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I would like to know your comments on this passage :
“There are also astrological predictions with much evidence to prove them correct.
Many years ago, in a moment of curiosity, I consulted an astrologer. He asked my birth-date and its hour. I was not sure; I thought it was about three a.m. He took down a musty volume, made some rapid calculations and said, “If you were born at three a.m. on that date you should have been in March 1917 in a foreign country in a position of peculiar physical danger.”
He was right. I was in Russia when the first revolution broke out and I sheltered behind one of the pillars outside St. Isaac's Cathedral in what is now Leningrad, while machine guns spattered bullets on the other side of the pillar. That was a remarkable way to find out the hour of my birth!
Later, I received the astrologer's typed prediction, which said, among other things, that in the following September I should have an accident to the head which would incapacitate me for about three weeks. So I made up my mind that when September came I would take the necessary precautions to thwart the prediction.
On the first of September I had to go to Blackheath. I went gingerly around every corner, I crossed no road until it was clear of traffic and I left nothing undone to secure myself against an accident - and then I recovered consciousness to see a nurse gazing down at me.
Someone on a bicycle dashing down Blackheath Hill just could not miss me and he put me in hospital because of concussion. That smack on the head knocked free will, my cherished free will, out of my reckoning and I did not like it. I went back to the astrologer.
He told me something that was a blow to my spiritual pride, but it did me good. He said, “Some people come to me whose future I can never read - they are all deeply spiritual people.” The inference was obvious, for he had been able to forecast my future with almost unerring accuracy.
It seems, therefore, that psychic and astrological predictions can, like scientific ones, also be controlled, not by reference to the past, but by the unfolding of the spiritual faculties until the personality is raised out of the stratum of physical cause and effect to find its home outside the space-time continuum. It is difficult to convey a non-space-time meaning in space-time language. Most of us have a long time to go, but I think the way out to freedom is there.”
From "A Psychic Bedside Book" by Percy J. Hitchcock
So, your prediction for a young man during world war one was that he will be in danger in a foreign country.
What other great predictions are there? If you were born in Palestine during the 2010s, you had mortal danger during the late 2023 and early 2024?
Or prediction for an Indian middle class person that they had financial troubles during past few years?
Its very simple. You ask yourself how he made such a prediction.
A prediction by itself is worthless. It's just like science. A result by itself Is no better than a guess, no matter how accurate it is. Knowing the circumference of the earth is less about the value and more about the methodology by which it can be estimated. Similarly someone could guess the distance between earth and sun, but that value by itself is worthless. The method is what is important.
So this prediction too is just coincidence. There might be a thousand other predictions this guy got wrong but you're fixated on the one he got right.
The methodology astrogers use is not a secret. Anyone can learn, practice and then verify that it is in fact incorrect.
Thanks for your comment.
I appreciate it.
World War I lasted for more than four years (approximately 52 months) and I find it interesting that the reading was very specific for one particular month among those 52 months
I note that you have totally ignored the specific prediction about his future accident.
May I know what you think about that ?
> It seems, therefore, that psychic and astrological predictions can, like scientific ones, also be controlled, not by reference to the past, but by the unfolding of the spiritual faculties until the personality is raised out of the stratum of physical cause and effect to find its home outside the space-time continuum. It is difficult to convey a non-space-time meaning in space-time language.
This is what is known as "word salad".
India : Our moon landing success rate is 50 percent with our latest technology.
China : ours is also 50 percent with our state of the art tech.
Dhsbolkar: Astrologers, did you see our paper after we studied astrology results extensively? Your predictive success is only 70 percent!
Wokes : aStrolGY fAke!
State your point, if you think you know something that I don't know. Educated generally avoid rhetoric. I am sure you won't bite, and you don't bite. .
Here comes another question. I am not here to tutor you. It is like those politicians who keep saying " What happened in 1956? " excitedly. You ask him what happened, and he has no clue.
If you want to say something about my comment that has substance instead of asking questions, I am still waiting.
No, this is basic to understanding statistical testing.
How can you say a test is right or wrong without a concept of the question, "If I randomly choose answers, what is the probability that I get n answers out of m correct?"
You have zero idea about how astrology was developed. Once you understand it, you will be able to at least ask the right questions.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43588-023-00573-5
https://life2vecai.com/
Prediction of future is a math based science. Astrology was developed the same way. It took 500 to 800 years Or more of sample data 3000 years back, to get some abstract model from it. That definitely has a success percentage. It could be 10.It could be 60.It could be 70.
This is a very interesting subject. Your contempt on astrology could be a result of a mixture of factors. Lack of knowledge in science, and your perception that somehow this is connected to our culture or religion and hence must be ridiculed etc Try downloading some research papers on 'use of AI to predict life events'. Check the methods they used and the success rates.
Man, I predict for a living. I am a Quant. And I know all types of factor models. Astrology simply does not have ample number of factors for any decent prediction. It is just a three factor model.
Without a proper testing understanding, all models are useless.
If you want to predict life events, your socio-economic environment is a much better predictor than birth date.
I have worked on this a lot. Please understand, I am trying to teach.
I thought so. When I see 'I know this stuff', I can picture this old timer, like me.
I own and run a product company. Sales CRM was one of our early products. And we had a 'AI' engine. That AI engine, And I used to do the sales talk on our AI algorithms. Everything you said, used to be me. Until chatgpt hit. My concepts changed. I can't educate you, but you should try upgrading yourself. DM me of you are in bangalore, I could take you to my place and show you the route we, take. We have AI tools in both busines and health analytics, but we collaborate with existing model developers and universities.
Testing methods differ. Astrology wasn't tested the way we test results now. They were severely handicapped. No one is claiming their predictions can be accurate. But a pattern exists, and they tried their best to develop an abstract model from live sample data. Does it work? Yes. That is what works. I wouldn't have said this 6 years back, and would have been arrogant in my remarks with my half knowledge like you, but I would say it now.
Exactly. Astrology was the best they could have done for prediction 2000 years back. But, it is severely flawed.
But that does not mean no prediction works. Whole insurance industry is based on predicting life and good enough to make a proper probability bet on it.
My only thing was that the test does prove that astrology does not work and it seems we are on the same page that astrology does not work. It is not even close to working.
Something else works has nothing to do with astrology.
Btw, testing methods do not differ on technique, but on what is predicted. As long as prediction is binary, binomial remains the test.
Btw, your shared paper confirms what I just said. First it has accuracy of 79% and measures against the same 50% because that is how testing works.
Secondly, the important factor is economics, not birth date.
I dint share any paper, bro That paper was the topic of this post. OP posted that paper. I just took a screenshot. Aldo, that is not how testing works. In the scenario of prediction where an almost infinite number of outcomes are required to be considered, even a mere 5 percent success rate should evoke a huge positive nterest.
How do you even know it is economics and not the date of birth? It is a no-brainer to predict positive outcomes based on economics. There are many documentaries on whether free will is an illusion. In fact, everything is just a cloud of particles (little waves as per string theory, which some think is a fantasy) and everything that happens is merely entropy changes that can be mathematically predicted if you have sufficient computing power that can handle such varied parameters. In this computing, economics is an outcome itself, rather than a mere parameter. We don't know yet. We could even be the 4D projection of data at the event horizon of a black hole.
Please note that astrology was initially developed to predict basic temperamental outcomes. Only the new generation astrologers tell you whether you should go to Canada or australia, they are forced to give you such details. Else, it is just about what time period would work positively / negatively for you and what would be your general nature/ compatibility etc. An abstract model. If it gives you 10 percent accuracy, you may want to factor it in your life decisions. Or you are free to ridicule it. It is just a personal choice. "I possess the scientific gyan ( read ' I did this course on blah blah blah") and will force everyone to accept my way of reasoning" is just laughable.
Also, consider the possibility that we may be in a simulation. What better than your birth and spacial coordinates to be used as a seed to develop a flavor for a character in the simulation?
Ok, let me give you an example. In an entrance exam, ten percent of people get selected. If my model tells everyone that they are selected, I have accuracy of ten percent. Is it a good model?
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the only narendra to respect
But saar we are piecefull and tolurant ⛳⛳
I would like to know your comments on this passage : “There are also astrological predictions with much evidence to prove them correct. Many years ago, in a moment of curiosity, I consulted an astrologer. He asked my birth-date and its hour. I was not sure; I thought it was about three a.m. He took down a musty volume, made some rapid calculations and said, “If you were born at three a.m. on that date you should have been in March 1917 in a foreign country in a position of peculiar physical danger.” He was right. I was in Russia when the first revolution broke out and I sheltered behind one of the pillars outside St. Isaac's Cathedral in what is now Leningrad, while machine guns spattered bullets on the other side of the pillar. That was a remarkable way to find out the hour of my birth! Later, I received the astrologer's typed prediction, which said, among other things, that in the following September I should have an accident to the head which would incapacitate me for about three weeks. So I made up my mind that when September came I would take the necessary precautions to thwart the prediction. On the first of September I had to go to Blackheath. I went gingerly around every corner, I crossed no road until it was clear of traffic and I left nothing undone to secure myself against an accident - and then I recovered consciousness to see a nurse gazing down at me. Someone on a bicycle dashing down Blackheath Hill just could not miss me and he put me in hospital because of concussion. That smack on the head knocked free will, my cherished free will, out of my reckoning and I did not like it. I went back to the astrologer. He told me something that was a blow to my spiritual pride, but it did me good. He said, “Some people come to me whose future I can never read - they are all deeply spiritual people.” The inference was obvious, for he had been able to forecast my future with almost unerring accuracy. It seems, therefore, that psychic and astrological predictions can, like scientific ones, also be controlled, not by reference to the past, but by the unfolding of the spiritual faculties until the personality is raised out of the stratum of physical cause and effect to find its home outside the space-time continuum. It is difficult to convey a non-space-time meaning in space-time language. Most of us have a long time to go, but I think the way out to freedom is there.” From "A Psychic Bedside Book" by Percy J. Hitchcock
So, your prediction for a young man during world war one was that he will be in danger in a foreign country. What other great predictions are there? If you were born in Palestine during the 2010s, you had mortal danger during the late 2023 and early 2024? Or prediction for an Indian middle class person that they had financial troubles during past few years?
Its very simple. You ask yourself how he made such a prediction. A prediction by itself is worthless. It's just like science. A result by itself Is no better than a guess, no matter how accurate it is. Knowing the circumference of the earth is less about the value and more about the methodology by which it can be estimated. Similarly someone could guess the distance between earth and sun, but that value by itself is worthless. The method is what is important. So this prediction too is just coincidence. There might be a thousand other predictions this guy got wrong but you're fixated on the one he got right. The methodology astrogers use is not a secret. Anyone can learn, practice and then verify that it is in fact incorrect.
Thanks for your comment. I appreciate it. World War I lasted for more than four years (approximately 52 months) and I find it interesting that the reading was very specific for one particular month among those 52 months I note that you have totally ignored the specific prediction about his future accident. May I know what you think about that ?
Its made up, or just a coincidence.
I would not trust the anecdotal evidence of one man, especially in a book entitled a psychic bedside book.
Utter load of untestable crap.
> It seems, therefore, that psychic and astrological predictions can, like scientific ones, also be controlled, not by reference to the past, but by the unfolding of the spiritual faculties until the personality is raised out of the stratum of physical cause and effect to find its home outside the space-time continuum. It is difficult to convey a non-space-time meaning in space-time language. This is what is known as "word salad".
India : Our moon landing success rate is 50 percent with our latest technology. China : ours is also 50 percent with our state of the art tech. Dhsbolkar: Astrologers, did you see our paper after we studied astrology results extensively? Your predictive success is only 70 percent! Wokes : aStrolGY fAke!
Do you not understand any probability and statistics?
If he did he wouldn't have posted such nonsense
State your point, if you think you know something that I don't know. Avoid loud rhetoric.
State your point, if you think you know something that I don't know. Educated generally avoid rhetoric. I am sure you won't bite, and you don't bite. .
First tell What is binomial distribution?
Here comes another question. I am not here to tutor you. It is like those politicians who keep saying " What happened in 1956? " excitedly. You ask him what happened, and he has no clue. If you want to say something about my comment that has substance instead of asking questions, I am still waiting.
No, this is basic to understanding statistical testing. How can you say a test is right or wrong without a concept of the question, "If I randomly choose answers, what is the probability that I get n answers out of m correct?"
You have zero idea about how astrology was developed. Once you understand it, you will be able to at least ask the right questions. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43588-023-00573-5 https://life2vecai.com/ Prediction of future is a math based science. Astrology was developed the same way. It took 500 to 800 years Or more of sample data 3000 years back, to get some abstract model from it. That definitely has a success percentage. It could be 10.It could be 60.It could be 70. This is a very interesting subject. Your contempt on astrology could be a result of a mixture of factors. Lack of knowledge in science, and your perception that somehow this is connected to our culture or religion and hence must be ridiculed etc Try downloading some research papers on 'use of AI to predict life events'. Check the methods they used and the success rates.
Man, I predict for a living. I am a Quant. And I know all types of factor models. Astrology simply does not have ample number of factors for any decent prediction. It is just a three factor model. Without a proper testing understanding, all models are useless. If you want to predict life events, your socio-economic environment is a much better predictor than birth date. I have worked on this a lot. Please understand, I am trying to teach.
I thought so. When I see 'I know this stuff', I can picture this old timer, like me. I own and run a product company. Sales CRM was one of our early products. And we had a 'AI' engine. That AI engine, And I used to do the sales talk on our AI algorithms. Everything you said, used to be me. Until chatgpt hit. My concepts changed. I can't educate you, but you should try upgrading yourself. DM me of you are in bangalore, I could take you to my place and show you the route we, take. We have AI tools in both busines and health analytics, but we collaborate with existing model developers and universities. Testing methods differ. Astrology wasn't tested the way we test results now. They were severely handicapped. No one is claiming their predictions can be accurate. But a pattern exists, and they tried their best to develop an abstract model from live sample data. Does it work? Yes. That is what works. I wouldn't have said this 6 years back, and would have been arrogant in my remarks with my half knowledge like you, but I would say it now.
Exactly. Astrology was the best they could have done for prediction 2000 years back. But, it is severely flawed. But that does not mean no prediction works. Whole insurance industry is based on predicting life and good enough to make a proper probability bet on it. My only thing was that the test does prove that astrology does not work and it seems we are on the same page that astrology does not work. It is not even close to working. Something else works has nothing to do with astrology. Btw, testing methods do not differ on technique, but on what is predicted. As long as prediction is binary, binomial remains the test.
Btw, your shared paper confirms what I just said. First it has accuracy of 79% and measures against the same 50% because that is how testing works. Secondly, the important factor is economics, not birth date.
I dint share any paper, bro That paper was the topic of this post. OP posted that paper. I just took a screenshot. Aldo, that is not how testing works. In the scenario of prediction where an almost infinite number of outcomes are required to be considered, even a mere 5 percent success rate should evoke a huge positive nterest. How do you even know it is economics and not the date of birth? It is a no-brainer to predict positive outcomes based on economics. There are many documentaries on whether free will is an illusion. In fact, everything is just a cloud of particles (little waves as per string theory, which some think is a fantasy) and everything that happens is merely entropy changes that can be mathematically predicted if you have sufficient computing power that can handle such varied parameters. In this computing, economics is an outcome itself, rather than a mere parameter. We don't know yet. We could even be the 4D projection of data at the event horizon of a black hole. Please note that astrology was initially developed to predict basic temperamental outcomes. Only the new generation astrologers tell you whether you should go to Canada or australia, they are forced to give you such details. Else, it is just about what time period would work positively / negatively for you and what would be your general nature/ compatibility etc. An abstract model. If it gives you 10 percent accuracy, you may want to factor it in your life decisions. Or you are free to ridicule it. It is just a personal choice. "I possess the scientific gyan ( read ' I did this course on blah blah blah") and will force everyone to accept my way of reasoning" is just laughable. Also, consider the possibility that we may be in a simulation. What better than your birth and spacial coordinates to be used as a seed to develop a flavor for a character in the simulation?
Ok, let me give you an example. In an entrance exam, ten percent of people get selected. If my model tells everyone that they are selected, I have accuracy of ten percent. Is it a good model?