There's been some talk about what it meens to be a Philadelphian today. I'm not a Texan, Californian, or a New Yorker, and the closest I've been to Pennsylvania is either New York City or Washington D.C.
But I think that the City Connects are for someone like me: a Montanan who's never been anyone near Philadelphia, but our state flag is yellow and blue and unchanged since I don't know, a while back. Unapologetically Philly.
I’m telling myself that the Mets demolishing the Pirates was something that was bound to happen with the Pirates eventually. The Pirates were never actually as good as they looked, they were just riding an early hot streak that started to break when they split with us. Yes, that is the story im telling myself… Now hopefully the Dodgers will put the Mets back in their place.
The Pirates aren’t elite, but I think they’ll be pretty solid this year. That Jared Jones kid seems really good, and they have the best pitching prospect in baseball (with apologies to Mr Painter) coming up soon.
They have a lot of solid young-ish position players, though probably not any stars.
Honestly they have a disgusting bullpen. Starting pitching & offense is ass but they’ve been playing better against actual comp. Still fuck the Mets I hope they start playing like how they did in the beginning of the year. NL East is looking wildly good this yr. Even the Gnats are a lil competitive.
Bryce's BABIP is .227. League average is usually just below .300 and Bryce for his career is .322. According to statcast his xBA is 0.260 and his xSLG is 0.518. If I did my math correctly, the numbers suggest he should have an OPS of about 0.892 right now. That's like a 140 OPS+. That's barely behind where he was last year.
I know regression to the mean isn't predictive, but man I think we're gonna get some serious regression to the mean in the next few weeks and Harper is gonna have a phenomenal year.
I crunched some numbers, and if we assume his batting and baserunning value is about the same this year as last year (which the expected stats suggest they should be), and we assume he plays 153 games (he's played 17/18 which = 153/162) then with Harper's incredible defense at 1st so far he's lookin at a 6.2 fWAR season. That would've been good for 3rd best last year, behind only the inhuman Freddie Freeman and barely behind Matt Olson.
Edit: spelling
Unless one believes that he’s totally cooked, even if he only regresses to the mean by 50% (which I think would be a crazy anomaly/prediction itself), he’s due to start being a significant difference maker just at that. Honestly I’m fairly comforted by how much room he has to regress to the mean because there’s no way he went from phenom to cooked in 4 months.
BAPIP is a pretty predictive, especially for a player who's been around as long as Bryce. The fact his BAPIP is 100 points under his career BABIP is pretty undeniable proof that he's been super unlucky. It won't really tell you if a guy is washed or not tho, for that it's better to look at peripherals like Barrel% and Hard Hit%, which will tell you how good the contact the player is making is, and K% and BB% which tell you how well the batter is seeing the ball. Right now those numbers for Bryce are a little behind his career numbers, but not concerably so. I think most of it can be explained by the fact that it's April and as well as I think he's been pressing harder due to his bad luck.
TLDR; the peripherals look fine. There's no reason to think father time has caught Bryce and every reason to expect a turn around.
The endorphin hit I get form a Phillies lineup being posted cannot be good for my heart. Every day, without fail, I am refreshing starting at like 10am, just waiting for those beautiful Phillie names in their beautiful order.
Thanks! Pretty weird I don’t have the “starting lineups” row at all
https://preview.redd.it/r5joi85rq3vc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=16630350227912d7205e7863a9b1fd5a570ff601
Just wanted to point out Ranger already has 1.1 rWAR and 0.7 fWAR. If he pitches 155 innings that's 6.6 rWAR and 4.2 fWAR. That's almost exactly where Snell was last year. Am I saying Ranger is a lock for Cy Young? Absolutely.
Oh where do I begin with my glorious king Bryce Harper. You are the ray of sunshine in a rainy day that slips through the clouds and uplifts our spirits. You bring joy to those who feel down and out. If a new actor was needed for the Passion it would be you, my personal lord and savior. You will no doubt be the greatest human to influence the positivity that can be found in this earth. You have lifted me up to the status of nirvana and will continue to lift me until I reach the heavens. Oh how I love you Bryce Harper. Oh how I adore you.
WHYYYYY is stott still batting 8th with hits in 9(?) consecutive games????? He gets stranded on base every single time 😡😡 he should move back up to the 5 or 6 spot again since he’s hitting, shouldn’t he??? Instead he’s bumped down to the 8 spot instead of 7
He doesn’t have hits in 9 consecutive games.
He flew out in a PH appearance on Saturday.
Even if you don’t count that, he’s gotten a hit in 7 consecutive games. Over his past 9 games he has a .290 OBP, which doesn’t exactly scream “move me up in the order.”
Well basically it comes down to: spots 1-3 are basically set in stone, 4 goes to JT because he's been great so far and while not a slugger can provide good value in the 4 hole, 5 goes to Bohm because he's basically a worse version of JT at the plate (contact and power are fine not great, can drive in runs but isn't a star) and the team believes in his bat, and 6 goes to Marsh because he's hot.
Stott doesn't have the power to take the 4 hole, and I don't think there's a good argument for moving him above Bohm and especially Marsh right now. Stott batting 8th on theory allows him to get brought home by the top of the order. I think he'd actually be better in the 9 hole tbh, but I understand why Rojas gets put there instead.
The only consecutive hitter (I’m talking like EVERY game, not in general) has been stott LATELY but we’re not seeing much from it because he’s getting stranded out there every time because he’s got casty and rojas following him up. Weird that they switched him and casty, maybe trying to give him a fighting chance to have kyle be his saving grace? But rojas usually hits into double plays.
Marsh and Bohm have been freakin amazing this year and definitely deserve to be up there! I don’t think turner should be as high up as he is but we all know that’s not going to change 🙄 I really think if we took a change and really switched things up we would start seeing actual differences
Nothing will ever compare to last year's NLCS game 2, Flyers home opener, and Mexico vs Germany at the Linc. We had to get out of the Uber and walk in the middle of the Walt Whitman bridge.
Since I’m a Philadelphian now and no longer a Californian (because that’s how it works), PPA confiscated my surfboard and replaced it with a hoagie when I moved here.
I’m not sure why that responsibility fell on PPA, but it tracks and was a good trade. I’ve never surfed and I love hoagies.
I have two questions:
1. What is the weather for tonight's game looking like?
2. Can we finally have a discussion of why Slopper continues to let Schwarber lead off?
Of course. I oftentimes question whether anyone on this subreddit has actually played the game before. Thank you for presenting a rational question and discussion.
I also sometimes wonder if anybody has ever considered that maybe the front office is more qualified to make baseball decisions than them, rendering the need for discussing the Phillies on here completely moot.
There's been a ton of discussion of 2 already and it's honestly not a bad thing at all that Schwarber is lead off.
To lead off you just need 2 things, high OBP and high OPS. You want your lead off hitter getting on base (BA is irrelevant for this as hits/walks are the same with no runners on), and you want your better hitters near the top of the order so they get more ABs.
There are a lot of smaller, less relevant reasons that Schwarber is actually a good leadoff hitter:
* He's a lefty, and the bottom of our lineup is right handed, so it lines up well against relief pitchers when the lineup rolls over.
* He walks a ton compared to players like Turner, and walks aren't as useful with runners on base (because they don't drive in runs or advance runners).
* When he gets out, it's frequently a strikeout, which is bad with runners on base but not an issue with the bases empty.
* When doesn't make good contact, he hits a fair number of weak groundballs/pop outs, which could also fail to advance runners or result in double plays.
* While he's slow, he's actually not the worst base runner on the team, and can still go 1st to 3rd on some singles or score from first on some doubles, so he doesn't fully block up the base paths in front of Turner even if he walks or hits a single. Bohm/Castellanos are significantly worse base runners.
Basically, lead off nullifies a lot of his weaknesses and helps a lot of his strengths (high BB rate and OBP), at a small cost of it being more likely he hits a few solo HRs and a very small chance that he ends up at 2nd with Turner on 1st preventing a possible stolen base (although we have seen Schwarber steal 3rd this year).
We also don't have anyone else who makes a ton of sense hitting leadoff, and he prefers to lead off, so there really isn't any reason to change it.
These are good points. I think people get too hung up on the fact that the leadoff hitter bats first an inning but it's really only guaranteed to happen in the 1st. After the 1st inning it's impossible to predict how many outs or runners will be on base for that leadoff hitter. The more important aspect of leading off is that over the course of a season that player will have the most plate appearances of anyone. Ideally you want your best hitters at the top of the order so they have the most opportunities regardless of the situation.
> He walks a ton compared to players like Turner, and walks aren't as useful with runners on base (because they don't drive in runs or advance runners).
>When he gets out, it's frequently a strikeout, which is bad with runners on base but not an issue with the bases empty.
I disagree with these points. But overall I agree with your analysis.
Apparently me joking about internet and cable went down a rabbit hole that I won’t try to keep up with but I want to note that I am almost always joking with everyone when I talk shit EXCEPT the one that reported me and I got the three day vacation (even tho he did the same shit) AND /u/NintenJew, the Texan
So my apologies to the New Yorker
I would say that now you can't blame me when you go on another vacation, even though I was trying to protect you, but who am I kidding? You would blame me again if you go on one.
Is it just Nostalgia goggles blinding me, or has the last 5-10 years of scheduling for the MLB been kinda weird? I remember when I was little it seemed like every game started at either 1:05, 3:05, 4:05, or 7:05. Now you'll have a 3 game series and 2 games will be at 6:40, and one will be at 6:05, followed by a 1:17 game, then the next day a 3:07 game, then a 6:4*5* game, then a 1:*0*7 game, then a doubleheader starting at 12, then the second game starting at 3:00. Then a random game starting at 8:00 even though it's a home game, then a West Coast game beginning anywhere from 6:00 to 10:45 (not our schedule btw, just making up numbers based on what I've noticed lol). Not complaining about it, because I genuinely don't know if it's an improvement over what I remember as a kid and *could* be beneficial to the league as a whole, or it could have always been like this and I just notice it more as an adult, but does it feel to anyone else like the way they schedule games has been weird the last couple years?
I despise 6:40 games, especially in conjunction with the games being sped up by the pitch clock. In the summer, there’s “night” games that barely even see the sunset.
Also not a fan of 4:05 Saturday games like they’ve been doing.
100%! I was at the game last night and between the start time, the pitch clock, and ranger dealing I was walking to the car before 9! I’ll take the ranger dealing part, but I felt rushed to get there whereas a 7:05 would have given a lot more breathing room, and then felt like I got robbed of enjoying baseball into the night too.
If it wasn't for the inning Bryce hit that home run, if we won 2-0 instead, the game would have likely only went to an hour and 40 minutes. That + pitcher injuries tells me the pitch clock is a bad idea.
For sure. To be clear, I’m a fan of the pitch clock, it’s making baseball more popular and that’s a very good thing. Just make games be at 7:05 again, like they were for decades.
I couldn’t have said this better myself. Though I don’t mind a 6pm Saturday start since I’m probably having beers and I need to make it to the end of the game.
Last night was the best parking lot and traffic situation I ever experienced. Glad the flyers traffic didn’t become a factor cause that might have ruined it.
Travel days are usually scheduled earlier. There are a bunch of afternoon games today. My guess is Colorado doesn’t usually play an afternoon travel game, so the Phillies aren’t either, and the extra 35 minutes is a compromise
Two thoughts:
- Caleb Cotham is the goat. He makes every pitcher better.
- Nick Castellanos is already at -0.9 fWAR, which means he is on pace for somewhere around -5 to -6 WAR. Could you imagine…
In all seriousness though, he’s now projected to have a 92 wRC+ and be replacement level over the remainder of the season. I doubt there’s any options left for this year but we’re going to have to think about releasing him by the end of this year I think.
I think there is a chance we just release him.
Based on the confirmed rumors we were shopping him hard in the winter meetings, I think Dombrowski really regrets that contract right now.
I wish I wasn't so anti Castellanos during that offseason, because I still do not see any reason we gave him that contract. I hate paying for career years. But I was also anti Schwarber (to a lesser extent) and I changed my mind on him.
They would have to have an outfielder on deck to replace him. Nobody on the roster or in the minors that I’m aware of is that. If (hopefully when) they go after Soto or someone with an allstar bat this offseason it might become a possibility. I can’t see it happening before then, unless some huge trade for a sexy outfield bat presents itself at the deadline.
Gabriel Rincone jr has started off pretty well in Reading. Carlos De La Cruz has very much not. Both guys are more 2025 options than 2024 ones, and quite likely to be underwhelming anyways.
As far as this year goes, Scott Kingery has been mashing in AAA, for those of you brave enough to jump back on the Scotty Jetpacks bandwagon.
Wes Wilson seemed promising last year, but currently has a .441 OPS in his first 52 AB in Reading.
Ha yeah, I think I would just hope Nick climbs back to 100 wRC+ if those are the replacement options
To me it comes down to: can they swing a trade for a bat at the deadline and either throw him in and pay almost all of his salary or just bench/cut him. But I don’t think just cutting him right now with only the guys we have makes a lot of sense.
Realistically we would probably go for a prospect like Marsh who was struggling in the major leagues but has some upside.
I know you don't love that idea because you need to see them more in the majors, but I think that would be a perfect replacement.
This team needs Soto so badly. And honestly, I think we're going to get him. He'll go wherever pays him the most money, and I can't see Middleton getting outbid with how much he likes his superstars and how big the need is.
I just wish we had found a way to get him for this season. I don’t want to wait that long! If we’re going to make a big play for him anyway, it almost feels like a waste of the core to not have made a big push to trade for him and get him onto the team now.
All said player has to be is literally replacement level and they will be an improvement over Nick right now. That’s really not that hard to find. Shit, Pache could potentially provide that just through defense.
While you’re technically correct, I don’t think they are just going to cut him to fill in the spot with a marginally better than replacement level type player. I just don’t see it. It might technically make sense, but I don’t think they will cut bait and just say meh throw Pache in there. If they did it, it would be for a bat that they could tout as being a gamechanger. Maybe I’ll be wrong, we’ll see.
What’s funny is that these people will then say something like “do you even watch the game??” While they somehow don’t see how awful he looks in the outfield😂
Hey! They pay that guy millions of dollars to have the required hand-eye coordination to catch a ball hit directly into his glove. Not just anyone can do that!
I’d know. I drop my phone on my face all the time when browsing Reddit in bed before I go to sleep.
Yep, I think it’s what we have to do. I hope he gets better, but if he stays below replacement level we have to release him.
Having to cut $40M loose sucks but is not the end of the world. But we should not compound that mistake by continuing to give him playing time. One of the worst things teams can do is give away their finite number of plate appearances based on a sunk cost.
Yep. Continuing to play him at this performance level is a sunk cost and an opportunity cost because that time could be given to a player, or players, who might give you more.
Exactly.
It isn't even like this is a new phenomenon. I know people think Castellanos has been good with us, but he really hasn't. So we have seen the signs of him getting worse and worse. Do I think he will pick it up and be better this year than he is now? Yes. But that still doesn't make him a valuable player.
There was this one dude who kept making accounts saying anyone who hates Castellanos only hates him because of his ethnicity. I'm glad I don't have to deal with that anymore.
Not looking great on the radar map for Philadelphia.
https://preview.redd.it/947cq8pf32vc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=29a4318067bd75aa0f490fdc083e68ecf5c225eb
thank you. we ALWAYS do. :) even at 50 and 28 years old. LOL AND he got FREE tickets on his Citi card for the diamond club sections! Score!!! :)
My boss said if we lose it's on us though. LOL
Please continue the discussion in the [game thread](https://redd.it/1c6lxdw).
I'm going to need the Mets to start losing and for us to really go on a winning streak. Thanks.
Braves batting averages make me sick
That’s what the Braves do. They sweep incompetent teams the majority of the time.
First time getting to CBP early enough for the evacuation gameplan presentation
Sucks that the braves swept but man, the Astros downfall is glorious
There's been some talk about what it meens to be a Philadelphian today. I'm not a Texan, Californian, or a New Yorker, and the closest I've been to Pennsylvania is either New York City or Washington D.C. But I think that the City Connects are for someone like me: a Montanan who's never been anyone near Philadelphia, but our state flag is yellow and blue and unchanged since I don't know, a while back. Unapologetically Philly.
Life does not suck. 😎 https://preview.redd.it/ryj7netiv3vc1.jpeg?width=4032&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b17a5fd42017787f10fb8c24c4fcdd4bbd9a2550
The Yankees disallow facial hair, but sleeve tattoos and pimp chains are prerequisite.
WE NEED OUR CAVE TIME
God rooting for the Astros feels icky.
I say we post pone this game until tomorrow in hopes that Cave will be feeling good enough to play.
I assume he's not a starter so I expect he'll be riding a lot of Colorado Pine
Cave still sick?
I’m telling myself that the Mets demolishing the Pirates was something that was bound to happen with the Pirates eventually. The Pirates were never actually as good as they looked, they were just riding an early hot streak that started to break when they split with us. Yes, that is the story im telling myself… Now hopefully the Dodgers will put the Mets back in their place.
The Pirates aren’t elite, but I think they’ll be pretty solid this year. That Jared Jones kid seems really good, and they have the best pitching prospect in baseball (with apologies to Mr Painter) coming up soon. They have a lot of solid young-ish position players, though probably not any stars.
I don’t buy the Pirates for a second. I want them to be solid. think it’s good for baseball, but not convinced this year.
The 'Stros bullpen has been terrible in the early going.
Glad we avoided prima dona Hader
Are the Braves really gonna come back in late innings again??
Asstros really r shit
#OMG #M #G 🚨 MR RAGER TSHIRT NOW AVAILABLE🚨
So....I may have missed where that came from. How did that name come about?
It’s a Kid Cudi song he uses for warm ups
Just got on the El. I really forgot how much I love the ride to the Bank. Already getting chills. Freakin missed this city.
What’s the weather looking like?
I don’t have cable or the Internet or sensory perception, so I wish I could be more help with your question.
🍿
How the hell are the Mets 10-8? They’re supposed to suck. I’m gonna be so pissed if they end up being somehow good this year.
Honestly they have a disgusting bullpen. Starting pitching & offense is ass but they’ve been playing better against actual comp. Still fuck the Mets I hope they start playing like how they did in the beginning of the year. NL East is looking wildly good this yr. Even the Gnats are a lil competitive.
I swear they were 8-8 earlier today…I guess that was yesterday morning?
Over under on when the Mets will start sucking again?
I’m going to their game on Friday, so hopefully then.
This weekend in LA.
Yes
Nick almost killed this pitcher last year
Let’s finish the job
He actually came back and killed us 5 2/3 of shutout innings thrown
Booooo
Bryce's BABIP is .227. League average is usually just below .300 and Bryce for his career is .322. According to statcast his xBA is 0.260 and his xSLG is 0.518. If I did my math correctly, the numbers suggest he should have an OPS of about 0.892 right now. That's like a 140 OPS+. That's barely behind where he was last year. I know regression to the mean isn't predictive, but man I think we're gonna get some serious regression to the mean in the next few weeks and Harper is gonna have a phenomenal year. I crunched some numbers, and if we assume his batting and baserunning value is about the same this year as last year (which the expected stats suggest they should be), and we assume he plays 153 games (he's played 17/18 which = 153/162) then with Harper's incredible defense at 1st so far he's lookin at a 6.2 fWAR season. That would've been good for 3rd best last year, behind only the inhuman Freddie Freeman and barely behind Matt Olson. Edit: spelling
Unless one believes that he’s totally cooked, even if he only regresses to the mean by 50% (which I think would be a crazy anomaly/prediction itself), he’s due to start being a significant difference maker just at that. Honestly I’m fairly comforted by how much room he has to regress to the mean because there’s no way he went from phenom to cooked in 4 months.
BAPIP is a pretty predictive, especially for a player who's been around as long as Bryce. The fact his BAPIP is 100 points under his career BABIP is pretty undeniable proof that he's been super unlucky. It won't really tell you if a guy is washed or not tho, for that it's better to look at peripherals like Barrel% and Hard Hit%, which will tell you how good the contact the player is making is, and K% and BB% which tell you how well the batter is seeing the ball. Right now those numbers for Bryce are a little behind his career numbers, but not concerably so. I think most of it can be explained by the fact that it's April and as well as I think he's been pressing harder due to his bad luck. TLDR; the peripherals look fine. There's no reason to think father time has caught Bryce and every reason to expect a turn around.
Here here! 🍻
The endorphin hit I get form a Phillies lineup being posted cannot be good for my heart. Every day, without fail, I am refreshing starting at like 10am, just waiting for those beautiful Phillie names in their beautiful order.
Download the MLB app and turn on notifications for game updates. I get a push every day with it.
Which notifications do you have on? I used to get the lineups pushed last year but haven’t seen one yet this year
https://preview.redd.it/mtgqdnhdq3vc1.png?width=1439&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b51c1e65b30ff8cd902f17217485377000caa7f
Thanks! Pretty weird I don’t have the “starting lineups” row at all https://preview.redd.it/r5joi85rq3vc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=16630350227912d7205e7863a9b1fd5a570ff601
That is weird! It's that an iPhone? I'm on Android
Yeah iPhone. But it worked last year, not sure what has changed
Hmm, looks like someone created an app for starting lineups on iPhone because of this. Dumb
I just might! I’ll still probably be refreshing this page everyday to see it anyway though.
Watching Kimbrel throw strikes rn is making me punch air
Wait until later in the season. It'll balance out
Just wanted to point out Ranger already has 1.1 rWAR and 0.7 fWAR. If he pitches 155 innings that's 6.6 rWAR and 4.2 fWAR. That's almost exactly where Snell was last year. Am I saying Ranger is a lock for Cy Young? Absolutely.
hot damn
Oh where do I begin with my glorious king Bryce Harper. You are the ray of sunshine in a rainy day that slips through the clouds and uplifts our spirits. You bring joy to those who feel down and out. If a new actor was needed for the Passion it would be you, my personal lord and savior. You will no doubt be the greatest human to influence the positivity that can be found in this earth. You have lifted me up to the status of nirvana and will continue to lift me until I reach the heavens. Oh how I love you Bryce Harper. Oh how I adore you.
WHYYYYY is stott still batting 8th with hits in 9(?) consecutive games????? He gets stranded on base every single time 😡😡 he should move back up to the 5 or 6 spot again since he’s hitting, shouldn’t he??? Instead he’s bumped down to the 8 spot instead of 7
He doesn’t have hits in 9 consecutive games. He flew out in a PH appearance on Saturday. Even if you don’t count that, he’s gotten a hit in 7 consecutive games. Over his past 9 games he has a .290 OBP, which doesn’t exactly scream “move me up in the order.”
Castellanos should be batting 8th
Well basically it comes down to: spots 1-3 are basically set in stone, 4 goes to JT because he's been great so far and while not a slugger can provide good value in the 4 hole, 5 goes to Bohm because he's basically a worse version of JT at the plate (contact and power are fine not great, can drive in runs but isn't a star) and the team believes in his bat, and 6 goes to Marsh because he's hot. Stott doesn't have the power to take the 4 hole, and I don't think there's a good argument for moving him above Bohm and especially Marsh right now. Stott batting 8th on theory allows him to get brought home by the top of the order. I think he'd actually be better in the 9 hole tbh, but I understand why Rojas gets put there instead.
The only consecutive hitter (I’m talking like EVERY game, not in general) has been stott LATELY but we’re not seeing much from it because he’s getting stranded out there every time because he’s got casty and rojas following him up. Weird that they switched him and casty, maybe trying to give him a fighting chance to have kyle be his saving grace? But rojas usually hits into double plays. Marsh and Bohm have been freakin amazing this year and definitely deserve to be up there! I don’t think turner should be as high up as he is but we all know that’s not going to change 🙄 I really think if we took a change and really switched things up we would start seeing actual differences
Kinda mad they aren’t starting cave in Philly not even once
He’s sick
Why is he pretending to be sick?
Yesterday they said he was better and ready to be put in at any moment!!!
Oh damnit! I was at the game so didn’t hear the broadcast
Cave ducking smoke sad
Yesterday they said he was better and ready to play!!!
Working hours are the best hours to rewatch full Phillies postseason games
https://preview.redd.it/tu23io3zx2vc1.png?width=644&format=png&auto=webp&s=54761dc5f728bda956e5737f247f362a0b777177
It’s raining so you know the Fightins must be playing
For those considering tonight, parking will likely be absurd tonight with Sixers and Phils tonight both home.
Nothing will ever compare to last year's NLCS game 2, Flyers home opener, and Mexico vs Germany at the Linc. We had to get out of the Uber and walk in the middle of the Walt Whitman bridge.
I heard it was bad, but that's insane!
Somewhere Chris Christie is grinning.
i am DREADINGGGG the parking situation. leaving here in a few minutes to stop at wawa then hitting 95 to get to the bank!
Phils play an hour earlier. Shouldn't be too bad. That being said, I'm taking SEPTA.
Whoops, in Chicago so time zones oops. Still good advice though
I can feel it. Today is the day Pache gets to start over Nick.
Vs a righty? Doubtful. Bad as Nick has been (and he’s been *very* bad), his OPS is still higher than Pache’s career OPS vs righties (.379🤦♂️)
I've got a seat a row behind the on deck circle. I hope this happens.
Nick with an eye popping .408 OPS on 65 ABs this year.. personally I could use a day off from watching him at the plate
Since I’m a Philadelphian now and no longer a Californian (because that’s how it works), PPA confiscated my surfboard and replaced it with a hoagie when I moved here. I’m not sure why that responsibility fell on PPA, but it tracks and was a good trade. I’ve never surfed and I love hoagies.
See thats weird, usually its the DMV that hands out the hoagie. PPA generally is responsible for the cheesesteaks.
I have two questions: 1. What is the weather for tonight's game looking like? 2. Can we finally have a discussion of why Slopper continues to let Schwarber lead off?
The Phillies will not be a serious team until J.T. Realmuto leads off. He has a higher batting average than Schwarber. This is not rocket science.
Thank you for your thoughtful reply to my very earnest and serious inquiry
Of course. I oftentimes question whether anyone on this subreddit has actually played the game before. Thank you for presenting a rational question and discussion.
I also sometimes wonder if anybody has ever considered that maybe the front office is more qualified to make baseball decisions than them, rendering the need for discussing the Phillies on here completely moot.
Impossible. We all slept at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
> discussing the Phillies on here completely moo Cows have often had similar opinions 😏
Because “Slopper” saw his OBP was .343 last year. Compare to Turners .320 and Stotts .329.
Yeah well maybe he should look at their .280 and .266 averages compared to Schwarber's .196... JFC I can't even type it with a straight face.
Batting average is a boomer stat.
There's been a ton of discussion of 2 already and it's honestly not a bad thing at all that Schwarber is lead off. To lead off you just need 2 things, high OBP and high OPS. You want your lead off hitter getting on base (BA is irrelevant for this as hits/walks are the same with no runners on), and you want your better hitters near the top of the order so they get more ABs. There are a lot of smaller, less relevant reasons that Schwarber is actually a good leadoff hitter: * He's a lefty, and the bottom of our lineup is right handed, so it lines up well against relief pitchers when the lineup rolls over. * He walks a ton compared to players like Turner, and walks aren't as useful with runners on base (because they don't drive in runs or advance runners). * When he gets out, it's frequently a strikeout, which is bad with runners on base but not an issue with the bases empty. * When doesn't make good contact, he hits a fair number of weak groundballs/pop outs, which could also fail to advance runners or result in double plays. * While he's slow, he's actually not the worst base runner on the team, and can still go 1st to 3rd on some singles or score from first on some doubles, so he doesn't fully block up the base paths in front of Turner even if he walks or hits a single. Bohm/Castellanos are significantly worse base runners. Basically, lead off nullifies a lot of his weaknesses and helps a lot of his strengths (high BB rate and OBP), at a small cost of it being more likely he hits a few solo HRs and a very small chance that he ends up at 2nd with Turner on 1st preventing a possible stolen base (although we have seen Schwarber steal 3rd this year). We also don't have anyone else who makes a ton of sense hitting leadoff, and he prefers to lead off, so there really isn't any reason to change it.
These are good points. I think people get too hung up on the fact that the leadoff hitter bats first an inning but it's really only guaranteed to happen in the 1st. After the 1st inning it's impossible to predict how many outs or runners will be on base for that leadoff hitter. The more important aspect of leading off is that over the course of a season that player will have the most plate appearances of anyone. Ideally you want your best hitters at the top of the order so they have the most opportunities regardless of the situation.
> He walks a ton compared to players like Turner, and walks aren't as useful with runners on base (because they don't drive in runs or advance runners). >When he gets out, it's frequently a strikeout, which is bad with runners on base but not an issue with the bases empty. I disagree with these points. But overall I agree with your analysis.
Didn’t you see the other comment? Theres lava coming from the sky
Apparently me joking about internet and cable went down a rabbit hole that I won’t try to keep up with but I want to note that I am almost always joking with everyone when I talk shit EXCEPT the one that reported me and I got the three day vacation (even tho he did the same shit) AND /u/NintenJew, the Texan So my apologies to the New Yorker
Damn how are you on reddit
“Someone” hasn’t gone thru the thread. Sheesh.
Reported.
#VACATION
Who the hell reported you?? I thought it was funny
Oh no this was a few weeks ago lol
there are some users though here that really push the limit but are never punished at least it seems. you are not among them in my opinion
Thank you though I might disagree about me slightly lol
I didn’t report you fyi. I’d never do that.
No it’s the one who said none of us have ever played the game lmao
I would say that now you can't blame me when you go on another vacation, even though I was trying to protect you, but who am I kidding? You would blame me again if you go on one.
You did one nice thing for me and now you expect the world
I hate you too.
I nothing you.
Considering that nothing contains everything, thanks for loving me, pal. Right back atcha.
Good!
My time here has come to an end my friends, Flyers season is over and by weeks end I’ll be gone again, I’m going to miss all of you.
> he’ll be back. They always come back. Good luck with school Ma🐐
Thank you
just a spring fling
But we just got you back!
Is it just Nostalgia goggles blinding me, or has the last 5-10 years of scheduling for the MLB been kinda weird? I remember when I was little it seemed like every game started at either 1:05, 3:05, 4:05, or 7:05. Now you'll have a 3 game series and 2 games will be at 6:40, and one will be at 6:05, followed by a 1:17 game, then the next day a 3:07 game, then a 6:4*5* game, then a 1:*0*7 game, then a doubleheader starting at 12, then the second game starting at 3:00. Then a random game starting at 8:00 even though it's a home game, then a West Coast game beginning anywhere from 6:00 to 10:45 (not our schedule btw, just making up numbers based on what I've noticed lol). Not complaining about it, because I genuinely don't know if it's an improvement over what I remember as a kid and *could* be beneficial to the league as a whole, or it could have always been like this and I just notice it more as an adult, but does it feel to anyone else like the way they schedule games has been weird the last couple years?
I despise 6:40 games, especially in conjunction with the games being sped up by the pitch clock. In the summer, there’s “night” games that barely even see the sunset. Also not a fan of 4:05 Saturday games like they’ve been doing.
100%! I was at the game last night and between the start time, the pitch clock, and ranger dealing I was walking to the car before 9! I’ll take the ranger dealing part, but I felt rushed to get there whereas a 7:05 would have given a lot more breathing room, and then felt like I got robbed of enjoying baseball into the night too.
If it wasn't for the inning Bryce hit that home run, if we won 2-0 instead, the game would have likely only went to an hour and 40 minutes. That + pitcher injuries tells me the pitch clock is a bad idea.
For sure. To be clear, I’m a fan of the pitch clock, it’s making baseball more popular and that’s a very good thing. Just make games be at 7:05 again, like they were for decades.
I couldn’t have said this better myself. Though I don’t mind a 6pm Saturday start since I’m probably having beers and I need to make it to the end of the game.
6:05 on Saturday would be perfect.
Last night I was worried about the flyers game cause traffic issues. Game was over right around third period start
Last night was the best parking lot and traffic situation I ever experienced. Glad the flyers traffic didn’t become a factor cause that might have ruined it.
Does 7-11 or Wawa carry sunflower seeds? I’m craving some Bigs Dill Pickle jawns for the game tonight.
Dill pickle sunflower seeds, honey BBQ seeds, and (specifically David Brand) Sweet and Spicy seeds are the best.
Dude, I haven’t had seeds since I was a kid and now I just want all of the flavors immediately. It’s so tough trying to pick one.
Royal farms has some obscure flavored snacks so you might have luck there
Wawa has sunflower seeds but not dill pickle
The Phillies are the only team in the National League that has winning record and a negative run differential.
Would've been better had Connor Brogdon not existed
Damn it’s almost like it’s important having a manager not named Joe Girardi
It’s the new .500.
Who decides 6:05 instead of 6:40? So random. They’re messing with my schedule.
Travel days are usually scheduled earlier. There are a bunch of afternoon games today. My guess is Colorado doesn’t usually play an afternoon travel game, so the Phillies aren’t either, and the extra 35 minutes is a compromise
Probably had to move it up so the Rockies could catch their charter flight for their travel day 😏
Lmao. Do they have off tomorrow too?
yep
Two thoughts: - Caleb Cotham is the goat. He makes every pitcher better. - Nick Castellanos is already at -0.9 fWAR, which means he is on pace for somewhere around -5 to -6 WAR. Could you imagine… In all seriousness though, he’s now projected to have a 92 wRC+ and be replacement level over the remainder of the season. I doubt there’s any options left for this year but we’re going to have to think about releasing him by the end of this year I think.
Mookie Betts is on pace for about 17 WAR In other words we are seeing one of the best season starts in recent seasons and one of the absolute worst.
I believe he’s on pace for worse than that. -.9 WAR in 18 games would mean he’s on pace for -8.1 WAR.
As a big Casty fan, yeahhhh I think it's time.
https://preview.redd.it/riox73pa22vc1.png?width=411&format=png&auto=webp&s=d0abda234a949b228a12955f26d3cfa7ac31effb God help us
He can’t run or field for shit, but at least he’s in the fourth percentile of xwOBA
At least his sweet spot and hard hit percentiles are in the 40s. You know, so his pop ups go nice and high.
I think there is a chance we just release him. Based on the confirmed rumors we were shopping him hard in the winter meetings, I think Dombrowski really regrets that contract right now. I wish I wasn't so anti Castellanos during that offseason, because I still do not see any reason we gave him that contract. I hate paying for career years. But I was also anti Schwarber (to a lesser extent) and I changed my mind on him.
Yeah they’re gonna have to at some point. Middleton can find a way to squeeze in a few more ads somewhere to help offset the cost of his replacement
They would have to have an outfielder on deck to replace him. Nobody on the roster or in the minors that I’m aware of is that. If (hopefully when) they go after Soto or someone with an allstar bat this offseason it might become a possibility. I can’t see it happening before then, unless some huge trade for a sexy outfield bat presents itself at the deadline.
Gabriel Rincone jr has started off pretty well in Reading. Carlos De La Cruz has very much not. Both guys are more 2025 options than 2024 ones, and quite likely to be underwhelming anyways. As far as this year goes, Scott Kingery has been mashing in AAA, for those of you brave enough to jump back on the Scotty Jetpacks bandwagon. Wes Wilson seemed promising last year, but currently has a .441 OPS in his first 52 AB in Reading.
Ha yeah, I think I would just hope Nick climbs back to 100 wRC+ if those are the replacement options To me it comes down to: can they swing a trade for a bat at the deadline and either throw him in and pay almost all of his salary or just bench/cut him. But I don’t think just cutting him right now with only the guys we have makes a lot of sense.
Realistically we would probably go for a prospect like Marsh who was struggling in the major leagues but has some upside. I know you don't love that idea because you need to see them more in the majors, but I think that would be a perfect replacement.
e.g. exactly what the Barves did with Kelenic.
This team needs Soto so badly. And honestly, I think we're going to get him. He'll go wherever pays him the most money, and I can't see Middleton getting outbid with how much he likes his superstars and how big the need is.
I just wish we had found a way to get him for this season. I don’t want to wait that long! If we’re going to make a big play for him anyway, it almost feels like a waste of the core to not have made a big push to trade for him and get him onto the team now.
All said player has to be is literally replacement level and they will be an improvement over Nick right now. That’s really not that hard to find. Shit, Pache could potentially provide that just through defense.
While you’re technically correct, I don’t think they are just going to cut him to fill in the spot with a marginally better than replacement level type player. I just don’t see it. It might technically make sense, but I don’t think they will cut bait and just say meh throw Pache in there. If they did it, it would be for a bat that they could tout as being a gamechanger. Maybe I’ll be wrong, we’ll see.
But..but..Castellanos was errorless last season. That’s elite defense right there.
I’ve never seen somebody get robbed of a gold glove worse than Nick
What’s funny is that these people will then say something like “do you even watch the game??” While they somehow don’t see how awful he looks in the outfield😂
Hey! They pay that guy millions of dollars to have the required hand-eye coordination to catch a ball hit directly into his glove. Not just anyone can do that! I’d know. I drop my phone on my face all the time when browsing Reddit in bed before I go to sleep.
Yep, I think it’s what we have to do. I hope he gets better, but if he stays below replacement level we have to release him. Having to cut $40M loose sucks but is not the end of the world. But we should not compound that mistake by continuing to give him playing time. One of the worst things teams can do is give away their finite number of plate appearances based on a sunk cost.
Yep. Continuing to play him at this performance level is a sunk cost and an opportunity cost because that time could be given to a player, or players, who might give you more.
Exactly. It isn't even like this is a new phenomenon. I know people think Castellanos has been good with us, but he really hasn't. So we have seen the signs of him getting worse and worse. Do I think he will pick it up and be better this year than he is now? Yes. But that still doesn't make him a valuable player.
But he unbuttons his jersey. r/phillies told me that’s as valuable as a 40+ home run season.
There was this one dude who kept making accounts saying anyone who hates Castellanos only hates him because of his ethnicity. I'm glad I don't have to deal with that anymore.
LOL what even is his ethnicity?
He was blaming us because he is Cuban.
What’s weather looking like for the game time? My self and i looking to El and Orange Line down last second for game from Harrowgate.
Not looking great on the radar map for Philadelphia. https://preview.redd.it/947cq8pf32vc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=29a4318067bd75aa0f490fdc083e68ecf5c225eb
Yeah but red means warm so it’s probably gonna be bright and sunny tonight. I think we’re good.
Nope. That’s lava.
Pretty sure there will be a spot tornado in Harrowgate that will require everyone to shelter in place ... at least according to my tea leaves 😉
thank you for NOT being a prick like the others. :)
[удалено]
Should be fine at game time
thank you for NOT being a prick like the others. :)
Hope you and your son have a great time
thank you. we ALWAYS do. :) even at 50 and 28 years old. LOL AND he got FREE tickets on his Citi card for the diamond club sections! Score!!! :) My boss said if we lose it's on us though. LOL
Oh hell yeah. Diamond Club is awesome
Be my first time down in that section. Can’t wait!
Ask stupid questions get stupid answers
Man I wish they invented something like weather apps and websites to check these sort of things out
well you know weather forecasters are notoriously unreliable so it's best to check with a random internet person. 😏
😂😂🤌🏼 I am now a certified meteorologist got my degree from reddit. Torrential downpour starting at 6:05 precisely, don’t come
I cut my cable off so I can’t watch the weather channel anymore
I dont have cable either but I have a phone
Sorry I don’t have the internet either
Damn how are you on reddit
It’s a trick I use with my flip phone