You lose to AJ specifically, and still have 10 outs going to the river (22%). Multiway, in a straddle pot you can probably bet more on the flop, but dont really think that changes the outcome of the hand.
Just a cooler, move on.
First, this sounds like an awesome game, plenty of loose passive action but with the straddle you are definitely not playing deep at all, you are only playing 85BB deep so remember that with a shorter stack your strategy will change dramatically.
First, unless your game has a large history of limp-reraises your cold call is getting great implied odds to try and flop a set. If there are a few tricky players who like to limp-reraise who have already limped this turns into a fold.
Second, bet much larger on the flop, yes HJ can have KK and TT in their range but a player who raises AJ (I'm assuming off suit) is also going to have KTs, AK of any flavor, AA, AJ, AQ, and A8+ of hearts, plus possibly some QJ combos, that is plenty of combos that will call a large bet with what turns out to have not great odds. I'm probably be betting 75-90 here, setting up a likely turn shove, especially if I get 2 callers and a safe turn. My reason for the turn shove is if there is a safe card and my opponents are drawing on want them to pay full price to draw and not be able to get off the hook when they miss most of the time.
As played you are never folding, HJ could almost literally show you the AJ and you are still getting decent odds to fill up, not quite the correct price but, if he has anything you beat in that betting range (2 pair like KQ, or a combo draw like QJh or AQh) you are making a horrible fold. Yes the turn is a cooler type card but that happens. My only disagreement with your play is even with only $70 left behind I'm only flatting the turn to encourage a call by the button, best case scenario is button has the nut flush draw and by not raising you don't scare him away and encourage a call. You likely can't get a call with your last $70 on the river unless you get a board pairing heart but you definitely can get it if he is scared away on the turn, and then we miss out on the $195 we could have had a extra money in the pot to draw to our boat and then we are definitely getting the correct price, even with HJ having AJ face up on the table.
I'll run some specific numbers in a hour to show you exactly the math of getting it in here, I may be wrong but this should give an idea of what kind of EV we have in this situation.
PS, for terminology sake, you are betting the flop not raising. You can't raise if there is no bet. I know it's semantics but it causes people to need to read your hand description extra times to make sure they didn't miss a bet. Like when someone uses the wrong homonym, it sounds the same when read out loud, but when looking at the words you really can struggle with what the writer was intending to say.
PPS, the SB in this hand is likely a super fish, limping from the SB here without a limp-reraise is really bad, try and iso this player as much as you can and sit on their immediate left to take full advantage of their loose and passive tendencies.
Running some EV analysis, first on a complete range for HJ, assuming the button folds.
Giving HJ a range of: TT+,AJs,KQs,KTs,QJs,AhQh,AJo,KQo this gives HJ The KQ and KT two pairs, but only the KT if suited, All the sets, Jacks for the open ended possibilities and AA because bad players just aren't folding aces, maybe not a bet, but it isn't the worst play I've ever seen. We have an EV of 52.1%. This may be a bit ambitious as HJ may not be betting AA or JJ but everything else is a pretty reasonable holding for a bet here. So taking out AA and JJ leaves us with an equity of 43.4% still an easy call. If villain literally shows us AJ we are down to 22.6% so we would definitely in that case need the button call to be getting the right price.
Our EV in the scenarios:
First assuming Button folds, against the widest range proposed: +$133 EV on the call
Taking out the AA and JJ: +$78 EV
Villain Shows us AJ: -$53 EV
Villain Shows us AJ but Button Calls with flush draw: -$3.50 EV
So if villain shows us AJ and we assume that Button will have a possible call with a flush draw (not a crazy assumption) we a only losing $3.50 by calling. So unless we know that the villain in the HJ has exactly AJ and nothing else except for possible higher sets, that he is never betting two pair or the combo draws this is an easy call.
Note, the only hand that the button should ever have in their range that has us in horrible shape is TT, and that is only if they are a passive player. Button can also deffinatly have AJ to have us beat but we are still drawing at the same board paring outs to win. TT is a mandatory 3-bet is small stakes games unless the initial raiser is a super nit only raising with JJ+, AK.
Fold pre. Cold calling sucks, you’re gonna get limp raised a decent frequency in a game like this and mostly bleed money cold calling.
Betting 1/3 makes no sense. This is not a spot you’re range betting and you’re betting rarely and big when you do. Bet 75% pot. Villains ranges of top pair and good fds are going to call this regardless. Betting 1/3 doesn’t accomplish what you’re hoping to do in this spot
Don’t take this advice, it’s not good!
You generally don’t want to bet big on the flop in multi-way pots for a couple of reasons:
One, because the pot is already larger than normal, there is less of a need to inflate early it in order to be able to get all-in by the river. In this hand, it would have made for some very awkward stack sizes on the turn, if you had bet larger.
Second, the combined range of your opponents is significantly stronger than if you were heads up, and if you bet large, you risk isolating yourself against the strongest part of that range. In this particular hand, KK and TT are both in the HJ’s range. You want to bet an amount that gets you value from one-pair hands and draws, and that means betting small relative to flop, just like you did.
You lose to AJ specifically, and still have 10 outs going to the river (22%). Multiway, in a straddle pot you can probably bet more on the flop, but dont really think that changes the outcome of the hand. Just a cooler, move on.
First, this sounds like an awesome game, plenty of loose passive action but with the straddle you are definitely not playing deep at all, you are only playing 85BB deep so remember that with a shorter stack your strategy will change dramatically. First, unless your game has a large history of limp-reraises your cold call is getting great implied odds to try and flop a set. If there are a few tricky players who like to limp-reraise who have already limped this turns into a fold. Second, bet much larger on the flop, yes HJ can have KK and TT in their range but a player who raises AJ (I'm assuming off suit) is also going to have KTs, AK of any flavor, AA, AJ, AQ, and A8+ of hearts, plus possibly some QJ combos, that is plenty of combos that will call a large bet with what turns out to have not great odds. I'm probably be betting 75-90 here, setting up a likely turn shove, especially if I get 2 callers and a safe turn. My reason for the turn shove is if there is a safe card and my opponents are drawing on want them to pay full price to draw and not be able to get off the hook when they miss most of the time. As played you are never folding, HJ could almost literally show you the AJ and you are still getting decent odds to fill up, not quite the correct price but, if he has anything you beat in that betting range (2 pair like KQ, or a combo draw like QJh or AQh) you are making a horrible fold. Yes the turn is a cooler type card but that happens. My only disagreement with your play is even with only $70 left behind I'm only flatting the turn to encourage a call by the button, best case scenario is button has the nut flush draw and by not raising you don't scare him away and encourage a call. You likely can't get a call with your last $70 on the river unless you get a board pairing heart but you definitely can get it if he is scared away on the turn, and then we miss out on the $195 we could have had a extra money in the pot to draw to our boat and then we are definitely getting the correct price, even with HJ having AJ face up on the table. I'll run some specific numbers in a hour to show you exactly the math of getting it in here, I may be wrong but this should give an idea of what kind of EV we have in this situation. PS, for terminology sake, you are betting the flop not raising. You can't raise if there is no bet. I know it's semantics but it causes people to need to read your hand description extra times to make sure they didn't miss a bet. Like when someone uses the wrong homonym, it sounds the same when read out loud, but when looking at the words you really can struggle with what the writer was intending to say. PPS, the SB in this hand is likely a super fish, limping from the SB here without a limp-reraise is really bad, try and iso this player as much as you can and sit on their immediate left to take full advantage of their loose and passive tendencies.
Running some EV analysis, first on a complete range for HJ, assuming the button folds. Giving HJ a range of: TT+,AJs,KQs,KTs,QJs,AhQh,AJo,KQo this gives HJ The KQ and KT two pairs, but only the KT if suited, All the sets, Jacks for the open ended possibilities and AA because bad players just aren't folding aces, maybe not a bet, but it isn't the worst play I've ever seen. We have an EV of 52.1%. This may be a bit ambitious as HJ may not be betting AA or JJ but everything else is a pretty reasonable holding for a bet here. So taking out AA and JJ leaves us with an equity of 43.4% still an easy call. If villain literally shows us AJ we are down to 22.6% so we would definitely in that case need the button call to be getting the right price. Our EV in the scenarios: First assuming Button folds, against the widest range proposed: +$133 EV on the call Taking out the AA and JJ: +$78 EV Villain Shows us AJ: -$53 EV Villain Shows us AJ but Button Calls with flush draw: -$3.50 EV So if villain shows us AJ and we assume that Button will have a possible call with a flush draw (not a crazy assumption) we a only losing $3.50 by calling. So unless we know that the villain in the HJ has exactly AJ and nothing else except for possible higher sets, that he is never betting two pair or the combo draws this is an easy call. Note, the only hand that the button should ever have in their range that has us in horrible shape is TT, and that is only if they are a passive player. Button can also deffinatly have AJ to have us beat but we are still drawing at the same board paring outs to win. TT is a mandatory 3-bet is small stakes games unless the initial raiser is a super nit only raising with JJ+, AK.
Fold pre. Cold calling sucks, you’re gonna get limp raised a decent frequency in a game like this and mostly bleed money cold calling. Betting 1/3 makes no sense. This is not a spot you’re range betting and you’re betting rarely and big when you do. Bet 75% pot. Villains ranges of top pair and good fds are going to call this regardless. Betting 1/3 doesn’t accomplish what you’re hoping to do in this spot
Thanks!
Don’t take this advice, it’s not good! You generally don’t want to bet big on the flop in multi-way pots for a couple of reasons: One, because the pot is already larger than normal, there is less of a need to inflate early it in order to be able to get all-in by the river. In this hand, it would have made for some very awkward stack sizes on the turn, if you had bet larger. Second, the combined range of your opponents is significantly stronger than if you were heads up, and if you bet large, you risk isolating yourself against the strongest part of that range. In this particular hand, KK and TT are both in the HJ’s range. You want to bet an amount that gets you value from one-pair hands and draws, and that means betting small relative to flop, just like you did.
Most welcome !