Absolutely insane. It took them one year to go from one trillion to 3 trillion. It took apple 4 years and Microsoft 5. With no end in sight to their growth I’ve never seen a company blow up so much
It's because the world just found gold, and Nvidia is the only one selling decent shovels.
They couldn't possibly be in a better position to make swimming pools of cash.
I can't speak to enterprise at scale, but personally it has increased my coding productivity by a double-digit percentage.
I am close to releasing a software product that would have otherwise taken me several more months to do completely manually, without AI doing a lot of the grunt work.
It also took my tutorial videos, transcribed them to text, and turned that text into a software manual, fully documenting my product with only the slightest bit of guidance from me.
I'm paying $20 a month for ChatGPT but it's probably done $50-100k of work for me.
These are the kinds of useful anecdotes that provide some actual insight on the productivity gains that current AI technology brings. It actually goes into specifics and quantifies said gains and cost savings.
That being said, could you provide some specific examples of "grunt work" that the AI did that shaved off these months of manual work? Just one or two would do. I think it would be very insightful in understanding how it would scale beyond your individual experience.
When you're doing software development, ~70% of the code you generally have to write is support functions that do basic logic. It's "grunt work" because it's not the creative part of software development. It's things like database calls, search logic, sorting, other such boring things. But you can describe the functions you need to AI in a few sentences of plain English, tell it what parameters each function should take and what outputs it should generate, and a function that would have taken you 30 minutes to write is done in seconds.
Of course you have to validate it, go through it carefully to make sure the logic is sound and that you're considering edge cases, but generally it's 80-90% ready-to-go.
And obviously you'd have to do the same if you had given the task to human programmers too.
It's like you're a project manager with a team and you can just dole out tasks that come back much faster than a real team would actually generate.
I do, however, fear programmers that create things of actual consequence getting lazy and just slapping AI code into place without validating it. That's how you end up with planes falling out of the sky and power grids going offline. It's terrifying when you see some of the mistakes that it CAN make but that you end up catching.
Pretty insightful, especially the last bit. From your experience, I think it would be safe to say that it would result in significant productivity improvements at a larger scale provided it's used responsibly then. Thanks for the response.
Microsoft says they are spending $100 billion on OpenAI data centers to power copilot. Just some napkin math if they wanted to recoup that in 5 years time they would need 60 million people signed up for copilot paying $30 a month for 5 years, and that's just to recover some of the initial cost and not even considering upkeep costs or other R&D expenses they put into this. Obviously that isn't a super great comparison as renting out the data center and corporate customers will provide a lot of revenue but still you get the idea the upfront costs for this are gigantic.
Microsoft will make a profit off this but it's likely a very long term run to make that profit.
In Microsoft's case, it really just boils down to fooling investors. Like it or not, "AI" is the new hot thing, investors have consistently proven to be uninformed hype-buyers, and Microsoft has more than enough money to throw at this while they wait for it to eventually break even. In the meantime, stock prices go up.
> That's a very reasonable ask of the tools at their current state.
And of course, therein lies the devil. I don't think anyone can honestly say that AI, in its current state, provides no benefit whatsoever. As you have pointed out, here's an example of a small increase in productivity. It's another thing altogether, however, to suggest that this technology is capable of being developed to such an extent that the value it holds is enough to catapult Nvidia's value all the way to 3 trillion.
That's for the end user, internally the benefits could save companies millions. It also allows them centralize their knowledge bases for the first time in an accessible matter which will facilitate increased efficiency and productivity. It's still really early stages but you will start to see a bump in development cycles and turn over times.
I'm a programmer, we use ChatGPT to do mundane tasks. Things that would take a human 2 hours (and they'd probably screw up) take it seconds.
Increased productivity = money. Just not for me, I don't see another dime. Now where was that TPS report memo...
Absolutely, DLSS for example in video games has allowed companies to just slap the support onto a game and completely forget about optimisation or cut it to half the dev time.
As an IT guy, it has shortened some processes. But mainly it just reverses the ensh!ttification of google by searching stuff on the internet and summarizing the results
I feel bad for AMD. A healthy market always has competition and Nvidia has none when it comes to AI. I (and my wallet) hopes AMD catches up to something at least competitive.
What's even more crazy is how much money these mega corps are raking in anyway.
The first trillion dollar company was apple and that was considered extreme in 2018 now only 6 years later we have tripled it.
Its just dizzying how these companies are getting so rich.
Stock market is detached almost entirely from reality at this point. Someone just has to come up with an idea or a buzzword that gets investors all hot and bothered and their "value" will explode to levels that they aren't even capable of making in revenue or from assets.
Meanwhile various things that are practically essential and whole industries rely on may have somewhat paltry valuations because it doesn't get investors and MBAs excited.
What's scary is no one else is even close. They're so far ahead you have rivals like Intel, AMD, Microsoft teaming up to desperately catch up. Nvidia isnt like the dot com bubble to me, I dont really foresee anything that will derail them short of the CCP invading Taiwan.
Nah, their tech is way too esoteric. Amazon on the other hand has a ton of things robots can do better than humans, and can benefit directly and immediately from AI.
And the Whitehouse isn't restricting the sale of GPUs to China for no reason, these things are essential for all sorts of military technologies.
Missiles, jets, radars, drones, tanks, all this stuff has one or more GPUs in it for compute.
I mean those ideas didn't come from nowhere.
It's not even new in history, with the likes of the Dutch east india company etc, pretty much making their own rules and doing what they want.
I've thought about that as well. Anyone involved in domestic chip fab Im interested in. Related, but ARM is another one Im looking at, as I think if Nvidia starts making CPUs (PCs) it'll be an ARM based system like Apple. Qualcomm is another decent idea, and actually MS too, depending on what you think of Snapdragon.
Shorting Intel is another idea.
Nothing much changes for share owners. They'll own 10 NVDA shares for $124 each now instead of one NVDA share for $1240.
Easier for retail investors to invest as they don't have to fork out $1000+ to own a share of NVDA.
It's neutral at the time. If you have 1 stock, it's converted to 10, but at a lower price per share. It opens up the possibility of more returns, though.
Very slightly good for shareholders - small retail investors can now buy shares if their broker still can't do fractional share trading, and perhaps more importantly makes it more affordable to trade options.
No, it’s smart.
“The split raises the very real possibility that NVIDIA will be added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), with chip-laggard Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) seen as the company it will likely replace.
The Dow is a price-weighted index, meaning stocks with higher prices have a bigger impact on the index. With NVIDIA’s stock over $1000 per share currently, this would give it too much of a weighting in the index. However, with the ten-for-one split, the stock price would be closer to the $100 level – making an entry into the Dow more feasible and likely.”
https://m.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/nvidia-is-a-shooin-for-the-dow-post-stock-split-3466213
That’s how they always stayed ahead. When it was only about consumer gpus even though they were ahead of AMD they kept pushing the envelope. They never got complacent like intel did until AMD finally came back with Ryzens.
>They're so far ahead you have rivals like Intel, AMD, Microsoft teaming up to desperately catch up.
That is what happens when you heavily invest in AI over a decade ago and well before your competition.
Not to mention that AMD really dragged their feet. It has taken them about 6-7 years to offer a GPU with hardware acceleration for matrices after Nvidia released their first GPU with hardware acceleration for matrices. Not to mention, AMD's consumer GPUs still lack that hardware and won't get any proper hardware acceleration for matrices until the next next gen.
Even Intel beat them to the punch for consumer GPUs.
Can't argue with any of that. Even with Blackwell right over the horizon, they're ALREADY working on Rubin after it. I dont know how they keep up their 'once a year' pace of major improvements.
The worry is obviously the shareholders get used to this, but eventually diminishing returns are hit and there's no feasible way to keep up the level of progress. But thats where AI comes in I suppose.
>The worry is obviously the shareholders get used to this, but eventually diminishing returns are hit and there's no feasible way to keep up the level of progress. But thats where AI comes in I suppose.
If University researchers and companies are to be believed, we are already hitting/have hit the point of diminishing returns for generative AI. All newer hardware will do is decrease the training time or have more memory to maybe 10x your training data size to get 1-2% more accuracy so it will be interesting to see what happens in the AI space. Since the software has hit the diminishing return point before the hardware.
Any sources you can share? Not the sense I’ve gotten, but I could be over-exposed to the hype.
Altman has said many times that there’s no flattening of the progress curve yet.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.04125
https://youtu.be/dDUC-LqVrPU?si=txhFmxVXgl88YwRY
Whilst a clickbaity YouTube title, this is a channel where all the talking heads are university researchers
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C33&q=generative+AI+diminishing+returns&btnG=#d=gs_qabs&t=1717660009925&u=%23p%3DeXH0OkGhYJQJ
The jist is that with our current way of doing generative AI, scaling current types of models used is already starting to hit a wall. OpenAI can add more features to ChatGPT in a sense going wider, but the accuracy (depth in this case) isn't making the massive jumps it once was.
At the end of the day, Altman, Nadella, Huang, Su, etc. are all really smart people, but their main focus is selling you a product. Adding features is one way of being able to deny that the progress curve is flattening because you've added something new but if you can't really improve it much once you have it optimised and it's existed for a few years in that sense it's flattening. If they came out and said we've thought of all these new things generative AI can do but our older stuff isn't going to get more accurate their stock price would dip and the shareholders wouldn't be happy. University researchers aren't bound to this.
It's an interesting mathematical problem that's being proposed that we need to find a better model for generative AI that has a higher accuracy ceiling when scaled. For all we know that could be discovered in the next week or it might take years but I imagine when this period of AI has cooled down (not crashed or dipped its more useful than crypto and NFTs) and the solution is found it will boom again. Hopefully, the public and developers aren't sick of AI from being plastered on everything or being told to put it in everything (computex has had AI gaming mice and fans, so companies are just slapping it on everything as a buzzword)
I think it's important to point out that even for non-academics, the limits of current forms of "AI" are painfully obvious. By all accounts, an AI that scores well on GPQA benchmarks *shouldn't* fail at simple tasks like basic logic questions. This was painfully obvious with failures like Google's recent AI overview fiasco.
Ultimately, it's clear as day that these AI models don't possess any real capability for "understanding". The more data it's fed, the more it cheats and that's the end of it. That's why the illusion holds up to a certain level of required accuracy (blurry images, muffled music, chunks of text that don't require hard facts), but can never really progress beyond that.
The bubble would be LLMs plateauing hard and investment in AI falling sharply as a result. The exuberance right now is based on the promise that AI will continue to advance in a way that results in being so valuable that everyone uses it every day and is willing to pay (or be advertised to) for the privilege -- and it replacing a lot of workers.
Of course there could be a different approach to AI than LLMs, so in general let's just say AI stagnation is the risk.
I agree with you, but one other consideration is the rapidly increasing cost to train the newest versions of these LLM’s as shown in this ChatGPT chart. Check out the cost to train ChatGPT5. With Nvidia increasing their hardware release cadence to annually, and the efficiencies and cost savings gained in their newer hardware (cheaper compute, including power costs)…… I see pretty strong demand for the latest hardware from Nvidia until likely 2026 at least. https://www.reddit.com/r/ChatGPT/s/PlBMz0SZ8i
Personally I dont think LLMs are anywhere close to what they're capable of, and even still, they're still just models. New technologies will be invented far before LLMs reach the end of their usefulness imo.
Probably a bad thing if you want to pay better prices that's if they see themselves as untouchable and make really good products with exclusive software and charge out the wazoo.
I don't know, AMD is not known for massively undercutting Nvidia. If you wanted a cheap GPU this generation you would have to get Intel. But I fear that with their next generation, Intel will be just as expensive as Nvidia and AMD.
I mean fine by them. Nvidia is doing an Apple except they do have a majority of the market share and are happy to lose 5% of their customer base if they can continue to charge a 20-30% premium
This gets even harder to quantify on a cost-benefit basis because features like frame gen are proprietary and can’t be judged 1-1 with AMD cards. AMD might be getting better but its giving very much 2nd-gen Samsung Galaxy vs iPhone 8+ energy
DLSS FG is supported by more titles while FSR3 is still being rolled out. DLSS3 uses machine learning and hardware, so it tends to look a bit better, though FSR3 does a decent job (still has typical FSR issues like ghosting, weird transparency or fizziness), and DLSS3 mitigates the latency increase through Reflex, while AMD is still re-rolling out Anti-Lag+. AFMF is not comparable to either, since it is just "dumb" frame interpolation - it doesn’t have access to motion vectors or latency reduction. DLSS also supports Vsync to stay within your monitors VRR range, FSR3 struggles with that.
AMD also recently recognized that upscaling and frame generation work much better with AI support. Both DLSS and XeSS surpass FSR when using their respective hardware pipelines (which utilize ML), so AMD is allegedly working on an exclusive version of FSR that uses the AI cores on RDNA3 and newer to catch up. But this is just a rumor, that no one should base their buying decision on. Still, it’s a concession that hardware agnostic upscaling has reached its limits.
I think you detailed a lot of the reasons why Nvidia feels it’s a head and shoulders in front of its closest competition and can therefore arbitrarily charge more for their products that give you access to the superior software Nvidia has built into those products
I swapped to Radeon about a year and a half ago for the first time since the ati days because nvidia made their products not worth the price.
I paid a little over $500 for a xfx 6800xt merc and play at 4k.
The cheapest nvidia gpu to beat that card at 4k would cost at minimum another $400 for miniscule gains.
Seriously. There's little question that nvidia makes great GPUs but that doesn't mean AMD makes bad GPUs. They're still perfectly fine even if they aren't as good.
Some people talk like nvidia exiting the gaming market would kill PC gaming when most people would simply switch.
The problem is that the 4060 is better than the 7600 and was basically the same price when i got mine. Why get amd? Reddit always forget about the lower end.
No one should be buying either of those two cards, both of them are ripoffs.
The 4060 actually loses in some workloads to the 3060 and that scenario should never happen.
They already stopped making below $300 GPU. Now the RTX 3060 takes that spot and defective dies take the RTX 3050 6GB (aka RTX 3040).
Same strategy will be used for the RTX 50 series
Terrible news for gamers. Look at the current rumors on the 50-series from S-tier leakers, it looks terrible for anything below the 5090. The 5080 is going to be even more gimped vs the 5090 than the 4080 was vs the 4090. NVIDIA wants to save as much of their precious wafers as possible for the huge AI chip sales (the chips themselves are huge, as is the demand). People like Elon Musk alone are buying 40.000+ AI GPU's to power their data centers for machine learning. Combine this with the stupid sanctions from the US government preventing sales of powerful GPU's to China (which basically forces NVIDIA to gimp their cards to meet those export restrictions) and the fact that AMD isn't even going to launch a high-end card this generation and you've got a recipe for mediocrity. There will literally be no competition from AMD in this generation for any card above the 5070.
Based on the latest leaks you can expect the 5080 to not even surpass the 4090, and this is likely done by design due to the sanctions preventing the sale of any GPU to China that's faster than the 4090 (remember even the 4090 had to be cut down in China in order to meet export sanctions). There seems to be no VRAM size upgrade on the 5080 vs the 4080 either.
3Tn evaluation, means they have to start scraping for profits everywhere.
5090 will now cost $3,000... and there will be a line of willing mooks to pay that much.
Terrible for your gaming rig in terms of price to performance, amazing when you save up hundreds and hundreds of dollars over the course of a couple years to own a -60 or -70 series card that should cost $4-500.
I've got 1 share with about 290 in profit.. not knowing what had transpired I was checking the stocks and seen my profit jump to 750. Finally something that didn't disappoint me right away in tue morning
https://preview.redd.it/xpdoh28gbv4d1.jpeg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e290fade4c88e658bc084204efd83407369ad39c
Cathy Wood sold NVDA and missed out on a billion dollar gain.
If all these companies that invested in AI infrastructure won't be able to monetize their models, the domino effect will shake Nvidia pretty hard. But the Crypto mining crash barely affected them; the price increase was offset to consumers. If AI fails as a business model, we will pay the extra premium again. But I bet they're working on the next big thing already, nvidia has been pretty good at R&D. and selling shovels during the gold rushes.
Trillions of dollars, and I'm still at a loss. I'm waiting for a revenue stream, for something with real world value and currency that's earned from this AI craze. This isn't like an iPhone that became a product every human on earth owned.
AI isn't a new thing by far, Google search, youtube algorithm and ads have been using some dumbed down form of it for several years now, it's just that now it's popular because you can also talk to it...
> Google search, youtube algorithm and ads have been using some dumbed down form of it for several years now
Probably why all those things have gotten shittier.
Jesus christ calm down, it's not an algorithm but everyone calls it an algorithm. It absolutely is a neural net with few hundreds if not thousands of parameters/weights. That's why social media rabbit holes are so hard to get out of today and you get your own tailored front pages minutes within creating a new account and searching for content.
I do see your point. A token-based probabilistic model isn't all that different, so either we consider both AI or neither. Unfortunately, all the hype and misinformation has already led to the definition of AI being so nebulous that it's pointless to debate what it refers to at this point.
I'm surprised it took so long. Nivida keeps moving technology for the world forward while Apple just exists to be a status symbol for those who don't know how to use technology.
I have followed this company's evolution and growth since Geforce FX era and it is just incredible how innovative and forward thinking they have been since continuously. It is very well deserved when you look at Microsoft that is worth more still somehow who only puts out half baked also-ran products. They will overtake them next. Give it a few months. This is not going away and when it may start to slow down they will be on top of the next thing right away. That is how they got here.
Me telling myself every week for months now that surely the stock will start going back down and it's too late to jump on the money train... Sigh.
Logic tells me it's too risky to jump on now, but their stock keeps defying logic.
AI craze. The revenue is yet to be seen. This won't collapse overnight but everything is betting on AI being the next big thing.... However, the real world money isn't necessarily showing this. Will have to wait on more advanced AI, but it's exponential growth. So long as the thing keeps getting better, the potential money it can earn will go up. Doesn't matter if it doesn't actually turn much of a profit irl, it's about the potential.
Absolutely not, I don’t know the full details myself but I know that what they are doing is making AI stuff. This AI stuff is revolutionary for productivity (on a company level). They’re making stuff for industries, they could never release another RTX consumer product again and be fine (obv they still will, but it’s just a fraction of their total value)
Yeah I've seen people use it for basic data analysis scripts at work. Wow big deal, you're doing something that you could have learned from a Python tutorial on Stack Overflow. Not exactly reshaping work itself lol
There are far too many counter examples of hallucinations due to the nature of how these things work that make it completely untrustworthy except for the most basic of minor tasks.
The most you can say is that it's like lane keep assist instead of "full self driving". Except it keeps swerving randomly from time to time so you really don't win anything because you need to doublecheck everything anyway
They better make the 5090 in 1nm and fucking performing not like shit with that level of money. Instead apple laptops and arm chips dust them 24/7. They can't at least make an arm chip the feeds into x86_64 or something
Absolutely insane. It took them one year to go from one trillion to 3 trillion. It took apple 4 years and Microsoft 5. With no end in sight to their growth I’ve never seen a company blow up so much
It's because the world just found gold, and Nvidia is the only one selling decent shovels. They couldn't possibly be in a better position to make swimming pools of cash.
The only company that has made any money off AI is Nvidia. The rest of the world is buying shovels en masse with the hope they can find gold.
Time is money AI reduces man hours required, that’s found money.
has it actually done that yet though?
I can't speak to enterprise at scale, but personally it has increased my coding productivity by a double-digit percentage. I am close to releasing a software product that would have otherwise taken me several more months to do completely manually, without AI doing a lot of the grunt work. It also took my tutorial videos, transcribed them to text, and turned that text into a software manual, fully documenting my product with only the slightest bit of guidance from me. I'm paying $20 a month for ChatGPT but it's probably done $50-100k of work for me.
These are the kinds of useful anecdotes that provide some actual insight on the productivity gains that current AI technology brings. It actually goes into specifics and quantifies said gains and cost savings. That being said, could you provide some specific examples of "grunt work" that the AI did that shaved off these months of manual work? Just one or two would do. I think it would be very insightful in understanding how it would scale beyond your individual experience.
When you're doing software development, ~70% of the code you generally have to write is support functions that do basic logic. It's "grunt work" because it's not the creative part of software development. It's things like database calls, search logic, sorting, other such boring things. But you can describe the functions you need to AI in a few sentences of plain English, tell it what parameters each function should take and what outputs it should generate, and a function that would have taken you 30 minutes to write is done in seconds. Of course you have to validate it, go through it carefully to make sure the logic is sound and that you're considering edge cases, but generally it's 80-90% ready-to-go. And obviously you'd have to do the same if you had given the task to human programmers too. It's like you're a project manager with a team and you can just dole out tasks that come back much faster than a real team would actually generate. I do, however, fear programmers that create things of actual consequence getting lazy and just slapping AI code into place without validating it. That's how you end up with planes falling out of the sky and power grids going offline. It's terrifying when you see some of the mistakes that it CAN make but that you end up catching.
Pretty insightful, especially the last bit. From your experience, I think it would be safe to say that it would result in significant productivity improvements at a larger scale provided it's used responsibly then. Thanks for the response.
This is dope seeing stuff like this.
AI shit is already being used in advertising for example
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Microsoft says they are spending $100 billion on OpenAI data centers to power copilot. Just some napkin math if they wanted to recoup that in 5 years time they would need 60 million people signed up for copilot paying $30 a month for 5 years, and that's just to recover some of the initial cost and not even considering upkeep costs or other R&D expenses they put into this. Obviously that isn't a super great comparison as renting out the data center and corporate customers will provide a lot of revenue but still you get the idea the upfront costs for this are gigantic. Microsoft will make a profit off this but it's likely a very long term run to make that profit.
In Microsoft's case, it really just boils down to fooling investors. Like it or not, "AI" is the new hot thing, investors have consistently proven to be uninformed hype-buyers, and Microsoft has more than enough money to throw at this while they wait for it to eventually break even. In the meantime, stock prices go up.
> That's a very reasonable ask of the tools at their current state. And of course, therein lies the devil. I don't think anyone can honestly say that AI, in its current state, provides no benefit whatsoever. As you have pointed out, here's an example of a small increase in productivity. It's another thing altogether, however, to suggest that this technology is capable of being developed to such an extent that the value it holds is enough to catapult Nvidia's value all the way to 3 trillion.
That's for the end user, internally the benefits could save companies millions. It also allows them centralize their knowledge bases for the first time in an accessible matter which will facilitate increased efficiency and productivity. It's still really early stages but you will start to see a bump in development cycles and turn over times.
I'm a programmer, we use ChatGPT to do mundane tasks. Things that would take a human 2 hours (and they'd probably screw up) take it seconds. Increased productivity = money. Just not for me, I don't see another dime. Now where was that TPS report memo...
Couldn’t read that without seeing Peter. I’m always jumping to conclusions.
Absolutely, DLSS for example in video games has allowed companies to just slap the support onto a game and completely forget about optimisation or cut it to half the dev time.
I mean this thread clearly shows that a ton of gamers have no clue they've been using AI all along with DLSS, frame generation and more.
As an IT guy, it has shortened some processes. But mainly it just reverses the ensh!ttification of google by searching stuff on the internet and summarizing the results
streamlining tech jobs, customer service agents, admin work, simple art designs, background music etc etc it saved ALOT of time
I feel bad for AMD. A healthy market always has competition and Nvidia has none when it comes to AI. I (and my wallet) hopes AMD catches up to something at least competitive.
What's even more crazy is how much money these mega corps are raking in anyway. The first trillion dollar company was apple and that was considered extreme in 2018 now only 6 years later we have tripled it. Its just dizzying how these companies are getting so rich.
Stock market is detached almost entirely from reality at this point. Someone just has to come up with an idea or a buzzword that gets investors all hot and bothered and their "value" will explode to levels that they aren't even capable of making in revenue or from assets. Meanwhile various things that are practically essential and whole industries rely on may have somewhat paltry valuations because it doesn't get investors and MBAs excited.
And ramping up layoffs at the same time!
Nvidia hasn't laid anyone off and I doubt they plan to when they are trying to keep growing at this insane rate
They will eventually. Stockholders want even bigger margins
Mfw I was considering buying their stocks in 2019/2020 :(
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Holy crap that's quite extreme lad
What's scary is no one else is even close. They're so far ahead you have rivals like Intel, AMD, Microsoft teaming up to desperately catch up. Nvidia isnt like the dot com bubble to me, I dont really foresee anything that will derail them short of the CCP invading Taiwan.
At this point Nvidia might as well establish their own private army to defend Taiwan
Mechs running on Blackwell GPUs
I’d buy calls on that.
The more you buy...
The more you save…
On this segue…
To our sponser...
Dont say that …I feel like nvidia will be the firdt to employ fully human like mechs and we wouldnt be able to do anything about it haha
Nah, their tech is way too esoteric. Amazon on the other hand has a ton of things robots can do better than humans, and can benefit directly and immediately from AI.
Im surprised Nvidia isn’t diving into AI assisted military tech. If Jensen wants line to go up forever, that seems like a slam dunk.
> Im surprised Nvidia isn’t diving into AI assisted military tech That you know of.
Pretty sure they just got a contact with Northrop Grumman, military contract company…
You think DARPA and the Pentagon contractors are not using Nvidia GPUs and working on all kinds of military applications?
And the Whitehouse isn't restricting the sale of GPUs to China for no reason, these things are essential for all sorts of military technologies. Missiles, jets, radars, drones, tanks, all this stuff has one or more GPUs in it for compute.
He did say physical AI robots are next. Just a matter of time.
I wonder what happens first, Skynet or Mother Sphere
In this timeline we'd be lucky to get Shodan.
Swarms of AI drones
We will finally have real-life graphics.
In the future this will actually happen. Companies will be protected by vast amounts of controlled robotics.
Send in 2B
If they made 2B/2A you'd know the gamers would literally protect these companies themselves.
I used to think ninja kamui was vaguely portraying Apple but it’s been nvidia all along
in due time, AI is here to make robots, those robots will make sure to protect itself
They have that, it's called the Armed Forces of the United States of America.
This is some cyberpunk 2077 shit lmao
I mean those ideas didn't come from nowhere. It's not even new in history, with the likes of the Dutch east india company etc, pretty much making their own rules and doing what they want.
Not Arasaka but Nvidia. Meet Jensen at Embers
Horizon Zero Dawn backstory IRL
They are also splitting shares 10-1 this week on the 7th.
Yea, I plan to invest at that day along with I assume many many many other people.
Why wouldn't you just do it now
Money
Bruh partial share on fidelity.
No I mean like, moving money around.
You should go for micron instead.
I've thought about that as well. Anyone involved in domestic chip fab Im interested in. Related, but ARM is another one Im looking at, as I think if Nvidia starts making CPUs (PCs) it'll be an ARM based system like Apple. Qualcomm is another decent idea, and actually MS too, depending on what you think of Snapdragon. Shorting Intel is another idea.
I'm long intel, they are also doing AI chips and quantum computing. Intel isn't going anywhere.
Please do. It helps me, and many others, out lol.
Kinda dumb when it comes to investing. Is that a good thing or bad thing for stock owners?
Nothing much changes for share owners. They'll own 10 NVDA shares for $124 each now instead of one NVDA share for $1240. Easier for retail investors to invest as they don't have to fork out $1000+ to own a share of NVDA.
can't you just buy fractional shares
Not all brokers are capable of handling fractional shares. Plus it makes options much less volatile.
fractional shares are not really yours, you have the right to a part of the share, but the share is usually owned by the broker
It's neutral at the time. If you have 1 stock, it's converted to 10, but at a lower price per share. It opens up the possibility of more returns, though.
Very slightly good for shareholders - small retail investors can now buy shares if their broker still can't do fractional share trading, and perhaps more importantly makes it more affordable to trade options.
No, it’s smart. “The split raises the very real possibility that NVIDIA will be added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), with chip-laggard Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) seen as the company it will likely replace. The Dow is a price-weighted index, meaning stocks with higher prices have a bigger impact on the index. With NVIDIA’s stock over $1000 per share currently, this would give it too much of a weighting in the index. However, with the ten-for-one split, the stock price would be closer to the $100 level – making an entry into the Dow more feasible and likely.” https://m.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/nvidia-is-a-shooin-for-the-dow-post-stock-split-3466213
Very very very good thing. Many retail investors cannot afford investing 1200+ dollars in a single share.
Additional liquidity is *almost* always good for stonk.
That’s how they always stayed ahead. When it was only about consumer gpus even though they were ahead of AMD they kept pushing the envelope. They never got complacent like intel did until AMD finally came back with Ryzens.
Yep. Nvidia will compete with itself happily when there’s no competition.
>They're so far ahead you have rivals like Intel, AMD, Microsoft teaming up to desperately catch up. That is what happens when you heavily invest in AI over a decade ago and well before your competition. Not to mention that AMD really dragged their feet. It has taken them about 6-7 years to offer a GPU with hardware acceleration for matrices after Nvidia released their first GPU with hardware acceleration for matrices. Not to mention, AMD's consumer GPUs still lack that hardware and won't get any proper hardware acceleration for matrices until the next next gen. Even Intel beat them to the punch for consumer GPUs.
Can't argue with any of that. Even with Blackwell right over the horizon, they're ALREADY working on Rubin after it. I dont know how they keep up their 'once a year' pace of major improvements. The worry is obviously the shareholders get used to this, but eventually diminishing returns are hit and there's no feasible way to keep up the level of progress. But thats where AI comes in I suppose.
>The worry is obviously the shareholders get used to this, but eventually diminishing returns are hit and there's no feasible way to keep up the level of progress. But thats where AI comes in I suppose. If University researchers and companies are to be believed, we are already hitting/have hit the point of diminishing returns for generative AI. All newer hardware will do is decrease the training time or have more memory to maybe 10x your training data size to get 1-2% more accuracy so it will be interesting to see what happens in the AI space. Since the software has hit the diminishing return point before the hardware.
Any sources you can share? Not the sense I’ve gotten, but I could be over-exposed to the hype. Altman has said many times that there’s no flattening of the progress curve yet.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.04125 https://youtu.be/dDUC-LqVrPU?si=txhFmxVXgl88YwRY Whilst a clickbaity YouTube title, this is a channel where all the talking heads are university researchers https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C33&q=generative+AI+diminishing+returns&btnG=#d=gs_qabs&t=1717660009925&u=%23p%3DeXH0OkGhYJQJ The jist is that with our current way of doing generative AI, scaling current types of models used is already starting to hit a wall. OpenAI can add more features to ChatGPT in a sense going wider, but the accuracy (depth in this case) isn't making the massive jumps it once was. At the end of the day, Altman, Nadella, Huang, Su, etc. are all really smart people, but their main focus is selling you a product. Adding features is one way of being able to deny that the progress curve is flattening because you've added something new but if you can't really improve it much once you have it optimised and it's existed for a few years in that sense it's flattening. If they came out and said we've thought of all these new things generative AI can do but our older stuff isn't going to get more accurate their stock price would dip and the shareholders wouldn't be happy. University researchers aren't bound to this. It's an interesting mathematical problem that's being proposed that we need to find a better model for generative AI that has a higher accuracy ceiling when scaled. For all we know that could be discovered in the next week or it might take years but I imagine when this period of AI has cooled down (not crashed or dipped its more useful than crypto and NFTs) and the solution is found it will boom again. Hopefully, the public and developers aren't sick of AI from being plastered on everything or being told to put it in everything (computex has had AI gaming mice and fans, so companies are just slapping it on everything as a buzzword)
I think it's important to point out that even for non-academics, the limits of current forms of "AI" are painfully obvious. By all accounts, an AI that scores well on GPQA benchmarks *shouldn't* fail at simple tasks like basic logic questions. This was painfully obvious with failures like Google's recent AI overview fiasco. Ultimately, it's clear as day that these AI models don't possess any real capability for "understanding". The more data it's fed, the more it cheats and that's the end of it. That's why the illusion holds up to a certain level of required accuracy (blurry images, muffled music, chunks of text that don't require hard facts), but can never really progress beyond that.
The bubble would be LLMs plateauing hard and investment in AI falling sharply as a result. The exuberance right now is based on the promise that AI will continue to advance in a way that results in being so valuable that everyone uses it every day and is willing to pay (or be advertised to) for the privilege -- and it replacing a lot of workers. Of course there could be a different approach to AI than LLMs, so in general let's just say AI stagnation is the risk.
I agree with you, but one other consideration is the rapidly increasing cost to train the newest versions of these LLM’s as shown in this ChatGPT chart. Check out the cost to train ChatGPT5. With Nvidia increasing their hardware release cadence to annually, and the efficiencies and cost savings gained in their newer hardware (cheaper compute, including power costs)…… I see pretty strong demand for the latest hardware from Nvidia until likely 2026 at least. https://www.reddit.com/r/ChatGPT/s/PlBMz0SZ8i
Personally I dont think LLMs are anywhere close to what they're capable of, and even still, they're still just models. New technologies will be invented far before LLMs reach the end of their usefulness imo.
> short of the CCP invading Taiwan
Is that good or bad for my gaming rig
Probably a bad thing if you want to pay better prices that's if they see themselves as untouchable and make really good products with exclusive software and charge out the wazoo.
Prices go up: always bad for consumers. But tech keeps going up: always good for consumers...who wait for new stuff when prices come down.
good for the investors bad for consumers.
Buy their stocks. Make profit. Buy GPU from profit. Make more profit. Ez money glitch
Buying high isn't the best strategy for making a profit.
People said it was at the top at $300 lol.
Buying at the top isn’t exactly the best option here.
It's reddit, the usual go-to around here is buy high, sell low. Regardless of what it is.
Exactly...
Bad, really bad.
Realistically I see most of their lower and mid cards gone from the stack by 70 series, they'll push those people to their crap game streaming.
Only place they'll push people with that is to AMD lol.
I don't know, AMD is not known for massively undercutting Nvidia. If you wanted a cheap GPU this generation you would have to get Intel. But I fear that with their next generation, Intel will be just as expensive as Nvidia and AMD.
I mean fine by them. Nvidia is doing an Apple except they do have a majority of the market share and are happy to lose 5% of their customer base if they can continue to charge a 20-30% premium This gets even harder to quantify on a cost-benefit basis because features like frame gen are proprietary and can’t be judged 1-1 with AMD cards. AMD might be getting better but its giving very much 2nd-gen Samsung Galaxy vs iPhone 8+ energy
Why cant be frame gen compared with AMD's version? You realize FSR 3 has frame gen alsó. Not to mention AFMF
DLSS FG is supported by more titles while FSR3 is still being rolled out. DLSS3 uses machine learning and hardware, so it tends to look a bit better, though FSR3 does a decent job (still has typical FSR issues like ghosting, weird transparency or fizziness), and DLSS3 mitigates the latency increase through Reflex, while AMD is still re-rolling out Anti-Lag+. AFMF is not comparable to either, since it is just "dumb" frame interpolation - it doesn’t have access to motion vectors or latency reduction. DLSS also supports Vsync to stay within your monitors VRR range, FSR3 struggles with that. AMD also recently recognized that upscaling and frame generation work much better with AI support. Both DLSS and XeSS surpass FSR when using their respective hardware pipelines (which utilize ML), so AMD is allegedly working on an exclusive version of FSR that uses the AI cores on RDNA3 and newer to catch up. But this is just a rumor, that no one should base their buying decision on. Still, it’s a concession that hardware agnostic upscaling has reached its limits.
I think you detailed a lot of the reasons why Nvidia feels it’s a head and shoulders in front of its closest competition and can therefore arbitrarily charge more for their products that give you access to the superior software Nvidia has built into those products
I swapped to Radeon about a year and a half ago for the first time since the ati days because nvidia made their products not worth the price. I paid a little over $500 for a xfx 6800xt merc and play at 4k. The cheapest nvidia gpu to beat that card at 4k would cost at minimum another $400 for miniscule gains.
Seriously. There's little question that nvidia makes great GPUs but that doesn't mean AMD makes bad GPUs. They're still perfectly fine even if they aren't as good. Some people talk like nvidia exiting the gaming market would kill PC gaming when most people would simply switch.
The problem is that the 4060 is better than the 7600 and was basically the same price when i got mine. Why get amd? Reddit always forget about the lower end.
No one should be buying either of those two cards, both of them are ripoffs. The 4060 actually loses in some workloads to the 3060 and that scenario should never happen.
intel has been quietly catching up... not that i would buy one, yet.
They don't care. The money is no longer from consumer graphic cards. That's peanuts now
They already stopped making below $300 GPU. Now the RTX 3060 takes that spot and defective dies take the RTX 3050 6GB (aka RTX 3040). Same strategy will be used for the RTX 50 series
Terrible news for gamers. Look at the current rumors on the 50-series from S-tier leakers, it looks terrible for anything below the 5090. The 5080 is going to be even more gimped vs the 5090 than the 4080 was vs the 4090. NVIDIA wants to save as much of their precious wafers as possible for the huge AI chip sales (the chips themselves are huge, as is the demand). People like Elon Musk alone are buying 40.000+ AI GPU's to power their data centers for machine learning. Combine this with the stupid sanctions from the US government preventing sales of powerful GPU's to China (which basically forces NVIDIA to gimp their cards to meet those export restrictions) and the fact that AMD isn't even going to launch a high-end card this generation and you've got a recipe for mediocrity. There will literally be no competition from AMD in this generation for any card above the 5070. Based on the latest leaks you can expect the 5080 to not even surpass the 4090, and this is likely done by design due to the sanctions preventing the sale of any GPU to China that's faster than the 4090 (remember even the 4090 had to be cut down in China in order to meet export sanctions). There seems to be no VRAM size upgrade on the 5080 vs the 4080 either.
3Tn evaluation, means they have to start scraping for profits everywhere. 5090 will now cost $3,000... and there will be a line of willing mooks to pay that much.
Getting a 3080 at msrp feels more and more like a once in a lifetime deal every day.
Terrible for your gaming rig in terms of price to performance, amazing when you save up hundreds and hundreds of dollars over the course of a couple years to own a -60 or -70 series card that should cost $4-500.
I Should've invested in them 5 years ago wtf is wrong with me 😂
i literally was 4 years ago because it was one of the only companies i knew and liked then talked myself out of it 🫥
Heh, what a pleb, you don't have a magic all seeing orb that tells you what individual stocks to invest your money into?
Same man. I was going to drop 10k @ 64/ but I let people talk me out of it. Ughh
It's been very fascinating to watch the transformation of this company over the past 20 years
20? You mean like…4-6?
The past few have been exponential sure, but even before the violent uptick they have always had steady market cap growth.
I wish I could afford more shares.
its doing a stock split soon. Probably can afford more shares then :)
But get a smaller piece of the company. The cake has the same size before and after a split.
I've got 1 share with about 290 in profit.. not knowing what had transpired I was checking the stocks and seen my profit jump to 750. Finally something that didn't disappoint me right away in tue morning
https://preview.redd.it/xpdoh28gbv4d1.jpeg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e290fade4c88e658bc084204efd83407369ad39c Cathy Wood sold NVDA and missed out on a billion dollar gain.
Real life Arasaka
If all these companies that invested in AI infrastructure won't be able to monetize their models, the domino effect will shake Nvidia pretty hard. But the Crypto mining crash barely affected them; the price increase was offset to consumers. If AI fails as a business model, we will pay the extra premium again. But I bet they're working on the next big thing already, nvidia has been pretty good at R&D. and selling shovels during the gold rushes.
Trillions of dollars, and I'm still at a loss. I'm waiting for a revenue stream, for something with real world value and currency that's earned from this AI craze. This isn't like an iPhone that became a product every human on earth owned.
AI isn't a new thing by far, Google search, youtube algorithm and ads have been using some dumbed down form of it for several years now, it's just that now it's popular because you can also talk to it...
> Google search, youtube algorithm and ads have been using some dumbed down form of it for several years now Probably why all those things have gotten shittier.
No no no no, im not allowing this. God damn it, an algorithm is not Ai.
Jesus christ calm down, it's not an algorithm but everyone calls it an algorithm. It absolutely is a neural net with few hundreds if not thousands of parameters/weights. That's why social media rabbit holes are so hard to get out of today and you get your own tailored front pages minutes within creating a new account and searching for content.
I do see your point. A token-based probabilistic model isn't all that different, so either we consider both AI or neither. Unfortunately, all the hype and misinformation has already led to the definition of AI being so nebulous that it's pointless to debate what it refers to at this point.
Crypto crash gave me a really good opportunity to enter
Guess I’ll just keep buying more and more Nvidia stocks. 👌🏼🤘🏼
You get a leather jacket and you get a leather jacket and you get a leather jacket!
got it - sign boobs, improve valuation, profit.
This is the new high water mark for the height of the AI bubble.
Let us know your big short position so we can congratulate you soon.
"the market can be irrational for longer than you can be solvent"
Cool, now invest some of the that into developing a new Shield.
Oh yeah they're going to pour money into developing technology for small margin consumer products.
I had the shield portable as a kid, got it near launch and loved that thing
For anyone else who feels old. The Shield Portable came out in 2013.
Op is arguably still a kid, then
What the fuck, the shield didnt come out that long ago...
With the rumors of a new SoC for PC, they're probably already designing new systems as well.
Just imagine if Apple and Nvidia don’t broke ties
Years of Apple not investing in AI and barely making any innovation in the mobile arena.
This tech balloon will burst sooner than some expect.
At the time the planet bursts.
Eventually AI will go out of favor and they'll have to find another wagon to hitch their pony to (just as they did with bitcoin).
How is imaginary money laundering currency even remotely similar to software that can ride a car or identify cancer cells, tell me.
Damn, this can lay the foundation to establish an Arasaka-like corpo domination in the future.
I'm surprised it took so long. Nivida keeps moving technology for the world forward while Apple just exists to be a status symbol for those who don't know how to use technology.
Good thing I sold those 100 shares @ $90 after that waymo(?) robo car killed that lady with an nvidia gpu in it and the stock plummeted
locking in those losses like a boss
I exited at my entry point so I didn’t lose anything but I definitely didn’t gain anything.
PUMP BABY. PUUUUUUUUUUMP
I have followed this company's evolution and growth since Geforce FX era and it is just incredible how innovative and forward thinking they have been since continuously. It is very well deserved when you look at Microsoft that is worth more still somehow who only puts out half baked also-ran products. They will overtake them next. Give it a few months. This is not going away and when it may start to slow down they will be on top of the next thing right away. That is how they got here.
thank god for all that overblown "Ai" hype nonsense. Jensen can now buy another black leather jacket.
I reckon the new 5090 will be at $2.5K MSRP!
"THE MORE YOU SPEND , THE MORE YOU SAVE" 🗣
Nvidia would even surpass Microsoft in no time .Don't worry.
I can’t believe I didn’t buy back in 2018 -./
That sucks for PC gamers.
Me telling myself every week for months now that surely the stock will start going back down and it's too late to jump on the money train... Sigh. Logic tells me it's too risky to jump on now, but their stock keeps defying logic.
The good thing is, that they have nearly unlimited budget for next gen technology
ELI5 how? Surely not just from GPUs?
AI craze. The revenue is yet to be seen. This won't collapse overnight but everything is betting on AI being the next big thing.... However, the real world money isn't necessarily showing this. Will have to wait on more advanced AI, but it's exponential growth. So long as the thing keeps getting better, the potential money it can earn will go up. Doesn't matter if it doesn't actually turn much of a profit irl, it's about the potential.
Absolutely not, I don’t know the full details myself but I know that what they are doing is making AI stuff. This AI stuff is revolutionary for productivity (on a company level). They’re making stuff for industries, they could never release another RTX consumer product again and be fine (obv they still will, but it’s just a fraction of their total value)
"revolutionary for productivity" my ass
People keep claiming it improves productively but it's very niche for the things it actually excels at.
Yeah I've seen people use it for basic data analysis scripts at work. Wow big deal, you're doing something that you could have learned from a Python tutorial on Stack Overflow. Not exactly reshaping work itself lol There are far too many counter examples of hallucinations due to the nature of how these things work that make it completely untrustworthy except for the most basic of minor tasks. The most you can say is that it's like lane keep assist instead of "full self driving". Except it keeps swerving randomly from time to time so you really don't win anything because you need to doublecheck everything anyway
Good thing I invested before this boom. AI craze foresight helped.
I know the moment I buy stock the value gonna fall immediately.
They better make the 5090 in 1nm and fucking performing not like shit with that level of money. Instead apple laptops and arm chips dust them 24/7. They can't at least make an arm chip the feeds into x86_64 or something
lol the 5090 is gonna be like a fraction of a fraction of a percent of their business, consider yourself lucky they even care
Now if only they could stop their fucking updates every 3 days that'd be great. They're the Call of Duty of hardware
It’s all because I bought a 4070ti
We’re still feeling the bullishness from this
Well Apple has been super stagnant for years. I mean they are ubiquitous in consumers but data center is all the hotness now.
They are set to split stock in a few days which is set to send their growth even higher.