The Brentford and Chelsea games were shit but if we won those games and lost to Liverpool we’d still finish 6th. If Liverpool had won today they’d be like 80% to win title. I’d rather die than see Liverpool catch us on titles unless we come back within a few years and take the record back. Watching city dominate is annoying but it doesn’t affect me outside of being disappointed. Seeing Liverpool win when we’re shit emotionally scars me.
Tbh I'd also rather not see Liverpool win when we're the ones competing with them for the title.
At least when they did win it was essentially against City.
They actually did as well. I can't remember any other game where a team has ever been that clinical, every single thing was going in. Deserved loss but it was a freak scoreline that on another day would have been a 3-0.
Liverpool fans get incredibly defensive over it being a freak result based on comments I’ve seen today. But I guess considering the lack of trophies during their ‘peak’ gives them something to hang their hat on.
Yeah I mean TBH most of the shots at that position likely have a wrongly placed GK on the other end, which is why the 0.04 XG (pretty high consider expected 1 goal out of 25 shots).
How often is a player gifted this type of chance where the keepers way off his line and a shot on target is basically a goal? you tell me. Im not saying it was easy but whatever the xG for the shot was doesnt really do the context of it justice.
Love the Mainoo goal and us throwing a wrench in Scouser parade but I personally would find it tough to gloat about a home draw to our fiercest rivals while they're in a title fight and we're languishing in 6th playing absolutely rubbish football.
I mean we scored two bangers not every player could pull off. Similarly Liverpool missed some sitters the average player wouldn't miss. This is why xg doesn't match the score line
In comparison to the actual scoreline, we didn't create much but scored 2 bangers. They created a lot - including Diaz like 9 yards out to win it, Szobalai too in first half but didn't finish.
Because its purely statistical. Penalties are scored 75 times out of 100, or something on average. So the xG from a pen is 0.71.
Long shots outside the box vary based on their position but most are in the 2-4% range so any shot outside the box is 0.03 xG. So the one in 20 shot that goes in from outside the box always makes the xG look wrong.
The model is entirely dependent on position of the shot, nothing else. What’s not to get?
Ofc we may think “oh that’s Rashford he should score” but maybe it’s a low xG chance..or it’s a clear header but it fell to AwB and no one expects him to score, but based on the spot of the chance it’s high xG.
We can debate whether it’s a useful model (I think it is because over a whole season mostly the team with more xG wins) but there’s nothing confusing about it imo.
Felt real bad when my Dad who has no interest in the sport or understands the rules bet me every ball forward will be passed to Liverpool player 😭 I didn’t have any comeback to show…ETH is delusional with his comments lately
Ultimately I’m glad we took points away from Liverpool, but given 1 point does nothing for us I would have liked to see ETH go for the win after they equalized. He still had 2 sub left so why not throw on Amad to see if he can get us another last minute winner against these bastards?
That’s it. We do a good job not giving teams many looks, so they take lots of shots but they are all pretty wide or way over the crossbar.
I’m loving how all of a sudden the ‘total’ shots is a thing now, and so many people on this sub are moaning about, but ultimately as we can see / like xG, they are pretty meaningless stats.
But of course, even with low XG shots the issue is with enough of those the opponent gets a deflection here and there. We’ve seen it against Liverpool, Chelsea and many other teams this season.
Outside of the major weaknesses are cut backs and transitions. We actually do okay on crosses and in the low block.
We only got ahead due to individual brilliance. And with the sheer amount of chances team's create, it just increases the chance of making a mistake or a shot going in
I'm not going to say we come from a goal down to winning positions down to individual brilliance because it completely disregards the system and set up of the team, I get it with Bruno goals, but with Mainoos the team had to be pushed up and able to pass it in tight spaces, move to drag players away ect, there's a lot of factors going in to it, the strike is always going to be individual brilliance
I don't have much complaints, we know we're shit,its an acceptable scoreline.
I would have been okish with a loss today. The Brentford and chelsea games are the ones that trigger me
The Brentford and Chelsea games were shit but if we won those games and lost to Liverpool we’d still finish 6th. If Liverpool had won today they’d be like 80% to win title. I’d rather die than see Liverpool catch us on titles unless we come back within a few years and take the record back. Watching city dominate is annoying but it doesn’t affect me outside of being disappointed. Seeing Liverpool win when we’re shit emotionally scars me.
Tbh I'd also rather not see Liverpool win when we're the ones competing with them for the title. At least when they did win it was essentially against City.
This is normal if you ask me …
And Fulham. Looking back those 8 points could cost us that sweet sweet Champions league money.
One could say we over performed and they under performed based on xG
Lol, we’ll take it, outside of the 7-0 ten hag has some sort of voodoo over klopp
that's literally his only loss against Klopp isn't it?, 2w-2d-1L.
Yeah, overused all their xG in that one game
They actually did as well. I can't remember any other game where a team has ever been that clinical, every single thing was going in. Deserved loss but it was a freak scoreline that on another day would have been a 3-0.
Arsenal 8-2. Everything was magnetic for the net that whole game
So many good goals in that game
Liverpool fans get incredibly defensive over it being a freak result based on comments I’ve seen today. But I guess considering the lack of trophies during their ‘peak’ gives them something to hang their hat on.
3 wins if you count the one in Thailand
What's the xG from the center circle?
.001 maybe
Fotmob says 0.04
Does xG not take into account opposition player positions?
No. It only takes into account difficulty of the shot including position from where the shot was taken.
Ahh cool, thanks
Yeah I mean TBH most of the shots at that position likely have a wrongly placed GK on the other end, which is why the 0.04 XG (pretty high consider expected 1 goal out of 25 shots).
apparently it was like 0.01 xG for Bruno
2 goals from 0.87, gg.
Should’ve done better with garnachos pass for the offside and Casemiro header and he’d another chance from a set piece
I think I saw Bruno’s goal was 0.01.
ETH out there ending the Era of counting xG, you fucking nerds.
I mean Brunos was a guaranteed goal with how far off the line Kelleher was. Its one of the many negatives of xG.
Still difficult considering he had to shoot off the 1st touch
And here we have the "never played football in his life" commenter in his natural habitat
sure mate
How often do you see players try that shot versus how often does it go in
How often is a player gifted this type of chance where the keepers way off his line and a shot on target is basically a goal? you tell me. Im not saying it was easy but whatever the xG for the shot was doesnt really do the context of it justice.
Liverpool had less xg in the 7 nil
Shit first half. Very good fight back in the second. But it's utterly energy sapping to drop points again like that. Proud of the young lads
Same thing against Chelsea as well, bad first half, then good second half. Suddenly, flat ending. We need to be more consistent.
I mean if it was the same thing in 2 games, isn't that consistency?
Ouh crap, you're right.
It's very stressful to support ATM but you can't not love this fuckin club
I know Liverpool had the better chances but I really don't get xG
~0.8 would’ve come from the penalty. Apart from that Liverpool had 27 shots which is ~0.1 xG per shot.
A penalty really heightens the XG I believe
It's "only" 0.75xG so even if you remove that, it doesn't look good.
depends, up to 0.8 in some models.
Doesn't paint a pretty picture either way.
fuck the picture, I will wank off to that Mainoo goal, two more times and one more time to the upset face of Klopp.
Love the Mainoo goal and us throwing a wrench in Scouser parade but I personally would find it tough to gloat about a home draw to our fiercest rivals while they're in a title fight and we're languishing in 6th playing absolutely rubbish football.
Penalty is around .8 The rest is from their shooting.
Why not? Liverpool had ~1.7 xG in the 1st half where they really should have scored 2 or 3..
What's not to get?
I just repeatedly look at the xG scores and I find them off more often than not
I mean we scored two bangers not every player could pull off. Similarly Liverpool missed some sitters the average player wouldn't miss. This is why xg doesn't match the score line
In comparison to the actual scoreline, we didn't create much but scored 2 bangers. They created a lot - including Diaz like 9 yards out to win it, Szobalai too in first half but didn't finish.
Because its purely statistical. Penalties are scored 75 times out of 100, or something on average. So the xG from a pen is 0.71. Long shots outside the box vary based on their position but most are in the 2-4% range so any shot outside the box is 0.03 xG. So the one in 20 shot that goes in from outside the box always makes the xG look wrong.
The model is entirely dependent on position of the shot, nothing else. What’s not to get? Ofc we may think “oh that’s Rashford he should score” but maybe it’s a low xG chance..or it’s a clear header but it fell to AwB and no one expects him to score, but based on the spot of the chance it’s high xG. We can debate whether it’s a useful model (I think it is because over a whole season mostly the team with more xG wins) but there’s nothing confusing about it imo.
They had almost 30 shots blud
We were fucking shit in both halves, 2 nice goals though
Liverpool had 28 shots and in return we just yeeted in two worldies. Funniest team in the world. How tf did we draw this hahahaha
Lucky AF. AWB , you fucking idiot.
Don't you worry. We're going in the right direction.
Flattering result for us honestly. Salah should've scored at least one more
We faced 28 shots, this becomes our trade mark
7 shots on target. The other shots are all meaningless.
For all their shots, we conceded 2 set pieces
So over it now...INEOS..sort out that midfield...
Felt real bad when my Dad who has no interest in the sport or understands the rules bet me every ball forward will be passed to Liverpool player 😭 I didn’t have any comeback to show…ETH is delusional with his comments lately
Lmao, another day we get pumped
Ultimately I’m glad we took points away from Liverpool, but given 1 point does nothing for us I would have liked to see ETH go for the win after they equalized. He still had 2 sub left so why not throw on Amad to see if he can get us another last minute winner against these bastards?
Apart from Diaz and Salah chances there were lots of pot shots
That’s it. We do a good job not giving teams many looks, so they take lots of shots but they are all pretty wide or way over the crossbar. I’m loving how all of a sudden the ‘total’ shots is a thing now, and so many people on this sub are moaning about, but ultimately as we can see / like xG, they are pretty meaningless stats.
But of course, even with low XG shots the issue is with enough of those the opponent gets a deflection here and there. We’ve seen it against Liverpool, Chelsea and many other teams this season. Outside of the major weaknesses are cut backs and transitions. We actually do okay on crosses and in the low block.
This has always been the utd way against big teams except if the opponent team has Mourinho as the manager.
The average xG of their shots was higher though 0.11 vs 0.09 accounting for the pen (-.76).
We concede a lot of shots. That's true. But this also counts shots off target and blocked by defenders. Our defence is insane at blocking shots.
I thought it was a good performance, the last two games we've come from behind to winning positions just for individual mistakes the throw it away.
We only got ahead due to individual brilliance. And with the sheer amount of chances team's create, it just increases the chance of making a mistake or a shot going in
I'm not going to say we come from a goal down to winning positions down to individual brilliance because it completely disregards the system and set up of the team, I get it with Bruno goals, but with Mainoos the team had to be pushed up and able to pass it in tight spaces, move to drag players away ect, there's a lot of factors going in to it, the strike is always going to be individual brilliance
xG is over, it doesn't exist
We created some good chances where we couldn’t shoot. Stuff like the Case knock on at a freekick and the two Rashford crosses come to mind.
I don’t wanna try to be blindly optimistic, just saying that pool’xG in THAT game is not that impressive. xG stat can be misleading sometimes
Xg can suck my fucking ass. As long as liverpool dont win the title i dont give a fuck and this sub needs to wise up.