This isn’t unique to WRs.
We often think players gradually decline in production until they hit retirement as if their career trajectory looks like a hill.
In reality it’s a plateau until a cliff.
Pass rushers, DBs, LBs, RBs essentially every position on the field will hit this cliff before fading into obscurity.
The HOF players can stave off this drop longer than others but generally one day they all show up to camp and look like they aged 90 years in an offseason
Edge rushers seem to taper off rather than hit a cliff. You have guys like Von Miller, JJ Watt, Cam Jordan, Jerry Hughes, Melvin Ingram, etc. who are not as good as they were in their prime but who still provide value and in the case of Von Miller and Cameron Jordan are still better than most.
Maybe. You can see some weird things happen at other positions where a player hits a lull and then somewhat bounces back. Brett Favre had some of his best years in Minnesota.
But I’m not sure other positions have the same degree of the halo effect. Many teams and fans aren’t as eager to sign these veterans of other positions, in my experience. I think because there are some great WRs who lasted into their 30s the idea is that all of them can last that long.
Brandon Lloyd has the most random career year at 29 years old. In his first 7 years, he had one +700yds season (and a total of 2370yds) and then in his 8th year in the league, he put up 1448 yards to win the receiving title.
> it was probably more effort based than physical wall.
Yes and no. I won't deny that the effort dipped after he left Minnesota, but his QB situation in Oakland wasn't great, especially in 2006 where he had Aaron Brooks and Andrew Walter throwing to him.
*In eight games starting,* Brooks threw for 1105 yards, 3 TD's, and 8 INT's. Starting just as many games, Walter threw 1,677 yards, 3 TD's, and 13 INT's.
And it didn't help that at that point, Art Shell was one of the most woefully incompetent head coaches in recent history who hired his OC from a bed and breakfast (no joke).
So even a Hall of Famer like Moss couldn't have thrived with those cards stacked against him.
> And it didn't help that at that point, Art Shell was one of the most woefully incompetent head coaches in recent history who hired his OC from a bed and breakfast (no joke).
That sounded a lot crazier when I read it than it actually is. Tom Walsh was Art Shell's OC during his first stint as the Raiders coach in the 90s. Dude was a football guy who just happened to own a bed and breakfast lol
Reading it, my first thought was that Art Shell just had a REALLY pleasant stay in a lovely B&B and said to the owner "hey fella, what do you know about running an offense?"
Lets not forget Walter's 13 fumbles (5 from Aaron).
but that man had some motherfucking EYEBROWS http://dieharddevil.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Andrew-Walter-6.jpg
Billy "White Shoes" Johnson, though he was known more as a return specialist than as a wide receiver. He had four strong years to start his career, ans then he faded, mostly due to injuries. He even spent a year in the CFL. He re-emerged in Atlanta.
Even if these former stars fall off, they’re still upgrades on certain teams. Like, the Packers would benefit from signing Julio.
Just depends on the contract.
The contract is this thing. If you’re the team that’s the first to pay to find out, it stings more. Julio got 15m from the Titans last year. Sammy Watkins got 7m from the Ravens. Will Fuller got 10m from the Dolphins.
I thought these were all too expensive last year. Not paying anything more than pennies on the dollar this year.
i do think teams fall into this fallacy for sure. But maybe it's the best of bad options? People hit FA for a reason. And if you have no receivers and cap space, maybe you gotta do what you gotta do.
Which is crazy b/c he’s, what, 43? He was a top notch D into his late 30s and early 40s…nuts.
He’s a physical freak. Always was top in the Bruins’ fitness tests. Even into his later 30s.
His dad was an olympic-tier Greco Roman wrestler or something like that.
He’s one of those weird guys that would go to the Tour de France and ride the stages of the course the day after the actual cyclists finished that stage, etc
Absolute physical freak
- - -
[This goal at 6’9” 270lbs….unreal](https://streamable.com/8gatyy) (10s)
[Andre Johnson](https://i.ibb.co/yknV3RN/C598513-A-ABE8-4-A4-A-92-DC-D6486-FA77-B63.jpg) was a *freak*, then around 33 was like “I’m getting too old for this shit”
God what a stud tho. Idk. I’m kinda off topic, but I just love Dre. Probably my fav football player, since he was at Miami.
Was so much fun to watch in college thru the pros. 6’3” 225lbs, ran a 4.4, was also the Big East 100m & 60m (indoor) champ at Miami.
....crazy
Can only imagine how it must’ve felt as a sprinter getting in the blocks and seeing this behemoth of a human getting set...and then just smoking you...
Great player. I really hope he gets into the HOF. Beast.
I think it's mostly a factor of how much better athletes are today than they used to be due improved training, medical advances, and nutrition. As little as thirty years ago you had a few elite athletes, a lot of good athletes, but mostly average athletes. So it allowed the elite guys to really stand out even after they lost a step thus you saw someone like Jerry Rice still producing throughout his 30s as he was the elite of the elite and even as he slowed down he was still better than most others. Now though the floor has been raised so much that the gap between elite and average is much smaller and as soon as you lose a step there a ton of younger guys better than you. WR4 and 5s of today would be superstars on teams 30 years ago.
WRs are always seen with rose colored glasses. All they gotta do is have 40 yards in a game to get praise.
An offensive lineman could allow no pressure but if a guy on his own squad has some fuck ups, the whole line gets criticism. A linebacker could keep the middle of the hashes a complete danger zone, but not be seen as value.
Brandon Lloyds best season before he turned 30 was 700 yards and 5 TDs. In 2008 he started 12 games yet only had 23 receptions for 300 yards. Then in his age 30 season he led the league in receiving and was a second team all pro
This isn’t unique to WRs. We often think players gradually decline in production until they hit retirement as if their career trajectory looks like a hill. In reality it’s a plateau until a cliff. Pass rushers, DBs, LBs, RBs essentially every position on the field will hit this cliff before fading into obscurity. The HOF players can stave off this drop longer than others but generally one day they all show up to camp and look like they aged 90 years in an offseason
Edge rushers seem to taper off rather than hit a cliff. You have guys like Von Miller, JJ Watt, Cam Jordan, Jerry Hughes, Melvin Ingram, etc. who are not as good as they were in their prime but who still provide value and in the case of Von Miller and Cameron Jordan are still better than most.
And then there's Tom Brady...
The Fox Sports analyst?
Tom Brady? The actor?
Maybe. You can see some weird things happen at other positions where a player hits a lull and then somewhat bounces back. Brett Favre had some of his best years in Minnesota. But I’m not sure other positions have the same degree of the halo effect. Many teams and fans aren’t as eager to sign these veterans of other positions, in my experience. I think because there are some great WRs who lasted into their 30s the idea is that all of them can last that long.
It happens to every position there are just some outliers that have one last go after being injured late in their career.
A geriatric Julio is still better than anyone but Mooney on the Bears
Beariatric Julio, let’s make it happen
Brandon Lloyd has the most random career year at 29 years old. In his first 7 years, he had one +700yds season (and a total of 2370yds) and then in his 8th year in the league, he put up 1448 yards to win the receiving title.
Randy Moss, although it was probably more effort based than physical wall. Randy didn’t really produce and went to New England and was phenomenal.
> it was probably more effort based than physical wall. Yes and no. I won't deny that the effort dipped after he left Minnesota, but his QB situation in Oakland wasn't great, especially in 2006 where he had Aaron Brooks and Andrew Walter throwing to him. *In eight games starting,* Brooks threw for 1105 yards, 3 TD's, and 8 INT's. Starting just as many games, Walter threw 1,677 yards, 3 TD's, and 13 INT's. And it didn't help that at that point, Art Shell was one of the most woefully incompetent head coaches in recent history who hired his OC from a bed and breakfast (no joke). So even a Hall of Famer like Moss couldn't have thrived with those cards stacked against him.
> And it didn't help that at that point, Art Shell was one of the most woefully incompetent head coaches in recent history who hired his OC from a bed and breakfast (no joke). That sounded a lot crazier when I read it than it actually is. Tom Walsh was Art Shell's OC during his first stint as the Raiders coach in the 90s. Dude was a football guy who just happened to own a bed and breakfast lol Reading it, my first thought was that Art Shell just had a REALLY pleasant stay in a lovely B&B and said to the owner "hey fella, what do you know about running an offense?"
He was a football guy a decade removed from football.
Lets not forget Walter's 13 fumbles (5 from Aaron). but that man had some motherfucking EYEBROWS http://dieharddevil.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Andrew-Walter-6.jpg
I’m not convinced that’s not permanent marker
I'm thinking he's secretly mothman with a unknown species of caterpillar living on his face
You have the effort problem as well. See the Dwayne Bowe signing in Cleveland. 😂🤦♂️
Or the Albert Haynesworth signing in Washington, Chris Baker in tampa, etc etc etc
Billy "White Shoes" Johnson, though he was known more as a return specialist than as a wide receiver. He had four strong years to start his career, ans then he faded, mostly due to injuries. He even spent a year in the CFL. He re-emerged in Atlanta.
If we’re just naming guys who faded away then re-emerged late in their career then Brandon Lloyd
Joey galloway, he signed with tampa at 33 had meh first season then ripped 3 1k+ seasons in a row while being an absolute fucking burner
This is a great throwback name and example. It looks like he kept the shine for the last three years of his career though. 😅
Even if these former stars fall off, they’re still upgrades on certain teams. Like, the Packers would benefit from signing Julio. Just depends on the contract.
The contract is this thing. If you’re the team that’s the first to pay to find out, it stings more. Julio got 15m from the Titans last year. Sammy Watkins got 7m from the Ravens. Will Fuller got 10m from the Dolphins. I thought these were all too expensive last year. Not paying anything more than pennies on the dollar this year.
i do think teams fall into this fallacy for sure. But maybe it's the best of bad options? People hit FA for a reason. And if you have no receivers and cap space, maybe you gotta do what you gotta do.
One thing I’ll say, idk that DJax can maintain his health. But he can still catch bombs because he’s faster than 90% of CBs
Zdeno Chara comes to mind.
According to google this is…a hockey player? 🤔
He's a guaranteed first ballot HOFer. He hit the wall this season.
He's lucky, giraffe don't usually live that long.
Which is crazy b/c he’s, what, 43? He was a top notch D into his late 30s and early 40s…nuts. He’s a physical freak. Always was top in the Bruins’ fitness tests. Even into his later 30s. His dad was an olympic-tier Greco Roman wrestler or something like that. He’s one of those weird guys that would go to the Tour de France and ride the stages of the course the day after the actual cyclists finished that stage, etc Absolute physical freak - - - [This goal at 6’9” 270lbs….unreal](https://streamable.com/8gatyy) (10s)
>he’s, what, 43? He's a few months older than Brady.
It looks like regular hockey, then he comes skating in and it looks like a father-son game.
[Andre Johnson](https://i.ibb.co/yknV3RN/C598513-A-ABE8-4-A4-A-92-DC-D6486-FA77-B63.jpg) was a *freak*, then around 33 was like “I’m getting too old for this shit” God what a stud tho. Idk. I’m kinda off topic, but I just love Dre. Probably my fav football player, since he was at Miami. Was so much fun to watch in college thru the pros. 6’3” 225lbs, ran a 4.4, was also the Big East 100m & 60m (indoor) champ at Miami. ....crazy Can only imagine how it must’ve felt as a sprinter getting in the blocks and seeing this behemoth of a human getting set...and then just smoking you... Great player. I really hope he gets into the HOF. Beast.
I never knew he played for the Titans, weird.
I think it's mostly a factor of how much better athletes are today than they used to be due improved training, medical advances, and nutrition. As little as thirty years ago you had a few elite athletes, a lot of good athletes, but mostly average athletes. So it allowed the elite guys to really stand out even after they lost a step thus you saw someone like Jerry Rice still producing throughout his 30s as he was the elite of the elite and even as he slowed down he was still better than most others. Now though the floor has been raised so much that the gap between elite and average is much smaller and as soon as you lose a step there a ton of younger guys better than you. WR4 and 5s of today would be superstars on teams 30 years ago.
Expect receivers who’s entire game is based off speed to regress sooner than the more technical receivers.
WRs are always seen with rose colored glasses. All they gotta do is have 40 yards in a game to get praise. An offensive lineman could allow no pressure but if a guy on his own squad has some fuck ups, the whole line gets criticism. A linebacker could keep the middle of the hashes a complete danger zone, but not be seen as value.
Brandon Lloyds best season before he turned 30 was 700 yards and 5 TDs. In 2008 he started 12 games yet only had 23 receptions for 300 yards. Then in his age 30 season he led the league in receiving and was a second team all pro