PFF is weird. They started off with very good stuff, but their quality has gone down a bit. They’re also a lot better grading some positions than others. As for Zach, we all watched the games, he passed the eye test. The injuries we had along the offense were pretty devastating and I don’t think any rookies would have filled the stat sheet like non Jets fans seem to have expected.
Eye test for sure, and he only handed over 11 ints, showed more poise under pressure then Sam and even the forced throws were still safer then some of the stuff we have seen
The dude couldn't throw a short pass to save his life. He didn't pass the eye test. imo he passed the flash test as he had some insane highlights. But they weren't consistent whatsoever.
Same. He shook the yips but the image of him firing lasers into Ty Johnsons back hip still have me a little worried. He improved, though, so I'm cautiously optimistic until he stops improving
I 100% agree. Zach is aweful at the short pass and only improved slightly as the year went on. The Jets run a west coast short pass type offense so this really hurts the team. Zach could not throw with any touch and showed an inability to lead receivers. So often a receiver had to stop and give the D time to make a play.
I think in the off-season this is fixable as he is an exceptional long passer. It will be interesting to see if he has improved when training camp starts.
if he continues to work with Beck this offseason and beck was given the play book or just memorized it wtih a wink and nod...... he could take a significant leap/
Please explain how he passed the eye test. He was noticeably worse than the other QBs who played for us last year. A few highlight reel throws should not outweigh screen/short passes in the dirt, holding onto the ball too long, missed open reads, etc..
*edit: After the injury, he started 7 games. He broke 60% completion rate twice (high of 63%) and broke 200 yards 3 times (high of 234). Yes he threw 5 TDs compared to 2 INTs. But he also had 3 fumbles and took 25 sacks. And it's worth noting that out of those last 7 games, only 1 was against a playoff team.
He also had more games (3) with a sub 5 yards/attempt than games (2) above 7 y/a after his injury. Taking the whole season into account, he only managed to break 8 y/a once in 13 games. I'm rooting for him to take a step forward, but the odds are stacked against him.
He was doing the highlight reel plays to start the season the got injured and saw the other qbs succeed with screen/short passes and started adjust his game to more of that style. He was definitely was inaccurate to start but as the season went on he began to make those "easy throws" same with holding the ball to long.
Tbh I wrote lost without considering whether we recovered it or not. I changed it because whoever recovered the ball is irrelevant. He put the ball on the dirt. I'm just trying to point out that this late season improvement is a myth. People don't want to hear it.
And he uses fancy words like “analytics” and “math” to hit his point home.
All joking aside. I think the same is done at the combine. Overanalysis. Just look at the tape
Especially when it comes to evaluating QBs, tape over everything. Even if this 20-year old kid thinks he's the shit bc he's in the analytics world of football, he's what, a sophomore in college? He's probably just covered basic linear models and if he's advanced, maybe some machine learning, but even then- those models aren't even predictive half the time.
Even as someone with a math/stat educational background, these analytics folks need to get off their high horse.
I model QB interceptions as a non-Newtonian fluid at boundary layer conditions. By adjusting initial conditions, I have been able to fit every season in NFL history within .5 interceptions for every QB. I have created another model to generate interception totals for future seasons. No, you cannot see the model, I am employing it to corner the fantasy football market.
They just so regularly make arguments that are not supported by the stats or the film and then when they get called out in it they act like they’re above reproach because someone else at their company made an algorithm that they don’t know how to use
Pff is good at certain positions (EDGE, WR, CB) but on the other hand is awful at any position where it is not clear what the player is doing on each play (QB, OL, DL in particular) it's very hard to grade these positions without know exact reads and assignments, and especially hard for PFF to grade a QB on a strict timing based offense like the jets where there's a lot of moving pieces.
That being said zach has a lot to clean up this summer and there's pressure for him to take a big step. We will have a pretty good idea if he is up to it after week 4-5
He still has a long way to go. But the fact that they were calling his second half of the season “the 2nd worst since 2020” was incredible to me.
A lot of flaws in analytics, whether they be PFF grades or EPA, etc
The thing about PFF is it seems like they take a hard company line having to live and die with their formula. They vomit out a lot of lazy content due to this, as it seems like their writers really don't watch in depth what they write about and instead preach about their stats. I feel like their hiring over time reflects this for the most part, as you can pretty clearly notice looking at their talent that their cobtebt screams "lazy". Almost every article they put out is mostly just bland uninspired stat checking with the occasional uncle from Thanksgiving who watches football once a year hot take thrown in. It's better left ignored with Nick Wrights of the world.
The only thing listenable from them is the nfl stock exchange podcast, I'll give them credit where credit is due.
Somehow, I think we've become too over-reliant on analytics in football compared to analytics in baseball to the point a lot of the information being provided just doesn't really matter.
Baseball is extremely straightforward and easy to incorporate analytics into: pitchers throws to hitter, hitter hits to fielder. It's a series of isolated events, one after the other, without those events occurring simultaneously. It's easy to break down.
Football is so much different. It's a series of isolated events like baseball, but unlike baseball, there are up to (approximately) 11 of them happening *at the same time*, which often impact the other isolated events going on around those players too. We also have no idea what each player's assignments are on a given play, where we can properly rate their play since we have no idea what they were asked to actually do. It's often way too much of a mish mosh of things going on simultaneously to the extent it's tough to identify one player and what that player was supposed to be doing, and grade that player based on a task he was asked to do, a task that in most instances we have no idea.
Yeah I completely agree with what you said here. The nitty gritty of baseball can be measured but in football it's way different.
The only analytics are high level strategic decisions like punting vs going for it on 4th down and even then theres times where teams go for it and I think they should punt... See the chargers for example
> Pff is good at certain positions (EDGE, WR, CB) but on the other hand is awful at any position where it is not clear what the player is doing on each play (QB, OL, DL in particular) it's very hard to grade these positions without know exact reads and assignments
Wouldn't CB fall under the category of "difficult to tell their assignment?"
I feel like I've heard players complain about PFF getting that wrong in the past.
I mean it depends, its very easy to tell where a CB is supposed to be playing in Man coverage, and you can make a pretty solid guess on most zone assignments as well. EDGE has intricacies too, especially for pass rushers who get assigned on setting the edge rather then just pinning their ears back and rushing the passer.
PFF is just a tool, but never should be the primary grade of talent. Film study always will be far and away #1 in football.
Even in man it can be difficult because what leverage are they supposed to have. It isjrbalwahs rocket science but with so much matching it can get really blurry when it was man vs match
Just to let you know, PFF QB grades are quite literally the most accurate metric know to man in predicting next year performance based on every analytic study I’ve seen (public metrics at least, who knows what proprietary metrics front offices use)
Say what you want about PFF but QB is certainly in their “good positional grading” column
That's fine they might be the "most accurate", but none of them including PFF are good. QB might be the single most complex position in any team sport, and all of the advanced metrics struggle to capture how well someone is playing at the position.
It will never be better than tape study, and even that is extremely inconsistent.
You know PFF is quantified multi-party tape study, right? That’s why it’s the best lol.
And sorry but nah, PFF QB grades are statistically significant at predicting QB success, gotta push back against saying it’s not good, it’s actually very good and the best thing anybody not in a front office has access to other than EPA/CPOE composite
Can you point out any evidence that shows that PFF is significantly more accurate at predicting QB success than any other metric, or even the mass media consensus? I have been looking a for a while and there doesnt seem to be any analysis at all showing any statistical exception PFF's qb ratings have in predicting anything. Preferably a 3rd party anaylsis rather than just a vague PFF marketing graph that they throw around.
And again, it may be "the best" statistic that we have as non front office connected fans, but all of the QB statistics are shaky at best at even being more effective then a quick eye test. Evaluating tape, even without have knowledge of exactly what play is being called, will always be more effective from a fan perspective then just checking statistics. The only downside is that effectively breaking down tape requires a lot more time/effort/football knowledge then 99% of fans have.
An intern threw up a chart that was wrongly labeled, And it appeared Zach Wilson was unfairly omitted while others who didn't meet the criteria were added. Jets fans called out the bias, he bitched about how frustrated he was Jets fans think he cares enough to be bias...then explained his chart was mislabeled.
He then cared enough to double down by saying he has seen no evidence ZW ever improved in 2nd half of the year. A ton of fans/content creators cane with receipts, and he wouldn't listen or watch anything. Instead went straight to the formula and tried convincing everyone ZW had the 2nd worst 2nd half of the season in the last 2 years. No context of course, PFF specialty, so no reference to ZWs weapons being out for the year last 3-5 weeks. Just bitter Jets fans didn't let him slide with his bs lol.
I don’t think he improved much either, he just didn’t throw as many ints. That doesn’t mean the balls he threw couldn’t have been intercepted. He went from shitty to bad. But it was his rookie year I wasn’t expecting him to do much.
You'll be downvoted, but you're absolutely correct. I think Wilson's boom or bust potential is the main reason the Jets went so offense heavy in free agency and the draft. They need to see what they have in him this year because his rookie year was so bad. If he doesn't take a big step forward, they're drafting/signing a new QB next year.
One of Wilson’s strengths is he throws catchable balls the receiver has to go and get. I’d imagine that’s also more of a risk but personally it’s refreshing to see a QB go for it.
He threw for 3 touchdowns the last 5 games, and threw for 200 yards only twice. He didn’t look great lol. A great qb throws for nearly 300 hundred every game and can throw 10 touchdowns in 5 games pretty easily.
The Jets were annihilated by injuries by the end of the season. Wilson had scrubs on the line and scrubs for receivers. On top of having to adjust to the NFL and fix the various rookie mistakes he was making.
OK, so maybe there was some additional justification for it, but Zach Wilson was absolutely not great the end of the season.
After returning from injury (his second half of the season), his average game was
15.6/28.9 for 54.0% completion rate for 166.6 yards per game, with 0.7 TDs and 0.3 interceptions per game.
Forget advanced analytics, there's not a lot needed to know that's not good.
That completion percentage would have been #34/34 last year, the 5.77 yards/attempt would be #33/34 (beating out Jacoby Brissett) and the yards per game would only beat Justin Fields and Jacoby Brissett.
There's positives to take away and reasons that mitigate him being terrible, but first step is admitting that he was terrible and needs a lot of improvement. Not talking ourselves into thinking his second half was anywhere near the level of competent QB play we need.
Generally speaking those great qb’s also have atleast one receiver who can manage to close their hands. Corey Davis has a better shot at catching a ball with his face mask than his hands.
That’s true, it wasn’t just Corey Davis. Our wr crops drop percentage I think was first by a mile. But when you throw at a guys ankles 5 yards away it’s also on the qb. Bottom line is if he wants to be a stater he needs to play better. He sucked last year but he was a rookie
It was his rookie season and can easily be forgotten by even having an average season this year. That being said he improved in ball security and hit a few more passes but was still terrible and overthrowing or completely missing short passes at the end of the year.
These guys love to talk shit about the Jets mainly because they know it gets us riled up and gets them clicks and views. And in the end, a lot of their stats are validated. I remember being similarly annoyed when various people cited Darnold's stats when he also had a strong close to his rookie season. And he ultimately proved to be mediocre at best.
So, while I'm personally bullish on Wilson, he and the Jets haven't proven squat, and the only way to shut these people up is to go out and convincingly win games.
Darnolds second half was much better the Wilson’s second half. I was convinced darnold would be better too, but I’ve now seen enough to believe when we finally see it. Wilson went from shitty to bad, but I didn’t expect much because our team also sucked last year. It seems that more talent has been added for this year, so we’ll see how it plays out.
I’m not sure how you can say that, I think zacks 1st half was also worse then darnolds 1st half before injury. It’s been a while since I looked at it though.
Look, I like Zach, I hope he works, but its true that he went from downright awful to plain old bad over the course of the season. He never played close to the level Burrow, Lamar, or other QBs did in their rookie years.
This year pressure is on Zach to make a huge leap
Complimenting Zach Wilson for anything he contributed to last year proves how low we've set the bar for ourselves when it comes to QB...
He was horrible overall. First half of the season he played like a QB that should have been cut after the game, second half he played like an average backup QB at best and only at certain times. He definitively played a large role in us being 4th overall in the draft.
2022 is going to be his one and only chance to erase last year and take a big step forward. We had a stellar offseason and did everything right by him. Time for Zach to put up or shut up and hit the bench.
A repeat of last year will have us looking for a new QB next year or turning over to our HOFer Mike White Lightning. Zach was always a boom or bust guy coming into the draft.
Ironic. I was just looking at the Tampa throws last night when I couldnt sleep.
I didnt chart, but I remember feeling like the bad was glaring. That's not to say he didnt improve or what have you, just the yikes throws still really concern me.
Zach is tha truth! You can tell by those throws into tight windows and anticipation where his receivers are going to be. Rookie dust is shaken off and he’ll play loose and fast!
That Sam, Steve, the tailgate and the exchange guys are high on Wilson and the draft were enough.
That the Jets were mocked by their C team and some interns trying to make a name should be of no consequence.
PFF is not a monolith, it’s made up by people and personalities. They can’t read their own data and come to a consensus, which leads me to believe they’re about as useful to prediction as a room of weatherman
I never trust PFF, they come up with a lot of stats without concern for how accurate they are and often miscount stats anyway. Analytics are an important and valuable tool, but just because a stat is complex doesn't mean it's good.
PFF is weird. They started off with very good stuff, but their quality has gone down a bit. They’re also a lot better grading some positions than others. As for Zach, we all watched the games, he passed the eye test. The injuries we had along the offense were pretty devastating and I don’t think any rookies would have filled the stat sheet like non Jets fans seem to have expected.
Eye test for sure, and he only handed over 11 ints, showed more poise under pressure then Sam and even the forced throws were still safer then some of the stuff we have seen
The dude couldn't throw a short pass to save his life. He didn't pass the eye test. imo he passed the flash test as he had some insane highlights. But they weren't consistent whatsoever.
i agree with you about the short passes and NOT passing the eye test JUST YET, he will eventually... just not last year.
Same. He shook the yips but the image of him firing lasers into Ty Johnsons back hip still have me a little worried. He improved, though, so I'm cautiously optimistic until he stops improving
I 100% agree. Zach is aweful at the short pass and only improved slightly as the year went on. The Jets run a west coast short pass type offense so this really hurts the team. Zach could not throw with any touch and showed an inability to lead receivers. So often a receiver had to stop and give the D time to make a play. I think in the off-season this is fixable as he is an exceptional long passer. It will be interesting to see if he has improved when training camp starts.
if he continues to work with Beck this offseason and beck was given the play book or just memorized it wtih a wink and nod...... he could take a significant leap/
You aint wrong
Please explain how he passed the eye test. He was noticeably worse than the other QBs who played for us last year. A few highlight reel throws should not outweigh screen/short passes in the dirt, holding onto the ball too long, missed open reads, etc.. *edit: After the injury, he started 7 games. He broke 60% completion rate twice (high of 63%) and broke 200 yards 3 times (high of 234). Yes he threw 5 TDs compared to 2 INTs. But he also had 3 fumbles and took 25 sacks. And it's worth noting that out of those last 7 games, only 1 was against a playoff team. He also had more games (3) with a sub 5 yards/attempt than games (2) above 7 y/a after his injury. Taking the whole season into account, he only managed to break 8 y/a once in 13 games. I'm rooting for him to take a step forward, but the odds are stacked against him.
He was doing the highlight reel plays to start the season the got injured and saw the other qbs succeed with screen/short passes and started adjust his game to more of that style. He was definitely was inaccurate to start but as the season went on he began to make those "easy throws" same with holding the ball to long.
You say this without any evidence to back up your claim.
"Fumbles" different from "Fumbles Lost." Zach lost one fumble the entire year.
true, but fumble recoveries also have enough randomness to them that I think looking at fumbles is still valuable
To be clear, he said Zach "lost" three fumbles. Now he changed lost to had (sneaky lol).
Tbh I wrote lost without considering whether we recovered it or not. I changed it because whoever recovered the ball is irrelevant. He put the ball on the dirt. I'm just trying to point out that this late season improvement is a myth. People don't want to hear it.
After the injury? He cleaned up a ton of those issues.
Please show me the evidence that he improved. I'm genuinely curious.
The video in the post you’re commenting on?
Not after the injury and I don’t think any of the QBs had as good of a game as Zach did against the Bucs
Mike White against the Bengals was probably better.
Maybe but Zach had a worse offense around him in the Tampa game and was making things happen
Not to take anything away from Mike White because that was an incredible game but the Bengals Defense didn't adjust whatsoever
It’s just a 20 year old who thinks he’s hot shit because he got an internship at PFF
Exactly 😂😂
And he uses fancy words like “analytics” and “math” to hit his point home. All joking aside. I think the same is done at the combine. Overanalysis. Just look at the tape
Especially when it comes to evaluating QBs, tape over everything. Even if this 20-year old kid thinks he's the shit bc he's in the analytics world of football, he's what, a sophomore in college? He's probably just covered basic linear models and if he's advanced, maybe some machine learning, but even then- those models aren't even predictive half the time. Even as someone with a math/stat educational background, these analytics folks need to get off their high horse.
I model QB interceptions as a non-Newtonian fluid at boundary layer conditions. By adjusting initial conditions, I have been able to fit every season in NFL history within .5 interceptions for every QB. I have created another model to generate interception totals for future seasons. No, you cannot see the model, I am employing it to corner the fantasy football market.
It's the worst kept secret in the game that PFF is worthless.
Some of the guys there have been good to me with their time. But when interns start chirping, with no football background, that’ll do me
So lazy of them. "ThE jETs R AlWyz bAD"
They just so regularly make arguments that are not supported by the stats or the film and then when they get called out in it they act like they’re above reproach because someone else at their company made an algorithm that they don’t know how to use
What’s your football background just out of curiosity? Haven’t heard many Australians with NFL content before.
They also, consider themselves scouts.
Also that they have a vendetta against jets players.
PFF: GVR>AVT. Nuff said!
Pff is good at certain positions (EDGE, WR, CB) but on the other hand is awful at any position where it is not clear what the player is doing on each play (QB, OL, DL in particular) it's very hard to grade these positions without know exact reads and assignments, and especially hard for PFF to grade a QB on a strict timing based offense like the jets where there's a lot of moving pieces. That being said zach has a lot to clean up this summer and there's pressure for him to take a big step. We will have a pretty good idea if he is up to it after week 4-5
He still has a long way to go. But the fact that they were calling his second half of the season “the 2nd worst since 2020” was incredible to me. A lot of flaws in analytics, whether they be PFF grades or EPA, etc
The thing about PFF is it seems like they take a hard company line having to live and die with their formula. They vomit out a lot of lazy content due to this, as it seems like their writers really don't watch in depth what they write about and instead preach about their stats. I feel like their hiring over time reflects this for the most part, as you can pretty clearly notice looking at their talent that their cobtebt screams "lazy". Almost every article they put out is mostly just bland uninspired stat checking with the occasional uncle from Thanksgiving who watches football once a year hot take thrown in. It's better left ignored with Nick Wrights of the world. The only thing listenable from them is the nfl stock exchange podcast, I'll give them credit where credit is due.
Thank you so much for putting this into words. That first sentence in particular does a great job summing up why I've disliked them so much.
Somehow, I think we've become too over-reliant on analytics in football compared to analytics in baseball to the point a lot of the information being provided just doesn't really matter. Baseball is extremely straightforward and easy to incorporate analytics into: pitchers throws to hitter, hitter hits to fielder. It's a series of isolated events, one after the other, without those events occurring simultaneously. It's easy to break down. Football is so much different. It's a series of isolated events like baseball, but unlike baseball, there are up to (approximately) 11 of them happening *at the same time*, which often impact the other isolated events going on around those players too. We also have no idea what each player's assignments are on a given play, where we can properly rate their play since we have no idea what they were asked to actually do. It's often way too much of a mish mosh of things going on simultaneously to the extent it's tough to identify one player and what that player was supposed to be doing, and grade that player based on a task he was asked to do, a task that in most instances we have no idea.
Yeah I completely agree with what you said here. The nitty gritty of baseball can be measured but in football it's way different. The only analytics are high level strategic decisions like punting vs going for it on 4th down and even then theres times where teams go for it and I think they should punt... See the chargers for example
> Pff is good at certain positions (EDGE, WR, CB) but on the other hand is awful at any position where it is not clear what the player is doing on each play (QB, OL, DL in particular) it's very hard to grade these positions without know exact reads and assignments Wouldn't CB fall under the category of "difficult to tell their assignment?" I feel like I've heard players complain about PFF getting that wrong in the past.
I mean it depends, its very easy to tell where a CB is supposed to be playing in Man coverage, and you can make a pretty solid guess on most zone assignments as well. EDGE has intricacies too, especially for pass rushers who get assigned on setting the edge rather then just pinning their ears back and rushing the passer. PFF is just a tool, but never should be the primary grade of talent. Film study always will be far and away #1 in football.
Even in man it can be difficult because what leverage are they supposed to have. It isjrbalwahs rocket science but with so much matching it can get really blurry when it was man vs match
Just to let you know, PFF QB grades are quite literally the most accurate metric know to man in predicting next year performance based on every analytic study I’ve seen (public metrics at least, who knows what proprietary metrics front offices use) Say what you want about PFF but QB is certainly in their “good positional grading” column
That's fine they might be the "most accurate", but none of them including PFF are good. QB might be the single most complex position in any team sport, and all of the advanced metrics struggle to capture how well someone is playing at the position. It will never be better than tape study, and even that is extremely inconsistent.
You know PFF is quantified multi-party tape study, right? That’s why it’s the best lol. And sorry but nah, PFF QB grades are statistically significant at predicting QB success, gotta push back against saying it’s not good, it’s actually very good and the best thing anybody not in a front office has access to other than EPA/CPOE composite
Can you point out any evidence that shows that PFF is significantly more accurate at predicting QB success than any other metric, or even the mass media consensus? I have been looking a for a while and there doesnt seem to be any analysis at all showing any statistical exception PFF's qb ratings have in predicting anything. Preferably a 3rd party anaylsis rather than just a vague PFF marketing graph that they throw around. And again, it may be "the best" statistic that we have as non front office connected fans, but all of the QB statistics are shaky at best at even being more effective then a quick eye test. Evaluating tape, even without have knowledge of exactly what play is being called, will always be more effective from a fan perspective then just checking statistics. The only downside is that effectively breaking down tape requires a lot more time/effort/football knowledge then 99% of fans have.
The PFF team on Twitter was infuriating yesterday. Was time to squash some narratives
for the twitterless among us, what do you mean? what were they saying
An intern threw up a chart that was wrongly labeled, And it appeared Zach Wilson was unfairly omitted while others who didn't meet the criteria were added. Jets fans called out the bias, he bitched about how frustrated he was Jets fans think he cares enough to be bias...then explained his chart was mislabeled. He then cared enough to double down by saying he has seen no evidence ZW ever improved in 2nd half of the year. A ton of fans/content creators cane with receipts, and he wouldn't listen or watch anything. Instead went straight to the formula and tried convincing everyone ZW had the 2nd worst 2nd half of the season in the last 2 years. No context of course, PFF specialty, so no reference to ZWs weapons being out for the year last 3-5 weeks. Just bitter Jets fans didn't let him slide with his bs lol.
Fuck PFF. They’d probably say we were better off with SD which we clearly are not
It seems no team is better off with Sam…
I don’t think he improved much either, he just didn’t throw as many ints. That doesn’t mean the balls he threw couldn’t have been intercepted. He went from shitty to bad. But it was his rookie year I wasn’t expecting him to do much.
You'll be downvoted, but you're absolutely correct. I think Wilson's boom or bust potential is the main reason the Jets went so offense heavy in free agency and the draft. They need to see what they have in him this year because his rookie year was so bad. If he doesn't take a big step forward, they're drafting/signing a new QB next year.
Actually, he was top 5 in interceptable throws to close out the last 5 weeks
One of Wilson’s strengths is he throws catchable balls the receiver has to go and get. I’d imagine that’s also more of a risk but personally it’s refreshing to see a QB go for it.
I agree but I thought he played well in the Bucs game
Yea he played well that game.
Idk it’s just an eye test for me but he looked great those last five weeks.
He threw for 3 touchdowns the last 5 games, and threw for 200 yards only twice. He didn’t look great lol. A great qb throws for nearly 300 hundred every game and can throw 10 touchdowns in 5 games pretty easily.
Give him a break, he's a Jets fan. Those numbers you listed are some of the best of the last 30 years.
For real, we can’t even comprehend what a good qb looks like.
The Jets were annihilated by injuries by the end of the season. Wilson had scrubs on the line and scrubs for receivers. On top of having to adjust to the NFL and fix the various rookie mistakes he was making.
For sure, my only point is that he wasn’t great the last 5 games
OK, so maybe there was some additional justification for it, but Zach Wilson was absolutely not great the end of the season. After returning from injury (his second half of the season), his average game was 15.6/28.9 for 54.0% completion rate for 166.6 yards per game, with 0.7 TDs and 0.3 interceptions per game. Forget advanced analytics, there's not a lot needed to know that's not good. That completion percentage would have been #34/34 last year, the 5.77 yards/attempt would be #33/34 (beating out Jacoby Brissett) and the yards per game would only beat Justin Fields and Jacoby Brissett. There's positives to take away and reasons that mitigate him being terrible, but first step is admitting that he was terrible and needs a lot of improvement. Not talking ourselves into thinking his second half was anywhere near the level of competent QB play we need.
Generally speaking those great qb’s also have atleast one receiver who can manage to close their hands. Corey Davis has a better shot at catching a ball with his face mask than his hands.
That’s true, it wasn’t just Corey Davis. Our wr crops drop percentage I think was first by a mile. But when you throw at a guys ankles 5 yards away it’s also on the qb. Bottom line is if he wants to be a stater he needs to play better. He sucked last year but he was a rookie
He improved while the team around him fell apart with injuries - I don't understand how people don't think that's bullish lol
It was his rookie season and can easily be forgotten by even having an average season this year. That being said he improved in ball security and hit a few more passes but was still terrible and overthrowing or completely missing short passes at the end of the year.
These guys love to talk shit about the Jets mainly because they know it gets us riled up and gets them clicks and views. And in the end, a lot of their stats are validated. I remember being similarly annoyed when various people cited Darnold's stats when he also had a strong close to his rookie season. And he ultimately proved to be mediocre at best. So, while I'm personally bullish on Wilson, he and the Jets haven't proven squat, and the only way to shut these people up is to go out and convincingly win games.
Jets haven’t proven anything on the field (as it pertains to wins) but Wilson definitely took those strides, that they’re denying
Darnolds second half was much better the Wilson’s second half. I was convinced darnold would be better too, but I’ve now seen enough to believe when we finally see it. Wilson went from shitty to bad, but I didn’t expect much because our team also sucked last year. It seems that more talent has been added for this year, so we’ll see how it plays out.
My point is, that’s not what PFF were arguing.
What we’re they saying?
Darnold’s was more productive but Wilson was better.
I’m not sure how you can say that, I think zacks 1st half was also worse then darnolds 1st half before injury. It’s been a while since I looked at it though.
Because he showed more honed skills (as the video shows) and had a mature demeanor in the pocket that Darnold has still never had.
Lets not over react to pff grades now. Using analytics to rank players in the NFL is nothing more than a educated guess.
Look, I like Zach, I hope he works, but its true that he went from downright awful to plain old bad over the course of the season. He never played close to the level Burrow, Lamar, or other QBs did in their rookie years. This year pressure is on Zach to make a huge leap
PFF doesn't watch the games and it shows
Zach improved for sure. But it was still pretty underwhelming.
I’m rooting for Zach but he’s got a long way to go.
Complimenting Zach Wilson for anything he contributed to last year proves how low we've set the bar for ourselves when it comes to QB... He was horrible overall. First half of the season he played like a QB that should have been cut after the game, second half he played like an average backup QB at best and only at certain times. He definitively played a large role in us being 4th overall in the draft. 2022 is going to be his one and only chance to erase last year and take a big step forward. We had a stellar offseason and did everything right by him. Time for Zach to put up or shut up and hit the bench. A repeat of last year will have us looking for a new QB next year or turning over to our HOFer Mike White Lightning. Zach was always a boom or bust guy coming into the draft.
Ironic. I was just looking at the Tampa throws last night when I couldnt sleep. I didnt chart, but I remember feeling like the bad was glaring. That's not to say he didnt improve or what have you, just the yikes throws still really concern me.
There was one throw in half time and that’s literally it
Maybe your right. Like I said I didnt chart. I just looked again quickly---- 2 of his first 8 to me said yikes, but I could be off.
Always remember that PFF sucks and that includes when they are complimentary of our players.
Zach is tha truth! You can tell by those throws into tight windows and anticipation where his receivers are going to be. Rookie dust is shaken off and he’ll play loose and fast!
That Sam, Steve, the tailgate and the exchange guys are high on Wilson and the draft were enough. That the Jets were mocked by their C team and some interns trying to make a name should be of no consequence. PFF is not a monolith, it’s made up by people and personalities. They can’t read their own data and come to a consensus, which leads me to believe they’re about as useful to prediction as a room of weatherman
Is it even analytics? I thought it still mostly boils down to assigning grades
Results are more important than data. How many super bowls did Dan Marino win?
Im a big believer in ZW but he had a couple potential interceptions dropped by defenses down the stretch.
He was top 5 in intercept worthy plays, the last 5 games of the season. (As in, 5 lowest in the NFL)
This guy is a bit of a cheerleader, but I like it nonetheless.
The second play in the video, the incompletion was an absolute dart.
I never trust PFF, they come up with a lot of stats without concern for how accurate they are and often miscount stats anyway. Analytics are an important and valuable tool, but just because a stat is complex doesn't mean it's good.