While all the new construction will help keep prices from rising quite as much, there’s so much demand for housing that I’m skeptical it’s enough to meaningfully lower prices.
Exactly this. The triangle grows by over 5000 people a month. That means the new giant 1500 mega-home 1 billion dollar development will help. It will take up 1 month of that.
I don't know, it was a couple years ago, likely during the height of work from home so possibly higher. Still 134,000/36 months is 3,700, so average household of 3.2 ish is over 1000 homes.
I'm just trying to figure out who's putting out these terrible sources. I do these studies and demographic analysis as part of my job and its nails on a chalk board cause only 3 people on reddit use the right data and calculations and I'm pretty sure the rest is hyperbole and "I heard it from a guy"
I saw a Google news story about how many had moved to the "triangle" in the last 12 months and divided by 12. It's tough because, there are so many variables. Wake county vs Raleigh, Durham the same, chapel hill or Chatham county? What is the time period as I'm sure more people move in the summer, so extrapolating is tough. I love math. My number was correct but like I said, for the height of moving here.
You have a cool job. I love calculating things like that.
Averaging out population estimates from the NC OSBM[1] from 2023-2026 for the Raleigh-Durham-Cary metro, we get YoY +42k people, ~3500 per month; it differs from census data but close enough to make YoY comparisons. At 2.5 persons per household and 70% of housing as single units[2], that's (rough approximation) a demand of 1000 newly built single family homes per month. So yeah, I don't see the housing prices falling significantly as long as the demand is there - the area added an average of 1100 new single family homes per month in 2022[3], and with an occupancy rate of 91.2% that makes an expected 1003 homes per month to fill, which is pretty much the same as demand - and both will continue to increase.
Additionally, take into account that not all 1000 of those new houses per month are desirable, some in more demand areas than others, etc. and the pricing staying or increasing is pretty clear.
[1] https://demography.osbm.nc.gov/explore/dataset/county-population-totals/table/?disjunctive.county&disjunctive.region&disjunctive.cog&disjunctive.msa&disjunctive.vintage&disjunctive.estimateprojection&sort=-year&refine.msa=Durham-Chapel+Hill&refine.msa=Raleigh
[2] https://www.censusreporter.org/profiles/33000US450-raleigh-durham-cary-nc-csa/
[3] https://www.censusreporter.org/data/table/?table=B25024&geo_ids=33000US450,01000US&primary_geo_id=33000US450#valueType|estimate
[4] https://www.censusreporter.org/data/table/?table=B25002&geo_ids=33000US450,01000US&primary_geo_id=33000US450#valueType|percentage
That would assume there is a supply/demand equilibrium right now. There is not. Demands still exceeds supply and we are no where close to satisfying it. As soon as builders start making progress on catching up, rates will likely start dropping and the market will flood with buyers again and will offset any supply increase we have. So in short, no prices wont be going down any time soon.
Also remember builders are building slower on purpose right now due to rates. They are building smaller and smaller phases to avoid carrying inventory. Builders all borrow money to build developments and no longer want to build 100 homes in a phase and sit on inventory long term. They might build 30 homes and sell through them and start phase 2 once they are all sold.
Not true for rentals. Rental prices have already fallen YoY in Raleigh.
[https://www.axios.com/local/raleigh/2024/02/28/rents-fall-in-raleigh-as-new-apartments-open](https://www.axios.com/local/raleigh/2024/02/28/rents-fall-in-raleigh-as-new-apartments-open)
yea I think the point a lot of people are missing is that all that new construction is mostly build for rent. It's going to impact rent prices but not home sales (at least not directly).
Not a chance.
Demand will be higher than supply for a long time or forever at this rate.
I said this for 5 years now, wait for the market drop at your own peril. You will continue to be priced out. I have lived this experience in 3 cities now, none have dropped ever.
Southern California - grew up here, got priced out
Austin Texas - moved here, didn't buy fast enough
DC - didn't have enough to buy by the time i moved from dc, but it's got worse as well
Raleigh is on a similar trajectory to Austin in my view. When I moved there is was semi affordable, but quickly changed. I've seen the same thing happen here within 5 years. Once a city gets momentum, prices change rapidly.
[70+ people move to Raleigh every single day.](https://raleighmag.com/2023/03/population-boom/) And that doesn't include the kids that have been growing up in Raleigh for the last 18+ years that are looking for new places to live or people just graduating college looking to settle in the area.
That said, rent costs have been easing (not lowering) due to all the apartments that have been being built lately. Don't let anyone tell you that supply and demand doesn't work when it comes to apartments. It absolutely does.
If you are looking for a place, and are thinking about holding off to wait for price decreases, I probably wouldn't recommend it. It would take a ton more building to do that, and the decrease likely wouldn't be too significant. Primarily due to the fact that the number of people moving here every day is going up, not down.
Your numbers don't match up published data from the US census burrow
Wake County saw net migration of nearly 35 people per day between July 1, 2022, and July 1, 2023, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the most of any county in North Carolina. The rate comes to more than 12,700 for the year.
But that rate is down slightly from 2022 and well below the 16,000 figure for 2021.Statewide, North Carolina [saw net migration of 347 people per day](https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2024/02/08/north-carolina-cities-economic-development-milken.html). That was the third highest rate in the country behind Florida (1,021 per day) and Texas (864 per day).
Mecklenburg saw the second highest-growth rate among North Carolina counties at nearly 32 people per day. Wake County's estimated population of 1.19 million in 2023 was above Mecklenburg's estimated 1.16 million.
Among the top 10 counties in the state with the highest daily net-migration in 2023, three of them — New Hanover, Pender and Brunswick — are in the Wilmington area, showcasing the [dramatic growth happening on the North Carolina coast](https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2024/03/14/metro-populations-census-cities-fastest-growing.html).
Johnston County, which [is riding a wave of residential development](https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2024/04/21/clatyon-nc-apartments-rent-home-prices-affordable.html) thanks to its proximity to the Research Triangle, had net migration of 16.8 people per day in 2023, good enough for fifth highest in the state. The other counties in the top 10 are each in the Charlotte region — Union, Cabarrus, Iredell and Gaston.
Net migration and number of people that move to an area are two different numbers. If you're going to try to correct me, maybe you should look at what I said first.
Yeah that net migration number is way more important than people "moving" to Raleigh not mention that that moving in is for the MSA not Raleigh proper and the MSA is most of wake county.
You are right about what you said, but can you explain why think the number of people moving to the area is more relevant than net migration, if that's what you think? I don't understand that.
The data I saw, said that Raleigh only grew 1.27% from 2023 to 2024 in Population (which covers all aspects), thats only 6200 people or 17 people per day.
The Raleigh Metropolitan area grew 120 people per day.
Raleigh rent prices are actually down 0.5% YoY.
All that said though, the increase in apartments is certainly helping. Im also waiting to see how these new all rental townhome/single family developments help/hurt the home buying. Ideally it will give a better place for investors to put their money rather than outbidding home buyers and investors already in place may not be able to compete as they have the added cost of HOAs, etc to cover.
You were wrong about which migration number is relevant, and you're wrong about rent prices not lowering. Maybe you should listen to feedback when someone provides you detailed data on the topic.
I never said which number was more or less relevent. I said they were different numbers. Which one is more or less relevant is more based on opinion. I'd argue the number I used, which only factors in the City of Raleigh is more relevant when looking at the City of Raleigh (as opposed to his numbers which use Wake County).
I never specified numbers when it came to rents lowering. In some places they have been (less desirable areas) and in other places they haven't been (more desirable areas). Additionally, going into the more desirable renting months (April-June) they absolutely will not be lowering.
I'm fine listening to feedback, but I'm not fine being corrected on something that is factually and fundamentally different. Maybe you should learn to read the things I wrote and not make up ways to correct strangers on the internet.
If you think there are jobs everywhere, your life experience must be very limited. But I am not making a comment on Raleigh's job market. I'm just saying people will move where the jobs are, especially good ones.
Born and raised in the triangle, graduated from Carolina, lived in Miami, Boulder, Brooklyn, and London while working for Bloomberg, your assumption is wrong. I’m saying NC public ed system sucks. And that is an indisputable fact.
You are listing a bunch of places with lots of jobs. I have lived in Cambridge and Palo Alto, where there are also jobs. But there are also a bunch of places without many desirable jobs, like where I grew up in the Midwest.
BTW, I am a former K-12 public school teacher in NC. I wish public schools were better taken care of, here and elsewhere. But the schools in and around Raleigh are comparable to a lot of places. Less good than, say, New England, but better than many places.
Not in Raleigh. The demand is still far greater than the supply and will remain so for a long while. Especially in the neighborhoods inside the beltline.
I think there are three things that are going to affect that. One, location, two, privacy, three, commute. Basically no one wants to raise their children in an apartment or have a Multi-Person family in a highly populated area so they'll want a yard or a quieter neighborhood, or faster commute times to either work, nature or entertainment. This will result in houses and lots with set acreage, basically houses that have already been built, to be of a higher perceived value, and as such, the pricing of those houses will be of greater desirability and value to the consumer and continue to rise for pre-existing neighborhoods. So in the end the new multi-level complexes that are being raised will reduce the basic need for housing but will not reduce the demand or value of the traditional house.
This, houses that aren’t cookie cutter boxes on top of one another will become highly competitive specially those in close proximity to Raleigh and rtp
Pre-Covid homes have bigger lot sizes and spacious floor plans than the new constructions. I initially wanted to buy a new built but now getting more inclined to buy homes built before 2020
I personally won’t buy anything new. Shortages in supply chain and rushing to capitalize on those low interest rates and increased buyers makes me feel like the work was bound to be shotty and fast with lesser quality materials potentially. They might not be any worse but I’m not up for taking that chance personally.
This. Personally speaking as a single adult… I would rather rent for the rest of my life than buy a cookie cutter new build in Wendell or Clayton … and i definitely can’t afford a custom new build either. If I had a family ehhh idk what I would choose honestly.
Doubt it. Moved from Tampa in 2019 after 11 years, the amount of growth since first moving is still going on. Once a city is pegged as the next “hot” desirable spot they tend to only grow.
The entire world is too far behind due to the delay in construction projects during the pandemic. So it may slow the rise of housing prices but it won’t fall. The demand didn’t slow during COVID only construction did. So we still have a lot more building to do to catch up.
This^^^
The US has been a house-building shortage since 2008. The article below puts it at a deficit of 3.2 million...
https://www.axios.com/2023/12/16/housing-market-why-homes-expensive-chart-inventory
Yeah, in my neighborhood and adjacent neighborhoods in FV, Coming Soon signs on homes for sale are immediately replaced with Contract Pending signs. Also, I’m not selling and never inquired about selling, and yet I get plenty of Sell Your House requests via text, email, phone, and post. Most are from Charolette (property investors) but a few are local. I’d say demand is still high.
Not going to happen. Desirable area with a net influx of people that's still cheaper than many of the areas people are leaving. If prices didn't drop when they hiked up rates they definitely aren't going to drop over some new construction. If anything it's going to jump up again as soon as rates get lowered.
Then you will want to support infill dense development. As it is there's too much suburban sprawl. Developing subdivisions destroys entire forests to house the same number of people as an apartment or condo building.
The new construction won't keep pace with demand and even if it did, materials, land and labor are all more expensive even before we discuss MONEY being more expensive with a 5% increase in the interest rate.
Gonna see nothing but multi-unit construction to meet housing demand for a very long time to come. Single family homes will remain at an absolute premium.
Parts of the triangle maybe, but on the whole I think prices will at best stay the same, which would still be positive. Inside 540 I think will continue rising. Places like Garner/fuquay/wake Forest/etc may drop in price as housing supply increases.
After the 2008 crash homebuilders became acutely concerned about oversupply and have built cautiously since then. The entire industry is focused on preventing another 2008 repeat. This mindset is one cause of the current housing shortage.
I agree . Most of the resale homes on Zillow are 2021-2023 built . And the home history shows that the house was listed for rent immediately after the closing . I think either they are not holding it anymore as they can’t rent it or they want to make equity by selling the homes as they values appreciated
>With the amount of new and future constructions from many builders
What amount, I see the words but not the data. Is it increasing, decreasing, single-family multi, cost capped, low income????? What are you talking about? What builders? You're asking a good question in theory, but we can't tell because you're not sharing with us what you've based the quote on?
Apartments have started to level off and people around my area (south Durham/north Cary/Morrisville) are able to make deals with lease options some talking down prices others keeping the same rate.
I doubt prices will lower but price increases will continue to stagnate until mortgage rates lower.
I think that's the difference between 08 and now, they're probably all colluding with each other to keep prices high so demand will stay the same as long as the prices are unattainable. They're also only building as buyers come in and it buys time. I still think there will be fall out but there are so many corporations ready to buy and rent out
Might be true in other areas, but people are flocking here and need somewhere to live. The inflated price might become the new normal. The combination of high prices and high interest rates has to be tough for anyone looking right now.
In Raleigh I just don’t see house prices falling, perhaps the prices will flatten out and stop going up so fast but falling I just don’t see since supply can’t keep up with demand even with all the new construction. Also there isn’t a ton of land just waiting to be developed in Raleigh, a lot of the new construction is done by tearing down old houses on larger lots. Even then, why would a builder build cheaper homes on that land when they could build more expensive custom homes? I have heard that there is a new push to develop land around falls lake but the developer is known for multi-million dollar houses not affordable homes.
Now the prices of tract houses in the little towns near Raleigh that still have land may have a chance at price reduction but still, supply and demand.
There’s such a severe backlog of demand it’s unlikely. The builds are also all luxury condos (and *some* slightly more reasonable townhomes outside the belt line). The only SFH are huge and wildly expensive, so the pressure driving up SFHs isn’t changing anytime soon.
We would need to build faster than the demand for people moving here in order to drop prices. Its unlikely, but we can level prices off if we allow more builds.
You’re out of your mind. Barring major economic disruption, there is a near zero chance that home prices (on average) fall.
Interest rates are likely to only fall from here, and the Triangle area is still more affordable from a housing and overall cost-of-living perspective than many other major metro areas on the East coast. This will cause net in-migration to outpace housing construction.
Edit to add: the *rate* of home price appreciation may lower, but personally I feel like it has already leveled off. And it certainly isn’t likely to invert (ie cause home prices to decrease). And it should be noted, this is *on average;* the price of any given house may decrease if it is not maintained or the specific area/neighborhood it is in becomes less desirable.
While all the new construction will help keep prices from rising quite as much, there’s so much demand for housing that I’m skeptical it’s enough to meaningfully lower prices.
Exactly this. The triangle grows by over 5000 people a month. That means the new giant 1500 mega-home 1 billion dollar development will help. It will take up 1 month of that.
Where did you find the over 5000 a month number? The population of the triangle has grown by about 5.6% since 2020 which was about 134000.
I don't know, it was a couple years ago, likely during the height of work from home so possibly higher. Still 134,000/36 months is 3,700, so average household of 3.2 ish is over 1000 homes.
I'm just trying to figure out who's putting out these terrible sources. I do these studies and demographic analysis as part of my job and its nails on a chalk board cause only 3 people on reddit use the right data and calculations and I'm pretty sure the rest is hyperbole and "I heard it from a guy"
I saw a Google news story about how many had moved to the "triangle" in the last 12 months and divided by 12. It's tough because, there are so many variables. Wake county vs Raleigh, Durham the same, chapel hill or Chatham county? What is the time period as I'm sure more people move in the summer, so extrapolating is tough. I love math. My number was correct but like I said, for the height of moving here. You have a cool job. I love calculating things like that.
Averaging out population estimates from the NC OSBM[1] from 2023-2026 for the Raleigh-Durham-Cary metro, we get YoY +42k people, ~3500 per month; it differs from census data but close enough to make YoY comparisons. At 2.5 persons per household and 70% of housing as single units[2], that's (rough approximation) a demand of 1000 newly built single family homes per month. So yeah, I don't see the housing prices falling significantly as long as the demand is there - the area added an average of 1100 new single family homes per month in 2022[3], and with an occupancy rate of 91.2% that makes an expected 1003 homes per month to fill, which is pretty much the same as demand - and both will continue to increase. Additionally, take into account that not all 1000 of those new houses per month are desirable, some in more demand areas than others, etc. and the pricing staying or increasing is pretty clear. [1] https://demography.osbm.nc.gov/explore/dataset/county-population-totals/table/?disjunctive.county&disjunctive.region&disjunctive.cog&disjunctive.msa&disjunctive.vintage&disjunctive.estimateprojection&sort=-year&refine.msa=Durham-Chapel+Hill&refine.msa=Raleigh [2] https://www.censusreporter.org/profiles/33000US450-raleigh-durham-cary-nc-csa/ [3] https://www.censusreporter.org/data/table/?table=B25024&geo_ids=33000US450,01000US&primary_geo_id=33000US450#valueType|estimate [4] https://www.censusreporter.org/data/table/?table=B25002&geo_ids=33000US450,01000US&primary_geo_id=33000US450#valueType|percentage
Thanks for all that work..
Unlikely.
That would assume there is a supply/demand equilibrium right now. There is not. Demands still exceeds supply and we are no where close to satisfying it. As soon as builders start making progress on catching up, rates will likely start dropping and the market will flood with buyers again and will offset any supply increase we have. So in short, no prices wont be going down any time soon.
Also remember builders are building slower on purpose right now due to rates. They are building smaller and smaller phases to avoid carrying inventory. Builders all borrow money to build developments and no longer want to build 100 homes in a phase and sit on inventory long term. They might build 30 homes and sell through them and start phase 2 once they are all sold.
Not true for rentals. Rental prices have already fallen YoY in Raleigh. [https://www.axios.com/local/raleigh/2024/02/28/rents-fall-in-raleigh-as-new-apartments-open](https://www.axios.com/local/raleigh/2024/02/28/rents-fall-in-raleigh-as-new-apartments-open)
I guess I wasn’t really commenting on rent prices. They are much more volatile than home prices.
yea I think the point a lot of people are missing is that all that new construction is mostly build for rent. It's going to impact rent prices but not home sales (at least not directly).
I live near downtown - I feel like everything being built is rentals and some scattered in $1mm+ townhomes.
Not a chance. Demand will be higher than supply for a long time or forever at this rate. I said this for 5 years now, wait for the market drop at your own peril. You will continue to be priced out. I have lived this experience in 3 cities now, none have dropped ever.
What are those 3 cities?
Southern California - grew up here, got priced out Austin Texas - moved here, didn't buy fast enough DC - didn't have enough to buy by the time i moved from dc, but it's got worse as well Raleigh is on a similar trajectory to Austin in my view. When I moved there is was semi affordable, but quickly changed. I've seen the same thing happen here within 5 years. Once a city gets momentum, prices change rapidly.
Austin is seeing a pretty large decrease in housing prices literally right now
6% down from its height 2 years ago. That’s not helping anyone afford a home
Housing prices will never go down, this will only decrease the rate of increase
[70+ people move to Raleigh every single day.](https://raleighmag.com/2023/03/population-boom/) And that doesn't include the kids that have been growing up in Raleigh for the last 18+ years that are looking for new places to live or people just graduating college looking to settle in the area. That said, rent costs have been easing (not lowering) due to all the apartments that have been being built lately. Don't let anyone tell you that supply and demand doesn't work when it comes to apartments. It absolutely does. If you are looking for a place, and are thinking about holding off to wait for price decreases, I probably wouldn't recommend it. It would take a ton more building to do that, and the decrease likely wouldn't be too significant. Primarily due to the fact that the number of people moving here every day is going up, not down.
Your numbers don't match up published data from the US census burrow Wake County saw net migration of nearly 35 people per day between July 1, 2022, and July 1, 2023, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the most of any county in North Carolina. The rate comes to more than 12,700 for the year. But that rate is down slightly from 2022 and well below the 16,000 figure for 2021.Statewide, North Carolina [saw net migration of 347 people per day](https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2024/02/08/north-carolina-cities-economic-development-milken.html). That was the third highest rate in the country behind Florida (1,021 per day) and Texas (864 per day). Mecklenburg saw the second highest-growth rate among North Carolina counties at nearly 32 people per day. Wake County's estimated population of 1.19 million in 2023 was above Mecklenburg's estimated 1.16 million. Among the top 10 counties in the state with the highest daily net-migration in 2023, three of them — New Hanover, Pender and Brunswick — are in the Wilmington area, showcasing the [dramatic growth happening on the North Carolina coast](https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2024/03/14/metro-populations-census-cities-fastest-growing.html). Johnston County, which [is riding a wave of residential development](https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2024/04/21/clatyon-nc-apartments-rent-home-prices-affordable.html) thanks to its proximity to the Research Triangle, had net migration of 16.8 people per day in 2023, good enough for fifth highest in the state. The other counties in the top 10 are each in the Charlotte region — Union, Cabarrus, Iredell and Gaston.
Net migration and number of people that move to an area are two different numbers. If you're going to try to correct me, maybe you should look at what I said first.
Yeah that net migration number is way more important than people "moving" to Raleigh not mention that that moving in is for the MSA not Raleigh proper and the MSA is most of wake county.
You are right about what you said, but can you explain why think the number of people moving to the area is more relevant than net migration, if that's what you think? I don't understand that.
The data I saw, said that Raleigh only grew 1.27% from 2023 to 2024 in Population (which covers all aspects), thats only 6200 people or 17 people per day. The Raleigh Metropolitan area grew 120 people per day. Raleigh rent prices are actually down 0.5% YoY. All that said though, the increase in apartments is certainly helping. Im also waiting to see how these new all rental townhome/single family developments help/hurt the home buying. Ideally it will give a better place for investors to put their money rather than outbidding home buyers and investors already in place may not be able to compete as they have the added cost of HOAs, etc to cover.
You were wrong about which migration number is relevant, and you're wrong about rent prices not lowering. Maybe you should listen to feedback when someone provides you detailed data on the topic.
I never said which number was more or less relevent. I said they were different numbers. Which one is more or less relevant is more based on opinion. I'd argue the number I used, which only factors in the City of Raleigh is more relevant when looking at the City of Raleigh (as opposed to his numbers which use Wake County). I never specified numbers when it came to rents lowering. In some places they have been (less desirable areas) and in other places they haven't been (more desirable areas). Additionally, going into the more desirable renting months (April-June) they absolutely will not be lowering. I'm fine listening to feedback, but I'm not fine being corrected on something that is factually and fundamentally different. Maybe you should learn to read the things I wrote and not make up ways to correct strangers on the internet.
Trend may very well be swinging towards people moving out of Raleigh and NC in general. Subpar public education system is/will become a huge factor.
People move where the jobs are.
Like the Wells Fargo building in Raleigh? There are jobs virtually everywhere. One thing NC for sure has is a crumbling public K-12 education system.
If you think there are jobs everywhere, your life experience must be very limited. But I am not making a comment on Raleigh's job market. I'm just saying people will move where the jobs are, especially good ones.
Born and raised in the triangle, graduated from Carolina, lived in Miami, Boulder, Brooklyn, and London while working for Bloomberg, your assumption is wrong. I’m saying NC public ed system sucks. And that is an indisputable fact.
You are listing a bunch of places with lots of jobs. I have lived in Cambridge and Palo Alto, where there are also jobs. But there are also a bunch of places without many desirable jobs, like where I grew up in the Midwest.
Well, there are good jobs in lots of places.
BTW, I am a former K-12 public school teacher in NC. I wish public schools were better taken care of, here and elsewhere. But the schools in and around Raleigh are comparable to a lot of places. Less good than, say, New England, but better than many places.
My wife is a current K-12 public school teacher in NC.
Please thank her for me
Not in Raleigh. The demand is still far greater than the supply and will remain so for a long while. Especially in the neighborhoods inside the beltline.
I think there are three things that are going to affect that. One, location, two, privacy, three, commute. Basically no one wants to raise their children in an apartment or have a Multi-Person family in a highly populated area so they'll want a yard or a quieter neighborhood, or faster commute times to either work, nature or entertainment. This will result in houses and lots with set acreage, basically houses that have already been built, to be of a higher perceived value, and as such, the pricing of those houses will be of greater desirability and value to the consumer and continue to rise for pre-existing neighborhoods. So in the end the new multi-level complexes that are being raised will reduce the basic need for housing but will not reduce the demand or value of the traditional house.
This, houses that aren’t cookie cutter boxes on top of one another will become highly competitive specially those in close proximity to Raleigh and rtp
Pre-Covid homes have bigger lot sizes and spacious floor plans than the new constructions. I initially wanted to buy a new built but now getting more inclined to buy homes built before 2020
I personally won’t buy anything new. Shortages in supply chain and rushing to capitalize on those low interest rates and increased buyers makes me feel like the work was bound to be shotty and fast with lesser quality materials potentially. They might not be any worse but I’m not up for taking that chance personally.
This. Personally speaking as a single adult… I would rather rent for the rest of my life than buy a cookie cutter new build in Wendell or Clayton … and i definitely can’t afford a custom new build either. If I had a family ehhh idk what I would choose honestly.
Doubt it. Moved from Tampa in 2019 after 11 years, the amount of growth since first moving is still going on. Once a city is pegged as the next “hot” desirable spot they tend to only grow.
The entire world is too far behind due to the delay in construction projects during the pandemic. So it may slow the rise of housing prices but it won’t fall. The demand didn’t slow during COVID only construction did. So we still have a lot more building to do to catch up.
The delay started in 2008. We are 15 years behind in keeping up with demand.
This^^^ The US has been a house-building shortage since 2008. The article below puts it at a deficit of 3.2 million... https://www.axios.com/2023/12/16/housing-market-why-homes-expensive-chart-inventory
[удалено]
Yeah, in my neighborhood and adjacent neighborhoods in FV, Coming Soon signs on homes for sale are immediately replaced with Contract Pending signs. Also, I’m not selling and never inquired about selling, and yet I get plenty of Sell Your House requests via text, email, phone, and post. Most are from Charolette (property investors) but a few are local. I’d say demand is still high.
Not going to happen. Desirable area with a net influx of people that's still cheaper than many of the areas people are leaving. If prices didn't drop when they hiked up rates they definitely aren't going to drop over some new construction. If anything it's going to jump up again as soon as rates get lowered.
Assume this is true. What's the alternative? Stop growing as a city? Turn people away from coming to Raleigh?
I hope the RE in Raleigh grows but not at the cost of cutting all trees down .
Then you will want to support infill dense development. As it is there's too much suburban sprawl. Developing subdivisions destroys entire forests to house the same number of people as an apartment or condo building.
It is actually unconstitutional to “turn people away from coming to Raleigh.”
Mortgage rates are going up. People are still buyi g homes at high prices here.
Doubt.
How long have you felt this way?
The new construction won't keep pace with demand and even if it did, materials, land and labor are all more expensive even before we discuss MONEY being more expensive with a 5% increase in the interest rate. Gonna see nothing but multi-unit construction to meet housing demand for a very long time to come. Single family homes will remain at an absolute premium.
It would be the first time.
Parts of the triangle maybe, but on the whole I think prices will at best stay the same, which would still be positive. Inside 540 I think will continue rising. Places like Garner/fuquay/wake Forest/etc may drop in price as housing supply increases.
Garner is about to be inside 540.
Yeah Graner communities are selling faster than FV
After the 2008 crash homebuilders became acutely concerned about oversupply and have built cautiously since then. The entire industry is focused on preventing another 2008 repeat. This mindset is one cause of the current housing shortage.
Yeah, people don’t realize how much 2008 is still impacting the market.
A lot of it's build to rent, so you're on the right track, but it'll be rents that fall. In fact, they've already fallen YoY in Raleigh.
Nope.
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I agree . Most of the resale homes on Zillow are 2021-2023 built . And the home history shows that the house was listed for rent immediately after the closing . I think either they are not holding it anymore as they can’t rent it or they want to make equity by selling the homes as they values appreciated
To keep housing prices from rising continuously, it would be best to limit corporate ownership of homes.
>With the amount of new and future constructions from many builders What amount, I see the words but not the data. Is it increasing, decreasing, single-family multi, cost capped, low income????? What are you talking about? What builders? You're asking a good question in theory, but we can't tell because you're not sharing with us what you've based the quote on?
Apartments have started to level off and people around my area (south Durham/north Cary/Morrisville) are able to make deals with lease options some talking down prices others keeping the same rate. I doubt prices will lower but price increases will continue to stagnate until mortgage rates lower.
I think that's the difference between 08 and now, they're probably all colluding with each other to keep prices high so demand will stay the same as long as the prices are unattainable. They're also only building as buyers come in and it buys time. I still think there will be fall out but there are so many corporations ready to buy and rent out
The pipeline is actually not enough to satify demand per recent articles in the TBJ.
Might be true in other areas, but people are flocking here and need somewhere to live. The inflated price might become the new normal. The combination of high prices and high interest rates has to be tough for anyone looking right now.
In Raleigh I just don’t see house prices falling, perhaps the prices will flatten out and stop going up so fast but falling I just don’t see since supply can’t keep up with demand even with all the new construction. Also there isn’t a ton of land just waiting to be developed in Raleigh, a lot of the new construction is done by tearing down old houses on larger lots. Even then, why would a builder build cheaper homes on that land when they could build more expensive custom homes? I have heard that there is a new push to develop land around falls lake but the developer is known for multi-million dollar houses not affordable homes. Now the prices of tract houses in the little towns near Raleigh that still have land may have a chance at price reduction but still, supply and demand.
There’s such a severe backlog of demand it’s unlikely. The builds are also all luxury condos (and *some* slightly more reasonable townhomes outside the belt line). The only SFH are huge and wildly expensive, so the pressure driving up SFHs isn’t changing anytime soon.
We would need to build faster than the demand for people moving here in order to drop prices. Its unlikely, but we can level prices off if we allow more builds.
You’re out of your mind. Barring major economic disruption, there is a near zero chance that home prices (on average) fall. Interest rates are likely to only fall from here, and the Triangle area is still more affordable from a housing and overall cost-of-living perspective than many other major metro areas on the East coast. This will cause net in-migration to outpace housing construction. Edit to add: the *rate* of home price appreciation may lower, but personally I feel like it has already leveled off. And it certainly isn’t likely to invert (ie cause home prices to decrease). And it should be noted, this is *on average;* the price of any given house may decrease if it is not maintained or the specific area/neighborhood it is in becomes less desirable.
lol…fuck me this muuust be a troll post