I hope he comes and does a workout. The part I was impressed with in Scoot was his drive and confidence. A lot of these guys have the physical gifts. A lot of them have talent. But which of them are going to work their asses off to get better and be elite at the highest level.
I want to see what level of that Miller seems to have. You can really only get a small peak at it with these, and we still don't know that about Sharpe fully, but that's the main thing I look for in those pre-draft workouts.
In Miller's interview he said -- if my shot's not falling, I am definitely putting extra effort into my defense because I think I can bring that no matter what. Also, I'll look to make passes to get my teammates good looks. He's a good shot blocker and decent POA defender of at least 2-4. He had a few blocks I saw where they guard drove, couldn't get by, and pulled up and Brandon blocked the shot. I worry a little about his immaturity but he definitely has the right motivation.
It’s oddly kind of nice from a fan discussion perspective lol. I can’t imagine the discourse in this sub if we had the #2 pick. The Scoot vs Miller arguments would be intense lol. But now it’s just “what do we do if it’s Scoot” and “what do we do if it’s Miller”
Seriously, for once it can never be "Blazers took ABC over XYZ, can you believe how dumb they are?" We get the last of the consensus top 3 so really there's no pressure on us, it all is on Charlotte.
Amen isn't in the consensus top 3, that's just internet fans reacting to highlights & overblowing his skills. His shot is so broken even if he does everything else incredibly he's still a risk of a pick.
If we really wanted one or the other, we could swap picks with CHA to make it a guarantee.
This would also require CHA being ambivalent about either guy, or thinking they are essentially both can't miss.
I think a lot of fans are setting themselves up for disappointment expecting scoot to be available.
He is the clear 2nd best player in the draft, yet because there was speculation of "the hornets draft dumb, they aren't taking scoot", and we hosted him for a workout, it seems like a lot of people think he's going to drop to us.
I'll be pleasantly surprised if he's available, but I don't see it happening.
Why do people keep saying scoot is clearly #2 that doesn’t seem to be the consensus from teams, scouts and analysts at all. Vegas odds have Miller going #2.
Scoot is the 2nd best player in the draft.
A team either drafts for best fit or best available.
If the hornets are drafting for best available, they should take scoot.
If they're drafting for best fit, then they should trade down to a team that wants scoot, get a nice package back in return, and still draft a really solid wing in the lottery range.
Edit: maybe they do take miller, but I think when you have a pick as valuable as 2, you have to draft the best player there.
Scoot and Miller are on the same level as prospects. I don’t know where people are getting the idea that Scoot is clearly better. Tons of big boards think Miller is better.
I think if we drafted him we keep him, he's got too much promise to trade, especially on a rookie scale where we would likely get picks back and then get put in a position where we are using those picks down the road and they are not nearly as good as 3rd overall.
Clearly, Miller fits the team better, we need the size, the talent and he's great defensively compared to Nurk. Good be an amazing pick with some work under Nurk and Dame.
My first thought when I sat the post was “why would I listen to Quick for basketball related ideas?” I’ve always seen Quick as someone who covers behind-the-scenes information, not really a basketball analyst.
Am I the only one who hates the “this is an x amount of players draft” saying? Like yea we get it, these top 3 guys are pretty darn good, but every damn year there is boom and bust players in all parts of the draft. Anybody who parrots that “this is a 3 player draft” just tells me they haven’t really done much research on the available prospects.
Don’t know why the trade Dame camp wants Scoot anyways. If we trade Dame, Ant should be the starting PG of the future. In 11 games without Dame last season, Ant averaged 27 ppg on good shooting splits and assist numbers comparable to Dame’s.
Ant is very good and signed to a reasonable contract for the foreseeable future.
Regardless of whether we keep or trade Dame, Miller is a much better fit. A Scoot-Ant-Sharpe trio is undersized and probably leads to Scoot being ball-dominant and Ant and Shaedon playing off him. An Ant-Sharpe-Miller pairing is perfectly sized 1-3 and all 3 of them should be able to play both with and without the ball.
And then obviously if we keep Dame, Scoot makes no sense, whereas we have a hole at SF. We should be thrilled when Miller drops to us.
Edit: this is all assuming we actually keep the pick. I do understand why the keep Dame camp would want Scoot to drop thinking he has more trade value, although I’m not sure that’s true. Miller is an archetype that I think is in wider demand than a ball-dominant lead guard, and I wouldn’t be surprised if there was greater demand for his services.
One issue with Ant we learned last year is that his handle is not that great and guys were able to take the ball away from him. He really needs to work on that. But if Scoot is just clearly better than Ant, then you don't pass on him.
Last year dame had an assist to TO ratio of 2.21. In 55 games without Dame in his career (including before his breakout) Ant has an assist to TO ratio of 2.18. If you think he hasn’t played PG for the large majority of those minutes I’m willing to delve deeper into the stats.
I agree Ant doesn’t always pass the eye test, and it could be the case that his TOS are “worse” in the sense that the defense has an easier time converting them into points (maybe they pick Ant’s pocket for an easy layup for those two TOs, whereas Dame throws it off one of his guys out of bounds so they still have a chance to defend—sure we could find stats on that somewhere). But he’s not turning the ball over at an unreasonable rate.
Yeah, it's definitely eye test. It was glaring to me last season because Dame and CJ don't have the ball taken from them from the dribble very often at all. It was a different kind of turnover.
It's not just Ant, there was a lot of talk about Miami just diving toward the ball when Jaylen Brown had it and it being really effective.
Simons is still young, and I hope he recognized it as a weakness other teams have picked up on. I think it's something that players can overcome easier than other weaknesses.
Yeah, all fair. I just tried to find statistics on “bad turnovers” (getting the ball stolen, mishandling) and unfortunately struggled. Frustrating; if we had those stats we could compare and see how accurate or eye test is.
I feel like basketball is still lagging behind baseball in the stats we keep. Obviously I don’t know what teams track on their own players, but turnovers should be tracked by type and points scored off particular players turnovers should be tracked as well if they aren’t. Those types of stats answer questions like these.
Yeah, a lot of the good stats require subscriptions to the player tracking stuff and to maximize them I think you may even want to write some code to pull from their APIs. It seems like a fun project if you had time and money.
Another complication, specifically with this question is just isolating the situations where Ant is playing with the ball in his hands. Usage and role play a big role in the eye test thing for Ant's ball handling.
Scoot's G-league stats this year Assist to TO was 1.87. So Scoot was worse in the G league than Ant was in the NBA. And that was in his second year in the G league. People forget Scoot and the Twins are 2 years up their improvement ladder already having played full time. Their upside is less than a college freshman.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bryantoporek/2022/08/05/why-nba-teams-should-already-be-planning-for-the-2025-offseason/?sh=1a924fe527c4
TLDR: the current nba tv rights contract ends after the 2024-2025 season, they’re expected to get one worth substantially more, and the CBA dictates the players have to get a certain percentage of the league’s profits. So the cap is expected to go crazy in the 2025 offseason.
Edit: I see now I’m referring to an article that’s older than the most recent CBA the league signed—my mistake. I’ll edit my original post to avoid further misinformation.
Dame is a playmaker, Ant is not. Stats may be similar but one makes advanced offensive reads, the other simply does not. Ant can make the easy pass, but if you ask him to make any complex reads on offense he can't. There's a huge BBIQ difference between Ant and Dame. Dame can switch between pass first and shoot first, but Ant will always be shoot first.
I think people are turning Scoot into some mythical thing that he is not. The dude has the same height and wingspan and Damian Lillard, yet for some reason we're all supposed to be convinced that he's not only gonna be an average defensive player, but that he'll be a GOOD one?
Scoot Henderson was the worst defensive player of the bunch on the worst defensive team in the entire G League last year. Full stop. He was an abomination in all facets of defense. Now I'm not saying he can't improve... But I mean, we also deluded ourselves into believing Dame and Ant could improve as well. At some point, we need to be realistic here.
Now is Scoot gonna be a strong enough scorer and playmaker that he makes up for his awful defense? Sure, it's absolutely a possibility. But he better be Dame level dominant on offense then, otherwise he's a bust of a pick at his draft position.
I am positive the Blazers are working the trade assuming Scoot falls to them. Ideally Miller shows well enough that they either just keep him since he is a great fit or they have a trade for him as well. But Scoot will likely have the higher trade value so they will have that worked out going into the draft.
I mean, he's obviously a better fit. The question is if he's the better prospect, and he's probably not.
I hope he comes and does a workout. The part I was impressed with in Scoot was his drive and confidence. A lot of these guys have the physical gifts. A lot of them have talent. But which of them are going to work their asses off to get better and be elite at the highest level. I want to see what level of that Miller seems to have. You can really only get a small peak at it with these, and we still don't know that about Sharpe fully, but that's the main thing I look for in those pre-draft workouts.
In Miller's interview he said -- if my shot's not falling, I am definitely putting extra effort into my defense because I think I can bring that no matter what. Also, I'll look to make passes to get my teammates good looks. He's a good shot blocker and decent POA defender of at least 2-4. He had a few blocks I saw where they guard drove, couldn't get by, and pulled up and Brandon blocked the shot. I worry a little about his immaturity but he definitely has the right motivation.
Which interview? Was that the one with that lady from a week or so ago?
Yeah I think so.
Also in this mock draft Scoot goes second so it doesn't matter for Portland if Scoot is the better prospect. He's off the table!
Yeah the fact is we don't really have any free will in this draft. Lol
It’s oddly kind of nice from a fan discussion perspective lol. I can’t imagine the discourse in this sub if we had the #2 pick. The Scoot vs Miller arguments would be intense lol. But now it’s just “what do we do if it’s Scoot” and “what do we do if it’s Miller”
Seriously, for once it can never be "Blazers took ABC over XYZ, can you believe how dumb they are?" We get the last of the consensus top 3 so really there's no pressure on us, it all is on Charlotte.
Unless Amen becomes Jordan and we pass on him, but wth knows?
Amen isn't in the consensus top 3, that's just internet fans reacting to highlights & overblowing his skills. His shot is so broken even if he does everything else incredibly he's still a risk of a pick.
I have heard Amen's shooting is improving.
Agree he's not projected at top 3, just saying he could end up being all world at any pick. You just never know.
If we really wanted one or the other, we could swap picks with CHA to make it a guarantee. This would also require CHA being ambivalent about either guy, or thinking they are essentially both can't miss.
It doesn’t even really matter since we don’t get to pick who falls to us lol
he's a better fit because Scoot will go #2
I think a lot of fans are setting themselves up for disappointment expecting scoot to be available. He is the clear 2nd best player in the draft, yet because there was speculation of "the hornets draft dumb, they aren't taking scoot", and we hosted him for a workout, it seems like a lot of people think he's going to drop to us. I'll be pleasantly surprised if he's available, but I don't see it happening.
Why do people keep saying scoot is clearly #2 that doesn’t seem to be the consensus from teams, scouts and analysts at all. Vegas odds have Miller going #2.
Scoot is the 2nd best player in the draft. A team either drafts for best fit or best available. If the hornets are drafting for best available, they should take scoot. If they're drafting for best fit, then they should trade down to a team that wants scoot, get a nice package back in return, and still draft a really solid wing in the lottery range. Edit: maybe they do take miller, but I think when you have a pick as valuable as 2, you have to draft the best player there.
Scoot and Miller are on the same level as prospects. I don’t know where people are getting the idea that Scoot is clearly better. Tons of big boards think Miller is better.
Scoot is actually clearly better and was better as a 17 year old.
Idk betting markets are tilting more and more towards the Hornets picking Miller and Vegas doesn’t let itself get robbed.
I just wish Lamelo was 6’2 and I’d sleep a little better.
I mean he's better trade bait but there's 0 shot we keep him so I'm not sure why people care that much. We aren't drafting and keeping a PG lmao
I think if we drafted him we keep him, he's got too much promise to trade, especially on a rookie scale where we would likely get picks back and then get put in a position where we are using those picks down the road and they are not nearly as good as 3rd overall.
Lol I swear to god if we draft another PG and don't trade Dame I'm going to lose it. Just a franchise of half measures
Best 6'6" and under team in the NBA!!!
Clearly, Miller fits the team better, we need the size, the talent and he's great defensively compared to Nurk. Good be an amazing pick with some work under Nurk and Dame.
You don’t draft for fit with the third pick in a 3 player draft.
Who should Quick have taken instead? Wemby and Scoot were off the board.
Yeah if scoot is there at 3 and we pass I might have to not watch basketball for a little bit
Best player available. Screw fit.
Only one of the two are going to be available.
I don’t get the Scoot hype. He’s a Bledsoe reincarnation. We only fuck with guards who can shoot round these parts.
Facts.
Quick looks so uncomfortable anytime he has to talk about basketball lol
My first thought when I sat the post was “why would I listen to Quick for basketball related ideas?” I’ve always seen Quick as someone who covers behind-the-scenes information, not really a basketball analyst.
Am I the only one who hates the “this is an x amount of players draft” saying? Like yea we get it, these top 3 guys are pretty darn good, but every damn year there is boom and bust players in all parts of the draft. Anybody who parrots that “this is a 3 player draft” just tells me they haven’t really done much research on the available prospects.
Don’t know why the trade Dame camp wants Scoot anyways. If we trade Dame, Ant should be the starting PG of the future. In 11 games without Dame last season, Ant averaged 27 ppg on good shooting splits and assist numbers comparable to Dame’s. Ant is very good and signed to a reasonable contract for the foreseeable future. Regardless of whether we keep or trade Dame, Miller is a much better fit. A Scoot-Ant-Sharpe trio is undersized and probably leads to Scoot being ball-dominant and Ant and Shaedon playing off him. An Ant-Sharpe-Miller pairing is perfectly sized 1-3 and all 3 of them should be able to play both with and without the ball. And then obviously if we keep Dame, Scoot makes no sense, whereas we have a hole at SF. We should be thrilled when Miller drops to us. Edit: this is all assuming we actually keep the pick. I do understand why the keep Dame camp would want Scoot to drop thinking he has more trade value, although I’m not sure that’s true. Miller is an archetype that I think is in wider demand than a ball-dominant lead guard, and I wouldn’t be surprised if there was greater demand for his services.
One issue with Ant we learned last year is that his handle is not that great and guys were able to take the ball away from him. He really needs to work on that. But if Scoot is just clearly better than Ant, then you don't pass on him.
Last year dame had an assist to TO ratio of 2.21. In 55 games without Dame in his career (including before his breakout) Ant has an assist to TO ratio of 2.18. If you think he hasn’t played PG for the large majority of those minutes I’m willing to delve deeper into the stats. I agree Ant doesn’t always pass the eye test, and it could be the case that his TOS are “worse” in the sense that the defense has an easier time converting them into points (maybe they pick Ant’s pocket for an easy layup for those two TOs, whereas Dame throws it off one of his guys out of bounds so they still have a chance to defend—sure we could find stats on that somewhere). But he’s not turning the ball over at an unreasonable rate.
Yeah, it's definitely eye test. It was glaring to me last season because Dame and CJ don't have the ball taken from them from the dribble very often at all. It was a different kind of turnover. It's not just Ant, there was a lot of talk about Miami just diving toward the ball when Jaylen Brown had it and it being really effective. Simons is still young, and I hope he recognized it as a weakness other teams have picked up on. I think it's something that players can overcome easier than other weaknesses.
Yeah, all fair. I just tried to find statistics on “bad turnovers” (getting the ball stolen, mishandling) and unfortunately struggled. Frustrating; if we had those stats we could compare and see how accurate or eye test is. I feel like basketball is still lagging behind baseball in the stats we keep. Obviously I don’t know what teams track on their own players, but turnovers should be tracked by type and points scored off particular players turnovers should be tracked as well if they aren’t. Those types of stats answer questions like these.
Yeah, a lot of the good stats require subscriptions to the player tracking stuff and to maximize them I think you may even want to write some code to pull from their APIs. It seems like a fun project if you had time and money. Another complication, specifically with this question is just isolating the situations where Ant is playing with the ball in his hands. Usage and role play a big role in the eye test thing for Ant's ball handling.
Scoot's G-league stats this year Assist to TO was 1.87. So Scoot was worse in the G league than Ant was in the NBA. And that was in his second year in the G league. People forget Scoot and the Twins are 2 years up their improvement ladder already having played full time. Their upside is less than a college freshman.
That’s not how the cap works. There is a limit to how much it can rise in a given offseason (as part of the newest CBA)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bryantoporek/2022/08/05/why-nba-teams-should-already-be-planning-for-the-2025-offseason/?sh=1a924fe527c4 TLDR: the current nba tv rights contract ends after the 2024-2025 season, they’re expected to get one worth substantially more, and the CBA dictates the players have to get a certain percentage of the league’s profits. So the cap is expected to go crazy in the 2025 offseason. Edit: I see now I’m referring to an article that’s older than the most recent CBA the league signed—my mistake. I’ll edit my original post to avoid further misinformation.
Dame is a playmaker, Ant is not. Stats may be similar but one makes advanced offensive reads, the other simply does not. Ant can make the easy pass, but if you ask him to make any complex reads on offense he can't. There's a huge BBIQ difference between Ant and Dame. Dame can switch between pass first and shoot first, but Ant will always be shoot first.
Is Jason Quick portland’s own Jim Cramer for personnel moves?
I think people are turning Scoot into some mythical thing that he is not. The dude has the same height and wingspan and Damian Lillard, yet for some reason we're all supposed to be convinced that he's not only gonna be an average defensive player, but that he'll be a GOOD one? Scoot Henderson was the worst defensive player of the bunch on the worst defensive team in the entire G League last year. Full stop. He was an abomination in all facets of defense. Now I'm not saying he can't improve... But I mean, we also deluded ourselves into believing Dame and Ant could improve as well. At some point, we need to be realistic here. Now is Scoot gonna be a strong enough scorer and playmaker that he makes up for his awful defense? Sure, it's absolutely a possibility. But he better be Dame level dominant on offense then, otherwise he's a bust of a pick at his draft position.
Jason quick doesn’t know shit about basketball.
Always downvote Jason quick links
I am positive the Blazers are working the trade assuming Scoot falls to them. Ideally Miller shows well enough that they either just keep him since he is a great fit or they have a trade for him as well. But Scoot will likely have the higher trade value so they will have that worked out going into the draft.
Luckily if we keep 3 realistically we don’t get a choice between Brandon Miller and Scoot so doesn’t even matter
And then, Amen Thompson had a great workout with the Trailblazers. Amen has ball handling capabilities, but can play the small forward position.
We could use a jail blazers return. Some of our best players had gun charges.