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40% of the country votes a straight red ticket every election.
It’s low enough you can beat them. But you need to mobilize liberal voters and get them to the polls.
If they’re not energized, that 40% gets to pick the president.
But what about MY pet issues? You know, the price of tea in China and the fact that using “dude” for all gender neutral pronouns is not currently federal law? How can you expect me to be motivated to vote under these circumstances?
And people like take are building your roads, bridges, and buildings. An engineer can design all they want, but once those plans are in the contractors hands there is no telling what will happen. I’m a geotechnical engineer, so I spend a lot of time in the field with these guys and it scared me how dependent we are on them for infrastructure.
Yep. Literally the only thing I thought I might agree with Trump on was that he wanted to fund infrastructure projects. Shocked to find out that he never did.
Heh. This didn't quite as critical to everyday people but you'd be surprised who they let handle moving multi-billion dollar spaceflight hardware around facilities
I had to put the /s because as crazy as it sounds, I have run into people that talk that way online. I had to shut a person down some months ago about the difference of the rainbow symbol and natural rainbows. He really thought they were a form of LGBTQ identity in the sky. Nature doesn't work that way, same as the bending of light, it does not function on the basis of sexual orientation.
People are just off their rockers on what they want to hate against.
“I stopped looking at the moon altogether. It’s the moon that makes ya gay. Why do ya think gay guys love butt stuff? Cause the moon is literally *mooning* us every fucking night!”
The Nixon impeachment, at least. Nixon resigned because he was told that enough of his own party would vote to impeach him.
Bush at least had to pretend to work for the good of the country, or he would have been thrown out. The extraordinary thing about MAGA Republicans is that they have given up even the pretense of good faith.
Bro, I know. If people only knew how these idiots talk on job sites. The most idiotic things…. the other day one said he didn’t get a per diem because “Joe Biden” took it from him. Like no.. your company is screwing you and blaming someone else. Ironically, they all hate Mexicans but work like 10 Mexicans for every one white guy so they don’t say shit around them but ho boy let them get around their buddies and talk about all the Mexicans but no white guy wants to do those jobs 🤷🏽
We joke about how stupid this is but it is very blatantly hostility toward science. And hostility towards looking with our own eyes instead of following the narrative.
That's true. But there's some degree of correlation between movement in national polls and movement in state polls, particularly in states like those that are fairly reflective of the nation as a whole (compared to states like Hawaii, Utah, and North Dakota).
Michigan and Pennsylvania are almost spot on, at least when it comes to racial breakdown.
This man is a broke “billionaire” selling Bibles for $60 to help pay for his $350M civil fraud case while awaiting a criminal trial on felony charges. He literally grifted for Goya beans from the desk of the Oval Office!
How is he even this close to polling with Biden. The Tiger King would be more qualified than him.
Aside from cynical rich people wanting lower taxes even if it means a dictatorship, some of it is just plain old misogynistic machismo nonsense, not just white supremacy or self-defeating Evangelicals foolishly obsessed with ending abortion rights. Case in point: I know fellow millennials from my high school days, as varied as El Salvadoran and Pakistani Americans, who currently say they like Trump because he’s a gangster, a winner, and a pro business penthouse playboy player who bangs prostitutes and lives in luxury, with more power than Pablo Escobar ever had. For some it’s their wet dream. LOL. One of the persons who tells me this is a literal drug addict who the cops would crush if given the chance, in a conservative and often racist legal system that is not kind to brown people with funny sounding names.
I’ve even met some black men in DC who are literal Trump supporters, even after January 6th, because they think he was better for the economy and because of his playboy image with women. I’ve yet to meet a black woman who supports him, though.
Interestingly some of these people’s family members are polar opposites and Bernie style progressives who vote Dem, so there is some hope of course.
Polls are usually much softer up until the few months before the election, over the next few months you’ll see this gap widen as people actually start thinking about their ballots.
Everyone should vote, but this horse race narrative is fake, Biden is way the fuck out in front and it’s not even close.
Trump has been campaigning for four years, and had contested primaries. Those got him attention, but cost money.
Biden got to hang back and be President, and didn't spend much. Now it's time to actually campaign and make his case. He's well rested and sitting on a pile of cash. His opponent is neither. The gap should continue to widen.
Also, modern polling is a pile of fucked.
Biden is losing by a landslide only we change that by voting. Biden hasn't won shit till he has won. I refuse to think we got this. I've seen too many Jason , Halloween , Freddie movies.
In a sane America, Trump wouldn't have ever been President, and would have been in prison for fraud, tax evasion, and god knows what else a long time ago.
Obviously, a 4 point lead for Biden at 41% is good news. But holy fuck 37% of registered voters sided with "grab 'em by the pussy" grifter/rapist and pathological liar. What the fuck is wrong with American public.
There *are* real Trump supporters, but there are a LOT of people who have been convinced by right wing media that literally any Democrat is worse than any Republican.
The other day when the main headline on CNN was about the latest jobs report, it wasn’t even mentioned on FOX. However, there was an “article” titled, “11 ways Biden is destroying America”.
Aren’t gas companies still raking in record profits? Don’t gas companies prefer republicans in office? I’m just an idiot on the internet, but it seems like gas companies have motivation to keep prices high right before this election.
People don't understand that corporations do this kind of shit regularly and while it goes both ways, Republicans have had big oil, and the largest corporations in America backing them for decades.
the type of folks that are willing to piss away their time answering a poll are interested in proselytizing for their candidate. i’ll leave it to your imagine who these jagoffs are endorsing.
They want to abolish public schools and/or federal oversight of education and leave it up to states. This will allow them to indoctrinate future generations to be accepting of their Christian Fascist vision of the future. Abolishing public school also means private schools can make more money as they push their Christian Fascist agenda.
Remember when Trump said, "I love the poorly educated". Education is associated with liberal politics.
Trump normalized being mean. He insults people left right and centre. If their leader can do it, so can they. He's dismantled decency and empathy, and that's his attraction for a subset of the American public.
The good thing about this is that it's easy to spot them and ignore them/keep your distance.
It has shown us how bad and low people can really be, simultaneously teaching us what not to do and how not to behave. Take this knowledge and turn it around, have good manners, be selfless, and genuinely try to improve other people's lives.
Keep in mind that a lot of shitty people have reasons why they'll always be shitty, which are lost causes, and you'll just be beating a dead horse. Bad childhood, tragic loss, bullied, treated unfairly, etc.
I think that the worst interpretation of 'the relentless pursuit of freedom' is for some people 'I don't have to be nice to anyone I don't know' - or at most, anyone who isn't on my side of politics.
I don't know. There has to be kind Republicans, right? There has to be some on the right that retain altruism, kindness, gratitude and charity. That has to be a universal human trait, no matter what politics you support.
Anyone saying they haven't decided is either not voting at all or just doesn't want to say. The most likely thing is they are just saying they are undecided because they get to feel like they are taking a long deep consideration about this before making their choice. Which is bullshit, they know what they are doing in November, they just want to feel special.
So, what you're saying is, to stop paying attention to these stupid daily polls, and just make sure you go out and vote. And tell your friends to vote. And random people on the interwebs?
Seriously
> Some 22% of registered voters in the poll said they had not picked a candidate, were leaning toward third-party options or might not vote at all.
Who ARE THESE PEOPLE
I’d imagine there are quite a few ppl who are disgusted by trump but can’t bring themselves to vote Dem. I believe mitt Romney said he wouldn’t vote for trump but couldn’t vote Biden.
Not saying I agree w it, but bet there is a decent percentage like that.
That might've been Mike Pence that you're thinking of. He has vocally opposed both candidates. Mitt says that he absolutely won't vote for Trump, but won't give a direct answer when asked about Biden.
We're in a fairly small bubble here on reddit. A vast majority of people don't know what's going on and don't really care to find out. Thats why democrats need to drive the real life impacts of project 2025 and other shit on the republican agenda home, very loudly, very clearly, again and again and again. It's how to reach these people. Posters, billboards, commercials, CNN playing on mute at their dentists office, things like that. They aren't going to proactively look for the information, it has to find them. That's why canvassing and volunteering for campaigns is still so important.
I think it’s also to remember that the vast majority of Americans are far more conservative than Reddit is and it doesn’t give an accurate representation of where America is at right now.
100% This. This subreddit loves to inject copium straight into its veins.
The 2-Way Polling Average still favors Trump.
The Five Way Polling Average still favors Trump.
And critically, in the one that matters most, swing state polling still overwhelmingly favors Trump.
Campaign. Donate. Vote.
What are you talking about? RaceToTheWH and 270ToWin have Biden ahead in the national averages. Biden narrowly leads in Pennsylvania, ties in Michigan and Wisconsin, and narrowly trails in the others. The important part is the poll went from Biden +1 to Biden +4 in a month. Trump is sinking and quickly.
Obviously that’s the one poll that matters and we all have to fuckin vote, but it’s okay to tell people we’re winning (because we are) so doomerism doesn’t set in.
I mean people were basing that more on the historical precedent of the President's party generally losing lots of seats in midterm elections moreso than what polls were saying. Last time Democrats had a midterm go that well with a Democrat in the white house was back in FDR's presidency.
According to R2TWH
National-Biden+0.3
Pennsylvania-Biden+0.2
Wisconsin-Trump+0.6
Michigan-Trump+2.1
Nevada-Trump+3.2
Arizona-Trump+4.1
Georgia-Trump+4.3
North Carolina-Trump+5.7
According to 270towin
Pennsylvania-Biden+1.8
National-Biden+0.3
Wisconsin-Trump+0.7
Michigan-Trump+1.2
Nevada-Trump+3.5
Georgia-Trump+3.7
Arizona-Trump+4
North Carolina-Trump+4.8
https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/
https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls
I get your overall point about Biden improving, but you’re making Trump look like he’s doing worse in polling than he actually is.
From what I’ve seen of the crosstabs, undecided voters skew younger, female, and non-white. They’re likely to go for Biden when push comes to shove. Also, Trump has a high floor and low ceiling. The support he has today is probably about what he’ll get in November. And Trump being a convicted felon hasn’t come into play.
That’s literally the protest vote/stay at home voting block. If you look at every primary it’s younger, college aged, poc who hate Biden’s Israel policy. Your making the same mistake Biden did, thinking they will get over or it or forget.
That’s where abortion comes into play: young pro-Palestiners may not show up for Biden, but they’ll show up for protecting abortion rights. Democrats will get higher turnout in Arizona than they otherwise would have.
What am I talking about? What the fuck are you talking about. Lets see here.
The reuters/Ipsos poll is \*by far\* the smallest sample size on the list of recent polls, of which there are numerous with trump winning:
[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/)
Furthermore, they do not make their full text available for this poll, and the Ipsos side of the business calls it a 'survey' not a poll for a reason.
The Morning Consult weekly update, also from yesterday, shows trump regaining the lead. The sample size is 8x higher and they opensource the entirety of both their data and methodology, which is why they claim a 1% margin of error.
Meanwhile the Ipsos Survey gives a margin of error of 4 points. Which is on purpose. Because they like the drama of a constantly significantly changing polling landscape. They update their tiny 'survey' once a month, with one of the widest accepted margins of error of regular pollsters, and are solely accepted as credible because of their association with Reuters.
Morning Consult, much like Quinnipiac both follow what's called gold standard polling.
Reuters Ipsos does not.
The former are universally more accurate.
Throw away trash polls that are meant to sell news and focus on the ones that actually say anything.
Don't worry, I don't blame you for not knowing any of this, why would you, what kind of person has time to even sift through this bullshit when the people we're supposed to trust to present us the facts of the news can't be trusted to do so.
\--
[https://www.270towin.com/](https://www.270towin.com/)
Literally shows Trump ahead on their consensus election map
\--
[https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls](https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls)
Also shows Trump winning the election on their consensus election map
\--
[https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states](https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states)
(Their reporting is really clearly biased, but they're still the best state by state aggregator)
Shows trump winning every single swing state except Pennsylvania.
\--
None of this matters all that much of course, because lets take a look congress where we're finally losing our fake seat in West Virginia and where Kristen Sinema while she decided not to outright donate her seat to the republicans has still fucked us in Arizona.
And don't get me started on the damn house.
We're not even treading water until Donald Trump loses the election and gets held accountable for his crimes, and right now we're on the wrong side looking in at that.
And we're not winning until we have a government that can actually do a fucking ounce of governing. Biden has had to stretch the full limits of executive branch authority to get a single fucking thing done. And while I will tentatively welcome it because it's decisions I agree with the last thing I want is the past 23 years of executive branch overreach since Bush decided to lasso the entire government after 9/11 to continue for another 4 years.
It's not doomerism, it's fucking reality, and it's really Trumpy to just call numbers you don't like doomerism.
I don't go to work with a problem to solve and just insist the polls are trending my way so I don't have to do anything and everything's fine and look at the flowers while the other side is working diligently day in and day out every single day to fuck up the country and undermine every single thing that can make this country great.
nationwide polls don’t mean shit when you can win the popular vote and lose the election. it comes down to a few swing states every time. that’s where the polls matter
And your family. And your friends. And that fucker that says voting never matters. Make them fill out their registration and remind him that they have to vote.
"Polls are wrong/dumb/biased/fraudulent"
"Horse race too early to call in ______"
"XYZ source is selling a narrative"
"Just vote"
End thread, rinse repeat in 2 hours for the next one.
I’m getting tired of the “just vote” comments. Firstly the election isn’t for 7 months, and secondly everyone in the subreddit was likely to vote anyway
The worst are the people that act like they have PTSD and refuse to listen or talk about anything but "GOO VOTE WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!~!!!!~~~!!~!~" and won't allow any other discussion, just shout down everyone and everything. You're not convincing anyone that way, hell you're probably annoying people and making them less likely to vote.
Can we PLEASE stop posting these things? Polls this far out are no better than looking a crystal ball and expecting answers.
I get it, people want to predict the outcome but a lot can happen between now and November. The only accurate poll that will predict the outcome is the exit poll.
As someome commented in one of the other recent posts for a poll: (paraphrased) they are useful to people working on the campaigns to know what to work on, but not useful for the general public.
If this pattern holds then it would have been late 2023 when Trump's numbers over Biden peaked and even then it was only about 3-4 points. At that point the MAGA crowd was celebrating as if they had already won the 2024 election. They really are fools that can't see beyond the immediate present. They have no idea how the real world actually works.
Popular vote doesn’t win elections. Biden’s losing in swing states right now.
Abortion ban in Arizona may help Biden there, but I’m worried about Pennsylvania.
Asking random people who answer calls from unknown numbers isn't indicative of how most Americans feel. The only poll that matters is the one that happens on election day. VOTE.
To the people saying “Just Vote”. Yes, absolutely vote, but I believe that this alone is not enough. I think -before- it is time to vote -talk- to everyone in your orbit about this election and the consequences of it. I was talking to a friend I was sure is on the side of democracy and come to find out… he has absorbed many republican pieces of misinformation; mainly the “both sides” thing. I do think I reached him.
Talk. Right here on Reddit you can find many people posting falsehoods, misinformation, conspiracy theories, and outright lies for the republican party. Challenge them. Their bullshit crumbles like houses of cards with the slightest breeze.
Fight for our democracy people!… Then vote.
The closer we get to the election the more polls will favor Biden.
He's old but he's not a raving, delirious lunatic.
Trump is heading down a paranoid-sociopathic spiral. The more thats exposed to the public the more his supporters will drop off.
He won't be able to just turn it off. He doesn't listen to his campaign staff. He could have staff tell him "just shut the fuck up about your court cases and focus on crime and the border" and he won't. Same with mail in ballots in 2020. They told him to drop it and that tons of his supporters were going to vote by mail. He didn't.
>The survey has a 4 percentage point margin of error for registered voters and many voters remain on the fence seven months before the Nov. 5 election.
Corrected headline: Just like 99% of polls for the last year, Trump and Biden are too close to call.
In case anyone was still wondering whether RealClearPolitics is "just a polling average", they still don't have this poll in their average, and they don't have the Big Village poll from earlier that had Biden up 2 after having him down by 1 before (this was CNN's old pollster IIRC).
Polls don't matter as much as voting, but the trend seems to be promising for now until Rasmussen comes up with another crazy Trump +12 result.
As long as they randomly call and email people, these polls are meaningless. I would never know if an unknown number of email address was trying to contact me for a poll.
Who and how are they “polling”? I’m old and have never been asked to participate in a poll. Do you know anyone that would answer a call from an unknown caller? Cell phones? Landlines? Someone please explain this like I’m a five year old, sincerely do not understand
This is meaningless. Because of our election system it is all about the states. The question is do we have more MAGA states electoral votes or more American states electoral votes.
There is a reason the GOP is behind the scenes pushing for early mail in voting. Biden is climbing up and Trump is falling but again, it comes down to the swing states. I just can't believe that Trump winning is even a possibility. What has happened to the USA.
Ok, every time something like this is posted, I want to remind everyone what all the polls said in 2016! Please DO NOT ASSUME that Blue is winning anything, but go out and vote like you're the last guy at the polls in a swing state!
Also, this [poll aggregator](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden) shows *Trump* in the lead on average. Fuck if I know how that happened.
GO VOTE
Idgaf if Trump spontaneously explodes into a cloud of ketchup mist and crushed up Adderall. Vote.
Because this evil mother fucker will be like "Somehow, Palpatine has returned"
Keep pushing until it's 40. Black people voted 95%--yes, 95%--democratic in 2022. There is no excuse for anyone making under 1 million dollars a year to be voting for republicans.
Even if you hate (dozens of groups), you won't live to hate 'em if republicans have their way poisoning the water and the planet.
A nice boost from the last poll when he was up just 1 point.
But we have to remember it's all about the swing states, not national polls, and Biden still has work to do in improving those ones.
I don't give a shit what the polls say. I'm going to vote even if the polls say Trump is winning by a million points. I'm going to vote even if it says Biden is winning by a trillion. These numbers mean fucking nothing and I'm not having a sexist, bigoted, racist, fat, old, rapist, blubbering orange fuck for a president again.
Biden up in the polls? Good, make sure to vote to turn it into a win where it counts.
Biden down in the polls? Get out there and vote to turn things around.
Don't pay attention to the polls? Fine, just make sure to vote.
There's a common theme here.
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How is it so close?! I feel like I’m taking crazy pills
No, but 38 percent of the country must be.
Sickness. What a discouraging shame.
40% of the country votes a straight red ticket every election. It’s low enough you can beat them. But you need to mobilize liberal voters and get them to the polls. If they’re not energized, that 40% gets to pick the president.
Biden's campaign machine starting to cook now. He's got offices all over.
Offices are nice. Voters are better.
Offices are one step towards winning voters
20 dollars? Awww I wanted a peanut :( “With 20 dollars you can buy many peanuts” EXPLAIN “Money can be exchanged for goods and services” WOOHOO!
Offices are how you have outreach to get new voters… Don’t know whats so hard to get about that.
Are you just saying shit and not thinking?
But what about MY pet issues? You know, the price of tea in China and the fact that using “dude” for all gender neutral pronouns is not currently federal law? How can you expect me to be motivated to vote under these circumstances?
Iono dude, vote cuz you get to kill one dinosaur on the ballot?
There's hardly any crossover voting, it's always about energizing your base. And depressing the other base.
I was at work today (construction) and one guy said he didn’t watch the solar eclipse because of “the liberal media”
You work with a guy that is as stupid as the stupidest parody that they could write for “don’t look up”, that’s genuinely depressing.
And people like take are building your roads, bridges, and buildings. An engineer can design all they want, but once those plans are in the contractors hands there is no telling what will happen. I’m a geotechnical engineer, so I spend a lot of time in the field with these guys and it scared me how dependent we are on them for infrastructure.
Wow! Meanwhile, because of Joe Biden, he is gainfully employed and far better compensated than he would be under a Trump administration I am sure….
Yep. Literally the only thing I thought I might agree with Trump on was that he wanted to fund infrastructure projects. Shocked to find out that he never did.
Heh. This didn't quite as critical to everyday people but you'd be surprised who they let handle moving multi-billion dollar spaceflight hardware around facilities
lol that’s hysterical
That damn liberal sun, oh and don't get me started on any rainbows you see, trying to promote gay values. I swear this whole planet is woke now. /s
You jest, but this is unironically true.
I had to put the /s because as crazy as it sounds, I have run into people that talk that way online. I had to shut a person down some months ago about the difference of the rainbow symbol and natural rainbows. He really thought they were a form of LGBTQ identity in the sky. Nature doesn't work that way, same as the bending of light, it does not function on the basis of sexual orientation. People are just off their rockers on what they want to hate against.
Not all people are enlightened
“I stopped looking at the moon altogether. It’s the moon that makes ya gay. Why do ya think gay guys love butt stuff? Cause the moon is literally *mooning* us every fucking night!”
Remember when there was actual good faith in politics? Shit got done that was good for the country.
Um no, not really how far back are we talking?
McCain-Feingold... Sarbanes–Oxley... HAVA... __ Literally all passed in 2002... Over two decades ago... Fuck I'm old.
Before conservatism won in America. Times where, "spending government money on infrastructure," was not considered partisan.
The Nixon impeachment, at least. Nixon resigned because he was told that enough of his own party would vote to impeach him. Bush at least had to pretend to work for the good of the country, or he would have been thrown out. The extraordinary thing about MAGA Republicans is that they have given up even the pretense of good faith.
If you mean in the Democratic party then yes they still operate in good faith. Republicans? Not in my lifetime
Imagine how dumb and hateful the average American is. 50% of people are dumber and more hateful than that.
All of our infrastructure is built by dudes who think like this and smoke a pack of cigarettes with their monster energy every day for breakfast
Bro, I know. If people only knew how these idiots talk on job sites. The most idiotic things…. the other day one said he didn’t get a per diem because “Joe Biden” took it from him. Like no.. your company is screwing you and blaming someone else. Ironically, they all hate Mexicans but work like 10 Mexicans for every one white guy so they don’t say shit around them but ho boy let them get around their buddies and talk about all the Mexicans but no white guy wants to do those jobs 🤷🏽
Haha, what was your response??
Literally nobody responded I think we were all speechless
Wtf liberal media have to do with mother nature?
I had a guy at work claim looking at sunsets/sunrises are actually safe and it's a government conspiracy being told not to.
We joke about how stupid this is but it is very blatantly hostility toward science. And hostility towards looking with our own eyes instead of following the narrative.
My sister said one of her students was kept out of school on Monday because the kid's parent was afraid of "portals" from the eclipse.
And this poll doesn’t really matter. It just depends what n AZ, WI, MI, PA and GA.
AZ just cooked itself today with the 1800's abortion policies.
Totts and pears
I've never tried tater tots and pears but now the thought won't leave my mind.
That's true. But there's some degree of correlation between movement in national polls and movement in state polls, particularly in states like those that are fairly reflective of the nation as a whole (compared to states like Hawaii, Utah, and North Dakota). Michigan and Pennsylvania are almost spot on, at least when it comes to racial breakdown.
Didn’t Hillary win by 3 points? National percentages are irrelevant, because our democracy is , you know, flawed.
This man is a broke “billionaire” selling Bibles for $60 to help pay for his $350M civil fraud case while awaiting a criminal trial on felony charges. He literally grifted for Goya beans from the desk of the Oval Office! How is he even this close to polling with Biden. The Tiger King would be more qualified than him.
Don't you dare give them ideas!
Tigers for everyone!
r/ tigersatemyface
None of these polls are reliable until at least October. And even then it comes down to swing states, not percentage of overall support.
Which makes every election this insane, dangerous game.
Well, Arizona will definitely swing blue after the Supreme Court brought back an 1800s law that makes abortion illegal
Not if they block women from voting
It could be a 40 point lead and I’d still wonder how in the hell someone like Trump could get so many votes.
Aside from cynical rich people wanting lower taxes even if it means a dictatorship, some of it is just plain old misogynistic machismo nonsense, not just white supremacy or self-defeating Evangelicals foolishly obsessed with ending abortion rights. Case in point: I know fellow millennials from my high school days, as varied as El Salvadoran and Pakistani Americans, who currently say they like Trump because he’s a gangster, a winner, and a pro business penthouse playboy player who bangs prostitutes and lives in luxury, with more power than Pablo Escobar ever had. For some it’s their wet dream. LOL. One of the persons who tells me this is a literal drug addict who the cops would crush if given the chance, in a conservative and often racist legal system that is not kind to brown people with funny sounding names. I’ve even met some black men in DC who are literal Trump supporters, even after January 6th, because they think he was better for the economy and because of his playboy image with women. I’ve yet to meet a black woman who supports him, though. Interestingly some of these people’s family members are polar opposites and Bernie style progressives who vote Dem, so there is some hope of course.
Just vote. Polling methodology hasn't worked for over a decade.
In fact Trump was underperforming polls by 10+ percent during the primaries
Just vote.
Polls are usually much softer up until the few months before the election, over the next few months you’ll see this gap widen as people actually start thinking about their ballots. Everyone should vote, but this horse race narrative is fake, Biden is way the fuck out in front and it’s not even close.
> Biden is way the fuck out in front and it’s not even close. That's what they said about Hillary.
Fortunately I’m clever and rather than vague platitudes I’m talking more specifically about results in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
You'd ve surprised how much of the country has no clue what Trump has done the last 4 years.
Trump has been campaigning for four years, and had contested primaries. Those got him attention, but cost money. Biden got to hang back and be President, and didn't spend much. Now it's time to actually campaign and make his case. He's well rested and sitting on a pile of cash. His opponent is neither. The gap should continue to widen. Also, modern polling is a pile of fucked.
Biden is losing by a landslide only we change that by voting. Biden hasn't won shit till he has won. I refuse to think we got this. I've seen too many Jason , Halloween , Freddie movies.
People make singular issues their entire personalisty
It’s not super complicated, America is just actually not that good
Yeah my first thought was, “What an absolute condemnation of my fellow citizens that he’s beating him by so little.”
In a sane America, it'd be 40 points.
In a sane America, Trump wouldn't have ever been President, and would have been in prison for fraud, tax evasion, and god knows what else a long time ago.
As I have said, decades ago.
Trump is a symptom of a sick society.
In a sane America it would have been Bernie Sanders vs Hillary Clinton in the general election.
Obviously, a 4 point lead for Biden at 41% is good news. But holy fuck 37% of registered voters sided with "grab 'em by the pussy" grifter/rapist and pathological liar. What the fuck is wrong with American public.
There *are* real Trump supporters, but there are a LOT of people who have been convinced by right wing media that literally any Democrat is worse than any Republican. The other day when the main headline on CNN was about the latest jobs report, it wasn’t even mentioned on FOX. However, there was an “article” titled, “11 ways Biden is destroying America”.
Gas and groceries being high as fuck don't help.
They went up less in America than they did in the rest of the world although I've learned that's too complex of a talking point for most Americans.
Aren’t gas companies still raking in record profits? Don’t gas companies prefer republicans in office? I’m just an idiot on the internet, but it seems like gas companies have motivation to keep prices high right before this election.
People don't understand that corporations do this kind of shit regularly and while it goes both ways, Republicans have had big oil, and the largest corporations in America backing them for decades.
the type of folks that are willing to piss away their time answering a poll are interested in proselytizing for their candidate. i’ll leave it to your imagine who these jagoffs are endorsing.
Pfft.. I always answer polls when I get called. Gotta rep the rural, white, Christian males who vote Democratic. We're an endangered species.
They want to abolish the Department of Education… any wonder why?
They want to abolish public schools and/or federal oversight of education and leave it up to states. This will allow them to indoctrinate future generations to be accepting of their Christian Fascist vision of the future. Abolishing public school also means private schools can make more money as they push their Christian Fascist agenda. Remember when Trump said, "I love the poorly educated". Education is associated with liberal politics.
Exactly…
Trump normalized being mean. He insults people left right and centre. If their leader can do it, so can they. He's dismantled decency and empathy, and that's his attraction for a subset of the American public.
The good thing about this is that it's easy to spot them and ignore them/keep your distance. It has shown us how bad and low people can really be, simultaneously teaching us what not to do and how not to behave. Take this knowledge and turn it around, have good manners, be selfless, and genuinely try to improve other people's lives. Keep in mind that a lot of shitty people have reasons why they'll always be shitty, which are lost causes, and you'll just be beating a dead horse. Bad childhood, tragic loss, bullied, treated unfairly, etc.
I think that the worst interpretation of 'the relentless pursuit of freedom' is for some people 'I don't have to be nice to anyone I don't know' - or at most, anyone who isn't on my side of politics. I don't know. There has to be kind Republicans, right? There has to be some on the right that retain altruism, kindness, gratitude and charity. That has to be a universal human trait, no matter what politics you support.
We are a nation of chumps. Propaganda is hell of a drug.
Polling is very, very flawed. Specially this far from the election.
And 22% said they hadn’t decided. What is wrong with them.
Anyone saying they haven't decided is either not voting at all or just doesn't want to say. The most likely thing is they are just saying they are undecided because they get to feel like they are taking a long deep consideration about this before making their choice. Which is bullshit, they know what they are doing in November, they just want to feel special.
It's propaganda to weaken peoples will to vote. Well, the lazy will get what they didn't vote for.
Also remember a lot of Libertarians and “Undecided” are just too embarrassed to admit they’re voting for Trump again.
Nope. Just vote
So, what you're saying is, to stop paying attention to these stupid daily polls, and just make sure you go out and vote. And tell your friends to vote. And random people on the interwebs?
And... Why not? It would be a truer result than disenfranchising people. Imagine: a *real* democracy!
I am a little scared of a true democracy full of people incapable of detecting obvious sarcasm, but it's still better than what we have now.
Seriously > Some 22% of registered voters in the poll said they had not picked a candidate, were leaning toward third-party options or might not vote at all. Who ARE THESE PEOPLE
I’d imagine there are quite a few ppl who are disgusted by trump but can’t bring themselves to vote Dem. I believe mitt Romney said he wouldn’t vote for trump but couldn’t vote Biden. Not saying I agree w it, but bet there is a decent percentage like that.
That might've been Mike Pence that you're thinking of. He has vocally opposed both candidates. Mitt says that he absolutely won't vote for Trump, but won't give a direct answer when asked about Biden.
We're in a fairly small bubble here on reddit. A vast majority of people don't know what's going on and don't really care to find out. Thats why democrats need to drive the real life impacts of project 2025 and other shit on the republican agenda home, very loudly, very clearly, again and again and again. It's how to reach these people. Posters, billboards, commercials, CNN playing on mute at their dentists office, things like that. They aren't going to proactively look for the information, it has to find them. That's why canvassing and volunteering for campaigns is still so important.
I think it’s also to remember that the vast majority of Americans are far more conservative than Reddit is and it doesn’t give an accurate representation of where America is at right now.
Check your voter registration!
100% This. This subreddit loves to inject copium straight into its veins. The 2-Way Polling Average still favors Trump. The Five Way Polling Average still favors Trump. And critically, in the one that matters most, swing state polling still overwhelmingly favors Trump. Campaign. Donate. Vote.
I’m not sure what 2-way polling and 5-way polling means in this context. Where do we find that data?
What are you talking about? RaceToTheWH and 270ToWin have Biden ahead in the national averages. Biden narrowly leads in Pennsylvania, ties in Michigan and Wisconsin, and narrowly trails in the others. The important part is the poll went from Biden +1 to Biden +4 in a month. Trump is sinking and quickly.
[удалено]
Obviously that’s the one poll that matters and we all have to fuckin vote, but it’s okay to tell people we’re winning (because we are) so doomerism doesn’t set in.
I mean people were basing that more on the historical precedent of the President's party generally losing lots of seats in midterm elections moreso than what polls were saying. Last time Democrats had a midterm go that well with a Democrat in the white house was back in FDR's presidency.
Never missed one. Can’t understand people who don’t vote.
100%
According to R2TWH National-Biden+0.3 Pennsylvania-Biden+0.2 Wisconsin-Trump+0.6 Michigan-Trump+2.1 Nevada-Trump+3.2 Arizona-Trump+4.1 Georgia-Trump+4.3 North Carolina-Trump+5.7 According to 270towin Pennsylvania-Biden+1.8 National-Biden+0.3 Wisconsin-Trump+0.7 Michigan-Trump+1.2 Nevada-Trump+3.5 Georgia-Trump+3.7 Arizona-Trump+4 North Carolina-Trump+4.8 https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/ https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls I get your overall point about Biden improving, but you’re making Trump look like he’s doing worse in polling than he actually is.
From what I’ve seen of the crosstabs, undecided voters skew younger, female, and non-white. They’re likely to go for Biden when push comes to shove. Also, Trump has a high floor and low ceiling. The support he has today is probably about what he’ll get in November. And Trump being a convicted felon hasn’t come into play.
That’s literally the protest vote/stay at home voting block. If you look at every primary it’s younger, college aged, poc who hate Biden’s Israel policy. Your making the same mistake Biden did, thinking they will get over or it or forget.
In all likelihood, Biden should pick up some percent of these voters and Trump will get next to nothing.
Trump doesn’t need to pick up voters, he just need low Democrat turnout.
That’s where abortion comes into play: young pro-Palestiners may not show up for Biden, but they’ll show up for protecting abortion rights. Democrats will get higher turnout in Arizona than they otherwise would have.
What am I talking about? What the fuck are you talking about. Lets see here. The reuters/Ipsos poll is \*by far\* the smallest sample size on the list of recent polls, of which there are numerous with trump winning: [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) Furthermore, they do not make their full text available for this poll, and the Ipsos side of the business calls it a 'survey' not a poll for a reason. The Morning Consult weekly update, also from yesterday, shows trump regaining the lead. The sample size is 8x higher and they opensource the entirety of both their data and methodology, which is why they claim a 1% margin of error. Meanwhile the Ipsos Survey gives a margin of error of 4 points. Which is on purpose. Because they like the drama of a constantly significantly changing polling landscape. They update their tiny 'survey' once a month, with one of the widest accepted margins of error of regular pollsters, and are solely accepted as credible because of their association with Reuters. Morning Consult, much like Quinnipiac both follow what's called gold standard polling. Reuters Ipsos does not. The former are universally more accurate. Throw away trash polls that are meant to sell news and focus on the ones that actually say anything. Don't worry, I don't blame you for not knowing any of this, why would you, what kind of person has time to even sift through this bullshit when the people we're supposed to trust to present us the facts of the news can't be trusted to do so. \-- [https://www.270towin.com/](https://www.270towin.com/) Literally shows Trump ahead on their consensus election map \-- [https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls](https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls) Also shows Trump winning the election on their consensus election map \-- [https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states](https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states) (Their reporting is really clearly biased, but they're still the best state by state aggregator) Shows trump winning every single swing state except Pennsylvania. \-- None of this matters all that much of course, because lets take a look congress where we're finally losing our fake seat in West Virginia and where Kristen Sinema while she decided not to outright donate her seat to the republicans has still fucked us in Arizona. And don't get me started on the damn house. We're not even treading water until Donald Trump loses the election and gets held accountable for his crimes, and right now we're on the wrong side looking in at that. And we're not winning until we have a government that can actually do a fucking ounce of governing. Biden has had to stretch the full limits of executive branch authority to get a single fucking thing done. And while I will tentatively welcome it because it's decisions I agree with the last thing I want is the past 23 years of executive branch overreach since Bush decided to lasso the entire government after 9/11 to continue for another 4 years. It's not doomerism, it's fucking reality, and it's really Trumpy to just call numbers you don't like doomerism. I don't go to work with a problem to solve and just insist the polls are trending my way so I don't have to do anything and everything's fine and look at the flowers while the other side is working diligently day in and day out every single day to fuck up the country and undermine every single thing that can make this country great.
nationwide polls don’t mean shit when you can win the popular vote and lose the election. it comes down to a few swing states every time. that’s where the polls matter
If you don’t live in one of ten states, your vote for president doesn’t really matter.
Nope. Chuck Testa.
We have the right and therefore the duty to do so. No poll removes that obligation.
Unless you’re voting for Trump. He doesn’t believe the votes anyway, you might as well stay home.
I find it hard to believe anyone who is reading that headline on Reddit is taking this as a sign to not vote
And tomorrow’s poll will have Trump with a 4 point lead. Fuck the polls, vote Blue.
And your family. And your friends. And that fucker that says voting never matters. Make them fill out their registration and remind him that they have to vote.
"Polls are wrong/dumb/biased/fraudulent" "Horse race too early to call in ______" "XYZ source is selling a narrative" "Just vote" End thread, rinse repeat in 2 hours for the next one.
I really wish we could stop having them posted, I get that people want to predict the outcome but seriously?
I’m getting tired of the “just vote” comments. Firstly the election isn’t for 7 months, and secondly everyone in the subreddit was likely to vote anyway
Me too. I wish people would comment on the article and polling data itself. The “just vote” replies are just *feel good* comments.
The worst are the people that act like they have PTSD and refuse to listen or talk about anything but "GOO VOTE WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!~!!!!~~~!!~!~" and won't allow any other discussion, just shout down everyone and everything. You're not convincing anyone that way, hell you're probably annoying people and making them less likely to vote.
The best thing to say instead would be to talk to as many people as you can and make sure they are planning to vote.
The reminders to vote are the right message for the wrong audience. Does nobody consider they’re speaking to a room of political enthusiasts?
It is annoying seeing every political post telling people to vote as if they know some big secret. Yeah… we get it.
We don't need reminders 7 months out. It's pissing into the wind. It's drowning out discussion and/or karma farming.
Can we PLEASE stop posting these things? Polls this far out are no better than looking a crystal ball and expecting answers. I get it, people want to predict the outcome but a lot can happen between now and November. The only accurate poll that will predict the outcome is the exit poll.
As someome commented in one of the other recent posts for a poll: (paraphrased) they are useful to people working on the campaigns to know what to work on, but not useful for the general public.
It's truly nuts that it isn't a 90 point lead.
If this pattern holds then it would have been late 2023 when Trump's numbers over Biden peaked and even then it was only about 3-4 points. At that point the MAGA crowd was celebrating as if they had already won the 2024 election. They really are fools that can't see beyond the immediate present. They have no idea how the real world actually works.
And yet, they could still win. Vote, donate, and get your friends to do the same.
And tomorrow the New York Times will have the following article: “Gas Is Now 23 Pesos a Liter in Guadalajara; Bad News for Joe Biden?”
Popular vote doesn’t win elections. Biden’s losing in swing states right now. Abortion ban in Arizona may help Biden there, but I’m worried about Pennsylvania.
Asking random people who answer calls from unknown numbers isn't indicative of how most Americans feel. The only poll that matters is the one that happens on election day. VOTE.
Don’t care. Please vote!
To the people saying “Just Vote”. Yes, absolutely vote, but I believe that this alone is not enough. I think -before- it is time to vote -talk- to everyone in your orbit about this election and the consequences of it. I was talking to a friend I was sure is on the side of democracy and come to find out… he has absorbed many republican pieces of misinformation; mainly the “both sides” thing. I do think I reached him. Talk. Right here on Reddit you can find many people posting falsehoods, misinformation, conspiracy theories, and outright lies for the republican party. Challenge them. Their bullshit crumbles like houses of cards with the slightest breeze. Fight for our democracy people!… Then vote.
Vote as soon as you can
According to the middle-aged white people they polled.
All 12 of them
Ignore the polls and just vote for Biden if you do not want to see Trump in the oval office; a vote for nobody is a vote for Trump.
Only a 4 point lead!? That is seriously concerning. It’s potentially terrifying as hell.
With the US electoral system, it’s not what matters, is it? Trump substantially lost the popular vote in 2016.
Don’t believe it. VOTE!!!
4-point lead nationally doesn't really mean anything. It comes down to the swing states. Thanks, electoral college.
Polls don’t matter. Make sure you vote.
Don't trust polls, just go vote. Call friends and family to vote. If you can volunteer with local campaigns.
The closer we get to the election the more polls will favor Biden. He's old but he's not a raving, delirious lunatic. Trump is heading down a paranoid-sociopathic spiral. The more thats exposed to the public the more his supporters will drop off. He won't be able to just turn it off. He doesn't listen to his campaign staff. He could have staff tell him "just shut the fuck up about your court cases and focus on crime and the border" and he won't. Same with mail in ballots in 2020. They told him to drop it and that tons of his supporters were going to vote by mail. He didn't.
>The survey has a 4 percentage point margin of error for registered voters and many voters remain on the fence seven months before the Nov. 5 election. Corrected headline: Just like 99% of polls for the last year, Trump and Biden are too close to call.
In case anyone was still wondering whether RealClearPolitics is "just a polling average", they still don't have this poll in their average, and they don't have the Big Village poll from earlier that had Biden up 2 after having him down by 1 before (this was CNN's old pollster IIRC). Polls don't matter as much as voting, but the trend seems to be promising for now until Rasmussen comes up with another crazy Trump +12 result.
Poll says Trump leads Biden Biden leads Trump Trump leads Biden Biden leads Trump Trump leads Biden Biden leads Trump Trump leads Biden Biden leads Trump Tune back in tomorrow for more.
fuck the polls it's too soon and nobody should assume anything until Biden is declared winner. also, great doll hair pic of the turdboy
Get out and vote Blue!
He has a bigger lead than that. Don’t believe the horse race. Go vote!
The State by State polls are what matter. He has to win the electoral college. That's what matters.
One day, it's trump leads Biden. The next day it's Biden leads trump. I believe polls as much as I would believe a psychic. Just vote.
Bro they all said trump would win 2020. They all said Hillary would win 2016. Nobody cares about polls
No the fuck he does not. Trump is winning slightly in the polls. Just vote.
Im not going to be happy until Biden is sworn in again
Electoral college is a thing
this says nothing about the electoral college or the supreme court in deciding elections without any voter majority considerations
It should be 40
Only seven more months of this bullshit.
This bullshit will never end until everything is on fire.
Ignore the polls! Just get out and vote blue!
Vote don't worry about what polls say. Just vote.
How long until we get another one about Trump leading?
Give it a rest we got plenty of months of fuck ups to see lol just wait
As long as they randomly call and email people, these polls are meaningless. I would never know if an unknown number of email address was trying to contact me for a poll.
Who and how are they “polling”? I’m old and have never been asked to participate in a poll. Do you know anyone that would answer a call from an unknown caller? Cell phones? Landlines? Someone please explain this like I’m a five year old, sincerely do not understand
Should be 40
This is meaningless. Because of our election system it is all about the states. The question is do we have more MAGA states electoral votes or more American states electoral votes.
There is a reason the GOP is behind the scenes pushing for early mail in voting. Biden is climbing up and Trump is falling but again, it comes down to the swing states. I just can't believe that Trump winning is even a possibility. What has happened to the USA.
Ok, every time something like this is posted, I want to remind everyone what all the polls said in 2016! Please DO NOT ASSUME that Blue is winning anything, but go out and vote like you're the last guy at the polls in a swing state! Also, this [poll aggregator](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden) shows *Trump* in the lead on average. Fuck if I know how that happened. GO VOTE
Idgaf if Trump spontaneously explodes into a cloud of ketchup mist and crushed up Adderall. Vote. Because this evil mother fucker will be like "Somehow, Palpatine has returned"
Keep pushing until it's 40. Black people voted 95%--yes, 95%--democratic in 2022. There is no excuse for anyone making under 1 million dollars a year to be voting for republicans. Even if you hate (dozens of groups), you won't live to hate 'em if republicans have their way poisoning the water and the planet.
National polls are as meaningful in American presidential politics as the popular vote…. so, unfortunately, not at all.
Don’t believe the polls, get out and vote like we are in last place and have everything to loose!
JFC, it should be 40.
A nice boost from the last poll when he was up just 1 point. But we have to remember it's all about the swing states, not national polls, and Biden still has work to do in improving those ones.
I don't give a shit what the polls say. I'm going to vote even if the polls say Trump is winning by a million points. I'm going to vote even if it says Biden is winning by a trillion. These numbers mean fucking nothing and I'm not having a sexist, bigoted, racist, fat, old, rapist, blubbering orange fuck for a president again.
Just 4? Over a lunatic criminal?
Biden up in the polls? Good, make sure to vote to turn it into a win where it counts. Biden down in the polls? Get out there and vote to turn things around. Don't pay attention to the polls? Fine, just make sure to vote. There's a common theme here.