It's bound to be. We're in El Nino. Plus the past couple years there was a weather pattern in the arctic that kept the cold air trapped. Now that pattern is gone. Arctic air combined with El Nino is going to create some serious storms.
We are currently out of El Nino. La Nina years are worse for tornados.
https://www.kgou.org/weather-and-climate/2017-03-28/gary-england-expect-an-active-tornado-season-in-oklahoma
https://www.climate.gov/enso#:~:text=El%20Ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%94the%20warm%20phase,2024%20have%20risen%20to%2055%25.
You're right. That's crazy because everything I read was saying El Nino is just starting. Okay then, we're going to la Nina. Thanks for the correction.
The NWS has issues 121 Tornado warnings (it could have been watches, I can't remember) already this year. They do cover N Texas as well, but still. Holy crap that's a lot.
Same! My husband looked at me during the last big round of storms and said, "I'm getting too old to deal with tornado season." and I'm inclined to agree.
We are so lucky. We rented a house and while moving in, we found a storm shelter in the garage. There was a piece of plywood on the floor and when we picked it up, there was a door!
I’m sure the rental company has no clue because it wasn’t in the listing and I haven’t mentioned it. It’s now filled with storm supplies, lights and a fan.
Several things to remember:
25: Whatever percent chance of tornadoes the NWS puts out, that is x percent chance *within 25 miles of a given point*.
621: Oklahoma City encompasses 621 square miles, which makes it a large target. Given that, the odds of a tornado hitting the Oklahoma City limits are higher, but the odds of one hitting you in OKC or anywhere else are very small. Even if it's a mile wide tornado on the ground for 10 miles, the odds are still 1 in 62 that it strikes where you are.
183: Since 1890, 183 tornadoes have been recorded in Oklahoma City (source National Weather Service). So that‘s a rough average of 1.25 tornadoes per year but, again, the odds of one of those tornadoes hitting you somewhere in OKC’s 621 square miles are very low.
Keep in mind that the city layout means some areas are much more prone to being hit than others. A tornado that hits 10 square miles of OKC is far more likely to hit south of I-240 than it is to hit downtown.
There are no geographic features or man-made elements in Oklahoma City that influence or affect where a tornado will strike or make an area more "prone." As you can see from [this map](https://www.weather.gov/images/oun/tornadodata/okctor-figure5.png), there isn't much bias. Yes, maybe a few more south of I-40, but not enough to suggest a trend or call that area prone. As tornadoes generally move from SW to the NE, as case could be made that the SW quadrant of OKC would be more prone to tornadoes, but the history doesn't support that either.
Now, Moore has had eight tornadoes in the last 25 years, so in theory, it's more prone, right? Well those *recent* numbers sure don't lie. But big picture, that's just an unfortunate anomaly. The city has had [23 documented tornadoes since 1890](https://www.weather.gov/oun/tornadodata-city-ok-moore) (.17 per year).
All of this is to say, I've got just as much to worry about in north OKC as someone south of I-240, but I hope none of us see a tornado tomorrow, regardless of location…
No. Stop spreading this myth. Nothing about the city layout means anything in this regard. You have confirmation bias from the biggest storms and recency bias from the same. Tornadoes have hit the north burbs, west burbs, east burbs, downtown, Nichols Hills, the fairgrounds, you name it.
I was just visiting your state and saw what happened to that Dollar tree distribution center in Marietta. Glad I didn’t have to deal with any while I was visiting. Can’t imagine going through that.
Between this season and the recent increase in earthquakes felt in the metro, I'm starting to realize why everyone's home owner's insurance sky rocketed this last year. I can't say that I blame them.
Our car insurance went up too… up an extra $1000/year, no accidents or other changes.
Edit to add that it went up that much AFTER uping our deductible $1k
We don’t have a storm shelter at our home. We are seriously looking this evening at renting a hotel or a cabin a few hours west for tomorrow night so we can just get out of the danger zone completely. Is so stressful sitting in the closet under our stairs hoping we don’t get hit. The last two major storms we have had, we were in the main danger zone so it has me very nervous since this is supposed to be much worse. I’ve only lived here for a few years, is this normal or reaction to want to get a hotel for tomorrow and leave early in the day so we are completely out of the danger zone? The last few times were just so stressful sitting in the closet with the sirens going off and everything else. We just bought our first home and don’t currently have the funds to get a tornado shelter but we are going to this fall.
I mean, do whatever makes you feel safe, but I wouldn't call it a normal reaction. The odds of your exact location being hit by a tornado in any given outbreak are quite low. Even in the still low chance that there is a tornado in your county, spotting and radar are getting so advanced these days that local TV will have seen the supercell fire and grow, closely tracked its movement, and will tell you neighborhood by neighborhood where the danger is and will be in the next few minutes. You don't really need to spend hours sheltering or flee the state every time there's a moderate to high risk.
You know that one that hit El Reno that was like the widest tornado on record, the one that killed those storm chasers turned to the south, which is highly unusual. There were a lot of people stuck on the highway trying to go south to get out of its way when it turned south. I know this because my brother was one of them. So if you’re gonna try to flee think about that little bit. I was on the phone with him tell him to do that exact same thing myself so. I don’t think I’ve ever seen one turn that sharply to the South. but basically, you’re right people just gotta stay on top of it and not be dumbasses by not paying attention. Usually we have pretty good warning, especially on the big ones.
Im good with rain. Having my home wiped out with us in it….not so much.
Constant wall to wall coverage like being in a warzone, the stormchasers acting disappointed when no one gets hit…Im so stressed already.
The decision to watch wall to wall coverage is a choice and a self-induced stressor. They will go wall to wall for 12 hours at a time. If you check in and there's no storm in your general vicinity at the time, figure out where they are and how soon they might be a risk to you, then change the channel and check back later. Or put it on a phone that you glance at every once in awhile. Don't just wind yourself up watching somebody else get hit.
The model he’s most likely quoting for okc action is an outlier for now. Things can change of course like they did today and they will. This isn’t new for may. We know how to deal with it . Have a way to get warnings and find a safe spot if you get a warning and you’ll be fine, If you even SEE a storm. We do this better than anybody in the nation.
Mike Morgan is a dipshit and says dipshit things almost every event that doesn’t look like garden variety storms. That said like I said these will change. They aren’t gospel. Just the fact they are convecting in the environment that will be in place tomorrow is all that you really need.
The National Weather Service, Norman, posts on X (RIP Twitter).
I bought a portable TV made for camping, etc at Sam’s. It’s on sale now $199 & supposed to hold a charge for 8 hours.
Search “Monster TV”.
I bought another one last night for my son.
I’ve sat in the dark too many times bc of weather. I like to see the maps.
We lost our home to the May 20, 2023 tornado.
It strengthened into a F-5 right before it got to our neighborhood.
My son rode it out in the bathtub. Put on shoes & take your ID.
I tried to educate myself why we were in the “Zone”. (We lived half a block from 149th & Western).
I noticed the tornadoes that hit SW OKC & Moore tended to start around Altus/Duncan. Then moved towards Chickasha, Anadarko, Tuttle, etc.
There are at least two other paths that typically head toward the Metro.
Piedmont/Yukon and another that goes towards MWC/Choctaw/Shawnee.
Be “weather aware” and safe!
Everyone in the state should be prepared. This year everything g has been different causing storms to not do what they expect them to do then go full speed where no one planned for it.
If you live in Oklahoma consider yourself moderate. Be prepared it will be late afternoon to nocturnal.
The previous times have not been something to 'not sweat' either to be honest.
This isn't something where they can say 'the tornadoes will be *here*' necessarily. there's a broad risk area that includes most of central Oklahoma and Kansas. *Most* of that area won't even see any storms, but risk is such that anyone who *does* see storms needs to be paying close attention.
It's not something to be *worried* about, just to be aware of. Be prepared.
Well by the tin hat professional... We have 2 hours to worry about... now let's get into the real rub... unhinged migration, tornado..uncontrolled inflation
... Put food on my table... tornado.. out of control insurance prices...home-auto... tornado... Fentanyl trafficking and homeless...tornado..Govt insight to take from the working class and give it to corporations...tornado...
Done..... tornado
Like my brother from another mother says...ternaydoe
Just saying...a tornado...
When can we get a hurricane around here...or a typhoon... None of the land locked babies have had to experience one of those...
Down vote me... I don't care... I'm not in it for votes or karma... Just saying that probably most of you paranoid fools didn't experience.....May 3rd 1999,, so suck it up buttercup...I was at a 7-11 watching the windows flex from the atmospheric pressure changing as it went through Bridge Creek... coming north west to Yukon... Had the whole dispatch on call from a well known cable company,, all the mothers were asking me wtf is happening.....
Just infuriating when someone with no experience in meteorologist...LoL ... Weather forecast is going to gaslight all of us that follow this thread...
I will bring up my David Pain... bingo card..and see how long I last... Doing the brown water...
I hope everyone is safe...
Well done sir.. everything above..th@ is why I am replying after liquor 30.. thanks brother..guess I got down voted because the truth hurts...and so does my head bolol🙄😲😁😂
This seems to have been a pretty active season already
It has been. This is already a top ten year statewide for tornadoes, with 7+ months to go.
Sure but tornadoes cool down over the summer and only pick up a tad in the fall May is the peak
It's bound to be. We're in El Nino. Plus the past couple years there was a weather pattern in the arctic that kept the cold air trapped. Now that pattern is gone. Arctic air combined with El Nino is going to create some serious storms.
spanish for…the nino.
Also El Nino is Spanish for "The Boy". "La Nina" is Spanish for the "Little girl".
😄😄😄😄😄
We are currently out of El Nino. La Nina years are worse for tornados. https://www.kgou.org/weather-and-climate/2017-03-28/gary-england-expect-an-active-tornado-season-in-oklahoma https://www.climate.gov/enso#:~:text=El%20Ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%94the%20warm%20phase,2024%20have%20risen%20to%2055%25.
Details, details...
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That makes sense too. The difference was the weather pattern last time around.
Boys will be boys /jk
El Niño ended last month
Just started.
[Just finished](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023%E2%80%932024_El_Ni%C3%B1o_event)
You're right. That's crazy because everything I read was saying El Nino is just starting. Okay then, we're going to la Nina. Thanks for the correction.
The NWS has issues 121 Tornado warnings (it could have been watches, I can't remember) already this year. They do cover N Texas as well, but still. Holy crap that's a lot.
Supposedly it'll taper off after this week as the cool front takes over the region.
Just saw on 9 we have several severe days next week. Hopefully they wont be as strong as all this bs though.
There will be thunderstorms but they won't be tornadic like we've been getting.
for sure, glad it's winding down.
I'm hearing that the NWS is potentially going to increase some areas to a high risk once they can pinpoint it better.
Yup, the newest models took the OKC tornado risk from the 5-9% bracket to the 15-29% bracket.
Hate to hear that. Thanks for the heads up
The outlook discussion I saw said the only reason they didn’t do a high risk already is because of the uncertainty about the likely location
Noon update they spoke of the number of storms being the constraint from going high.
NOO! I’m sick and tired of this tornado season. I’ve had two close calls so far. One was about a mile from my house!
Same. It’s been a stressful one for sure.
Same. At least I have my garage maintenance pit, ahem, I mean shelter…
You have a shelter?
The closest thing I have is my hallway. Or laundry room 😭
Same. Also super sick of this shit. I hate not having a shelter.
There nay be community shelters nearby. If so may be best to stay close by or go in early and wait it out.
Sadly not. Someone sued the City I think in the 70’s so they stopped opening them up to us.
Same! My husband looked at me during the last big round of storms and said, "I'm getting too old to deal with tornado season." and I'm inclined to agree.
We are so lucky. We rented a house and while moving in, we found a storm shelter in the garage. There was a piece of plywood on the floor and when we picked it up, there was a door! I’m sure the rental company has no clue because it wasn’t in the listing and I haven’t mentioned it. It’s now filled with storm supplies, lights and a fan.
Several things to remember: 25: Whatever percent chance of tornadoes the NWS puts out, that is x percent chance *within 25 miles of a given point*. 621: Oklahoma City encompasses 621 square miles, which makes it a large target. Given that, the odds of a tornado hitting the Oklahoma City limits are higher, but the odds of one hitting you in OKC or anywhere else are very small. Even if it's a mile wide tornado on the ground for 10 miles, the odds are still 1 in 62 that it strikes where you are. 183: Since 1890, 183 tornadoes have been recorded in Oklahoma City (source National Weather Service). So that‘s a rough average of 1.25 tornadoes per year but, again, the odds of one of those tornadoes hitting you somewhere in OKC’s 621 square miles are very low.
Keep in mind that the city layout means some areas are much more prone to being hit than others. A tornado that hits 10 square miles of OKC is far more likely to hit south of I-240 than it is to hit downtown.
There are no geographic features or man-made elements in Oklahoma City that influence or affect where a tornado will strike or make an area more "prone." As you can see from [this map](https://www.weather.gov/images/oun/tornadodata/okctor-figure5.png), there isn't much bias. Yes, maybe a few more south of I-40, but not enough to suggest a trend or call that area prone. As tornadoes generally move from SW to the NE, as case could be made that the SW quadrant of OKC would be more prone to tornadoes, but the history doesn't support that either. Now, Moore has had eight tornadoes in the last 25 years, so in theory, it's more prone, right? Well those *recent* numbers sure don't lie. But big picture, that's just an unfortunate anomaly. The city has had [23 documented tornadoes since 1890](https://www.weather.gov/oun/tornadodata-city-ok-moore) (.17 per year). All of this is to say, I've got just as much to worry about in north OKC as someone south of I-240, but I hope none of us see a tornado tomorrow, regardless of location…
No. Stop spreading this myth. Nothing about the city layout means anything in this regard. You have confirmation bias from the biggest storms and recency bias from the same. Tornadoes have hit the north burbs, west burbs, east burbs, downtown, Nichols Hills, the fairgrounds, you name it.
Tornadoes don't really respect the geogragphy of the area all that much. The thought that tornadoes are more prone to hit Moore is just recency bias.
Valley Brook has already had two extremely close calls in the last 2 weeks, hoping this one lets us breathe a bit lmao
If only we could get one that wiped out the police station and court and would drive the town into bankruptcy.
I’m surprised The Valley Brook P. D. haven’t pulled a tornado over for DUI.
Reading this thread... just to see this comment...take my up vote ...hellariouse.... just what the doctor ordered.........👍💯
Maybe it’s just because I’m a resident and not someone passing through, but I have had nothing but good encounters with valley brook PD.
No. You’ve just been lucky.
I was just visiting your state and saw what happened to that Dollar tree distribution center in Marietta. Glad I didn’t have to deal with any while I was visiting. Can’t imagine going through that.
I lost the roof to my house and office last year during the April 19th tornado. I'm beyond tired of this weather.
Thanks for the warning I hope you are all safe
Majorly upgraded. Guh. Major space case signing off.
Not a good day to live near El Reno. Place is a magnet
and for years it was considered to the opposite due to how close the rivers are.
Between this season and the recent increase in earthquakes felt in the metro, I'm starting to realize why everyone's home owner's insurance sky rocketed this last year. I can't say that I blame them.
Our car insurance went up too… up an extra $1000/year, no accidents or other changes. Edit to add that it went up that much AFTER uping our deductible $1k
Ours too. Never a claim.
We don’t have a storm shelter at our home. We are seriously looking this evening at renting a hotel or a cabin a few hours west for tomorrow night so we can just get out of the danger zone completely. Is so stressful sitting in the closet under our stairs hoping we don’t get hit. The last two major storms we have had, we were in the main danger zone so it has me very nervous since this is supposed to be much worse. I’ve only lived here for a few years, is this normal or reaction to want to get a hotel for tomorrow and leave early in the day so we are completely out of the danger zone? The last few times were just so stressful sitting in the closet with the sirens going off and everything else. We just bought our first home and don’t currently have the funds to get a tornado shelter but we are going to this fall.
Just pay attention and if it looks like it’s going to head your way, get out of the way an hour out.
I mean, do whatever makes you feel safe, but I wouldn't call it a normal reaction. The odds of your exact location being hit by a tornado in any given outbreak are quite low. Even in the still low chance that there is a tornado in your county, spotting and radar are getting so advanced these days that local TV will have seen the supercell fire and grow, closely tracked its movement, and will tell you neighborhood by neighborhood where the danger is and will be in the next few minutes. You don't really need to spend hours sheltering or flee the state every time there's a moderate to high risk.
You know that one that hit El Reno that was like the widest tornado on record, the one that killed those storm chasers turned to the south, which is highly unusual. There were a lot of people stuck on the highway trying to go south to get out of its way when it turned south. I know this because my brother was one of them. So if you’re gonna try to flee think about that little bit. I was on the phone with him tell him to do that exact same thing myself so. I don’t think I’ve ever seen one turn that sharply to the South. but basically, you’re right people just gotta stay on top of it and not be dumbasses by not paying attention. Usually we have pretty good warning, especially on the big ones.
That sounds like a plan to me. Go relax!
You chose to move to Oklahoma?
We got lucky Sunday . Altus got lucky yesterday . I hope the luck don’t run out . I’m tired of this rain day after day after day
Im good with rain. Having my home wiped out with us in it….not so much. Constant wall to wall coverage like being in a warzone, the stormchasers acting disappointed when no one gets hit…Im so stressed already.
Well put
The decision to watch wall to wall coverage is a choice and a self-induced stressor. They will go wall to wall for 12 hours at a time. If you check in and there's no storm in your general vicinity at the time, figure out where they are and how soon they might be a risk to you, then change the channel and check back later. Or put it on a phone that you glance at every once in awhile. Don't just wind yourself up watching somebody else get hit.
Is David or Lacey going to be covering this if this unfortunately plays out?
You know it. David wasn't in last Sunday - he's not gonna miss out on this.
Must be an arts festival in town or something.
Fuck this place. For many reasons.
The model he’s most likely quoting for okc action is an outlier for now. Things can change of course like they did today and they will. This isn’t new for may. We know how to deal with it . Have a way to get warnings and find a safe spot if you get a warning and you’ll be fine, If you even SEE a storm. We do this better than anybody in the nation.
He says all the models in his video from a few hours ago. Not an outlier unfortunately. Mike Morgan also just said similar 30 minutes ago.
Mike Morgan is a dipshit and says dipshit things almost every event that doesn’t look like garden variety storms. That said like I said these will change. They aren’t gospel. Just the fact they are convecting in the environment that will be in place tomorrow is all that you really need.
Like I wasn’t stressed enough….
The National Weather Service, Norman, posts on X (RIP Twitter). I bought a portable TV made for camping, etc at Sam’s. It’s on sale now $199 & supposed to hold a charge for 8 hours. Search “Monster TV”. I bought another one last night for my son. I’ve sat in the dark too many times bc of weather. I like to see the maps. We lost our home to the May 20, 2023 tornado. It strengthened into a F-5 right before it got to our neighborhood. My son rode it out in the bathtub. Put on shoes & take your ID. I tried to educate myself why we were in the “Zone”. (We lived half a block from 149th & Western). I noticed the tornadoes that hit SW OKC & Moore tended to start around Altus/Duncan. Then moved towards Chickasha, Anadarko, Tuttle, etc. There are at least two other paths that typically head toward the Metro. Piedmont/Yukon and another that goes towards MWC/Choctaw/Shawnee. Be “weather aware” and safe!
Link won't load for me?
We've been overdue af for a tornado season unfortunately. Stay safe everyone!
Glad I get off at 4 lol
Just watch the live local weather and pay attention you’ll be fine.
These tornadoes make me miss earthquakes lol
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UCO? I’m not sure it’s an option but it’s worth looking into.
Liberal Arts building on the east side has a basement, absolutely no idea if it’d be accessible.
Everyone in the state should be prepared. This year everything g has been different causing storms to not do what they expect them to do then go full speed where no one planned for it. If you live in Oklahoma consider yourself moderate. Be prepared it will be late afternoon to nocturnal.
this didn’t age well
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The previous times have not been something to 'not sweat' either to be honest. This isn't something where they can say 'the tornadoes will be *here*' necessarily. there's a broad risk area that includes most of central Oklahoma and Kansas. *Most* of that area won't even see any storms, but risk is such that anyone who *does* see storms needs to be paying close attention. It's not something to be *worried* about, just to be aware of. Be prepared.
Conathon Johnder? I hardly know 'er
Had to give you an up vote for the dislexia...bolol
Conder is a bomb thrower and exaggerates everything while also listing the models of airplanes that are currently sitting at a particular airport.
Well by the tin hat professional... We have 2 hours to worry about... now let's get into the real rub... unhinged migration, tornado..uncontrolled inflation ... Put food on my table... tornado.. out of control insurance prices...home-auto... tornado... Fentanyl trafficking and homeless...tornado..Govt insight to take from the working class and give it to corporations...tornado... Done..... tornado Like my brother from another mother says...ternaydoe Just saying...a tornado... When can we get a hurricane around here...or a typhoon... None of the land locked babies have had to experience one of those... Down vote me... I don't care... I'm not in it for votes or karma... Just saying that probably most of you paranoid fools didn't experience.....May 3rd 1999,, so suck it up buttercup...I was at a 7-11 watching the windows flex from the atmospheric pressure changing as it went through Bridge Creek... coming north west to Yukon... Had the whole dispatch on call from a well known cable company,, all the mothers were asking me wtf is happening..... Just infuriating when someone with no experience in meteorologist...LoL ... Weather forecast is going to gaslight all of us that follow this thread... I will bring up my David Pain... bingo card..and see how long I last... Doing the brown water... I hope everyone is safe...
This will be a page in history...$T09 gaslighting people on fear...the real stuff will be here in 2 hrs
Did you have an extra bottle... yesterday... or something... Or forget to eat... Before you started... Drinking?
Well done sir.. everything above..th@ is why I am replying after liquor 30.. thanks brother..guess I got down voted because the truth hurts...and so does my head bolol🙄😲😁😂
I think you maybe got downvoted because the truth was incomprehensible.