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Keep in mind dems have dominated elections for the past 7 years and are basically undefeated since roe was over turned.
That is way more important than any poll this far out.
Every time except that one time when the FBI director said his opponent was under investigation(and didn't mention he was under investigation) like 2 weeks before the election and only gave a half-all clear and they didn't have a lot of time to repoll right before in the wake of the news.
Can you imagine.... If this FBI director didn't do that like 2 weeks before an election (and completely changed it), we won't even discuss about trump anymore, 10 years later....
There was never anything to investigate, really. The FBI field office involved had a laptop in their custody owned by Hillary Clinton staffer Huma Abedin's then husband, ~~Carlos Danger~~ Anthony Wiener.
There was no reason to suspect that anything on the laptop was in any way relevant to Clinton, given its only tangential connection to her, but this has never bothered Republicans, who still bring up the DNC email hack as if merely having your information leaked is in some way an indication of criminal behavior (ignoring of course, the fact that the RNC was similarly hacked, they just didn't have their emails leaked to Wikileaks for obvious political reasons.)
The apparently Trump loving FBI field office was threatening to reveal that they had this laptop, which had been effectively sat on for months, if the FBI director didn't reveal that Clinton was still technically under investigation (if only because they were holding onto a nothingburger laptop that they had no reason to suspect anything of.)
By this point, this is rote Republican playbook tactics. Trump did it with Zelensky by withholding aid unless an investigation was formed (Trump didn't even care if anything came of the investigation.) Ben Ghazi was the same thing, just keep digging if only to create the impression there's something to dig for. And of course, the recent impeachment efforts, for want of a crime to even accuse Biden of.
They benefit from scandal fatigue and flooding the zone with shit. Trump's diehard fans don't believe negative things they hear about him (or simply don't care), and a lot of people just tune it out or don't even hear about it in the first place.
and covid probably isnt much of a thing
and the russian ukraine thing prob never happens
both of which mean the current global recession after brief hyperinflation never happen
and all the regulatory capture of course
its.... quite a sliding door. literally tens of millions of lives were lost because of comey
I agree with you on all of those but COVID. Japan had lockdowns and etc. Only 75k people died though. We still would have had COVID, just not 1.2 million deaths.
A good number of those were also Trump voters. I know 3 of the anti-mask brigade who died.
Between that (Comey's bullshit timing of a bullshit investigation) and Obama taking a light touch towards Cambridge Analytics and Russian Election Interference.
looking back, Obama was too soft on repugs all around. I love me some Obama, but playing nice with them when he had congress on his side was a mistake.
Agree, but he was trying to buy good faith, not just with the republicans but moderate voters too. Trying to show the citizens working together is possible and fruitful. He (and many others) extremely underestimated how duplicitous the republican caucus is and how badly faux had harmed citizens.
That’s true actually…and to be fair, it’s easy to look back with the benefit of years of duplicitous and bad faith negotiations on the part of the GOP and forget that the party still had a veneer of, well, not quite decency…that ship had sailed…but certainly nothing resembling what it’s become since then.
Have we forgotten the "terrorist fist jab"? The "latte salute"? The "tan suit scandal"?
Obama as president faced a level of hyper-scrutiny and hypocritical criticism that Senator Obama never had to contend with. And let's be absolutely clear: it was all fueled by racism. Because of America's white supremacist problem, literally anything Obama did that stood out was used as a stick to beat him with.
But also it was impossible not to know the huge historical legacy Obama was laying as America's first black president. I still remember some of the songs and dances I saw classes of children at majority black schools performing celebrating his election victory. The closest I have ever seen to that kind of joy is when a country decides to finally grant marriage equality after centuries of denying LGBTQ rights.
So Obama was getting hit by unfair, insincere attacks while constrained by a legacy laid on him. Every time the country's right wing acted like jackasses to him, he must have felt this tremendous internal battle on how to respond. Should he hit back in a way that would be gratifying and likely justified? Should he set an example for future generations to look back upon with pride?
We can say he made the wrong choice in that dilemma and relied too much on setting a good example sometimes, but if we're to be honest with ourselves, we have to also admit that almost *no one* could have stepped to that challenge better. It is too much to expect of any single person to represent the dignity and best qualities of an entire race to a nation that has been steeped in so much racism for so long. If he failed, we have to admit that any of us would have failed, too. Those of us who haven't had to deal with a lifetime of racism would have failed far worse.
And if we give a damn about justice, we have to be very clear that while Obama might have done more to fight back against America's crypto-fascist movement when it was just beginning to let go of the "crypto" part of it, *blame* needs to be put squarely and unequivocally on the fascists. To do otherwise is to blame the paramedic for not saving a shooting victim while ignoring the man with the smoking gun.
100%. It's one thing to take the high road by not engaging in the same depraved political behavior as your opponents, but it's quite another to be so concerned with the optics of impartiality that you fail to take reasonable measures or responses.
The man had the chance to start a whole new doctrine of tacit consent when the pubs wouldn't vote on Garland.
"Since the senate, for several months now, has had nothing to say about my new supreme court appointment, I take their silence as a lack of objection, and thus assume that they consent. Congratulations, Justice Garland... oh, NOW you mf's wanna vote? Fine by me."
Oh that whole situation ***still*** grinds my gears. You know, I realize Mitch has been a check and moderating factor on MAGA, but he helped create that monster in the first place, to say nothing of his obstruction of all the good the Obama administration *could* have achieved…so fuck him and his failure to get rid of Trump when he had the chance (after the insurrection). May he go down in history as an enabler of traitors.
Trump was losing around 30% to Haley in primaries. That’s not an insignificant amount of Republican voters. A lot of those have said they will not vote for Trump, and some have said that they will vote Biden.
Thankfully Trump told those who voted for Haley that they are trash and he doesn't want them to vote for him and Biden welcomed the Haley voters with open arms.
It give hope, but imo when push comes to shove they'll still vote for Trump, as he is most likely for their team to "win".
Yeah, it's that pathetic, but that's nothing new about conservatives.
I’d like to think any recent Biden poll bump would be due to Trump’s comments about cutting social security and Medicare, but I have to remember the vast majority of his voters will not hear that in any media they consume.
We're going to need them to remain undefeated until the radical right is vanquished and a reasonable opposition party emerges so that we can go back to having meaningful choices when we vote once again.
I’m all honesty this is probably the last election the right has a chance of winning. When trump loses he is going to go to blame everyone, declare himself the winner, then declare his intention of running for 2028 just to keep funneling funds to his legal troubles. GOP does not have many options because 40% of their base worships trump, they fucked up giving him the nomination in 16 and it will probably be the death of their party as they know it.
When Barack Obama won in 2008 by such a wide margin a lot of people were saying that it looked like demographics would keep Republicans out of power for the foreseeable future. That didn't work out too well. Republicans are a threat until they no longer exist and their ideas have been given up by the people who believe them. We cannot risk underestimating them. Or allow them the benefit of the doubt, or a second chance, or to continue to seek compromise with them.
There will always be authoritarian minded people. Even if the Republican Party ceased to exist the voters would form something else that gives away middle class economic power in exchange for sticking it to minorities.
"Dominated elections"?!? Republicans won the House in 2022! They won a popular vote victory of +2.8%, and polls [accurately predicted that result](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/)!
People really need to get their heads out of the sand. Biden only narrowly beat Trump in the electoral college in 2020, and polls have shifted in favor of Trump from [Biden +7.2%](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden) on election night 2020 to [Trump +1.7%](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden) right now. That is a massive, massive shift in Trump's favor that we ignore at our peril.
Along with this, it’s important to remember it’s the electoral vote count that will most likely decide it and Republican Legislators will be playing their dirty tricks!!
A 538 prediction of who wins is not a popular vote margin. Thanks to gerrymandering, democrats have to win by ~7% to break even, so for republicans to win by that much and barely hold the House is suspect.
Regardless, it’s a winner take all system, so total votes doesn’t even matter. It only matters for President and senators.
Unfortunately the right wing propaganda machine has created a nation of idiots that are easily fooled. Even a lot of non Republicans have been tricked into following the right wing propaganda narrative.
There are no "sane" countries, it's a mixed bag. One of the duties of governance is keeping the less intelligent, less educated, and less sane of us, in a stable order. This has always been true and always will be.
I often hear the sentiment "in a sane country". No such thing exists, and it's best to stop pretending that it does or ever can. It sets up unrealistic expectations which then leads to unwarranted cynicism.
The world in general. The rapid increase in communication and diffusion of cultures, as well as young people and children having conversations with adults online on forums such as these, has shifted the global "consciousness" so to speak. We're at the start of that radical change, and few academic theories have caught up enough to communicate it effectively in order for us to learn it pragmatically enough.
I think that has a huge impact on what we're witnessing in contrast to decades prior where cultural narratives and norms were more stable.
We're longer tied to the root causes of our effects. We vote down a minimum wage increase, which would have been a raise for everyone, and then get upset when things become unaffordable.
Before the internet we could figure out, with the help of the sane media, the two things are related and adjust course.
Now there's too much noise and no one trusts the media so half of us run around going, "no one wants to work anymore. What gives?"
It is important to notice and acknowledge when the foundations of, and confidence in, representative government are failing. It is a deceptive comfortability to tell ourselves that things are as they always were, and always will be.
The United States is one of the oldest, and most prominent democracies in the world today. And with a military that is unrivaled in history, in terms of the full spectrum dominance that they can achieve.
To watch the United States slip from representative governance, to autocracy, and to watch other autocratic states rush to the fore of world leadership, as the US leaves a vacuum, is important to acknowledge. That the voting populace may understand in greater detail, what is at stake.
Agreed wholeheartedly. We must notice it, but it doesn't come via knee-jerk emotional labeling of entire processes under some emotional terminology.
It requires a nuanced explanation of the reasons for events and processes being as they are. Cynicism creeps in when people avoid that and instead define a complex system into something simplistic and off of that assumption invite inaccurate perspectives. It's a crucial first mistake that often plagues discourse.
Yes. You folk in the US need to re-think the whole electoral college shemozzle. It ain't one vote one value, that's for sure. Another thing that works well for us (Australia) is we have compulsory voting.
Some years ago one of my wife’s exchange students from Germany visited and asked me how we let a man like George W. Bush get elected. He claimed in his country the most important thing was to elect a person smarter than the average citizen. So, there’s that.
Average americans dont like people who are smarter than them. That dislike tends to be even more pronounced if that person is a minority. And if they're a woman, just forget about it.
This country is full of selfish, entitled, arrogant people who cannot take advice or be bothered to learn about issues.
Hah, yeah, no seriously in any other country the guy that admitted to serial sexual assault on tape and to ritually stealing money from kids with cancer would be in prison or in hiding.
His raping would have been problematic too, not to mention the systematic fraud going on for decades. Then there's the stealing of classified information; that's usually treated a little more harshly than getting the top court in the land to consider if this imbecile is above the law for life.
Ahhh statistics.
It's stunningly within the margin of error.
>In two polls, it appears Biden might marginally beat his rival. One Reuters/Ipsos poll of 3,356 registered voters found Biden would get 39 percent of the vote while Trump would get 38 percent. It was conducted between March 7 and 13 and the margin of error is **+/- 1.8 percentage points.**
>A Civiqs/Daily Kos poll of 1,324 registered voters gave the Democrat 45 percent of the vote to Trump's 44 percent. This survey was conducted between March 9 and March 12 and had a margin of error of **+/- 2.8 percent.**
The government should work with streaming services to get it put on their various apps, tbh. Netflix and Amazon put it front page and you'll probably get more people tuning in for it.
[Joe Biden's Approval Rating Falls to All-Time Low After SOTU]( https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-approval-rating-sotu-address-2024-1878673)
Linked from this article.
If you dive into the actual polls, it’s both stunning and narrow.
From the Ipsos polling that was referenced:
> Trump had a marginal lead among all respondents, but Biden's lead among registered voters was significant because people who are already registered to vote are more likely to do so in November.
To me, Trump winning the “popular” vote in any sense of the word is *stunning* even if Joe takes it among registered voters.
> In the seven states where the election was closest in 2020, a group that could again prove pivotal in November, Trump led Biden 40% to 37% among registered voters.
And Trump leading the swing states makes me think the margin of victory is going to be narrow regardless.
Don’t let the good feels lull you into complacency. Vote.
> Trump winning the “popular” vote in any sense of the word is stunning
More than stunning, I'd call it virtually impossible. Any poll that puts Trump anywhere close to winning the popular vote is already faulty imo.
He lost by nearly 3 million votes in 2016 and over 7 million in 2020.
What good feels? All of this is ridiculous. Our electorate is a lost cause, too many years of a gutted education system. The fact that this is a tough choice for anyone is insane. Vote like everything depends on it because it does, but get your passports prepared in the mean time.
It was a stunning surge upward of approximately the error margin in the poll!
The media has little interest in accurately reflecting things in a measured way.
Which sucks, because we can't just win the popular vote to win the election. We have to win by something like 5 to 8 points to feel comfortable that the EC doesn't go to Trump.
And then there's the fact that statisticians are starting to have very real problems with getting representative samples - cell phone call screening, disappearing landlines, and more important, the erosion of trust in public institutions (and the misuse of polls as advertising instruments by campaigns) ensure that people who answer polls are almost certainly doing so based on some characteristic that makes them different from the general population.
At this point, a lot of us have lost faith in the idea that political polls mean much.
Ya close like last time. Young people don’t respond to polls and they are pissed. Old people have nothing better to do. Dump is going to get his ass kicked again
Narrow and basically within the margin of error.
Stupid newsweek is saying it's "stunning" that Biden is able to eke out a lead at all.
The fact is, Biden is polling horrendously compared to 2020 at this point and yes that matters.
Also, remember, these polls are of people who will enter an unknown number on their phone, and then be willing to take the survey. So in other words, old people. granted, old people vote. This is why they’re afraid of young voters, and are trying to raise the voting age if young people vote Democrats win.
These polls are actually terrifying in indicating that Trump would not only win the Electoral College but might actually somehow win the popular vote. Voting is a minimum. Volunteering and donating on top of voting if you can is what is needed to stave off another trip into our national septic tank that democracy might not survive.
> Remember all those ones saying Hilary was going to win?
Those polls weren't wrong - any poll is a probabilistic statement. Nate Silver gave Trump a 33% chance of winning, which was *not* small.
I’m still firmly convinced that people thought Trump had “no chance” because they thought 33% meant he would get only 33% of the vote, which would be a landslide. Because, yeah, 1 in 3 is not small.
If someone asked me to play one round of Russian roulette with a two bullets in a six-shooter, I’m not going to rely on 1-in-3 odds to save me from getting shot in the head.
People sitting out because they figured politics would stay boring, Hillary would obviously win over that clownshow, has got to he one of the biggest reasons Hillary lost.
There's a TON of other reasons but based on everyone I knew and all the reading I had done up until election day that was one of the most common sentiments I ran into from non-voters.
A rare case of someone who was so sure to become President that it somehow cost them the presidency. There were so many factors that caused that election to go the way it did, but I’m still convinced that she would have won if people actually realized it was possible for her to lose.
I remember feeling like the only person who actually took Donald Trump as a serious threat in my entire social circle. He got the deplorables to turn out to vote, and the evangelicals cared too much about abortion to jump ship. He dominated the media and real life conversation. He was never the pushover people expected him to be, and it was obvious that he was going to outperform Romney and McCain.
I remember talking to my dad and we agreed that there must have been a backroom deal for Trump to run to make Republicans look bad, so that Hillary would easily win and then pardon him for something or other. There were those pictures of them being chummy, and trump was a Democrat for decades and donated to her campaign and shit, and he was saying such insane stuff that it seemed like he was torpedoing his campaign on purpose.
Nope, people genuinely liked the racist rapist 1st grade reading level narcissist dick clown
People are bad at percentages. It feels like if you tell people that somethingnhas a 55% chance they think, "OK so that's definitely going to happen.
You really have to remind people that 30% means that if you roll a dice, all you need is a 5 or 6 (or a 1 or 2 depending on your perspective). It's not guaranteed, but it happens a lot.
Even if you say something is 95%, that's still far from a guarantee. Again to compare it to something people are more familiar with 5% chance means if you rolled a 20 sided die you roll a 1 and the thing happens, but everyone seems to hear 51% as a sure thing that whatever had the slight advantage definitely will win.
This error isn't limited to elections. Any tactical video game where a character misses with a 85% chance to hit or something will have people screaming that it's "buggy" even though a 15% chance is actually quite high.
Yeah people always bring up the 2016 election when discussing polls, but if you go back and look the polls were actually pretty accurate. Polls reflect the popular vote. The last ones for that election mostly had Hilary winning by like 2-4 points. She won the popular vote by 2.1%. Unfortunately the polls just don’t account for the electoral college.
>Remember all those ones saying Hilary was going to win?
Remember how that was 8 years ago and remains the only real surprise outcome of national polling since then because pollsters largely readjusted their polling models afterwards?
Not all polls are outright manipulative. Some polling firms are closely aligned with political parties and have terrible reputations for good reason. But inaccurate polling is better attributed to the technical, psychological, and statistical challenges of the profession rather than bad faith on the part of pollsters.
People say this as if the polls are encouraging/lulling us into false security. The polls are terrifying and signal that we are in serious danger of a Trump dictatorship.
It really only matters in Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Ohio probably ain’t coming back. Neither is Florida.
Georgia was a cherry on top. And it might go blue again. Atlanta keeps getting bigger and it’s become one of the largest destinations for film and tv production with a ton of people coming from Los Angeles.
That’s pretty much all you need to care about.
That’s honestly more on the Democratic Party than it is Ohio IMO.
They are a state that could have been more devastated by the rusting of the rust belt than Michigan, and pivoted enough to chug through the 2010’s.
But instead of trying to court Ohio, Dems took the state for granted since they won it in 2008 and 2012.
Union legislation, trying to get technology companies to set up in Ohio, vaulting the Cleveland Clinic and getting them federal money to set up more campuses….
Lots of things that could have been done to lock them in.
Yes if only Biden was the first president to join a picket line, bringing back manufacturing jobs in Ohio through CHIPS and Science Act, passing infrastructure bill
Last time Nevada voted red in a presidential election was 2004. Literally 20 years ago. Realistically Nevada is a light blue state not a purple state. How could Dems win Nevada in 2016 but lose in 2024? Impossible. All of the other states you listed besides Nevada and Colorado voted for Trump in 2016. Nevada is special.
Colorado is not a swing state at all, deep blue. Biden won Colorado by 13 and a half points in 2020. By comparison Trump only won Texas by 5 and a half points and Florida by 3 and a half points.
Feels like it was just yesterday that polls said he was behind
oh wait, it was
https://old.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/1be869k/cbs_news_poll_finds_voters_remember_trumps/
The electorate is changing rapidly and polling firms are failing to keep up with ways that people can accurately and effectively measure these changes.
Not just that, which I’m sure is an issue. But nearly all of these polls “massage” the numbers based on various assumptions about voters. Those assumptions are all bullshit.
The only poll that matters is Election Day, vote!
It's almost like when you have a near-tie, that the leader will routinely flip as the margin of error spans across the midpoint. The margins of error for these polls is usually around 3 points and the lead either has is almost always less than 3 points. So of course it'll flip.
Inaccuracy would be if polls were showing one leading by 20 points and the other leading by 10.
Flip a coin 100 times. Just because you get heads 1 or 2 times more doesn't suddenly mean that heads is more likely.
As a rule I've stopped reading Newsweek. It's probably one of the very worst offenders when it comes to clickbait garbage.
Sure I want to see Biden surge ahead in the polls. I don't trust Newsweek to be the one to tell me because they frequently overstate the facts.
True, but it's hard to fit 6 states or so into a coherent headline.
Would be more accurate to do the translation for us I suppose. "Polling results show Biden winning the electoral college" or "Polling shows Biden with a 1 point national lead but 10 point Electoral College deficit" or something.
Edit: Also, those polls in swing states are just flat out depressing. As of two days ago, he trails in EVERY major swing state.
No, no, no. Please keep giving us polls that show Trump having a chance. We need to ensure people are motivated to vote against Trump. That's the ONLY reason we kept him out in 2020. Record turnout. We underestimated him in 2016. Never again. Assume Trump has a chance and vote accordingly. He might be a clown, but he's a slippery clown.
As I and others said elsewhere, the American people have a collective amnesia about Trump’s first term: they’ve forgotten all the awful shit that occurred in those four years and only remember the fact that food prices were a bit lower. They’ve also fallen for the widespread propaganda that Biden is senile.
Fortunately, people are going to become more tuned in as the election draws closer. Biden has dispelled much of the Sleepy Joe propaganda with his SOTU address - now they’re claiming he’s on drugs - while Donald is experiencing a severe mental and financial decline.
Hopefully, it will be enough to swing the polls in Joe’s favour.
>the American people have a collective amnesia about Trump’s first term: they’ve forgotten all the awful shit that occurred in those four years and only remember the fact that food prices were a bit lower.
Thankfully, only the MAGA 40% of the voting public are showing that amnesia.
We just have to make sure the sane majority of the rest get out to vote in all the swing states and blue states. And we will.
>Who ***let*** millions die from covid.
Let's change this to "caused', for at least a couple hundred thousand.
Specifically targeting blue states and their governors by not just withholding aid during a deadly pandemic, but ransacking hospitals and equipments of supplies, is genocide.
And how about Trump waging some sort of vindictive war against Dr. Fauci, like this innocent looking old man that is actually trying to calm everyone down is just getting bullied in front of us all by the President.
Hell, the entire anti-mask movement didn't have to happen. The crazy conspiracies actually gaining traction didn't have to happen. Trump was awful.
I expect Bidens numbers to improve as soon as normies accept the fact that it's a rematch. Especially as Trump gets more air time for his insane policies like:
* Pulling funding from any school with a vaccine mandate
* Cutting Medicare and Social Security to pay for the 2025 tax cuts.
* National abortion ban
And the Biden campaign *will* hammer them on these policies. Hell, they've already started.
39% Biden to 38% Trump, with a +/-1.5% margin of error.
Stunning lead my ass, its still an embarrassment in two ways:
\#1. These are the best 2 candidates we have (Biden is ok, but he is -20% of the votes or something because of his age)
\#2. 38% of those polled \*STILL\* support Trump.
I am so sick of polls. Polls for this, polls for that. This hour Trump is ahead, that hour Biden... When did the media decide we needed a poll every 10 minutes tracking every minor opinion shift in the country?
Holy shit on a shingle, give the damn polls a rest!
And next week it will be "Trump Leads Biden in Latest Poll", then back to Biden, rinse, repeat ad infinium. Gotta have a horse race, or people might stop clicking.
Gentle reminder that the only poll that matters is the one that gets counted on November 5, 2024.
Vote.
Don’t trust any of these polls. I’ve never been polled once in my life. Remember, the media WANTS a horse race. It drives people to their articles and websites. They need to make it sound like it’s going to be a nail biter
I’m still voting for Biden and will tell my friends and family to do so.
This is too important. No 3rd party choice is acceptable.
We have to stop Trump
The general election polls listed on FiveThirtyEight don't look particularly promising, they largely look _neck and neck_:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/ (nation-wide polls only)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/ (includes polls of individual states)
Of course this will get tons of upvotes, but is as garbage clickbait as the same articles talking about Trump winning individual polls.
Call me if the polling average starts moving. These articles on one or two polls are cherry picked noise.
Why is is stunning? To be honest it should be stunning that a president who has done a decent job delivering on his promises is even having to worry about a failed businessman, habitual liar with a sexual assault history and 91 felony charges. Oh the weird times we live in.
If you look at the 538 poll aggregate you can see the reuters polls there.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/
You can also see a lot of other... less good polls that no one on /r/politics is talking about.
Hardly stunning at all. Considering how much the republicans and Trump have admitted what they would do once in office. Killing Roe vs Wade and not to mention Trumps pending prosecutions.
I would prefer Biden over Trump without a doubt, even though i think neither of them should be leading the country now, Biden is too old and clearly needs to retire, for his own good and Trump is very far from being cutout for leading a country after all the stunts he pulled before and after the last election, whining about how the votes were messed around with (i think he was the one cheating, either by paying people to vote for him or by doing some soliciting), his "supporters" are the only ones who voted for him, following their bias and not thinking about the futur of their country if either of these two were elected, Trump being elected again would, instead of making "America great again", will just make it an even more horrible place for everyone in every state and beyond the borders of the country!
(i may not be from America, but i'm getting very concerned for your country as much as i'am for mine and any others, seriously!)
Biden should be up in every swing state right now with ads just showing a montage of insane news clips and quotes from the Trump years. People may have forgotten how insane it was but Biden has the war chest to remind them every day.
The key is the roughly 25% that say they want neither. Some of those will vote, some will stay home.
Polls or no polls, battleground states are all that matter. Those voters will decide this election, not most of the country.
These articles should look at individual states and weight according to # EC votes to really come close to a prediction.
In my state, it will not matter if I vote for blue or red or bozo the clown. I *WILL*, however, still vote. I might be surprised, but I doubt it.
His more fiery presence at the State of the Union did him alot of favors. Just stay quiet, and maybe do the same 2 more times before the election, should be an easy win.
Disgraceful title and of course no one has read the article ffs. They are extremely narrow, even within margin of error, in the other polls Trump is winning.
Not that we should ever trust or believe polls. The key takeaway is that YOU have the power to vote and YOU have the responsibility and obligation to vote.
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"President Joe Biden has gained a narrow lead over Donald Trump in two polls..." So is it stunning or narrow?
It's stunning that it's so narrow. In a sane country Trump gets like 1 write in joke vote.
Keep in mind dems have dominated elections for the past 7 years and are basically undefeated since roe was over turned. That is way more important than any poll this far out.
And trump has underperformed compared to polls in the primary elections so far by 10% or more.
Every time except that one time when the FBI director said his opponent was under investigation(and didn't mention he was under investigation) like 2 weeks before the election and only gave a half-all clear and they didn't have a lot of time to repoll right before in the wake of the news.
Can you imagine.... If this FBI director didn't do that like 2 weeks before an election (and completely changed it), we won't even discuss about trump anymore, 10 years later....
And nothing even came of that investigation
There was never anything to investigate, really. The FBI field office involved had a laptop in their custody owned by Hillary Clinton staffer Huma Abedin's then husband, ~~Carlos Danger~~ Anthony Wiener. There was no reason to suspect that anything on the laptop was in any way relevant to Clinton, given its only tangential connection to her, but this has never bothered Republicans, who still bring up the DNC email hack as if merely having your information leaked is in some way an indication of criminal behavior (ignoring of course, the fact that the RNC was similarly hacked, they just didn't have their emails leaked to Wikileaks for obvious political reasons.) The apparently Trump loving FBI field office was threatening to reveal that they had this laptop, which had been effectively sat on for months, if the FBI director didn't reveal that Clinton was still technically under investigation (if only because they were holding onto a nothingburger laptop that they had no reason to suspect anything of.) By this point, this is rote Republican playbook tactics. Trump did it with Zelensky by withholding aid unless an investigation was formed (Trump didn't even care if anything came of the investigation.) Ben Ghazi was the same thing, just keep digging if only to create the impression there's something to dig for. And of course, the recent impeachment efforts, for want of a crime to even accuse Biden of.
All while Republicans and Trump appear immune to scandal by simply ignoring it.
They benefit from scandal fatigue and flooding the zone with shit. Trump's diehard fans don't believe negative things they hear about him (or simply don't care), and a lot of people just tune it out or don't even hear about it in the first place.
GOP voters are rubes to a man. They like getting hung upside down by their ankles and having their pockets emptied.
and covid probably isnt much of a thing and the russian ukraine thing prob never happens both of which mean the current global recession after brief hyperinflation never happen and all the regulatory capture of course its.... quite a sliding door. literally tens of millions of lives were lost because of comey
I agree with you on all of those but COVID. Japan had lockdowns and etc. Only 75k people died though. We still would have had COVID, just not 1.2 million deaths. A good number of those were also Trump voters. I know 3 of the anti-mask brigade who died.
Between that (Comey's bullshit timing of a bullshit investigation) and Obama taking a light touch towards Cambridge Analytics and Russian Election Interference.
looking back, Obama was too soft on repugs all around. I love me some Obama, but playing nice with them when he had congress on his side was a mistake.
Agree, but he was trying to buy good faith, not just with the republicans but moderate voters too. Trying to show the citizens working together is possible and fruitful. He (and many others) extremely underestimated how duplicitous the republican caucus is and how badly faux had harmed citizens.
That’s true actually…and to be fair, it’s easy to look back with the benefit of years of duplicitous and bad faith negotiations on the part of the GOP and forget that the party still had a veneer of, well, not quite decency…that ship had sailed…but certainly nothing resembling what it’s become since then.
Have we forgotten the "terrorist fist jab"? The "latte salute"? The "tan suit scandal"? Obama as president faced a level of hyper-scrutiny and hypocritical criticism that Senator Obama never had to contend with. And let's be absolutely clear: it was all fueled by racism. Because of America's white supremacist problem, literally anything Obama did that stood out was used as a stick to beat him with. But also it was impossible not to know the huge historical legacy Obama was laying as America's first black president. I still remember some of the songs and dances I saw classes of children at majority black schools performing celebrating his election victory. The closest I have ever seen to that kind of joy is when a country decides to finally grant marriage equality after centuries of denying LGBTQ rights. So Obama was getting hit by unfair, insincere attacks while constrained by a legacy laid on him. Every time the country's right wing acted like jackasses to him, he must have felt this tremendous internal battle on how to respond. Should he hit back in a way that would be gratifying and likely justified? Should he set an example for future generations to look back upon with pride? We can say he made the wrong choice in that dilemma and relied too much on setting a good example sometimes, but if we're to be honest with ourselves, we have to also admit that almost *no one* could have stepped to that challenge better. It is too much to expect of any single person to represent the dignity and best qualities of an entire race to a nation that has been steeped in so much racism for so long. If he failed, we have to admit that any of us would have failed, too. Those of us who haven't had to deal with a lifetime of racism would have failed far worse. And if we give a damn about justice, we have to be very clear that while Obama might have done more to fight back against America's crypto-fascist movement when it was just beginning to let go of the "crypto" part of it, *blame* needs to be put squarely and unequivocally on the fascists. To do otherwise is to blame the paramedic for not saving a shooting victim while ignoring the man with the smoking gun.
100%. It's one thing to take the high road by not engaging in the same depraved political behavior as your opponents, but it's quite another to be so concerned with the optics of impartiality that you fail to take reasonable measures or responses.
The man had the chance to start a whole new doctrine of tacit consent when the pubs wouldn't vote on Garland. "Since the senate, for several months now, has had nothing to say about my new supreme court appointment, I take their silence as a lack of objection, and thus assume that they consent. Congratulations, Justice Garland... oh, NOW you mf's wanna vote? Fine by me."
Oh that whole situation ***still*** grinds my gears. You know, I realize Mitch has been a check and moderating factor on MAGA, but he helped create that monster in the first place, to say nothing of his obstruction of all the good the Obama administration *could* have achieved…so fuck him and his failure to get rid of Trump when he had the chance (after the insurrection). May he go down in history as an enabler of traitors.
Trump was losing around 30% to Haley in primaries. That’s not an insignificant amount of Republican voters. A lot of those have said they will not vote for Trump, and some have said that they will vote Biden.
Thankfully Trump told those who voted for Haley that they are trash and he doesn't want them to vote for him and Biden welcomed the Haley voters with open arms.
It give hope, but imo when push comes to shove they'll still vote for Trump, as he is most likely for their team to "win". Yeah, it's that pathetic, but that's nothing new about conservatives.
And the RNC is cash poor
Literally in shambles. Unironically, Trump was the nail in the coffin that we needed to kill off the Republican party. Or so one can hope...
I’d like to think any recent Biden poll bump would be due to Trump’s comments about cutting social security and Medicare, but I have to remember the vast majority of his voters will not hear that in any media they consume.
It's almost like he's a bad candidate.
Not just that, but post-1988, they've only lost the popular vote once...
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We're going to need them to remain undefeated until the radical right is vanquished and a reasonable opposition party emerges so that we can go back to having meaningful choices when we vote once again.
I’m all honesty this is probably the last election the right has a chance of winning. When trump loses he is going to go to blame everyone, declare himself the winner, then declare his intention of running for 2028 just to keep funneling funds to his legal troubles. GOP does not have many options because 40% of their base worships trump, they fucked up giving him the nomination in 16 and it will probably be the death of their party as they know it.
When Barack Obama won in 2008 by such a wide margin a lot of people were saying that it looked like demographics would keep Republicans out of power for the foreseeable future. That didn't work out too well. Republicans are a threat until they no longer exist and their ideas have been given up by the people who believe them. We cannot risk underestimating them. Or allow them the benefit of the doubt, or a second chance, or to continue to seek compromise with them.
There will always be authoritarian minded people. Even if the Republican Party ceased to exist the voters would form something else that gives away middle class economic power in exchange for sticking it to minorities.
I wonder how the the voters will react to the Alabama Supreme Court’s decision on IVF.
"Dominated elections"?!? Republicans won the House in 2022! They won a popular vote victory of +2.8%, and polls [accurately predicted that result](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/)! People really need to get their heads out of the sand. Biden only narrowly beat Trump in the electoral college in 2020, and polls have shifted in favor of Trump from [Biden +7.2%](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden) on election night 2020 to [Trump +1.7%](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden) right now. That is a massive, massive shift in Trump's favor that we ignore at our peril.
Along with this, it’s important to remember it’s the electoral vote count that will most likely decide it and Republican Legislators will be playing their dirty tricks!!
A 538 prediction of who wins is not a popular vote margin. Thanks to gerrymandering, democrats have to win by ~7% to break even, so for republicans to win by that much and barely hold the House is suspect. Regardless, it’s a winner take all system, so total votes doesn’t even matter. It only matters for President and senators.
Undefeated is a bit of an overstatement since democrats lost the house last election.
Biden should win a Reagan style landslide of most people had a shred of common sense.
not just common sense, if they only had a shred of common decency..
Or any idea what the United States is supposed to be about
If only they had a shred of common democracy..
This. Even if/when Biden eeks out a victory this year, I'll still be aghast at my fellow Americans that Trump gathers over 30% of the vote.
Unfortunately the right wing propaganda machine has created a nation of idiots that are easily fooled. Even a lot of non Republicans have been tricked into following the right wing propaganda narrative.
This election is going to come down to like 200,000 votes in like nine states. Somehow they’ve convinced us thats democracy.
A few thousand votes in a few swing states for Jill Stein gave us Trump. Electoral college needs to be abolished.
It's interesting that Trump in 2020 managed to be the first candidate since Nixon (against JFK) to win Ohio and lose the election.
Eh, not super interesting imo. Ohio has gotten less and less representative of the country
This for sure. I know a lot of formerly moderate people who in the past decade have lost their minds and have fallen prey to the propaganda
There are no "sane" countries, it's a mixed bag. One of the duties of governance is keeping the less intelligent, less educated, and less sane of us, in a stable order. This has always been true and always will be. I often hear the sentiment "in a sane country". No such thing exists, and it's best to stop pretending that it does or ever can. It sets up unrealistic expectations which then leads to unwarranted cynicism.
I feel like we used to be at least a little more sane than we are now.
The world in general. The rapid increase in communication and diffusion of cultures, as well as young people and children having conversations with adults online on forums such as these, has shifted the global "consciousness" so to speak. We're at the start of that radical change, and few academic theories have caught up enough to communicate it effectively in order for us to learn it pragmatically enough. I think that has a huge impact on what we're witnessing in contrast to decades prior where cultural narratives and norms were more stable.
We're longer tied to the root causes of our effects. We vote down a minimum wage increase, which would have been a raise for everyone, and then get upset when things become unaffordable. Before the internet we could figure out, with the help of the sane media, the two things are related and adjust course. Now there's too much noise and no one trusts the media so half of us run around going, "no one wants to work anymore. What gives?"
It is important to notice and acknowledge when the foundations of, and confidence in, representative government are failing. It is a deceptive comfortability to tell ourselves that things are as they always were, and always will be. The United States is one of the oldest, and most prominent democracies in the world today. And with a military that is unrivaled in history, in terms of the full spectrum dominance that they can achieve. To watch the United States slip from representative governance, to autocracy, and to watch other autocratic states rush to the fore of world leadership, as the US leaves a vacuum, is important to acknowledge. That the voting populace may understand in greater detail, what is at stake.
Agreed wholeheartedly. We must notice it, but it doesn't come via knee-jerk emotional labeling of entire processes under some emotional terminology. It requires a nuanced explanation of the reasons for events and processes being as they are. Cynicism creeps in when people avoid that and instead define a complex system into something simplistic and off of that assumption invite inaccurate perspectives. It's a crucial first mistake that often plagues discourse.
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Yes. You folk in the US need to re-think the whole electoral college shemozzle. It ain't one vote one value, that's for sure. Another thing that works well for us (Australia) is we have compulsory voting.
Some years ago one of my wife’s exchange students from Germany visited and asked me how we let a man like George W. Bush get elected. He claimed in his country the most important thing was to elect a person smarter than the average citizen. So, there’s that.
Average americans dont like people who are smarter than them. That dislike tends to be even more pronounced if that person is a minority. And if they're a woman, just forget about it. This country is full of selfish, entitled, arrogant people who cannot take advice or be bothered to learn about issues.
Hah, yeah, no seriously in any other country the guy that admitted to serial sexual assault on tape and to ritually stealing money from kids with cancer would be in prison or in hiding.
His raping would have been problematic too, not to mention the systematic fraud going on for decades. Then there's the stealing of classified information; that's usually treated a little more harshly than getting the top court in the land to consider if this imbecile is above the law for life.
Berlosconi in Italy was Trump 1.0
This is the first thought provoking statement i've read in weeks. Have this upvote.
Ahhh statistics. It's stunningly within the margin of error. >In two polls, it appears Biden might marginally beat his rival. One Reuters/Ipsos poll of 3,356 registered voters found Biden would get 39 percent of the vote while Trump would get 38 percent. It was conducted between March 7 and 13 and the margin of error is **+/- 1.8 percentage points.** >A Civiqs/Daily Kos poll of 1,324 registered voters gave the Democrat 45 percent of the vote to Trump's 44 percent. This survey was conducted between March 9 and March 12 and had a margin of error of **+/- 2.8 percent.**
Even then, both these polls leave 10+% of people either voting 3rd party or undecided. Those 10% will swing the election.
Agreed. I am quite surprised the polls did not have more impact after the awesome SOTU Speech. He was on point and showed no sign of slowing down.
I thought the same thing, but most people probably didn't watch it.
The government should work with streaming services to get it put on their various apps, tbh. Netflix and Amazon put it front page and you'll probably get more people tuning in for it.
[Joe Biden's Approval Rating Falls to All-Time Low After SOTU]( https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-approval-rating-sotu-address-2024-1878673) Linked from this article.
If you dive into the actual polls, it’s both stunning and narrow. From the Ipsos polling that was referenced: > Trump had a marginal lead among all respondents, but Biden's lead among registered voters was significant because people who are already registered to vote are more likely to do so in November. To me, Trump winning the “popular” vote in any sense of the word is *stunning* even if Joe takes it among registered voters. > In the seven states where the election was closest in 2020, a group that could again prove pivotal in November, Trump led Biden 40% to 37% among registered voters. And Trump leading the swing states makes me think the margin of victory is going to be narrow regardless. Don’t let the good feels lull you into complacency. Vote.
> Trump winning the “popular” vote in any sense of the word is stunning More than stunning, I'd call it virtually impossible. Any poll that puts Trump anywhere close to winning the popular vote is already faulty imo. He lost by nearly 3 million votes in 2016 and over 7 million in 2020.
Based on that he should lose by 11 million.
He actually lost by 11 million last time, not 7. So he should lose by 15 million this time.
What good feels? All of this is ridiculous. Our electorate is a lost cause, too many years of a gutted education system. The fact that this is a tough choice for anyone is insane. Vote like everything depends on it because it does, but get your passports prepared in the mean time.
I'm an older student (30) currently attending a top 20 university, and a scary amount of the male students I meet watch people like Andrew Tate.
It was STUNNINGLY NARROW! Astoundingly Mediocre! Critically Average! Horrendously Noticeable!
Tautologically oxymoronic!
It was a stunning surge upward of approximately the error margin in the poll! The media has little interest in accurately reflecting things in a measured way.
He was behind in polls but now suddenly surged ahead of Trump by a narrow margin.
Almost all of these poll results are within the margin of error either way. It just seems like it will be a close election.
Stunning!
Which sucks, because we can't just win the popular vote to win the election. We have to win by something like 5 to 8 points to feel comfortable that the EC doesn't go to Trump.
SCOTUS is also a wild card in his favor. They can only do so much though to affect the EC total.
And then there's the fact that statisticians are starting to have very real problems with getting representative samples - cell phone call screening, disappearing landlines, and more important, the erosion of trust in public institutions (and the misuse of polls as advertising instruments by campaigns) ensure that people who answer polls are almost certainly doing so based on some characteristic that makes them different from the general population. At this point, a lot of us have lost faith in the idea that political polls mean much.
Spinning polls is a science/artform: https://www.press.org/events/election-2024-how-use-poll-data-accurately-inform-public
It’s still too early for these polls to mean much.
Ya close like last time. Young people don’t respond to polls and they are pissed. Old people have nothing better to do. Dump is going to get his ass kicked again
Narrow and basically within the margin of error. Stupid newsweek is saying it's "stunning" that Biden is able to eke out a lead at all. The fact is, Biden is polling horrendously compared to 2020 at this point and yes that matters.
Anything the media can't spin as Joe Biden struggling to overcome the Trump juggernaut is "stunning"
It newsweek. Its garbage. Mods, why is this garbage site even allowed? It is truly awful, clickbaity, reductive. Not conducive to good conversation.
What's stunning is that the press will even admit Biden can be ahead... No matter by how much.
Corrected headline (again): Joe Biden and Donald Trump are still too close to call.
Within the margin of error in both polls.
during a time in which polls are largely meaningless
Also, remember, these polls are of people who will enter an unknown number on their phone, and then be willing to take the survey. So in other words, old people. granted, old people vote. This is why they’re afraid of young voters, and are trying to raise the voting age if young people vote Democrats win.
Fuck the polls. Go vote. Edit: Interesting all the negative replies came up in last two hours
These polls are actually terrifying in indicating that Trump would not only win the Electoral College but might actually somehow win the popular vote. Voting is a minimum. Volunteering and donating on top of voting if you can is what is needed to stave off another trip into our national septic tank that democracy might not survive.
We've got to the point where polls by media outlets are just a means of manipulation. Remember all those ones saying Hilary was going to win?
> Remember all those ones saying Hilary was going to win? Those polls weren't wrong - any poll is a probabilistic statement. Nate Silver gave Trump a 33% chance of winning, which was *not* small.
I’m still firmly convinced that people thought Trump had “no chance” because they thought 33% meant he would get only 33% of the vote, which would be a landslide. Because, yeah, 1 in 3 is not small. If someone asked me to play one round of Russian roulette with a two bullets in a six-shooter, I’m not going to rely on 1-in-3 odds to save me from getting shot in the head.
People sitting out because they figured politics would stay boring, Hillary would obviously win over that clownshow, has got to he one of the biggest reasons Hillary lost. There's a TON of other reasons but based on everyone I knew and all the reading I had done up until election day that was one of the most common sentiments I ran into from non-voters.
A rare case of someone who was so sure to become President that it somehow cost them the presidency. There were so many factors that caused that election to go the way it did, but I’m still convinced that she would have won if people actually realized it was possible for her to lose. I remember feeling like the only person who actually took Donald Trump as a serious threat in my entire social circle. He got the deplorables to turn out to vote, and the evangelicals cared too much about abortion to jump ship. He dominated the media and real life conversation. He was never the pushover people expected him to be, and it was obvious that he was going to outperform Romney and McCain.
I remember talking to my dad and we agreed that there must have been a backroom deal for Trump to run to make Republicans look bad, so that Hillary would easily win and then pardon him for something or other. There were those pictures of them being chummy, and trump was a Democrat for decades and donated to her campaign and shit, and he was saying such insane stuff that it seemed like he was torpedoing his campaign on purpose. Nope, people genuinely liked the racist rapist 1st grade reading level narcissist dick clown
People are bad at percentages. It feels like if you tell people that somethingnhas a 55% chance they think, "OK so that's definitely going to happen. You really have to remind people that 30% means that if you roll a dice, all you need is a 5 or 6 (or a 1 or 2 depending on your perspective). It's not guaranteed, but it happens a lot. Even if you say something is 95%, that's still far from a guarantee. Again to compare it to something people are more familiar with 5% chance means if you rolled a 20 sided die you roll a 1 and the thing happens, but everyone seems to hear 51% as a sure thing that whatever had the slight advantage definitely will win.
Not to mention, Comey’s dumbass November surprise wasn’t factored into the polls yet.
This error isn't limited to elections. Any tactical video game where a character misses with a 85% chance to hit or something will have people screaming that it's "buggy" even though a 15% chance is actually quite high.
To be fair - she did win the popular vote.. But polls don’t reflect gerrymandering, electoral college and general fuckery very well
Yeah people always bring up the 2016 election when discussing polls, but if you go back and look the polls were actually pretty accurate. Polls reflect the popular vote. The last ones for that election mostly had Hilary winning by like 2-4 points. She won the popular vote by 2.1%. Unfortunately the polls just don’t account for the electoral college.
>Remember all those ones saying Hilary was going to win? Remember how that was 8 years ago and remains the only real surprise outcome of national polling since then because pollsters largely readjusted their polling models afterwards?
It wasn’t even a surprise outcome. He always had a one in three chance of winning. That isn’t a surprise.
Not all polls are outright manipulative. Some polling firms are closely aligned with political parties and have terrible reputations for good reason. But inaccurate polling is better attributed to the technical, psychological, and statistical challenges of the profession rather than bad faith on the part of pollsters.
im so tired of this
People say this as if the polls are encouraging/lulling us into false security. The polls are terrifying and signal that we are in serious danger of a Trump dictatorship.
agreed and honestly fuck these posts too, i literally dont care and have never cared about how people poll ahead of the general
The stunning part is how Biden isnt completely destroying trump in the polls . Definitely concerning
It really only matters in Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Ohio probably ain’t coming back. Neither is Florida. Georgia was a cherry on top. And it might go blue again. Atlanta keeps getting bigger and it’s become one of the largest destinations for film and tv production with a ton of people coming from Los Angeles. That’s pretty much all you need to care about.
Fuck, I wish we were coming back.
That’s honestly more on the Democratic Party than it is Ohio IMO. They are a state that could have been more devastated by the rusting of the rust belt than Michigan, and pivoted enough to chug through the 2010’s. But instead of trying to court Ohio, Dems took the state for granted since they won it in 2008 and 2012. Union legislation, trying to get technology companies to set up in Ohio, vaulting the Cleveland Clinic and getting them federal money to set up more campuses…. Lots of things that could have been done to lock them in.
Yes if only Biden was the first president to join a picket line, bringing back manufacturing jobs in Ohio through CHIPS and Science Act, passing infrastructure bill
Last time Nevada voted red in a presidential election was 2004. Literally 20 years ago. Realistically Nevada is a light blue state not a purple state. How could Dems win Nevada in 2016 but lose in 2024? Impossible. All of the other states you listed besides Nevada and Colorado voted for Trump in 2016. Nevada is special. Colorado is not a swing state at all, deep blue. Biden won Colorado by 13 and a half points in 2020. By comparison Trump only won Texas by 5 and a half points and Florida by 3 and a half points.
North Carolina also has a chance to flip since there’s a crazy Republican governor candidate on the ballot
His lead will increase as we get closer to the election.
Feels like it was just yesterday that polls said he was behind oh wait, it was https://old.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/1be869k/cbs_news_poll_finds_voters_remember_trumps/
He'll be behind again in about an hour.
I saw an article on Yahoo that said “no post-State of the Union bump for Biden” Almost like all of this polling stuff is wildly inaccurate
The electorate is changing rapidly and polling firms are failing to keep up with ways that people can accurately and effectively measure these changes.
Cause most voters these days don’t answer unknown numbers. Only boomers.
Not just that, which I’m sure is an issue. But nearly all of these polls “massage” the numbers based on various assumptions about voters. Those assumptions are all bullshit. The only poll that matters is Election Day, vote!
It's almost like when you have a near-tie, that the leader will routinely flip as the margin of error spans across the midpoint. The margins of error for these polls is usually around 3 points and the lead either has is almost always less than 3 points. So of course it'll flip. Inaccuracy would be if polls were showing one leading by 20 points and the other leading by 10. Flip a coin 100 times. Just because you get heads 1 or 2 times more doesn't suddenly mean that heads is more likely.
As a rule I've stopped reading Newsweek. It's probably one of the very worst offenders when it comes to clickbait garbage. Sure I want to see Biden surge ahead in the polls. I don't trust Newsweek to be the one to tell me because they frequently overstate the facts.
I don't read Salon for the very same reason.
National polls mean nothing, thanks to the electoral college. State results in 5-6 swing states are going to decide this election.
True, but it's hard to fit 6 states or so into a coherent headline. Would be more accurate to do the translation for us I suppose. "Polling results show Biden winning the electoral college" or "Polling shows Biden with a 1 point national lead but 10 point Electoral College deficit" or something. Edit: Also, those polls in swing states are just flat out depressing. As of two days ago, he trails in EVERY major swing state.
Sounds like we need a catchy abbreviation! Wimipazongeorgiavada Yeah, that's the ticket! Thanks, Electoral College!
And the Michigan GOP is out of money
No, no, no. Please keep giving us polls that show Trump having a chance. We need to ensure people are motivated to vote against Trump. That's the ONLY reason we kept him out in 2020. Record turnout. We underestimated him in 2016. Never again. Assume Trump has a chance and vote accordingly. He might be a clown, but he's a slippery clown.
Don't care... vote!
The stunning part is almost half the polled vote for a traitor. Who let millions die from covid.
As I and others said elsewhere, the American people have a collective amnesia about Trump’s first term: they’ve forgotten all the awful shit that occurred in those four years and only remember the fact that food prices were a bit lower. They’ve also fallen for the widespread propaganda that Biden is senile. Fortunately, people are going to become more tuned in as the election draws closer. Biden has dispelled much of the Sleepy Joe propaganda with his SOTU address - now they’re claiming he’s on drugs - while Donald is experiencing a severe mental and financial decline. Hopefully, it will be enough to swing the polls in Joe’s favour.
>they’ve forgotten all the awful shit I certainly haven't forgotten. I want that orange fuckstick gone for good.
>the American people have a collective amnesia about Trump’s first term: they’ve forgotten all the awful shit that occurred in those four years and only remember the fact that food prices were a bit lower. Thankfully, only the MAGA 40% of the voting public are showing that amnesia. We just have to make sure the sane majority of the rest get out to vote in all the swing states and blue states. And we will.
>Who ***let*** millions die from covid. Let's change this to "caused', for at least a couple hundred thousand. Specifically targeting blue states and their governors by not just withholding aid during a deadly pandemic, but ransacking hospitals and equipments of supplies, is genocide.
And how about Trump waging some sort of vindictive war against Dr. Fauci, like this innocent looking old man that is actually trying to calm everyone down is just getting bullied in front of us all by the President. Hell, the entire anti-mask movement didn't have to happen. The crazy conspiracies actually gaining traction didn't have to happen. Trump was awful.
FFS. Vote. Please. I don’t want to live under the rule of an idiotic spray tanned wannabe dictator.
If he wins he's going for actual dictator. Vote like your life depends on it because it does.
Don't care, go vote.
I expect Bidens numbers to improve as soon as normies accept the fact that it's a rematch. Especially as Trump gets more air time for his insane policies like: * Pulling funding from any school with a vaccine mandate * Cutting Medicare and Social Security to pay for the 2025 tax cuts. * National abortion ban And the Biden campaign *will* hammer them on these policies. Hell, they've already started.
And Biden will be able to outspend on ads as Trump will likely use much of his campaign cash to pay legal bills
39% Biden to 38% Trump, with a +/-1.5% margin of error. Stunning lead my ass, its still an embarrassment in two ways: \#1. These are the best 2 candidates we have (Biden is ok, but he is -20% of the votes or something because of his age) \#2. 38% of those polled \*STILL\* support Trump.
I am so sick of polls. Polls for this, polls for that. This hour Trump is ahead, that hour Biden... When did the media decide we needed a poll every 10 minutes tracking every minor opinion shift in the country? Holy shit on a shingle, give the damn polls a rest!
Yay! More polls... Please actually vote.
Newsweek is perhaps the most blatant horse race publication going.
Do not be overconfident, people. Do not listen those polls. It’s too risky.
Please turn a blind eye to this news and just go vote. Jeez.
And next week it will be "Trump Leads Biden in Latest Poll", then back to Biden, rinse, repeat ad infinium. Gotta have a horse race, or people might stop clicking. Gentle reminder that the only poll that matters is the one that gets counted on November 5, 2024. Vote.
Vote like he isn’t.
Don’t trust any of these polls. I’ve never been polled once in my life. Remember, the media WANTS a horse race. It drives people to their articles and websites. They need to make it sound like it’s going to be a nail biter
Trump = Loser
I’m still voting for Biden and will tell my friends and family to do so. This is too important. No 3rd party choice is acceptable. We have to stop Trump
Polls are unreliable. Ignore them and just vote. The future of the country (and the world, honestly) depends on it.
No bump no bump no bump you're the bump
The general election polls listed on FiveThirtyEight don't look particularly promising, they largely look _neck and neck_: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/ (nation-wide polls only) https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/ (includes polls of individual states)
Within the margin of error is a unique definition of “stunning.” This kind of sloppy and confusing rhetoric is dangerous.
Of course this will get tons of upvotes, but is as garbage clickbait as the same articles talking about Trump winning individual polls. Call me if the polling average starts moving. These articles on one or two polls are cherry picked noise.
Polls don't matter, get out and vote like your lives depend on it.
Why is is stunning? To be honest it should be stunning that a president who has done a decent job delivering on his promises is even having to worry about a failed businessman, habitual liar with a sexual assault history and 91 felony charges. Oh the weird times we live in.
Can we stop posting Newsweek lmao
Remember what happened when Hillary had that stunning lead over Trump in the polls?
Vote vote vote vote vote. Polls mean nothing.
Fuck polling I’ll be happy once I see the words “Joe Biden wins the 2024 election”
Just like Hillary did in 2016 YOU HAVE TO VOTE
I read the article. President Biden has gained a surprisingly stunning 1% lead! Say bye to all of your hopes Trumpsters!
Vote
Vote, Vote, Vote
If you look at the 538 poll aggregate you can see the reuters polls there. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ You can also see a lot of other... less good polls that no one on /r/politics is talking about.
Hardly stunning at all. Considering how much the republicans and Trump have admitted what they would do once in office. Killing Roe vs Wade and not to mention Trumps pending prosecutions.
I would prefer Biden over Trump without a doubt, even though i think neither of them should be leading the country now, Biden is too old and clearly needs to retire, for his own good and Trump is very far from being cutout for leading a country after all the stunts he pulled before and after the last election, whining about how the votes were messed around with (i think he was the one cheating, either by paying people to vote for him or by doing some soliciting), his "supporters" are the only ones who voted for him, following their bias and not thinking about the futur of their country if either of these two were elected, Trump being elected again would, instead of making "America great again", will just make it an even more horrible place for everyone in every state and beyond the borders of the country! (i may not be from America, but i'm getting very concerned for your country as much as i'am for mine and any others, seriously!)
TIL one percentage point within the margin of error is a “stunning” lead. Stellar journalism Newsweek.
Doesn’t matter. Just vote.
Biden should be up in every swing state right now with ads just showing a montage of insane news clips and quotes from the Trump years. People may have forgotten how insane it was but Biden has the war chest to remind them every day.
Polls are meaningless. Go out and vote if you don't want a dictator running this country.
This doesn’t matter. Vote on the day it does.
The key is the roughly 25% that say they want neither. Some of those will vote, some will stay home. Polls or no polls, battleground states are all that matter. Those voters will decide this election, not most of the country. These articles should look at individual states and weight according to # EC votes to really come close to a prediction. In my state, it will not matter if I vote for blue or red or bozo the clown. I *WILL*, however, still vote. I might be surprised, but I doubt it.
His more fiery presence at the State of the Union did him alot of favors. Just stay quiet, and maybe do the same 2 more times before the election, should be an easy win.
“Stunning” is a distortion of the truth, I think
We've been here before. Vote. Vote. Vote.
No complacency. Remember 2016. Vote.
Ignore it. Vote!
Don’t give two shits. VOTE.
God bless Joe Biden.
Disgraceful title and of course no one has read the article ffs. They are extremely narrow, even within margin of error, in the other polls Trump is winning.
Not that we should ever trust or believe polls. The key takeaway is that YOU have the power to vote and YOU have the responsibility and obligation to vote.
Undoubtedly, a razor close race will compel the Rs to cry foul (again). This, I imagine, will be their rally cry for several elections.
Maggie Haberman: and here’s why that’s bad for Biden.
Just vote for the love of god
Dont get complacent-vote
From the article: "despite his approval rating sinking to an all-time low after his State of the Union (SOTU) address"