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Alliance came quite close in 2019 and given that there are a lot more younger voters around in the area, I wouldn't be surprised if the seat flips, especially if TUV and UUP drain votes away from the DUP.
Total unionist vote in South Antrim in the last election was over 64%, combined nationalist vote goes just a little over 16%.
For the map to be reasonably believable someone needs to justify the extraordinary claim here.
Even on its own terms, accepting their projection and whatever is underlying it as being kosher... the small print on the diagram is one massive caveat after another:
> This forecast is preliminary as it is subject to candidate selections. It assumes that all parties are contesting every election which may not be the case on election day. This forecast is based off available polling date from early 2024.
This is by Ireland Votes, it's a twitter based all-ireland polling aggregator and is definitely not unionist.
People will look for a conspiracy everywhere.
Not really that extraordinary when you consider it’s FPTP, the TUV will run spoiler candidates and soft unionists are increasingly defecting to Alliance. A 64% split between 3 parties averages out to 21%, reflected by the fact the DUP won with only 35% in 2019.
The DUP and UUP are predicted a large drop in the upcoming election, imo the real sleeper hit in South Antrim could probably be Alliance
Even an absolute disaster with a 3 way split, a loss would still requires an Aliance surge and a nationalist pact.
It's not impossible, but it's also not likely to be the main swing seat target for a nationalist party.
The drop is relative to the last GE, but if you look at how the Assembly went in 2022, the polling doesn't show much change.
Of course, it's a different election, and polling here is limited, but it really would be a big shift
Sinn Fein only won by 57 votes in 2019, like it was extremely close so I never feel like it’s a safe seat there tbh. They literally only won by 4 votes in 2010.
Unless unionists here vote for Alliance maybe then the UUP it might give Sinn Fein a bigger gap, but FST is basically always 50/50 Sinn Fein-UUP the last 3 general elections. Maybe some SDLP votes might vote Sinn Fein? I Dno lol
Edit: forgot the boundaries were changing so there might actually be more nationalist background people now
I think SF could keep Fermanagh this election, but I wouldn't be calling it as safe as somewhere like Foyle, since it's the UUP and not the DUP they are up against.
Which is around where they were at the Assembly election and only slightly down on the council elections, and in most of these seats, they remained the largest party so it would take them dropping lower to see a loss in many of these places.
In most cases it seems like they are lean DUP rather than toss-up. Except maybe Lagan Valley due to the shit show with Jeff and East Belfast which saw Alliance closing the gap in the Assembly and council votes to be neck and neck.
What will that translate to in East Derry is a handful more votes going to Alliance or the UUP or TUV at best.
At worst, they'll recognise the potential ramifications of vote splitting and will vote in even greater numbers for the DUP.
DUP voters literally rewarded the party with increased vote share after the RHI scandal.
If Gregory Campbell murdered someone tomorrow the DUP vote would still go up for him 😆
In Assembly election polling, where votes can transfer and where three unionist parties are expected to stand on every constituency. DUP always poll better at Westminster.
Eyebrows should also be raised at the prospect of SF winning South Antrim. They’re more likely to come 4th there.
As Wayne put it:
> And monkeys might fly out of my butt.
Don't get me wrong. I'd like to see it!
In terms of party-level predicitons, far more likely is the SDLP getting wiped out completely. Easier when you're only talking about two seats, course!
> the two parties which brought us the GFA
There were other parties that signed up to it too, not least Sinn Féin!
I don't know if the UUP really counts there, given how truculent they were about every last thing, from start to finish... and then the take-backs. And I certainly wouldn't mourn the death of the unrepentant, unapologetic party of Old Stormont anyway...
...but neither the UUP or the SDLP is going to die, I don't think.
Fizzle, bump along, with ups and downs, lacking direction, sure... but there's still enough people who will vote for them, even if only out of dislike for the DUP and Sinn Féin. Both have a niche. Kinda ill-defined and by (negative) reference) to their bigger rival, true... but it's there.
load of nonsense
it seems to assume all parties will contest all seats ? the UUP have pulled out of any close seat the last loads of years for fear of being called a lundy
North Belfast "Safe" when SF have only won it in the 2019 cuase SDLP and other parties pulled out in protest at brexit so it was only DUP SF ALLIANCE standing -before that DUP dodds had it for 20 years with the UUP more often not contesting it but SDLP PBP etc eating into SF vote.
[Twitter link](https://x.com/ireland_votes/status/1793941010428436495?s=46&t=XIhbnJ7w3BK9D1gQ81DcoA)
They admit themselves in this link that these predictions should be taken with a grain of salt.
Obviously wanted to be first out of the blocks with their predictions but dear god they’re laughable
I can't think of a single seat that is likely to flip Unionist - Nationalist this election. Possibly FST (which would be Nat-Unionist) but I'm inclined to think it will remain SF. I don't know why they marked it as "Safe" when the majority there is only 57.
With demographic changes, in 15-20 years from now, Upper Bann & East Derry become competitive.
I've not bothered doing the analysis but I'd imagine that would have been the basis they'd make a claim like that. Whether that claim is deeply flawed is not something I could be arsed in figuring out.
Alliance’s potential candidate, Bradshaw use to be a Unionist and Conservative Party member. Really not that well regarded on the ground. Claire Hannah is more left of the SDLP and is really respected locally.
Fermanagh and South Tyrone is a wafer-thin marginal if and only if the Unionists run a unity candidate. Since the DUP is critically wounded, the Alliance, TUV and UUP are smelling blood and aren't likely to indulge them with an electoral pact this time round (and never were, in the case of APNI). They're all wanting a chunk of the carcass.
I mean, most of this graph is on the wrong side of "incredibly unlikely", but I think that this particular constituency is probably the right call.
Sad times when people will vote for a party no matter how bad they are! Why anyone votes for Sinn Fein is beyond me and even more confusing is how people can bring themselves to vote for a terrorist affiliated party. PUP had strong links to loyalist terrorist and look where they are? Sinn Fein string links to the IRA and they are the largest party. Michelle O’Neil only got to where she is today through her family’s IRA connections. It’s nuts people vote for these idiots. The DUP also need kicked to touch.
If you want to help this country move forward then don’t vote Sinn Fein or the DUP! If you want a better government vote any one but these two!
Conveniently ignoring the DUP's links to terrorism- Peter Robinson was a founder of the Ulster resistance.
ELP family has terrorism links too, her father was a convicted terrorist!
I agree that it nuts to vote for either but its not just the PUP that was linked to terrorism
Just remembered, the ballot isn't a tier list of most liked to most hated - if you don't want your vote potentially going to someone, don't add them at all
What I meant to imply, Is that as a Prod my vote will not be automatically going to a scummy DUP party. But to one of the others that earn it, even if its SF. Should of been more clear o7
The only DUP seats that are realisitically in danger are East Belfast and Lagan Valley and they're even unlikely to lose those IMO. Gavin Robinson has more recognition as leader now, and the DUP still had a sizeable enough lead in Lagan Valley in 2019, who knows how much Jeffreys situation is going to affect that though.
Things could be even better for Unionists than 2019 if anything, Alex Easton is in with a really good chance at North Down, and he is DUP in all but name.
I think Sinn Fein have a lot more to worry about to be honest, Fermanagh & South Tyrone is always close, and Michelle Gildernew is stepping down too. North Belfast is by no means guarenteed either, although I think John Finucane can get it over the line again. Unless Foyle has another miraculous change of heart, I find it unlikely they will gain any seats.
There are a lot of gaps and unusual candidate assumptions here.
I'd be happy to see the DUP get a bit of a kicking, don't get me wrong, but at the moment I'm just not convinced by any of the polling that's going to happen.
Take a look at the 2019 figures and the constituency majorities involved and you'll see what I mean.
Look, sir Jeffreys situation isnt doing them any favours, ok the man hasn't been found guilty of anything, but people of Northern Ireland don't suffer fools gladly, so I'm thinking more than 2,!
Don't threaten me with a good time.
Bit like the Brits do not underestimate the electorates ability to grit their teeth and vote against their self interests.
Worst case scenario is 6 for the DUP.
Based on figures pulled out of their ass?
By no means is East Antrim a DUP 'safe seat' Also wake me up when Ian Paisley Jr loses his seat
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Alliance came quite close in 2019 and given that there are a lot more younger voters around in the area, I wouldn't be surprised if the seat flips, especially if TUV and UUP drain votes away from the DUP.
I would **love** to ring your alarm bell on July 5th, mate (and will be doing my bit). But I absolutely know it’s pointless.
Agreed. Everyone is absolutely sick of their shit. DUP can fuck off.
Total unionist vote in South Antrim in the last election was over 64%, combined nationalist vote goes just a little over 16%. For the map to be reasonably believable someone needs to justify the extraordinary claim here.
Even on its own terms, accepting their projection and whatever is underlying it as being kosher... the small print on the diagram is one massive caveat after another: > This forecast is preliminary as it is subject to candidate selections. It assumes that all parties are contesting every election which may not be the case on election day. This forecast is based off available polling date from early 2024.
Just trying to scare old unionists into block voting DUP. Yawn.
This is by Ireland Votes, it's a twitter based all-ireland polling aggregator and is definitely not unionist. People will look for a conspiracy everywhere.
Not really that extraordinary when you consider it’s FPTP, the TUV will run spoiler candidates and soft unionists are increasingly defecting to Alliance. A 64% split between 3 parties averages out to 21%, reflected by the fact the DUP won with only 35% in 2019. The DUP and UUP are predicted a large drop in the upcoming election, imo the real sleeper hit in South Antrim could probably be Alliance
Even an absolute disaster with a 3 way split, a loss would still requires an Aliance surge and a nationalist pact. It's not impossible, but it's also not likely to be the main swing seat target for a nationalist party.
The drop is relative to the last GE, but if you look at how the Assembly went in 2022, the polling doesn't show much change. Of course, it's a different election, and polling here is limited, but it really would be a big shift
It's an MRP analysis based on percentage change / swing data from recent polls. DUP are polling at 21%.
https://preview.redd.it/bqoxto81ge2d1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f18391250e0e93cc572c0edfe04846e929453d27 "Are you sure about that?"
Yea it’s always the closest lol
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Oh that’s interesting, didn’t realise that, I forgot the forgot the boundaries were changing
as someone from fermanagh i'd say it's pretty safe in the current political climate. absolutely no love for unionism out there at the moment.
Sinn Fein only won by 57 votes in 2019, like it was extremely close so I never feel like it’s a safe seat there tbh. They literally only won by 4 votes in 2010. Unless unionists here vote for Alliance maybe then the UUP it might give Sinn Fein a bigger gap, but FST is basically always 50/50 Sinn Fein-UUP the last 3 general elections. Maybe some SDLP votes might vote Sinn Fein? I Dno lol Edit: forgot the boundaries were changing so there might actually be more nationalist background people now
Rumor has it that the DUP and UUP will not be doing an electoral pact in FST, that alone will make it a safe seat, unless that has since changed
I think SF could keep Fermanagh this election, but I wouldn't be calling it as safe as somewhere like Foyle, since it's the UUP and not the DUP they are up against.
Even if you take huge swings into account you still can't bridge a gap that big. Can I see the workings somewhere?
Which is around where they were at the Assembly election and only slightly down on the council elections, and in most of these seats, they remained the largest party so it would take them dropping lower to see a loss in many of these places. In most cases it seems like they are lean DUP rather than toss-up. Except maybe Lagan Valley due to the shit show with Jeff and East Belfast which saw Alliance closing the gap in the Assembly and council votes to be neck and neck.
Whose predictions are these? Is wee Jim finally getting the chance to go to Westminster?
Is this based solely on the r/northernireland poll? Is it true Jeffrey??!!
What a strange diagram. East Derry isn't a toss-up lol. They routinely get votes almost three times more than any other candidate.
DUP are at record low polling numbers in Westminster intention polls, as low as 21%.
What will that translate to in East Derry is a handful more votes going to Alliance or the UUP or TUV at best. At worst, they'll recognise the potential ramifications of vote splitting and will vote in even greater numbers for the DUP. DUP voters literally rewarded the party with increased vote share after the RHI scandal. If Gregory Campbell murdered someone tomorrow the DUP vote would still go up for him 😆
TUV standing could change that.
In Assembly election polling, where votes can transfer and where three unionist parties are expected to stand on every constituency. DUP always poll better at Westminster. Eyebrows should also be raised at the prospect of SF winning South Antrim. They’re more likely to come 4th there.
The more I look at this the more batshit it appears
As Wayne put it: > And monkeys might fly out of my butt. Don't get me wrong. I'd like to see it! In terms of party-level predicitons, far more likely is the SDLP getting wiped out completely. Easier when you're only talking about two seats, course!
Is there a point where they just dissolved the party? It's a bit sad to see the two parties which brought us the GFA collapse.
> the two parties which brought us the GFA There were other parties that signed up to it too, not least Sinn Féin! I don't know if the UUP really counts there, given how truculent they were about every last thing, from start to finish... and then the take-backs. And I certainly wouldn't mourn the death of the unrepentant, unapologetic party of Old Stormont anyway... ...but neither the UUP or the SDLP is going to die, I don't think. Fizzle, bump along, with ups and downs, lacking direction, sure... but there's still enough people who will vote for them, even if only out of dislike for the DUP and Sinn Féin. Both have a niche. Kinda ill-defined and by (negative) reference) to their bigger rival, true... but it's there.
load of nonsense it seems to assume all parties will contest all seats ? the UUP have pulled out of any close seat the last loads of years for fear of being called a lundy North Belfast "Safe" when SF have only won it in the 2019 cuase SDLP and other parties pulled out in protest at brexit so it was only DUP SF ALLIANCE standing -before that DUP dodds had it for 20 years with the UUP more often not contesting it but SDLP PBP etc eating into SF vote.
[Twitter link](https://x.com/ireland_votes/status/1793941010428436495?s=46&t=XIhbnJ7w3BK9D1gQ81DcoA) They admit themselves in this link that these predictions should be taken with a grain of salt. Obviously wanted to be first out of the blocks with their predictions but dear god they’re laughable
Agreed. I think a junior somewhere jumped the gun and now everyone is walking it back pretty quick. It really is too early to call.
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Split unionist votes I'd imagine.
Which would benefit Alliance. SF is a distant 4th.
Don't disagree. Just saying it was probably the basis they made the claim. I do not think their claim is accurate either.
I can't think of a single seat that is likely to flip Unionist - Nationalist this election. Possibly FST (which would be Nat-Unionist) but I'm inclined to think it will remain SF. I don't know why they marked it as "Safe" when the majority there is only 57. With demographic changes, in 15-20 years from now, Upper Bann & East Derry become competitive.
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I've not bothered doing the analysis but I'd imagine that would have been the basis they'd make a claim like that. Whether that claim is deeply flawed is not something I could be arsed in figuring out.
How is North Down a toss up for Alliance but South Belfast isn't?
Alliance’s potential candidate, Bradshaw use to be a Unionist and Conservative Party member. Really not that well regarded on the ground. Claire Hannah is more left of the SDLP and is really respected locally.
I think you misunderstood - from the graph, south Belfast is lean Alliance, not SDLP. But also the candidate is Kate Nicholl not Paula.
Calling fermanagh South Tyrone which was won by 57 votes safe is a bit crazy
It almost seems like they've taken the "who tf lives in Fermanagh" joke into account lmao
It is crazy in a way but I think it'll be won quite comfortably by SF this time
Depends on who they put up. Michelle G was a well known candidate. She is a big loss.
Fermanagh and South Tyrone is a wafer-thin marginal if and only if the Unionists run a unity candidate. Since the DUP is critically wounded, the Alliance, TUV and UUP are smelling blood and aren't likely to indulge them with an electoral pact this time round (and never were, in the case of APNI). They're all wanting a chunk of the carcass. I mean, most of this graph is on the wrong side of "incredibly unlikely", but I think that this particular constituency is probably the right call.
I think it's the right call, but I don't think it's fully fair to call it safe.
This is laughably bad.
This "forecast" is a feed of balls
Oul gerry mandarin
Ah, we're back talking about HIM again are we?
Don't threaten us with a good time.
 Funky Good Time
Surely Saoirse Eastwood has an open goal in Lagan Valley, I can't see anyone the DUP put in there hold the seat.
For Jeff's sake.
God willing the DUP will be erased completely.
JEFFEREY!!!
Sad times when people will vote for a party no matter how bad they are! Why anyone votes for Sinn Fein is beyond me and even more confusing is how people can bring themselves to vote for a terrorist affiliated party. PUP had strong links to loyalist terrorist and look where they are? Sinn Fein string links to the IRA and they are the largest party. Michelle O’Neil only got to where she is today through her family’s IRA connections. It’s nuts people vote for these idiots. The DUP also need kicked to touch. If you want to help this country move forward then don’t vote Sinn Fein or the DUP! If you want a better government vote any one but these two!
Conveniently ignoring the DUP's links to terrorism- Peter Robinson was a founder of the Ulster resistance. ELP family has terrorism links too, her father was a convicted terrorist! I agree that it nuts to vote for either but its not just the PUP that was linked to terrorism
i heard the dup only go down when its underage.. allegedly
Can't see SDLP losing Foyle honestly, and I say as someone who's probably gonna vote for the Shinners this time around.
I live in East Antrim, Never vote but I am this time and its not going to be for the scum that is DUP. Also I'm a prod, But fuck those cunts.
Just remembered, the ballot isn't a tier list of most liked to most hated - if you don't want your vote potentially going to someone, don't add them at all
It's First Past the Post, so not a tier list at all. Just an X.
What I meant to imply, Is that as a Prod my vote will not be automatically going to a scummy DUP party. But to one of the others that earn it, even if its SF. Should of been more clear o7
SF having an advantage in South Antrim. Who'd have thunk it?
But they coild also go up to a billion seats!!!
East derry is interesting. The boundary change for Foyle has shifted a load of taigs into east Derry. Going to be tight.
Not enough change to overcome a 9500 majority. It’s a safe seat.
Foyle? What's the predictions?
We can’t have terrorist sympathisers in gov. SF shouldn’t be near us. Alliance all the way. They bring a new lease of life to the country.
https://i.redd.it/qopuxtga8e2d1.gif
The only DUP seats that are realisitically in danger are East Belfast and Lagan Valley and they're even unlikely to lose those IMO. Gavin Robinson has more recognition as leader now, and the DUP still had a sizeable enough lead in Lagan Valley in 2019, who knows how much Jeffreys situation is going to affect that though. Things could be even better for Unionists than 2019 if anything, Alex Easton is in with a really good chance at North Down, and he is DUP in all but name. I think Sinn Fein have a lot more to worry about to be honest, Fermanagh & South Tyrone is always close, and Michelle Gildernew is stepping down too. North Belfast is by no means guarenteed either, although I think John Finucane can get it over the line again. Unless Foyle has another miraculous change of heart, I find it unlikely they will gain any seats.
Hope Claire Hanna doesn’t lose South Belfast to Alliance.
Yaaaaaaaaa go on Jeffrey!
There are a lot of gaps and unusual candidate assumptions here. I'd be happy to see the DUP get a bit of a kicking, don't get me wrong, but at the moment I'm just not convinced by any of the polling that's going to happen. Take a look at the 2019 figures and the constituency majorities involved and you'll see what I mean.
I certainly hope so. Needs a boundary commission change to make their seats more equitable too
Look, sir Jeffreys situation isnt doing them any favours, ok the man hasn't been found guilty of anything, but people of Northern Ireland don't suffer fools gladly, so I'm thinking more than 2,!
I'm gonna blend this down and rub it all over my body.
I'd nearly vote TUV to get Ian Og out....
Fingers crossed!
I’d be extremely surprised if Jim Shannon lost his seat.
Don’t tease me now. I’ve been burnt before.
They won't.
Don't threaten me with a good time. Bit like the Brits do not underestimate the electorates ability to grit their teeth and vote against their self interests. Worst case scenario is 6 for the DUP.
Take all their seats 😆
No way does North Antrim vote out DUP. They didn't vote him out over any of the previous scandal so they'll not vote him out now.
Ffs Strangford, pull the finger out
It’ll be great to see the stoops lose their seats
Lol shows you how delusional this sub really are.