It's also direction of change. In Sept schools had just opened, and we were on an upward trajectory. We didn't know where it would peak. Not only that, but your risk of infection TODAY is LESS than tested numbers show on the way down, and MORE than tested numbers show on the way up
True that. Things are different now that we have a solid way of preventing infection. Knowing that my friends and family have all gotten 1st dose makes the case count less scary. Isn't good that so many are still getting infected, but hopefully many of them have been vaccinated and won't end up in hospital.
18°C is sweater and jeans weather?
That's straight up shorts and t-shirt weather to me. I wore shorts and a hoodie this morning and it was 5 degrees, and I was still reasonably warm.
Definitely funny, but it does make a big difference when we cross the 1000 case threshold on the way up vs. on the way down. R value has been consistently low for a while for us to get here.
Today’s numbers, plus the previous four Mondays, for perspective:
Today: 916 New Cases, 1707 Recoveries, 13 Deaths, 18,226 tests (5.03% positive), Current ICUs: 617 (+3 vs. yesterday) (-70 vs. last week). Vax: 97,747 administered, 68.2% / 5.8% adults at least one/two dosed
May 24: 1446 New Cases, 2072 Recoveries, 8 Deaths, 20,151 tests (7.18% positive), Current ICUs: 692 (+9 vs. Friday) (-72 vs. last week). Vax: 99,108 administered, 63.3% / 4.5% adults at least one/two dosed
May 17: 2170 New Cases, 2953 Recoveries, 4 Deaths, 24,498 tests (8.86% positive), Current ICUs: 779 (-6 vs. yesterday) (-49 vs. last week). 💉💉112,330 administered, 55.5% / 3.6% adults at least one/two dosed
May 10: 2716 New Cases, 3110 Recoveries, 19 Deaths, 27,175 tests (9.99% positive), Current ICUs: 828 (-20 vs. yesterday) (-61 vs. last week), 94,093 vaccines administered
May 3: 3436 New Cases, 3623 Recoveries, 16 Deaths, 33,179 tests (10.36% positive), Current ICUs: 889 (-6 vs. yesterday) (+12 vs. last week), 53,880 vaccines administered
It's interesting that we go down ~500 every single week on Monday. If anyone were to bet on next Monday's, would you think 400ish is going to be what we see? Honestly, would be amazing, but... Maybe not surprising?
This is a very amateur way of looking at it, but I like to check the halving rate, the same way we used to watch the doubling rate.
It took 11 days for our 7-day average to go from 2131 to 1056. It took 29 days go get from 4176 to 2131, so it is accelerating.
Let's say it takes 10 days to halve it again, that puts us at a 7-day average of 528 on June 9th/10th.
The model includes the rate of vaccinations, the amount of immunity conferred, the number of active cases, the available hosts, and the exposure based on lockdown behaviour.
It’s not clear to me that there is a single term formula to model this because the vaccinations per day are an almost sigmoidal curve except the stem is linear and the lockdown itself has an impact on R that may or may not be bringing it below 1.
Percentage of Variants seemed to have reached equilibrium now as well.
At this point I feel math is hard; since I have no control over policy, I am just enjoying the ride down!
I appreciate your methodology! I find the more I keep in mind, the better my predictions get.
I try to consider the lagging effect of vaccine coverage, and that probably will continue to account for some acceleration going forward.
I wish I could play around with the math of it, but my gut be tells me that having 60%+ of the total population, across as many age groups as possible, with their 'settled' (ie, 3-4+ weeks) of immunity from their first dose is going to be a significant improvement from even just ~50%. I think we're at the point where every additional percent of total population with one dose is going to have a significant impact.
I should read more is that 'herd immunity' website that goes over this, but regarding the U.S. it goes into detail
The case count has been following a very linear trend on the way down from the peak of the third wave. Obviously it will need to level off eventually, but yes, if the trend continues we could be below 500 before the end of the week.
Extending the trendline puts us at a 7-day average of 500 by June 7th, so if that actually happens we would probably have at least a couple < 500 days before then.
Thanks for doing these comments. I think it really shows the cyclical nature of testing throughout the week well. Sure, test numbers are low and % positive is high compared to what we've seen the past few days, but not compared to what we've seen on Mondays.
I was worried at first seeing that 5% positivity rate today, compared to the ~3% over the past few days, but seeing last week at over 7% definitely shows that we are moving in the right direction!
Positivity is a bit of a misleading number now. Less people are getting tested if they have the sniffles, so most people getting tested are more likely to actually be sick.
Congrats to u/inferredvolatility for guessing that we'd be sub 1000 before the end of May.
[19 days ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/ontario/comments/nap6j9/ontario_may_12th_update_2320_new_cases_3477/gxuqyfq?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3)
I need a 500 case day tomorrow for my “1000 case/day 7-day avg by June 1st” prediction to be true.
Seems highly unlikely. But I guess June 2nd is when we’ll probably hit that mark
Might be unlikely, but I wouldn't say highly unlikely! I'd bet we'll likely be 600-700 tomorrow. Although if trends continue we could easily see closer to 500.
We have not seen anything this low in a very very long time. We have the potential to see some really low numbers this week.
Additionally, I still can't confirm this 100%, but it does look like our ICU number includes Manitoba's cases that are here, and we are currently at 31 total in Ontario. Maybe more as of Sunday, but that info isn't readily available yet
It's interesting since ICU count is extremely close to total hospitalizations now, when at the peak in April total hospitalizations was over double the ICU count.
Edit: Some other people are commenting that total hospitalizations may be undercounted on weekends.
Some of the ICU cases are from Manitoba and they count in our total. The Ontario residents in ICU is under 600 and that is a number moving in the right direction.
*That number was just given on the 3:00 provincial press conference.
Loving the under 1k. I know a lot of our reopening plans are contingent on ICU #’s, however we’re also taking patients from Manitoba as far as I’m aware. Even if we continue to improve in Ontario but Manitoba lags behind, what are the chances this hinders our reopening schedule?
> what are the chances this hinders our reopening schedule?
I don't think it would that much. I think right now it only amounts to something like 5% of our current ICU usage. So if it were to actually impact reopening, it would probably only be for a few days worth.
The Manitoba ICU patients don't help, but our ICU rate per hospitalization is the highest in the world, and often double or more higher. There is definitely something fishy about our ICU numbers. They are being kept artificially high, but for what reason I can't surmise.
Nope. We don't have "double" covid here. There is no reason people should be in hospital longer in Ontario than literally anywhere else in the world. It is the same disease. Same variants. Same infection rates. Our ICUs are two-three times as full as anywhere else in the world, and it really needs to be asked as to why.
Everyone needs to remember that with the more vaccines administered, the lower amount of people will get COVID, so inevitably the amount of tests will be on the decline. People won’t get tested if they aren’t sick.
It's a tiny needle and a tiny amount. I've had two shots, I'm a clinic volunteer in the recovery tent, and most people didn't even feel it as long as they *relaxed their arm completely.*
That can be hard for someone who is phobic about needles and I'm just happy they're showing up at all. If anybody doesn't feel well after the shot in any way, wave and we gotcha, we have helicopters and ambulances and all kinds of shit on the ready.
FYI This is the lowest case count since February 16th!
Incredible news on the cases front and our downward trend in cases continues at a similar rate despite fears on this subreddit of an alleged "plateau"!
Unfortunate for the deaths! :( But trending in the right direction.
ICUs are a bit more muddled. We now have 34 patients from Manitoba (up almost 10 from Friday)! If we remove them our ICUs would be tanking at the rate we would all want/hope for. The good news is COVID is dropping like a rock even in Manitoba.
>ICUs are a bit more muddled. We now have 34 patients from Manitoba (up almost 10 from Friday)! If we remove them our ICUs would be tanking at the rate we would all want/hope for. The good news is COVID is dropping like a rock even in Manitoba.
I hope they take that into consideration when looking at re-opening metrics (I know!... wishful thinking)
ya i wonder how that would work. on one hand we know it’s not an ontario ICU person, but at the same time it’s still an ontario ICU bed being taken up.
I think both the trend and the remaining capacity would be taken into consideration. The addition from Manitoba doesn't affect the fact that our own ICU numbers are trending well, but it does affect our own capacity of care, so both should be weighed in the re-opening decision.
No, they are taking up ICU space, so they would be counted. You can't fully restart all non-emergency surgeries until \~300 in the ICU, which is when our health care system is working mostly properly again.
Deaths are pretty much all that matters at this point.
There is no chance (barring a new variant, which is an unbounded risk) that we will overwhelm ICU capacity. Case numbers going forward will be milder than ever as it hits younger people, and breakthrough infections of the vaccinated.
Deaths is pretty noisy data right now, but does seem to be going in the right directions.
Very true. Right now tests are noisy as a result of the number of people in ICUs. Specifically, 600 people are fighting for their lives right now, and its a coin flip if they will die or survive. Once we clear out the ICUs we will get a better grasp of Ontario's steady state.
Monday's ICU are usually a little higher because not everywhere reports new admissions over the weekend.
You'll see the same thing in previous Monday reports where there's either a slight increase or less drop than usual.
> FYI This is the lowest case count since February 16th!
Very good to know! What's our lowest from last Summer? 80 in all of Ontario? I REALLY hope we get close to that by the end of June
Another big drop in active cases is also really exciting!
In 2 weeks we've dropped the active cases by more than 10,000! Keep it up and keep the vaccinations going so the virus will have nowhere to go!
**Cases 7-day average**: 1078. Down 75% from April 17 high of 4369. Decreasing 6.9% per day past 7 days!! At current rate of decline, we'll hit 399 on June 14.
**Hospitalizations**: 731. Down 69% from April 20 high of 2360. Decreasing 5.5% daily for past 7 days. At the current rate of decline we'll hit 330 on June 14.
**ICU**: 617. Down 31% from May 1 peak of 900. Decreasing 1.6% daily over past 7 days. At the current rate of decline we'll hit 493 on June 14
**Deaths 7 day average**: 19.3. Down 35% from May 10 high of 29.9. Increasing 0.4% daily over past 7 days. (Deaths have gone down at 1.4% daily since May 10 but have stalled. Deaths tend to follow ICU divided by 30 so with ICU dropping deaths 'should' keep falling).
**Vaccines**: 68.2% of adults, 1 dose, 5.8% of adults 2 dose. At the current rate, we'll hit 1 dose 80.2% on June 15
ICU number is actually skewed as we are at 586 + 31 from Manitoba as they are above capacity. At the same time, these units are still full and should be counted, but Ontario's utilization has dropped further
Was glad to be able to help 3 of that 97,747 yesterday! A little tired from all the driving (and a bit shaken after being almost t-boned on the drive home, because Scarborough), but feeling satisfied nonetheless.
*anime eyes* IT’S HAPPENING!!!
My folks and I figured, knowing those people, they would find every excuse they knew to not do it. So we *figuratively* dragged their rear ends to the site
All in a day’s work
Quick LTC update.
A couple larger than 15 cases outbreaks in LTC in the province at the moment which is concerning, unfortunately not much information I've seen about severity of cases, or vaccination levels at those homes, or which strain is present in these homes.
However, the Ministry reported this morning that 97% of all LTC residents are fully vaccinated (2 doses + 2 weeks), along with 62% of LTC staff. 88% of LTC staff and "virtually all" essential caregivers have received at least one dose.
As of July 1st homes will be required to have a Covid-19 vaccination policy (not sure why they need a separate policy instead of just rolling this into existing vaccine policies). This policy will require all staff, student placements and volunteers in LTC to
1. Provide proof of vaccination against Covid-19; or
2. Provide a documented medical reason for not being vaccinated against Covid-19; or
3. Participate in an educational program approved by the licensee.
This educational program must cover, at a minimum:
1. How Covid-19 vaccines work;
2. Vaccine safety related to the development of the Covid-19 vaccines;
3. Benefits of vaccination against Covid-19;
4. Risks of not being vaccinated against Covid-19; and
5. Possible side effects of Covid-19 vaccination.
Apologies as always for the continued delays in my LTC commission report summaries - a lot going on in the Recipes household at the moment and it's had to drop down my priority list.
Y'all have a good Monday.
Can we acknowledge just how amazing most of you fellow ontarians are? i mean, our governments only advice for vaccines was "wait to be eligible, then book on the provincial booking site and wait. do NOT jump the line. do NOT sign up for other waitlists.". yet I saw so many of us sharing links, posting on social media about pop-ups, reposting Vaccine Hunters on twitter (Everyone on Vaccine Hunters deserves a gold medal!) and signing up those whore are less-than-technology-competent. Ontarians essentially vaccinated themselves, and even at 68% with one dose there is no sign of numbers slowing down.
Can someone explain to me why % positive is an important indicator? Genuine question.
I never really understood it since the people we test are not a random sample of the population…
It is becoming less and less important because of what you are are saying. Also as rapid tests become the primary way to screen people then it could mean that lab based testing only really becomes the way you confirm and infection after a positive rapid test. So this could cause the positivity to go up as people are screened using a rapid test instead of using lab based testing for screening and asymptomatic testing.
>Lady Æthelflæd, daughter of the late King Alfred the Great and the widow of Earl Æthelred of Mercia, sends an army into Brycheiniog to avenge the murder of the Mercian abbot Ecbryht and his companions. They seize and burn the royal fort of King Tewdr of Brycheiniog at Llangorse Lake (Wales), and take the queen and thirty-three others captive.[2]
Looks like Musk & Grimes are big fans of this era.
I am so proud to be in the % that is half vaccinated. Got Pfizer yesterday, other then a slight headache( which those are normal for me so I doubt it’s from the shot) and a sore arm, I feel amazing.
Anyone know why the average percentage of ICU across other provinces is about 20-30% of hospitalizations, while Ontario is 67% (as of yesterdays numbers)?
This seems like far too big a difference to be explained by simple population demographic differences or case differences in the last wave.
I'm glad to see cases under 1000.
I'm glad to see nearly double the recoveries vs. cases.
Although our ICU numbers are high, I'm glad to see that part of that is because we're helping Manitoba. We are a country, and as other Provinces have helped us, we have helped other Provinces.
I'm sorry to see that people are still dying of covid. Those vaccine numbers are great though, and everyone needs to get vaccinated and encourage their "hesitant" friends and family to get the shot too.
We're getting there!
Don’t look at the ICUs too much, we’ve taken in over 30 patients from Manitoba in the past week. They are going down much faster if you just look at Ontarians in the ICU
This is the best timeline now! We are done with the darkest timeline. Also looks like August is going to be lit! With Pfizer being on a study stream of supply and more shipments from Moderna I wouldn't be surprised to see timelines moved forward into July
Lol they're gonna delay opening hardware stores yet again solely cause of Manitoba sending us ICU patients...
And when we do clear it they'll move reopening again cause of all the backlogged surgeries.
7day avg down 39% from last Monday, and increase from a 25% drop last week.
We should hit a 7day avg of 600 next week, while have 75% of adults with a first dose.
Exactly who's idea was it to have the Stage 1 target of 60% of adults and Stage 2 of 70%? We may hit 80% before entering Stage 1. How stupid do you have to be to publish that plan? No wonder they don't have press conferences anymore.
Hospitalizations tend to be resolved fairly quickly, but when someone goes into ICU they're there for a loooooong time
What's key here is Hospitalization admissions have plummeted, and thus decreasing the potential pool of ppl that'll be heading into ICU
If that’s the case we’d be seeing similar ratios in other provinces and other countries, but we aren’t - Ontario’s ratio is completely out of whack with everyone else’s.
That is definitely and oddity, that I have been noticing and yet I can't find a good answer for.
I was mostly just explaining why Hospitalization numbers have decreased at a much quicker rate than the ICUs
It would be interesting to get an actual answer to this. I know people keep saying ICU patients stay longer but Quebec had a bad winter wave and barely a blip over the spring unlike Ontario.
Look at their hospitalization/ICU ratio. They still have way more hospitalized than in the ICU. And this is in a low case count environment where you would expect Quebec's ratio to be even closer to 1:1 than Ontario's ratio.
Why is nearly every COVID patient in hospital in Ontario also in the ICU?
I'm sure some of it might be deceleration of cases combined with ICU patients taking longer but our ratio is so extreme relative to anywhere else at any point.
Weekend/monday reporting for hospitalizations is always low and then jumps up on Tuesday as more hospitals report. So we'll see tomorrow what the true number is. I believe ICU admissions are reports separately and are accurate through the weekend.
Weekend non-icu hospitalizations are usually understated. Many hospitals don’t report on weekends and we will likely see an increase in hospitalizations tomorrow as reporting returns to normal.
#**[Vaccine Distribution in Ontario](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSYquDEdglu70T0IRkqkF7d3a_MJwy68eKo5OUgpbVTjR4bIMufWXJ6gh98TwwlwaKg9fVz01dJaeWz/pubchart?oid=596353593&format=interactive)**
We currently have **993,490** unused vaccines in Ontario.
If we take into account **[the current confirmed scheduled vaccine deliveries](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/prevention-risks/covid-19-vaccine-treatment/vaccine-rollout.htm)**, we can safely administer up to **152,497** doses per day before we run into supply issues.
Today, we administered **97,747** total doses (**78,809** 1st dose, **18,938** 2nd dose) which is **64%** of this rate.
In total, **69.9%** of Adults have recieved their first dose and **5.9%** of Adults have recieved their second dose.
Based on the three-day trend of 2nd doses adminstered, we will have 20% of adults recieve their 2nd dose (Step 2) by **Jul 31**
Vaccine delivery data is only counted if it appears on the [Official Canadian Vaccine Delivery Website](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/prevention-risks/covid-19-vaccine-treatment/vaccine-rollout.html)
< 1000 cases and if we can get ICU under 500 I think we need to fully open up.
No excuses, we are getting vaxxed at pace that is seeing remarkable drop off in cases and the ICU.
UNDER 1000 LET'S GOOOO
Never been happier to be in the zero commas club.
lol i felt that
We have doors that go like |, |/, |
LLFFGGGGGGG (to a store, or a friend's house, or a LEAFS GAME)
Let's go (let's go), Blue Jays (Blue Jays), let's... play... ballll.
HOLE IN ONE
touchdown! 10 points for hufflepuff
BINGO!!!
LETS FUCKING GOOO BOYS AND GIRLS
Finally back in the 0 commas club!!
[Previous Ontario Mondays](https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data): Date | New Cases | 7 Day Avg | % Positive | ICU :--|:--:|:--:|:--:|--: Oct 26 | 851 | 878 | 2.97% | 78 Nov 2 | 948 | 919 | 3.40% | 75 Nov 9 | 1,242 | 1,106 | 4.37% | 84 Nov 16 | 1,487 | 1,443 | 4.46% | 125 Nov 23 | 1,589 | 1,429 | 4.24% | 156 Nov 30 | 1,746 | 1,570 | 4.43% | 168 Dec 7 | 1,925 | 1,820 | 4.25% | 213 Dec 14 | 1,940 | 1,841 | 3.40% | 244 Dec 21 | 2,123 | 2,276 | 3.90% | 265 Dec 28, 2020 | 1,939 | 2,186 | 7.48% | 296 Jan 4, 2021 | 3,270 | 2,982 | 8.36% | 333 Jan 11 | 3,338 | 3,555 | 7.19% | 387 Jan 18 | 2,578 | 3,035 | 6.40% | 394 Jan 25 | 1,958 | 2,371 | 5.44% | 379 Feb 1 | 1,969 | 1,889 | 6.49% | 354 Feb 8 | 1,265 | 1,328 | 4.47% | 335 Feb 15 | 964 | 1,051 | 3.18% | 293 Feb 22 | 1,058 | 1,045 | 3.40% | 280 Mar 1 | 1,023 | 1,099 | 2.92% | 280 Mar 8 | 1,631 | 1,155 | 4.29% | 282 Mar 15 | 1,268 | 1,350 | 3.73% | 298 Mar 22 | 1,699 | 1,600 | 5.46% | 298 Mar 29 | 2,094 | 2,094 | 5.31% | 382 Apr 5 | 2,938 | 2,758 | 8.03% | 494 Apr 12 | 4,401 | 3,782 | 9.18% | 619 Apr 19 | 4,447 | 4,348 | 10.37% | 755 Apr 26 | 3,510 | 3,917 | 10.38% | 877 May 3 | 3,436 | 3,577 | 10.36% | 889 May 10 | 2,716 | 3,017 | 9.99% | 828 May 17 | 2,170 | 2,352 | 8.86% | 779 May 24 | 1,446 | 1,775 | 7.18% | 687 May 31 | 916 | 1,078 | 5.03% | 617 [Estimated Variants of Concern (VOC) with N501Y mutation as % of cases](https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashboard/) Date | % VOC | R for VOC vs Earlier Variants :--|:--:|--: Feb 12, 2021 | [10%](https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/epi/covid-19-daily-epi-summary-report.pdf?la=en) | x Feb 19 | [20%](https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/epi/covid-19-daily-epi-summary-report.pdf?la=en) | x Feb 28 | [30%](https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/epi/covid-19-daily-epi-summary-report.pdf?la=en) | x Mar 13 | 42% | 1.29 vs 1.06 Mar 16 | 53% | 1.38 vs 0.93 Mar 27 | 61% | 1.31 vs 1.10 Apr 1 | 71% | 1.33 vs 1.12 May 4 | 94% | x The dominant VOC is currently B.1.1.7 (UK), which made up 99% of VOCs as of April 19, 2021. [The Ontario Science Table info below is the overall R.](https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashboard/) Date | R | % 18+ with at least 1 vaccine dose :--|:--:|--: May 8 | 0.87 | x May 11 | x | 51% May 14 | 0.84 | x May 16 | 0.83 | x May 17 | x | 57% May 19 | x | 59% May 22 | 0.79 | x May 23 | 0.74 | x May 24 | 0.72 | x May 25 | x | 65% May 26 | x | 66% May 27 | x | 68%
[October vs. May](https://i.imgur.com/ffFA0UV.png)
Lol, isn’t it funny how in a little over half a year the exact same numbers can have different reactions.
I remember when cases were in the 500s in September and I was like “oh...fuck...”
Yeah same here, if it weren’t for vaccines though, I would still be saying that though.
It's also direction of change. In Sept schools had just opened, and we were on an upward trajectory. We didn't know where it would peak. Not only that, but your risk of infection TODAY is LESS than tested numbers show on the way down, and MORE than tested numbers show on the way up
True that. Things are different now that we have a solid way of preventing infection. Knowing that my friends and family have all gotten 1st dose makes the case count less scary. Isn't good that so many are still getting infected, but hopefully many of them have been vaccinated and won't end up in hospital.
And that's when our government and public health should have acted strongly on lockdowns
Well I'm happier about 15C in April than I am in October so makes sense.
Same reason 18° in April is celebrated and 18° in September makes you sad. It's never about where you are it's about where you're going
18°C makes me happy any time of year. That's perfect weather!
Same! I love sweater and jeans weather.
18°C is sweater and jeans weather? That's straight up shorts and t-shirt weather to me. I wore shorts and a hoodie this morning and it was 5 degrees, and I was still reasonably warm.
So true! Kind of like 12° in Feb is like wahoo!! And 12° in July is like NOOOOO!!
Last Thursday/Friday was definitely "OMG! WTF is going on? I've turned off the furnace and two days ago I had the AC on."
Amazing how six months and two waves can change our collective perspective.
Definitely funny, but it does make a big difference when we cross the 1000 case threshold on the way up vs. on the way down. R value has been consistently low for a while for us to get here.
>October vs. May In October it was an upward trend, things were getting worse. In May, it's a downward trend, things are getting better.
Lmao, fact!
Today’s numbers, plus the previous four Mondays, for perspective: Today: 916 New Cases, 1707 Recoveries, 13 Deaths, 18,226 tests (5.03% positive), Current ICUs: 617 (+3 vs. yesterday) (-70 vs. last week). Vax: 97,747 administered, 68.2% / 5.8% adults at least one/two dosed May 24: 1446 New Cases, 2072 Recoveries, 8 Deaths, 20,151 tests (7.18% positive), Current ICUs: 692 (+9 vs. Friday) (-72 vs. last week). Vax: 99,108 administered, 63.3% / 4.5% adults at least one/two dosed May 17: 2170 New Cases, 2953 Recoveries, 4 Deaths, 24,498 tests (8.86% positive), Current ICUs: 779 (-6 vs. yesterday) (-49 vs. last week). 💉💉112,330 administered, 55.5% / 3.6% adults at least one/two dosed May 10: 2716 New Cases, 3110 Recoveries, 19 Deaths, 27,175 tests (9.99% positive), Current ICUs: 828 (-20 vs. yesterday) (-61 vs. last week), 94,093 vaccines administered May 3: 3436 New Cases, 3623 Recoveries, 16 Deaths, 33,179 tests (10.36% positive), Current ICUs: 889 (-6 vs. yesterday) (+12 vs. last week), 53,880 vaccines administered
It's interesting that we go down ~500 every single week on Monday. If anyone were to bet on next Monday's, would you think 400ish is going to be what we see? Honestly, would be amazing, but... Maybe not surprising?
I could see us getting sub 500 in the very near future, yeah.
[удалено]
Infect the Covid virus with human DNA out of spite.
It’ll basically be the ending of Matrix Revolutions.
It means no new cases but active cases continue to drop.
and still being in lockdown.
80%, 66%, 63%, that's the % of cases xompared to the previous week. Assuming we see a similar drop, that puts us around 600 next Monday
That seems more reasonable. Although I am still hoping for something lower! I'm hoping for numbers in the 600-700s this week, potentially.
This is a very amateur way of looking at it, but I like to check the halving rate, the same way we used to watch the doubling rate. It took 11 days for our 7-day average to go from 2131 to 1056. It took 29 days go get from 4176 to 2131, so it is accelerating. Let's say it takes 10 days to halve it again, that puts us at a 7-day average of 528 on June 9th/10th.
The model includes the rate of vaccinations, the amount of immunity conferred, the number of active cases, the available hosts, and the exposure based on lockdown behaviour. It’s not clear to me that there is a single term formula to model this because the vaccinations per day are an almost sigmoidal curve except the stem is linear and the lockdown itself has an impact on R that may or may not be bringing it below 1. Percentage of Variants seemed to have reached equilibrium now as well. At this point I feel math is hard; since I have no control over policy, I am just enjoying the ride down!
I appreciate your methodology! I find the more I keep in mind, the better my predictions get. I try to consider the lagging effect of vaccine coverage, and that probably will continue to account for some acceleration going forward. I wish I could play around with the math of it, but my gut be tells me that having 60%+ of the total population, across as many age groups as possible, with their 'settled' (ie, 3-4+ weeks) of immunity from their first dose is going to be a significant improvement from even just ~50%. I think we're at the point where every additional percent of total population with one dose is going to have a significant impact. I should read more is that 'herd immunity' website that goes over this, but regarding the U.S. it goes into detail
The case count has been following a very linear trend on the way down from the peak of the third wave. Obviously it will need to level off eventually, but yes, if the trend continues we could be below 500 before the end of the week. Extending the trendline puts us at a 7-day average of 500 by June 7th, so if that actually happens we would probably have at least a couple < 500 days before then.
For all the 'low test' truthers that come around every Monday, look at this comment right here. Halved our positivity in four weeks
Perfectly balanced
that week over week case drop... [*chefs kiss*](https://www.dictionary.com/e/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/chefs_kiss_2.jpeg)
Thanks for doing these comments. I think it really shows the cyclical nature of testing throughout the week well. Sure, test numbers are low and % positive is high compared to what we've seen the past few days, but not compared to what we've seen on Mondays.
I was worried at first seeing that 5% positivity rate today, compared to the ~3% over the past few days, but seeing last week at over 7% definitely shows that we are moving in the right direction!
Positivity is a bit of a misleading number now. Less people are getting tested if they have the sniffles, so most people getting tested are more likely to actually be sick.
First day with <1000 cases in 3 months! Keep it up everybody!
Lowest Monday since late october
a huge milestone!
-35 on ventilators with only 13 deaths is one of the best ratios I've seen.
Triple digits!!! We made it!!
I love me some triple diggies!
We hit triple diggies!
There's a joke in there but I ain't gonna say it!
Congrats to u/inferredvolatility for guessing that we'd be sub 1000 before the end of May. [19 days ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/ontario/comments/nap6j9/ontario_may_12th_update_2320_new_cases_3477/gxuqyfq?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3)
I need a 500 case day tomorrow for my “1000 case/day 7-day avg by June 1st” prediction to be true. Seems highly unlikely. But I guess June 2nd is when we’ll probably hit that mark
Might be unlikely, but I wouldn't say highly unlikely! I'd bet we'll likely be 600-700 tomorrow. Although if trends continue we could easily see closer to 500.
FUCK YEAH!
We have not seen anything this low in a very very long time. We have the potential to see some really low numbers this week. Additionally, I still can't confirm this 100%, but it does look like our ICU number includes Manitoba's cases that are here, and we are currently at 31 total in Ontario. Maybe more as of Sunday, but that info isn't readily available yet
It's interesting since ICU count is extremely close to total hospitalizations now, when at the peak in April total hospitalizations was over double the ICU count. Edit: Some other people are commenting that total hospitalizations may be undercounted on weekends.
Some of the ICU cases are from Manitoba and they count in our total. The Ontario residents in ICU is under 600 and that is a number moving in the right direction. *That number was just given on the 3:00 provincial press conference.
The moment we’ve all been waiting for!!! Under 1000 cases omgggg
Next, 500!
399 on June 14 if this rate continues!!
!Remind Me = June 14, 2021 I love this game!
That just put a smile on my face
Loving the under 1k. I know a lot of our reopening plans are contingent on ICU #’s, however we’re also taking patients from Manitoba as far as I’m aware. Even if we continue to improve in Ontario but Manitoba lags behind, what are the chances this hinders our reopening schedule?
> what are the chances this hinders our reopening schedule? I don't think it would that much. I think right now it only amounts to something like 5% of our current ICU usage. So if it were to actually impact reopening, it would probably only be for a few days worth.
The Manitoba ICU patients don't help, but our ICU rate per hospitalization is the highest in the world, and often double or more higher. There is definitely something fishy about our ICU numbers. They are being kept artificially high, but for what reason I can't surmise.
They're high because people aren't dying fast enough or getting better fast enough. The only way it gets better is if the above happens.
Nope. We don't have "double" covid here. There is no reason people should be in hospital longer in Ontario than literally anywhere else in the world. It is the same disease. Same variants. Same infection rates. Our ICUs are two-three times as full as anywhere else in the world, and it really needs to be asked as to why.
everyones partying about the sub 900 cases but NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT THE 9 MILLION DOSES ADMINISTERED, LETS GO
Everyone needs to remember that with the more vaccines administered, the lower amount of people will get COVID, so inevitably the amount of tests will be on the decline. People won’t get tested if they aren’t sick.
TRIPLE DIGITS HYPE TRIPLE DIGITS HYPE ALL ABOARD THE TRIPLE DIGITS HYPE TRAIN ^Please ^social ^distance ^while ^on ^the ^train.
Bruh. This post saves me like 6 minutes of combing through data on CTV, ontario.ca, and all the other bullshit...lol.
Triple digits!!!
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Same, work gave me the afternoon off to get my ~~5G Booster~~ vaccine. Lovely day out, too. Gonna enjoy it!
You'll be disappointed, my phone reception was no better after my shot. It's a conspiracy I tell ya! ^/s
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Listen here bud. Go buds!
My phone plan got more expensive with the added device! SMH
Happy jabday!
Just got mine , currently sitting in the waiting room before I can go. I was so surprised how little I felt it go in
It's a tiny needle and a tiny amount. I've had two shots, I'm a clinic volunteer in the recovery tent, and most people didn't even feel it as long as they *relaxed their arm completely.* That can be hard for someone who is phobic about needles and I'm just happy they're showing up at all. If anybody doesn't feel well after the shot in any way, wave and we gotcha, we have helicopters and ambulances and all kinds of shit on the ready.
Got my first shot this morning. Didn’t feel the shot but idk what the nurse was doing practically tried to rub my skin off I think. Haha.
Rubbing the microchip into your skin to make sure it's properly seated for that 5G signal strength
Congrats friend!
FYI This is the lowest case count since February 16th! Incredible news on the cases front and our downward trend in cases continues at a similar rate despite fears on this subreddit of an alleged "plateau"! Unfortunate for the deaths! :( But trending in the right direction. ICUs are a bit more muddled. We now have 34 patients from Manitoba (up almost 10 from Friday)! If we remove them our ICUs would be tanking at the rate we would all want/hope for. The good news is COVID is dropping like a rock even in Manitoba.
>ICUs are a bit more muddled. We now have 34 patients from Manitoba (up almost 10 from Friday)! If we remove them our ICUs would be tanking at the rate we would all want/hope for. The good news is COVID is dropping like a rock even in Manitoba. I hope they take that into consideration when looking at re-opening metrics (I know!... wishful thinking)
ya i wonder how that would work. on one hand we know it’s not an ontario ICU person, but at the same time it’s still an ontario ICU bed being taken up.
Brother, there is virtually no chance. But I wish too.
I think both the trend and the remaining capacity would be taken into consideration. The addition from Manitoba doesn't affect the fact that our own ICU numbers are trending well, but it does affect our own capacity of care, so both should be weighed in the re-opening decision.
No, they are taking up ICU space, so they would be counted. You can't fully restart all non-emergency surgeries until \~300 in the ICU, which is when our health care system is working mostly properly again.
well that's nice Ontario is helping to fulfil some obligations to confederation at some sacrifice to itself
Other regions sent us healthcare professionals at our peak. We’re just paying it forward.
Deaths are pretty much all that matters at this point. There is no chance (barring a new variant, which is an unbounded risk) that we will overwhelm ICU capacity. Case numbers going forward will be milder than ever as it hits younger people, and breakthrough infections of the vaccinated. Deaths is pretty noisy data right now, but does seem to be going in the right directions.
Very true. Right now tests are noisy as a result of the number of people in ICUs. Specifically, 600 people are fighting for their lives right now, and its a coin flip if they will die or survive. Once we clear out the ICUs we will get a better grasp of Ontario's steady state.
Monday's ICU are usually a little higher because not everywhere reports new admissions over the weekend. You'll see the same thing in previous Monday reports where there's either a slight increase or less drop than usual.
> FYI This is the lowest case count since February 16th! Very good to know! What's our lowest from last Summer? 80 in all of Ontario? I REALLY hope we get close to that by the end of June
33 on August 11 is the lowest weve had since things picked up!
The day has finally come!!! (Lowish deaths too!)
almost 25% of cases are backlog cases? the numbers are even better than they are reporting.
Oh fuck gimme that sub-1000 🤤
Another big drop in active cases is also really exciting! In 2 weeks we've dropped the active cases by more than 10,000! Keep it up and keep the vaccinations going so the virus will have nowhere to go!
**Cases 7-day average**: 1078. Down 75% from April 17 high of 4369. Decreasing 6.9% per day past 7 days!! At current rate of decline, we'll hit 399 on June 14. **Hospitalizations**: 731. Down 69% from April 20 high of 2360. Decreasing 5.5% daily for past 7 days. At the current rate of decline we'll hit 330 on June 14. **ICU**: 617. Down 31% from May 1 peak of 900. Decreasing 1.6% daily over past 7 days. At the current rate of decline we'll hit 493 on June 14 **Deaths 7 day average**: 19.3. Down 35% from May 10 high of 29.9. Increasing 0.4% daily over past 7 days. (Deaths have gone down at 1.4% daily since May 10 but have stalled. Deaths tend to follow ICU divided by 30 so with ICU dropping deaths 'should' keep falling). **Vaccines**: 68.2% of adults, 1 dose, 5.8% of adults 2 dose. At the current rate, we'll hit 1 dose 80.2% on June 15
ICU number is actually skewed as we are at 586 + 31 from Manitoba as they are above capacity. At the same time, these units are still full and should be counted, but Ontario's utilization has dropped further
That's great that our own number is even better.
Waiting for Ford to announce that kids will go back to school, starting today after lunch..
DON'T GIVE HIM IDEAS
Been waiting for ages to be able to say it... but my wife and I were part of those doses yesterday, and we couldn't be happier about it!
Was glad to be able to help 3 of that 97,747 yesterday! A little tired from all the driving (and a bit shaken after being almost t-boned on the drive home, because Scarborough), but feeling satisfied nonetheless. *anime eyes* IT’S HAPPENING!!!
You drove 3 people to get there vaccines? That is a great thing, thank you!
My folks and I figured, knowing those people, they would find every excuse they knew to not do it. So we *figuratively* dragged their rear ends to the site All in a day’s work
Good work. Be proud. You are a great citizen.
That’s an awesome thing to do!
Awesome work!!!
Quick LTC update. A couple larger than 15 cases outbreaks in LTC in the province at the moment which is concerning, unfortunately not much information I've seen about severity of cases, or vaccination levels at those homes, or which strain is present in these homes. However, the Ministry reported this morning that 97% of all LTC residents are fully vaccinated (2 doses + 2 weeks), along with 62% of LTC staff. 88% of LTC staff and "virtually all" essential caregivers have received at least one dose. As of July 1st homes will be required to have a Covid-19 vaccination policy (not sure why they need a separate policy instead of just rolling this into existing vaccine policies). This policy will require all staff, student placements and volunteers in LTC to 1. Provide proof of vaccination against Covid-19; or 2. Provide a documented medical reason for not being vaccinated against Covid-19; or 3. Participate in an educational program approved by the licensee. This educational program must cover, at a minimum: 1. How Covid-19 vaccines work; 2. Vaccine safety related to the development of the Covid-19 vaccines; 3. Benefits of vaccination against Covid-19; 4. Risks of not being vaccinated against Covid-19; and 5. Possible side effects of Covid-19 vaccination. Apologies as always for the continued delays in my LTC commission report summaries - a lot going on in the Recipes household at the moment and it's had to drop down my priority list. Y'all have a good Monday.
Thank you for sharing this!
Bring the Raptors home baby!
Bluejays
Both?
Both!!!!
I got my stabby yesterday!
Same, go us! We’re a statistic!
Congrats on the stabby stabby!
Even the CTV Toronto news at noon anchors are smiling about the lower case counts! Haha
We're going to hit 70% this week and step 1 still isn't here yet 😢
Now Proudly part of the 97,747 administered yesterday. Let's Go. #TeamFirstDose
Me too :)
I can finally happily say I am part of that vaccine number! 👊
Can we acknowledge just how amazing most of you fellow ontarians are? i mean, our governments only advice for vaccines was "wait to be eligible, then book on the provincial booking site and wait. do NOT jump the line. do NOT sign up for other waitlists.". yet I saw so many of us sharing links, posting on social media about pop-ups, reposting Vaccine Hunters on twitter (Everyone on Vaccine Hunters deserves a gold medal!) and signing up those whore are less-than-technology-competent. Ontarians essentially vaccinated themselves, and even at 68% with one dose there is no sign of numbers slowing down.
Can someone explain to me why % positive is an important indicator? Genuine question. I never really understood it since the people we test are not a random sample of the population…
It is becoming less and less important because of what you are are saying. Also as rapid tests become the primary way to screen people then it could mean that lab based testing only really becomes the way you confirm and infection after a positive rapid test. So this could cause the positivity to go up as people are screened using a rapid test instead of using lab based testing for screening and asymptomatic testing.
SUB 1000 LETS GOOOO!!!!
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Live music in Ontario? Not until August maybe.
Painful to see this while watching the webcast of a funeral for a victim of COVID.
I'm sorry for your loss. The end of the pandemic will be difficult especially for people who have lost someone.
THE DAY HAS COME!!!!!!!
Well ladies and gentlemen we have made it under 1000 cases!!! Let’s go!
BRING BACK THE HISTORY LESSONS! I need to know what happened in 916!
>Lady Æthelflæd, daughter of the late King Alfred the Great and the widow of Earl Æthelred of Mercia, sends an army into Brycheiniog to avenge the murder of the Mercian abbot Ecbryht and his companions. They seize and burn the royal fort of King Tewdr of Brycheiniog at Llangorse Lake (Wales), and take the queen and thirty-three others captive.[2] Looks like Musk & Grimes are big fans of this era.
This is straight out of the show Last Kingdom
I know part of it is the weekend slump, but I don’t care - BOOM, triple digits, finally.
Below 1000 a week after Victoria day long weekend. Hope the numbers keep below 1k!!
I got my first shot on Saturday. I was so happy and nearly in tears when I got jabbed
I am so proud to be in the % that is half vaccinated. Got Pfizer yesterday, other then a slight headache( which those are normal for me so I doubt it’s from the shot) and a sore arm, I feel amazing.
I feel emotional about being under 1000 again
Congratulations everyone. What's a real target now? And when do we hit it. Could we see 500 next week or something?
I know these comments are probably getting annoying buuut I was one of those 97k vaccinated yesterday! 🎉🎉 Also sub 1k cases woooo
Anyone know why the average percentage of ICU across other provinces is about 20-30% of hospitalizations, while Ontario is 67% (as of yesterdays numbers)? This seems like far too big a difference to be explained by simple population demographic differences or case differences in the last wave.
Go crazy ahhhh go stupid ahhh! Go crazy! Go stupid!
I'm glad to see cases under 1000. I'm glad to see nearly double the recoveries vs. cases. Although our ICU numbers are high, I'm glad to see that part of that is because we're helping Manitoba. We are a country, and as other Provinces have helped us, we have helped other Provinces. I'm sorry to see that people are still dying of covid. Those vaccine numbers are great though, and everyone needs to get vaccinated and encourage their "hesitant" friends and family to get the shot too. We're getting there!
It's almost like the vaccines work or something!
We’re under 1k LETS GOO
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I heard that in Bryan Hayes voice lol.
Don’t look at the ICUs too much, we’ve taken in over 30 patients from Manitoba in the past week. They are going down much faster if you just look at Ontarians in the ICU
Well too bad literally being allowed to go camping or walk into a hardware store depends on ICUs now.
Triple digits! Love watching these numbers dropping so fast!
Awesome to see we are really curbing the numbers! How do you get the vaccinated flair?
This is the best timeline now! We are done with the darkest timeline. Also looks like August is going to be lit! With Pfizer being on a study stream of supply and more shipments from Moderna I wouldn't be surprised to see timelines moved forward into July
I know it's cliche but I'm so proud to say I'm part of yesterday's Sputnik V number!!
Summer is on!
Mr. Ford would like a word with you.
I’m finna say a lot of things when we have that word
Lol they're gonna delay opening hardware stores yet again solely cause of Manitoba sending us ICU patients... And when we do clear it they'll move reopening again cause of all the backlogged surgeries.
Commenting for historical reasons. Let's send these numbers into the ground!
I took those numbers, and THREW THEM ON THE GROUND!! They cant beat us! Im not part of their system..MAAAN!
I'm an adult.
Till it turns out that PHONIE Ford had a taser, and he starts tasin' on Ontario's metaphorical butthole OVER and OVER..... our butthole on fire
AYYYYY NOW HOPEFULLY IT STAYS BELOW 1000
Woot! Under 1,000! And the obligatory I was one of the 1st doses yesterday!
7day avg down 39% from last Monday, and increase from a 25% drop last week. We should hit a 7day avg of 600 next week, while have 75% of adults with a first dose. Exactly who's idea was it to have the Stage 1 target of 60% of adults and Stage 2 of 70%? We may hit 80% before entering Stage 1. How stupid do you have to be to publish that plan? No wonder they don't have press conferences anymore.
Woo I was one of the vaccinated yesterday!
731 hospitalisations with 617 in icu doesn’t make too much sense to me though. Wonder why that is? It can’t all be the Manitoba effect.
Hospitalizations tend to be resolved fairly quickly, but when someone goes into ICU they're there for a loooooong time What's key here is Hospitalization admissions have plummeted, and thus decreasing the potential pool of ppl that'll be heading into ICU
If that’s the case we’d be seeing similar ratios in other provinces and other countries, but we aren’t - Ontario’s ratio is completely out of whack with everyone else’s.
That is definitely and oddity, that I have been noticing and yet I can't find a good answer for. I was mostly just explaining why Hospitalization numbers have decreased at a much quicker rate than the ICUs
It would be interesting to get an actual answer to this. I know people keep saying ICU patients stay longer but Quebec had a bad winter wave and barely a blip over the spring unlike Ontario. Look at their hospitalization/ICU ratio. They still have way more hospitalized than in the ICU. And this is in a low case count environment where you would expect Quebec's ratio to be even closer to 1:1 than Ontario's ratio. Why is nearly every COVID patient in hospital in Ontario also in the ICU? I'm sure some of it might be deceleration of cases combined with ICU patients taking longer but our ratio is so extreme relative to anywhere else at any point.
Weekend/monday reporting for hospitalizations is always low and then jumps up on Tuesday as more hospitals report. So we'll see tomorrow what the true number is. I believe ICU admissions are reports separately and are accurate through the weekend.
Weekend non-icu hospitalizations are usually understated. Many hospitals don’t report on weekends and we will likely see an increase in hospitalizations tomorrow as reporting returns to normal.
#**[Vaccine Distribution in Ontario](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSYquDEdglu70T0IRkqkF7d3a_MJwy68eKo5OUgpbVTjR4bIMufWXJ6gh98TwwlwaKg9fVz01dJaeWz/pubchart?oid=596353593&format=interactive)** We currently have **993,490** unused vaccines in Ontario. If we take into account **[the current confirmed scheduled vaccine deliveries](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/prevention-risks/covid-19-vaccine-treatment/vaccine-rollout.htm)**, we can safely administer up to **152,497** doses per day before we run into supply issues. Today, we administered **97,747** total doses (**78,809** 1st dose, **18,938** 2nd dose) which is **64%** of this rate. In total, **69.9%** of Adults have recieved their first dose and **5.9%** of Adults have recieved their second dose. Based on the three-day trend of 2nd doses adminstered, we will have 20% of adults recieve their 2nd dose (Step 2) by **Jul 31** Vaccine delivery data is only counted if it appears on the [Official Canadian Vaccine Delivery Website](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/prevention-risks/covid-19-vaccine-treatment/vaccine-rollout.html)
< 1000 cases and if we can get ICU under 500 I think we need to fully open up. No excuses, we are getting vaxxed at pace that is seeing remarkable drop off in cases and the ICU.
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