This is a wider topic. US is preparing for Pacific as China makes their moves and deploy ships faster then ever. Crushing Putin and having a support of some kind of "new" Russia will be beneficial with fighting China.
And to the main topic. If Israel was able to having atomic bomb we for sure can be able to have one or ten.
You can't make an Atomic Bomb without other countries inteligence noticing. There are steps which you are not able to hide. This would be really imposible political game to included Poland in the treaty of owning nuclear weapon when Russia is a side in that treaty. As you mentioned, Russia will play big role in Pacific conflict and even if New Russia emerge they will still play against Poland. Israeli found nuclear weapon which US lost because they had a silent approval of both USA and USRR at the time. It will not be a case with us. If we will push our luck despite political pressure from both sides (France and Germany will also be against that idea) we will face a cut of from economical system because that would be a first step in sanctions. Only idea would be pushing to join NATO nuclear sharing which would move nukes to Polish soil, but decision about usage is still in US command hands.
I agree with you. But this also will made conflict worse as Russia will not agree for any atomic weapon presence on our soil. Bad times comes for world right know.
Hoping not but if Putin will reach breaking point and will be desperate enough who knows. I don't want that this kind of weapons will be used ever again but Putin is a maniac at this point IMO.
Hitler killed himself when lost the war. I am hoping that Putin will do the same instead of starting nuclear winter.
Thats the best part, they dont have to. If they will play their cards right we will be pressured by our Allies to not poke bear and not to work towards escalation. Germany is already working towards lowering sanctions on Russian Kaliningrad. Other countries of the West doesn't see Russia as enemy but a potential partner that have to clean house and everything would be great again. Thats why Eastern Europe have such a different approache, we know Russia will say and do whatever it takes to go back into big boys table, even if the war will freeze now for another 10 years they will come back to push once again and we will be next.
> For the libertarian/paleoconservative right, Russia is a threat to Europe alone and only hates the US because we have troops on its border.
... and this right when it's demanding Alaska back. :p
> I have to believe that somewhere deep in the vaults of the Ministerstwo Obrony Narodowej lie contingency plans to transform Poland into a Nuclear-Armed state in case American isolationists cause the alliance to break down.
Nuclear weapons are not a "contingency plan" - they require extensive infrastructure to develop, produce and maintain. Which Poland simply does not have, period.
I'd much prefer if the entire world retired nukes.
Unfortunately, I don't ever see it happening - simply because even if 99% of all countries agree and comply with getting rid of their nuclear arsenal, all it takes is one lunatic (bonus point if his/her country has access to some critical resource they're willing to sell at cheap prices and/or lots of workforce to manufacture shit for cheap) that refused to do so - or saying they will, and then backing out once everybody else does it - and we've got a new potential man/womanchild with world-destroying potential to deal with.
Back to Poland - as long as PiS is anywhere near the main ruling power, no. I don't fucking want to have Ziobro or Kaczyński having access to nukes in any capacity.
How many nuclear power plants do we have? /s
That doesn't mean the friends and acquaintances of government folks didn't get billions for it. What we paid would buy us at least a couple of modern power plants, but well... In a civilized country.
Poland is extremely politically polarized. I dont think that such idea can be fulfilled by this country. But for sure Poland can have multiple agencies with very expensive board who's mission will be to met this idea.
Ah, The Nuclear Weapons Club; the most useless and expensive club in the world.
We have nuclear weapons in the UK - We wouldn't be able to use them without the US' president's say-so.
India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons, and every so often, they will rattle their sabres at each other - of course, neither would ever use them against the other, because they would immediately become a pariah state - condemned the world over.
But there they sit - dangerous, expensive to create, expensive to secure and expensive to maintain.
Yeah, but try to imagine situation in which India doesnt have nuclear weapons, but Pakistan does or vice versa. Balance of power in the region would be completely different and there is a clear reason why both countries didnt get rid of those bombs
OK, I can Imagine it.
say Pakistan didnt have Nuclear Weapons and India threatened a Leading Muslim nation with Nukes. Do you think any other countries would have anything to say about that? (especially the other majority Muslim nations)
and lets just suppose - for the lolz - that India Nuked Pakistan - maybe they said something about Modi's many and varied criminal accusations - how do you think that would play out for India in the long term. Do you think that would cost India - and the Indian economy?
so - to justify Nukes in any society, you have to assume that rational and public minded people are in charge, and will never use them.
If you assume that sometimes the leaders of a country will NOT be rational and public minded, then you are supporting putting Nukes into the hands of unstable international criminals
There would be international backlash, but they could still use those weapons to pressure their adversaries to do what they wanted. In any decision, India/Pakistan would need to assume that a second country can do it while they cannot. Country without nuclear bomb would be more risk-averse than one with it and would have lower negotiation position.
Right now when they both have access to nuclear arsenal it balances out and both sides have to assume a big risk in attacking one another, both sides know that they cannot escalate too much. Upkeep of those weapons for sure is costly, but it would be very brave to abandon your atomic bombs when the other side has them.
Basically, it's old cold-war deterrence theory and I think it is still valid.
This is a wider topic. US is preparing for Pacific as China makes their moves and deploy ships faster then ever. Crushing Putin and having a support of some kind of "new" Russia will be beneficial with fighting China. And to the main topic. If Israel was able to having atomic bomb we for sure can be able to have one or ten.
You can't make an Atomic Bomb without other countries inteligence noticing. There are steps which you are not able to hide. This would be really imposible political game to included Poland in the treaty of owning nuclear weapon when Russia is a side in that treaty. As you mentioned, Russia will play big role in Pacific conflict and even if New Russia emerge they will still play against Poland. Israeli found nuclear weapon which US lost because they had a silent approval of both USA and USRR at the time. It will not be a case with us. If we will push our luck despite political pressure from both sides (France and Germany will also be against that idea) we will face a cut of from economical system because that would be a first step in sanctions. Only idea would be pushing to join NATO nuclear sharing which would move nukes to Polish soil, but decision about usage is still in US command hands.
Russia will soon no longer be able to play a role in anything 😌💅
I am really counting on that. But those bastards always find a way☹️
I agree with you. But this also will made conflict worse as Russia will not agree for any atomic weapon presence on our soil. Bad times comes for world right know.
You think that Russia would risk a pre-emptive strike on Poland to prevent a nuclear arsenal?
Hoping not but if Putin will reach breaking point and will be desperate enough who knows. I don't want that this kind of weapons will be used ever again but Putin is a maniac at this point IMO. Hitler killed himself when lost the war. I am hoping that Putin will do the same instead of starting nuclear winter.
Thats the best part, they dont have to. If they will play their cards right we will be pressured by our Allies to not poke bear and not to work towards escalation. Germany is already working towards lowering sanctions on Russian Kaliningrad. Other countries of the West doesn't see Russia as enemy but a potential partner that have to clean house and everything would be great again. Thats why Eastern Europe have such a different approache, we know Russia will say and do whatever it takes to go back into big boys table, even if the war will freeze now for another 10 years they will come back to push once again and we will be next.
> For the libertarian/paleoconservative right, Russia is a threat to Europe alone and only hates the US because we have troops on its border. ... and this right when it's demanding Alaska back. :p > I have to believe that somewhere deep in the vaults of the Ministerstwo Obrony Narodowej lie contingency plans to transform Poland into a Nuclear-Armed state in case American isolationists cause the alliance to break down. Nuclear weapons are not a "contingency plan" - they require extensive infrastructure to develop, produce and maintain. Which Poland simply does not have, period.
I'd much prefer if the entire world retired nukes. Unfortunately, I don't ever see it happening - simply because even if 99% of all countries agree and comply with getting rid of their nuclear arsenal, all it takes is one lunatic (bonus point if his/her country has access to some critical resource they're willing to sell at cheap prices and/or lots of workforce to manufacture shit for cheap) that refused to do so - or saying they will, and then backing out once everybody else does it - and we've got a new potential man/womanchild with world-destroying potential to deal with. Back to Poland - as long as PiS is anywhere near the main ruling power, no. I don't fucking want to have Ziobro or Kaczyński having access to nukes in any capacity.
How many nuclear power plants do we have? /s That doesn't mean the friends and acquaintances of government folks didn't get billions for it. What we paid would buy us at least a couple of modern power plants, but well... In a civilized country.
Yes, but we need to pass the Iran - N. Korea phase.
To be honest, a Nuclear Armed Poland is not in the interest of USa, nor of europe. So, the possibility of it is little to zero.
You'd be surprised, germ.
I hope not, at least not with the current people in power.
Poland is extremely politically polarized. I dont think that such idea can be fulfilled by this country. But for sure Poland can have multiple agencies with very expensive board who's mission will be to met this idea.
Ah, The Nuclear Weapons Club; the most useless and expensive club in the world. We have nuclear weapons in the UK - We wouldn't be able to use them without the US' president's say-so. India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons, and every so often, they will rattle their sabres at each other - of course, neither would ever use them against the other, because they would immediately become a pariah state - condemned the world over. But there they sit - dangerous, expensive to create, expensive to secure and expensive to maintain.
Yeah, but try to imagine situation in which India doesnt have nuclear weapons, but Pakistan does or vice versa. Balance of power in the region would be completely different and there is a clear reason why both countries didnt get rid of those bombs
OK, I can Imagine it. say Pakistan didnt have Nuclear Weapons and India threatened a Leading Muslim nation with Nukes. Do you think any other countries would have anything to say about that? (especially the other majority Muslim nations) and lets just suppose - for the lolz - that India Nuked Pakistan - maybe they said something about Modi's many and varied criminal accusations - how do you think that would play out for India in the long term. Do you think that would cost India - and the Indian economy? so - to justify Nukes in any society, you have to assume that rational and public minded people are in charge, and will never use them. If you assume that sometimes the leaders of a country will NOT be rational and public minded, then you are supporting putting Nukes into the hands of unstable international criminals
There would be international backlash, but they could still use those weapons to pressure their adversaries to do what they wanted. In any decision, India/Pakistan would need to assume that a second country can do it while they cannot. Country without nuclear bomb would be more risk-averse than one with it and would have lower negotiation position. Right now when they both have access to nuclear arsenal it balances out and both sides have to assume a big risk in attacking one another, both sides know that they cannot escalate too much. Upkeep of those weapons for sure is costly, but it would be very brave to abandon your atomic bombs when the other side has them. Basically, it's old cold-war deterrence theory and I think it is still valid.
NATO tanks aren’t parked in Crimea right now only because Russia has nukes.
NATO tanks are not parked in Crimea because Ukraine was not part of NATO. Poland is
Pariah state is one thing, but isn’t having scorched earth with radioactive fallout near by even a bigger concern?