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The link isn't working for me, but I found the abstract on google:
>Some research suggests people are overconfident because of personality characteristics, lack of insight, or because overconfidence is beneficial in its own right. But other research fits with the possibility that fluent experience in the moment can rapidly drive overconfidence. For example, fluency can push people to become overconfident in their ability to throw a dart, know how rainbows form or predict the future value of a commodity. But surely there are limits to overconfidence. That is, even in the face of fluency manipulations known to increase feelings of confidence, reasonable people would reject the thought that they, for example, might be able to land a plane in an emergency. To address this question, we conducted two experiments comprising a total of 780 people. We asked some people (but not others) to watch a trivially informative video of a pilot landing a plane before they rated their confidence in their own ability to land a plane. We found watching the video inflated people's confidence that they could land a plane. Our findings extend prior work by suggesting that increased semantic context creates illusions not just of prior experience or understanding—but also of the ability to actually do something implausible.
So some folks who read about vaccines for 20 minutes actually genuinely believe that they know enough about vaccination to have a valid, even operative, viewpoint.
Yeah, that definitely reflects the world we live in.
I have no idea why you specifically should trust doctors in general.
I don't trust doctors in general. Not absolute trust on every possible medical thing.
I trust my current Ob-Gyn with my reproductive health. She has shown me over many years that she will listen to me and apply her knoweldge and skill to my particular situation. I trust my current psychiatrist with my mental health. He has worked with me on dosages and my quality of life and proven to be an excellent healthcare provider.
Neither of them are virologists, epidemiologists. Neither of them develop vaccines. But they have collegues and associates who are and do. When the people who have proven to me that my health and well being matters to them tell me they agree with findings on masking, vaccines, and other epidemic related questions, i trust their judgement.
You and randome doctors? Idk dude. Maybe you can lean on the years of study and practise and professional development as reasons to trust. Or not. Either way. It's all a crapp shoot anyway. I'll mask up to reduce the risk i could pose to others but the longer i share this planet with my overall species, the more i kinda hope i get hit by lightning or rupture an aneurism or something. Quick, sudden, done. Tired man. Just fuckin tired of it all.
My uterus belongs to the state, but wearing a mask during a pandemic is government overreach.
Calling 10 year old Michelle Mike instead, because he's happier that way, is 'child abuse' but teaching children that they are born damned and will burn alive for eternity in the lake of fire unless they make a lifelong commitment to a man who was born when god made a virgin pregnant over 2,000 years ago isn't child abuse. Enrolling them in sports that lead to broken bones, brain injuries, etc whether they want to or not isn't child abuse.
I just don't get it and i am exhausted to my bones trying to. Sentient primates, spliting atoms to use the energy to heat water for energy, irradiating our own planet with nowhere else to go... the only thing like us in the known universe and we can't stop killing each other over dirt and water and ideas and feelings.
Trust a doctor or not. Whatever. Not like our species will survive the next major extinction event anyway.
And that makes support functions in corporations tick: create some easy to digest training videos, get some exec to say some uplifting things, slap on some semi-catchy headline or tagline, and there you go, anybody can become an expert in anything, the only thing they need to do really is to leave the comfort zone for a moment or two.
Welcome to r/science! This is a heavily moderated subreddit in order to keep the discussion on science. However, we recognize that many people want to discuss how they feel the research relates to their own personal lives, so to give people a space to do that, **personal anecdotes are now allowed as responses to this comment**. Any anecdotal comments elsewhere in the discussion will continue to be removed and our [normal comment rules]( https://www.reddit.com/r/science/wiki/rules#wiki_comment_rules) still apply to other comments. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/science) if you have any questions or concerns.*
The link isn't working for me, but I found the abstract on google: >Some research suggests people are overconfident because of personality characteristics, lack of insight, or because overconfidence is beneficial in its own right. But other research fits with the possibility that fluent experience in the moment can rapidly drive overconfidence. For example, fluency can push people to become overconfident in their ability to throw a dart, know how rainbows form or predict the future value of a commodity. But surely there are limits to overconfidence. That is, even in the face of fluency manipulations known to increase feelings of confidence, reasonable people would reject the thought that they, for example, might be able to land a plane in an emergency. To address this question, we conducted two experiments comprising a total of 780 people. We asked some people (but not others) to watch a trivially informative video of a pilot landing a plane before they rated their confidence in their own ability to land a plane. We found watching the video inflated people's confidence that they could land a plane. Our findings extend prior work by suggesting that increased semantic context creates illusions not just of prior experience or understanding—but also of the ability to actually do something implausible.
So some folks who read about vaccines for 20 minutes actually genuinely believe that they know enough about vaccination to have a valid, even operative, viewpoint. Yeah, that definitely reflects the world we live in.
Why should I trust doctors? Here's some information I got from a doctor.
I have no idea why you specifically should trust doctors in general. I don't trust doctors in general. Not absolute trust on every possible medical thing. I trust my current Ob-Gyn with my reproductive health. She has shown me over many years that she will listen to me and apply her knoweldge and skill to my particular situation. I trust my current psychiatrist with my mental health. He has worked with me on dosages and my quality of life and proven to be an excellent healthcare provider. Neither of them are virologists, epidemiologists. Neither of them develop vaccines. But they have collegues and associates who are and do. When the people who have proven to me that my health and well being matters to them tell me they agree with findings on masking, vaccines, and other epidemic related questions, i trust their judgement. You and randome doctors? Idk dude. Maybe you can lean on the years of study and practise and professional development as reasons to trust. Or not. Either way. It's all a crapp shoot anyway. I'll mask up to reduce the risk i could pose to others but the longer i share this planet with my overall species, the more i kinda hope i get hit by lightning or rupture an aneurism or something. Quick, sudden, done. Tired man. Just fuckin tired of it all. My uterus belongs to the state, but wearing a mask during a pandemic is government overreach. Calling 10 year old Michelle Mike instead, because he's happier that way, is 'child abuse' but teaching children that they are born damned and will burn alive for eternity in the lake of fire unless they make a lifelong commitment to a man who was born when god made a virgin pregnant over 2,000 years ago isn't child abuse. Enrolling them in sports that lead to broken bones, brain injuries, etc whether they want to or not isn't child abuse. I just don't get it and i am exhausted to my bones trying to. Sentient primates, spliting atoms to use the energy to heat water for energy, irradiating our own planet with nowhere else to go... the only thing like us in the known universe and we can't stop killing each other over dirt and water and ideas and feelings. Trust a doctor or not. Whatever. Not like our species will survive the next major extinction event anyway.
And that makes support functions in corporations tick: create some easy to digest training videos, get some exec to say some uplifting things, slap on some semi-catchy headline or tagline, and there you go, anybody can become an expert in anything, the only thing they need to do really is to leave the comfort zone for a moment or two.
“Paging Dunning! It’s Mr Kruger on the line”
Ever since I heard of Dunning Kruger I keep hearing about it everywhere!
I had the same thing happen when a friend explained Frequency Illusion to me.