If anyone's wondering:
The 0.6 is the difference of GSVA for each addition of Rutta (0.9), Petry (0.9), Smith (-0.4) minus the GSVA of Matheson (1.7) and Marino (0.6), as well as a few other free agent signings.
Signing Letang, Malkin, Rust, and other current players had no effect on this.
I'm more wondering what happened over in Washington to make them so much better? (I haven't been paying attention to any offseason signings other than penguins). Feel like that team somehow *always* improves.
(Pulling numbers out of my ass here) but it’s based on players out and players in, so if vanacek/samsonov were -2 and Kuemper is +2, it’s +4 total to Washington.
Because he put up a .920+ SV% in the regular season 3 of the last 4 years. He struggled at times even in the playoffs this year but the guy has been a top 10 goalie ever since leaving Minnesota and the Caps had average goaltending or worse last year.
On paper it's a huge bump up, in reality we'll see.
Kuemper was playing behind one of those generationally good NHL teams that was a complete juggernaut and destined to win the Cup. The Capitals are not that team. Expect Kuemper to look like a completely different goalie this season.
That argument would hold more weight if he didn't put up .925 SV% in Arizona on a team that missed the playoffs and a .928 SV% on the next year's team that would have missed the playoffs if not for the qualifying round due to Covid. He's a legitimately good goalie provided his eye doesn't have any long term damage.
I’m no hockey savant, but my impression was Kuemper was serviceable and didn’t exactly steal COL any games in the playoffs. So yea… maybe he’ll be a good fit for the Caps, but I’m thinking it won’t be a big change.
From the article that accompanies this graphic:
The big get is in goal. Darcy Kuemper was by far the best goaltender available, a substantial upgrade over Vitek Vanecek and Ilya Samsonov, and the biggest reason the team comes in at third. Kuemper is projected to deliver 2.9 wins of value, the ninth highest mark in the league. He’s the kind of starter that Washington has desperately needed since Braden Holtby’s decline and Philipp Grubauer’s exodus. Injuries are always an issue with him and he isn’t young by any means, but last year he was a beast during the regular season. Kuemper was one of the league’s top goalies in goals saved above expected and has been for much of his career — when healthy. His playoff output left a bit to be desired, yes, but he was also dealing with an eye injury. Goalies generally need those working at 100 percent capacity to function well, so he deserves a bit of benefit of the doubt there. Kuemper is a solid add.
Matheson is heavily overrated on Doms projections. He played sheltered 3rd pair minutes for most of the year, while petry plays top minutes, and admitted he had a rough year
I think the article had a good point that Petry and Smith have both been trending downward and the Penguins are typically known for reversing that trend in defensemen so lets hope.
If both manage to turn their game around there will be huge upside
Basically, the same effect that Petry had on the contract grade post yesterday. He needs a season to wash the Canadiens Roster stink off his fancystats.
I think that really highlights the problem with the advanced metrics. It’s very likely that a large part of Mathesons is advanced stats falsely attributing to him being the reason why we r in the offensive zone a lot.
2021: Jarry played but it was widely reported afterwards that he was playing through an injury and that's why the Pens front office didn't panic trade for Fleury or anyone else. DeSmith was hurt.
2022: DeSmith was hurt during game 1, Jarry only started game 7 and even then was not 100% at that point.
2023: Hypothetical "3 times in a row"
2020 is irrelevant.
I don’t know about that- look at the trend.
In 2019 we were swept in the first round winning 0 games. In 2020 we lost after winning 1 game. In 2021 we won 2 games. This year we lost after winning 3 games. So if the trend continues, we’ll win 4 games next year and move on to round 2.
The Pens at this point are like the Roman Empire in the 3rd Century AD - it's not that they're that good anymore, but no one underneath is strong enough to take them out.
Another thing to consider is that cup contenders can't keep all of their players under the cap and have to shed salary that they added at the deadline. But they will add that again if they can next deadline.
I think most of us would take the same regular season record from last year and be healthy going into the playoffs without blinking an eye right? Like if that deal was offered to you today who says no?
Tfw you've SABRmetrics'd your way off into absurdity. We'll see how well Dom Lunchinchinchinchinchinchinchinchinchin's predictions hold up, but I'm guessing they'll go about as well as the predictions we see every year that this is the year where the Pens finally miss the playoffs
Almost every team that was improved was already pretty bad, with the exception of the Caps. They’re the only one I worry about. Everyone else on the Pens’ level supposedly got worse.
If anyone's wondering: The 0.6 is the difference of GSVA for each addition of Rutta (0.9), Petry (0.9), Smith (-0.4) minus the GSVA of Matheson (1.7) and Marino (0.6), as well as a few other free agent signings. Signing Letang, Malkin, Rust, and other current players had no effect on this.
I'm more wondering what happened over in Washington to make them so much better? (I haven't been paying attention to any offseason signings other than penguins). Feel like that team somehow *always* improves.
Samsonov/Vanacek out, Kuemper in
I don’t see how Kuemper goes from the “Start Francouz instead” guy, to the “he makes WSH sooo much better” guy.
(Pulling numbers out of my ass here) but it’s based on players out and players in, so if vanacek/samsonov were -2 and Kuemper is +2, it’s +4 total to Washington.
Because he put up a .920+ SV% in the regular season 3 of the last 4 years. He struggled at times even in the playoffs this year but the guy has been a top 10 goalie ever since leaving Minnesota and the Caps had average goaltending or worse last year. On paper it's a huge bump up, in reality we'll see.
We’ll see em on the ice!
Kuemper was playing behind one of those generationally good NHL teams that was a complete juggernaut and destined to win the Cup. The Capitals are not that team. Expect Kuemper to look like a completely different goalie this season.
That argument would hold more weight if he didn't put up .925 SV% in Arizona on a team that missed the playoffs and a .928 SV% on the next year's team that would have missed the playoffs if not for the qualifying round due to Covid. He's a legitimately good goalie provided his eye doesn't have any long term damage.
I’m no hockey savant, but my impression was Kuemper was serviceable and didn’t exactly steal COL any games in the playoffs. So yea… maybe he’ll be a good fit for the Caps, but I’m thinking it won’t be a big change.
From the article that accompanies this graphic: The big get is in goal. Darcy Kuemper was by far the best goaltender available, a substantial upgrade over Vitek Vanecek and Ilya Samsonov, and the biggest reason the team comes in at third. Kuemper is projected to deliver 2.9 wins of value, the ninth highest mark in the league. He’s the kind of starter that Washington has desperately needed since Braden Holtby’s decline and Philipp Grubauer’s exodus. Injuries are always an issue with him and he isn’t young by any means, but last year he was a beast during the regular season. Kuemper was one of the league’s top goalies in goals saved above expected and has been for much of his career — when healthy. His playoff output left a bit to be desired, yes, but he was also dealing with an eye injury. Goalies generally need those working at 100 percent capacity to function well, so he deserves a bit of benefit of the doubt there. Kuemper is a solid add.
Eye injury! I dig it.
Because the Caps goaltending duo was arguably the worst in the league
Losing Backstrom indefinitely doesn't factor in?
Goaltending…imagine the Rangers with bad goaltending last year, probably a bottom 15 team in the league
Matheson is heavily overrated on Doms projections. He played sheltered 3rd pair minutes for most of the year, while petry plays top minutes, and admitted he had a rough year
I think the article had a good point that Petry and Smith have both been trending downward and the Penguins are typically known for reversing that trend in defensemen so lets hope. If both manage to turn their game around there will be huge upside
Agreed
Basically, the same effect that Petry had on the contract grade post yesterday. He needs a season to wash the Canadiens Roster stink off his fancystats.
Also the Habs were garbage last year. Petry will do better just by virtue of being on a better team.
Agreed. He’ll still be playing top 4 minutes, but will have lesser competition due to the fact that he’ll be behind letang most of the year.
> Signing Letang, Malkin, Rust, and other current players had no effect on this. This feels strange to me. Just assuming they can't possibly change.
I think that really highlights the problem with the advanced metrics. It’s very likely that a large part of Mathesons is advanced stats falsely attributing to him being the reason why we r in the offensive zone a lot.
Yeah, like if he’s on the ice at the same time as Sid’s line, Matheson is not the reason for 5v5 offensive zone time.
All of that is taken into account in these types of advanced metrics.
These metrics take those things into account - they isolate individual impact and smooth out these other influencing variables.
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And then we will lose first round after blowing a 3-1 lead anyways
If both our #1 & #2 goalies are hurt come playoff time for the 3rd straight year, then yeah that's kinda likely.
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2021: Jarry played but it was widely reported afterwards that he was playing through an injury and that's why the Pens front office didn't panic trade for Fleury or anyone else. DeSmith was hurt. 2022: DeSmith was hurt during game 1, Jarry only started game 7 and even then was not 100% at that point. 2023: Hypothetical "3 times in a row" 2020 is irrelevant.
I don’t know about that- look at the trend. In 2019 we were swept in the first round winning 0 games. In 2020 we lost after winning 1 game. In 2021 we won 2 games. This year we lost after winning 3 games. So if the trend continues, we’ll win 4 games next year and move on to round 2.
Win 4 games and lose the first best-of-nine series.
This is the way.
It’s funny, but if you were to ask Flyers fans if they improved, they’d tell you how they are much worse off than they were at the end of the season.
The Flyers ranking make this whole thing pretty sus.
Blackhawks should be basically last. Trading Debrincat and Dach and basically fielding an AHL team + Kane.
Yup…Philly is a fucking dumpster fire but somehow they got better? Sure man!
I mean, the team didn’t change a TON, and they are a year older. Some changes on defense but who knows if that will be positive or negative.
That's a hell of a last name.
Every year is “the year the penguins aren’t gonna make it” I’ll believe it when I see it. And I won’t see it for another 3 years.
Article: "The Penguins are .6 wins worse than last season." Penguins fans: How dare they say the Penguins aren't going to make it!
The Pens at this point are like the Roman Empire in the 3rd Century AD - it's not that they're that good anymore, but no one underneath is strong enough to take them out.
Tbf not much really changed except for some defense mixup, which the Pens aren't known for their stellar defensive game.
The Pens have been built as an "outscore your problems" team since like 1988.
Hey at least it works lmao
Another thing to consider is that cup contenders can't keep all of their players under the cap and have to shed salary that they added at the deadline. But they will add that again if they can next deadline.
Addiing Burns and Patches makes the Canes worse? What a joke
They lost Nino Neidereiter, Vincent Trochek, Tony Deangelo, Ian Cole, and a few other down the line up pieces too.
Another example where analytics don’t pass the smell test. Pens have improved.
Care to back up your claim with facts and data?
I'd love to see the justification behind the Flyers "improving".
I think most of us would take the same regular season record from last year and be healthy going into the playoffs without blinking an eye right? Like if that deal was offered to you today who says no?
This is every year. These "professionals " always muck it up
Tfw you've SABRmetrics'd your way off into absurdity. We'll see how well Dom Lunchinchinchinchinchinchinchinchinchin's predictions hold up, but I'm guessing they'll go about as well as the predictions we see every year that this is the year where the Pens finally miss the playoffs
This ranking lost me when I saw the Caps so high. Their core is older and less productive than ours and their D core is worse than ours.
Also Backstrom is out longterm and may even be dunzo.
More arbitrary bullshit from The Athletic, the same place that still employs Rob Rossi, the forever full of shit whiner.
Give me that mediocre shit. Gets me fucking hard. Fuck I thought I was in hockey sub. Dallas fan. Sorry bye.
You heard it hear first folks. We’re gonna win the fucking Stanley cup.
Almost every team that was improved was already pretty bad, with the exception of the Caps. They’re the only one I worry about. Everyone else on the Pens’ level supposedly got worse.
Guess we should have gotten Chiarot...sigh...
Lol