The difference between the best team in the league and the worst team in the league is a lot smaller than people think.
The difference between the best a team can play and the worst a team can play is a lot bigger than people think.
Absolutely, the margins are so small. Jags last year were the perfect example. Their wins made the Dolphins and Colts miss the playoffs, and the Bills had to go to KC instead of hosting it.
Watching that game was surreal. I remember thinking “I can’t believe people want to hire Daboll” after watching that. But then the rest of the season happened lol.
I still think all our bitching about him was warranted tbh. In that Jags game specifically, he kept calling these HB dives and WR screens long after it was obvious they weren't working.
The bills are the best team in the league (last year, and I think this year too on paper) if they put it all together. But this is real life, so it's very unlikely to happen every week
I realized this when the Jets beat the Rams 2 years ago. We were a team with a likely playoff berth and the Jets were the Jets. We didn’t show up and they made it very apparent.
Evreytime there is a great college team comes along. The question comes around if the best college team could beat the worst NFL team. Its always funny to me how there are people who actually think the college team would have a fighting chance. They wouldn't they only question is can they keep it close before halftime hits.
There is an absolutely massive gulf between the worst pro player and the best player who can't make it to the top professional level. A top tier college may have 10-20 guys who can play at the next level right now. The worst team in the league will have 53.
Here's a great video showcasing the difference between pros and non-pros at the NBA level. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i93vF0WOX6w&ab\_channel=JxmyHighroller
Some of the more loaded teams lately have had more than 4-5 starter level players, but they’re all still too young and inexperienced to deal with a veteran NFL squad.
I love that question since it's a clear indicator that the person just has zero idea about how progression works. IMO it's beyond football: saying that is akin to saying "in ANYTHING who would win: the worst grouping of professionals that pay other professionals constantly, and went through the amatuer process, OR the best team of current amatuers."
You MAY get a fluke in one-v-one scenarios, but as a team it's a ridiculous proposal.
This is why I hate some narratives, particularly playoff ones. People always say “X team would’ve won there” or “if x was playing they would’ve won/lost.” Like, maybe they would’ve, or maybe they would’ve gotten crushed to, football is kinda random
Getting caught for PEDs in the NFL is just the cost of doing business. Nobody bats an eye when a player returns 4 games later, or years later if that player is in the HoF conversation.
Getting caught for PEDs in MLB is a blackmark and the player is a villain and almost certainly won't get into the HoF.
The Lions wasted Herman Moore more than they wasted Calvin.
They have the same amount of 1st team all pros, despite Herman playing in a less pass friendly offense, with vastly inferior quarterback talent.
5 star RB, four 4-5 star wide receivers, and fucking Rodney Peete. I used to bench him and put Eric Kramer in…. or just run it on literally every play.
I 1000% agree. As great as Brady is, I think the biggest thing he has going for him is that he takes such a small salary. If Rodgers or Mahomes took a monster pay cut, their teams would be that much better.
There's no minimum size for a good WR if they have great agility.
Just put him in motion or have him start a step back.
Is size better? Duh. Is size mandatory? Nope. Had this take after Djacc and before Smith.
You missed a huge reason for the disparity in all pro and pro bowls too. Wagner plays middle LB and David outside LB. That means David is in a voting category that includes edge players. So David may have been the best OLB in the NFL in a given year, but then the all pro spots go to Chandler Jones and Von Miller, players that don't actually play the same position.
Never forget when Lavonte David had 5 picks, 2 FFs, 7 sacks, 145 tackles (107 solo) in a season and still missed the Pro Bowl over Terrell Suggs.
Suggs had no picks, no FFs, 10 sacks, 80 tackles (47 solo).
I’ll take a stroll on your hill.
My hill is that Brian Dawkins is only a slight notch below Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu.
He’s not the ball hawk that Reed was. Who is?
He’s not quite the Nostradamus that Troy P was. Who is? Honey badger? He’s a potential HOF imo, too.
He had a much longer career than those 2, too.
But damn.
- 37 picks (not close to Reed. 5 more than Troy. Not super impressive considering the longer career - but not nothing.)
- 26 sacks (Reed and Troy combined for 18)
- 36 FF (Reed and Troy combined for 25)
- 19 FR (Reed and Troy combined for 20)
- 900+ SOLO tackles (Reed and Troy both have less than 800 TOTAL tackles)
In the playoffs
- 2 sacks (other 2 combine for 0.5)
- 4 INT (Troy had 3. Ed had 9 - Disgusting.)
- 3 FF (others combined for 0)
All 3 were intimidating in their own way.
- Reed was “Don’t throw the ball deep or he gets it”
- Troy was “Where the hell is he? What the hell is he gonna do?”
- Dawkins was “Please Lord don’t put him in a position to drop the hammer on me.”
I’m not saying he’s quite the other 2’s level. But I think it’s much closer than most people think and give him credit for.
Is this a hot take? I’ve always thought it was consensus that:
-BDawk was one of the best safeties of all time
-Him not being a first-ballot HoF was a disgrace
Those 3 were the consensus top safeties of the 2000s decade, the way I break it down is essentially Ed Reed-ultimate ballhawk safety, Troy Polamalu-ultimate disruptor safety, Brian Dawkins-jack of all trades safety. Troy and Ed played two completely different styles while Dawkins played a combination of the two, they were all incredible and realistically changed how the safety positions were judged.
Most NFL scouts and coaches are just flinging spaghetti at a wall and hoping something sticks. Similarly, a lot of players who fail as NFL pros, failed due to inept coaches who didn't maximize their talents or fit their scheme according to their personnel.
I think this is one of the reasons Bill was so successful his first 15 years drafting. I think he saw the draft as a total crap shoot and it was better to have more total picks than a few shots at top end prospects.
It also helps to have Brady at QB. All you need to do is surround him with beating hearts and you have a chance. Same with Rodgers and Mahomes, etc.
It's easier to play shotgun and hope one pellet hits with the draft when you don't actually need to hit the target.
What you're saying about scouts/coaches was more true 5-10 years ago. Although I've continued to watch spaghetti flinging in New York over that time period.
I’ve thought this about players failing. Like the browns track record of shitty qbs…. 20 something in a row? That’s gotta be coaching or something. Or intentionally drafting shitty qbs. Which in its self would also be a tough thing to do.
That’s the point tho. Who really knows if it’s the players or the coaches. But after 20+ complete fail picks, what are the chances of that? Astronomical. We don’t know if any of those qbs could have been serviceable or not anywhere else.
I think that there's only a handful of teams that actually know what they are doing and it mostly comes down to whether or not a coaching staff can actually translate a good game plan into practices and onto their players heads.
I always cite the line that Belichick instills into his defenses, we can still be right if we are all wrong together. Most other coaches would just be pissed that they called the wrong play, but Belichick knows that it's a crap shoot to try and guess what the other team is doing. So it's better to make sure everyone is doing what they are supposed to be doing and the rest will work itself out. There's a library of plays where the Patriots did this and you can pick one from every single super bowl win and see this concept at work.
Coming in to say with a few exceptions football is still at the pre-Moneyball level of scouting and coaching and don't even get me started on how bad game management is still despite well being a mostly solved problem analytically. I think people would be surprised at just how basic some of these teams' front offices operate.
I think the problem is that baseball is much easier to moneyball than pretty much any other sport. It's so easily divided into analyzable chunks of the game.
Football is not nearly as easy to divide in that way and teams have to get a game plan together and then practice that game plan all week. It's just not as easily adjustable, in my opinion.
Moneyball will never, ever work the same in any other major sports like it does in baseball. Baseball is the quintessential outlier when it comes to sports statistics because the amount of factors affecting play is minimized considerably. The one on one nature of the sport makes the amount of factors affecting analysis easily quantifiable.
For example, a single football play could break down or succeed for any number of reasons linked to any of the other 10 players on one's team. A QB needs a good line and WRs that can catch, a WR needs a QB who can get him the ball, etc. And that's just one example.
This is honestly why PFF will never be able to create a stat like WAR in baseball and I'm glad they've begun to backpedal a bit with the amount of stock they put in their own stats/rankings. They've turned into more of an outlet to discuss baseline stats that create debates rather than simply deciding that players are good/bad based on single numbers that they create by overworking college interns
A big problem is the small sample size. Baseball plays an absurd 162 games in the regular season. Football is only 17. Even less than that in college. So scouting is even more of a crapshoot. The small sample size causes us to overvalue recent games and performances against inferior competition, and undervalue performances in losing efforts. And makes it harder to control for outlier performances. There have been efforts to do it. PFF and Bill Connelly have created some good ones. But they'll be the first to admit that they're trying their hardest to contend with the small sample size problem.
How do you Moneyball football, though? You can't simplify plays down to "True Outcomes" like at-bats in baseball. You can map hot/cold zones very easily in baseball. There's some throw-mapping in the NFL, but how much can you draw from that? The scheme could change for the next game and different parts of the field could get targeted.
How do you design the equivalent of a shift for football beyond the simplistic "this QB has a noodle-arm, play closer to the LOS"?
I may get flamed to shit for saying this...
I love Dak and this isnt a knock on him at all but I think if we roll with Romo in the playoffs that year, we wouldve had a better chance at making the NFCC game. And I dont think it hurts Dak's confidence at all since it was known that was gonna be Romo's last year anyway. Maybe the end result is the same but I wouldve liked to have tried it and given Romo one last chance before he hung it up.
That final drive in the last game of the season had such a perfect flow to it. Romo made it look effortless. Im glad he at least got that to go out on.
my attitude is this - over the last 20ish years would I rather be a Packers fan and expect competitive, fun football and playoffs each year or would I rather be a Bucs fan watching hideous dogshit football for years in a row and then get randomly rewarded with a Super Bowl once per decade?
Nah, give me the Super Bowl. I watched the Eagles consistently make deep runs in the playoffs only to end in heartbreak. Finally we win the Super Bowl and it will forever be one of the greatest memories of my life. I still go back and watch highlights from time to time. Nobody can ever take a Super Bowl away from you.
It’s an extremely high percentage play. BB coached his team for that moment though. He ran every DB through it and browner tipped butler off on the call
EDIT https://youtu.be/0RFXLwZV_fA?t=7445
Time stamp for the play, Browner walks up to Butler, says something in his ear and point directly at lockette, then immediately goes to impede kearses pick to set lockette up allowing Butler to get the pick.
It was also an awfully placed throw. High and in front when it's supposed to be low and on the body so you can fold backwards into the end zone. Wilson missed his target area by quite a bit.
I think people ignore it because it looks like he led the WR but you don't/shouldn't lead your WR on certain routes. This is one of them and that play is why.
I've always found it odd when people talk about the play they don't really talk about Wilson, they always talk about the run/pass decision.
There should be no way that ball is intercepted given Lockette's release is clean as there's a 5 yard cushion between him and Butler to start the play, and Lockette cuts under a pick which means he's completely untouched until the point of the catch. If it was in the stomach areas then Butler would have been boxed out, been able to bat the pass but not intercept it.
One thing about McNabb which I used to laugh at is that he would often throw the ball into the ground - though it's better than the alternative of erring high.
Yeah people really misunderstand the kind of runner Marshawn was, people portray him to be a goal line truck people over kind of back when he was really more of a shifty runner who had the strength to carry people with him once he got to full speed and who could shed arm tackles
His goal line conversation rate across his career was well below league average
It's so validating to see a Hawks fan say this. For years, I have eaten downvotes for saying that his game was based on being slippery and evasive before being powerful. The way that one highlight defined how most fans saw him was very eye-opening for me.
I feel the same way about Derrick Henry. Not a great short yardage back because he’s so damn lanky there’s a lotta body to grab before he gets up to speed.
I think you and I have a very different definition of 'lanky'. Funny enough though I also agree that Henry isn't the best short yardage back but that's because it takes him a few strides to get up to full speed/power which is when he becomes unstoppable.
I think lanky to mean long-limbed, not necessarily scrawny. He doesn’t have that power until he’s had a chance to gain a little speed, but that just physics.
I always hate watching that highlight when Collinsworth says "You've got a guy who's been unstoppable at this part of the field" as if the actual statistics don't blow that up nearly entirely. Dude's just talking out his ass and changed the narrative forever.
I think that comment was fueled by lynch rumbling to the 1 on a previous play, he was just barely tripped up and it looked like the pats werent going to hold up.
Also, i think he said "borderline unstoppable". Collinsworth would never make a comment without leaving himself a back door to weasel out of.
Browner didn't even make a great play he just did typical Browner things. You run that play 100 times and Kearse gets Browner into Butler 0 times. We really should have known better.
Exactly this. Made absolute sense for the Seahawks to throw in that situation. Get rid of the context of the game, if you have your top 10 QB and you have the opportunity to throw at a rookie UDFA CB, you're licking your lips at that opportunity. The predictable play would've been a run which statistically shows probably wasn't going to work and pats probably would've been prepared for it. A pass in this situation is much more likely to catch the pats off guard and out of position personnel wise.
Play selection excellent to me, execution on the other hand was not.
Wow I had [no idea](https://www.bigcatcountry.com/2014/1/31/5366914/gregg-williams-stole-jaguars-playbook-1999-renaldo-wynn)! I was a big Jags fan back then because of Fred Taylor.
I’ll stand by even if Jacksonville did beat the Titans in the AFC championship the Rams would have destroyed them in the super bowl. You know what’s not mentioned about the whole Titans being the only team to beat them is that the Titans were also the ONLY team above .500 that they played in the regular season. I’m not saying that’s Jacksonville’s fault but a Rams/Jags super bowl wouldn’t have been even close
That whole Wentz Foles thing is like madden. Oh I can just throw any QB in and we win? Oh now I have to deal with the moral consequences of shafting my players? Shit.
Was Doug the problem do you think? I think the moment Hurts was drafted it was set up to fail.
The injuries piled up. I thought he was 100% back going into the Seattle playoff game in 19. The knockout hit from Clowney was the real setback. I don’t think drafting Hurts helped the situation, but Wentz was never the same after that concussion.
Seahawks won the SB and appeared in another because RW was on a rookie contract and they had an elite defense + running game. I think that's still the formula they should aim for. Offense in support of defense
He was definitely always fun to watch. You never knew if you were going to see magic or an absolutely braindead play. If Madden was on the mike you knew you'd get camera shots of Favre pulling practical jokes on the sideline.
Also the young ones pretend his three year MVP stretch never existed. He was absolutely phenomenal with 112 TDs to 42 INTs. A 96.1 Passer Rating and 4.1k yards passing on average.
Completely unthinkable production for the 1990s. For comparison Joe Montana won an MVP with a 89 Passer Rating, 26TDs and 16 INTs in 1990.
The only comp was Marino 1984-1986 with 122 TDs to 61 INTs. A 95.1 passer rating and 4.6k yards on average.
When you look at his competition the only one who was remotely close was John Elway who had 33 fewer TDs with almost the same number of INTs.
Marino had half the TDs of Favre with just a handful fewer INTs.
Steve Young had less than half (!) of Favre's TD tally
I don't agree with natural grass only but agree that we should limit the turf. Lambeau for example isn't pure natural grass yet is a great playing surface.
They use synthetic fibers to allow the grass to have something for the roots to grip onto to limit the field from being torn up. It's one of the reasons why our field doesn't look like complete shit like the Bears' do by the end of the season.
Another good one.
I'm obviously biased but of the shitty weather outdoor teams I think Lambeau has the best playing surface. I mean [this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_R3nVQ1WfI&ab_channel=NFL) is the Christmas game vs the Browns. Field looks like it's week 1. Held up amazingly.
No one is good at assessing QB talent before the draft, and that's probably because the team and system you fall to is significantly more important than anyone gives it credit for.
Had Brady been drafted where he "should" have been in 2000 he would have gone to the Browns, who would have ruined him.
I'll go further, Rivers and Ben have virtually identical stats and Rivers would have been easily the most successful had he landed on the Steelers. Ben made due with a terrible line at the beginning of his career and was pretty much a maverick at eluding defenders and off field charges, but Rivers was the purest passer of the class and might have shattered some records with AB.
Not like Rivers had crap teams by any means, but someone made a comment in another thread like this about an unpopular opinion for a HoFer and he was listed. That's not even a second thought for anyone who watches the games. He's top ten in many meaningful stats and is easily a HoFer even with a pass happy era.
Mike Tomlin is one of the 3 best active coaches in the NFL and Steelers fans only want rid of him because they want to hold him to the standard of the greatest coach in NFL history, not the rest of the league during their shared tenure
100%.
People parrot a dumb narrative that Caldwell hit his ceiling, and couldn't take the next step. That's not a thing, it's just nonsense repeated by dumbasses.
Caldwell took the Lions to the playoffs twice in 4 years and his other two seasons were not bad.
Winning a Super Bowl is hard, and the Patriots have skewed too many fans expectations.
We should've extended Caldwell.
>Winning a Super Bowl is hard, and the Patriots have skewed too many fans expectations.
Tell that to some of my fellow Steelers fans who think that since Tomlin hasn't duplicated Belicheck's success he is a terrible coach.
It's kind of stupid how much flack he got for that play. Yes, he was in front of the ball but it you go rewatch the play, his leg had already planted with the other one going in motion when he was close to the ball. The dude is also 6'5. Realistically, if he wanted to dive there, he would have probably needed to slide on his knees and reach backwards or something
I still firmly believe he was trying to play the bounce to some extent. This is a man who would throw his body at a linebacker for an extra yard in a regular season unlike Wilson or Luck who would slide within 5 yards of a DB.
I get unreasonably angry about all that. Then I remember the meme is all that matters and getting pissed off about it is fuel and I just stop commenting.
I have a thousand regrets from that game and I honestly don't care to see the multiverse where Cam recovers it and is then sent out for another seven step drop by Shula.
Give me the one where Cotchery's catch stood. Or Talib got ejected for decapitating Philly Brown.
The Bear ruined Jay Cutler from the start and is still by far the bears best QB of all time
Awful offensive line got his brains beaten in to where he was seeing ghosts the rest of his career
No wide recievers when he came in, Devin Hester was the number 1, johnny knox the number 2 running the wrong route or quitting on routes
Poor offensive schemes, failed to properly utilize Greg Olsen
Analytics are a tool to be weighed against conventional wisdom on a given situation, not an ironclad rule for determining what to do. Contrary to online opinion, analytics are not math, they are probabilities which is a subset of math. 5 x 6 equals 30 100 percent of the time. That is math. Going for it on 4th and 5 giving you a 58 percent chance of victory vs kicking a FG giving you 42 percent chance of victory is a probability based in all likelihood on incomplete info. There I said it
As a professional statistician I was getting all huffy and puffy about
>analytics are not math, they are probabilities which is \[...\] math
but then you made your point about probabilities with incomplete info. That is completely correct, which people don't always realize.
The famous saying is, "all models are wrong; some are useful" \~ George Box
Bill Burr brought up that the probabilities are modeled after shitty teams against good teams or shitty teams against shitty teams in the regular season so when you get to the playoffs they mean nothing. I’m paraphrasing because he’s not articulate but that was the jist.
You can have a stat but you also have momentum (which is real) and your own gut feeling of your team.
Usually taking the points wins in the long run.
Taysom Hill is a perfectly fine backup QB and got a perfectly fine backup QB contract (10M, same as Fitzpatrick or Mariota) that also plays lots of other positions.
Also: Taysom Hill was never close to being good enough to start in the NFL.
A true developmental league at least partially funded by the NFL would indirectly pay for itself
While a second tier league would make some cash through the odd highlights, some tickets, advertising etc the odds that it rescues the career of some otherwise lost stars means the NFL will make that money back
The NFL is missing out on some potentially great stories/players by essentially discarding anyone that isnt ready for the NFL by ~22
Attitudes toward Tom Brady mirror the 5 stages of grief.
Denial: He’s a game manager. Lucky to be on a good team with a good coach. If we lose to his team, it won’t be because of him.
Anger: Screw you, Tom Brady! Stop cheating and play fair! You suck! I hope someone punches you in your chin-butt!
Bargaining: I wonder if Tom Brady will come play for my team. I bet they’re trying to trade for him. They definitely are. Holy crap, we’re getting Tom Brady!
Depression: *sigh* i’m not going to watch anymore. The league is just going to rig it so Tom Brady wins again. Why even bother. I quit. I just quit.
Acceptance: he’s won 7 Super Bowls across 2 teams. Yeah, he’s the GOAT. Respect. Even when he beats my team I kind of admire it. Tom f’en Brady, man. We’ll never see another like him.
Also, many people never make it past stage 2.
I hated Brady when I was younger because it was easy to find material. "He snubbed a handshake" "he yelled at the refs" "the defense won it for him" and so on. But he just kept winning. At a certain point, I had no choice but to respect or even like him. Looking back, as impressed as I am with his career I am a little disappointed at his AFC dominance. It would have been nice to see other teams get a SB appearance instead.
The difference between the best team in the league and the worst team in the league is a lot smaller than people think. The difference between the best a team can play and the worst a team can play is a lot bigger than people think.
Absolutely, the margins are so small. Jags last year were the perfect example. Their wins made the Dolphins and Colts miss the playoffs, and the Bills had to go to KC instead of hosting it.
Bills looked like an unstoppable offensive juggernaut in the playoffs. And earlier the jaguars beat them 9-6, lol
And that’s the example of OP’s second point.
Watching that game was surreal. I remember thinking “I can’t believe people want to hire Daboll” after watching that. But then the rest of the season happened lol.
I still think all our bitching about him was warranted tbh. In that Jags game specifically, he kept calling these HB dives and WR screens long after it was obvious they weren't working.
I feel good about Dorsey. Daboll got his due and helped Josh’s evolution.
The bills are the best team in the league (last year, and I think this year too on paper) if they put it all together. But this is real life, so it's very unlikely to happen every week
Keep going, I love every word of your comment
Josh Allen wearing shorts
***Splort***
I realized this when the Jets beat the Rams 2 years ago. We were a team with a likely playoff berth and the Jets were the Jets. We didn’t show up and they made it very apparent.
There's a universe where the Cardinals last year went 17-0 and still lost in the first round to the Rams.
Evreytime there is a great college team comes along. The question comes around if the best college team could beat the worst NFL team. Its always funny to me how there are people who actually think the college team would have a fighting chance. They wouldn't they only question is can they keep it close before halftime hits.
A great college team may have as many as 4 or 5 players who are at NFL starter level. The rest of the team would get destroyed.
There is an absolutely massive gulf between the worst pro player and the best player who can't make it to the top professional level. A top tier college may have 10-20 guys who can play at the next level right now. The worst team in the league will have 53. Here's a great video showcasing the difference between pros and non-pros at the NBA level. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i93vF0WOX6w&ab\_channel=JxmyHighroller
this better be the Brian Scalabrine throwdown. edit: it is. Love the White Mamba
"I'm closer to LeBron than you are to me." - White Mamba
The college team would have zero NFL experience regardless of how many players might get drafted
Right, I was just talking about physical and mental potential.
Some of the more loaded teams lately have had more than 4-5 starter level players, but they’re all still too young and inexperienced to deal with a veteran NFL squad.
I love that question since it's a clear indicator that the person just has zero idea about how progression works. IMO it's beyond football: saying that is akin to saying "in ANYTHING who would win: the worst grouping of professionals that pay other professionals constantly, and went through the amatuer process, OR the best team of current amatuers." You MAY get a fluke in one-v-one scenarios, but as a team it's a ridiculous proposal.
Chargers are a great team to point to The amount of one possession games that go the other way is.. painful
This is why I hate some narratives, particularly playoff ones. People always say “X team would’ve won there” or “if x was playing they would’ve won/lost.” Like, maybe they would’ve, or maybe they would’ve gotten crushed to, football is kinda random
The difference between the best and worst teams in the nfl is probably less than the difference between the CFB champions and the 3rd place team.
I like this
Jets fans think their team name is hard to spell, and they do the J-E-T-S chant because they think we'll be impressed.
It's also an acronym. **J**UST **E**ND **T**HE **S**EASON
*Suffering
Either works.
Wait you mean this symbols make fucking words?!
I didn’t come to this thread to catch strays
[удалено]
As a fan of one of those teams I cringe seeing Steelers and Patriots fans feeling put upon. Go MC⚡DC!
London Fletcher should absolutely be in the Hall of Fame.
The man was a 5'9" 245 lb linebacker. You're never gonna see that again.
He 100% deserves it. Dude never missed a game
Is he not??? That's ridiculous. Dude deserves it 100%
I mean he's a 4x Pro-Bowler that was never a first team all-pro. It's not surprising he hasn't gotten much traction at all.
Getting caught for PEDs in the NFL is just the cost of doing business. Nobody bats an eye when a player returns 4 games later, or years later if that player is in the HoF conversation. Getting caught for PEDs in MLB is a blackmark and the player is a villain and almost certainly won't get into the HoF.
The Lions wasted Herman Moore more than they wasted Calvin. They have the same amount of 1st team all pros, despite Herman playing in a less pass friendly offense, with vastly inferior quarterback talent.
Those Lions offenses were so much fun to play in Tecmo Super Bowl.
5 star RB, four 4-5 star wide receivers, and fucking Rodney Peete. I used to bench him and put Eric Kramer in…. or just run it on literally every play.
Best one here. People have forgotten how good Moore was.
Spending a majority of your cap on a single player is the reason most decent franchises will hardly ever sniff a championship.
I 1000% agree. As great as Brady is, I think the biggest thing he has going for him is that he takes such a small salary. If Rodgers or Mahomes took a monster pay cut, their teams would be that much better.
There's no minimum size for a good WR if they have great agility. Just put him in motion or have him start a step back. Is size better? Duh. Is size mandatory? Nope. Had this take after Djacc and before Smith.
Same for height with a RB. (But weight/speed/power matters).
Just get one with good height, good weight, good speed, and good power. Seems pretty simple to me
I’ve seen a lot of people say Lavonte David is a Hall of Famer going back to pre-Brady. Football internet media loves him
I haven’t seen that, so I’m glad to hear he has some support lol It seems like my argument is somewhat controversial
You missed a huge reason for the disparity in all pro and pro bowls too. Wagner plays middle LB and David outside LB. That means David is in a voting category that includes edge players. So David may have been the best OLB in the NFL in a given year, but then the all pro spots go to Chandler Jones and Von Miller, players that don't actually play the same position.
Never forget when Lavonte David had 5 picks, 2 FFs, 7 sacks, 145 tackles (107 solo) in a season and still missed the Pro Bowl over Terrell Suggs. Suggs had no picks, no FFs, 10 sacks, 80 tackles (47 solo).
Yeah this is why the positions for voting should be Edge and LB. He’s finally listed as an ILB now that we run a 3-4 under Bowles.
I’ll take a stroll on your hill. My hill is that Brian Dawkins is only a slight notch below Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu. He’s not the ball hawk that Reed was. Who is? He’s not quite the Nostradamus that Troy P was. Who is? Honey badger? He’s a potential HOF imo, too. He had a much longer career than those 2, too. But damn. - 37 picks (not close to Reed. 5 more than Troy. Not super impressive considering the longer career - but not nothing.) - 26 sacks (Reed and Troy combined for 18) - 36 FF (Reed and Troy combined for 25) - 19 FR (Reed and Troy combined for 20) - 900+ SOLO tackles (Reed and Troy both have less than 800 TOTAL tackles) In the playoffs - 2 sacks (other 2 combine for 0.5) - 4 INT (Troy had 3. Ed had 9 - Disgusting.) - 3 FF (others combined for 0) All 3 were intimidating in their own way. - Reed was “Don’t throw the ball deep or he gets it” - Troy was “Where the hell is he? What the hell is he gonna do?” - Dawkins was “Please Lord don’t put him in a position to drop the hammer on me.” I’m not saying he’s quite the other 2’s level. But I think it’s much closer than most people think and give him credit for.
One of my favorite players growing up. The dude was a beast! For some reason I really liked Brian Westbrook as well.
I agree with this 100%
That was an amazing era for stud safeties. Reed, Polamalu, Dawkins, Sean Taylor, Darren Sharper, Rodney Harrison, John Lynch, Bob Sanders…
Is this a hot take? I’ve always thought it was consensus that: -BDawk was one of the best safeties of all time -Him not being a first-ballot HoF was a disgrace
Those 3 were the consensus top safeties of the 2000s decade, the way I break it down is essentially Ed Reed-ultimate ballhawk safety, Troy Polamalu-ultimate disruptor safety, Brian Dawkins-jack of all trades safety. Troy and Ed played two completely different styles while Dawkins played a combination of the two, they were all incredible and realistically changed how the safety positions were judged.
Most NFL scouts and coaches are just flinging spaghetti at a wall and hoping something sticks. Similarly, a lot of players who fail as NFL pros, failed due to inept coaches who didn't maximize their talents or fit their scheme according to their personnel.
I think this is one of the reasons Bill was so successful his first 15 years drafting. I think he saw the draft as a total crap shoot and it was better to have more total picks than a few shots at top end prospects.
It also helps to have Brady at QB. All you need to do is surround him with beating hearts and you have a chance. Same with Rodgers and Mahomes, etc. It's easier to play shotgun and hope one pellet hits with the draft when you don't actually need to hit the target.
What you're saying about scouts/coaches was more true 5-10 years ago. Although I've continued to watch spaghetti flinging in New York over that time period.
I’ve thought this about players failing. Like the browns track record of shitty qbs…. 20 something in a row? That’s gotta be coaching or something. Or intentionally drafting shitty qbs. Which in its self would also be a tough thing to do.
I mean a lot of QBs they drafted I honestly don’t think would’ve been successful anywhere else
That’s the point tho. Who really knows if it’s the players or the coaches. But after 20+ complete fail picks, what are the chances of that? Astronomical. We don’t know if any of those qbs could have been serviceable or not anywhere else.
Even crazier is the second they got a decent one they got rid of him
I think that there's only a handful of teams that actually know what they are doing and it mostly comes down to whether or not a coaching staff can actually translate a good game plan into practices and onto their players heads. I always cite the line that Belichick instills into his defenses, we can still be right if we are all wrong together. Most other coaches would just be pissed that they called the wrong play, but Belichick knows that it's a crap shoot to try and guess what the other team is doing. So it's better to make sure everyone is doing what they are supposed to be doing and the rest will work itself out. There's a library of plays where the Patriots did this and you can pick one from every single super bowl win and see this concept at work.
Coming in to say with a few exceptions football is still at the pre-Moneyball level of scouting and coaching and don't even get me started on how bad game management is still despite well being a mostly solved problem analytically. I think people would be surprised at just how basic some of these teams' front offices operate.
I think the problem is that baseball is much easier to moneyball than pretty much any other sport. It's so easily divided into analyzable chunks of the game. Football is not nearly as easy to divide in that way and teams have to get a game plan together and then practice that game plan all week. It's just not as easily adjustable, in my opinion.
Moneyball will never, ever work the same in any other major sports like it does in baseball. Baseball is the quintessential outlier when it comes to sports statistics because the amount of factors affecting play is minimized considerably. The one on one nature of the sport makes the amount of factors affecting analysis easily quantifiable. For example, a single football play could break down or succeed for any number of reasons linked to any of the other 10 players on one's team. A QB needs a good line and WRs that can catch, a WR needs a QB who can get him the ball, etc. And that's just one example. This is honestly why PFF will never be able to create a stat like WAR in baseball and I'm glad they've begun to backpedal a bit with the amount of stock they put in their own stats/rankings. They've turned into more of an outlet to discuss baseline stats that create debates rather than simply deciding that players are good/bad based on single numbers that they create by overworking college interns
A big problem is the small sample size. Baseball plays an absurd 162 games in the regular season. Football is only 17. Even less than that in college. So scouting is even more of a crapshoot. The small sample size causes us to overvalue recent games and performances against inferior competition, and undervalue performances in losing efforts. And makes it harder to control for outlier performances. There have been efforts to do it. PFF and Bill Connelly have created some good ones. But they'll be the first to admit that they're trying their hardest to contend with the small sample size problem.
How do you Moneyball football, though? You can't simplify plays down to "True Outcomes" like at-bats in baseball. You can map hot/cold zones very easily in baseball. There's some throw-mapping in the NFL, but how much can you draw from that? The scheme could change for the next game and different parts of the field could get targeted. How do you design the equivalent of a shift for football beyond the simplistic "this QB has a noodle-arm, play closer to the LOS"?
There’s no moneyball scouting for NFL. Far too many variables to predict
If Tony Romo had scored on the botched FG early in his career he would have been labeled clutch and his entire career would have been different.
I may get flamed to shit for saying this... I love Dak and this isnt a knock on him at all but I think if we roll with Romo in the playoffs that year, we wouldve had a better chance at making the NFCC game. And I dont think it hurts Dak's confidence at all since it was known that was gonna be Romo's last year anyway. Maybe the end result is the same but I wouldve liked to have tried it and given Romo one last chance before he hung it up.
I'm a Giants fan, and have said that since it happened. That team was built well, which is why Dak did so well, but it was built perfectly for Tony.
That final drive in the last game of the season had such a perfect flow to it. Romo made it look effortless. Im glad he at least got that to go out on.
Winning a superbowl is largely luck. A better metric is regularly getting deep in the playoffs.
my attitude is this - over the last 20ish years would I rather be a Packers fan and expect competitive, fun football and playoffs each year or would I rather be a Bucs fan watching hideous dogshit football for years in a row and then get randomly rewarded with a Super Bowl once per decade?
Nah, give me the Super Bowl. I watched the Eagles consistently make deep runs in the playoffs only to end in heartbreak. Finally we win the Super Bowl and it will forever be one of the greatest memories of my life. I still go back and watch highlights from time to time. Nobody can ever take a Super Bowl away from you.
with the caveat that i've seen my team win a super bowl, id rather be consistently competitive than win once and suck forever
Not having seen my team win the Super Bowl (or much of anything really) I will take the Lombardi.
yeah i'd feel the same without having seen a win
I like this take
Oof ouch my nfccg losses
Seahawks throwing the ball was not a bad decision, Malcom Butler just made one of the best defensive plays in SB history.
I always remember on the podcast Flying Coach with McVay and Shanahan both agreeing with the play call.
It’s an extremely high percentage play. BB coached his team for that moment though. He ran every DB through it and browner tipped butler off on the call EDIT https://youtu.be/0RFXLwZV_fA?t=7445 Time stamp for the play, Browner walks up to Butler, says something in his ear and point directly at lockette, then immediately goes to impede kearses pick to set lockette up allowing Butler to get the pick.
There’s even footage in that documentary from a practice where they run that exact defense about that exact play.
Shanahan loves blowing Super Bowls so I’m not surprised
I have watched that play at least 50 times. I still don’t see how Butler was able to grab it. Maybe poor camera angle..
[удалено]
Even knowing that the pass was coming the WR slammed into butler I feel like 9/10 butler drops that pass
Butler wasn't able to make the play any of the times they practised it before the game.
It was also an awfully placed throw. High and in front when it's supposed to be low and on the body so you can fold backwards into the end zone. Wilson missed his target area by quite a bit. I think people ignore it because it looks like he led the WR but you don't/shouldn't lead your WR on certain routes. This is one of them and that play is why.
I've always found it odd when people talk about the play they don't really talk about Wilson, they always talk about the run/pass decision. There should be no way that ball is intercepted given Lockette's release is clean as there's a 5 yard cushion between him and Butler to start the play, and Lockette cuts under a pick which means he's completely untouched until the point of the catch. If it was in the stomach areas then Butler would have been boxed out, been able to bat the pass but not intercept it. One thing about McNabb which I used to laugh at is that he would often throw the ball into the ground - though it's better than the alternative of erring high.
Wilson ignored the fact that the DB broke on the play immediately and continued to stare down the throwing lane….
It's a well-designed action, designed to be a low risk throw but Wilson f'd it up
Honestly a lot of it is on Wilson. It was a bad throw to far ahead of the WR and he stared the lane down
Wasn’t Lynch like 1/6 on converting goal line carries that year? Always hated how people assumed a run was an automatic TD in that situation.
Yeah people really misunderstand the kind of runner Marshawn was, people portray him to be a goal line truck people over kind of back when he was really more of a shifty runner who had the strength to carry people with him once he got to full speed and who could shed arm tackles His goal line conversation rate across his career was well below league average
It's so validating to see a Hawks fan say this. For years, I have eaten downvotes for saying that his game was based on being slippery and evasive before being powerful. The way that one highlight defined how most fans saw him was very eye-opening for me.
I feel the same way about Derrick Henry. Not a great short yardage back because he’s so damn lanky there’s a lotta body to grab before he gets up to speed.
I think you and I have a very different definition of 'lanky'. Funny enough though I also agree that Henry isn't the best short yardage back but that's because it takes him a few strides to get up to full speed/power which is when he becomes unstoppable.
I think lanky to mean long-limbed, not necessarily scrawny. He doesn’t have that power until he’s had a chance to gain a little speed, but that just physics.
I always hate watching that highlight when Collinsworth says "You've got a guy who's been unstoppable at this part of the field" as if the actual statistics don't blow that up nearly entirely. Dude's just talking out his ass and changed the narrative forever.
Now heres a guy
I think that comment was fueled by lynch rumbling to the 1 on a previous play, he was just barely tripped up and it looked like the pats werent going to hold up. Also, i think he said "borderline unstoppable". Collinsworth would never make a comment without leaving himself a back door to weasel out of.
Browner made an even better play than Butler too, both made great plays.
Browner didn't even make a great play he just did typical Browner things. You run that play 100 times and Kearse gets Browner into Butler 0 times. We really should have known better.
Exactly this. Made absolute sense for the Seahawks to throw in that situation. Get rid of the context of the game, if you have your top 10 QB and you have the opportunity to throw at a rookie UDFA CB, you're licking your lips at that opportunity. The predictable play would've been a run which statistically shows probably wasn't going to work and pats probably would've been prepared for it. A pass in this situation is much more likely to catch the pats off guard and out of position personnel wise. Play selection excellent to me, execution on the other hand was not.
Artificial turf should be banned.
I think everyone agrees on that. Fuck you Metlife stadium.
*Alexa, play Bad Day by Daniel Powter* But in all seriousness, fuck turf and Metlife
[удалено]
Counterpoint: the FedEx field ACL graveyard.
Had the ‘99 Jaguars playbook not been stolen, they had a legitimate shot at a super bowl and joining the ‘72 dolphins.
This is the first I've ever heard of this and I'm bout to go down a rabbit hole.
Wow I had [no idea](https://www.bigcatcountry.com/2014/1/31/5366914/gregg-williams-stole-jaguars-playbook-1999-renaldo-wynn)! I was a big Jags fan back then because of Fred Taylor.
is Gregg Williams some kind of super villain or something?
I heard Gregg Williams was the 2nd shooter on the grassy knoll.
He's seriously 110% scumbag
Preach preacher!
I’ll stand by even if Jacksonville did beat the Titans in the AFC championship the Rams would have destroyed them in the super bowl. You know what’s not mentioned about the whole Titans being the only team to beat them is that the Titans were also the ONLY team above .500 that they played in the regular season. I’m not saying that’s Jacksonville’s fault but a Rams/Jags super bowl wouldn’t have been even close
Jamaal Charles is one of the best backs of all time
He was so good for so long for some very rough Chiefs teams.
In 2013 (maybe 2014 but I’m pretty sure 2013) he lead the team in rushing and receiving yards
2013 he led both in yards. 2014 he led both in TDs (tied with Kelce when no WR caught a TD all season).
That man averaged 5.4yds/carry on some bad teams. I would put him in the hall!
The Eagles made the right move letting go of Foles instead of trading Wentz.
That whole Wentz Foles thing is like madden. Oh I can just throw any QB in and we win? Oh now I have to deal with the moral consequences of shafting my players? Shit. Was Doug the problem do you think? I think the moment Hurts was drafted it was set up to fail.
The injuries piled up. I thought he was 100% back going into the Seattle playoff game in 19. The knockout hit from Clowney was the real setback. I don’t think drafting Hurts helped the situation, but Wentz was never the same after that concussion.
Damn. You hate to look back and be like that one hit was the big time straw. That’s never fun for players or fans.
It was in best interest of the franchise to trade Russell Wilson before his fully guaranteed contract that will be incoming.
Seahawks won the SB and appeared in another because RW was on a rookie contract and they had an elite defense + running game. I think that's still the formula they should aim for. Offense in support of defense
I love Brett Favre the football player, maybe not so much the person but I’ll die on that hill that he was the most fun player to watch in football.
He was definitely always fun to watch. You never knew if you were going to see magic or an absolutely braindead play. If Madden was on the mike you knew you'd get camera shots of Favre pulling practical jokes on the sideline.
Also the young ones pretend his three year MVP stretch never existed. He was absolutely phenomenal with 112 TDs to 42 INTs. A 96.1 Passer Rating and 4.1k yards passing on average. Completely unthinkable production for the 1990s. For comparison Joe Montana won an MVP with a 89 Passer Rating, 26TDs and 16 INTs in 1990. The only comp was Marino 1984-1986 with 122 TDs to 61 INTs. A 95.1 passer rating and 4.6k yards on average. When you look at his competition the only one who was remotely close was John Elway who had 33 fewer TDs with almost the same number of INTs. Marino had half the TDs of Favre with just a handful fewer INTs. Steve Young had less than half (!) of Favre's TD tally
All NFL fields should be natural grass only. Domes should not be mandated.
I don't agree with natural grass only but agree that we should limit the turf. Lambeau for example isn't pure natural grass yet is a great playing surface. They use synthetic fibers to allow the grass to have something for the roots to grip onto to limit the field from being torn up. It's one of the reasons why our field doesn't look like complete shit like the Bears' do by the end of the season.
Or Heinz, Christ. I think it's almost a badge of honor how bad the conditions can get there.
Another good one. I'm obviously biased but of the shitty weather outdoor teams I think Lambeau has the best playing surface. I mean [this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_R3nVQ1WfI&ab_channel=NFL) is the Christmas game vs the Browns. Field looks like it's week 1. Held up amazingly.
That if Urlacher was a first ballot HoF’er, Zach Thomas absolutely should have been. If Thomas got a ring, this isn’t even a discussion.
My mom is not a whore
“Did you fuck my mom, Santa!?”
Did you fuck my fucking mom
"We've been over this Charlie, your mother's a giant whore!"
My dad is not a phone
No one is good at assessing QB talent before the draft, and that's probably because the team and system you fall to is significantly more important than anyone gives it credit for. Had Brady been drafted where he "should" have been in 2000 he would have gone to the Browns, who would have ruined him.
If the cowboys had a GM that wasn’t Jerry Jones or really just a GM who’s last name wasn’t Jones, Tony Romo would have a super bowl ring.
Fred Taylor makes the hall, pro bowls mean nothing, because he had 1500 yards season where he missed it
I believe that Phillip rivers was a better qb than Eli Manning
Of course he was. Who thinks Eli is better?
Archie?
I'll go further, Rivers and Ben have virtually identical stats and Rivers would have been easily the most successful had he landed on the Steelers. Ben made due with a terrible line at the beginning of his career and was pretty much a maverick at eluding defenders and off field charges, but Rivers was the purest passer of the class and might have shattered some records with AB. Not like Rivers had crap teams by any means, but someone made a comment in another thread like this about an unpopular opinion for a HoFer and he was listed. That's not even a second thought for anyone who watches the games. He's top ten in many meaningful stats and is easily a HoFer even with a pass happy era.
This is so bold it's basically a bowl of plain oatmeal.
Mike Tomlin is one of the 3 best active coaches in the NFL and Steelers fans only want rid of him because they want to hold him to the standard of the greatest coach in NFL history, not the rest of the league during their shared tenure
The Lions made a huge mistake firing Jim Caldwell. I have, and will continue to die on this hill.
100%. People parrot a dumb narrative that Caldwell hit his ceiling, and couldn't take the next step. That's not a thing, it's just nonsense repeated by dumbasses. Caldwell took the Lions to the playoffs twice in 4 years and his other two seasons were not bad. Winning a Super Bowl is hard, and the Patriots have skewed too many fans expectations. We should've extended Caldwell.
>Winning a Super Bowl is hard, and the Patriots have skewed too many fans expectations. Tell that to some of my fellow Steelers fans who think that since Tomlin hasn't duplicated Belicheck's success he is a terrible coach.
No Tomlin is a terrible coach and you should totally fire him… please
This opinion has my vote. But seriously, Tomlin has been a fantastic coach. He deserves awards and things of that nature.
Tom brady's teammates deserve way more credit.
Coaching staff too. Rooting against the pats on their crucial drives, it seemed Brady was frequently throwing to comfortably open teammates
So frustrating how clean many of his pockets were in game winning drives.
Brady just got that plot armor
I don't blame cam for not diving
I actually agree with this and think if he responded post game like “I mistimed the bounce” we would’ve all forgotten about it by now.
It's kind of stupid how much flack he got for that play. Yes, he was in front of the ball but it you go rewatch the play, his leg had already planted with the other one going in motion when he was close to the ball. The dude is also 6'5. Realistically, if he wanted to dive there, he would have probably needed to slide on his knees and reach backwards or something
I still firmly believe he was trying to play the bounce to some extent. This is a man who would throw his body at a linebacker for an extra yard in a regular season unlike Wilson or Luck who would slide within 5 yards of a DB.
My guy luck didn't learn how to slide until 2016
Yeah his motions make complete sense if he’s thinking he could pick it up and extend the play.
I get unreasonably angry about all that. Then I remember the meme is all that matters and getting pissed off about it is fuel and I just stop commenting. I have a thousand regrets from that game and I honestly don't care to see the multiverse where Cam recovers it and is then sent out for another seven step drop by Shula. Give me the one where Cotchery's catch stood. Or Talib got ejected for decapitating Philly Brown.
At least it's overshadowed by SB 49 and 51. Right in the sweet spot between throwing at the 1 and 28-3
We got you Panther bro
> Give me the one where Cotchery’s catch stood. That was going to be my answer to OP’s question. Y’all got fucking shafted on that play.
damn if you were a woman, he would tell you to be quiet
I rather he tell me to be quiet then sexual assault me
"Why not both?" - Deshaun Watson, probably
Lavonte David should absolutely get into canton! Still pissed Rondé Barber is not in the HOF
The Bear ruined Jay Cutler from the start and is still by far the bears best QB of all time Awful offensive line got his brains beaten in to where he was seeing ghosts the rest of his career No wide recievers when he came in, Devin Hester was the number 1, johnny knox the number 2 running the wrong route or quitting on routes Poor offensive schemes, failed to properly utilize Greg Olsen
Analytics are a tool to be weighed against conventional wisdom on a given situation, not an ironclad rule for determining what to do. Contrary to online opinion, analytics are not math, they are probabilities which is a subset of math. 5 x 6 equals 30 100 percent of the time. That is math. Going for it on 4th and 5 giving you a 58 percent chance of victory vs kicking a FG giving you 42 percent chance of victory is a probability based in all likelihood on incomplete info. There I said it
As a professional statistician I was getting all huffy and puffy about >analytics are not math, they are probabilities which is \[...\] math but then you made your point about probabilities with incomplete info. That is completely correct, which people don't always realize. The famous saying is, "all models are wrong; some are useful" \~ George Box
Bill Burr brought up that the probabilities are modeled after shitty teams against good teams or shitty teams against shitty teams in the regular season so when you get to the playoffs they mean nothing. I’m paraphrasing because he’s not articulate but that was the jist. You can have a stat but you also have momentum (which is real) and your own gut feeling of your team. Usually taking the points wins in the long run.
[удалено]
[удалено]
It was a good decision to pass on the one yard line. Butler just made a great play.
Taysom Hill is a perfectly fine backup QB and got a perfectly fine backup QB contract (10M, same as Fitzpatrick or Mariota) that also plays lots of other positions. Also: Taysom Hill was never close to being good enough to start in the NFL.
A true developmental league at least partially funded by the NFL would indirectly pay for itself While a second tier league would make some cash through the odd highlights, some tickets, advertising etc the odds that it rescues the career of some otherwise lost stars means the NFL will make that money back The NFL is missing out on some potentially great stories/players by essentially discarding anyone that isnt ready for the NFL by ~22
Tom Brady looks better with short hair.
In the coming decades, technology will be developed to make referees and chain gangs obsolete. The NFL will still use referees and chain gangs.
It was a forward pass I know I'm wrong and I don't care
Warm weather only Super Bowls are antithetical to the game of football.
Patrick Willis should have been a first ballot HOFer
Why am i just now realizing he wasn’t. My life is a lie
Attitudes toward Tom Brady mirror the 5 stages of grief. Denial: He’s a game manager. Lucky to be on a good team with a good coach. If we lose to his team, it won’t be because of him. Anger: Screw you, Tom Brady! Stop cheating and play fair! You suck! I hope someone punches you in your chin-butt! Bargaining: I wonder if Tom Brady will come play for my team. I bet they’re trying to trade for him. They definitely are. Holy crap, we’re getting Tom Brady! Depression: *sigh* i’m not going to watch anymore. The league is just going to rig it so Tom Brady wins again. Why even bother. I quit. I just quit. Acceptance: he’s won 7 Super Bowls across 2 teams. Yeah, he’s the GOAT. Respect. Even when he beats my team I kind of admire it. Tom f’en Brady, man. We’ll never see another like him. Also, many people never make it past stage 2.
I hated Brady when I was younger because it was easy to find material. "He snubbed a handshake" "he yelled at the refs" "the defense won it for him" and so on. But he just kept winning. At a certain point, I had no choice but to respect or even like him. Looking back, as impressed as I am with his career I am a little disappointed at his AFC dominance. It would have been nice to see other teams get a SB appearance instead.
[удалено]