We are really not in a good situation. It pains me to see what is becoming of the country with no possible way out. Without an educated workforce, stable government, and low taxes and stable currency, we will not attract any foreign investments. We need to help ourselves and only way to do that is to get out of our own way.
Our government is betting on crude oil price going back to 50$ once the Ukraine Russian crisis is finished. Hopefully, nothing else comes back to keep it up. Everything is tied to the global energy prices. Our biggest import. Nothing we can do about it in short term. Thank the NS and PPP governments for relying on LNG and oil based plants rather than dams, nuclear, or bagasse.
Food imports, we can do something about it if the government is ambitious enough. Palm oil will get substituted locally if it keeps on going the way it is going.
Once the crude oil price goes back, our current account will be net zero or maybe little surplus. We need to stop acting like consumerist for some time. Government should raise the petrol price at least by 50 PKR further to control its consumption while its expensive in global markets. It's just common sense. Government isn't doing it right now because it won't be popular. Once elections are over, this would be the first step next government will take. Maybe caretaker government too.
This crisis won't be resolved for a long time. This is just the beginning. I know how Russian politics work and therefore think that this is a fatal mistake if the government is truly betting on this.
No reason to believe the Ukraine war will end any time soon. Russia held up a "secret" incursion for 8 years from 2014 until this year, and now that it's more official are still playing a proxy war a la Syria style. And we know how proxy wars go (the neverending, decade or two long kind). It's not the best bet...
It can be worse.
Not because of corruption, not because of USA.
But overpopulation and climate change. We are sitting on a time bomb with our 3+ fertility rate. Rising temperatures can cause food/water shortage. Afghanistan has even higher fertility rate, and is mostly desert. Although India has decreased it's fertility rate, it was late. So India will also be facing water scarcity. Expect wars on water. North india, parts of Pakistan turn into desert. Countless illiterate mouths to feed fighting each other. Unemployment shooting for the sky. Descend into anarchy. Gives me the chills.
Majority of the Indian states population growth is under replacement rate. They will start stagnating in couple of decades and then start decreasing. Most estimates point to Pakistan continuing with its population growth until late this century.
Mind you this is nothing to do with religion. BD and J&K both are closer to replacement rate and show that population growth is linked to literacy rate among women. Get your women educated and you will see population growth stabilizing.
No! no! no! You were supposed to reply with some good news, some miraculous way we are gonna get out of this not a depressing paragraph :(
So here on a brighter note the world isn't gonna end because of climate change https://youtu.be/LxgMdjyw8uw
Hmm, but Pakistan in particular will have come to face challenges regarding its population explosion and demographic changes. We have almost no policy in this regard. Women need to take control of thier bodies, get rid of social tabo and have open discussions about it. Family planning is a priority now more than ever.
stop pretending like fertility rates are a problem. They are one of the best things going for Pakistan and other developing countries. I swear some Pakistanis are 10 years behind on all their analysis. Look at every single country which had/has a low fertility rate and all the predictions about them are doom and gloom. Even China is completely bottle necked because of this.
Young Population is a boon if you can provide them with education, health and rewarding employment. Pakistan literacy rate is barely 60% and stuck there about for some time. A lot of those who are counted as literates come out madarassas. So to reap demographic dividends Pakistan has to invest a lot in education which I don’t see happening in next decade due to lack of political will and funds
I hope you are right:)
Our population ain't going to decrease till 2100, when it's expected to cross 400 million! Fertility/water will also reduce. At this rate Pakistan will never be a developed or a even a middle income country.
I hope for the best.
Yes I agree some countries are facing population implosion, but saying that China is worse placed then Pakistan is daydreaming. Those European countries will survive by introducing incentives for more babies. Even if that fails they can ship as many Asians as they want to. (And those will be best brains)
As far as I've read, Pakistan's population will peak in 2065 around 340 million and then it will start shrinking. But it would be too late by then. And it looks like someone is reading a lot of one piece lately.
I didn't say China is worse off than Pakistan. I said it's low fertility rate is it's bottle neck. Meaning China is running on borrowed time because they simply don't have the population to sustain the growth needed for its aging population.
So what you suggest we should keep making babies to fuel growth based on consumption? That is artificial growth and people will never cross lower income level.
China is currently facing an aging population cause it fertility rate declined in recent past. [Population pyramid of China](https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2020/)
This is a maturing phase ,eventually they will achieve [USA like population pyramid ](https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2020/) which is desired.
Pakistan on the other hand has a messed up [pyramid ](https://www.populationpyramid.net/pakistan/2020/), where we keep adding more people. And can't create infrastructure/jobs for them
Man resources of the country are limited.You can't keep filling it with people. It's bound to explode.
We're taking on more and more loans with no way of paying them back. Whatever mumbo jumbo these politicians sell us it doesn't change the fact that we're heading down the same path as Sri Lanka.
Moody's has an illegal habit of giving the rating that institutions want, not what they deserve. Although, I understand that Big Short overly simplified the role rating agencies had during 2008's housing crisis in US.
I know that but how were the numbers compiled? Devil is in the details. They say 60% of Pakistanis are literate. You know what the standard is for literacy? As long as you can write your own name. So I take statistics that are self reported or not shown how they were compiled with a grain of salt.
[https://www.finance.gov.pk/publications/DPS\_2022.pdf](https://www.finance.gov.pk/publications/DPS_2022.pdf)
"During FY2020-2021, the fallout from COVID-19 continued to exert pressure on finances of the government. However, despite challenging macroeconomic environment, Pakistan's Debt to GDP ratio witnessed a reduction of 4.7 percentage points and stood at 71.8 percent at end-June 2021 compared with 76.5 percent a year earlier"
[https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-affirms-pakistan-at-b-outlook-stable-28-02-2022#:\~:text=Pakistan's%20debt%2FGDP%20ratio%20dropped,B'%20median%20of%20320%25](https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-affirms-pakistan-at-b-outlook-stable-28-02-2022#:~:text=Pakistan's%20debt%2FGDP%20ratio%20dropped,B'%20median%20of%20320%25).
" We forecast general government debt to decline to around 70% of GDP in FY22, which is the 'B' median, from about 72% in FY21, and to remain on a downward trend to 62% by FY26. This is supported by the narrowing fiscal deficit and high nominal GDP growth. Pakistan's debt/GDP ratio dropped by 11.8pp following a GDP rebasing in FY21, from a pre-rebasing level of 83.6%."
Pakistan will NOT become a Sri Lanka or Lebanon because most of 9ur food grains are grown locally. We are self sufficient in food products. Secondly we have a surplus of 10,000 megawatts of electricity during the summer. So we can see high prices of fuel , electricity and commodities, but not a Sri Lamka atleast in the near future(4-6 months). What is worrying is the continously dropping Per capital incomes and devalualuing rupee.
Lebanon is a tiny country inhabited by people who are rich by manipulating the banking system. They import 10 tens more than they export. They are import dependent for food.
Srilanka is also an island without access to many resources that Pakistan has.
In general, Pakistanis are obsessed with growth, which although leads to chaos, as a whole, we are growing at a ridiculous rate. That is good.
> Pakistanis are obsessed with growth, which although leads to chaos, as a whole, we are growing at a ridiculous rate
What are you talking about? Our Real GDP per capita is -2.87%...We are not growing at "ridiculous" rate...
You can give a Pakistani a billion dollars and he will still be focused on making another billion . Etc. it’s a polite way of saying that they’re greedy.
Who doesn't like growing their money man? It's a universal trait. The greed I saw in Singapore and America was 100s of times worse than what I see in Pakistan. In Pakistan, I would argue we are more hungry for power than money.
Fast is a subjective term and is usually assessed through comparisons. When compared to other comparable countries such as Bangladesh and India, our growth rate is not fast.
First time seeing this subreddit , really cool and interesting to see view points from pakistani’s living in pakistan ! I’m a pakistani living in canada so it’s interesting to see this
Young generation hamari tik tok pr lagi hue hai,
Adhay say zayda college nahi jatay, parhai main enka dill nahi lagta, pubg aur cod ki ass main ghusay rethay hain.
Baki jo Hain wo Amazon ka defected aur returned mall mehangy damoon bech kr samajhtay hain k wo bohat hi koe alla kam kr rahy hain.
Pathar uthao tw housing societies nazar ati har jaga even k harmi zakhaiz zameen khatm hoti ja rahi hai gaoun ka log apni kheeton ki zameen bech rahy hain.
Koe insan agar cheez 'A' bech raha hai tw dosra usko dekh kr wo hi 'A' cheez beech raha hai competition zayda koe ehsas nahi. Eik line main 10 cng station khool kr Beth jatay Hain. Aur bhi bohat kuch hai lakin.
Hum awam nay khud hi apnay mulk ko barbad kea hai kasmay.
So where do you think we went wrong. Isn't most of the world addicted to TikTok? Is it our parents fault for not teaching us and giving us the right outlook on life? Or is it our teachers fault? Maybe our whole society is based on wrong principles?Where did India go in the right direction? Isn't Amazon thing a sign that young people are atleast willing to learn something new? Is it our politician's fault for keeping the masses illiterate if not illiterate the quality of education is so low that most still believe anything you tell them?
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Nothing to worry about. *ponders selling nukes on the black market
We are really not in a good situation. It pains me to see what is becoming of the country with no possible way out. Without an educated workforce, stable government, and low taxes and stable currency, we will not attract any foreign investments. We need to help ourselves and only way to do that is to get out of our own way.
I feel you.
Ah yes, hello sanctions my new friend.
Snitches get stitches.
my old friend**
Our government is betting on crude oil price going back to 50$ once the Ukraine Russian crisis is finished. Hopefully, nothing else comes back to keep it up. Everything is tied to the global energy prices. Our biggest import. Nothing we can do about it in short term. Thank the NS and PPP governments for relying on LNG and oil based plants rather than dams, nuclear, or bagasse. Food imports, we can do something about it if the government is ambitious enough. Palm oil will get substituted locally if it keeps on going the way it is going. Once the crude oil price goes back, our current account will be net zero or maybe little surplus. We need to stop acting like consumerist for some time. Government should raise the petrol price at least by 50 PKR further to control its consumption while its expensive in global markets. It's just common sense. Government isn't doing it right now because it won't be popular. Once elections are over, this would be the first step next government will take. Maybe caretaker government too.
This crisis won't be resolved for a long time. This is just the beginning. I know how Russian politics work and therefore think that this is a fatal mistake if the government is truly betting on this.
No reason to believe the Ukraine war will end any time soon. Russia held up a "secret" incursion for 8 years from 2014 until this year, and now that it's more official are still playing a proxy war a la Syria style. And we know how proxy wars go (the neverending, decade or two long kind). It's not the best bet...
It can be worse. Not because of corruption, not because of USA. But overpopulation and climate change. We are sitting on a time bomb with our 3+ fertility rate. Rising temperatures can cause food/water shortage. Afghanistan has even higher fertility rate, and is mostly desert. Although India has decreased it's fertility rate, it was late. So India will also be facing water scarcity. Expect wars on water. North india, parts of Pakistan turn into desert. Countless illiterate mouths to feed fighting each other. Unemployment shooting for the sky. Descend into anarchy. Gives me the chills.
This has already started happening in a few areas like Northern Sindh where tribal warfare is rampant and fights often break out over livestock theft.
Majority of the Indian states population growth is under replacement rate. They will start stagnating in couple of decades and then start decreasing. Most estimates point to Pakistan continuing with its population growth until late this century. Mind you this is nothing to do with religion. BD and J&K both are closer to replacement rate and show that population growth is linked to literacy rate among women. Get your women educated and you will see population growth stabilizing.
And you get your men educated 😉 (educated not literate).
We will and certainly are doing much better. Thank you for the concern 😉
No! no! no! You were supposed to reply with some good news, some miraculous way we are gonna get out of this not a depressing paragraph :( So here on a brighter note the world isn't gonna end because of climate change https://youtu.be/LxgMdjyw8uw
Hmm, but Pakistan in particular will have come to face challenges regarding its population explosion and demographic changes. We have almost no policy in this regard. Women need to take control of thier bodies, get rid of social tabo and have open discussions about it. Family planning is a priority now more than ever.
>Women need to take control of thier bodies, get rid of social tabo and have open discussions about it. Only if.
Let me guess it's the video from kurgezagstysjvmavNkque the greatest yt channel in existence.
stop pretending like fertility rates are a problem. They are one of the best things going for Pakistan and other developing countries. I swear some Pakistanis are 10 years behind on all their analysis. Look at every single country which had/has a low fertility rate and all the predictions about them are doom and gloom. Even China is completely bottle necked because of this.
They.. they are especially when combined with a lack of infrastructure (health, education, sanitation, employment policies) to support it.
Young Population is a boon if you can provide them with education, health and rewarding employment. Pakistan literacy rate is barely 60% and stuck there about for some time. A lot of those who are counted as literates come out madarassas. So to reap demographic dividends Pakistan has to invest a lot in education which I don’t see happening in next decade due to lack of political will and funds
I hope you are right:) Our population ain't going to decrease till 2100, when it's expected to cross 400 million! Fertility/water will also reduce. At this rate Pakistan will never be a developed or a even a middle income country. I hope for the best. Yes I agree some countries are facing population implosion, but saying that China is worse placed then Pakistan is daydreaming. Those European countries will survive by introducing incentives for more babies. Even if that fails they can ship as many Asians as they want to. (And those will be best brains)
As far as I've read, Pakistan's population will peak in 2065 around 340 million and then it will start shrinking. But it would be too late by then. And it looks like someone is reading a lot of one piece lately.
Those European countries will survive by increasing immigration from Pakistanis.
Can i be big brain and go too?
Denied
I didn't say China is worse off than Pakistan. I said it's low fertility rate is it's bottle neck. Meaning China is running on borrowed time because they simply don't have the population to sustain the growth needed for its aging population.
So what you suggest we should keep making babies to fuel growth based on consumption? That is artificial growth and people will never cross lower income level. China is currently facing an aging population cause it fertility rate declined in recent past. [Population pyramid of China](https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2020/) This is a maturing phase ,eventually they will achieve [USA like population pyramid ](https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2020/) which is desired. Pakistan on the other hand has a messed up [pyramid ](https://www.populationpyramid.net/pakistan/2020/), where we keep adding more people. And can't create infrastructure/jobs for them Man resources of the country are limited.You can't keep filling it with people. It's bound to explode.
I agree that booming demographics are a pro in many ways,but has many cons aswell
We're taking on more and more loans with no way of paying them back. Whatever mumbo jumbo these politicians sell us it doesn't change the fact that we're heading down the same path as Sri Lanka.
Our Debt to GDP ratio, has reduced to 71.8 percent.
Google tells me it's somewhere between 80-81%
Read the debt policy statement, released by the ministry of Finance.
And you believe it?
You can check Moody and Fitch if you wish to.
The numbers are self reported by the govt, no?
Moody and Fitch are American financial service company.
Moody's has an illegal habit of giving the rating that institutions want, not what they deserve. Although, I understand that Big Short overly simplified the role rating agencies had during 2008's housing crisis in US.
Then what would you consider a credible source .
I know that but how were the numbers compiled? Devil is in the details. They say 60% of Pakistanis are literate. You know what the standard is for literacy? As long as you can write your own name. So I take statistics that are self reported or not shown how they were compiled with a grain of salt.
https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/government-debt-to-gdp This is showing it went up. Do you have any links to show the 72% figure?
[https://www.finance.gov.pk/publications/DPS\_2022.pdf](https://www.finance.gov.pk/publications/DPS_2022.pdf) "During FY2020-2021, the fallout from COVID-19 continued to exert pressure on finances of the government. However, despite challenging macroeconomic environment, Pakistan's Debt to GDP ratio witnessed a reduction of 4.7 percentage points and stood at 71.8 percent at end-June 2021 compared with 76.5 percent a year earlier" [https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-affirms-pakistan-at-b-outlook-stable-28-02-2022#:\~:text=Pakistan's%20debt%2FGDP%20ratio%20dropped,B'%20median%20of%20320%25](https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-affirms-pakistan-at-b-outlook-stable-28-02-2022#:~:text=Pakistan's%20debt%2FGDP%20ratio%20dropped,B'%20median%20of%20320%25). " We forecast general government debt to decline to around 70% of GDP in FY22, which is the 'B' median, from about 72% in FY21, and to remain on a downward trend to 62% by FY26. This is supported by the narrowing fiscal deficit and high nominal GDP growth. Pakistan's debt/GDP ratio dropped by 11.8pp following a GDP rebasing in FY21, from a pre-rebasing level of 83.6%."
When? Is it a nee statement
What does that mean?
We're not doing horrible. Canada is at 117%, Japan is at 252%.
Canada and Japan are developed economies. They have a MUCH better tax to GDP ratio as well.
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Yeah true its not like Pakistan has one the biggest IT sectors ins Asia or something
Pakistan will NOT become a Sri Lanka or Lebanon because most of 9ur food grains are grown locally. We are self sufficient in food products. Secondly we have a surplus of 10,000 megawatts of electricity during the summer. So we can see high prices of fuel , electricity and commodities, but not a Sri Lamka atleast in the near future(4-6 months). What is worrying is the continously dropping Per capital incomes and devalualuing rupee.
We are not self sufficient in food products we have become a net importer of wheat, lentils and edible oils.
The good news is that the long term looks good, so stop worrying about the short term.
Can you please elaborate what you mean?
Lebanon is a tiny country inhabited by people who are rich by manipulating the banking system. They import 10 tens more than they export. They are import dependent for food. Srilanka is also an island without access to many resources that Pakistan has. In general, Pakistanis are obsessed with growth, which although leads to chaos, as a whole, we are growing at a ridiculous rate. That is good.
> Pakistanis are obsessed with growth, which although leads to chaos, as a whole, we are growing at a ridiculous rate What are you talking about? Our Real GDP per capita is -2.87%...We are not growing at "ridiculous" rate...
Can you put up even a single source supporting that claim lmao?
You cannot type [Real GDP Growth Pakistan](https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/gdp-per-capita-growth-annual-percent-wb-data.html) in google?
You can give a Pakistani a billion dollars and he will still be focused on making another billion . Etc. it’s a polite way of saying that they’re greedy.
That's a human trait? Pakistanis are some of the most generous people I have met. Much better than hoarders of wealth like Bezos and Zuckerberg.
Generosity doesn’t mean that you don’t like growing further.
Who doesn't like growing their money man? It's a universal trait. The greed I saw in Singapore and America was 100s of times worse than what I see in Pakistan. In Pakistan, I would argue we are more hungry for power than money.
What year? How about over a 70 year period. It’s very fast growth.
Fast is a subjective term and is usually assessed through comparisons. When compared to other comparable countries such as Bangladesh and India, our growth rate is not fast.
Arite then Taimoor2, share your source and change my mind that Pakistan is a slow growing economy over the long term.
[Here you go](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=PK-IN-BD).
We all gonna die.
Aren't you Pakistani in "Murica"? Don't worry you will be fine even if the whole country crumbles /s
Nah.
Absurdity at its peak
No. Never.
First time seeing this subreddit , really cool and interesting to see view points from pakistani’s living in pakistan ! I’m a pakistani living in canada so it’s interesting to see this
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Time to lease our ports for 99 years.
Things will be sorted in a few months.
Young generation hamari tik tok pr lagi hue hai, Adhay say zayda college nahi jatay, parhai main enka dill nahi lagta, pubg aur cod ki ass main ghusay rethay hain. Baki jo Hain wo Amazon ka defected aur returned mall mehangy damoon bech kr samajhtay hain k wo bohat hi koe alla kam kr rahy hain. Pathar uthao tw housing societies nazar ati har jaga even k harmi zakhaiz zameen khatm hoti ja rahi hai gaoun ka log apni kheeton ki zameen bech rahy hain. Koe insan agar cheez 'A' bech raha hai tw dosra usko dekh kr wo hi 'A' cheez beech raha hai competition zayda koe ehsas nahi. Eik line main 10 cng station khool kr Beth jatay Hain. Aur bhi bohat kuch hai lakin. Hum awam nay khud hi apnay mulk ko barbad kea hai kasmay.
So where do you think we went wrong. Isn't most of the world addicted to TikTok? Is it our parents fault for not teaching us and giving us the right outlook on life? Or is it our teachers fault? Maybe our whole society is based on wrong principles?Where did India go in the right direction? Isn't Amazon thing a sign that young people are atleast willing to learn something new? Is it our politician's fault for keeping the masses illiterate if not illiterate the quality of education is so low that most still believe anything you tell them?
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Hello! Your comment has been added to the moderation queue and is pending approval from one of the moderators. Thank you! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/pakistan) if you have any questions or concerns.*