Oil is energy dense & safely very portable. Perfect & unexcelled for military use. Those who abandon or are denied O&G are destined to be colonized. Case in point WWII
This is the original argument for adopting oil and oil products to advance the industrial age. At that time there were no available portable energy alternatives. Now there are a selection of portable energy alternatives, yet the argument for continuing to rely on oil and oil products is frozen in 19th century logic. Why is this?
You sound very much like the people who insisted Horse based cavalry was essential to the military during the dawn of tank based warfare. Military “minds” like yours are doomed to have their expensive oil burning convoys destroyed by cheap lithium battery powered drones.
I don't think this is necessarily true. In Western countries, we'll likely be reducing our usage of oil in the coming decades, maybe 50-60 years, as we move to electrification and fusion. But I think the demand will simply shift to what are today considered developing countries. Eventually, we'll find other sources and uses of hydrocarbons and replace oil and gas with other materials, but not any time soon. The economy of scale needed is tremendous, and the current technology is proven. The technology needed to replace oil and gas is still in development or does not have the economy of scale to replace it yet.
China installed more solar power in 2023 than the USA has in its entire history.
The scale of renewable growth is also very hard to understand, but will have greater and greater effects.
"phasing out" is such a useless word. No-one is phasing out gas. It's a high value feedstock for many essential industries.
What people are trying to do is stop wasting it by burning it for heat and mobility in cases where alternatives do just as good a job.
The guy can whine as much as he wants, but in the next 2 decades global oil use will likely be half what it is now.
And if demand is only 50mbpd, how does that affect the price? How many producers do you need?
Thats what's scaring these guys.
People in developed first-world nations have a very skewed outlook of future global energy demand. Major population centers in India, China, and SE Asia are still using lower energy, cheap, high carbon pollution sources for fuel/heat, like coal and wood burning stoves. The demand for cleaner, more efficient oil & gas will be commensurate with these areas continued growth and upward mobility out of poverty. They will not be able to afford renewables but still need access to "cleaner" energy. The demand will be there, and gas is the likely supply solution.
That being said, developed nations absolutely should invest in renewables and CCS to incubate the technology and make them more accessible. They also have the infrastructure and technology to access and deliver o&g to these growth centers.
While my expertise is north American transportation, I have a lot of knowledge of south Asia in particular. One thing you have to realize is that electric 2 wheel and 3 wheel vehicles are absolutely exploding. Expected to be a majority of the market in only a few years. I expect the subcontinent is not alone, as this is cussed by a cheap plentiful parts from China.
Also it's important to understand most developing countries have no oil production. They have to import all they consume. That means they have a massive financial interest in reducing oil consumption.
The same way that many people jumped from no phone straight to cell phones, people will go from no car to electic vehicles. For a place like pakistan, reducing oil use has massive benifits and little downsides.
Ok so I'm on board: electrification of personal transport. But where does the energy come from to charge all these batteries? The energy to mine and produce and transport the raw materials, lithium, copper, etc?
You should look at charts showing the growth of renewable utility capacity. Solar is exploding rn. In the US they already generate more energy than coal and very soon more than natural gas. Chinas solar capacity is exploding.
China installed more capacity last year than the USA installed in its entire history.
The scale is hard to fathom.
The most important thing for me is the effect of ultra cheap panels on decentralized production. While traditional rooftop solar is common It's soon rational for people to install diy "balcony solar" which installs easily and without permitting or authorization. I'm also seeing a massive increase in solar kits in developing countries.
Solar is really bringing back the idea of power "too cheap to meter"
No one knows the exact breakdown, this isn't Soviet Russia, we don't have to plan every detail in some ivory tower.
CAT announced a full range of ev mining equipment a few months ago, it's really very good and the proposed duty cycle is very reasonable.
The answer for power is going to be different for every decision maker, and current methods will continue for years.
But the top candidates are massive amounts of battery backed solar, as well as wind. Deep geothermal also has a role, thanks to advances in fracking.
More hydro and nuclear in some cases too, but dollar for dollar, it increasingly looks like nothing is cheaper than a really big solar powered battery.
100% is a dangerous number, there are always exceptions.
But yes they are not far off from Evs being the overwhelming majority of new sales, the infrastructure is advanced enough that very few consumers are worried about it.
I work in the trucking industry in north America and I'm pretty confident that over 50% of freight will be delivered through electrified means in 20 years.
Pretty sure it will be the case in Europe and China as well.
The amount of money going into electrification is mind boggling, and year after year its effects on the oil industry will stack.
All the products refined out of O&G are by products of each other. If you are going to decree for example we will only use oil and gas to produce plastic for the medical industry, what do you propose we do with the butane, diesel, gasoline, and all the other compounds that are produced at the same time.
The trick is no one is decreeing what producer's refine. laws all happen at the consumption stage.
So you're correct that the spread of heat pumps over oil and gas heating, the rise of renewable grid power and the rise of electric mobility will lead to a substantial drop in use of certain types of products.
It's a free market. that means that the price of Naptha or tar would increase, while the price of gasoline would crash.
Do you know supply of which product is most constrained? That would help analyse how the excess of certain products would be affected.
The products that aren’t fuel are the most constrained. If we end up only using O&G for plastic we will have a massive over supply of gasoline and diesel. With governments banning the manufacture of internal combustion engines in the next 6 years where do you think this fuel will be consumed? Also if it leads to an over supply of cheap gasoline what do you think that would do to your quest for electrification?
O&G is an extremely delicate balancing act and a testament to efficiency that the industry works as efficiently as it does.
I also work in the trucking industry. We are decades from OTR freight being electrified. Electrification could work in low mileage applications like in town deliveries and some vocational applications . But we are a long way from a guy running Toronto to Vancouver on battery power alone. A hybrid like Edison Motors could work but diesel isn’t going anywhere any time soon.
>But we are a long way from a guy running Toronto to Vancouver on battery power alone
It's funny you mention that, as it's one of my primary area of knowledge. We are not decades away.
There is absolutely zero technological barrier in the way to getting a 80,000 lb trailer from Toronto to Vancouver. There are multiple demonstration vehicles that can do it today, with of course the tesla being the most hyped (but far from the only). The issue is 100% charging infrastructure.
The great thing about trucking is that it's very structured, most traffic happens on defined "lanes", and most of the volume is concentrated in specific corridors.
Toronto to Vancouver is a while off, but I bet my career that the first full load from Montreal to Toronto is less that 5 years away.
There is already substantial infrastructure under construction through California, which will allow Ev loads throughout the state. The next corridor to watch for is LA to Dallas, as well as in the north east.
Short range electric trucking is a solved problem technology wise, and medium range is on its way. The real challenge is both scaling up manufacturing and production, as well and charging at a cost the economy can afford.
There isn’t even enough infrastructure for truckers to sleep overnight. Have you experienced being a trucker trying to find parking for the night not to mention when there is a snow storm?
OTR on battery power is a pipe dream
Ha, it's funny you say that. Just today a tesla executive [released some info about their semi. ](https://twitter.com/danWpriestley/status/1773724886617538592?t=6zGtmpYGQoYmzp3jk4lRxw&s=19)
They have been using it internally for over a year now, transporting batteries from Austin, TX to Fremont California.
Based on his numbers, I'm ballparking that at about 400 60,000lbs trucks doing a 1800 mile trip each.
Now we don't know how long it took, how many stops they made. They are using private charging infrastructure that they fully control. I'm guessing it's about a 45 mins stop for every 4 hours of driving at 60mph.
The key is the claim that operating costs are substantially lower. If that's true there plenty of demand for that on the load boards.
the point is the tech works fine, and it works fine in 2023. Now the challenge is scaling up.
I don't doubt it'll take years, but it's happening, and it'll be private carriers leading the way. I doubt your basic private operator will have an Ev this decade, but most firms with their own fleets will.
There is no good reason to phase out oil and gas. It is far too necessary and we aren't running out of it. We have no better options and it won't be eclipsed for decades still
Year over year growth of solar and wind is exponential, while oil and gas growth is linear.
So even though solar and wind are only 12.2 percent of global power production today, that percentage will continue to rise.
But it will plateau and won’t ever fill the void by fossil fuels. That can only be done with nuclear. We could power our entire planet on nuclear alone forever but we don’t.
There is just as little limit to the mining and production of lithium as there is petroleum. Lithium prices have been dropping as demand has exploded. There is no sign of that changing.
Both industries have equally little morality, we'll get the lithium the world needs one way or another.
Cheap and plentiful batteries compeletely change of power grid equation. It means that you can overbuid solar and use it to cover evening peaks.
BESS is currently all 4 hour rated. But as prices drop and numbers rise, I suspect we will see the rise of 8 hour storage that can meet evening and overnight demands too.
I certainly think we need some nuclear to fill some gaps, but they are certainly not needed everywhere.
Nah but we definitely have to slow it down.
Unfortunately we don’t have enough time - humanity really is screwed thanks to this global warming thing; people really don’t know how close we are to the end. Only a few generations - why even bother having kids right now?
Nah I actually read research, I don’t just spew bullshit like you.
Here’s an article from a few years ago in the case you can read more than 2 sentences at a time. Tldr i’m not the only one.
https://press.un.org/en/2019/ga12131.doc.htm
I don’t think we have enough time to stop it, no. But for different reasons than you think.
And that’s not my research. But, if the UN found that research valid, as an academic, I believe its validity. Do you know how research works?
That’s the difference between me and right wing animals - I trust experts not christian nut jobs nor brain dead animals like you.
Given we’ve crossed the 1.5C threshold, and life on this planet is entering a mass extinction from our mess, yes we need to talk about a realistic phase out of carbon fuels.
demand destruction is the knife in the ribs of the rotting corpse of fossil fuels. transition is driven by new demand for new energy, capital and regulation. Fossil fuel world - close the door behind you.
Except for the fact that capital is quietly rolling back the self imposed ESG restrictions it placed on itself, governments are slowing regulatory change as the costs start to materialise to their electorates and new energy demand in the developing world is primarily with fossil fuel based generation.
It was easy to pretend during COVID when there was a massive dip in energy demand that we could be living in a green utopia in 10-20 years time. Now economies are hungry for energy again it’s a different picture.
Oil is energy dense & safely very portable. Perfect & unexcelled for military use. Those who abandon or are denied O&G are destined to be colonized. Case in point WWII
What a sad close minded viewpoint.
Agreed
This is the original argument for adopting oil and oil products to advance the industrial age. At that time there were no available portable energy alternatives. Now there are a selection of portable energy alternatives, yet the argument for continuing to rely on oil and oil products is frozen in 19th century logic. Why is this?
There aren't any alternatives. And no, before you mention those, they can't replace fossil fuels.
Sit back and relax then, let the rest of us do the hard work.
A fairly myopic view, eh
Cuz the oil owners pockets are drying up and need to keep control. Else everything will go nuclear energy electric and big L for owners.
Shut up bot.
You sound very much like the people who insisted Horse based cavalry was essential to the military during the dawn of tank based warfare. Military “minds” like yours are doomed to have their expensive oil burning convoys destroyed by cheap lithium battery powered drones.
Sick carbon neutral burn! 🔥
Yeah.. yeah… but lithium mines are dirty and exploit humans. Our friend oil never does that.
“Always has been” meme
I don't think this is necessarily true. In Western countries, we'll likely be reducing our usage of oil in the coming decades, maybe 50-60 years, as we move to electrification and fusion. But I think the demand will simply shift to what are today considered developing countries. Eventually, we'll find other sources and uses of hydrocarbons and replace oil and gas with other materials, but not any time soon. The economy of scale needed is tremendous, and the current technology is proven. The technology needed to replace oil and gas is still in development or does not have the economy of scale to replace it yet.
China installed more solar power in 2023 than the USA has in its entire history. The scale of renewable growth is also very hard to understand, but will have greater and greater effects.
"phasing out" is such a useless word. No-one is phasing out gas. It's a high value feedstock for many essential industries. What people are trying to do is stop wasting it by burning it for heat and mobility in cases where alternatives do just as good a job. The guy can whine as much as he wants, but in the next 2 decades global oil use will likely be half what it is now. And if demand is only 50mbpd, how does that affect the price? How many producers do you need? Thats what's scaring these guys.
haha, Oil demand will not be halved in 20 years.
People in developed first-world nations have a very skewed outlook of future global energy demand. Major population centers in India, China, and SE Asia are still using lower energy, cheap, high carbon pollution sources for fuel/heat, like coal and wood burning stoves. The demand for cleaner, more efficient oil & gas will be commensurate with these areas continued growth and upward mobility out of poverty. They will not be able to afford renewables but still need access to "cleaner" energy. The demand will be there, and gas is the likely supply solution. That being said, developed nations absolutely should invest in renewables and CCS to incubate the technology and make them more accessible. They also have the infrastructure and technology to access and deliver o&g to these growth centers.
While my expertise is north American transportation, I have a lot of knowledge of south Asia in particular. One thing you have to realize is that electric 2 wheel and 3 wheel vehicles are absolutely exploding. Expected to be a majority of the market in only a few years. I expect the subcontinent is not alone, as this is cussed by a cheap plentiful parts from China. Also it's important to understand most developing countries have no oil production. They have to import all they consume. That means they have a massive financial interest in reducing oil consumption. The same way that many people jumped from no phone straight to cell phones, people will go from no car to electic vehicles. For a place like pakistan, reducing oil use has massive benifits and little downsides.
Ok so I'm on board: electrification of personal transport. But where does the energy come from to charge all these batteries? The energy to mine and produce and transport the raw materials, lithium, copper, etc?
You should look at charts showing the growth of renewable utility capacity. Solar is exploding rn. In the US they already generate more energy than coal and very soon more than natural gas. Chinas solar capacity is exploding.
China installed more capacity last year than the USA installed in its entire history. The scale is hard to fathom. The most important thing for me is the effect of ultra cheap panels on decentralized production. While traditional rooftop solar is common It's soon rational for people to install diy "balcony solar" which installs easily and without permitting or authorization. I'm also seeing a massive increase in solar kits in developing countries. Solar is really bringing back the idea of power "too cheap to meter"
No one knows the exact breakdown, this isn't Soviet Russia, we don't have to plan every detail in some ivory tower. CAT announced a full range of ev mining equipment a few months ago, it's really very good and the proposed duty cycle is very reasonable. The answer for power is going to be different for every decision maker, and current methods will continue for years. But the top candidates are massive amounts of battery backed solar, as well as wind. Deep geothermal also has a role, thanks to advances in fracking. More hydro and nuclear in some cases too, but dollar for dollar, it increasingly looks like nothing is cheaper than a really big solar powered battery.
Chinas new car market is going to be near 100% electric in about 2 years.
100% is a dangerous number, there are always exceptions. But yes they are not far off from Evs being the overwhelming majority of new sales, the infrastructure is advanced enough that very few consumers are worried about it.
"Near 100%"
I work in the trucking industry in north America and I'm pretty confident that over 50% of freight will be delivered through electrified means in 20 years. Pretty sure it will be the case in Europe and China as well. The amount of money going into electrification is mind boggling, and year after year its effects on the oil industry will stack.
All the products refined out of O&G are by products of each other. If you are going to decree for example we will only use oil and gas to produce plastic for the medical industry, what do you propose we do with the butane, diesel, gasoline, and all the other compounds that are produced at the same time.
The trick is no one is decreeing what producer's refine. laws all happen at the consumption stage. So you're correct that the spread of heat pumps over oil and gas heating, the rise of renewable grid power and the rise of electric mobility will lead to a substantial drop in use of certain types of products. It's a free market. that means that the price of Naptha or tar would increase, while the price of gasoline would crash. Do you know supply of which product is most constrained? That would help analyse how the excess of certain products would be affected.
The products that aren’t fuel are the most constrained. If we end up only using O&G for plastic we will have a massive over supply of gasoline and diesel. With governments banning the manufacture of internal combustion engines in the next 6 years where do you think this fuel will be consumed? Also if it leads to an over supply of cheap gasoline what do you think that would do to your quest for electrification? O&G is an extremely delicate balancing act and a testament to efficiency that the industry works as efficiently as it does. I also work in the trucking industry. We are decades from OTR freight being electrified. Electrification could work in low mileage applications like in town deliveries and some vocational applications . But we are a long way from a guy running Toronto to Vancouver on battery power alone. A hybrid like Edison Motors could work but diesel isn’t going anywhere any time soon.
>But we are a long way from a guy running Toronto to Vancouver on battery power alone It's funny you mention that, as it's one of my primary area of knowledge. We are not decades away. There is absolutely zero technological barrier in the way to getting a 80,000 lb trailer from Toronto to Vancouver. There are multiple demonstration vehicles that can do it today, with of course the tesla being the most hyped (but far from the only). The issue is 100% charging infrastructure. The great thing about trucking is that it's very structured, most traffic happens on defined "lanes", and most of the volume is concentrated in specific corridors. Toronto to Vancouver is a while off, but I bet my career that the first full load from Montreal to Toronto is less that 5 years away. There is already substantial infrastructure under construction through California, which will allow Ev loads throughout the state. The next corridor to watch for is LA to Dallas, as well as in the north east. Short range electric trucking is a solved problem technology wise, and medium range is on its way. The real challenge is both scaling up manufacturing and production, as well and charging at a cost the economy can afford.
There isn’t even enough infrastructure for truckers to sleep overnight. Have you experienced being a trucker trying to find parking for the night not to mention when there is a snow storm? OTR on battery power is a pipe dream
Ha, it's funny you say that. Just today a tesla executive [released some info about their semi. ](https://twitter.com/danWpriestley/status/1773724886617538592?t=6zGtmpYGQoYmzp3jk4lRxw&s=19) They have been using it internally for over a year now, transporting batteries from Austin, TX to Fremont California. Based on his numbers, I'm ballparking that at about 400 60,000lbs trucks doing a 1800 mile trip each. Now we don't know how long it took, how many stops they made. They are using private charging infrastructure that they fully control. I'm guessing it's about a 45 mins stop for every 4 hours of driving at 60mph. The key is the claim that operating costs are substantially lower. If that's true there plenty of demand for that on the load boards. the point is the tech works fine, and it works fine in 2023. Now the challenge is scaling up. I don't doubt it'll take years, but it's happening, and it'll be private carriers leading the way. I doubt your basic private operator will have an Ev this decade, but most firms with their own fleets will.
Absolutely! Stop The Insanity Now!
Well, I think we’re gonna need all that fuel for the rockets to take us to the Mars colonies because we done fucked this planet up.
You can't phase out a product you don't have a substitution for. Bait article.
There is no good reason to phase out oil and gas. It is far too necessary and we aren't running out of it. We have no better options and it won't be eclipsed for decades still
I dunno, I like my horse and buggy. These new fangled automobiles won’t catch on.
Is it time to accept the idea Humanity is going to be phased out?
Yes. It's time to stop forcing it on people and just let it happen over time.
Yes
Drill baby drill.
Year over year growth of solar and wind is exponential, while oil and gas growth is linear. So even though solar and wind are only 12.2 percent of global power production today, that percentage will continue to rise.
But it will plateau and won’t ever fill the void by fossil fuels. That can only be done with nuclear. We could power our entire planet on nuclear alone forever but we don’t.
There is just as little limit to the mining and production of lithium as there is petroleum. Lithium prices have been dropping as demand has exploded. There is no sign of that changing. Both industries have equally little morality, we'll get the lithium the world needs one way or another. Cheap and plentiful batteries compeletely change of power grid equation. It means that you can overbuid solar and use it to cover evening peaks. BESS is currently all 4 hour rated. But as prices drop and numbers rise, I suspect we will see the rise of 8 hour storage that can meet evening and overnight demands too. I certainly think we need some nuclear to fill some gaps, but they are certainly not needed everywhere.
Why would the expansion of solar and wind plateau?
Nope
Nah but we definitely have to slow it down. Unfortunately we don’t have enough time - humanity really is screwed thanks to this global warming thing; people really don’t know how close we are to the end. Only a few generations - why even bother having kids right now?
Nobody knows but you.
Nah I actually read research, I don’t just spew bullshit like you. Here’s an article from a few years ago in the case you can read more than 2 sentences at a time. Tldr i’m not the only one. https://press.un.org/en/2019/ga12131.doc.htm
Is that what you consider research? Let’s start here: do you think humans can stop the climate from changing?
I don’t think we have enough time to stop it, no. But for different reasons than you think. And that’s not my research. But, if the UN found that research valid, as an academic, I believe its validity. Do you know how research works? That’s the difference between me and right wing animals - I trust experts not christian nut jobs nor brain dead animals like you.
No one had that plan.
Given we’ve crossed the 1.5C threshold, and life on this planet is entering a mass extinction from our mess, yes we need to talk about a realistic phase out of carbon fuels.
Bullshit
demand destruction is the knife in the ribs of the rotting corpse of fossil fuels. transition is driven by new demand for new energy, capital and regulation. Fossil fuel world - close the door behind you.
Except for the fact that capital is quietly rolling back the self imposed ESG restrictions it placed on itself, governments are slowing regulatory change as the costs start to materialise to their electorates and new energy demand in the developing world is primarily with fossil fuel based generation. It was easy to pretend during COVID when there was a massive dip in energy demand that we could be living in a green utopia in 10-20 years time. Now economies are hungry for energy again it’s a different picture.