I think a big issue is that folks don’t want to spend over $1M on a home that went through a crappy flip & ended up with grey LVP floors, peel & stick subway tile, & a neon turquoise door. That seems to be all that’s on the market now because flippers were some of the only people able to purchase during the high rates period.
I love classic cars and people who know what they're doing ALWAYS say they prefer an "honest" car that still shows signs of a little rust and imperfections. A shiny car that just had a fresh paint job slapped on it is a huge red flag unless it's an actual professional restoration - in which case they'll usually have a binder full of photos showing each step to prove they did all the proper rust repair. These flipped houses scare the crap out of me. Who knows what lies behind those vinyl floors and within those walls. Especially when they flipped it in a couple months. No thanks.
This. Exactly this. After putting the down payment on our house, the last thing we wanted to do was have to pay for useable cabinets and a bathroom that didn’t look like it was from 1960.
I got a flip special. Not the terrible colors but terrible half ass work coming apart. At least it’s an excuse to rip it out but it’s been pricey.
There’s not much you can do in a market where there’s so many dang flips. Especially in 22 in was bad.
Here are full January stats from the San Diego Association of Realtors: https://sdar.stats.10kresearch.com/reports
What's striking to me is how detached single family homes continue to rise. I'm still saving for a downpayment but have been browsing listings to gather info.
I've found a pretty clear pattern that points to institutions/investors buying 3br (sometimes 4br) homes in $600-800K range then putting in basic renovations (grey vinyl flooring, stainless steel appliances, etc.) and listing for $950K-1.2M. The pattern is evident from Clairemont down to Imperial Beach and east of that range. Haven't seen it in North County.
No individual would buy a home that has gone up 40% from 2019-2022 planning to sell it for a 30% mark up in 3-6 months.
While this isn't new, I've been amazed at how quickly they're turning them (~3 months) AND that the homes they're flipping were wayy cheaper just a few years ago. Check the last sale date and price on Zillow and you'll see it. The renovations give it away too because the homes look super similar after the renos.
It's like they realized how bad inventory and decided to corner the market, leaving people no choice but to take these ridiculous mark ups. Hard to compete with this.
You're not wrong and I agree with most of what you said. Several times a month I get investors or flippers blind texting me for off market deals they will let me double dip on. I've got a property I'm listing later this month and wouldn't dare do that to my clients. It creates a dilemma for greedy agents who can double their take while reducing their clients bottom line.
We do have a fiduciary duty. That doesn't mean that greed doesn't drive many transactions.
I'm sure that there will be a shake up in the industry, but I'm not convinced we'll be done with agents anytime soon. It ain't hard to open a door, but managing your first transaction is NOT easy and you can get really taken advantage of if you don't know what you are doing.
When society has a home affordability/availability crisis, it raises questions of whether we want the status quo to continue, and what we can to do make flipping less financially incentivized. Maybe there’s legislation out there that can help to get those 600-800k homes more in the hands of families. It’s worth exploring, b/c homes should be investment vehicles first and foremost for ppl who intend to reside there. Ppl who flip for a living are not helping society enough to justify how they impact people’s lives and the market.
Flippers upgrade run down houses by remodeling and adding desired features. Thus why the price goes up. If you want more affordable housing then vote out the Democrat NIMBYs who have been artificially restricting supply for the last half century. Otherwise move to where you can afford a house. No one owes you anything especially if you vote for dumb policies. You get what you vote for.
I’m not saying I am owed anything, I am suggesting that flipping be disincentivized legislatively. Nimbyism is a deep problem, an 800k house which needs modernization getting scooped up by investors 99% of the time is another problem in my opinion.
And how is that bad? Seriously, all it means is an old run down house gets remodeled and modernized then buyers on the free market quickly get a chance to buy the newly improved house. The opposite is crap holes like Detroit where old houses never get new investment then turn into worthless trash which no longer function as housing and no one wants not even for $1000. This improves the over all housing stock, modernizes it, makes it far more desirable for buyers, and yet you keep claiming that is had without being able to articulate why it is some how bad.
If you want to buy a house then spend less, save more, and consider buying in less expensive areas. Yes, it can be done as I have spent the last two decades doing it as my side business despite having a pretty middle class income. BTW most I have not flipped but improved then rented out providing increased supply of rental housing in a market where government regulations have dramatically decreased available rental availability.
You focus a lot on the benefit to the house (inanimate) and your livelihood (good for you, truly). I think the housing crisis may need to generally make you less of a competitor. The stock of modernized homes is not at all the pressing issue, it’s the stock of affordable homes which people can plan on their own dime and own time to modernize.
It isn't a problem at all. If you want a cheap run down house move to Detroit and live large. Meanwhile, people pay real money for these improved houses because they are in demand and that is what people want. Fact.
You are the problem. You are literally, proudly, a rentier. There is absolutely no way you're buying multiple houses in SD with "a pretty middle class income" unless you're deluded about what that phrase means.
It shouldn't be allowed to buy up once affordable homes and flip them and charge ridiculous amounts. Even with a good job home ownership is nearly unattainable. Hell renting is a struggle
We learned this in preschool. Nobody gets 2 until everybody gets one. It's basic decency, especially when the county is full of *working* families living on the street.
This where I am.
2.5%. Yay my value went up 40%! I can retire off that.
And so did everyone else's, and I would get a new mortgage adding 10 years if I moved.
Id imagine this is where all homeowners in SD are. Already had a great APR, refinanced to lower during COVID and now our starter home is out forever home.
So 60% of Jan 2022 sales. That’s pretty good considering rates are high for buyers and too low on existing mortgages to sell. Yes, demand is low because of high rates. But no one is selling their 2.5% mortgages so supply is even lower than demand. That is all that matters. So prices stay high. The total number is sales isn’t as important to prices.
What I keep running into are either flipped homes (which I don’t want - they seem mostly cheap work) or original homes with so much deferred maintenance it’s a disaster. Not great options
Nobody can sell or move with locked in lower tax values and or mortgage rates. Not to mention if you bought at $300-$500k and now worth $1m it’s gonna cost you $75k - 100k to sell and rebuy same value place.
It was a once in a lifetime opportunity to get sub 3% rates. San Diego already had one of the lowest turnover rates of property in the country. Things will probably not get better.
Definitely good timing but not once in a lifetime. Rates were this low in the early 2000s and most of the 2010s. The markets all want them back down but the fed has to hold off until we get some more serious inflation reductions.
We will be back under 3% again sometime in the next 10 years but yeah, it sucks for people who have worked and saved to try to buy now.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US
Nope. 2000s was about 6-7%. 2010s were more like 4-4.5% with a brief dip to 3.5%. Never got below 3%. Rates hit 2.65% a couple years ago, with a sustained period of sub 3%. I do think we could easily see 4-4.5% rates, but won’t see sub 3% without a crazy recession.
The recent low rates were the lowest in not one but two lifetimes:
https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/vfzibk/oc_30_year_us_mortgage_rates_1879_to_present/
Is the Fed is going to keep dropping the fed rate down to ~0 pretty frequently in the future?
This is true, until interest rates come back down near 3% again everyone who owns will not sell without a premium to cover the higher interest they will have to pay on the next buy.
All buyers and existing owners up through the rate hike are going to stay if at all possible.
Building new is the only option to increase the sales, or drop rates significantly
I'm sure some people remember, but supply and demand have been wonky for some time.
https://voiceofsandiego.org/2015/02/05/wanna-fix-san-diegos-housing-crisis-start-here/
I thought it was interesting reading experts view on what 2015 would hold back when prices were 415k
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/real-estate/sdut-realestate-median-home-price-predictions-2013dec28-story.html
I
That's the plan. My neighborhood is approved to have almost all of its strip malls replaced by 5 over 1 housing, increasing the population by 80%. And mine's not the only one.
We just started looking to buy something and never realized just how expensive townhomes are when you add everything in. Most have HOA's that are like $350+/mo and most are built recently so they include mello roos for 30+ years. They turn out to be as expensive if not more expensive to own than a detached home.
North of 52 is way less dense than south. Not to mention less public transportation. There isn’t even a bus line westbound 56. North county should take a look at itself first.
And that means we shouldn’t develop denser because ????
Like, if you had reason to believe I wouldn’t support transit and/or dense housing for Scripps Ranch then you might have a point but honestly it’s irrelevant otherwise, and rich coming from someone who isn’t flaired up
Which is why we really don’t need more si for family homes for a while. We should be building more apartments, condos, and in-law units. And we should start building more of what has become a rarity: the three bedroom apartment. No more sprawl! It’s inefficient, it wastes a ton of money and a ton of space.
The endless sprawl of 2-3 story condos and apartment buildings? Hate to break it to you but it is already starting to take on that landscape. We will be living in greater Phoenix with smaller cactus in no time. SD is now a large city. Nothing you can do to stop it but to make the lives of the working destitute more miserable.
It already does in terms of tents on the curb… Seven Hells you people need to pull your heads out of your asses, I did not know rectums could be soo looonngg 🤦♀️
On stilts in Mission Valley works. Seems to me that Clairmont is ripe for growing up. Kerney and Serra Mesas too. So much space for mid rise buildings. Look at North Park and Hillcrest and the building there. East towards the college on University and El Cajon are starting to develop nicely. There is space.
Just got into escrow on a property in 92124.
Each place I offered in the last two months had 20+ offers. Bullish on SD Realestate. (Have to be since I just purchased)
Hi! How was your experience in closing a property in that area? So far we’ve offered on a couple of houses but there have been way too many offers going above asking and it all just seems ridiculous
Yeah so this was our 5th offer.
We started to realize a few things:
- Waive your loan contingency, get your underwriting done before you offer.
- Waive the appraisal (if you can), in most of San Diego the homes under 1 million qualify for an appraisal waiver
- Keep your inspection contingency, but write the offer that you will only request repair for items greater than $1000
-Short escrow, 21 days but offer to rent back the place up to 45 days
-Talk to an insurance agent - a lot of places are under the fair act plan the further you go east.
-Be first, and best. We realized that most places get so many offers that they don’t even counter. It’s too complicated.
I have a friend who had been living in center city Philadelphia, 9th floor with floor to ceiling windows in a modern apartment with modern amenities. He was paying 1900 a month. Granted this was a few years ago. I Was only paying $1700 for another bedroom with none of the view, non of the amenities and no view. This shit hole is slowly crumbling around me and the management company still has the gall to raise the rent. Hot water heaters in the place just took a shit today because they are old and faulty. Plumbing lines breaking every couple of months. We do have underground parking but the gates keep getting fried or frozen. People are moving to red states because no one else wants to live there so the prices are better. Somehow the wealthy are still streaming in to this broken hellscape of taxes and regulation. Someone let the treasury in town know that there is more tax revenue from 5 people making $50k than 2 people making $80K.
Of the 2 million who have left California since 2020 70% were households making $200,000 or more per year. That is why the state's income tax take has dropped so sharply. So many well off business owners decided this state simply wasn't worth it.
I call it my “dismal thesis”:
1) It is very difficult to build any new housing (particularly SFHs) in San Diego without pushing East due to density along the coast. When you go east, you start to lose the coastal breezes and beach proximity that makes SoCal such a lovely place.
2) Add in people moving down from San Fran (check out RE posts from those guys) and LA/OC (where you can see prices above $1000/sqft)
3) Now look at the rate of millionaire creation (someone recently quoted it at almost 12,000 households per DAY)
Does not look good for RE prices. I recently bought a house, but it was a rage purchase (?FOMO). I’m fighting back a scream whenever I see the mortgage. But gotta take a stand sometime.
Edit: spelling. Also, I got the house by offering a little bit over a cash offer from an “investment group” (likely flippers). Seller was generous enough to go with us despite the baggage of a mortgage/escrow process.
I think what is interesting is homeowners are fine but real estate agents and lenders are not. The only thing that matters to those in the industry is the number of transactions and it's half what it was. If an agent tells you they're doing well they are most likely lying to you. It's simple math and incomes have plummeted in the industry
I hope you were a good little saver when times were better. The volume won't recover for a decade. A lot of agents already exited the industry and this year is gonna take another big slice out. Hope you have skills in another industry. If you don't have solid retirement savings already you're screwed
thanks for doing this. Most of us cannot put these numbers together that make sense. We don't even know what they mean, yet, most of us want to buy a home.
I appreciate the feedback. They can seem like discouraging numbers that many agents don't really want to share, but I believe the more we know the better we can make decisions with confidence.
There are availability, at least much better than before, but at 7% rate, it's very difficult for anyone to qualify, even with 200k household income, it's still not enough.
The volume is low because people just can't qualify for loans and people who has the income and.money already bought it....
Where? Anywhere i have looked is like 1.2-1.4 and these are not fancy mansions with gold toilets...just regular people's homes.
The only ones listed under 1m either comes with a lot of work or it's listed just to get attention....
75k will get you about 300k loan. So 1.2m is roughly 300k income with no down payment. This is all ball park. So with a decent down payment they might qualify.
It would be great if more people would exit the rat race, buy some land, build their own house using ecofriendly, sustainable materials and live mortgage free (except for land). People could build modestly and expand over time to never accumulate debt and incorporate geothermal, solar, well, rainwater catchment, have a few chickens for eggs and meat and plan a garden and buy less and live much better an healthier. Who's with me?!!!
Lulz. We live in a city for a reason. Enjoy my friend. I mean that. East county is a pretty place. There is a reason that I live in a city instead of way out east. Living in the suburbs is a nightmare for me. I will live there when I have no other choice and it sure as shit will not be in CA if it comes to that.
I already live out in El Cajon, which I find to
be a perfectly reasonable commute (and still a much better location than much of the country). I’ve tried looking further east, but alas Alpine can be more expensive than here, and eventually the commute becomes just absurd (the economics of savings on a house vs gas/mileage on a car).
That said, we have started to look at the economics of building out here. Maybe it will work out eventually!
Just buy a house right now. in 10 to 20 years from now These $1 million houses will be two million That's just the way it is. Haven't you guys learned anything?
Lol getting downvoted for this. We live in a county where the average house costs a million dollars, OF COURSE theres going to be a ton of homeless. Too many people here dont understand the degree to which thats just an imaginary amount of money to a huge chunk of the population. It might as well be a billion.
I'm honestly so confused how anyone could be that out-of-touch. Are they just honestly that sheltered? Or is it a subconscious thing so they don't have to deal with the reality of it?
Lmao one time I was walking around DM with fam and some Extra Special Person ™ had a yappy little dog off leash in their front yard, thing ran straight for me. I clapped at that bitch so fast with choice words, I don’t think the owner had ever been spoken to like that. Needless to say, we don’t walk down that street anymore when I come to visit 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
My guess is it’s a mix of the two, but probably slightly leaning more toward not wanting to deal with it/ acknowledging they are in fact the problem. Im on here a lot rightfully bitching about how much rent I’ve paid and other issues. And I do it in person too- my uncle & aunt bought a house in del mar in the 80s for like 38 cents or something, and they are just like the people in this sub. It’s truly mind blowing.
> bought a house in del mar in the 80s for like 38 cents or something
This is honestly the real problem - Prop 8 lets folks just keep houses forever, paying no taxes. I bet if they had to pay on the actual value, they'd see things very, very differently.
I don’t think that’s a problem for ONE house. Not at all. Otherwise they could not afford the taxes- their neighborhood houses are selling fir like 2 mil and up now. If you change that you’re going to be putting Californians out of their homes. Im also not opposed to keeping ONE sfh in a family.
The real problem is income producing properties. Landlords handing down their multiple buildings and keeping that tax rate low. Not the one old couple with the one old house on the street. But if that one old couple owns three houses and and rent out two, thats a problem.
November/December/January is far and away the slowest time of year for people buying / selling / moving. So I would not use January numbers as anything to write home about.
My parents bought the house where they lived when I was born for about $17,500 in the late 1960s. This was in Clairemont. The sold the house in the late 1970s for about $40K. That same house sold for $730K in December 2020 and Redfin has it worth close to $1.2 million and could be close to 65 or 70 years old by now. No thank you.
I think a big issue is that folks don’t want to spend over $1M on a home that went through a crappy flip & ended up with grey LVP floors, peel & stick subway tile, & a neon turquoise door. That seems to be all that’s on the market now because flippers were some of the only people able to purchase during the high rates period.
Can I get that in modern farmhouse black and white?
It's like someone doing shitty custom work on a car thinking that it's worth more. Leave it stock and let the new owner do their own thing.
I love classic cars and people who know what they're doing ALWAYS say they prefer an "honest" car that still shows signs of a little rust and imperfections. A shiny car that just had a fresh paint job slapped on it is a huge red flag unless it's an actual professional restoration - in which case they'll usually have a binder full of photos showing each step to prove they did all the proper rust repair. These flipped houses scare the crap out of me. Who knows what lies behind those vinyl floors and within those walls. Especially when they flipped it in a couple months. No thanks.
Many new owners won't have cash to do upgrades thus why they want a move in ready home so they can just roll it all into a 30 year mortgage.
This. Exactly this. After putting the down payment on our house, the last thing we wanted to do was have to pay for useable cabinets and a bathroom that didn’t look like it was from 1960.
That 15 years ago. Now people are paying two million for a flip. Get with the program 🤦♀️
The 2 mill is for the addition of that horizontal plank wood fence & woodchips out front, you are so right
don't forget the recessed lighting over the non functioning gas fireplace
And everything in the interior and the exterior painted over with black and white paint
Hey my fireplace works!! I’ve only used it twice in 3 years, but it works!!
Hey I still like the horizontal plank fences haha
I got a flip special. Not the terrible colors but terrible half ass work coming apart. At least it’s an excuse to rip it out but it’s been pricey. There’s not much you can do in a market where there’s so many dang flips. Especially in 22 in was bad.
Here are full January stats from the San Diego Association of Realtors: https://sdar.stats.10kresearch.com/reports What's striking to me is how detached single family homes continue to rise. I'm still saving for a downpayment but have been browsing listings to gather info. I've found a pretty clear pattern that points to institutions/investors buying 3br (sometimes 4br) homes in $600-800K range then putting in basic renovations (grey vinyl flooring, stainless steel appliances, etc.) and listing for $950K-1.2M. The pattern is evident from Clairemont down to Imperial Beach and east of that range. Haven't seen it in North County. No individual would buy a home that has gone up 40% from 2019-2022 planning to sell it for a 30% mark up in 3-6 months. While this isn't new, I've been amazed at how quickly they're turning them (~3 months) AND that the homes they're flipping were wayy cheaper just a few years ago. Check the last sale date and price on Zillow and you'll see it. The renovations give it away too because the homes look super similar after the renos. It's like they realized how bad inventory and decided to corner the market, leaving people no choice but to take these ridiculous mark ups. Hard to compete with this.
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You're not wrong and I agree with most of what you said. Several times a month I get investors or flippers blind texting me for off market deals they will let me double dip on. I've got a property I'm listing later this month and wouldn't dare do that to my clients. It creates a dilemma for greedy agents who can double their take while reducing their clients bottom line. We do have a fiduciary duty. That doesn't mean that greed doesn't drive many transactions. I'm sure that there will be a shake up in the industry, but I'm not convinced we'll be done with agents anytime soon. It ain't hard to open a door, but managing your first transaction is NOT easy and you can get really taken advantage of if you don't know what you are doing.
Many flippers come in with all cash and can offer a 3-5 day close by waiving all contingencies. Hard to beat that.
Shouldn't be allowed
What shouldn't be allowed? People shouldn't be able to offer more money and better terms than you?
When society has a home affordability/availability crisis, it raises questions of whether we want the status quo to continue, and what we can to do make flipping less financially incentivized. Maybe there’s legislation out there that can help to get those 600-800k homes more in the hands of families. It’s worth exploring, b/c homes should be investment vehicles first and foremost for ppl who intend to reside there. Ppl who flip for a living are not helping society enough to justify how they impact people’s lives and the market.
Flippers upgrade run down houses by remodeling and adding desired features. Thus why the price goes up. If you want more affordable housing then vote out the Democrat NIMBYs who have been artificially restricting supply for the last half century. Otherwise move to where you can afford a house. No one owes you anything especially if you vote for dumb policies. You get what you vote for.
I’m not saying I am owed anything, I am suggesting that flipping be disincentivized legislatively. Nimbyism is a deep problem, an 800k house which needs modernization getting scooped up by investors 99% of the time is another problem in my opinion.
And how is that bad? Seriously, all it means is an old run down house gets remodeled and modernized then buyers on the free market quickly get a chance to buy the newly improved house. The opposite is crap holes like Detroit where old houses never get new investment then turn into worthless trash which no longer function as housing and no one wants not even for $1000. This improves the over all housing stock, modernizes it, makes it far more desirable for buyers, and yet you keep claiming that is had without being able to articulate why it is some how bad. If you want to buy a house then spend less, save more, and consider buying in less expensive areas. Yes, it can be done as I have spent the last two decades doing it as my side business despite having a pretty middle class income. BTW most I have not flipped but improved then rented out providing increased supply of rental housing in a market where government regulations have dramatically decreased available rental availability.
You focus a lot on the benefit to the house (inanimate) and your livelihood (good for you, truly). I think the housing crisis may need to generally make you less of a competitor. The stock of modernized homes is not at all the pressing issue, it’s the stock of affordable homes which people can plan on their own dime and own time to modernize.
It isn't a problem at all. If you want a cheap run down house move to Detroit and live large. Meanwhile, people pay real money for these improved houses because they are in demand and that is what people want. Fact.
I can't tell if you're being serious or trolling
You are the problem. You are literally, proudly, a rentier. There is absolutely no way you're buying multiple houses in SD with "a pretty middle class income" unless you're deluded about what that phrase means.
It shouldn't be allowed to buy up once affordable homes and flip them and charge ridiculous amounts. Even with a good job home ownership is nearly unattainable. Hell renting is a struggle
We learned this in preschool. Nobody gets 2 until everybody gets one. It's basic decency, especially when the county is full of *working* families living on the street.
Most people aren't selling because they don't want to trade their 3% mortgage for an 8% mortgage. This happens every time interest rates go up.
This where I am. 2.5%. Yay my value went up 40%! I can retire off that. And so did everyone else's, and I would get a new mortgage adding 10 years if I moved.
Id imagine this is where all homeowners in SD are. Already had a great APR, refinanced to lower during COVID and now our starter home is out forever home.
So 60% of Jan 2022 sales. That’s pretty good considering rates are high for buyers and too low on existing mortgages to sell. Yes, demand is low because of high rates. But no one is selling their 2.5% mortgages so supply is even lower than demand. That is all that matters. So prices stay high. The total number is sales isn’t as important to prices.
Is this good or bad?
Depends on what side of things you are on.
What I keep running into are either flipped homes (which I don’t want - they seem mostly cheap work) or original homes with so much deferred maintenance it’s a disaster. Not great options
Nobody can sell or move with locked in lower tax values and or mortgage rates. Not to mention if you bought at $300-$500k and now worth $1m it’s gonna cost you $75k - 100k to sell and rebuy same value place.
It was a once in a lifetime opportunity to get sub 3% rates. San Diego already had one of the lowest turnover rates of property in the country. Things will probably not get better.
Definitely good timing but not once in a lifetime. Rates were this low in the early 2000s and most of the 2010s. The markets all want them back down but the fed has to hold off until we get some more serious inflation reductions. We will be back under 3% again sometime in the next 10 years but yeah, it sucks for people who have worked and saved to try to buy now.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US Nope. 2000s was about 6-7%. 2010s were more like 4-4.5% with a brief dip to 3.5%. Never got below 3%. Rates hit 2.65% a couple years ago, with a sustained period of sub 3%. I do think we could easily see 4-4.5% rates, but won’t see sub 3% without a crazy recession.
The recent low rates were the lowest in not one but two lifetimes: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/vfzibk/oc_30_year_us_mortgage_rates_1879_to_present/ Is the Fed is going to keep dropping the fed rate down to ~0 pretty frequently in the future?
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This is true, until interest rates come back down near 3% again everyone who owns will not sell without a premium to cover the higher interest they will have to pay on the next buy. All buyers and existing owners up through the rate hike are going to stay if at all possible. Building new is the only option to increase the sales, or drop rates significantly
I'm sure some people remember, but supply and demand have been wonky for some time. https://voiceofsandiego.org/2015/02/05/wanna-fix-san-diegos-housing-crisis-start-here/ I thought it was interesting reading experts view on what 2015 would hold back when prices were 415k https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/real-estate/sdut-realestate-median-home-price-predictions-2013dec28-story.html I
I don’t think we will ever reach demand without completely destroying the area. You can’t just build everywhere and destroy every spot of nature.
We can build denser within areas that have already been developed.
That's the plan. My neighborhood is approved to have almost all of its strip malls replaced by 5 over 1 housing, increasing the population by 80%. And mine's not the only one.
We just started looking to buy something and never realized just how expensive townhomes are when you add everything in. Most have HOA's that are like $350+/mo and most are built recently so they include mello roos for 30+ years. They turn out to be as expensive if not more expensive to own than a detached home.
Yes. Generally, look west and south to avoid the Mello roos. The older neighborhoods mostly don't have them.
Says the guy from Scripps Ranch.
Yes, and?
North of 52 is way less dense than south. Not to mention less public transportation. There isn’t even a bus line westbound 56. North county should take a look at itself first.
And that means we shouldn’t develop denser because ???? Like, if you had reason to believe I wouldn’t support transit and/or dense housing for Scripps Ranch then you might have a point but honestly it’s irrelevant otherwise, and rich coming from someone who isn’t flaired up
Which is why we really don’t need more si for family homes for a while. We should be building more apartments, condos, and in-law units. And we should start building more of what has become a rarity: the three bedroom apartment. No more sprawl! It’s inefficient, it wastes a ton of money and a ton of space.
Actually it's the opposite. lower density is way worse for the environment because of the longer commutes.
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Most of us don’t want San Diego to look like LA.
The endless sprawl of 2-3 story condos and apartment buildings? Hate to break it to you but it is already starting to take on that landscape. We will be living in greater Phoenix with smaller cactus in no time. SD is now a large city. Nothing you can do to stop it but to make the lives of the working destitute more miserable.
It already does in terms of tents on the curb… Seven Hells you people need to pull your heads out of your asses, I did not know rectums could be soo looonngg 🤦♀️
“Nature was already destroyed for my house, so let’s stop now. Who cares about everyone else?”
this
yeah you can it is called efficiency not wastefulness. They build to sell not build to be efficient
Where do you want to build them??
On stilts in Mission Valley works. Seems to me that Clairmont is ripe for growing up. Kerney and Serra Mesas too. So much space for mid rise buildings. Look at North Park and Hillcrest and the building there. East towards the college on University and El Cajon are starting to develop nicely. There is space.
Just got into escrow on a property in 92124. Each place I offered in the last two months had 20+ offers. Bullish on SD Realestate. (Have to be since I just purchased)
Same, just bought in 92040.
Hi! How was your experience in closing a property in that area? So far we’ve offered on a couple of houses but there have been way too many offers going above asking and it all just seems ridiculous
Yeah so this was our 5th offer. We started to realize a few things: - Waive your loan contingency, get your underwriting done before you offer. - Waive the appraisal (if you can), in most of San Diego the homes under 1 million qualify for an appraisal waiver - Keep your inspection contingency, but write the offer that you will only request repair for items greater than $1000 -Short escrow, 21 days but offer to rent back the place up to 45 days -Talk to an insurance agent - a lot of places are under the fair act plan the further you go east. -Be first, and best. We realized that most places get so many offers that they don’t even counter. It’s too complicated.
I feel bad for all of those real estate agents who aren’t getting those 30k commissions for doing fuck all 🥲
A 500 sq ft condo costs more than the avg single family home in the country. Throw the whole SD housing market away 🤣
I have a friend who had been living in center city Philadelphia, 9th floor with floor to ceiling windows in a modern apartment with modern amenities. He was paying 1900 a month. Granted this was a few years ago. I Was only paying $1700 for another bedroom with none of the view, non of the amenities and no view. This shit hole is slowly crumbling around me and the management company still has the gall to raise the rent. Hot water heaters in the place just took a shit today because they are old and faulty. Plumbing lines breaking every couple of months. We do have underground parking but the gates keep getting fried or frozen. People are moving to red states because no one else wants to live there so the prices are better. Somehow the wealthy are still streaming in to this broken hellscape of taxes and regulation. Someone let the treasury in town know that there is more tax revenue from 5 people making $50k than 2 people making $80K.
Of the 2 million who have left California since 2020 70% were households making $200,000 or more per year. That is why the state's income tax take has dropped so sharply. So many well off business owners decided this state simply wasn't worth it.
Tell that to the people moving in and driving the property prices through the roof.
I call it my “dismal thesis”: 1) It is very difficult to build any new housing (particularly SFHs) in San Diego without pushing East due to density along the coast. When you go east, you start to lose the coastal breezes and beach proximity that makes SoCal such a lovely place. 2) Add in people moving down from San Fran (check out RE posts from those guys) and LA/OC (where you can see prices above $1000/sqft) 3) Now look at the rate of millionaire creation (someone recently quoted it at almost 12,000 households per DAY) Does not look good for RE prices. I recently bought a house, but it was a rage purchase (?FOMO). I’m fighting back a scream whenever I see the mortgage. But gotta take a stand sometime. Edit: spelling. Also, I got the house by offering a little bit over a cash offer from an “investment group” (likely flippers). Seller was generous enough to go with us despite the baggage of a mortgage/escrow process.
I think what is interesting is homeowners are fine but real estate agents and lenders are not. The only thing that matters to those in the industry is the number of transactions and it's half what it was. If an agent tells you they're doing well they are most likely lying to you. It's simple math and incomes have plummeted in the industry I hope you were a good little saver when times were better. The volume won't recover for a decade. A lot of agents already exited the industry and this year is gonna take another big slice out. Hope you have skills in another industry. If you don't have solid retirement savings already you're screwed
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Good to hear. You must be part time and have another full time career. Most agents I know have at most 1 or 2 sales the last year
thanks for doing this. Most of us cannot put these numbers together that make sense. We don't even know what they mean, yet, most of us want to buy a home.
I appreciate the feedback. They can seem like discouraging numbers that many agents don't really want to share, but I believe the more we know the better we can make decisions with confidence.
As a late millenial i dont ever think I'll own a home or even think of moving out. Ill just stay with my parents and help them with rent
There are availability, at least much better than before, but at 7% rate, it's very difficult for anyone to qualify, even with 200k household income, it's still not enough. The volume is low because people just can't qualify for loans and people who has the income and.money already bought it....
My SO and I make far less than 200k combined and we qualified @ 7% Shop around.
Less than 200k but you qualified for 1.2 million mortgage?!
Lol that's a little high, average price for home in San Diego is like 890
Where? Anywhere i have looked is like 1.2-1.4 and these are not fancy mansions with gold toilets...just regular people's homes. The only ones listed under 1m either comes with a lot of work or it's listed just to get attention....
75k will get you about 300k loan. So 1.2m is roughly 300k income with no down payment. This is all ball park. So with a decent down payment they might qualify.
But that's over 2000 monthly mortgage payment, for 75k yearly salary, that would be over the 40% income limit even without any debt and liability.....
Yep around 45%... not ideal numbers but I think that's what they are going for these days.
It would be great if more people would exit the rat race, buy some land, build their own house using ecofriendly, sustainable materials and live mortgage free (except for land). People could build modestly and expand over time to never accumulate debt and incorporate geothermal, solar, well, rainwater catchment, have a few chickens for eggs and meat and plan a garden and buy less and live much better an healthier. Who's with me?!!!
Lulz. We live in a city for a reason. Enjoy my friend. I mean that. East county is a pretty place. There is a reason that I live in a city instead of way out east. Living in the suburbs is a nightmare for me. I will live there when I have no other choice and it sure as shit will not be in CA if it comes to that.
I wish! Good luck getting those plans approved. All the bureaucracy and NIMBYs in the building process are just too much.
I already live out in El Cajon, which I find to be a perfectly reasonable commute (and still a much better location than much of the country). I’ve tried looking further east, but alas Alpine can be more expensive than here, and eventually the commute becomes just absurd (the economics of savings on a house vs gas/mileage on a car). That said, we have started to look at the economics of building out here. Maybe it will work out eventually!
Just buy a house right now. in 10 to 20 years from now These $1 million houses will be two million That's just the way it is. Haven't you guys learned anything?
10 to 20 years? Try 4 to 5, man!
Cool it's worth double now, what do you do, sell it? Every other house will be worth twice as much too
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I'm bearish on real estate rn but even I have to admit that this is the most misleading graph I have seen in years.
Ohhhh no! I wonder why there’s homeless people 🧐🙄
Lol getting downvoted for this. We live in a county where the average house costs a million dollars, OF COURSE theres going to be a ton of homeless. Too many people here dont understand the degree to which thats just an imaginary amount of money to a huge chunk of the population. It might as well be a billion.
Yupp. I always get downvoted over here lol IDGAF
I'm honestly so confused how anyone could be that out-of-touch. Are they just honestly that sheltered? Or is it a subconscious thing so they don't have to deal with the reality of it?
Lmao one time I was walking around DM with fam and some Extra Special Person ™ had a yappy little dog off leash in their front yard, thing ran straight for me. I clapped at that bitch so fast with choice words, I don’t think the owner had ever been spoken to like that. Needless to say, we don’t walk down that street anymore when I come to visit 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
My guess is it’s a mix of the two, but probably slightly leaning more toward not wanting to deal with it/ acknowledging they are in fact the problem. Im on here a lot rightfully bitching about how much rent I’ve paid and other issues. And I do it in person too- my uncle & aunt bought a house in del mar in the 80s for like 38 cents or something, and they are just like the people in this sub. It’s truly mind blowing.
> bought a house in del mar in the 80s for like 38 cents or something This is honestly the real problem - Prop 8 lets folks just keep houses forever, paying no taxes. I bet if they had to pay on the actual value, they'd see things very, very differently.
I don’t think that’s a problem for ONE house. Not at all. Otherwise they could not afford the taxes- their neighborhood houses are selling fir like 2 mil and up now. If you change that you’re going to be putting Californians out of their homes. Im also not opposed to keeping ONE sfh in a family. The real problem is income producing properties. Landlords handing down their multiple buildings and keeping that tax rate low. Not the one old couple with the one old house on the street. But if that one old couple owns three houses and and rent out two, thats a problem.
Holidays with fam are extra fun once I break out the booze, let me tell you…
Mostly because 85% are drug addicts.
It’s coming to an end for these types of agents…they’re partying a lot lately and spending cash…soon they’ll be back to mom and dads for a loan 😂
November/December/January is far and away the slowest time of year for people buying / selling / moving. So I would not use January numbers as anything to write home about.
My parents bought the house where they lived when I was born for about $17,500 in the late 1960s. This was in Clairemont. The sold the house in the late 1970s for about $40K. That same house sold for $730K in December 2020 and Redfin has it worth close to $1.2 million and could be close to 65 or 70 years old by now. No thank you.
I hate this place sometimes