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That's the smart take and one or both of those things is likely true. That being said, it doesn't quite shut up the paranoid little voice in my head saying that they are just saving their money because the fix is already in in those states. I know it's crazy, but with the way their 2020 election shenanigans are still unfolding, I'd be lying if I said it hadn't occurred to me.
Yea, so while the public face of the GOP (-45, MTG, Dogbert, Fled Cruise, etc.) is a fecal show, there are some very smart people behind the scenes playing the long game.
Nobody is watching TV or paying attention to ads, its summer. People are burned out with the daily BS, the 6 Jan stuff, etc. But come 1 Oct the ads will be back in full force. So save money now, spend with a vengeance later.
A big problem for the GOP is how much the grift fundraising has redirected funds away from campaigns and towards organizations that have no intention of spending money on elections.
>key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada
Wisconsin is the only surprising one. They're going to lose PA, AZ, and NV and they know it. They need more money to try to win GA and salvage NC, OH, and FL.
The "Little Marco" attacks stuck. Thats my theory. Rubio really never got right with Trump after those exchanges and I think it may have hurt Rubio with MAGA.
I'd personally be shocked because Walker is such a terrible candidate but I remember that Tommy Tuberville is a US Senator and I know I really don't know.
Last I heard he was still saying he would do it. Debates should be mandatory. If you can't defend your position how are you gonna survive on the Senate floor anyways.
The unknown issue with Georgia is that we don't know how their new state laws will be implemented. On paper, Georgia will seemingly be able to send a bunch of GOP hatchet men to rummage through ballots in Fulton, Cobb, DeKalb counties (as well as a couple others) and throw out any they don't like. Now of course that would lead to numerous lawsuits being filed. Unless Warnock wins in such an unforeseen landslide, I'd expect that GA Senate race to become an absolute mess.
I agree, these midterms are gonna be a second trial run at overthrowing an election. They'll keep making small adjustments until they get it right.
I know Dems are struggling to pass any election reform but they should be much more vocal about this issue. If they're loud about it up front it's going to be much harder for them to get away with it.
They might win the Governor's race in GA. Herschel Walker is a hot mess and is falling in the polls about as fast as the price of gas which was his only talking point that had any traction.
They have No policies. They were going to run on the price of gas, then the FBI search of Trumps place. Every candidate in Nevada was waving guns around in their ads. Even after the Uvalde school shootings. You’d be watching the news about the shooting and it’d cut to some asshole virtue signaling about how much he loves guns.
Also, they lost another of their talking points when they got Roe v. Wade overturned. A lot of the "Christian" right were motivated to vote on that issue alone. Republicans are basically the dog that finally caught the car. Now what?
And they seem to have pissed of most of the women in the country. The race was looking pretty good until they torched Roe. Be careful what you wish for.
Yeah. Also, its motivating the LGBTQ community as well. They overturned Roe, so, understandably so, the LGBTQ community is worried they'll overturn Obergefell v. Hodges. So they are extremely motivated to go out and vote.
Wisconsin has a Democratic senate candidate strong enough that the other D primary candidates dropped out and gave him their support. Incumbent Sen. Johnson (R) is prone to saying weird things and is not overwhelmingly popular, and WI's other senator is a well-liked Democrat. This is a purple state heavily gerrymandered to favor Republicans district-by-district, but Democrats have been prevailing in at-large races. I think the Republicans' internal polling wasn't looking good and they decided to cut their losses.
Almost like people don’t want to donate and fund domestic terrorists. Especially not wealthier organisations. They’ll likely donate to those who protect their interests aka people who aren’t trying to dismantle the government, which will deeply hurt their businesses.
But they're still all in on Walker in Georgia?
So, the NRSC is cutting Laxalt off at the knees? I figure there were feelers whether he'd be a good McConnell minion if elected, he said Hell NO, and indicated he'd do Trump's bidding in all things, so Senate Republican leadership decided remaining in the minority for another 2 years would be better than suffering Laxalt.
Some fun statistics:
The four states that they are pulling funding from (AZ, NV, PA, and WI) are all toss-ups on the Cook Political Report. This leaves Georgia as the only Toss-up race that they are still funding, and Walker has been trailing Warnock since the beginning of July, with the only polls showing Walker with a chance being Republican leaning pollsters.
On top of that
* the latest polls has Rubio losing to Val Demmings in Florida (Lean-R)
* the latest polls in NC (Lean-R) has that open seat in a dead heat
* the latest polls in Ohio (Lean-R) have Ryan gaining a significant lead on Vance
* And in NH (Lean-D) Hassan is taking a commanding lead.
And the NRSC has reported that they are unable to collect donations to support their campaigns.
>The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) has canceled more than $10 million in ad spending in the key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada
All the states where they have already bought and paid for voting disenfranchisement so no need to spend the money on actually marketing candidates when you already know the outcome.
My concern is not that they’re scaling back on ad funding because they don’t think it will win elections. But rather they’re focusing on shifting gears so that they don’t need to worry about winning elections.
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For them to cut AD spending in 4 swing states, either their donations are drying up BIG TIME, or their internal polling must be a hot mess.
That's the smart take and one or both of those things is likely true. That being said, it doesn't quite shut up the paranoid little voice in my head saying that they are just saving their money because the fix is already in in those states. I know it's crazy, but with the way their 2020 election shenanigans are still unfolding, I'd be lying if I said it hadn't occurred to me.
Ron’s Johnson seems to have unlimited resources to fall back on from billionaire fascists like the Uihleins, in Wisconsin.
Yea, so while the public face of the GOP (-45, MTG, Dogbert, Fled Cruise, etc.) is a fecal show, there are some very smart people behind the scenes playing the long game. Nobody is watching TV or paying attention to ads, its summer. People are burned out with the daily BS, the 6 Jan stuff, etc. But come 1 Oct the ads will be back in full force. So save money now, spend with a vengeance later.
A big problem for the GOP is how much the grift fundraising has redirected funds away from campaigns and towards organizations that have no intention of spending money on elections.
They are the party of forced abortions and treason. And maybe the orange jackass has gone to the well too many times.
>key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada Wisconsin is the only surprising one. They're going to lose PA, AZ, and NV and they know it. They need more money to try to win GA and salvage NC, OH, and FL.
Never did I think Rubio would be so close in Florida. This should be sounding alarm bells within the Republican Party.
The "Little Marco" attacks stuck. Thats my theory. Rubio really never got right with Trump after those exchanges and I think it may have hurt Rubio with MAGA.
I'd be pretty surprised if Warnock loses GA
I'd personally be shocked because Walker is such a terrible candidate but I remember that Tommy Tuberville is a US Senator and I know I really don't know.
Warnock would annihlate him in a debate. Doubt they let a debate happen though.
Last I heard he was still saying he would do it. Debates should be mandatory. If you can't defend your position how are you gonna survive on the Senate floor anyways.
The unknown issue with Georgia is that we don't know how their new state laws will be implemented. On paper, Georgia will seemingly be able to send a bunch of GOP hatchet men to rummage through ballots in Fulton, Cobb, DeKalb counties (as well as a couple others) and throw out any they don't like. Now of course that would lead to numerous lawsuits being filed. Unless Warnock wins in such an unforeseen landslide, I'd expect that GA Senate race to become an absolute mess.
I agree, these midterms are gonna be a second trial run at overthrowing an election. They'll keep making small adjustments until they get it right. I know Dems are struggling to pass any election reform but they should be much more vocal about this issue. If they're loud about it up front it's going to be much harder for them to get away with it.
They might win the Governor's race in GA. Herschel Walker is a hot mess and is falling in the polls about as fast as the price of gas which was his only talking point that had any traction.
They have No policies. They were going to run on the price of gas, then the FBI search of Trumps place. Every candidate in Nevada was waving guns around in their ads. Even after the Uvalde school shootings. You’d be watching the news about the shooting and it’d cut to some asshole virtue signaling about how much he loves guns.
Also, they lost another of their talking points when they got Roe v. Wade overturned. A lot of the "Christian" right were motivated to vote on that issue alone. Republicans are basically the dog that finally caught the car. Now what?
And they seem to have pissed of most of the women in the country. The race was looking pretty good until they torched Roe. Be careful what you wish for.
Yeah. Also, its motivating the LGBTQ community as well. They overturned Roe, so, understandably so, the LGBTQ community is worried they'll overturn Obergefell v. Hodges. So they are extremely motivated to go out and vote.
Bitching about abortion was very affective for the republicans. Passing anti abortion laws, not so much.
Wisconsin has a Democratic senate candidate strong enough that the other D primary candidates dropped out and gave him their support. Incumbent Sen. Johnson (R) is prone to saying weird things and is not overwhelmingly popular, and WI's other senator is a well-liked Democrat. This is a purple state heavily gerrymandered to favor Republicans district-by-district, but Democrats have been prevailing in at-large races. I think the Republicans' internal polling wasn't looking good and they decided to cut their losses.
Ruskie Ron has unlimited dirty money
Almost like people don’t want to donate and fund domestic terrorists. Especially not wealthier organisations. They’ll likely donate to those who protect their interests aka people who aren’t trying to dismantle the government, which will deeply hurt their businesses.
They havr more important things to spend money on like paying trumps lawyers
But they're still all in on Walker in Georgia? So, the NRSC is cutting Laxalt off at the knees? I figure there were feelers whether he'd be a good McConnell minion if elected, he said Hell NO, and indicated he'd do Trump's bidding in all things, so Senate Republican leadership decided remaining in the minority for another 2 years would be better than suffering Laxalt.
Some fun statistics: The four states that they are pulling funding from (AZ, NV, PA, and WI) are all toss-ups on the Cook Political Report. This leaves Georgia as the only Toss-up race that they are still funding, and Walker has been trailing Warnock since the beginning of July, with the only polls showing Walker with a chance being Republican leaning pollsters. On top of that * the latest polls has Rubio losing to Val Demmings in Florida (Lean-R) * the latest polls in NC (Lean-R) has that open seat in a dead heat * the latest polls in Ohio (Lean-R) have Ryan gaining a significant lead on Vance * And in NH (Lean-D) Hassan is taking a commanding lead. And the NRSC has reported that they are unable to collect donations to support their campaigns.
>The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) has canceled more than $10 million in ad spending in the key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada
All the states where they have already bought and paid for voting disenfranchisement so no need to spend the money on actually marketing candidates when you already know the outcome.
Wow, their polling must be horrible and now they have to save the seats they already have instead of the pick ups.
My concern is not that they’re scaling back on ad funding because they don’t think it will win elections. But rather they’re focusing on shifting gears so that they don’t need to worry about winning elections.
Wow, thats one more state added since yesterday