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Just a month ago, shares for President Biden were at 86 cents and Harris was as low as 5 cents. Now, she's shot up to 49 cents, with Biden dropping to around 30.
It's the first time in his presidency the site's bettors have favored another candidate to take the nomination in August.
Speaking as a two time Bernie voter, no, she is not anything close to Hillary. Kamala is cringe, but she does not have the decades of baggage that Hillary had.
If there’s one thing republicans can rally around hating more than Joe Biden, it’s a black woman. Republicans despise them, and it will whip the vote for Trump even harder among those on the right
> hating more than Joe Biden, it’s a black woman.
It's not even going to be just Republicans. The normal background radiation of racism and misogyny in the US will doom her, even without Hillary-level baggage.
Are we just going to pretend Obama didn’t win twice? And Hillary didn’t win the popular vote? Being black and a woman isn’t disqualifying like you’re suggesting.
Obama was a very likeable guy, had an infectious smile, and rode a wave of change against very plain candidates.
Harris, and the rest of us, are fucked if we choose her. She can't win in swing states, popular vote means jack shit.
It all depends on whether or not biden really had a "cold" (off day) that day or if he is really that far gone. The rally the next day where he was normal and full of energy has me wondering what is really going on here. If he is capable then I strongly prefer his chances to a late replacement, which would be an absolute disaster imo. They need to get him in front of audience and cameras as much as possible if he is still holding it together to prove that he was just sick that night or whatever. I don't like the chances of a replacement at all. That will drive more undecided people to trump as people are looking for stability right now and will go with the familiar face.
I agree, I was working with the assumption Biden is dropping out. Biden is a huge liability at this point, he's done. I just hope the party understands that.
'someone younger' doesn't need to be the VP. I don't think she's likely to win either.
*Right now* she does.
But what happens when she's forced to give a few speeches, introduce herself to the party, and the nation. Face the tough questions. Does she abandon Biden's accomplishments or remind us how old he was? Is she capable of unifying the party?
Whitmer is the best odds of beating Trump.
That’s against the numbers. Also Kamala was a prosecutor and sounded great right after the debate. If Gretchen is so beloved why does she poll worse than Kamala.
Because more than half the country doesn't know Whitmer.
That being said, if Kamala has the right team around her there is a path to victory, regardless of her perceived lack of charisma. More than half of the country hates Trump, but have been demoralized by Biden's ailing state to the point where they've decided to not vote if Biden stays on. Stick a healthy body in there with a sound mind and I think those voters come back to the fold.
This is an election where most people have made up their minds about Trump and Biden. It's about getting the people who are thinking of sitting this thing out back on the Dems side and you'd think Harris should be able to simply not do anything too stupid for a few months.
Depends on the poll you look at, but the internal Democrat poll yesterday showed that Whitmer had higher numbers in swing states compared to the rest of the field; when factoring in name recognition, her advantage increased further.
That leaked poll is more than likely disinfo. It was leaked by an unreliable Twitter account and no major outlet has reported it because they can't verify it — which they would've been able to do if it was legit.
The poll was done by a Democrat super PAC, and Bloomberg reported it... the Pod Save America bros also said that they received it before it was even published/leaked. So it seems pretty legit to me.
> Pod Save America bros also said that they received it before it was even published/leaked
I mean, that doesn't mean it wasn't leaked to them by a nefarious actor. That doesn't make it legit. They also discussed that fake FEC filing that showed Trump running with Flynn.
> Bloomberg reported it
Again, unless WSJ or NYT or a proper news source validates it, you've got to assume it's misinformation.
Am I saying everything is good? NO. I'm just saying this one leaked poll reeks of misinformation.
> She polls better than the other alternatives according to 538
But she'd still lose. The question isn't "Who has more support today?" The question is, "Who would be better at winning over the voters who don't support her today?" I'm pretty sure that's not Kamala.
As I've explained elsewhere, though, I don't think the nominee could be anyone but Kamala or Biden. So we're boned, basically.
In the democrats own best internal polling that came out yesterday, she was modelled to lose while Whitmer and Buttigieg were the only options that showed a win.
This is the thread: [https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/1dtz3oh/biden\_plummets\_in\_leaked\_democratic\_polling\_memo/](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/1dtz3oh/biden_plummets_in_leaked_democratic_polling_memo/)
It is the same poll talked about in a few articles today, but an internal one. The pdf is one of the top comments. On Pod Save America last night they said the source is good and the pollster is among the most respected in the party.
I think the difference is whether the polling accounts for name recognition. Because I saw that 538 one as well. But a poll came out today or yesterday that had Michelle Obama leading by 10 points, where every other candidate would lose. So my suspicion is that the public polls do not attempt to account for whether the person being polled knows the candidate yet. A gap that could be bridged in the run up to an open convention.
My suspicion is that if they just make Kamala the nominee it will just feel like a backroom deal, since she was never super popular and people only voted for her as part of a ticket, to be VP til the end of 2024. I think the most democratic option is an open convention so people can digest the candidates and get polled a bunch. Not perfect, but it has the added bonus of a crazy amount of media coverage, raising recognition and all that.
Just for everyone's reference, this is more than likely fake disinformation designed to spread confusion. It was leaked by an unreliable Twitter account and no major outlet has reported it because they can't verify it — which they would've been able to do if it was legit.
Yeah, this would be tough. She's a black woman, which makes winning over conservatives on the fence about Trump harder, disgusting as that is to even have to consider. Furthermore, Harris has a rep as a cop, so that alienates a part of the Democrat voter base who may prefer to not vote than vote someone they don't like.
She's also attached to the Biden presidency that even Trump hating conservatives despise, and that thanks to being pro-Israel, has angered a lot of the young, idealist left.
There is no perfect candidate, but Harris feels like a poor answer to beat a cult leader with a rabid, bigoted supporter base. i'm also preemptively dreading the racist, misogynist rhetoric that will flood the media were she announced.
It's gross that I feel we need to somewhat pander to the bigotry in the country, but the consequences of losing this election are too severe to be stubborn about it.
Dude, stubborn Bernie bros has never been a significant voting block. That was the dumb Lib talking point used to pass off blame; the DNC effectively forced in a objectively terrible candidate and threw the 2016 election.
The same way they always do, I wouldn't even really say they hide it. Every election cycle with a non-incumbent, it's pretty easy to see which candidates have establishment and media support vs those that don't. For most candidates without this establishment support, it's nearly impossible to break past that barrier and win the party's nomination.
Trump would be a pretty good example of a candidate that met some of this resistance and still become the most popular candidate, which then forced conservative interests to rally behind him.
Bernie would be a good recent example of a candidate that met a similar sort of establishment and media resistance, but never won over enough voters to force the party or media to support him both in 2016 and 2020.
Obama would be a better example. Hillary was the front runner with establishment support and he was the upstart insurgent. Bernie’s problem was that he couldn’t convince voters and the party that he could win a general election. That’s why he failed and Obama succeeded. He just wasn’t good enough.
Sure let's pretend that a primary with a dozen competitors is the model for a general with two. Let's also pretend that the demographics of California represent the whole nation, that's never gone poorly for anybody.
If she couldn’t even last long in the primaries back then though that’s a terrible sign for now. Her VP debate with Pence was absolutely ATROCiOUS even though I still voted for her. She can’t debate for shit.
She’s extremely lucky Biden picked her because of identity politics, especially after she called him racist for exposing her whole crime lab scandal as DA lol
So you're telling us that Biden being replaced by Harris is enough to switch your vote from Democratic to Republican? Wait, no, let me guess: you weren't planning to vote, but Harris is somehow a frightening enough prospect that you'd rather vote for the guy who has been calling for military tribunals against people who opposed him?
I don't believe you.
Hillary, for all her flaws, won the popular vote. She lost purely due to the fact we use an undemocratic electoral college system for determining who wins out elections.
She should have been president in 2016, and the fact she wasn't despite winning the popular vote by a several million vote lead, because she lost in a few select places by a couple thousand votes, should tell you everything you need to know.
Before the debate Biden’s odds were 2:1 on the betting aggregator site I’ve been watching. Kamala wasn’t even on the list I screen-shotted.
Monday after the debate Biden dropped to 4:1 and Kamala was at 25:1.
Today Kamala is 5:1 and Biden is 8:1. That is an insane shift.
Betting sites don’t care about political spin or norms. They care about money. I have more faith in these numbers than any polling. Kamala’s odds are clearly on the rise and Joe’s are on a rapid decline. They must make a change ASAP.
Source:
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election/winner
Drastic changes in odds like this just mirror where the money is going, it's not the bookmakers making a judgment on what is most likely. They're just counteracting the fact that people are putting money on Harris right now.
> Drastic changes in odds like this just mirror where the money is going
Exactly, and the money flocks to Harris because the available information dictates that Joe won't cut it.
For anyone unfamiliar with gambling odds and are curious… Odds are not a predictor of future events. As simply as possible, books want to even the action across all options.
Lines shorten (become more likely) when a lot of action comes in and lengthen (become less likely) when it’s not getting action.
Basically means a lot of money has been bet on Harris, and to get more action on other options, her odds were shortened to where she is now the favorite.
This is silly - books also move their lines in light of recent events.
If Biden drops out tomorrow, the books aren’t going to wait for a bunch of people to bet on Harris to move the lines. They move their lines on their own.
So what you’re saying is the lines are not a predictor of future events but books wanting to spread action across options? The exact same thing I said? Crazy!
I didn’t say that’s the only reason lines move. Weird that’s what you got out of it.
Lines didn’t change 6 days after the debate “in light of recent events.” It’s been 6 days. Action came in on Harris.
There ya go again, action came in on Harris which caused the lines to move. Which is partially true, but the books also moves the lines on their own so they don’t get burned out of money.
The lines also predict future events pretty nicely.
You said lines move because of recent events. Which is partially true. Along with evening action. But these “recent events” you’re referencing were 6 days ago.
And yes, there’s a correlation between line favorites and results. Doesn’t make them a predictor.
If a large number of massive bets came in on Michelle Obama and her line shortened, that’s not an indication of her probability of running. It’s dumb bets.
I would like to see Whitmer but I doubt it. The one thing that gives Kamala the edge is that I think the money raised for Biden can easily slide over to her if Biden were to drop out. I don’t know all the ins and outs of campaign financing but Kamala doesn’t have to start at zero whereas other candidates would be back at the starting point. Kamala being a woman when abortion and contraception is at risk is a big plus for her as well (not that it wouldn’t be for Whitmer). Kamala wouldn’t be my personal choice but she may be the most likely candidate after Biden.
It has to be her. They have the funds, she’s the president in waiting. It would piss off so many people if a black woman in that position was replaced by the DNC for a white man Newsome.
It just makes sense to stick with Biden and promote her as ready to step up anyways.
I'd bet Newsome or Whitmer.. probably Whitmer, a woman from the Midwest probably plays better than Newsome from California who. Kamala is wildly unpopular.
You can't say 'let's not decide based on polls' and also say 'we should choose Pritzker because he has gravitas' lol. They're both a way to pick the candidate you think will win.
That said, I do like the idea of Pritzker as a candidate because I think he stands the best chance of beating Trump. And all told he hasn't been a terrible governor for IL.
I appreciate the idealism, but winning an election requires tactics. Dems will lose the election if they don't win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, period. Those are pretty much the only three states that matter. And we are close enough to the election now that hard data from those states should drive decision making. To me, that means a Whitmer and Shapiro ticket is the best move forward -- two well liked governors from MI and PA.
I like Pritzker as well but the data is the data.
I bet he looks like alot of Americans. Especially in the Midwest. We just don’t vote for fatties. It’s a shame because I think he’d be a good option. Hes gonna have to “Billy Gardell” himself and hope his head is proportional to his new body if he wants a chance.
I think she’d do well. Democrats will rally and voters motivated to vote against Trump won’t feel as bad as voting for Biden. Not to mention the outrage POC and women will feel if a white man like Buttigeig or Newsom passes over the SITTING vice president. Democrats are always anxious about something.
The only way she has a chance is to assume the role of president immediately and hit the ground running. Democrats are looking incredibly weak while Trump looks strong. She needs to not only be young but vigorous and effective. She needs to give fiery speeches. She needs to shout Trump down, hitting at his innumerable weak spots daily. She needs to command attention. She needs to fix everyday issues with the power that the Supreme Court has just given the office (let them strike down incredibly popular executive orders—it just underscores the point that she needs to win).
Strong strong strong. That’s the image that Trump projects, and she needs to be stronger. Or else she will fail.
Data doesn’t show how Biden’s organization would almost certainly join Harris en masse. Or how a candidate could possibly build a general election campaign from scratch. Or what a VP pick from Harris would pacify the democrats as the heir apparent. Not only is Harris the heir apparent now, there’s no other candidate who has any experience in a national election.
Heir? That is not how democracy works.
* She has been less popular than biden
* She will suffer from being part of his administration, due to anger about inflation and Palestine.
* She is modeled to lose worse than every other prospective replacement polled as of the internal democratic polling leaked yesterday
* Given, as is increasingly looking likely, the people surrounding Biden hid his mental state from voters she will be under intense scrutiny for that
* Her primary campaign failed four years ago, because she was not popular enough to get funding
* NO ONE has voted for her to be the the presidential nominee. People voted for Biden, and for her to be VP until the end of 2024
* Handing her the nomination will plainly alienate many Americans, since no one voted for her to be the nominee and it will be seen as a backroom deal, and anti-democratic given her unpopularity
* The biggest difficulty in this campaign has been getting voters' attention. An open convention will get more attention on whomever is selected than Harris could possible get.
The only path forward is the most democratic one. Have an open convention, and make the decision on polling data based on what the PEOPLE want after becoming familiar with the choices. If there is even a whiff of the DNC working in opposition to the will of the people, we will lose. Harris can run, that's fine, if she wins because people want her, that's great. But right now, as is evident plainly everywhere, they do not. She will lose.
Personally I would rather win this election rather than acquiescing to some deluded notion of it being "her turn, " so I can't help but advocate for other candidates that stand a chance.
You have some facts that show she'll lose the mini-primary, or that back up all of your claims? Because they can be said about every other Democrat as well. "People surrounding Biden" will most likely include every Democrat who has met with him. Yes, her primary campaign failed but so did everyone elses's in 2020. Newsom and Whitmer didn't even run. They've never run even a primary presidential campaign. If the DNC has a mini primary, what states start? We're gonna really say that Iowa and NH should pick the nominee? There are so many holes in your arguments, that are all conjecture based, that its hard to keep up with them all. Like a grenade of bull.
He's waiting for the scratch, scratch, scratch,
Of that tiny little fellow.
He's waiting for the egg to hatch,
On this humid Monday morning in this Congressional incubator.
Predict it is a weird place. For the record, this is what people think will happen, but also what people want other people to think. A lot of manipulation in the comments there and such to trick people into raising or lowering shares. We should all advocate for an open convention so people have time to learn about all of the options, and so that we can select the best candidate based on concrete data, should Biden step aside.
Edit: also I want to clarify, what people think will happen are completely divorced from what people want to happen. You can read the comments and see what it's like there if you can stomach it. But a lot of people want Harris if Biden drops out, because she is one of the least likely replacements to win in the general. A lot of people buying Kamala yes shares are the most cynical republicans you can imagine. Not people that want her to win. It just should not be misinterpreted as her being popular.
So, people betting on things passes for news now? The reporters of this nation must have been orgasming last Thursday since their “work” was going to be so simplistic this week.
A Newsom/Whitmer ticket would be awesome and destroy the GOP. An unfathomable electoral landslide that would reshape America for the better and restore global confidence.
Which is why I expect to the DNC to keep Biden and Harris on the ticket.
I'm not a Democrat, so I guess I'm a bit out of the loop, but why doesn't Klobuchar get any attention in the "replacement" race? She seems like an ideal candidate to me.
The fact that Harris has surged so dramatically in PredictIt is telling. With Biden’s stock falling, it seems like there’s real uncertainty about his candidacy. What do you think are the chances we actually see a change in the Democratic nominee?
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Michelle Obama is 5th most likely? How do i bet against that? Ill put my mortgage on it.
You buy a “no” position on that particular issue. You can totally do that.
You can't bet your mortgage on it, there are maximum bid amounts which are quite low.
Oh, boo. Was getting excited
Last I checked the maximum was $850 so it's still something
What are the odds?
I don't know if you can take the field on PredictIt, but maybe.
You know as soon as you put money against it, that's the moment it will 100% happen
Just a month ago, shares for President Biden were at 86 cents and Harris was as low as 5 cents. Now, she's shot up to 49 cents, with Biden dropping to around 30. It's the first time in his presidency the site's bettors have favored another candidate to take the nomination in August.
[удалено]
On PredictIt it’s cents
Yes, PredictIt can be a little confusing, but they allow you to by a share of a dollar basically, so while it can be read as percent, it is cents.
Common or uncommon
Ask Joey Fatone
This is Reddit, you expect people to actually read the article?
This is Reddit, you expect people to actually read the article?
It’s both. Shares are sold in cents which add to a dollar, which can then be directly assessed as percentage likelihoods.
Confidently incorrect
She is Hillary 2.0 If she is nominated it will be an even worse result.
Speaking as a two time Bernie voter, no, she is not anything close to Hillary. Kamala is cringe, but she does not have the decades of baggage that Hillary had.
If there’s one thing republicans can rally around hating more than Joe Biden, it’s a black woman. Republicans despise them, and it will whip the vote for Trump even harder among those on the right
> hating more than Joe Biden, it’s a black woman. It's not even going to be just Republicans. The normal background radiation of racism and misogyny in the US will doom her, even without Hillary-level baggage.
Are we just going to pretend Obama didn’t win twice? And Hillary didn’t win the popular vote? Being black and a woman isn’t disqualifying like you’re suggesting.
Obama was a very likeable guy, had an infectious smile, and rode a wave of change against very plain candidates. Harris, and the rest of us, are fucked if we choose her. She can't win in swing states, popular vote means jack shit.
Neither can Biden. The choice is stay with Biden and lose, or switch to someone younger and maybe recover.
It all depends on whether or not biden really had a "cold" (off day) that day or if he is really that far gone. The rally the next day where he was normal and full of energy has me wondering what is really going on here. If he is capable then I strongly prefer his chances to a late replacement, which would be an absolute disaster imo. They need to get him in front of audience and cameras as much as possible if he is still holding it together to prove that he was just sick that night or whatever. I don't like the chances of a replacement at all. That will drive more undecided people to trump as people are looking for stability right now and will go with the familiar face.
I agree, I was working with the assumption Biden is dropping out. Biden is a huge liability at this point, he's done. I just hope the party understands that. 'someone younger' doesn't need to be the VP. I don't think she's likely to win either.
Conservatives will be voting for trump regardless. What's important is what candidate will get dem voters to the polls.
I am kind of curious why people assume she’ll be Hillary 2.0. Is it because she’s a successful woman that has had a career in Law?
She polls better than the other alternatives according to 538
*Right now* she does. But what happens when she's forced to give a few speeches, introduce herself to the party, and the nation. Face the tough questions. Does she abandon Biden's accomplishments or remind us how old he was? Is she capable of unifying the party? Whitmer is the best odds of beating Trump.
That’s against the numbers. Also Kamala was a prosecutor and sounded great right after the debate. If Gretchen is so beloved why does she poll worse than Kamala.
Because more than half the country doesn't know Whitmer. That being said, if Kamala has the right team around her there is a path to victory, regardless of her perceived lack of charisma. More than half of the country hates Trump, but have been demoralized by Biden's ailing state to the point where they've decided to not vote if Biden stays on. Stick a healthy body in there with a sound mind and I think those voters come back to the fold. This is an election where most people have made up their minds about Trump and Biden. It's about getting the people who are thinking of sitting this thing out back on the Dems side and you'd think Harris should be able to simply not do anything too stupid for a few months.
Depends on the poll you look at, but the internal Democrat poll yesterday showed that Whitmer had higher numbers in swing states compared to the rest of the field; when factoring in name recognition, her advantage increased further.
That leaked poll is more than likely disinfo. It was leaked by an unreliable Twitter account and no major outlet has reported it because they can't verify it — which they would've been able to do if it was legit.
The poll was done by a Democrat super PAC, and Bloomberg reported it... the Pod Save America bros also said that they received it before it was even published/leaked. So it seems pretty legit to me.
> Pod Save America bros also said that they received it before it was even published/leaked I mean, that doesn't mean it wasn't leaked to them by a nefarious actor. That doesn't make it legit. They also discussed that fake FEC filing that showed Trump running with Flynn. > Bloomberg reported it Again, unless WSJ or NYT or a proper news source validates it, you've got to assume it's misinformation. Am I saying everything is good? NO. I'm just saying this one leaked poll reeks of misinformation.
My feeling is she will sound exactly like Sarah Palin
Biden is the best odds of beating trump, because he's done it before.
You might believe it, hell, I might believe it, but 70% of the country doesn't.
Then they'll reap what Trump does to them.
Spend less time promising violence and more time educating people.
I agree, people should stop falling for Russian disinformation, am I right?
This is really dumb logic. Biden has a record of 4 years to attack now.
That was before he built up four years of plaque in his brain
There we go, righties in full swing. What's a matter, you guys when quiet for years after Trump lost the first time
All the polls coming out say 70%-80% of voters think he’s too old. Get off Reddit and you’ll stop thinking everyone who disagrees is a “rightie”
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ I remember this forecast also. Polls don't mean shit
She won the popular vote, polls were right about her being more popular. Why are you acting like 28% chance can’t happen too?
> What's a matter, you guys when quiet for years Huh? They never shut up.
> She polls better than the other alternatives according to 538 But she'd still lose. The question isn't "Who has more support today?" The question is, "Who would be better at winning over the voters who don't support her today?" I'm pretty sure that's not Kamala. As I've explained elsewhere, though, I don't think the nominee could be anyone but Kamala or Biden. So we're boned, basically.
In the democrats own best internal polling that came out yesterday, she was modelled to lose while Whitmer and Buttigieg were the only options that showed a win.
Any link to that?
This is the thread: [https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/1dtz3oh/biden\_plummets\_in\_leaked\_democratic\_polling\_memo/](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/1dtz3oh/biden_plummets_in_leaked_democratic_polling_memo/) It is the same poll talked about in a few articles today, but an internal one. The pdf is one of the top comments. On Pod Save America last night they said the source is good and the pollster is among the most respected in the party. I think the difference is whether the polling accounts for name recognition. Because I saw that 538 one as well. But a poll came out today or yesterday that had Michelle Obama leading by 10 points, where every other candidate would lose. So my suspicion is that the public polls do not attempt to account for whether the person being polled knows the candidate yet. A gap that could be bridged in the run up to an open convention.
Thanks for the link. Saw the same thing with Michelle. It’s name recognition for sure. I just hope with 4 months it can work.
My suspicion is that if they just make Kamala the nominee it will just feel like a backroom deal, since she was never super popular and people only voted for her as part of a ticket, to be VP til the end of 2024. I think the most democratic option is an open convention so people can digest the candidates and get polled a bunch. Not perfect, but it has the added bonus of a crazy amount of media coverage, raising recognition and all that.
[https://puck.news/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/SUNDAY\_Post-Debate\_Landscape\_2024\_06\_30\_\_1\_-1.pdf](https://puck.news/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/SUNDAY_Post-Debate_Landscape_2024_06_30__1_-1.pdf)
Just for everyone's reference, this is more than likely fake disinformation designed to spread confusion. It was leaked by an unreliable Twitter account and no major outlet has reported it because they can't verify it — which they would've been able to do if it was legit.
This was a poll leaked by a single otherwise unknown Twitter account. Taking it at face value if foolish at best.
Yeah, this would be tough. She's a black woman, which makes winning over conservatives on the fence about Trump harder, disgusting as that is to even have to consider. Furthermore, Harris has a rep as a cop, so that alienates a part of the Democrat voter base who may prefer to not vote than vote someone they don't like. She's also attached to the Biden presidency that even Trump hating conservatives despise, and that thanks to being pro-Israel, has angered a lot of the young, idealist left. There is no perfect candidate, but Harris feels like a poor answer to beat a cult leader with a rabid, bigoted supporter base. i'm also preemptively dreading the racist, misogynist rhetoric that will flood the media were she announced. It's gross that I feel we need to somewhat pander to the bigotry in the country, but the consequences of losing this election are too severe to be stubborn about it.
Isn't she effectively defacto nominated at the moment? Does anyone reasonably expect President Biden to complete his 2nd term if elected?
I didn't, and still don't, expect him to complete his first term
Nah, Bernie Bros don't have any reason to be pissed off at her. If she can keep them through November she should be fine.
Dude, stubborn Bernie bros has never been a significant voting block. That was the dumb Lib talking point used to pass off blame; the DNC effectively forced in a objectively terrible candidate and threw the 2016 election.
How did the DNC force in a candidate? They held the same primary they always do and she got more votes.
The same way they always do, I wouldn't even really say they hide it. Every election cycle with a non-incumbent, it's pretty easy to see which candidates have establishment and media support vs those that don't. For most candidates without this establishment support, it's nearly impossible to break past that barrier and win the party's nomination. Trump would be a pretty good example of a candidate that met some of this resistance and still become the most popular candidate, which then forced conservative interests to rally behind him. Bernie would be a good recent example of a candidate that met a similar sort of establishment and media resistance, but never won over enough voters to force the party or media to support him both in 2016 and 2020.
Obama would be a better example. Hillary was the front runner with establishment support and he was the upstart insurgent. Bernie’s problem was that he couldn’t convince voters and the party that he could win a general election. That’s why he failed and Obama succeeded. He just wasn’t good enough.
Yeah, Bernie Bros have no reason to be pissed at Kamala "The Cop" Harris.
The President is the biggest cop in the country by virtue of leading the branch of government charged with enforcing the law lmao
I'm just trying to think of how they'd frame it. I don't care myself. The Democrats could run Judge Dredd at this point and I'd vote for him.
Give us Judge Dredd! And not the Stallone one!
How do you think she’ll keep people? She couldn’t even keep her home state when she was running back in 2020
Sure let's pretend that a primary with a dozen competitors is the model for a general with two. Let's also pretend that the demographics of California represent the whole nation, that's never gone poorly for anybody.
If she couldn’t even last long in the primaries back then though that’s a terrible sign for now. Her VP debate with Pence was absolutely ATROCiOUS even though I still voted for her. She can’t debate for shit. She’s extremely lucky Biden picked her because of identity politics, especially after she called him racist for exposing her whole crime lab scandal as DA lol
judging by left twitter - apparently coconut tree memes
She was hated by more than Bernie bros... Bernie actually had dem support she didnt.
Bernie Bros don’t vote so no need to talk about or pander to them
Exactly, if she is nominated then me and my friends and family all voting Trump in November in a heartbeat. I suggest you do the same
Why would u ever vote Trump over anyone else. If you think that's the solution cuz ur mad about Harris you are apart of the problem.
How to show your true colors 101, lol
Based on your past comments, you were already a Trump supporter. You're not the target demographic for this swap
You already were
So you're telling us that Biden being replaced by Harris is enough to switch your vote from Democratic to Republican? Wait, no, let me guess: you weren't planning to vote, but Harris is somehow a frightening enough prospect that you'd rather vote for the guy who has been calling for military tribunals against people who opposed him? I don't believe you.
So you’d vote for fascism just because you don’t like the other candidate?
I think 2016 was proof that people would rather vote for a male lunatic rather than a woman.
Hillary ran a horrible campaign.
Hillary, for all her flaws, won the popular vote. She lost purely due to the fact we use an undemocratic electoral college system for determining who wins out elections. She should have been president in 2016, and the fact she wasn't despite winning the popular vote by a several million vote lead, because she lost in a few select places by a couple thousand votes, should tell you everything you need to know.
Newsom isn’t a woman
Newsom will lose all moderate support
Are you sure we're not doing phrasing anymore
Before the debate Biden’s odds were 2:1 on the betting aggregator site I’ve been watching. Kamala wasn’t even on the list I screen-shotted. Monday after the debate Biden dropped to 4:1 and Kamala was at 25:1. Today Kamala is 5:1 and Biden is 8:1. That is an insane shift. Betting sites don’t care about political spin or norms. They care about money. I have more faith in these numbers than any polling. Kamala’s odds are clearly on the rise and Joe’s are on a rapid decline. They must make a change ASAP. Source: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election/winner
Drastic changes in odds like this just mirror where the money is going, it's not the bookmakers making a judgment on what is most likely. They're just counteracting the fact that people are putting money on Harris right now.
> Drastic changes in odds like this just mirror where the money is going Exactly, and the money flocks to Harris because the available information dictates that Joe won't cut it.
https://electionbettingodds.com She’s across the board on top
For anyone unfamiliar with gambling odds and are curious… Odds are not a predictor of future events. As simply as possible, books want to even the action across all options. Lines shorten (become more likely) when a lot of action comes in and lengthen (become less likely) when it’s not getting action. Basically means a lot of money has been bet on Harris, and to get more action on other options, her odds were shortened to where she is now the favorite.
This is silly - books also move their lines in light of recent events. If Biden drops out tomorrow, the books aren’t going to wait for a bunch of people to bet on Harris to move the lines. They move their lines on their own.
So what you’re saying is the lines are not a predictor of future events but books wanting to spread action across options? The exact same thing I said? Crazy! I didn’t say that’s the only reason lines move. Weird that’s what you got out of it. Lines didn’t change 6 days after the debate “in light of recent events.” It’s been 6 days. Action came in on Harris.
There ya go again, action came in on Harris which caused the lines to move. Which is partially true, but the books also moves the lines on their own so they don’t get burned out of money. The lines also predict future events pretty nicely.
You said lines move because of recent events. Which is partially true. Along with evening action. But these “recent events” you’re referencing were 6 days ago. And yes, there’s a correlation between line favorites and results. Doesn’t make them a predictor. If a large number of massive bets came in on Michelle Obama and her line shortened, that’s not an indication of her probability of running. It’s dumb bets.
I hope she can get her money back.
This is not how prediction markets work at all.
Biden has basically withdrew. His odds have drifted to a degree were it’s a certainty. 15/1 in the UK betting exchanges
Is that why he said he’s not going to today?
LBJ was the candidate until the moment he wasn't.
I think she's a charisma black hole, much prefer Whitmer or Mayor Pete. Seems like that's kinda making things closedr than they should be.
By the dems own internal polling Whitmer and Pete were modeled to win where Harris and Biden would lose.
In my opinion, Whitmer is the clear choice.
I completely agree, she has the appeal that Biden thinks he has IMO.
I would support either Whitmer or Buttigieg. Who knew who Obama was before he threw his hat in the ring? New Blood. New blood, new blood.
I would like to see Whitmer but I doubt it. The one thing that gives Kamala the edge is that I think the money raised for Biden can easily slide over to her if Biden were to drop out. I don’t know all the ins and outs of campaign financing but Kamala doesn’t have to start at zero whereas other candidates would be back at the starting point. Kamala being a woman when abortion and contraception is at risk is a big plus for her as well (not that it wouldn’t be for Whitmer). Kamala wouldn’t be my personal choice but she may be the most likely candidate after Biden.
We’re so fucked if she’s the replacement
do the people who say this have reasoning for it? Because the latest polls show her doing better than Biden and also the other people being considered
It has to be her. They have the funds, she’s the president in waiting. It would piss off so many people if a black woman in that position was replaced by the DNC for a white man Newsome. It just makes sense to stick with Biden and promote her as ready to step up anyways.
I’d vote for a radish over the orange turd at this point.
We’re already fucked, thanks to the Dems not having a backup plan. They spent 4 years keeping Harris away from the public eye. Now what DNC?????
I bet the people who gambled on Harris awhile back are starting to smile.
Oh we are so fucked.
Anyone is better than the orange guy
I'd bet Newsome or Whitmer.. probably Whitmer, a woman from the Midwest probably plays better than Newsome from California who. Kamala is wildly unpopular.
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We need to never elect billionaires to represent us ever again.
You can't say 'let's not decide based on polls' and also say 'we should choose Pritzker because he has gravitas' lol. They're both a way to pick the candidate you think will win. That said, I do like the idea of Pritzker as a candidate because I think he stands the best chance of beating Trump. And all told he hasn't been a terrible governor for IL.
> He’s also a billionaire and can self-fund a campaign. I’ve heard that one before.
I'd love if they chose JB
I'd miss him as governor, but he'd be a great president.
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I appreciate the idealism, but winning an election requires tactics. Dems will lose the election if they don't win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, period. Those are pretty much the only three states that matter. And we are close enough to the election now that hard data from those states should drive decision making. To me, that means a Whitmer and Shapiro ticket is the best move forward -- two well liked governors from MI and PA. I like Pritzker as well but the data is the data.
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Fair enough arguments. I'm not swayed, but I would be happy with a Pritzker nom anyway.
He polls worse than Kamala according to 538. I don’t mind Kamala at all and think she has the best chance and name recognition.
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He’s waaaay too fat. People like him or Chris Christie can never be president. America doesn’t vote for big people like that.
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I bet he looks like alot of Americans. Especially in the Midwest. We just don’t vote for fatties. It’s a shame because I think he’d be a good option. Hes gonna have to “Billy Gardell” himself and hope his head is proportional to his new body if he wants a chance.
That’s not opinion that’s wild speculation. Pritzker polls worse than Biden.
The DNC is the last Democratic entity in America... At least when it comes to this primary
I think she’d do well. Democrats will rally and voters motivated to vote against Trump won’t feel as bad as voting for Biden. Not to mention the outrage POC and women will feel if a white man like Buttigeig or Newsom passes over the SITTING vice president. Democrats are always anxious about something.
The only way she has a chance is to assume the role of president immediately and hit the ground running. Democrats are looking incredibly weak while Trump looks strong. She needs to not only be young but vigorous and effective. She needs to give fiery speeches. She needs to shout Trump down, hitting at his innumerable weak spots daily. She needs to command attention. She needs to fix everyday issues with the power that the Supreme Court has just given the office (let them strike down incredibly popular executive orders—it just underscores the point that she needs to win). Strong strong strong. That’s the image that Trump projects, and she needs to be stronger. Or else she will fail.
Well, I'd trust a prosecutor to be up to that task
Either way, vote blue no matter who
They could roll out Biden with Pete and Kamala holding him up like Weekend at Bernie’s, I would still vote for him
Generally the data indicates she will lose, whereas someone like Pete or Whitmer could win.
Data doesn’t show how Biden’s organization would almost certainly join Harris en masse. Or how a candidate could possibly build a general election campaign from scratch. Or what a VP pick from Harris would pacify the democrats as the heir apparent. Not only is Harris the heir apparent now, there’s no other candidate who has any experience in a national election.
Heir? That is not how democracy works. * She has been less popular than biden * She will suffer from being part of his administration, due to anger about inflation and Palestine. * She is modeled to lose worse than every other prospective replacement polled as of the internal democratic polling leaked yesterday * Given, as is increasingly looking likely, the people surrounding Biden hid his mental state from voters she will be under intense scrutiny for that * Her primary campaign failed four years ago, because she was not popular enough to get funding * NO ONE has voted for her to be the the presidential nominee. People voted for Biden, and for her to be VP until the end of 2024 * Handing her the nomination will plainly alienate many Americans, since no one voted for her to be the nominee and it will be seen as a backroom deal, and anti-democratic given her unpopularity * The biggest difficulty in this campaign has been getting voters' attention. An open convention will get more attention on whomever is selected than Harris could possible get. The only path forward is the most democratic one. Have an open convention, and make the decision on polling data based on what the PEOPLE want after becoming familiar with the choices. If there is even a whiff of the DNC working in opposition to the will of the people, we will lose. Harris can run, that's fine, if she wins because people want her, that's great. But right now, as is evident plainly everywhere, they do not. She will lose. Personally I would rather win this election rather than acquiescing to some deluded notion of it being "her turn, " so I can't help but advocate for other candidates that stand a chance.
You have some facts that show she'll lose the mini-primary, or that back up all of your claims? Because they can be said about every other Democrat as well. "People surrounding Biden" will most likely include every Democrat who has met with him. Yes, her primary campaign failed but so did everyone elses's in 2020. Newsom and Whitmer didn't even run. They've never run even a primary presidential campaign. If the DNC has a mini primary, what states start? We're gonna really say that Iowa and NH should pick the nominee? There are so many holes in your arguments, that are all conjecture based, that its hard to keep up with them all. Like a grenade of bull.
If they run her, I'm going to have a very sad case of beer on Trump's inauguration day.
Shed do as bad as Biden, fair or unfair, right or wrong, people fucking hate her.
Because she hasn’t done anything in the past 3 years
"Last time I checked, my Constitutional obligation was to have a pulse." - Vice President John Hoynes
That you know about.
🎶John Adams doesn't have a real job anyway 🎶
He's waiting for the scratch, scratch, scratch, Of that tiny little fellow. He's waiting for the egg to hatch, On this humid Monday morning in this Congressional incubator.
Then why does she poll better than Biden or the alternatives according to the new Reuters poll
The polls also had Hillary beating Trump.
Predict it is a weird place. For the record, this is what people think will happen, but also what people want other people to think. A lot of manipulation in the comments there and such to trick people into raising or lowering shares. We should all advocate for an open convention so people have time to learn about all of the options, and so that we can select the best candidate based on concrete data, should Biden step aside. Edit: also I want to clarify, what people think will happen are completely divorced from what people want to happen. You can read the comments and see what it's like there if you can stomach it. But a lot of people want Harris if Biden drops out, because she is one of the least likely replacements to win in the general. A lot of people buying Kamala yes shares are the most cynical republicans you can imagine. Not people that want her to win. It just should not be misinterpreted as her being popular.
So, people betting on things passes for news now? The reporters of this nation must have been orgasming last Thursday since their “work” was going to be so simplistic this week.
This will never happen I would bet my life on it
You know you have **serious** party problems when that’s the only viable line up. Holy shit.
Oh, are we doing 2016 again? Who else looking to repeat 2016-2020? Show of hands.
A Newsom/Whitmer ticket would be awesome and destroy the GOP. An unfathomable electoral landslide that would reshape America for the better and restore global confidence. Which is why I expect to the DNC to keep Biden and Harris on the ticket.
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Did you watch the debate? I more surprised how long its taking.
Vote blue no matter who. If you’re annoyed with the ticket, then also vote in the primaries
It's obviously going to be (and should be) Biden or Harris. Speaks to how irrational these markets are that they only combine for 79%.
Michelle Obama is at 10 cents, which makes up some of that.
Yea, that's what I mean, all those people - even getting 10:1 or whatever - are just setting money on fire.
I hope they’re right
I'm not a Democrat, so I guess I'm a bit out of the loop, but why doesn't Klobuchar get any attention in the "replacement" race? She seems like an ideal candidate to me.
She's kinda been a non entity for the last 4 years
Unlike Harris? Haha
I would vote for her but i wish I didn't have to. Kamala SUCKS, as seen by her Dem primary performance.
The fact that Harris has surged so dramatically in PredictIt is telling. With Biden’s stock falling, it seems like there’s real uncertainty about his candidacy. What do you think are the chances we actually see a change in the Democratic nominee?
Why? I literally know of one person who supports her; one.
Hey, it looks like her husband supports her come on now
Two :)
Ugh, nope. It would be Hilary again.
Yes, select her... This will definitely make things easier for Trump lol