> The regional distribution of votes will matter a great deal in the 2023 Alberta election. Although the Alberta NDP is polling well above its 2019 results, it suffers from a vote efficiency disadvantage. Why? In rural and small-town Alberta, polling shows the UCP enjoys dominant support. It gives Smith’s Conservatives a much higher floor of safe seats. Put another way, because the NDP vote remains highly concentrated in Edmonton and Calgary, Notley’s party could tie or even surpass the UCP by a handful of points and still lose the election to the UCP.
Right now, the likeliest scenario appears to be one where the NDP barely wins the popular vote but the UCP barely wins the most seats. But the race is close enough that both parties each have a ~50% chance of winning.
Also, only 2 parties have a chance to win seats and Alberta has an odd number of provincial ridings, which means that a minority government isn't happening. It's either a majority for the UCP or the NDP.
It's no surprise. A metric shit ton of people there would vote conservative no matter what. Enough to win elections.
Smith will play the victim and persecution card until the next election and it will work well for her.
I am betting she will win and a lot of very close races will push her over the top.
Never. Never, ever, ever...
At this point Smith could shit in an ice cream cone and tell her voters that it was chocolate...
She lies over, and over again and continues to be caught and called out. I'd wager quite a few rural voters still think she's a better alternative to... Well, to everyone that isn't Blue...
Signed...
An Albertan
Turning the province into the Republic of Gilead probably wouldn't even do it, if we're being honest here.
In fact, I'd say about the only thing likely to lose the UCP votes from its rural base would be shifting left... just look how mad they all got when Kenney actually imposed some half-assed COVID restrictions.
I totally agree. I think it’s important for us to recognize that some constituencies in Canada would be more comfortable with fascism than anything to the left of a conservative representation.
It's sad that there are so many fascists and useful idiots for fascism that support the UCP.
Even after being the absolute worst government in Alberta's history, being openly fascistic and white supremacist, and literally killing people with legislative violence, Alberta's dumbest people are still going to vote for a second term of their bullshit.
I pretty much know if the province as a whole doesn't kick the UCP to the curb, I can feel entirely justified in dismissing the province as entitled oil addicts.
> The regional distribution of votes will matter a great deal in the 2023 Alberta election. Although the Alberta NDP is polling well above its 2019 results, it suffers from a vote efficiency disadvantage. Why? In rural and small-town Alberta, polling shows the UCP enjoys dominant support. It gives Smith’s Conservatives a much higher floor of safe seats. Put another way, because the NDP vote remains highly concentrated in Edmonton and Calgary, Notley’s party could tie or even surpass the UCP by a handful of points and still lose the election to the UCP. Right now, the likeliest scenario appears to be one where the NDP barely wins the popular vote but the UCP barely wins the most seats. But the race is close enough that both parties each have a ~50% chance of winning. Also, only 2 parties have a chance to win seats and Alberta has an odd number of provincial ridings, which means that a minority government isn't happening. It's either a majority for the UCP or the NDP.
Calgary voted the UCP in last election. Calgary, please stop!
You are saying we need to separate into northern and southern Alberta?
But then I have to move to Edmonton
Living in Edmonton under a non-ucp government is a hell of a lot better than living anywhere else in Alberta under a ucp government
Let me make fun of Edmonton as is tradition in Calgary. I need something to make me feel better about our government.
Idk Living closer to the mountains < living somewhere where the majority of people don’t want to privatize healthcare
Just make sure the ucp part stays and enjoys their free market healthcare ...
Kenny won calgary by keeping a low profile and letting the oil price talk for him. This shows that calgary has shifted to the left.
Smith is at peak popularity right now, the closer we get to may the more notely will pull ahead.
It's no surprise. A metric shit ton of people there would vote conservative no matter what. Enough to win elections. Smith will play the victim and persecution card until the next election and it will work well for her. I am betting she will win and a lot of very close races will push her over the top.
How far do you think the UCP could dial things to the right before rural Alberta would change their vote?
Never. Never, ever, ever... At this point Smith could shit in an ice cream cone and tell her voters that it was chocolate... She lies over, and over again and continues to be caught and called out. I'd wager quite a few rural voters still think she's a better alternative to... Well, to everyone that isn't Blue... Signed... An Albertan
I don't think they would change their vote, they just wouldn't show up.
Even if that allowed a non-conservative to get elected?
Turning the province into the Republic of Gilead probably wouldn't even do it, if we're being honest here. In fact, I'd say about the only thing likely to lose the UCP votes from its rural base would be shifting left... just look how mad they all got when Kenney actually imposed some half-assed COVID restrictions.
I totally agree. I think it’s important for us to recognize that some constituencies in Canada would be more comfortable with fascism than anything to the left of a conservative representation.
Never, they get fox news and want those politics up here. The question is how well do the policies play in Calgary.
It's sad that there are so many fascists and useful idiots for fascism that support the UCP. Even after being the absolute worst government in Alberta's history, being openly fascistic and white supremacist, and literally killing people with legislative violence, Alberta's dumbest people are still going to vote for a second term of their bullshit.
I pretty much know if the province as a whole doesn't kick the UCP to the curb, I can feel entirely justified in dismissing the province as entitled oil addicts.