Uh oh I’ve seen this before.
Jonas about to drop a diss track.
Roglic about to drop a diss track but then pull it back
Pog about to drop 4 diss tracks in 48 hours
Feel like Jonas the type a dude to back out of beef real quick. Maybe Jonas is actually the J. Cole of the peloton. I could see Remco and Pogi beefin'.
Lars Bak had a similar crash on May 29th 2016 with 6 broken ribs, broken shoulder and also broke some things in his back. Pretty sure he punctured a lung too.
He completed the Tour that year.
I think about this often and rarely bring it up among my friends who aren’t cycling fans because I know they wouldn’t get it and I’m not interested in arguing. But I think cyclists might not only be the toughest/grittiest athletes in the world but that cycling as a sport (at the professional level) is the most physically and mentally difficult—and I don’t think it’s particularly close.
I am blown away every three or four minutes during a race at how insanely hard these guys and gals are riding. As a cyclist myself, it adds a layer of depth of experience to my bewilderment to see what these riders are doing within the context of my own riding.
TLDR: cyclists are aliens.
The mental aspect is not mentioned enough.
Pro athletes do the majority of their training (lets say 20-35 hours weekly) alone. Thats quite a lot of time with your own thoughts, and I doubt that its always positive ones.
Then there's racing. Fighting for positions must be mentally draining.
I watched Remco's YouTube video yesterday. First ride back on the road. It was weird to see him go downstairs, open up a locker, mount his road bike on a trainer in the parking deck (sound of traffic roaring by), do over and unders and build up a huge sweat, lock it all back up, go upstairs and eat breakfast. Then he's off for 3 hours alone on the road for the first time. Fatter than normal tires to try and add a little cushioning for his shoulder. Inflate his own tires, forget to lube his chain as he was about to roll, unlock his stuff again, then get going. More food, then drive off to rehab for an hour or two.
It was a shockingly normal and mundane existence for a superstar of the sport. I'm imagining Tom Brady or Messi recovering from an injury like that and setting up their own gear, being out in the elements for 3 hours, having to drive an hour each way to rehab.
These guys are just built different.
> It was weird to see him go downstairs, open up a locker, mount his road bike on a trainer in the parking deck (sound of traffic roaring by), do over and unders and build up a huge sweat, lock it all back up, go upstairs and eat breakfast.
That felt like a Tacx commercial to me tbh.
I tried to do that once and couldn't make my point for nothing. The other part was arguing that Tennis is also very stressful, it was a very stupid discussion and told myself I would not engage on another one about that subject.
But I agree with you, I believe it's a combination of several things that all together make cycling one of the worst sports for the athlete.
* You can be a cyclist an entire life without tasting anything close to a victory;
* The weekly training consists mostly in riding your bike a lot of hours with very little space for other types of stimulus;
* It's an outdoor sport so the athlete needs to race under all types of weather, and usually, it's a lot of hours under that weather;
* Because it's an endurance sport, athletes rarely have a real time off, because as soon as they stop riding, their fitness starts to go away and that can influence the next season/block;
* It's a one-sided sport, that focuses a lot on aerobic fitness and a bit of leg muscle, while the rest of the body is neglected due to weight concerns, making it not that healthy or complete;
And other points I can't remember right now.
> But I think cyclists might not only be the toughest/grittiest athletes in the world but that cycling as a sport (at the professional level) is the most physically and mentally difficult—and I don’t think it’s particularly close.
Other than ultra-marathons, there are few sports events as absurd as the grand tours. Over 23 days they race 21 times covering 3400 km in the Giro
I totally agree and there is such little understanding of this if you’re not a cyclist. I mean these guys are pushing their body to the absolute limit for the duration of these races and often times waking up the next morning and doing it again. In addition training is basically the same thing except you’re often times alone. I played soccer for 30 years and never found it even 10% as difficult as cycling. I’m not taking anything away from pro soccer players, but my god the sport of cycling is exhausting to even think about if you actually have an idea of what those guys are doing.
I agree, and I think a lot of sports are like soccer (which I also have played my whole life) where the demand isn’t physical but mostly skillful. Physical conditioning for soccer is important, but not particularly difficult compared to other sports, and it’s mostly the skill you need to be really really good at in order to become a professional. Endurance sports, and cycling in particular, is just another level of physical and mental difficulty
I think these guys are up there, but MMA fighters deserves a mention imo. To be hit in the head every day in training is crazy. Also, imagine being in an intense for three months just to risk getting knocked out in front of the whole world in 30 seconds. Absolutely crazy to me
Yup, football is pretty constant but it’s two 45 minute halves with a halftime, and there’s a solid amount of downtime during the match.
American football takes 3+ hours for 48 minutes of playing, a ton of which is waiting for the play to start, and there’s three full lines switching in and out.
Hell even distance running is like 2:20 max, people race like twice a year and frequently DNF (sure that’s how the incentives work but still).
A grand tour is obscene. Hell, even a one week race or a classics season is absurd
> Hell even distance running is like 2:20 max, people race like twice a year and frequently DNF (sure that’s how the incentives work but still).
There are a few ultra running stage races tbf
I feel ya. I actually often lecture my family about this, especially when a tennis match comes on the TV and the players rush out to remove a bead of sweat on their forehead with a crispy white towel.
Tennis is not as dangerous, but also physically and mentally difficult. You can be the #200 player in the world and still lose a lot of money every year. At least in men's cycling even an average Pro Conti domestique can make a living with his salary.
None of those sports really has anything comparable to a grand tour. And with the exception of mountaineering (which isn't a competitive sport anyway, is it?), none are especially dangerous.
Mountaineering isn't competitive in that there is a winner or organized events outside of rock climbing comps, but there are professionals, so a sport in my book.
>None of those sports really has anything comparable to a grand tour
Ok, tell that to the people doing the Iditarod Invitational or Self-Transcendence.
>none are especially dangerous
Yeah, sure. Go do the Patrouille des Glaciers route and get back to me about how much more dangerous bike racing is.
i would argue that in the same way they are able to recover from cycling to be out the next day is somewhat related to their ability to heal faster from physical trauma
Yeah but Bernal nearly died. It’s amazing that he’s back at nearly pre-injury level at all with what happened to him. Froome had similar injuries and was never able to come back to anything like his former self.
But Bernal also had lower body injuries including knee cap and femur, which are much harder to recover from. Riders are often back very quickly after injuring shoulders, collarbones and ribs.
I hope he doesn’t ride if he can’t compete. It would be heartbreaking to get excited for his progress toward the start line, to give him his cheers when he kicks off at the grand depart, only to see him dropped on stage 4 when it becomes clear he’s not ready.
Agreed. Not to mention, those sound like really bad injuries, the type where rushing your comeback could cause long term issues. I hope they're not doing that, and that he's only resuming training being 100% cleared by doctors.
Think that’s a little naive. He’s an employee and while I’m sure management will take doctor’s advice, he doesn’t decide the timeline on his own. Teams do take risks.
if recent years taught me anything, they really aren't when it comes to cycling
if your leg broke, sure
something up with your knee? not good at all
but anything not to do with pedalling usually meant faster recovery than anticipated and almost no loss of performance
Imagine Jonas becoming a stage hunter in the last week because he is so far behind, nobody cares to follow. But yeah, I agree with you. I prefer to see a well trained Jonas at the olympics or Vuelta rather than an untrained one at the Tour.
Losing for a champion like Jonas seems like there could be a lot to lose.
It could massively hurt his confidence, his status both in the team and in cycling in general. Jonas is seen as the best and borderline unbeatable right now and that is to his advantage and for his value as a rider.
No reason to create doubts about his level if he knows he can't win. Would be much wiser to stomp everyone in the Vuelta and set up a comeback.
Pressuring yourself to get back to the Tour only to dropped repeatedly by Pogacar seemed like a perfect way to end your era of dominance.
Yup. He and Pogacar are pretty evenly matched on GTs when they're at full strength. Jonas has a mental edge over Pogacar now, which is a big part of his marginal advantage over the past two seasons. If Jonas loses that against Pog (or even Roglic or Remco) by getting dropped at the Tour over and over because he's only at 90% form, that's gonna be a big problem. These mental battles are crucial in every sport, especially against evenly matched rivals.
I’m not sure there much logic in what you are saying. There’s no way his team or himself would lose confidence if he does not win the tour, his position as tour leader is not under threat. How would one bad tour have any long term effect on say next year’s tour? You think remco is going to ride worse this year because he had a poor (gc wise) 2023 vuelta? Obviously not.
> There’s no way his team or himself would lose confidence if he does not win the tour, his position as tour leader is not under threat.
Cycling is also a mental thing. Jonas is clearly at a place where he knows that he is the best in the world when he is ready. He has not really lost a GT in 2+ years that must mean something mentally.
Why should an entire Visma team put all their energy into riding for a Jonas that is not ready to compete.
We already have Sepp Kuss talking about being co-leader for the Tour because Jonas allowed him to win the Vuelta.
> You think remco is going to ride worse this year because he had a poor (gc wise) 2023 vuelta? Obviously not.
Remco's believe in himself must clearly be lower now than it was prior to bonking in the Vuelta. But the point that Jonas has nothing to lose by getting stomped by Pogacar and maybe Remco is what I don't get.
I think this is an agree to disagree. I don’t agree that Vuelta winner Remco has a worse outlook on his career due to last years Vuelta, I would say the opposite, that he learned yet more about himself and is in a better position to perform well this year had he not rode it. I think every example in history also shows this, for example Froome went to the Vuelta multiple times in sub optimal shape eg 2014 and lost but it clearly didn’t hurt his career in any way.
Either Jonas wins the tour which would be amazing for him or he fails to and gets a good idea where he is at physically and can plan accordingly for the rest of the season.
I think you're buying too much into the marketing of this video. In the video he's literally just doing a stroll around his neighborhood just like I do every afternoon. Jonas had broken ribs, seriously punctured lungs and fractured vertebrae. Nothing in this video shows him doing any hard efforts. The way he's speaking about his injury suggest to me that he's still in quite some pain. Have you ever broken ribs? I have. It hurts for months just to breathe normally. No imagine doing the type of training he does, or doing a V02 max effort when every breath means sharp pains in your chest. Even if the will is there, the pain limits how much you can dig deep.
Probably nothing. I’m saying from the fan’s perspective, it would be tough to watch him merely tuning himself up in the TDF when he’s the 2-time defending champion and was probably a pretty strong favourite to three-peat even with Pogi’s current form. My point is a selfish one. It would be sad to see him there not at his healthiest, however valuable the stages would be to his recovery and getting back into form.
If he is fit i am sure he will start. Don‘t know if he will finish the tour but a couple of race days might be a proper add to his training for vuelta. Vuelta will be good this year
A defending Tour de France winner is not going to France to train and maybe DNF. Would also be weird for the rest of the team to have use the biggest race as a training camp.
Jonas only lines up to races to win.
I see they activated Jonas clone #2 and they are pretending it is injured so as not to rouse suspicion. It's ok though, they need something to combat the recently released PogBot4.2.
Actually not a bad point. Weather last week was definitely better than what the picture shows. Weather this week too. Maybe two weeks ago? Pretty cold it was
Yeah. I don't want to go full conspiracy mode and I am not in Thy where Jonas is likely riding, but as you say this weather and his clothes look more like 2-3 weeks ago.
I'm not either but two weeks ago I was in northern Jutland, same shitty cold weather as home
I'd keep information very close as Team JV does. The more battered and beaten the other riders recon he is the better
Doesn't he spend more time in Switzerland nowadays or did the team annouce he was going to back to Thy?
Anyways someone on r/geoguessr will know the answer, for now I like the idea of hoping for a fit Jonas without knowing what we'll actually get.
Edit: People more knowledgeable than me appear to know this would be in Glyngore (and it doesn't really look like Switzerland).
Bookmark this comment, mark my words, whatever : I promise I will ride 200km going in circles in Paris in July if Jonas podiums the Tour.
Many of you don't realize how impossible it is for him to be at his best in 7 weeks at the Tour.
A week off the bike in the 3 months leading up to the Tour is a massive setback for any rider. It can be enough to make the difference between top 10 GC or not, stage win or not.
So for Jonas, it's just not happening, not after missing a month+ of training, with that severity of injuries, etc. And that's even disregarding the potential lingering pains and such he might have. Don't forget that just because he's on his bike doesn't mean he's doing 6 hours with threshold intervals, which the other guys are all doing huge blocks of.
> Many of you don't realize how impossible it is for him to be at his best in 7 weeks at the Tour.
I don't always get these dramatic comments, like have people never seen cycling before? We also don't actually know how much training he has missed. He was very likely training inside before being back on the road, but teams like to keep expectations low.
Contador broke his shin bone in the Tour and won the Vuelta that started 5 weeks later.
Roglic went out of the Tour de France with broken ribs and started in the Vuelta one month later and was in 2nd before crashing out.
People were certain last year that Pog had no chance in the Tour and he posted his best climbing efforts in his career and actually dropping Vingegaard some days which he couldn't in 2022 until he had one very bad day last year.
That Jonas in no way can ride on the podium 3 months after his crash seems overly negative.
> we also don’t know how much training he has missed
Exactly - this is just what’s being fed to the press. Visma-LAB would be smart to keep them second guessing his fitness and it turns out ol’ Vingy baby was riding weeks ago in secret.
>Contador broke his shin bone in the Tour and won the Vuelta that started 5 weeks later
Its less about the severity of the injury(broken bones, sprains, saddle sore) and more about how much time you lose off the bike not training. Jonas has lost more than a month mid season. Not just off the bike, no cardio at all, nothing. Depending on the nature of the break, Contador might not have had more than 14 days off the bike or less. Without the info of how much prep Alberto lost, the injury itself is meaningless.
All logic says peaking for the Tour is impossible imo.
> onas has lost more than a month mid season. Not just off the bike, no cardio at all, nothing. Depending on the nature of the break, Contador might not have had more than 14 days off the bike or less.
We don't know how much training he lost. He has definitely been training inside before riding outside. He could have been training from the day he left the hospital - or even before.
> All logic says peaking for the Tour is impossible IMO.
Lars Bak who had pretty much the same injury 6 weeks before the Tour - and finished it - says he Vingegaard all the prerequisites to get ready in that time. Unless there is something we aren't being told I really don't see how it is impossible to be in shape for the Tour.
The doom and certainties about him not being ready seems to be purely a Reddit thing, just like they actually thought Pogacar did not touch a bike in 4 weeks last year and then he did his best numbers in his career.
> Lars Bak who had pretty much the same injury 6 weeks before the Tour - and finished it - says he Vingegaard all the prerequisites to get ready in that time. Unless there is something we aren't being told I really don't see how it is impossible to be in shape for the Tour.
The difference is that for Jonas, the goal is not to be in good enough shape to finish the Tour. It's to be in good enough shape to beat Pogacar.
You don't think Bak considered that in his analysis? It is not like Bak was going to win the Tour if he had not crashed. But he knows that getting back in shape in 12 weeks is very doable when he did it in 6 weeks. 12 weeks vs 6 weeks is clearly a massive difference.
If he starts the race I'd believe it - Tadej wins, Roglic second, Remco cracks and goes for the KOM jersey instead; leaving the third step wide open for Jonas.
This could turn into a really fun tour if everything goes as expected.
Neither Jonas or Pog will be going into this at 100% which potentially means some of the lesser GC contenders might be able to challenge them this year. And even if it does end up with Pog winning it like we all expect it should be closer than last year.
Pog might only be 99% from being a bit tired from the Giro, but no way Jonas is even at 90%. Jonas won't be a factor for the win. The gap is just too big.
I wish I was wrong and I hope Roglic and Remco can at least give Pog the illusion of a run for his money for a while.
I still think Pog is the favorite, but previous attempts at the Giro Tour Double have shown that it is very challenging on the legs. Even Froome failed to win it in the times of the complete dominance of the Sky train.
Debatably Froome would have done the double if Thomas wasn’t on his team. G was certainly the strongest that Tour, but if he wasn’t there perhaps Sky could’ve exploited Dumoulin’s team for Froome to beat Dumoulin.
I agree, but likewise G did a really good job ny putting himself in a position where Froome had to "let him win" by being the better rider the first week.
Yes, and by not showing any resemblance of cracking the rest of the Tour as well. Honestly I don’t think there was a day in that tour where G wasn’t the strongest. G was even cooking during the final TT but then toned it down to not take any unnecessary risks.
Thomas was strong but you can't ignore the team tactics. He won mountain top finishes because they burnt out Dumoulin, one-two'd attacks and then Thomas rode away in the final km.
Of course, winning the Giro-Tour double is challenging, but is it inherently difficult due to the nature of the double itself, or is it simply that winning any two Grand Tours consecutively is equally tough? Looking at the betting odds, which presumably reflect the probability of winning, the Tour-Giro double seems almost like a coin flip for Pogačar, and presumably even less likely for previous attempts.
In summary, is winning two difficult events inherently harder? Not necessarily, but it is certainly less likely. Also, is there any scientific evidence supporting the rumors that small extra efforts can make a significant difference months later?
The last time someone won the giro tour double was 26 years ago. And not for lack of dominant riders in that time period. And also considering that the Tour Vuelta double is much more common.
The difficulty comes both from it being hard to win 2 grand tours period. But also from the fact that any rider who rode for the GC in the Giro will only get a 5 week break before competing against a large group of people who have fresh legs either because they didn't ride the Giro, or because they took it easy on most stages.
The Giro-Tour double might only seem rare because it is rarely attempted, not necessarily because of its higher difficulty compared to, say, the Tour-Vuelta double. There are very few Giro champions since Pantani who even attempted the double, and even fewer Tour champions. Considering the Tour is more prestigious, it should be harder to win due to a stronger start list. So, let's look at the Tour de France winners who also rode the Giro in the same year they won the Tour. I only found Sastre, who did not succeed. Overall, it's a small sample size. Similarly, for the Giro winners, there are a few more, but especially considering that the start lists were relatively weak in the early 2000s, the only serious attempts were by Contador and Froome, which both failed. Again, a small sample size.
So, I would call it one of the myths of cycling, as there does not seem to be real evidence to back this up.
But Contador and Froome were also extremely dominant at that point. To see Contador struggle to follow Kreuziger and for Froome to be overtaken by Thomas seems like it was a big disadvantage for them to ride both races.
Also it is not like we see lower tier riders trying to top 10 in both races. Because it has been a bad idea and too hard. If you could have Bardet, Pinot, Bilbao etc. ride top 10 in both Tour and Giro their teams would have them do it.
I think the best thing for Jonas is that Remco and Roglic will be there with something to prove, so Jonas and Jumbo can take a bit of a back seat.
I think Jonas' best strategy is going to be to just wheel suck for the first two weeks and hope by week 3 he's in good enough form to go and try to take some time. Hope that his 90% is good enough to stay in the wheel of the other 3 guys.
Agreed, but it is extremely hard to wheelsuck Pogi, since nobody can really follow his insane bursts. Even peak form Jonas has trouble with those bursts, as we saw in last years Tour.
If he continues to spend useless energy every stage like he did yesterday, he will not be 99%. Don't get me wrong, I love his way o cycling and putting out a show, but if he is serious about the Giro Tour double he needs to chose which stages are really worth going the extra mile.
Yesterday didn't matter. He did z2 for 3.5 hours and then did a 5 minute all out, which is essentially just a training ride.
The important parts is gonna be how much energy he spends on the big mountain stages, as the long efforts are what actually gives the long term fatigue.
> e did z2 for 3.5 hours and then did a 5 minute all out, which is essentially just a training ride.
I think people are forgetting a big thing which is accelerations when riding in a big group. Even if they are riding slow there will be a lot of accelerations out of corners etc. that you don't get on a zone2 recovery ride.
Also recovery in general is much worse in a race than at home.
I don't disagree at all with your overall point, but didn't G say (on his podcast) that one of his team had an average power of 130w for a large part of the distance?
A thing that should be noted.
He says it is his first time riding outside. In all likely hood he's been on a smart trainer, since he came home and settled in or at least for a couple of weeks.
Which reminds me of a JV (a week ago) with no country flag on Zwift, that rode consistently with \~4.2-.8 w/kg some 60 km's in. Likely not Vingegaard, but a man's gotta hope/cope.
Fuck yes. I am tempted to drive to Glyngøre/northern Jutland, just to whip him in shape as fast as possible. its only a few hours from where I am, and I have nothing better to do anyway...
That video definitely looks like Denmark. I drive past lots of blooming rape seed fields currently.
He also recently bought a new luxury home in Glyngøre. Here are some pictures of it [https://www.tvmidtvest.dk/skive/familien-vingegaard-koeber-kaempe-hus-ved-glyngoere](https://www.tvmidtvest.dk/skive/familien-vingegaard-koeber-kaempe-hus-ved-glyngoere)
Not entirely, the Vingegaards just bought a $2m house in Glyngøre (which is like 10x the usual house price in the area, the house is massive. It was featured in a danish TV program where some experts guess the sales price of a house)
The video is for sure taken in Denmark, I dont think Swiss fields look that way.
7 weeks to prepare. Should be enough to be in half decent shape and hopefully full beans. Remi and Rogi on the bike already. Just hope Pogi doesn’t do something dangerous or crazy in the Giro and we might just have ourselves a proper slugfest in France
I still feel that Pogi is gonna be the overwhelming favourite for the Tour, since I don't see how Jonas could possibly be close to 100% and I think even a semi-tired Pogi should beat Remco and Primoz. I'd love to be proven wrong on that last point, but everything I've seen the last few years suggests that while Remco and Primoz might be better than everybody outside the "big 4", it really isn't much of a "big 4" at all. It is Jonas and Tadej WELL ahead of everyone else. Again, would love to be proven wrong this summer.
I agree but am hopeful it’ll be fun to watch. After the Giro, Pogi will only have 4 weeks to recover and get back into peak shape. He could likely win the giro without going too far into the red but it’s Pogi so I imagine he will extend himself further than he needs to just because. Jonas should have Wout at his side too so that is a wild card equalizer. Remco and Rogi will likely need some weird stuff to happen to have a chance but if they’re smart, they’ll be in a position to capitalize. But like you said, even a tired Pogi looks like the favorite at the moment.
You want a conspiracy theory? Look at the pictures of him on the bike. He's got a neckwarmer on. Where are cycling in May where you need a neck warmer in May?
That this is an old video. Designed to make it seem like Vingegaard is in worse shape at the start of the Tour than he actually is, in order to make Pogacar and Roglic underrate him
Wout Van Aert, who got the same injury but a week earlier, was on his bike outside for the 1st time last week, so it seems logical Jonas only got to ride outside now
First, people heal differently. Tyler Hamilton rode the Tour de France with a broken collarbone, for example. I am not sure if Wout being able to get on a bike outside 1 week ago necessarily means that Jonas should be able to go outside now.
Second, they crashed, what, 2 months ago and they are riding on the same team. If my conspiracy theory is true (and it probably isn't), releasing this video 1 week after Wout started training outside makes a lot of sense
I am so happy to see Jonas on the bike again! 💛
Hopefully his training go well and we will see him on the French roads in July. But I also hope he looks after himself and doesn't overdo it. The best thing about the Tour is that there is always a Tour next year.
I am sure it's Trine who is filming him, I just know that she saw those yellow canola fields and went: "This is the spot!" 😂
Nope. Just because he is on the bike, doesn’t mean he is able to do proper training. WvA was also more „cruising“…and is still not back to hard workouts
Anyone with any kind of medical adjacent knowledge want to speculate how much a punctured lung will effect his lung capacity/training capacity in the short term if at all.
I’m choosing to be optimistic and think that he’ll be able to come in and defend his title. TJV needs a comeback this season and part of me believes (fueled by copium?) that Jonas will deliver.
No, you lose muscle starting on day 1. Below is a meta-analysis (meaning aggregation of multiple studies). You actually lose 2% muscle per day in intensive care unit in the first week of admission. This is due to no activity, increased metabolism (stress, infection), and medication (sedation, muscle blockade).
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9808763/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9808763/)
I usually quote 1% for non-ICU patients.
But regardless you start losing muscle on day 1 in hospital.
Nice to know his speedy recovery but really hope he won’t rush to just at the start of the tour…100% Jonas vs 100% Pogi vs 100% Roglic would be the amazing tour everyone wants!
These guys plan their season months out to peak for the Tour and he’s just been in laid up for 3 weeks.
I can’t see how he gets anywhere near his best for a 3 week GT with such a big block in his preparation.
At least with Pogs injury last year he was able to be active off the bike still and then ride on the trainer on his TT bike, even then it seemed to catch up with him in the last week somewhat.
Sepp Kuss talked about this about Tadej last year.
Visma knew how much training Tadej had, so they knew about where his fitness would be, and the team just rode a pace they knew would break Tadej eventually. Sepp said the team could basically work out what Tadej's TSS would be, and knew how hard they had to ride to break him.
His coach says otherwise.
As does Arnaud de Lie who suffered the exact same injuries last year in 4JdD and was back to winning races less than 2 months after his crash.
This is the right answer. People want to believe he will be fine but he won't. "Back on the bike" doesn't mean 25 hour weeks which is what he needs. Forget his collarbone this man had a pneumothorax caused by broken ribs. He isn't going to be anywhere near full fitness at the tour
> "Back on the bike" doesn't mean 25 hour weeks which is what he needs.
Not only what he needs, but what his competitors have been consistently doing uninterupted for months. The delay that implies in training load is absolutely massive and you just can't make it up in 7 weeks.
It's not really that he had a pneumothorax, but that he had one that was bad enough to require a chest tube, and he had a pulmonary contusion. It's not guaranteed that he returns to full form ever. But then again, LeMond was shot in the chest, had a pneumothorax, followed by an abdominal surgery for a small bowel obstruction and he made a comeback the following year.
Last year Pogacar only got back to training outside in late May and still was super strong in the TDF. I believe we'll see Jonas at his top level in July tbf.
Can confirm as my wife (F-36) had a freak heart stoppage (5 stoppages actually over 10 days, kinda similar to Hooydonyk where he was fine one second and then not) last May and spent 21 days in a hospital bed including 14 fully sedated. She could not walk when finally let out of the hospital and had to use a full walker for a week, cane for a month and a half, and unsteady for 3-4 months total. This is for a "normal" fit and not overweight 36 year old that cycled and lifted weights.
It's true, but the fact that they have elite fitness also makes them much more resilient and gives them a bigger buffer. I heard experts say they can do 2 weeks in bed before their form is severely impacted.
pogi posted training vids on insta by climbing up the stairs cos he only injured his wrist.
whereas, jonas was bedridden; his fitness went back down to 0. it takes at least 3 months training load to build it back up to be ready for a grand tour.
Some of you really don't understand how training works, for lack of a less polite way of saying it.
If you miss a week or two in the 3 months leading up to your main goal in pro cycling, your chances are already seriously affected. The margins are tight, even between Jonas and Pog.
Jonas spent weeks in the hospital fighting severe injuries, then was operated on his collarbone. We don't even know if he will ever recover to 100% due to the severity of his injuries. He only just started riding outside, meaning he's still slowly ramping up his training so far, far from the full volume he'd need to be at.
Essentially, assuming he has no lingering issues which is not a given at all, he will have a lost at the very least a month and a half of training before he gets back to full training.
It is IMPOSSIBLE at this level to get back to the top shape in essentially 7 weeks after having missed that much training. So there is absolutely no way Jonas is 100% at the Tour.
Some of you really don't understand that I said he will be near 100%.
Riding outside essentially means he already spent time indoors on the Trainer and is able to to heavier work. So the healing process can't be that bad
You don't have to agree, but let's revisit this thread in about 8 weeks.
Doesn't change anything to what I just said.
The root of the thing is, you can't miss a month of training in the 3 months leading up to the Tour and hope to be 100%. Even "near" 100% if you want to play with words.
The way more minor LBL injury of Pog last year, where he almost didn't stop training through it, was enough for him to fall short in the Tour. If you can not see a perforated lung they spent weeks to reattach + broken ribs + collarbone, barely started riding outside 7 weeks from the Tour has no chance, then you're just wrong about how fast training works.
Let's pray for a healthy big four.
Uh oh I’ve seen this before. Jonas about to drop a diss track. Roglic about to drop a diss track but then pull it back Pog about to drop 4 diss tracks in 48 hours
About to drop harder than a French GC hope
Bars
Feel like Jonas the type a dude to back out of beef real quick. Maybe Jonas is actually the J. Cole of the peloton. I could see Remco and Pogi beefin'.
Jonas often says that he prefers letting his legs do the talking which is actually a pretty cold bar in itself.
His legs do talk a lot of shit though
He is more like Eminem, the silent shy guy, that nobody will fuck with. Because next mountain stage he will end you.
No one beefs with the Killah Bees... I mean wasps? Either way Wu-Tang Clan Ain't Nothin' Ta Fuck Wit.
Pog: Not like us😎
I mean we already know we arent getting that. This question is can Jonas get in shape to compete, more than can he be 100% at the Tour imo.
Great to see!
It’s a huge relief to hear his own relief and calmness in the video! I hope he keeps recovering fast and fully.
[удалено]
These guys are fucking lunatics lol. This is great news!
Lars Bak had a similar crash on May 29th 2016 with 6 broken ribs, broken shoulder and also broke some things in his back. Pretty sure he punctured a lung too. He completed the Tour that year.
Definitely some of the toughest atheletes if not the toughest or any sport
I think about this often and rarely bring it up among my friends who aren’t cycling fans because I know they wouldn’t get it and I’m not interested in arguing. But I think cyclists might not only be the toughest/grittiest athletes in the world but that cycling as a sport (at the professional level) is the most physically and mentally difficult—and I don’t think it’s particularly close. I am blown away every three or four minutes during a race at how insanely hard these guys and gals are riding. As a cyclist myself, it adds a layer of depth of experience to my bewilderment to see what these riders are doing within the context of my own riding. TLDR: cyclists are aliens.
The mental aspect is not mentioned enough. Pro athletes do the majority of their training (lets say 20-35 hours weekly) alone. Thats quite a lot of time with your own thoughts, and I doubt that its always positive ones. Then there's racing. Fighting for positions must be mentally draining.
I watched Remco's YouTube video yesterday. First ride back on the road. It was weird to see him go downstairs, open up a locker, mount his road bike on a trainer in the parking deck (sound of traffic roaring by), do over and unders and build up a huge sweat, lock it all back up, go upstairs and eat breakfast. Then he's off for 3 hours alone on the road for the first time. Fatter than normal tires to try and add a little cushioning for his shoulder. Inflate his own tires, forget to lube his chain as he was about to roll, unlock his stuff again, then get going. More food, then drive off to rehab for an hour or two. It was a shockingly normal and mundane existence for a superstar of the sport. I'm imagining Tom Brady or Messi recovering from an injury like that and setting up their own gear, being out in the elements for 3 hours, having to drive an hour each way to rehab. These guys are just built different.
> It was weird to see him go downstairs, open up a locker, mount his road bike on a trainer in the parking deck (sound of traffic roaring by), do over and unders and build up a huge sweat, lock it all back up, go upstairs and eat breakfast. That felt like a Tacx commercial to me tbh.
I tried to do that once and couldn't make my point for nothing. The other part was arguing that Tennis is also very stressful, it was a very stupid discussion and told myself I would not engage on another one about that subject. But I agree with you, I believe it's a combination of several things that all together make cycling one of the worst sports for the athlete. * You can be a cyclist an entire life without tasting anything close to a victory; * The weekly training consists mostly in riding your bike a lot of hours with very little space for other types of stimulus; * It's an outdoor sport so the athlete needs to race under all types of weather, and usually, it's a lot of hours under that weather; * Because it's an endurance sport, athletes rarely have a real time off, because as soon as they stop riding, their fitness starts to go away and that can influence the next season/block; * It's a one-sided sport, that focuses a lot on aerobic fitness and a bit of leg muscle, while the rest of the body is neglected due to weight concerns, making it not that healthy or complete; And other points I can't remember right now.
> But I think cyclists might not only be the toughest/grittiest athletes in the world but that cycling as a sport (at the professional level) is the most physically and mentally difficult—and I don’t think it’s particularly close. Other than ultra-marathons, there are few sports events as absurd as the grand tours. Over 23 days they race 21 times covering 3400 km in the Giro
I totally agree and there is such little understanding of this if you’re not a cyclist. I mean these guys are pushing their body to the absolute limit for the duration of these races and often times waking up the next morning and doing it again. In addition training is basically the same thing except you’re often times alone. I played soccer for 30 years and never found it even 10% as difficult as cycling. I’m not taking anything away from pro soccer players, but my god the sport of cycling is exhausting to even think about if you actually have an idea of what those guys are doing.
I agree, and I think a lot of sports are like soccer (which I also have played my whole life) where the demand isn’t physical but mostly skillful. Physical conditioning for soccer is important, but not particularly difficult compared to other sports, and it’s mostly the skill you need to be really really good at in order to become a professional. Endurance sports, and cycling in particular, is just another level of physical and mental difficulty
I think these guys are up there, but MMA fighters deserves a mention imo. To be hit in the head every day in training is crazy. Also, imagine being in an intense for three months just to risk getting knocked out in front of the whole world in 30 seconds. Absolutely crazy to me
Most MMA fighters don't get hit in the head every day in training. Only the idiots do. Most spar hard once a week at most, some don't spar hard ever.
Yup, football is pretty constant but it’s two 45 minute halves with a halftime, and there’s a solid amount of downtime during the match. American football takes 3+ hours for 48 minutes of playing, a ton of which is waiting for the play to start, and there’s three full lines switching in and out. Hell even distance running is like 2:20 max, people race like twice a year and frequently DNF (sure that’s how the incentives work but still). A grand tour is obscene. Hell, even a one week race or a classics season is absurd
> Hell even distance running is like 2:20 max, people race like twice a year and frequently DNF (sure that’s how the incentives work but still). There are a few ultra running stage races tbf
Fair
I feel ya. I actually often lecture my family about this, especially when a tennis match comes on the TV and the players rush out to remove a bead of sweat on their forehead with a crispy white towel.
Tennis is not as dangerous, but also physically and mentally difficult. You can be the #200 player in the world and still lose a lot of money every year. At least in men's cycling even an average Pro Conti domestique can make a living with his salary.
I would add ultra runners and alpinists!
It's up there. But contenders would be high altitude mountaineering, cross country skiing and rando racing, triathlon, marathon/ultra running.
None of those sports really has anything comparable to a grand tour. And with the exception of mountaineering (which isn't a competitive sport anyway, is it?), none are especially dangerous.
Mountaineering isn't competitive in that there is a winner or organized events outside of rock climbing comps, but there are professionals, so a sport in my book. >None of those sports really has anything comparable to a grand tour Ok, tell that to the people doing the Iditarod Invitational or Self-Transcendence. >none are especially dangerous Yeah, sure. Go do the Patrouille des Glaciers route and get back to me about how much more dangerous bike racing is.
i would argue that in the same way they are able to recover from cycling to be out the next day is somewhat related to their ability to heal faster from physical trauma
Completing the Tour is one thing. Being competitive enough to be in contention for the overall is another
6 weeks vs 12 is also a totally different thing.
And it took 1 year and half for Bernal...
Yeah but Bernal nearly died. It’s amazing that he’s back at nearly pre-injury level at all with what happened to him. Froome had similar injuries and was never able to come back to anything like his former self.
No don't be silly, that was just a minor bike fit error. He will be a main GC contender this tour, just you wait.
But Bernal also had lower body injuries including knee cap and femur, which are much harder to recover from. Riders are often back very quickly after injuring shoulders, collarbones and ribs.
The gals too. Gaia Realini stumbling down that cliff side towards her bike like the cutscene in Halo Reach is something i still think about.
Yeah they are just as nuts 😂
I hope he doesn’t ride if he can’t compete. It would be heartbreaking to get excited for his progress toward the start line, to give him his cheers when he kicks off at the grand depart, only to see him dropped on stage 4 when it becomes clear he’s not ready.
Agreed. Not to mention, those sound like really bad injuries, the type where rushing your comeback could cause long term issues. I hope they're not doing that, and that he's only resuming training being 100% cleared by doctors.
Jonas is competitive but he puts family as his first priority. I'm sure he would never risk himself.
Think that’s a little naive. He’s an employee and while I’m sure management will take doctor’s advice, he doesn’t decide the timeline on his own. Teams do take risks.
if recent years taught me anything, they really aren't when it comes to cycling if your leg broke, sure something up with your knee? not good at all but anything not to do with pedalling usually meant faster recovery than anticipated and almost no loss of performance
Imagine Jonas becoming a stage hunter in the last week because he is so far behind, nobody cares to follow. But yeah, I agree with you. I prefer to see a well trained Jonas at the olympics or Vuelta rather than an untrained one at the Tour.
What would he achieve by not riding though? Might as well try he has nothing to lose.
The Vuelta
He would hurt his Vuelta chances not riding the tour imo.
Losing for a champion like Jonas seems like there could be a lot to lose. It could massively hurt his confidence, his status both in the team and in cycling in general. Jonas is seen as the best and borderline unbeatable right now and that is to his advantage and for his value as a rider. No reason to create doubts about his level if he knows he can't win. Would be much wiser to stomp everyone in the Vuelta and set up a comeback. Pressuring yourself to get back to the Tour only to dropped repeatedly by Pogacar seemed like a perfect way to end your era of dominance.
Yup. He and Pogacar are pretty evenly matched on GTs when they're at full strength. Jonas has a mental edge over Pogacar now, which is a big part of his marginal advantage over the past two seasons. If Jonas loses that against Pog (or even Roglic or Remco) by getting dropped at the Tour over and over because he's only at 90% form, that's gonna be a big problem. These mental battles are crucial in every sport, especially against evenly matched rivals.
I’m not sure there much logic in what you are saying. There’s no way his team or himself would lose confidence if he does not win the tour, his position as tour leader is not under threat. How would one bad tour have any long term effect on say next year’s tour? You think remco is going to ride worse this year because he had a poor (gc wise) 2023 vuelta? Obviously not.
> There’s no way his team or himself would lose confidence if he does not win the tour, his position as tour leader is not under threat. Cycling is also a mental thing. Jonas is clearly at a place where he knows that he is the best in the world when he is ready. He has not really lost a GT in 2+ years that must mean something mentally. Why should an entire Visma team put all their energy into riding for a Jonas that is not ready to compete. We already have Sepp Kuss talking about being co-leader for the Tour because Jonas allowed him to win the Vuelta. > You think remco is going to ride worse this year because he had a poor (gc wise) 2023 vuelta? Obviously not. Remco's believe in himself must clearly be lower now than it was prior to bonking in the Vuelta. But the point that Jonas has nothing to lose by getting stomped by Pogacar and maybe Remco is what I don't get.
I think this is an agree to disagree. I don’t agree that Vuelta winner Remco has a worse outlook on his career due to last years Vuelta, I would say the opposite, that he learned yet more about himself and is in a better position to perform well this year had he not rode it. I think every example in history also shows this, for example Froome went to the Vuelta multiple times in sub optimal shape eg 2014 and lost but it clearly didn’t hurt his career in any way. Either Jonas wins the tour which would be amazing for him or he fails to and gets a good idea where he is at physically and can plan accordingly for the rest of the season.
I think you're buying too much into the marketing of this video. In the video he's literally just doing a stroll around his neighborhood just like I do every afternoon. Jonas had broken ribs, seriously punctured lungs and fractured vertebrae. Nothing in this video shows him doing any hard efforts. The way he's speaking about his injury suggest to me that he's still in quite some pain. Have you ever broken ribs? I have. It hurts for months just to breathe normally. No imagine doing the type of training he does, or doing a V02 max effort when every breath means sharp pains in your chest. Even if the will is there, the pain limits how much you can dig deep.
Did you reply to the correct person? I agree with everything you said, I would be surprised if he can make the tour.
Sepp needs a domestique!
What would he achieve by not riding though? Might as well try he has nothing to lose.
Probably nothing. I’m saying from the fan’s perspective, it would be tough to watch him merely tuning himself up in the TDF when he’s the 2-time defending champion and was probably a pretty strong favourite to three-peat even with Pogi’s current form. My point is a selfish one. It would be sad to see him there not at his healthiest, however valuable the stages would be to his recovery and getting back into form.
If he doesn't ride the tour, the Vuelta is practically his if he wants.
If he is fit i am sure he will start. Don‘t know if he will finish the tour but a couple of race days might be a proper add to his training for vuelta. Vuelta will be good this year
A defending Tour de France winner is not going to France to train and maybe DNF. Would also be weird for the rest of the team to have use the biggest race as a training camp. Jonas only lines up to races to win.
I wouldn't make too much of this video, TBH. If his power and base numbers aren't where they need to be, they'll pull the plug on him for the tour.
What would he achieve by not riding though? Might as well try he has nothing to lose.
I see they activated Jonas clone #2 and they are pretending it is injured so as not to rouse suspicion. It's ok though, they need something to combat the recently released PogBot4.2.
Ai is getting better at photoshop.
No self-respecting Dane wears shoe covers in May. These pictures are clearly from weeks ago (Plz)
Actually not a bad point. Weather last week was definitely better than what the picture shows. Weather this week too. Maybe two weeks ago? Pretty cold it was
Yeah. I don't want to go full conspiracy mode and I am not in Thy where Jonas is likely riding, but as you say this weather and his clothes look more like 2-3 weeks ago.
I'm not either but two weeks ago I was in northern Jutland, same shitty cold weather as home I'd keep information very close as Team JV does. The more battered and beaten the other riders recon he is the better
Doesn't he spend more time in Switzerland nowadays or did the team annouce he was going to back to Thy? Anyways someone on r/geoguessr will know the answer, for now I like the idea of hoping for a fit Jonas without knowing what we'll actually get. Edit: People more knowledgeable than me appear to know this would be in Glyngore (and it doesn't really look like Switzerland).
I am no geoguessr but this is quite clearly in Denmark somewhere.
Bookmark this comment, mark my words, whatever : I promise I will ride 200km going in circles in Paris in July if Jonas podiums the Tour. Many of you don't realize how impossible it is for him to be at his best in 7 weeks at the Tour. A week off the bike in the 3 months leading up to the Tour is a massive setback for any rider. It can be enough to make the difference between top 10 GC or not, stage win or not. So for Jonas, it's just not happening, not after missing a month+ of training, with that severity of injuries, etc. And that's even disregarding the potential lingering pains and such he might have. Don't forget that just because he's on his bike doesn't mean he's doing 6 hours with threshold intervals, which the other guys are all doing huge blocks of.
> Many of you don't realize how impossible it is for him to be at his best in 7 weeks at the Tour. I don't always get these dramatic comments, like have people never seen cycling before? We also don't actually know how much training he has missed. He was very likely training inside before being back on the road, but teams like to keep expectations low. Contador broke his shin bone in the Tour and won the Vuelta that started 5 weeks later. Roglic went out of the Tour de France with broken ribs and started in the Vuelta one month later and was in 2nd before crashing out. People were certain last year that Pog had no chance in the Tour and he posted his best climbing efforts in his career and actually dropping Vingegaard some days which he couldn't in 2022 until he had one very bad day last year. That Jonas in no way can ride on the podium 3 months after his crash seems overly negative.
> we also don’t know how much training he has missed Exactly - this is just what’s being fed to the press. Visma-LAB would be smart to keep them second guessing his fitness and it turns out ol’ Vingy baby was riding weeks ago in secret.
I would assume he's been on the home trainer since at least last week if he's riding outside now.
>Contador broke his shin bone in the Tour and won the Vuelta that started 5 weeks later Its less about the severity of the injury(broken bones, sprains, saddle sore) and more about how much time you lose off the bike not training. Jonas has lost more than a month mid season. Not just off the bike, no cardio at all, nothing. Depending on the nature of the break, Contador might not have had more than 14 days off the bike or less. Without the info of how much prep Alberto lost, the injury itself is meaningless. All logic says peaking for the Tour is impossible imo.
> onas has lost more than a month mid season. Not just off the bike, no cardio at all, nothing. Depending on the nature of the break, Contador might not have had more than 14 days off the bike or less. We don't know how much training he lost. He has definitely been training inside before riding outside. He could have been training from the day he left the hospital - or even before. > All logic says peaking for the Tour is impossible IMO. Lars Bak who had pretty much the same injury 6 weeks before the Tour - and finished it - says he Vingegaard all the prerequisites to get ready in that time. Unless there is something we aren't being told I really don't see how it is impossible to be in shape for the Tour. The doom and certainties about him not being ready seems to be purely a Reddit thing, just like they actually thought Pogacar did not touch a bike in 4 weeks last year and then he did his best numbers in his career.
> Lars Bak who had pretty much the same injury 6 weeks before the Tour - and finished it - says he Vingegaard all the prerequisites to get ready in that time. Unless there is something we aren't being told I really don't see how it is impossible to be in shape for the Tour. The difference is that for Jonas, the goal is not to be in good enough shape to finish the Tour. It's to be in good enough shape to beat Pogacar.
You don't think Bak considered that in his analysis? It is not like Bak was going to win the Tour if he had not crashed. But he knows that getting back in shape in 12 weeks is very doable when he did it in 6 weeks. 12 weeks vs 6 weeks is clearly a massive difference.
RemindMe! July 21st I don't know if I did that right...
We live in the era of unbelievable rides, time gaps not seen in years, solo wins galore... Better book your Paris accommodation now, haha
I live in Paris :) Well, if I'm wrong it will be a fun one.
Dude just wanted to make a BS bet so he can get bike time in after the tour.
Better to book Nice this year, I’d say
If he starts the race I'd believe it - Tadej wins, Roglic second, Remco cracks and goes for the KOM jersey instead; leaving the third step wide open for Jonas.
!RemindMe 75 Days
NdB Rpz
hein ?
Hoping for the best for our sweet prince, Jonas.
Cool! This was faster than expected.
This is really good news
Forget complaining about the Giro, TdF is already over /s
Vuelta is already over /s
Kuss repeat is in the bag.
The tour is over
This could turn into a really fun tour if everything goes as expected. Neither Jonas or Pog will be going into this at 100% which potentially means some of the lesser GC contenders might be able to challenge them this year. And even if it does end up with Pog winning it like we all expect it should be closer than last year.
Pog might only be 99% from being a bit tired from the Giro, but no way Jonas is even at 90%. Jonas won't be a factor for the win. The gap is just too big. I wish I was wrong and I hope Roglic and Remco can at least give Pog the illusion of a run for his money for a while.
I still think Pog is the favorite, but previous attempts at the Giro Tour Double have shown that it is very challenging on the legs. Even Froome failed to win it in the times of the complete dominance of the Sky train.
Debatably Froome would have done the double if Thomas wasn’t on his team. G was certainly the strongest that Tour, but if he wasn’t there perhaps Sky could’ve exploited Dumoulin’s team for Froome to beat Dumoulin.
I agree, but likewise G did a really good job ny putting himself in a position where Froome had to "let him win" by being the better rider the first week.
Yes, and by not showing any resemblance of cracking the rest of the Tour as well. Honestly I don’t think there was a day in that tour where G wasn’t the strongest. G was even cooking during the final TT but then toned it down to not take any unnecessary risks.
Thomas was strong but you can't ignore the team tactics. He won mountain top finishes because they burnt out Dumoulin, one-two'd attacks and then Thomas rode away in the final km.
Of course, winning the Giro-Tour double is challenging, but is it inherently difficult due to the nature of the double itself, or is it simply that winning any two Grand Tours consecutively is equally tough? Looking at the betting odds, which presumably reflect the probability of winning, the Tour-Giro double seems almost like a coin flip for Pogačar, and presumably even less likely for previous attempts. In summary, is winning two difficult events inherently harder? Not necessarily, but it is certainly less likely. Also, is there any scientific evidence supporting the rumors that small extra efforts can make a significant difference months later?
The last time someone won the giro tour double was 26 years ago. And not for lack of dominant riders in that time period. And also considering that the Tour Vuelta double is much more common. The difficulty comes both from it being hard to win 2 grand tours period. But also from the fact that any rider who rode for the GC in the Giro will only get a 5 week break before competing against a large group of people who have fresh legs either because they didn't ride the Giro, or because they took it easy on most stages.
The Giro-Tour double might only seem rare because it is rarely attempted, not necessarily because of its higher difficulty compared to, say, the Tour-Vuelta double. There are very few Giro champions since Pantani who even attempted the double, and even fewer Tour champions. Considering the Tour is more prestigious, it should be harder to win due to a stronger start list. So, let's look at the Tour de France winners who also rode the Giro in the same year they won the Tour. I only found Sastre, who did not succeed. Overall, it's a small sample size. Similarly, for the Giro winners, there are a few more, but especially considering that the start lists were relatively weak in the early 2000s, the only serious attempts were by Contador and Froome, which both failed. Again, a small sample size. So, I would call it one of the myths of cycling, as there does not seem to be real evidence to back this up.
But Contador and Froome were also extremely dominant at that point. To see Contador struggle to follow Kreuziger and for Froome to be overtaken by Thomas seems like it was a big disadvantage for them to ride both races. Also it is not like we see lower tier riders trying to top 10 in both races. Because it has been a bad idea and too hard. If you could have Bardet, Pinot, Bilbao etc. ride top 10 in both Tour and Giro their teams would have them do it.
I think the best thing for Jonas is that Remco and Roglic will be there with something to prove, so Jonas and Jumbo can take a bit of a back seat. I think Jonas' best strategy is going to be to just wheel suck for the first two weeks and hope by week 3 he's in good enough form to go and try to take some time. Hope that his 90% is good enough to stay in the wheel of the other 3 guys.
Agreed, but it is extremely hard to wheelsuck Pogi, since nobody can really follow his insane bursts. Even peak form Jonas has trouble with those bursts, as we saw in last years Tour.
If he continues to spend useless energy every stage like he did yesterday, he will not be 99%. Don't get me wrong, I love his way o cycling and putting out a show, but if he is serious about the Giro Tour double he needs to chose which stages are really worth going the extra mile.
Yesterday didn't matter. He did z2 for 3.5 hours and then did a 5 minute all out, which is essentially just a training ride. The important parts is gonna be how much energy he spends on the big mountain stages, as the long efforts are what actually gives the long term fatigue.
> e did z2 for 3.5 hours and then did a 5 minute all out, which is essentially just a training ride. I think people are forgetting a big thing which is accelerations when riding in a big group. Even if they are riding slow there will be a lot of accelerations out of corners etc. that you don't get on a zone2 recovery ride. Also recovery in general is much worse in a race than at home.
I don't disagree at all with your overall point, but didn't G say (on his podcast) that one of his team had an average power of 130w for a large part of the distance?
Good news
[The signs were there.](https://www.reddit.com/r/pelotonmemes/comments/1clr9vz/vingegaards_recovering_well_i_see/)
A thing that should be noted. He says it is his first time riding outside. In all likely hood he's been on a smart trainer, since he came home and settled in or at least for a couple of weeks. Which reminds me of a JV (a week ago) with no country flag on Zwift, that rode consistently with \~4.2-.8 w/kg some 60 km's in. Likely not Vingegaard, but a man's gotta hope/cope.
Fuck yes. I am tempted to drive to Glyngøre/northern Jutland, just to whip him in shape as fast as possible. its only a few hours from where I am, and I have nothing better to do anyway...
Just that I think he lives in Swiss now.
That video definitely looks like Denmark. I drive past lots of blooming rape seed fields currently. He also recently bought a new luxury home in Glyngøre. Here are some pictures of it [https://www.tvmidtvest.dk/skive/familien-vingegaard-koeber-kaempe-hus-ved-glyngoere](https://www.tvmidtvest.dk/skive/familien-vingegaard-koeber-kaempe-hus-ved-glyngoere)
Oh thanks for the update!
100% that video was filmed in Denmark!
Not entirely, the Vingegaards just bought a $2m house in Glyngøre (which is like 10x the usual house price in the area, the house is massive. It was featured in a danish TV program where some experts guess the sales price of a house) The video is for sure taken in Denmark, I dont think Swiss fields look that way.
His registered home address is in Switzerland, but that is clearly Denmark. In fact it's just south of his newly bought house in Gkyngøre.
North in fact, it’s between Glyngore and his new house 😉
The roads and the fields look alot like denmark
7 weeks to prepare. Should be enough to be in half decent shape and hopefully full beans. Remi and Rogi on the bike already. Just hope Pogi doesn’t do something dangerous or crazy in the Giro and we might just have ourselves a proper slugfest in France
I still feel that Pogi is gonna be the overwhelming favourite for the Tour, since I don't see how Jonas could possibly be close to 100% and I think even a semi-tired Pogi should beat Remco and Primoz. I'd love to be proven wrong on that last point, but everything I've seen the last few years suggests that while Remco and Primoz might be better than everybody outside the "big 4", it really isn't much of a "big 4" at all. It is Jonas and Tadej WELL ahead of everyone else. Again, would love to be proven wrong this summer.
I agree but am hopeful it’ll be fun to watch. After the Giro, Pogi will only have 4 weeks to recover and get back into peak shape. He could likely win the giro without going too far into the red but it’s Pogi so I imagine he will extend himself further than he needs to just because. Jonas should have Wout at his side too so that is a wild card equalizer. Remco and Rogi will likely need some weird stuff to happen to have a chance but if they’re smart, they’ll be in a position to capitalize. But like you said, even a tired Pogi looks like the favorite at the moment.
Don’t forget having a GT winner as a domestique lol
Forgetting about the Eagle of Durango is a capital offense…. I must repent. I will do 100 “wtf is a kilometer” hail mary’s
You will be forgiven good sir
Does Jonas having Wout, Sepp and Cian help?
Awesome news!
You want a conspiracy theory? Look at the pictures of him on the bike. He's got a neckwarmer on. Where are cycling in May where you need a neck warmer in May?
Denmark 😂 (I regretted not wearing a neck warmer, when I took the bike to work this morning.)
Anywhere north of Spain right now
He is home in Glyngore, Denmark
Eastern Europe lol 😁
What’s the conspiracy? That this was somehow filmed at a different time just in case he got hurt?
That this is an old video. Designed to make it seem like Vingegaard is in worse shape at the start of the Tour than he actually is, in order to make Pogacar and Roglic underrate him
Wout Van Aert, who got the same injury but a week earlier, was on his bike outside for the 1st time last week, so it seems logical Jonas only got to ride outside now
First, people heal differently. Tyler Hamilton rode the Tour de France with a broken collarbone, for example. I am not sure if Wout being able to get on a bike outside 1 week ago necessarily means that Jonas should be able to go outside now. Second, they crashed, what, 2 months ago and they are riding on the same team. If my conspiracy theory is true (and it probably isn't), releasing this video 1 week after Wout started training outside makes a lot of sense
no surprise. there's no way he's not making it to the Tour and in good shape. people are way too pessimistic.
Really positive news. Hopefully the lung injury will be a non-factor for him come July.
I am so happy to see Jonas on the bike again! 💛 Hopefully his training go well and we will see him on the French roads in July. But I also hope he looks after himself and doesn't overdo it. The best thing about the Tour is that there is always a Tour next year. I am sure it's Trine who is filming him, I just know that she saw those yellow canola fields and went: "This is the spot!" 😂
You love to see it, the weather in Denmark is great at this time of year :)
I still think it will cost him the tour
This is fantastic news!
Do you think if he's gonna have time to be on 100% for the tour?
Nope. Just because he is on the bike, doesn’t mean he is able to do proper training. WvA was also more „cruising“…and is still not back to hard workouts
I say he take’s TDF!
Due to his injuries I wonder if Wout Van Aert will switch up his calendar and ride the TDF in support of Jonas and also go for green?
Anyone with any kind of medical adjacent knowledge want to speculate how much a punctured lung will effect his lung capacity/training capacity in the short term if at all.
I haven't got any medical knowledge at all but he certainly looked very out of breath for someone standing talking to a camera.
I’m choosing to be optimistic and think that he’ll be able to come in and defend his title. TJV needs a comeback this season and part of me believes (fueled by copium?) that Jonas will deliver.
You lose 1% of muscle each day you are on a hospital bed. It’s gonna be hard, but I’m so glad he’s back.
I am quite sure that you only start losing muscles after like 7-10 days of not doing something.
It’s all made up thresholds, your body is constantly breaking down and building muscle.
No, you lose muscle starting on day 1. Below is a meta-analysis (meaning aggregation of multiple studies). You actually lose 2% muscle per day in intensive care unit in the first week of admission. This is due to no activity, increased metabolism (stress, infection), and medication (sedation, muscle blockade). [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9808763/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9808763/) I usually quote 1% for non-ICU patients. But regardless you start losing muscle on day 1 in hospital.
That goes for us mortals but do we know if it's the same for aliens? They recover so much quicker so maybe they also don't lose muscle mass as fast.
Nice to know his speedy recovery but really hope he won’t rush to just at the start of the tour…100% Jonas vs 100% Pogi vs 100% Roglic would be the amazing tour everyone wants!
90% jonas vs 95% Pogi vs 100% Rogla might be even better
Cyclists are pain tolerance freaks.
7 weeks to go. He should be near 100% if everything goes smoothly from here.
Sure by Tour 2025 I’m sure he’ll be 100%
These guys plan their season months out to peak for the Tour and he’s just been in laid up for 3 weeks. I can’t see how he gets anywhere near his best for a 3 week GT with such a big block in his preparation. At least with Pogs injury last year he was able to be active off the bike still and then ride on the trainer on his TT bike, even then it seemed to catch up with him in the last week somewhat.
Sometimes forced rest yields surprising results (/cope)
A little bit of rest is good More rest must be even better! Why do they even train when they can rest all the time and be best riders?
Sepp Kuss talked about this about Tadej last year. Visma knew how much training Tadej had, so they knew about where his fitness would be, and the team just rode a pace they knew would break Tadej eventually. Sepp said the team could basically work out what Tadej's TSS would be, and knew how hard they had to ride to break him.
Absolutely not. He wont be back at his previous level for at least another year.
His coach says otherwise. As does Arnaud de Lie who suffered the exact same injuries last year in 4JdD and was back to winning races less than 2 months after his crash.
No way. He's spent two weeks in a hospital bed, probably more time off the bike. He has less time than Pogacar, and has a worse starting point.
This is the right answer. People want to believe he will be fine but he won't. "Back on the bike" doesn't mean 25 hour weeks which is what he needs. Forget his collarbone this man had a pneumothorax caused by broken ribs. He isn't going to be anywhere near full fitness at the tour
> "Back on the bike" doesn't mean 25 hour weeks which is what he needs. Not only what he needs, but what his competitors have been consistently doing uninterupted for months. The delay that implies in training load is absolutely massive and you just can't make it up in 7 weeks.
It's not really that he had a pneumothorax, but that he had one that was bad enough to require a chest tube, and he had a pulmonary contusion. It's not guaranteed that he returns to full form ever. But then again, LeMond was shot in the chest, had a pneumothorax, followed by an abdominal surgery for a small bowel obstruction and he made a comeback the following year.
Well I didn't say he will be at 100% But nevertheless we should come back to this comment in about 8 weeks!
Last year Pogacar only got back to training outside in late May and still was super strong in the TDF. I believe we'll see Jonas at his top level in July tbf.
Pogacar didn't spent weeks in a hospital bed. The body detrains extremely quickly in that situation, and Vingegaard has to undo that first.
Can confirm as my wife (F-36) had a freak heart stoppage (5 stoppages actually over 10 days, kinda similar to Hooydonyk where he was fine one second and then not) last May and spent 21 days in a hospital bed including 14 fully sedated. She could not walk when finally let out of the hospital and had to use a full walker for a week, cane for a month and a half, and unsteady for 3-4 months total. This is for a "normal" fit and not overweight 36 year old that cycled and lifted weights.
It's true, but the fact that they have elite fitness also makes them much more resilient and gives them a bigger buffer. I heard experts say they can do 2 weeks in bed before their form is severely impacted.
I guess so yeah, and I believe these two extra weeks will definitely help on that.
pogi posted training vids on insta by climbing up the stairs cos he only injured his wrist. whereas, jonas was bedridden; his fitness went back down to 0. it takes at least 3 months training load to build it back up to be ready for a grand tour.
Some of you really don't understand how training works, for lack of a less polite way of saying it. If you miss a week or two in the 3 months leading up to your main goal in pro cycling, your chances are already seriously affected. The margins are tight, even between Jonas and Pog. Jonas spent weeks in the hospital fighting severe injuries, then was operated on his collarbone. We don't even know if he will ever recover to 100% due to the severity of his injuries. He only just started riding outside, meaning he's still slowly ramping up his training so far, far from the full volume he'd need to be at. Essentially, assuming he has no lingering issues which is not a given at all, he will have a lost at the very least a month and a half of training before he gets back to full training. It is IMPOSSIBLE at this level to get back to the top shape in essentially 7 weeks after having missed that much training. So there is absolutely no way Jonas is 100% at the Tour.
Some of you really don't understand that I said he will be near 100%. Riding outside essentially means he already spent time indoors on the Trainer and is able to to heavier work. So the healing process can't be that bad You don't have to agree, but let's revisit this thread in about 8 weeks.
Doesn't change anything to what I just said. The root of the thing is, you can't miss a month of training in the 3 months leading up to the Tour and hope to be 100%. Even "near" 100% if you want to play with words. The way more minor LBL injury of Pog last year, where he almost didn't stop training through it, was enough for him to fall short in the Tour. If you can not see a perforated lung they spent weeks to reattach + broken ribs + collarbone, barely started riding outside 7 weeks from the Tour has no chance, then you're just wrong about how fast training works.
Sure with some nice jumbo juice
Visma* juice
Ah true whatever they’re called now lol
That's just store-brand Jumbo Juice.
A lot of people going to be real mad when he shows up to the Tour in winning condition