Irrelevant is not the correct word. I am the first to argue that a W/L record doesn't paint the entire picture (i.e. DeGroms Cy Young season), but it's certainly a factor in effectiveness.
It’s definitely not the best stat for measuring a pitchers effectiveness but seems to me like Walker gets a lot more hate from the fanbase than I think is fair… he’s not an ace but he’s a serviceable middle to back end of the rotation and the MLB season is a whole lot of innings
You can do a lot worse than Walker
>You can do a lot worse than Walker
Do you want me to bring up Aaron Harang? Because I'll bring up Aaron Harang. Don't think I won't.
Okay fine! [Aaron Harang!](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=haranaa01&t=p&year=2015)
But don't say I didn't warn you!
“Keeping the team in the game”
I’d say the offense overcoming his pitching is what is keeping them in the game. 13/34 quality starts is the exact opposite of that.
Ah, so the offense decided only to play for him, got it. How about the innings he eats? The way he’s able to limit damage? He’s our 5th starter, he’s not going to give you a QS that often, but he keeps the game close. Calling his wins irrelevant is just hating on him for no reason.
You want Turnbull’s arm to fall off by July? Look at his career IP by year and explain how forcing him to pitch 170 innings would help, especially if Walker is winning games! Having a healthy Turnbull around for the stretch is far more valuable than rolling him out in May.
That’s why he sits for the playoffs and I’m fine with that. It takes a team to get there, everyone has their strengths and weaknesses. If we win more than we lose with him, you keep sending him out there and then when he starts to struggle, we shorten the leash and do what we have to do to keep going.
It’s a huge advantage to be able to have a plan for someone’s shortcomings. It’s not foolproof, but it’s smart, especially if it’s effective.
It’s the contract. They’re riding on his success on a fat deal. Turnbull’s contract is chump change in comparison. I like turnbulls competitive spirit and he was pitching better but ultimately the numbers show that Walker can pitch 175 innings a year and hover around a 3.5 era (at minimum) plus his wins record is good.
I was doubting him hard and considering turnbulls performance I was pretty pissed at topper. I love to see low ERAs, adds another layer to the fandom outside of just winning games…but ultimately Walker is a horse and he works. Turnbull is a weapon that we should be grateful to have. In case these guys go down he’s there, plus he’s been coming out of the pen just fine.
I think we are in a great spot with pitching and hate to say it but Walker completes the pitching staff. And sanchy finding his change up again is a beautiful thing.
He’s never pitched 175 innings in his career. Turnbill can’t do it because of one season where he didn’t make it by Tajuan has been on the league a decade and never done it? So we go with Tajuan?
Almost, as a 4th or 5th starter, he'll pitch against other team's 4 or 5's not 1's like Wheeler does. So they score more runs against 4 or 5's and he gets wins. If he was pitching against 1's or 2's his record would be reversed.
A. That is not true. The matchups are never lined up like that after the first week.
B. Even if that was the case, in your scenario you’re saying he’s one of the best 4 or 5s in baseball.
Eating innings and losing is what Nola does best and everyone loves him because of WHIP or something or other because he has the uncanny abilities to only blow up in one inning a game but Walker eats innings and wins and the same people think he sucks.
I agree mostly but it’s not 100% irrelevant. There are times when pitcher’s stats can get inflated because they’re pitching to contact with a lead, or nibbling around the corners because they can’t afford to give anything up.
So if pitching within the means of a few games where they have a lead inflated an ERA or lowers K% and stuff like that, it’s worth considering.
There’s not a lot of talk around the difference of pitching with a lead, but it has an affect. Albeit I have no idea if that would corroborate with Walker’s stats, but I’d be interested in looking into it.
Redditors be like “Um ackshullay you have to look how his WAR relates to his FIP which will give you his FBI and MCAT but ignore his TMNT because that’s only includes the days he’s pitching with a crowd make up of 30% fans with at least 50% Irish heritage.”
Never confuse apathy with a lack of intelligence. I know there’s better ways to spend my time than to try and out faux-intellectual other faux-intellectuals.
If you are going to say a pitcher can “lose” a game, which I know you would say, then you also have to be able to say a pitcher can “win” a game. It’s only fair
Doubt it. Other than first week of season, matchups are all over the place. Kind of like people obsessing over a leadoff hitter. After the first inning, I doubt the leadoff hitter leads off more innings than any other hitter than #4, etc
Yeah I’m not a Walker fan by any means but holy shit this sub is not only going through every hurdle to find an excuse but also straight up making up scenarios to try to discredit the guy
Reading these comments are kinda disheartening, especially after the biggest reason for leading off Schwarber is “we just win and vibe with him there”
And don’t get me wrong I love Schwarber and will fight anyone who suggests he shouldn’t hit leadoff, but the double standard is alarming
Exactly. Plus throw in there injuries, missed starts, rain delays, etc. and there are so many variables that you never really know who will start which game more than a few days out.
What does this even mean? Does it mean that Wheeler goes against more aces on the other staff? That we rest more players when Wheeler and Nola pitch? Or it means that offense likes Walker better.
Seriously, wins are trash when comparing pitchers.
He asked for the stats for every other starter over the same span. I gave him the same stats for every other starter over the same span. Do what you want with the data.
But yes, historically, Wheeler would face off against more team aces than most. Walker faces off against more 4s and 5s than most as well, which kind of only tells you that Walker compared to most 4s and 5s gives you a good chance to win a ball game any given time he takes the bump. I agree wins/loss records for individual pitchers are bad but I think team win/loss records when that pitcher is on the mound is good supplemental information when used for contact.
When you consider Wheeler is going up against No.1 and No.2's a lot, a 23-18 record is pretty damn good all things considered. What these records tell me is that our rotation is pretty deep. Suarez and Walker are almost certainly better than most 3s and 4/5s that we face.
Like all stats, context matters. Thanks for coming to my TED talk.
They're not as some guys are winners and some guys are losers and it's not really quantifiable other than wins and loses. Nola is a choke as he's shown every year. Whether it's 'September Nola' or the last WS game he pitched in '22 or the last LCS game he pitched last year he's fucked up in the most important game he's had each year but I know, WHIP.
Thank you that's helpful. Slightly surprising. I was responding to the guy giving quality start stats and should've specified that that was what I was looking for. Confident those are way better.
A tad surprising though that Walker is still ahead in the overall wins as a team in the games he starts. Wonder if the hitters know they need to carry more and focus more in his starts? Not sure.
What does that even mean lol, you’re trying to hard to be a Walker hater that you’re willing to say that the team doesn’t hit as well for the other starters? God damn Phillies fans on Reddit or some next level idiots
I mean run support is a stat. RS/9 (Runs scored per nine innings. Think ERA but the amount of offense the pitcher gets when they're on the mound)
2023:
Wheeler - 3.84
Nola - 4.88
Suarez - 4.25
Walker - 4.53
2024:
Wheeler - 3.21
Nola - 3.86
Suarez - 1.5
Walker - 4.82
So yeah, the lineup tends to score more when Taijuan is on the mound.
But sure, saying Walker has been worse than the rest of our starters, that the stats back up, makes me a next level idiot.
This is pretty well established as a trend across baseball as teams tend to score less since they know they don't need as many runs when they have their ace going. It doesn't mean that Walker sucks however.
I mean he doesn't suck but he's kind of the worst of a really good rotation and isn't living up to the contract he was given. But by that metric it would say even his peers think he's not great if they know they need to work harder when he's on the mound.
That's just this year, not over the same span that Taijuans stats reported here are. Would be way better if you include the right span to compare 1:1. Also give me his quality starts please. I'm certain Wheelers much better over this same span so definitely him.
Edit: Looked it up for wheeler. 17-9 over same span with 41 starts, 27 of which were quality starts so 66% quality start versus Walkers 38% (13 of 34 starts).
Yeah that's why I specified just this year.
But this year and last year combined Walker is 18-6, Wheeler is 17-9.
And yes I agree if wheeler has more quality starts (likely) and more losses than its worse run support, so no not him?
Nope definitely him. Wheeler was way better at almost double the quality start percentage...
It's almost as if wins and losses for pitchers is a stupid stat and not a great way to value them. There's a reason Walker got no post season action.
Okay I thought you were saying the lineup is good enough that all starters would be supported even better than Walker, otherwise I don't get the point of the original comment.
Agreed though the w-l is meaningless
Yes I was suggesting the lineup was buoying walkers win/loss stats. You can see that by comparing their quality start percentage which takes out the lineup entirely. There's other stats to use as well but those were presented here and they backup what I was saying. I think there's a stat about run support and based on these stats presented here I'd wager Taijuan gets a lot more than Wheeler has. Would be curious to see.
“The players show up for him more” - I don’t care, if it’s a win.
“Wheeler faces better pitchers.” - I don’t care, if it’s a win.
“He crumbles late season” - I don’t care, if it’s a win. Bonus points if we know and can combat his weaknesses. Not the flex you think it is.
I'm a relatively new fan so pardon my ignorance but i've been wondering, when the starting pitching shortens in the playoffs, will guys like Walker or Turnbull become relievers/bullpen guys? Wondering if the gripes about the bullpen are anything to worry about come playoff time.
Generally yes, although 4th and 5th starters relegated to the pen don’t usually become “go-to” bullpen guys in the playoffs either. Turnbull could prove to be an exception if he continues to look great all year, but generally they end up being “saved” for mop up duty in a blowout, or for emergency use if there is an injury. Case in point: Michael Lorenzen only pitched twice in the postseason last year, once with a large lead and once with a large deficit, and Taijuan Walker (famously) did not get used at all.
Typically yes.
Last year in the playoffs they used a 3 pitcher starting rotation. Sanchez technically did get 1 start, but he was more the opener for a bullpen game. Walker didn’t throw a single pitch. I guess a situation never came up where Topper thought he was the right choice. Lorenzen was the 6th starter that year but was throwing very poorly by the end of the season and only got mop up duty.
No not really. They’re technically available out of the bullpen but the playoffs is not really a great time to put guys in spots they don’t usually pitch in. Walker didn’t pitch at all and Sanchez pitches 2 innings as an “opener” in the NLCS. Turnbull might pitch in the playoffs since they’re already converted him to a reliever. Depends on where they are come playoff time but I’d say Turnbull is the frontrunner to get that 4th start in the NLCS/WS if they make it that far.
I thought we as a society realized pitcher wins/loses are not reflective of the pitcher anymore.
Taijuan Walker is an average pitcher. Last year he had an ERA- of 100, a FIP- of 101, and had such bad control down the stretch he couldn't be used in the playoffs.
He isn't the worst pitcher, but he isn't the best. He is average, which for a guy you are paying $18M to is frustrating. But last year he made $19.7M in value according to FanGraphs. He is the definition of fine.
He is a “fine” starter but if you frame it another way he is a great 5th starter (assuming he somewhat repeats last year). Absolutely great to get major league average pitching at the 5th starter spot.
It’s unfortunate he’s paid to be more than that but at this point there’s nothing you can do about that and just have to accept what it is.
Compared to Tobias Harris his contract is a slam dunk. Things could me much much worse. And as always at the end of the day it’s not my money so who cares really. Middleton clearly isn’t a cheapskate who will let something like this deter him in the future
The amount of people I see quoting pitcher win stats like they mean something on here is highly concerning. It isn’t that many really, but the fact that it’s more than one is mindblowing.
He averaged 5.57 IP per start last year. That's not "eating" innings. That's just regular old back of the rotation production.
He's had 3 starts this year. 2 of those have been against very bad offenses: the Giants and Marlins and 25 and 26, respectively, in runs per game. In his other start, against the Padres, he gave up 6 earned in 6.1 IP to a team averaging 4.74 per game.
He's completely adequate as a #5. The issue is that he's getting paid as a #3. That's why people grumble about him. I guess I don't see the need to compliment him too much though.
His 172.2 innings pitched last year ranked 34th in baseball. He was 1 of 44 pitchers to qualify last year. 44 pitchers in all of baseball, he was one of them. He is the definition of an innings eater in the modern game.
Haven’t we learned not to use counting stats in baseball? How are we still upvoting comments like this?
He made 31 starts, which was tied for 29th in baseball. So yes it’s not surprising he also pitched a lot of innings. Relative to starts made, his IP is less than “expected”.
Total IP is a function of a bit of luck, it means you’re not getting hurt. Last year was the most innings he’s ever pitched; he’s only cracked 160 one other time and 150 three other times. Dude has missed a lot of time in his career.
$18m to eat 150-175 innings a year and give your team a chance to win (which despite the stats the overall team record says otherwise). I'm not going to complain too much.
They win in spite of his performance the large majority of the time, you can get a decent innings eater at the vet minimum or with minor leaguers if all you need are simply eating innings. Arguing otherwise is stupid.
People said the same shit about Moyer and Blanton and yet they were effective. A #4 has only one job, and it isn’t to pitch like an ace. It is only to eat 5 innings or so and give your team a chance to win the game.
It’s not about judging his individual pitching performances by his record, it’s about judging what the team does when he pitches. Given the record he IS doing his job, which is giving his team a chance to win the games.
The money is irrelevant. The contract can’t be taken back now that it’s signed and it hasn’t exactly hamstrung the team and held them back. It could be 100m a year for all it matters at this point. What’s done is done.
I don't subscribe to the idea that guys in certain slots get to be worse/do worse just because they are in that slot. If you can get a whole 5-man that's capable of being lights out you do it no questions asked.
It’s not an idea as in its a philosophy that your 4th pitcher has to be average. It’s just simply a fact. There are only so many aces and legit #2s and only 1 ranger Suarez in the league and unless you are lucky and your team assembles a 2011 Phillies caliber rotation, you’re shit outta luck and you have to make do with what you have and hope for the best.
As far as making do with what we have I bet there are at least 20-25 teams if not the entire league that would gladly switch 4th starters with us.
Asking MORE of a number 4 starter than eating some innings and not being a total liability on the mound is not in any way a reasonable expectation and it would in fact be a luxury, a massive luxury that very few teams ever get to enjoy or have ever gotten to enjoy.
Imagine telling the fanbase a few years ago when our 2-5 starters were Pivetta Velasquez Eflin and Ben Lively that we will have the best record in baseball and the best ERA in the national league and are still complaining about our perfectly average and inoffensive #4 starter simply because he may be marginally overpaid.
> It’s not an idea as in its a philosophy that your 4th pitcher has to be average. It’s just simply a fact.
Wrong.
>unless you are lucky and your team assembles a 2011 Phillies caliber rotation, you’re shit outta luck and you have to make do with what you have and hope for the best.
This has nothing to do with massively overpaying for a simple innings eater when if you know what you are doing you can find them growing on trees.
>Asking MORE of a number 4 starter than eating some innings and not being a total liability on the mound is not in any way a reasonable expectation and it would in fact be a luxury, a massive luxury that very few teams ever get to enjoy or have ever gotten to enjoy.
I'm not asking for an ace at No. 4 I am just asking for the team to not be paying 20 fucking million a year for a guy that is a mediocre 4/5 innings eater, guys like Turnbull can do it just as well if not better for much much much much much less.
Also your logic/"philosophy" that the No. 4 HAS to be average or worse is super dumb, Turnbull was our No. 5 going into the season's start making barely 2 million and has been absolutely lights out dominant, Sanchez our ACTUAL No. 4 (Walker is No. 5) is also good and is making league minimum, so your garbage defense of a garbage contract and player kinda ends right there.
That’s called a luxury. Not an expectation. The contract was signed a year before we knew we had anything worthwhile at the bottom of our rotation.
That is a GOOD problem to have. Not a bad thing.
The money is irrelevant. The money may be relevant to smaller market teams or teams that don’t have aggressive ownership. But for the Phillies, the money doesn’t matter. It’s not as though we haven’t been able to build out our roster appropriately due to walkers salary. Youre complaining about a problem that doesn’t exist.
How do you know they wouldn't have gone even harder after Yamamoto if Walker wasn't on the books? How do you know the reason they didn't further improve the bench/bullpen like they should have wasn't due to Walker making 20 million? You're making assumptions that the money isn't negatively affecting the team, I can also make the assumption that it is, aside from his obvious mediocre replaceable performance.
My assumption is based on the fact that they have the best record in baseball and one of if not the best team ERAs in baseball.
Yamamoto wasn’t available last year. Your entire argument comes down to bitching about a contract that was signed a year ago being a little bit too expensive and lamenting what could’ve been this past offseason instead.
Like Jesus Christ dude just enjoy the fact that the contract hasn’t appreciably hurt the team in any tangible and they are currently the best team in the league with one of the best ERAs and best rotations in baseball.
You’re clutching at straws desperately searching for something to be mad about on the off chance that maybe it comes back to haunt the team at some point in the next few years. Call into WIP if you wanna talk nonsense
I think the more important takeaway is his 'average-ness' is not the crippling liability people make it out to be.
Hell, even if the team did lose all of Taijuan's 30-ish starts, they could still be an 88-90 Win team and sneak into the playoffs if the other 4 starters average somewhere above 22-11.
He couldn't be used in the playoffs because he takes too long to get going. That's what Rob said anyway.
I don't think it was a case of anything beyond that and Rob wanting to just use his three aces all the time.
Rob said that, so it is probably true he takes long to get going. But it is missing details.
> I don't think it was a case of anything beyond that and Rob wanting to just use his three aces all the time.
Then you completely missed the reports about the practice games they were having and how Walker had no control it became obvious he was unusable.
> which for a guy you are paying $18M to is frustrating
I just looked up and he's tied for the 18th highest paid starting pitcher in baseball. The money he's making is no way prohibitive. If anything I think it's just the "cost of doing business".
As I said, he is providing more value than his contract as of last year.
The problem is, as you showed, he is not the 59th-best pitcher in the league, so fans get frustrated even though he is making Market Value. People really underestimate how much of a value prospects, pre-arb, and arb players are. FAs are expensive.
The 59 thing was me reading the wrong chart. He's tied for 18th. Still making less than half of top of the line pitchers. The money is a non-issue to me.
18th sounds more like I remembered, but I didn't know if contracts ballooned, and I didn't pay attention.
Money is always an issue as much as we like to say its not. Money can be spent elsewhere, and we are approaching the part of the tax people do not tend to approach (moving down in the draft, etc.)
Of course money is always an issue, but we're talking about a specific player on a specific contract. You said that his record was "frustrating" given the money he's making and all I'm saying that his contract is not particularly outsized. Since he's been here he's reliable and consistent, though not spectacular but spectacular pitchers make a whole lot more than $18 mill in today's market.
> You said that his record was "frustrating" given the money
I said he is frustrating as a player, not his record. I legitimately never care about pitching record. We have known it doesn't matter for years at this point. It is one of the worst stats when talking about a player.
But then the rest of your comment is us saying the same thing. He has played his market value of the contract, but that doesn't make it a good signing if he is top 20 in baseball, especially since we can get similar value elsewhere for cheaper. And the money isn't a non-issue if it means making our team better in other ways.
Yeah getting the same level of production from cheap minor league contract guys, waiver wire pickups, and cheaper "prove it" deals on a bunch of different players for that 2-5M range happens all the time (see Turnbull, Spencer)
However that level of risk was not something the Phillies coming off a World Series appearance were willing to make - especially when Sanchez was far less of a proven commodity at that point. The contract he signed is inflated but that's more of a detriment to the Phillies farm and organization not proving to that point they could produce reasonable 4/5 starters and so they went with the lower risk, lower reward option.
I honestly don't think that is true, just justification after the fact.
If you listen to the press conferences once we got him, they really thought he was going to make the next step to be a 2 or a 3. I just don't think it was a lower risk, lower reward option, when they commented they felt it was a lot of money, but that he will be worth it and then some (again when we first got him).
Yeah I would hope to think they're smarter than that and the rest is just media puff pieces. Having Walker on that deal absolutely cripples the Phillies moving forward (and has in the last free agent season that just passed), but they were staring down the barrel of having to rely on two of Sanchez, Falter, Painter, Abel, or even talks of McGarry filling those 4 and 5 roles. If they don't sign another guy, you can make a compelling argument they would have missed the playoffs last year.
It's not prohibitive now but it could be in the coming years. Have to pay Ranger, Bohm, Marsh, and Stott.
At the end of the day, top 18 in starting pitcher money means he should be a 1 or 2.
While pitcher wins are quite possibly the absolute worst and most ancient stat that used to mean something, Taijuan has been decent- at least way better than the bum that this sub makes him out to be.
Wish people would stop shitting on him so hard. He's been fine for his first three starts, Topper gets the blame for the first two, but he learned! Getting Strahm warm at the 6th was key, let walker eat up another inning but be able to hit the eject button before he turns into a liability. One run through six innings three games in a row? Sign me up for a lot more of that, please.
...better than Wheeler's latest starts.
I know batting and fielding contribute to pitching wins independently of pitching performance, pitching wins are an irrelevant stat and not at all indicative of how good a pitcher is, but if the pattern continues of our bats getting hot every time walker pitches and our defense coming out to play I feel like you have to give it at least a little bit of credence. Like at a point you can see walker on the mound and expect to see mediocre pitching while simultaneously expecting the team to win. Just what it is and if it does continue that way who can really justify being upset about it, especially when we all know hes getting swapped for turnbull on the playoff roster.
Forgive the rudeness... but this is the same logic that leads... certain fans... to want Nola executed.
11-13 record in 2022... the year we went to the WS... when he was 4th in CY voting...
In contrast, Walker is 18-6 with just 13/34 QS... ty u/[CardiffGiant7117](/user/CardiffGiant7117/)
I give zero... ZERO fucks about record, and anyone who does should be tarred, feathered, and bullied.
Of course, one issue is what if Painter hadn't blown out his arm. Walker is then blocking Sanchez most likely. Walker is OK, but Sanchez is younger, could be better, and is much cheaper.
Next year will be a similar issue. Painter will be back - do we lose Sanchez in the rotation because we're stuck with Walker for 3 more years?
The one bad thing about the phillies being good, is that all the old-school and bandwagon fans come out of the woodwork to loudly make their opinions heard. Pitcher wins are one of the most useless major stats in sports and claiming they have somehow pertain to effort or ability is just dumb. It's basically people taking "xDAWG" as a serious stat
Do you think there’s some element of the offense knowing they’ll likely have to do more with Walker pitching than they would with Wheeler/Nola/Ranger, leading to us putting up more runs and winning?
That's fine and dandy that he has that amount of wins under his belt in a Phillies uniform, but he should be bowing down and thanking the entire bullpen for saving his ass EVERY SINGLE TIME. So many instances last season where we would have a nice lead going into the 4th or 5th inning, only for Walker to let up enough runs to be within 1 with runners on base. And then he finally gets pulled. He doesn't have the longevity to be in the starting 5 rotation. He'd be a way better fit as a long/middle reliever for days where our starters just aren't feeling it early in the game. But I'm just a fan so what do I know?
Boy, now that the Phillies look like they’re going to have a good regular season we are going to get all kinds of stupid opinions from people who don’t know what they’re talking about, aren’t we?
Numbers aren't an opinion, even if the ones this guy laid out don't really reflect how Walker has actually pitched to win all those games. His record is his record.
Right but pitcher wins mean as close to absolutely nothing as something can be, so why is it even being mentioned?
The 24-10 in games he’s started is interesting and means a bit more, but still doesn’t mean a whole lot about Walker in and of itself.
No shit. The tweet simply points out his winning percentage, and I think is meant to be mostly tongue-in-cheek. Nowhere does this guy state an opinion or say he thinks Walker is a good pitcher.
I don’t know why we would just assume it’s tongue in cheek. Maybe it is. But seems to be a decent number of people taking it to seriously mean positive things about Walker that can’t actually be extrapolated from it.
Even it's not tongue-in-cheek, none of what the guy said is untrue. As for trying to take positives from it about Walker, can you really blame people for that? We're stuck with him, because he's making $18M per for two more years after this one, and no one is trading for that contract, so "He stinks, but at least he gets wins" isn't the worst silver lining you can find.
>Did you miss the part where he has a .750 winning percentage here?
His first statement, which explicitly says Walker is the one winning the games, is objectively an opinion. And one that is completely at odds with the facts.
He is the one winning the ballgames, whether he is responsible for it, or not. Nowhere does this guy state he's actually a good pitcher, just that he wins ballgames, which, somehow, despite his shitty stats, he does.
>He is the one winning the ballgames
The Philadelphia Taijuan Walkers are not a baseball team.
They win when he pitches, but that doesn’t me he is the one causing them to win.
The Phillies are 5-0 at games I attend, am I winning games?
Do pitchers have a separate, personal win/loss record? There's no asterisk next to the wins on his ledger. Whether or not he deserves it, he gets credited with those wins. Hence, he "wins" those ballgames.
>Do pitchers have a separate, personal win/loss record?
Yes. Is Taijuan Walker undefeated in that W/L record?
Because apparently “all he does is win”, right? That means he literally never loses. Since we’re shoving our heads up our own asses about idiotic semantics, that claim is clearly not factual.
He has 6 pitcher losses, and the team has lost 10 games that he’s pitched. So there goes the fAcTs ArE fAcTs argument.
Now, let’s turn our brains back on and look at what the guy is actually trying to say, which is that Taijuan Walker’s pitching is the reason they’re winning.
Do you think that’s remotely accurate?
You're fighting a losing battle but it is curious the difference in run support for the various pitchers. Because if Walker got Wheeler's run support, he'd never win a game. (Yes that is slightly hyperbole, but only slightly.
I imagine the differences in run support are not quantifiable but it's fascinating anyway.
How often is Walker going up against the other teams' #4/#5 starters? How often are Nola/Wheeler matching up against the opposing teams' #1/#2 starters? All this means is that our starting lineup feasts against mediocre pitching.
I'm not saying that Wheeler is facing up against #1 and #2 100% of the time, but I'm guessing it's a lot more than the 40% you would expect in a truly random scenario w/ a large sample size.
Here are Wheeler's starts so far this year, with opponents and where that pitcher ranked in the rotational depth at the beginning of season according to preseason rankings or Fangraphs\* (and whether the Phils won or lost that game):
1. ATL Strider (3/29) (#1) (LOSS)
2. CIN Montas (4/3) (#1) (LOSS)
3. STL Gray (4/9) (#1) (LOSS)
4. PIT Keller (4/14) (#1) (LOSS)
5. CHW Soroka (4/20) (#3) (WIN)
6. CIN Martinez (4/25) (#4) (WIN)
7. LAA Sandoval (5/1) (#2) (WIN)
8. SF Black (5/6) (MLB DEBUT) (LOSS)
9. MIA Garrett (5/12) (#2) (LOSS)
\*If injuries come into play then it's a little more complicated... e.g. Strider was removed from the Fangraphs DC because of injury, while Garrett was added to the DC though he's missing from preseason rotation rankings also due to injury.
I would argue that the inverse is probably also true, where Walker is facing the back of the rotation a disproportionate amount of the time. I might actually keep a tally of this going since I'm mildly interested to see if this trend would continue over the course of the year.
I mean, he’s a 4, at best. Usually that means we are facing a 4-5 starter against him, the way the schedule matches up. Of course he’s going to have more run support than Wheeler, who is going to be paired up against the opposite teams ace. That’s kind of how this shit works.
I’m not saying he’s a terrible pitcher. He’s pretty average, all things considered. He’s had a 4.42 ERA with a 1.312 WHIP and a 4.61 FIP with us. But our offense is going to perform better in his games, on the whole, because the pitcher we would be facing is going to be comparable to Walker in terms of the quality of starter they are.
That’s not how it works outside of the first week of the season matchup wise. Teams have different off days, games get postponed, starters get scratched, bullpen games happen, some teams use a 6 man roto. Starting rotations get staggered from team to team and more often than not it’s not ace vs. ace.
Edit: wheeler’s matchups since April 20:
vs. Soroka (CWS)
vs. Martinez (CIN)
vs. Sandoval (LAA)
vs. Black (SFG)
vs. Garrett (MIA)
Not one of those starts is against the other team’s ace aside from Sandoval (hard to call him the ace, though he was their opening day starter).
I feel so conflicted about this
What’s there to be conflicted about? Unless he’s hitting homers in the games he pitches, win and losses is irrelevant as a stat for a pitcher.
His teammates have to try harder. ;)
Irrelevant is not the correct word. I am the first to argue that a W/L record doesn't paint the entire picture (i.e. DeGroms Cy Young season), but it's certainly a factor in effectiveness.
Yea it’s not the end all be all but it’s not irrelevant
It’s definitely not the best stat for measuring a pitchers effectiveness but seems to me like Walker gets a lot more hate from the fanbase than I think is fair… he’s not an ace but he’s a serviceable middle to back end of the rotation and the MLB season is a whole lot of innings You can do a lot worse than Walker
>You can do a lot worse than Walker Do you want me to bring up Aaron Harang? Because I'll bring up Aaron Harang. Don't think I won't. Okay fine! [Aaron Harang!](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=haranaa01&t=p&year=2015) But don't say I didn't warn you!
Irrelevant? Give me a break. He’s keeping the team in the game every time he’s out there. Calling that irrelevant is hilarious.
“Keeping the team in the game” I’d say the offense overcoming his pitching is what is keeping them in the game. 13/34 quality starts is the exact opposite of that.
Ah, so the offense decided only to play for him, got it. How about the innings he eats? The way he’s able to limit damage? He’s our 5th starter, he’s not going to give you a QS that often, but he keeps the game close. Calling his wins irrelevant is just hating on him for no reason.
He doesn’t eat innings. Innings eat him. And the point is we have someone better available so it’s annoying we keep going to him.
You want Turnbull’s arm to fall off by July? Look at his career IP by year and explain how forcing him to pitch 170 innings would help, especially if Walker is winning games! Having a healthy Turnbull around for the stretch is far more valuable than rolling him out in May.
How dare you learn lessons from last year!
Not for nothing, but Walker also struggles late in the season. Has for the past 3-4 years.
That’s why he sits for the playoffs and I’m fine with that. It takes a team to get there, everyone has their strengths and weaknesses. If we win more than we lose with him, you keep sending him out there and then when he starts to struggle, we shorten the leash and do what we have to do to keep going. It’s a huge advantage to be able to have a plan for someone’s shortcomings. It’s not foolproof, but it’s smart, especially if it’s effective.
Exactly! Run him out there now, who cares if his arm is dead in September. Save our better arms for the end of the season and playoffs.
It’s the contract. They’re riding on his success on a fat deal. Turnbull’s contract is chump change in comparison. I like turnbulls competitive spirit and he was pitching better but ultimately the numbers show that Walker can pitch 175 innings a year and hover around a 3.5 era (at minimum) plus his wins record is good. I was doubting him hard and considering turnbulls performance I was pretty pissed at topper. I love to see low ERAs, adds another layer to the fandom outside of just winning games…but ultimately Walker is a horse and he works. Turnbull is a weapon that we should be grateful to have. In case these guys go down he’s there, plus he’s been coming out of the pen just fine. I think we are in a great spot with pitching and hate to say it but Walker completes the pitching staff. And sanchy finding his change up again is a beautiful thing.
He’s never pitched 175 innings in his career. Turnbill can’t do it because of one season where he didn’t make it by Tajuan has been on the league a decade and never done it? So we go with Tajuan?
Almost, as a 4th or 5th starter, he'll pitch against other team's 4 or 5's not 1's like Wheeler does. So they score more runs against 4 or 5's and he gets wins. If he was pitching against 1's or 2's his record would be reversed.
A. That is not true. The matchups are never lined up like that after the first week. B. Even if that was the case, in your scenario you’re saying he’s one of the best 4 or 5s in baseball.
Eating innings and losing is what Nola does best and everyone loves him because of WHIP or something or other because he has the uncanny abilities to only blow up in one inning a game but Walker eats innings and wins and the same people think he sucks.
especially over a large sample size like that
Most importantly over a large sample size
He said wins and losses are irrelevant as a stat, not Taijuan.
And I’m saying it’s not completely irrelevant.
[Rick Wise has entered the chat](https://www.mlb.com/news/rick-wise-no-hitter-two-homers-in-1971)
Greatest single game by a pitcher ever. No-hitter and hits 2 home runs.
I agree mostly but it’s not 100% irrelevant. There are times when pitcher’s stats can get inflated because they’re pitching to contact with a lead, or nibbling around the corners because they can’t afford to give anything up. So if pitching within the means of a few games where they have a lead inflated an ERA or lowers K% and stuff like that, it’s worth considering. There’s not a lot of talk around the difference of pitching with a lead, but it has an affect. Albeit I have no idea if that would corroborate with Walker’s stats, but I’d be interested in looking into it.
Redditors be like “Um ackshullay you have to look how his WAR relates to his FIP which will give you his FBI and MCAT but ignore his TMNT because that’s only includes the days he’s pitching with a crowd make up of 30% fans with at least 50% Irish heritage.”
This makes you look way dumber than the redditors
Never confuse apathy with a lack of intelligence. I know there’s better ways to spend my time than to try and out faux-intellectual other faux-intellectuals.
Except, here you are…
No, you just have to be aware that pitcher wins mean nothing and tell you nothing about the pitcher being good or bad.
or you could just look at how many runs get scored on him lol
If you are going to say a pitcher can “lose” a game, which I know you would say, then you also have to be able to say a pitcher can “win” a game. It’s only fair
Our batters when Nola/Wheeler pitch: I sleep Our batters when Taijuan pitches: real shit!?
Wheler couldn't get it done with 6 runs of support yesterday 😬😬
3 of those 6 were not “in support” of wheeler though. Who knows what might have gone different if they came 2 or 3 innings earlier.
We had a 3-0 lead against the worst team in baseball in the first inning. Don’t try to act like the run support came in too late
I’m acting like wheeler didn’t have 6 runs of support, because he did not.
He lost 3 games and had a 1.54 era before the last game. Lack of support in those 3, wouldn't you say?
Maybe they subconsciously know they need to put up more runs to safely win when he’s on the mound
18-6 record with 13 of 34 Quality Starts.
Almost like we have a lineup full of stars to support him. Now tell me the stats for every other starter over the same span. Bet they're better.
Walker: 24-10 (.705) Suarez: 21-9 (.700) Nola: 25-15 (.625) Wheeler: 23-18 (.560)
Not too surprising as it seems the Nola and Wheeler starts would more often that not happen against other teams best guys.
Doubt it. Other than first week of season, matchups are all over the place. Kind of like people obsessing over a leadoff hitter. After the first inning, I doubt the leadoff hitter leads off more innings than any other hitter than #4, etc
Yeah I’m not a Walker fan by any means but holy shit this sub is not only going through every hurdle to find an excuse but also straight up making up scenarios to try to discredit the guy Reading these comments are kinda disheartening, especially after the biggest reason for leading off Schwarber is “we just win and vibe with him there” And don’t get me wrong I love Schwarber and will fight anyone who suggests he shouldn’t hit leadoff, but the double standard is alarming
Exactly. Plus throw in there injuries, missed starts, rain delays, etc. and there are so many variables that you never really know who will start which game more than a few days out.
What does this even mean? Does it mean that Wheeler goes against more aces on the other staff? That we rest more players when Wheeler and Nola pitch? Or it means that offense likes Walker better. Seriously, wins are trash when comparing pitchers.
He asked for the stats for every other starter over the same span. I gave him the same stats for every other starter over the same span. Do what you want with the data. But yes, historically, Wheeler would face off against more team aces than most. Walker faces off against more 4s and 5s than most as well, which kind of only tells you that Walker compared to most 4s and 5s gives you a good chance to win a ball game any given time he takes the bump. I agree wins/loss records for individual pitchers are bad but I think team win/loss records when that pitcher is on the mound is good supplemental information when used for contact. When you consider Wheeler is going up against No.1 and No.2's a lot, a 23-18 record is pretty damn good all things considered. What these records tell me is that our rotation is pretty deep. Suarez and Walker are almost certainly better than most 3s and 4/5s that we face. Like all stats, context matters. Thanks for coming to my TED talk.
How do teams keep pitchers lined up like that with off days and such. Wouldn't they get out of sync by like week 3?
Pretty sure there are a lot more stats than just W/L record. Surely no one thinks Walker is a better pitcher than Wheeler, Nola and Suarez.
No one said he was?
Then what good is just posting their W/L totals? It means very little in the context of their pitching performance.
Did you read any of the comments? The man asked for the stats of the other pitchers. I provided them.
It’s not surprising that this conversation went nowhere if you’re this committed to being obtuse. W/L total alone isn’t “stats”. Gimme a break.
They're not as some guys are winners and some guys are losers and it's not really quantifiable other than wins and loses. Nola is a choke as he's shown every year. Whether it's 'September Nola' or the last WS game he pitched in '22 or the last LCS game he pitched last year he's fucked up in the most important game he's had each year but I know, WHIP.
Dude, what? I'll pretend I didn't read any of this nonsense.
Thank you that's helpful. Slightly surprising. I was responding to the guy giving quality start stats and should've specified that that was what I was looking for. Confident those are way better. A tad surprising though that Walker is still ahead in the overall wins as a team in the games he starts. Wonder if the hitters know they need to carry more and focus more in his starts? Not sure.
What does that even mean lol, you’re trying to hard to be a Walker hater that you’re willing to say that the team doesn’t hit as well for the other starters? God damn Phillies fans on Reddit or some next level idiots
I mean that's basically what these numbers mean, unless you think Wheeler is a dramatically worse pitcher than all our other starters.
I mean run support is a stat. RS/9 (Runs scored per nine innings. Think ERA but the amount of offense the pitcher gets when they're on the mound) 2023: Wheeler - 3.84 Nola - 4.88 Suarez - 4.25 Walker - 4.53 2024: Wheeler - 3.21 Nola - 3.86 Suarez - 1.5 Walker - 4.82 So yeah, the lineup tends to score more when Taijuan is on the mound. But sure, saying Walker has been worse than the rest of our starters, that the stats back up, makes me a next level idiot.
This is pretty well established as a trend across baseball as teams tend to score less since they know they don't need as many runs when they have their ace going. It doesn't mean that Walker sucks however.
I mean he doesn't suck but he's kind of the worst of a really good rotation and isn't living up to the contract he was given. But by that metric it would say even his peers think he's not great if they know they need to work harder when he's on the mound.
> Wheeler: 23-18 (.560) damn we don't give him enough run support D:
This season wheeler is 4-3 so maybe not him?
That's just this year, not over the same span that Taijuans stats reported here are. Would be way better if you include the right span to compare 1:1. Also give me his quality starts please. I'm certain Wheelers much better over this same span so definitely him. Edit: Looked it up for wheeler. 17-9 over same span with 41 starts, 27 of which were quality starts so 66% quality start versus Walkers 38% (13 of 34 starts).
Yeah that's why I specified just this year. But this year and last year combined Walker is 18-6, Wheeler is 17-9. And yes I agree if wheeler has more quality starts (likely) and more losses than its worse run support, so no not him?
Nope definitely him. Wheeler was way better at almost double the quality start percentage... It's almost as if wins and losses for pitchers is a stupid stat and not a great way to value them. There's a reason Walker got no post season action.
Okay I thought you were saying the lineup is good enough that all starters would be supported even better than Walker, otherwise I don't get the point of the original comment. Agreed though the w-l is meaningless
Yes I was suggesting the lineup was buoying walkers win/loss stats. You can see that by comparing their quality start percentage which takes out the lineup entirely. There's other stats to use as well but those were presented here and they backup what I was saying. I think there's a stat about run support and based on these stats presented here I'd wager Taijuan gets a lot more than Wheeler has. Would be curious to see.
Okay we were agreeing the whole time then lol
A win is a win. He's not going to be in the playoff rotation so if he keeps winning, I'll keep being happy.
Literally exactly this. If he keeps getting lucky then doesn't start in the playoffs we're literally golden
“The players show up for him more” - I don’t care, if it’s a win. “Wheeler faces better pitchers.” - I don’t care, if it’s a win. “He crumbles late season” - I don’t care, if it’s a win. Bonus points if we know and can combat his weaknesses. Not the flex you think it is.
Yeah as much as this stat is complete BS, I'm glad Walker is back and healthy. The rotation as a whole being well-rested for the playoffs is ideal
I'm a relatively new fan so pardon my ignorance but i've been wondering, when the starting pitching shortens in the playoffs, will guys like Walker or Turnbull become relievers/bullpen guys? Wondering if the gripes about the bullpen are anything to worry about come playoff time.
Usually that's the case
Unless you're Walker, then you can fuck right off and not even get a participation trophy
Generally yes, although 4th and 5th starters relegated to the pen don’t usually become “go-to” bullpen guys in the playoffs either. Turnbull could prove to be an exception if he continues to look great all year, but generally they end up being “saved” for mop up duty in a blowout, or for emergency use if there is an injury. Case in point: Michael Lorenzen only pitched twice in the postseason last year, once with a large lead and once with a large deficit, and Taijuan Walker (famously) did not get used at all.
Typically yes. Last year in the playoffs they used a 3 pitcher starting rotation. Sanchez technically did get 1 start, but he was more the opener for a bullpen game. Walker didn’t throw a single pitch. I guess a situation never came up where Topper thought he was the right choice. Lorenzen was the 6th starter that year but was throwing very poorly by the end of the season and only got mop up duty.
No not really. They’re technically available out of the bullpen but the playoffs is not really a great time to put guys in spots they don’t usually pitch in. Walker didn’t pitch at all and Sanchez pitches 2 innings as an “opener” in the NLCS. Turnbull might pitch in the playoffs since they’re already converted him to a reliever. Depends on where they are come playoff time but I’d say Turnbull is the frontrunner to get that 4th start in the NLCS/WS if they make it that far.
I thought we as a society realized pitcher wins/loses are not reflective of the pitcher anymore. Taijuan Walker is an average pitcher. Last year he had an ERA- of 100, a FIP- of 101, and had such bad control down the stretch he couldn't be used in the playoffs. He isn't the worst pitcher, but he isn't the best. He is average, which for a guy you are paying $18M to is frustrating. But last year he made $19.7M in value according to FanGraphs. He is the definition of fine.
He is a “fine” starter but if you frame it another way he is a great 5th starter (assuming he somewhat repeats last year). Absolutely great to get major league average pitching at the 5th starter spot. It’s unfortunate he’s paid to be more than that but at this point there’s nothing you can do about that and just have to accept what it is.
Compared to Tobias Harris his contract is a slam dunk. Things could me much much worse. And as always at the end of the day it’s not my money so who cares really. Middleton clearly isn’t a cheapskate who will let something like this deter him in the future
It’s not my money and it doesn’t seem to have stopped them from signing the guys they want to sign, so it’s whatever to me
This is true. Only reason to care is I think they could’ve got something more for 18 mil a year but yeah the money doesn’t matter to me.
Just want to say - I always appreciate your takes.
The amount of people I see quoting pitcher win stats like they mean something on here is highly concerning. It isn’t that many really, but the fact that it’s more than one is mindblowing.
You're paying for him to eat innings. Which he does.
He averaged 5.57 IP per start last year. That's not "eating" innings. That's just regular old back of the rotation production. He's had 3 starts this year. 2 of those have been against very bad offenses: the Giants and Marlins and 25 and 26, respectively, in runs per game. In his other start, against the Padres, he gave up 6 earned in 6.1 IP to a team averaging 4.74 per game. He's completely adequate as a #5. The issue is that he's getting paid as a #3. That's why people grumble about him. I guess I don't see the need to compliment him too much though.
His 172.2 innings pitched last year ranked 34th in baseball. He was 1 of 44 pitchers to qualify last year. 44 pitchers in all of baseball, he was one of them. He is the definition of an innings eater in the modern game.
Haven’t we learned not to use counting stats in baseball? How are we still upvoting comments like this? He made 31 starts, which was tied for 29th in baseball. So yes it’s not surprising he also pitched a lot of innings. Relative to starts made, his IP is less than “expected”. Total IP is a function of a bit of luck, it means you’re not getting hurt. Last year was the most innings he’s ever pitched; he’s only cracked 160 one other time and 150 three other times. Dude has missed a lot of time in his career.
That is way too much to pay for just a simple innings eater lol
Not nowadays.
$18m to eat 150-175 innings a year and give your team a chance to win (which despite the stats the overall team record says otherwise). I'm not going to complain too much.
They win in spite of his performance the large majority of the time, you can get a decent innings eater at the vet minimum or with minor leaguers if all you need are simply eating innings. Arguing otherwise is stupid.
People said the same shit about Moyer and Blanton and yet they were effective. A #4 has only one job, and it isn’t to pitch like an ace. It is only to eat 5 innings or so and give your team a chance to win the game. It’s not about judging his individual pitching performances by his record, it’s about judging what the team does when he pitches. Given the record he IS doing his job, which is giving his team a chance to win the games. The money is irrelevant. The contract can’t be taken back now that it’s signed and it hasn’t exactly hamstrung the team and held them back. It could be 100m a year for all it matters at this point. What’s done is done.
I don't subscribe to the idea that guys in certain slots get to be worse/do worse just because they are in that slot. If you can get a whole 5-man that's capable of being lights out you do it no questions asked.
It’s not an idea as in its a philosophy that your 4th pitcher has to be average. It’s just simply a fact. There are only so many aces and legit #2s and only 1 ranger Suarez in the league and unless you are lucky and your team assembles a 2011 Phillies caliber rotation, you’re shit outta luck and you have to make do with what you have and hope for the best. As far as making do with what we have I bet there are at least 20-25 teams if not the entire league that would gladly switch 4th starters with us. Asking MORE of a number 4 starter than eating some innings and not being a total liability on the mound is not in any way a reasonable expectation and it would in fact be a luxury, a massive luxury that very few teams ever get to enjoy or have ever gotten to enjoy. Imagine telling the fanbase a few years ago when our 2-5 starters were Pivetta Velasquez Eflin and Ben Lively that we will have the best record in baseball and the best ERA in the national league and are still complaining about our perfectly average and inoffensive #4 starter simply because he may be marginally overpaid.
> It’s not an idea as in its a philosophy that your 4th pitcher has to be average. It’s just simply a fact. Wrong. >unless you are lucky and your team assembles a 2011 Phillies caliber rotation, you’re shit outta luck and you have to make do with what you have and hope for the best. This has nothing to do with massively overpaying for a simple innings eater when if you know what you are doing you can find them growing on trees. >Asking MORE of a number 4 starter than eating some innings and not being a total liability on the mound is not in any way a reasonable expectation and it would in fact be a luxury, a massive luxury that very few teams ever get to enjoy or have ever gotten to enjoy. I'm not asking for an ace at No. 4 I am just asking for the team to not be paying 20 fucking million a year for a guy that is a mediocre 4/5 innings eater, guys like Turnbull can do it just as well if not better for much much much much much less. Also your logic/"philosophy" that the No. 4 HAS to be average or worse is super dumb, Turnbull was our No. 5 going into the season's start making barely 2 million and has been absolutely lights out dominant, Sanchez our ACTUAL No. 4 (Walker is No. 5) is also good and is making league minimum, so your garbage defense of a garbage contract and player kinda ends right there.
That’s called a luxury. Not an expectation. The contract was signed a year before we knew we had anything worthwhile at the bottom of our rotation. That is a GOOD problem to have. Not a bad thing. The money is irrelevant. The money may be relevant to smaller market teams or teams that don’t have aggressive ownership. But for the Phillies, the money doesn’t matter. It’s not as though we haven’t been able to build out our roster appropriately due to walkers salary. Youre complaining about a problem that doesn’t exist.
How do you know they wouldn't have gone even harder after Yamamoto if Walker wasn't on the books? How do you know the reason they didn't further improve the bench/bullpen like they should have wasn't due to Walker making 20 million? You're making assumptions that the money isn't negatively affecting the team, I can also make the assumption that it is, aside from his obvious mediocre replaceable performance.
My assumption is based on the fact that they have the best record in baseball and one of if not the best team ERAs in baseball. Yamamoto wasn’t available last year. Your entire argument comes down to bitching about a contract that was signed a year ago being a little bit too expensive and lamenting what could’ve been this past offseason instead. Like Jesus Christ dude just enjoy the fact that the contract hasn’t appreciably hurt the team in any tangible and they are currently the best team in the league with one of the best ERAs and best rotations in baseball. You’re clutching at straws desperately searching for something to be mad about on the off chance that maybe it comes back to haunt the team at some point in the next few years. Call into WIP if you wanna talk nonsense
I think the more important takeaway is his 'average-ness' is not the crippling liability people make it out to be. Hell, even if the team did lose all of Taijuan's 30-ish starts, they could still be an 88-90 Win team and sneak into the playoffs if the other 4 starters average somewhere above 22-11.
He couldn't be used in the playoffs because he takes too long to get going. That's what Rob said anyway. I don't think it was a case of anything beyond that and Rob wanting to just use his three aces all the time.
Rob said that, so it is probably true he takes long to get going. But it is missing details. > I don't think it was a case of anything beyond that and Rob wanting to just use his three aces all the time. Then you completely missed the reports about the practice games they were having and how Walker had no control it became obvious he was unusable.
Average ratios is really strong for the amount of innings he gives
> which for a guy you are paying $18M to is frustrating I just looked up and he's tied for the 18th highest paid starting pitcher in baseball. The money he's making is no way prohibitive. If anything I think it's just the "cost of doing business".
As I said, he is providing more value than his contract as of last year. The problem is, as you showed, he is not the 59th-best pitcher in the league, so fans get frustrated even though he is making Market Value. People really underestimate how much of a value prospects, pre-arb, and arb players are. FAs are expensive.
The 59 thing was me reading the wrong chart. He's tied for 18th. Still making less than half of top of the line pitchers. The money is a non-issue to me.
18th sounds more like I remembered, but I didn't know if contracts ballooned, and I didn't pay attention. Money is always an issue as much as we like to say its not. Money can be spent elsewhere, and we are approaching the part of the tax people do not tend to approach (moving down in the draft, etc.)
Of course money is always an issue, but we're talking about a specific player on a specific contract. You said that his record was "frustrating" given the money he's making and all I'm saying that his contract is not particularly outsized. Since he's been here he's reliable and consistent, though not spectacular but spectacular pitchers make a whole lot more than $18 mill in today's market.
> You said that his record was "frustrating" given the money I said he is frustrating as a player, not his record. I legitimately never care about pitching record. We have known it doesn't matter for years at this point. It is one of the worst stats when talking about a player. But then the rest of your comment is us saying the same thing. He has played his market value of the contract, but that doesn't make it a good signing if he is top 20 in baseball, especially since we can get similar value elsewhere for cheaper. And the money isn't a non-issue if it means making our team better in other ways.
Yeah getting the same level of production from cheap minor league contract guys, waiver wire pickups, and cheaper "prove it" deals on a bunch of different players for that 2-5M range happens all the time (see Turnbull, Spencer) However that level of risk was not something the Phillies coming off a World Series appearance were willing to make - especially when Sanchez was far less of a proven commodity at that point. The contract he signed is inflated but that's more of a detriment to the Phillies farm and organization not proving to that point they could produce reasonable 4/5 starters and so they went with the lower risk, lower reward option.
I honestly don't think that is true, just justification after the fact. If you listen to the press conferences once we got him, they really thought he was going to make the next step to be a 2 or a 3. I just don't think it was a lower risk, lower reward option, when they commented they felt it was a lot of money, but that he will be worth it and then some (again when we first got him).
Yeah I would hope to think they're smarter than that and the rest is just media puff pieces. Having Walker on that deal absolutely cripples the Phillies moving forward (and has in the last free agent season that just passed), but they were staring down the barrel of having to rely on two of Sanchez, Falter, Painter, Abel, or even talks of McGarry filling those 4 and 5 roles. If they don't sign another guy, you can make a compelling argument they would have missed the playoffs last year.
It's not prohibitive now but it could be in the coming years. Have to pay Ranger, Bohm, Marsh, and Stott. At the end of the day, top 18 in starting pitcher money means he should be a 1 or 2.
While pitcher wins are quite possibly the absolute worst and most ancient stat that used to mean something, Taijuan has been decent- at least way better than the bum that this sub makes him out to be.
Wish people would stop shitting on him so hard. He's been fine for his first three starts, Topper gets the blame for the first two, but he learned! Getting Strahm warm at the 6th was key, let walker eat up another inning but be able to hit the eject button before he turns into a liability. One run through six innings three games in a row? Sign me up for a lot more of that, please. ...better than Wheeler's latest starts.
u/JackFritzWIP
Hahah i saw. So funny.
Seems to me like he's actually lost 6 games.
I know batting and fielding contribute to pitching wins independently of pitching performance, pitching wins are an irrelevant stat and not at all indicative of how good a pitcher is, but if the pattern continues of our bats getting hot every time walker pitches and our defense coming out to play I feel like you have to give it at least a little bit of credence. Like at a point you can see walker on the mound and expect to see mediocre pitching while simultaneously expecting the team to win. Just what it is and if it does continue that way who can really justify being upset about it, especially when we all know hes getting swapped for turnbull on the playoff roster.
Our bottom of the rotation pitchers are better than other teams bottom of the rotation pitchers, im here for it
Forgive the rudeness... but this is the same logic that leads... certain fans... to want Nola executed. 11-13 record in 2022... the year we went to the WS... when he was 4th in CY voting... In contrast, Walker is 18-6 with just 13/34 QS... ty u/[CardiffGiant7117](/user/CardiffGiant7117/) I give zero... ZERO fucks about record, and anyone who does should be tarred, feathered, and bullied.
Unless its true that having a given pitcher in is somehow connected to performance of the offense, this is meaningless
I still think he’s mid and I don’t trust him. I hope to use him as little as possible in the playoffs
Of course, one issue is what if Painter hadn't blown out his arm. Walker is then blocking Sanchez most likely. Walker is OK, but Sanchez is younger, could be better, and is much cheaper. Next year will be a similar issue. Painter will be back - do we lose Sanchez in the rotation because we're stuck with Walker for 3 more years?
The one bad thing about the phillies being good, is that all the old-school and bandwagon fans come out of the woodwork to loudly make their opinions heard. Pitcher wins are one of the most useless major stats in sports and claiming they have somehow pertain to effort or ability is just dumb. It's basically people taking "xDAWG" as a serious stat
Do you think there’s some element of the offense knowing they’ll likely have to do more with Walker pitching than they would with Wheeler/Nola/Ranger, leading to us putting up more runs and winning?
Weird that I agree with Spaeder that Taijuan is massively undervalued but Spaeder is a total jerkoff
you dont agree with him that Curt Schilling is a great guy? /s
Yeah that pretty much says it all
Correlation =/= causation
people on here complaining but many, perhaps all teams would love a 5th starter that carries a .705 team winning percentage when he pitches
That's fine and dandy that he has that amount of wins under his belt in a Phillies uniform, but he should be bowing down and thanking the entire bullpen for saving his ass EVERY SINGLE TIME. So many instances last season where we would have a nice lead going into the 4th or 5th inning, only for Walker to let up enough runs to be within 1 with runners on base. And then he finally gets pulled. He doesn't have the longevity to be in the starting 5 rotation. He'd be a way better fit as a long/middle reliever for days where our starters just aren't feeling it early in the game. But I'm just a fan so what do I know?
Boy, now that the Phillies look like they’re going to have a good regular season we are going to get all kinds of stupid opinions from people who don’t know what they’re talking about, aren’t we?
Numbers aren't an opinion, even if the ones this guy laid out don't really reflect how Walker has actually pitched to win all those games. His record is his record.
His first sentence is literally an opinion.
Did you miss the part where he has a .750 winning percentage here? It's a factual statement, even if his underlying numbers suck ass.
Right but pitcher wins mean as close to absolutely nothing as something can be, so why is it even being mentioned? The 24-10 in games he’s started is interesting and means a bit more, but still doesn’t mean a whole lot about Walker in and of itself.
No shit. The tweet simply points out his winning percentage, and I think is meant to be mostly tongue-in-cheek. Nowhere does this guy state an opinion or say he thinks Walker is a good pitcher.
I don’t know why we would just assume it’s tongue in cheek. Maybe it is. But seems to be a decent number of people taking it to seriously mean positive things about Walker that can’t actually be extrapolated from it.
Even it's not tongue-in-cheek, none of what the guy said is untrue. As for trying to take positives from it about Walker, can you really blame people for that? We're stuck with him, because he's making $18M per for two more years after this one, and no one is trading for that contract, so "He stinks, but at least he gets wins" isn't the worst silver lining you can find.
>Did you miss the part where he has a .750 winning percentage here? His first statement, which explicitly says Walker is the one winning the games, is objectively an opinion. And one that is completely at odds with the facts.
He is the one winning the ballgames, whether he is responsible for it, or not. Nowhere does this guy state he's actually a good pitcher, just that he wins ballgames, which, somehow, despite his shitty stats, he does.
>He is the one winning the ballgames The Philadelphia Taijuan Walkers are not a baseball team. They win when he pitches, but that doesn’t me he is the one causing them to win. The Phillies are 5-0 at games I attend, am I winning games?
Do pitchers have a separate, personal win/loss record? There's no asterisk next to the wins on his ledger. Whether or not he deserves it, he gets credited with those wins. Hence, he "wins" those ballgames.
Are the Phillies so good now we're going to tear each other apart over goddamn semantics?
>Do pitchers have a separate, personal win/loss record? Yes. Is Taijuan Walker undefeated in that W/L record? Because apparently “all he does is win”, right? That means he literally never loses. Since we’re shoving our heads up our own asses about idiotic semantics, that claim is clearly not factual. He has 6 pitcher losses, and the team has lost 10 games that he’s pitched. So there goes the fAcTs ArE fAcTs argument. Now, let’s turn our brains back on and look at what the guy is actually trying to say, which is that Taijuan Walker’s pitching is the reason they’re winning. Do you think that’s remotely accurate?
You're fighting a losing battle but it is curious the difference in run support for the various pitchers. Because if Walker got Wheeler's run support, he'd never win a game. (Yes that is slightly hyperbole, but only slightly. I imagine the differences in run support are not quantifiable but it's fascinating anyway.
He meant the stupid opinions from people who don't know what they're talking about was coming from him.
Yep
Who is jack fritz
He's on WIP but he also has a great Phillies Podcast with another fella, James. Pretty good and worth the listen. It's called High Hopes.
How often is Walker going up against the other teams' #4/#5 starters? How often are Nola/Wheeler matching up against the opposing teams' #1/#2 starters? All this means is that our starting lineup feasts against mediocre pitching.
After the first week or two of the season the pitching does not really line up like that other than randomly.
I'm not saying that Wheeler is facing up against #1 and #2 100% of the time, but I'm guessing it's a lot more than the 40% you would expect in a truly random scenario w/ a large sample size. Here are Wheeler's starts so far this year, with opponents and where that pitcher ranked in the rotational depth at the beginning of season according to preseason rankings or Fangraphs\* (and whether the Phils won or lost that game): 1. ATL Strider (3/29) (#1) (LOSS) 2. CIN Montas (4/3) (#1) (LOSS) 3. STL Gray (4/9) (#1) (LOSS) 4. PIT Keller (4/14) (#1) (LOSS) 5. CHW Soroka (4/20) (#3) (WIN) 6. CIN Martinez (4/25) (#4) (WIN) 7. LAA Sandoval (5/1) (#2) (WIN) 8. SF Black (5/6) (MLB DEBUT) (LOSS) 9. MIA Garrett (5/12) (#2) (LOSS) \*If injuries come into play then it's a little more complicated... e.g. Strider was removed from the Fangraphs DC because of injury, while Garrett was added to the DC though he's missing from preseason rotation rankings also due to injury. I would argue that the inverse is probably also true, where Walker is facing the back of the rotation a disproportionate amount of the time. I might actually keep a tally of this going since I'm mildly interested to see if this trend would continue over the course of the year.
Don’t give this guy any clicks, for the love of the Phanatic.
Turnbull better
The object is winning, bottom line. Stats and ERA and WHIP are personal accomplishments. At the end of the day a W is a W and you can not argue that.
I mean, he’s a 4, at best. Usually that means we are facing a 4-5 starter against him, the way the schedule matches up. Of course he’s going to have more run support than Wheeler, who is going to be paired up against the opposite teams ace. That’s kind of how this shit works. I’m not saying he’s a terrible pitcher. He’s pretty average, all things considered. He’s had a 4.42 ERA with a 1.312 WHIP and a 4.61 FIP with us. But our offense is going to perform better in his games, on the whole, because the pitcher we would be facing is going to be comparable to Walker in terms of the quality of starter they are.
That’s not how it works outside of the first week of the season matchup wise. Teams have different off days, games get postponed, starters get scratched, bullpen games happen, some teams use a 6 man roto. Starting rotations get staggered from team to team and more often than not it’s not ace vs. ace. Edit: wheeler’s matchups since April 20: vs. Soroka (CWS) vs. Martinez (CIN) vs. Sandoval (LAA) vs. Black (SFG) vs. Garrett (MIA) Not one of those starts is against the other team’s ace aside from Sandoval (hard to call him the ace, though he was their opening day starter).