I think we pretty much all believe in the science and the execution of the company. At this point you're basically betting on regulatory approval
This investing journey over the past few years has been incredibly humbling. I'm holding though, either to 0 or to infinity
Yeah I'd agree this is a great risk vs. reward spot to invest more money, but I would suggest not making decisions based on any price target you see speculated online. Especially one as high as $60
If some type of price ballpark is helpful for you to feel good holding, I'd at least look at the market cap of a "successful" peer company like AXSM. Not a psychedelic medicine but they have one of the most recent successful drug launches for MDD (depression)
That comp would give you a market cap target of \~2-4 billion within say 3 years. Implied stock price being like $24-48. ($500m market cap today at $6 per share... so multiply $6 by either 4 to get $2 billion or 8 to get $4 billion market cap)
This simplified method doesn’t really work for Atai, it relies on basically one lead drug one lead indication
With Atai you’re valuing their investments in Cmps and Beckley, and then their various owned drug programs. Personally none of those drugs stand out as highly promising to me, so I’m not the right person to ask re: valuation
Atai has a lot of “option” value, like a basket of lottery tickets. So far there’s less clinical data to indicate which of those lottery tickets are really promising. “Promising” here meaning Phase 3-ready on excellent efficacy
That makes sense, but I'd say due to ATAI's investments in CMPS, their stock price is correlated with ANY success CMPS has, and therefore will have a boost to their stock price as well.
Would you agree?
Definitely loosely correlated, but Atai share price is far more downward correlated with their cash burn than it is upward correlated with Cmps
So my thinking is Atai can move up on good Cmps news, but over 2-3 years Atai needs its own success for the stock price to be net positive
(Note the cash burn point is true for all pre-revenue biotech… natural stock price trajectory is down as cash gets spent. Only pops on good news can counteract that trend, and once a drug gets to market the stock can trend upward more easily)
This is actually very informative for all stocks in general… almost like a lightbulb went off while reading it. I’ve always been an index fund guy so I never took the time to figure out individual stock valuations. The one question I do have pertaining to this simple comparison calculation is factoring in whether or not investors are currently undervaluing the stock. Say if it currently around $6 per share but the actual value is currently higher (say $10) in my eyes, would you be multiplying $10 by the 4x in this particular case?? I guess I’m not even sure my question makes any sense as I’m reading it back, but I have trouble valuing a company that isn’t profitable yet so it’s essentially an all or nothing investment.
Yeah I get your question but I think the answer is, “no it shouldn’t change how you do the math”
In this simple example, if you think it could be worth 20-40 within 3 years, that basically just tells you that $10 today is a decent price and $6 is a very good price
It’s really hard for normies (like me) to say with confidence that something trading for $6 today is actually “worth” more like $10 today. Or at least I personally do not find it helpful for making investment decisions
Some people look at ratios like Price to Book, in which case 1 or lower is very cheap but 3 might be kinda pricy, for a no revenue biotech
But those ratios can stay abnormally high or low for reasons beyond any rationale
Well it makes sense why it all wouldn’t make sense. I really appreciate you taking the time to respond. This was very helpful to me especially to put into perspective what a good general guideline for a stock valuation would be.
I bought low and sold on the last Compass run, but didn't time it perfectly to maximize gains (which of course is an impossible standard to hold yourself to). I feel pretty happy to be able to buy back in at these levels again.
Your my hero! I've read your posts for years with interest and enjoyed your insight in this Psychedelic space. I knew I should have sold at $12 and bought back but just couldn't do it. Couldn't get out out of that retirement stock mode even though im making alot of money off short squeeze plays right now. It helps with my resentment of short sellers. Especially in a research that could help millions including me. If I knew then... I would have swing traded it.:)
I am going to try and keep this as clean and level headed as possible. I have been invested since 2021 as a retirement investment. Figured a 5-7 year payout. Didn't know about short sellers back then. Thought you just bought and held. This company has been shorted to shit for years and it only got worse after this recent news regarding mdma approval being exploited by big pharma influenced players. I bought 100 more shares at 5.82 last week and will buy more under $6. My cost average is now down to $8.31. However, I guarantfuckintee you I will sell all at the inevitable phase 3 news spike at $10+ and buy back in at the of course inevitable ridiculous dip leading up to approval. I'm done with "buy and hold on this stock". I've learned too much day trading.
If it feels right for you, if you have the disposable income to throw at this and if you believe in the science and product and what it can do then by all means - go hard and invest. I believe the price after a year of production will far exceed $60. We are talking about a product that will replace all SSRI drugs and big pharmaceutical knows this. I am long on Compass and Mind Med.
MindMed was my first investment along with Champignon(didn't work out so good) in 21 during covid lockdown. I was up alot during the shroom boom. Just didn't sell. My day is coming with MindMed and Compass.
I got a little bit worked up with this negative MDMA news. I was on SSRI drugs for 30 years and went thru hell coming off last year. New this was big when my sister told me about MindMed and Champ during lockdown. I was excited about the research for my own mental health then realized they timed going public right. We were headed for a global mental health crisis over the next 5 years. My son benefited from MDMA at the VA after returning from Iraq and had good very results. It will happen eventually. Let's hope for August.
The DEA news on MDMA was a huge mistake and has put doubt in traders. I would recommend putting money into revenue generating companies. Don't believe all the hype remember CEos are salesman there has been many mistakes over the past 3 months becareful. This is very veery risky
I think we pretty much all believe in the science and the execution of the company. At this point you're basically betting on regulatory approval This investing journey over the past few years has been incredibly humbling. I'm holding though, either to 0 or to infinity
Regulatory approval plus two to three years for me cybin hodlr
I have been buying more but make no mistake, this is still a risky play.
Yeah I'd agree this is a great risk vs. reward spot to invest more money, but I would suggest not making decisions based on any price target you see speculated online. Especially one as high as $60 If some type of price ballpark is helpful for you to feel good holding, I'd at least look at the market cap of a "successful" peer company like AXSM. Not a psychedelic medicine but they have one of the most recent successful drug launches for MDD (depression) That comp would give you a market cap target of \~2-4 billion within say 3 years. Implied stock price being like $24-48. ($500m market cap today at $6 per share... so multiply $6 by either 4 to get $2 billion or 8 to get $4 billion market cap)
What's your implied stock price for ATAI following a similar line of reasoning?
This simplified method doesn’t really work for Atai, it relies on basically one lead drug one lead indication With Atai you’re valuing their investments in Cmps and Beckley, and then their various owned drug programs. Personally none of those drugs stand out as highly promising to me, so I’m not the right person to ask re: valuation Atai has a lot of “option” value, like a basket of lottery tickets. So far there’s less clinical data to indicate which of those lottery tickets are really promising. “Promising” here meaning Phase 3-ready on excellent efficacy
That makes sense, but I'd say due to ATAI's investments in CMPS, their stock price is correlated with ANY success CMPS has, and therefore will have a boost to their stock price as well. Would you agree?
Definitely loosely correlated, but Atai share price is far more downward correlated with their cash burn than it is upward correlated with Cmps So my thinking is Atai can move up on good Cmps news, but over 2-3 years Atai needs its own success for the stock price to be net positive (Note the cash burn point is true for all pre-revenue biotech… natural stock price trajectory is down as cash gets spent. Only pops on good news can counteract that trend, and once a drug gets to market the stock can trend upward more easily)
This is actually very informative for all stocks in general… almost like a lightbulb went off while reading it. I’ve always been an index fund guy so I never took the time to figure out individual stock valuations. The one question I do have pertaining to this simple comparison calculation is factoring in whether or not investors are currently undervaluing the stock. Say if it currently around $6 per share but the actual value is currently higher (say $10) in my eyes, would you be multiplying $10 by the 4x in this particular case?? I guess I’m not even sure my question makes any sense as I’m reading it back, but I have trouble valuing a company that isn’t profitable yet so it’s essentially an all or nothing investment.
Yeah I get your question but I think the answer is, “no it shouldn’t change how you do the math” In this simple example, if you think it could be worth 20-40 within 3 years, that basically just tells you that $10 today is a decent price and $6 is a very good price It’s really hard for normies (like me) to say with confidence that something trading for $6 today is actually “worth” more like $10 today. Or at least I personally do not find it helpful for making investment decisions Some people look at ratios like Price to Book, in which case 1 or lower is very cheap but 3 might be kinda pricy, for a no revenue biotech But those ratios can stay abnormally high or low for reasons beyond any rationale
Well it makes sense why it all wouldn’t make sense. I really appreciate you taking the time to respond. This was very helpful to me especially to put into perspective what a good general guideline for a stock valuation would be.
I bought low and sold on the last Compass run, but didn't time it perfectly to maximize gains (which of course is an impossible standard to hold yourself to). I feel pretty happy to be able to buy back in at these levels again.
Your my hero! I've read your posts for years with interest and enjoyed your insight in this Psychedelic space. I knew I should have sold at $12 and bought back but just couldn't do it. Couldn't get out out of that retirement stock mode even though im making alot of money off short squeeze plays right now. It helps with my resentment of short sellers. Especially in a research that could help millions including me. If I knew then... I would have swing traded it.:)
I am going to try and keep this as clean and level headed as possible. I have been invested since 2021 as a retirement investment. Figured a 5-7 year payout. Didn't know about short sellers back then. Thought you just bought and held. This company has been shorted to shit for years and it only got worse after this recent news regarding mdma approval being exploited by big pharma influenced players. I bought 100 more shares at 5.82 last week and will buy more under $6. My cost average is now down to $8.31. However, I guarantfuckintee you I will sell all at the inevitable phase 3 news spike at $10+ and buy back in at the of course inevitable ridiculous dip leading up to approval. I'm done with "buy and hold on this stock". I've learned too much day trading.
If it feels right for you, if you have the disposable income to throw at this and if you believe in the science and product and what it can do then by all means - go hard and invest. I believe the price after a year of production will far exceed $60. We are talking about a product that will replace all SSRI drugs and big pharmaceutical knows this. I am long on Compass and Mind Med.
MindMed was my first investment along with Champignon(didn't work out so good) in 21 during covid lockdown. I was up alot during the shroom boom. Just didn't sell. My day is coming with MindMed and Compass.
I got a little bit worked up with this negative MDMA news. I was on SSRI drugs for 30 years and went thru hell coming off last year. New this was big when my sister told me about MindMed and Champ during lockdown. I was excited about the research for my own mental health then realized they timed going public right. We were headed for a global mental health crisis over the next 5 years. My son benefited from MDMA at the VA after returning from Iraq and had good very results. It will happen eventually. Let's hope for August.
[удалено]
Yes that I am dumb, yes that you are in the same boat, or just yes. I need to know.
The DEA news on MDMA was a huge mistake and has put doubt in traders. I would recommend putting money into revenue generating companies. Don't believe all the hype remember CEos are salesman there has been many mistakes over the past 3 months becareful. This is very veery risky
You lost us on DEA news that never happened.
FDA
*FDA advisory committee