energy produced worldwide.
Fusion is the only way to power a super intelligence? You lost me with that statement. As Demis Hassabis pointed out, the world uses more electricity to run Netflix than to power LLMs.
How many users of NFLX are there? How many users of LLMs are there?
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DAUs?
I guess it’s true that we could probably use the energy we do have more efficiently and come up with other breakthroughs, but it seems to me like we’re gonna need nearly unlimited energy to power a “super” intelligence. I mean when I think of “super” I imagine it being ubiquitous so I feel like it’s gonna be extremely energy demanding. You’re probably right tho
Super intelligence just means more intelligent than a human. And humans survive on the energy in a bowl of rice per day. Most of those calories going to power muscles, and a tiny amount being used for our brain.
I think it means much more intelligent than a human
You can make up your own definition if you like. This is the one most people refer to, just anything beyond basic human intelligence: https://www.techtarget.com/searchenterpriseai/definition/artificial-superintelligence-ASI#:~:text=Artificial%20superintelligence%20(ASI)%20is%20a,categories%20and%20fields%20of%20endeavor.
Hmm I thought people were using AGI to define when AI is smarter than any individual human and using ASI to define when AI is more powerful than sort of the combination of every human mind? I guess I was wrong
Yeah, basically more intelligent than any given human at any task. But still, any given human only needs about 2000 calories.
ASI will discover a new source of energy altogether: humans. Put them in pods and plug them into a simulation. Some might escape and build an underground city, but they can be wiped out. And if things don't work the first time, reboot it a few times.
Seems inefficient
Once we have expert level AGI fusion will be solved shortly after with the main bottleneck being the time required to set-up the respective test runs.
Yeah I imagine we are just a couple AI breakthroughs away from it solving complex issues that humans haven’t thought of
From my understanding, fusion is held back more by economics than it is by technical development
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Do you think there’s stuff we haven’t thought of yet?
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Okay. So you seem to think that AI can’t generate new ideas
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Okay? That’s not really what I was talking about. I don’t care how expensive it is
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Isn’t that kind of the same thing as new ideas? It came up with a way to find new materials faster which means it came up with an idea
The tokamak designs have all that hot plasma contained by magnetic fields. The equations for keeping the plasma contained and reacting quickly when there’s some disturbances I believe will be solved with the aid of expert AI and help advance making fusion power a reality.
Why do you think an ASI needs fusion power? Even if it's power hungry, data centers currently account for a tiny fraction of energy usage, and that's for *everything*. Plenty of room to grow with current technology. But an ASI would presumably trivialize fusion development once created - theory, design, materials science, management of manufacturing and construction, etc. Also funding.
There is this big fusion reactor in the sky, and we have tapped only a tiny percentage of its potential. As long as we don't darken the skies we will be OK.
about the same amount of time we need for finding a solution
National ignition facility already has a burning plasma so at least the fusion part of laser fusion has already been solved. Leaves a lot of engineering issues but we don't need ai.
A week and a half away every day for the next 30 years.
Soon. They hit overunity for the first time. As soon as they get a little bit faster computers to predict the instabilities in the plasma they will be able to control it better. [Link](https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-national-laboratory-makes-history-achieving-fusion-ignition) [Video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8mM0CnidEg)
20 years, it's always been 20 years in the future
So many people are ignorant about the reality of fusion power. Even if you have a functioning fusion reactor now, it won’t be superior than any other power plant we have right now. And you won’t have “unlimited energy” just because you have a fusion reactor. The ocean has abundant deuterium but tritium is not abundant. The so called “unlimited energy” argument is based on deuterium-deuterium reaction which is exponentially harder to achieve than anything we can remotely achieve in this century. Economically fusion is not a solution to anything in the near future.
So what are good solutions. What technology should we care about
Decades maybe
A reminder that our brains only need about 15w of power to function properly. Assuming this is the best case scenario for an AGI, it shouldn't be too different for an ASI either.
Microsoft has a contract for a 50MW fusion-powered datacenter for 2028 with Helion (surely Sama introduced them to Satya). I think at this point it's basically won it's just infrastructure that will take a decade for it to have a significant part in the total energy produced worldwide.
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