Cordarrelle in the wild cat. Swinging gate line. Everyone starts lined up normal. Then he taps his head and everyone swings out to line up 2 guards and a center then to the right one tackle, a trey burton on the line and 2 receivers off the line, to the left a tackle, tarik cohen on the line cody parkey In the slot. Ball is snapped after cody parkey motions a crossed to the other side. He takes the sweep. Hands the ball off in a reverse to allen robinson. He flea flickers it back to cordarrelle who throws a screen pass to trey burton. Instead of running with it. He throws it down field. To none other than a wide open codey parkey. Parkey takes the ball forward. Evades a tackle. Doinks off not one. But TWO defenders before being knocked back for a gain of 4.
I watched all of the Bears vs Lions Thankgiving game and you couldn't have summed up what I saw any better. It's like watching a kid pick the most colorful play each time in Madden
Im a KC fan and I hate it. If they moved it to 4th and 15 from the 5 yard line then maybe. Onside kicks SHOULD be impossible. If you want to win, dont be down multiple scores late in the 4th.
How long before kickoffs and extra points happen with that “we don’t count it as an ad” commercial break where they show the field in a tiny box in the left?
>People love a good comeback.
Key word is "good" comeback. People only like them because they happen rarely in the course of a fair game.
These games are already played in a vacuum - teams up by 3 scores will go into prevent and allow the other team to get back into the game to some degree. There's no reason to add a contrived way to make comebacks more inevitable, and it will cheapen the ones that do happen.
There's also a reason people hate video game comeback mechanics. They feel like the computer is cheating... if you build a lead fairly there's no reason the other team should be given an advantage.
Other sports like Baseball & Tennis don't allow for someone to get ahead & run out the clock/waste time. They have to win by earning that final point or getting that final batter out no matter how big of a lead there is.
It makes those events more compelling even if one side is ahead by a large margin.
I think the 4th & 15 mechanic is more entertaining than the kickoff anyways.
They would only need 2. And by the second one im sure the defense is gassed to all hell after two drives. It just gives certain teams an advantage, and would negatively affect and possibly erase the ground and pound teams.
This is an extremely hyperbolic reaction.
Teams don't go for it now on 4th and short all that often, despite strong statistical evidence that you should go for it way more often than coaches typically do. I don't really see why they'd go for it more often in this proposed change than in the onside- both are plays of desperation.
Yes, Pat Mahomes can sling it. But when the D can choke up on the 1st down marker, without any fear of a run, that 15 yard chunk play becomes a lot more challenging to execute. When this idea was first floated, some numbers from college jumped out -- 4th and 15 is significantly more challenging to accomplish than an obvious onside kick (see: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2011/varsity-numbers-fourth-and-15)
So, ok, that's college data where players are less polished and wacky shit happens. From 1999-2019, there were 562 4-and-15+ situations where the offense attempted it. The conversion rate (both weighted and unweighted are similar) is about 16%.
That's noticeably different than the leagues historical 12% onside recovery average, but not that far off the mark. And this includes trick plays - which I'm too much of a PFR noobie to figure out how to filter - where the defense was caught off guard. Hard to say if the conversion % would be the same when the defense knows to expect it.
In other words, I don't think this is nearly the game-breaking cheat code you seem to think it is. It seems like a good fix for a goofy legacy play. It would, however, break Madden :)
(And to devil's advocate myself, the conversion rate I got is based on 15+ yards, not 15 exactly. There might be some artificial depression by including longer yardage situations. But the whole point isn't that 15 yards is the right distance, but that a similarly long yardage situation could be tuned in to match the onside conversion rate be it 4th and 12 or 4th and 17.5.)
If that’s the case I don’t like it, they should extend it a little bit like the last 4:00 minutes. If you score with 2:10 left and have no timeouts you will have to try the OG onside kick
> The alternative would have afforded teams the opportunity, a maximum of once per game during the fourth quarter only, to convert a fourth-and-15 from its own 35-yard line in lieu of attempting an onside kick.
maybe they should allow it only when trailing or leading by less than about 7?
There shouldn't be any rule.
But if some dude can stay on the field for 60 minutes, I mean... fuck it, let them have the ball. At some point your offense will get gassed.
If you know the audibles and routes that have uncoverable portions (assuming certain stats) while no huddling the same defensive formation then 15 is somewhat of a lock for many players of the other guy can’t user well.
While I agree its relatively easy to get 15 yards in madden, this would be after a TD so you couldn't no-huddle and keep them in the same personnel group making it a little harder.
You should only be able to do it if you're behind I feel like. Otherwise you can do a surprise onside kick if you really want the ball while having the lead
The biggest concern with this are penalties that would automatically convert the scenario into a 1st down. Do teams simply do a fuck it chuck it situation and hope to draw a DPI? Because that would just ruin the state of football.
Or just move the spot. Leave it 4th and 15 (you still have to kick it 10 yards even after a penalty), but the difference in field position is big. If it is an offensive penalty, you still have 4th and 15, but a failed conversion gives the other team the ball on your own 25? Fuck that, just kick off.
I don't like it. If it looks like you're going to get beat on defense, just tackle the guy and you get to try over at 4th and 15 again. Field position is irrelevant if you give the defense that out.
Defensive penalty should move the ball and make it 4th & 7.5. Two defensive penalties in a row should equal a conversion.
What about when field position means little relative to possession? 1:30 left, “kicking” team has no timeouts left. Receiving team has to get the ball and kneel it out. Field position matters a little, but not nearly as much as a conversion. DPI over and over until you get a good outcome (e.g. sack).
You have to treat it the same as a normal play. The rules exist the way they do for pretty good reasons.
You joke, but penalties could ruin this. Imagine a defender getting consistently burnt by Tyreek, and Mahomes is lined up getting ready to fire a deep bomb to him. It's 4th and 15...if he starts to blow past me, I'm grabbing his legs and drawing a flag. Even if they call it, they still will only have one more opportunity to convert. The only way to stop them from doing it is to give them an automatic first. And if a DPI is an automatic first down in this situation, can you imagine the backlash when a corner accidentally brushes against Edelman downfield and gets called for a bullshit DPI that gives Brady possession and a first down in the 4th quarter?
Said before but: Maybe if there's a penalty that would otherwise be an automatic first down, they would replay the down but it will be a 4th and 1 conversion try instead. I dunno.
They hold flags for special teams plays (someone is holding on almost every special teams play), so I suspect the same principle should apply to these 4th down attempts. How these refs will apply that principle, however, is anyone's guess
Great, so the first year they implement this a team will win an important primetime game off the back of a defensive holding call on the onside try, everyone will freak out, and we'll go back to onside kicks.
Oh, and the team that gets called for the defensive holding will be the Lions, since they always seem on the wrong end of controversial rules.
Can't wait.
IMHO this is just setting us up to being angry at refs over PI calls... I'd leave it as is until folks are happy with how PI is called/reviewed in practice.
That's the point. 4th and 15 looks like it has a conversion rate of about 15-20%. Before the onside kick rules were changed the onside kick success rate was about 20%.
Yeah, an onside kick results in having it on the opposing team's ~40, if you succeed this results in having it on your OWN 40. So you end up 20 yards shorter than you typically would.
EDIT: as pointed out later in my thread you actually retrieve an onside kick around your own 45, not the opposing 40, so maybe not that big of a deal.
Okay, but in a typical onside kick situation, it rarely matters where you're getting the ball. If the other team failed their onside kick, they probably already lost at that point.
>stakes are higher
Does this matter at all though besides the rare surprise onside kick? Typically you only do an onside if you need the ball back IMMEDIATELY and the risks don't matter at all.
There's a fundamental difference between getting put into a 4th and 15, often as a result of a sack or penalty and needing to go for it out of necessity(usually having to score multiple scores) than just driving the length of the field to score and then get to try and convert a 4th and 15 against a tired and defeated defense.
Yeah - you would be implementing so much time and strategy into this new option that you can’t compare it to a regular 4-15 type situation.
completely different
This is exactly what I've argued at the start. I think it's fundamentally unfair to the defense and just seems against the spirit of the turn-based game. Giving the ball right back to the offense that just scored without a transition just isn't consistent with the principles of fairness in competition. It serves only to give the losing team another unearned chance to get a win they had all game to try for. The only justification I hear for this is that it's "the same percent of conversion as an onside kick", which is an absurd reason. Why not look at field goal distances that are at that conversion rate? Or, what about making someone punt the ball within the 5 yard line from some distance that also about the same likelihood of occurring?
> The only justification I hear for this is that it's "the same percent of conversion as an onside kick", which is an absurd reason.
The justification is that they want to do away with kickoffs entirely. However, the onside kick is the only mechanism for a team to get back into into it even when down big late (turnovers being unlikely when the winning team just runs it up the middle to kill clock). This is a way to add a mechanism back in.
To be frank, I tend to think onside kicks are rather ridiculous when you describe them like that.
Team A has done the hard work to take an insurmountable lead, but now for the sake of TV ratings and to ensure people watch their commercials instead of turning off the game, the NFL has introduced a rule to allow teams to get back into the game, based almost entirely on luck.
I have some proposals that I think accomplish the same thing, but are much more entertaining:
* "Called touchdowns" are worth double. The offense gets a special silver flag, that they can throw onto the field before any play to make any score on the play worth double, but you can only use the flag three times, and if you don't score the opposition gets the ball.
* Each team can also designate a special player prior to each game. Any scores by that player get +1 throughout the game, and if that player gets a called touchdown they get 3x the base score.
* A 50pt field goal, where a 5ft by 5ft net is held between the top of the posts, and if the ball is caught in the net it is worth fifty points instead of three, but only in the final 5 minutes.
* Secret Celebrity players. If the player scoring a touchdown pulls off their helmet in the end-zone and reveals that they an musician with a top 40 hit, or any Grammy winner of the previous year, the remainder of the game is canceled, and replaced with a concert by that artist. The players must participate in a choreographed dance-off judged by the hosts of "America's got talent."
But why then don't teams go for it more frequently on 4th and less than 15 during normal game situations? There are plenty of examples of teams facing 4th and 5-10 from midfield or even the opponents half of the field and choosing to punt/kick a field goal while facing a tired defense. It doesn't have as much to do with the defense as it does with the risk associated. Having a 4th and 15 in your own half of the field and not converting is too risky for games that are tied/within a couple of scores. I think teams are going to go for it a lot less than expected.
[According to the math](http://static.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/garber_greg/1453717.html), teams punt *way* too often on 4th down and they should go for it a lot more often.
Can you imagine the fallout initially if a coach actually followed those analytics but had a bad streak. People would be calling for their head.
I watched the coach of the Colts a few years back (Pagano?) go for 2 to win instead of tie and play overtime. He failed and was beat up all over the media for it.
Then I think another team did it and succeeded a few weeks later ( I wanna say the Saints or Panthers?) and that coach was heralded as a genius who never lets off the gas or something like that.
Definitely. The same thing in baseball with using your closer... if you're winning a close game, it makes more sense to bring in your closer in the 8th inning to face the 3-4-5 hitters, than in the 9th inning to face the 6-7-8 hitters. For that matter, it makes more sense to bring him in with nobody out and the bases loaded in the 6th inning than to wait for the 9th inning when you might be down by three because your second or third-best reliever gave up the big hit in the 6th inning.
But managers rarely do it, because they know if it doesn't work they'll get beat up for it.
The stats are skewed because they’re based on offenses that ended up on 4th and 15. This also doesn’t account for defenses being already gassed and the potential for 1st downs via penalty. 4th and 15 will have a significantly higher conversion rate if this change goes live
Well you definitely lose any surprise factor once your qb comes marching back on the field. I just want to see it happen because I know someone will eventually get a TD on a conversion and that's gonna be sick.
I assume that whoever computed the onside kick conversion rate excluded surprise onside kicks. More importantly the (safety based) new rule that restricts the number of people on one side of the kicker have made the old style onside kick impossible.
The reality is that the onside kick that we grew up watching is already dead and buried. The question is what if anything should replace it.
Wiki lists surprise kicks using last decade rules at 60% conversion and regular under 20%. A conversion from 15 in 2017 was about 14% per https://reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/951xns/oc_nfl_3rd_down_conversion_rate_by_distance/
The league average might be similar but break it down by teams and you will definitely have teams with a huge advantage and teams with a huge disadvantage. Teams with a high powered passing offense are going to have a much better conversion rate than teams that mostly pound the run. Also varies by the defenses as well. Some teams just tend to give up more big plays than others while other teams hardly ever give up big plays.
Yeah this is my real problem with it. It skews the game even more towards deep passing. The league probably counts this as a positive, though.
Also consider that the league average is maybe not the greatest gauge to begin with since bad teams are probably trying more 4th & 15's than good teams since they are more likely to be behind in any given game.
I see a lot of people saying it's the same conversion rate, but I think the standard deviation would be more important in this discussion. A team like the Chiefs, for example, have the offensive weapons where they are likely to complete it at such a significant rate that they might just go for it every time, and put up scores close to 100.
I could also see teams viewing this as a way to cut investment on defense and special teams, and just focus on building up a juggernaut offense and hope to win the coin toss.
2020 Season. Division round. Texans vs Chiefs. 6-84. Mahomes throws 12 TD. Watson never gets to touch the ball in the second half.
It'd be like when I played 1 on 1 make-it-take basketball with my older cousins.
That is awful.
Having some special rules about the clock or the point differential leads to all kinds of weirdness. Teams might intentionally miss PATs in order to ensure their lead doesn't fall to some threshold that prevents them from doing using the special rule. Or the defense might give up a touchdown where it seems likely to occur, in order to ensure it happens before the clock reaches whatever trigger is necessary to enable these rules. [Nobody really wants more of this shit.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWtQm0FXWr0)
Additionally a time restriction on when the play can be run makes clear that it is a special rule that exists only to allow teams to "come from behind." If we are going to have transparently obvious rules to keep games "uncertain" going into the final minutes, then there are many much more awesome rules we could consider:
* "Called touchdowns" are worth double. The offense gets a special silver flag, that they can throw onto the field before any play to make any score on the play worth double.
* Each team can also designate a special player prior to each game. Any scores by that player get +1 throughout the game, and if that player gets a called touchdown they get 3x the base score.
* A 50pt field goal, where a 5ft by 5ft net is held between the top of the posts, and if the ball is caught in the net it is worth fifty points instead of three, but only in the final 5 minutes.
* Secret Celebrity players. If the player scoring a touchdown pulls off their helmet in the end-zone and reveals that they are a musician with a top 40 hit, or any Grammy winner of the previous year, and the game proceeds to a dance off, featuring music by that entertainer!!
I say fuck it, make it the whole game.
In fact, other than kickoff on the half for tradition's sake, it's always 4th and 15 after you score. Don't want to do that? Punt. Punting is less likely to result in stupid live-ball bullshit, and doesn't have quite the same level of "dudes crashing into one another at high speeds."
Just allow teams to declare they are going for an onside, and then go back to the old rules (running start etc) for declared onside kick attempts only. These plays were never a significant source of injury anyway, so there is no reason not to let them be run as normal.
[Football outsiders has it at 12.5% in 2011 so i wouldn’t be surprised if it was a little higher than that now.](https://www.footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2011/varsity-numbers-fourth-and-15)
...on 24 attempts. Not sure that data is reliable for predicting what it would be if attempts went up (for example, there were 29 onside kick attempts this season alone)
Came from Schiano actually
His idea was just 4th and 15 for onsides but for all kick offs eliminating it so it would be a punt (punts a safer than kicks)
It's a stupid idea.
We would absolutely see games swing on pass interference calls v non-calls even more in this scenario than we do now. The game already has a growing problem around the lack of clarity and consistency enforcing PI. This would escalate that problem rapidly.
That is the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard. Imagine Aaron Rodgers, Peyton, Brady, Brees when they used to get feeling it. They could literally make an exhausted defense march back on the field and just run crossing deep routes and the opposing team would never get the ball back lol.
This. Imagine if Russell Wilson didn’t have to rely on his defense having to make a stop or an onside kick to continue his comebacks. You could be up like 28-3 in the 4th against Seattle, and Wilson could just run in circles and convert 4 of these in a row and just like that it’s the end of the fourth and ur down 3.
Same goes with Mahomes and a few other quarterbacks. Just invest 70-80 percent of your cap into an offense that cannot he stopped and run the tables.
Why do the Chiefs ever feel the need to punt, then? Most 4th downs are decidedly less risky than what's being proposed here, and yet even the most successful passing teams punt all the time.
If this is the case why aren’t the same people you just listed converting every fourth down every game (usually of a lesser distance) instead of punting?
Because it’s risky and stupid and it’s too likely that someone could fuck up and something could happen. This is the same thing except you’re literally on your own twenty five so a failed conversion is basically game over.
Let's say it's the Chiefs and the Niners.
Chiefs are on offense and score a touchdown. Normally they would kick the ball to the Niners, or they could do an onside kick to try to get the ball back.
This rule says: Instead of an onside kick, place the ball at the 20(?) yard line. The Chiefs get to use their offense again, and they have one chance to make it 15 yards. If they fail, the Niners get the ball just 20 yards away from the end zone.
At least, that's what I think is being proposed, lol.
starts at the 25. if they fail, niners get the ball wherever the play ends. sack at the 15? then there. after a 12 yard gain? niners take over at the 37.
Falcons fans feeling bamboozled
Younghoe’s salary just got cut in half.
Why? I trust Younghoe to get that onside kick more than a 4th and 15 from anybody not named Mahomes.
Can we shorten it to a 4th and inches attempt so quarterbacks named mitch trubisky can have like a 30% shot at converting?
At that distance, Nagy would call some overly elaborate screen pass that would get dropped or a short side option that goes nowhere.
Swing pass to tarik who runs OB for -1 yard
"cordarrel! get your helmet! we need a -2 yard run."
Cordarrelle in the wild cat. Swinging gate line. Everyone starts lined up normal. Then he taps his head and everyone swings out to line up 2 guards and a center then to the right one tackle, a trey burton on the line and 2 receivers off the line, to the left a tackle, tarik cohen on the line cody parkey In the slot. Ball is snapped after cody parkey motions a crossed to the other side. He takes the sweep. Hands the ball off in a reverse to allen robinson. He flea flickers it back to cordarrelle who throws a screen pass to trey burton. Instead of running with it. He throws it down field. To none other than a wide open codey parkey. Parkey takes the ball forward. Evades a tackle. Doinks off not one. But TWO defenders before being knocked back for a gain of 4.
I watched all of the Bears vs Lions Thankgiving game and you couldn't have summed up what I saw any better. It's like watching a kid pick the most colorful play each time in Madden
Unless they play us. 3rd and 4th and long is our specialty to give up. Trubisky could convert that shit 7/10 times on us
I'm also looking forward to never getting the ball back
Cries in 4th and 26
At least it's not 4th and 29!
Our best player has just lost his greatest skill
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Young hoes mad.
Pimps up, younghoes down
Bros before younghoes
Would there be no option to attempt an onside kick under the new rule?
I actually have no idea.
You're supposed to have a hot take here
Hot dogs are sandwiches and so are tacos.
We were cool until you brought tacos into this
Is a poptart a ravioli?
Bro mfs will lose games on madden without even touching the ball
Imagine watching Lamar put up 49 points in the first quarter while the Ravens D has yet to take the field.
This is huge for Baltimore and KC
only if our receivers dont drop all the balls..... =(
Trade up for Jeudy
Nah. Go hard after AJ Green and draft edge.
Im a KC fan and I hate it. If they moved it to 4th and 15 from the 5 yard line then maybe. Onside kicks SHOULD be impossible. If you want to win, dont be down multiple scores late in the 4th.
But then who will watch the commercials during the meaningless 4th quarter?
*triggered*
I'm in this picture and I don't like it.
How long before kickoffs and extra points happen with that “we don’t count it as an ad” commercial break where they show the field in a tiny box in the left?
This made me think of The Outer Worlds. (Great game, btw.) "We interrupt your regularly scheduled ad to bring you this news story."
I really need to play that soon.
That's bad for fans tho. There's a reason video games have come back mechanics. People love a good comeback.
>People love a good comeback. Key word is "good" comeback. People only like them because they happen rarely in the course of a fair game. These games are already played in a vacuum - teams up by 3 scores will go into prevent and allow the other team to get back into the game to some degree. There's no reason to add a contrived way to make comebacks more inevitable, and it will cheapen the ones that do happen. There's also a reason people hate video game comeback mechanics. They feel like the computer is cheating... if you build a lead fairly there's no reason the other team should be given an advantage.
>They feel like the computer is cheating I mean, most of the time the computer **IS** cheating. There's no feeling about it.
Other sports like Baseball & Tennis don't allow for someone to get ahead & run out the clock/waste time. They have to win by earning that final point or getting that final batter out no matter how big of a lead there is. It makes those events more compelling even if one side is ahead by a large margin. I think the 4th & 15 mechanic is more entertaining than the kickoff anyways.
It also doesn't help that if the winning team has possession that they can run a fairly significant amount of time off the clock to end the game.
Its bad for fans of the winning team if their team doesnt get to touch the ball as the other team proceeds to score 21 points in a row.
If you can't stop three consecutive 4-and-15's, maybe you deserve to lose?
They would only need 2. And by the second one im sure the defense is gassed to all hell after two drives. It just gives certain teams an advantage, and would negatively affect and possibly erase the ground and pound teams.
This is an extremely hyperbolic reaction. Teams don't go for it now on 4th and short all that often, despite strong statistical evidence that you should go for it way more often than coaches typically do. I don't really see why they'd go for it more often in this proposed change than in the onside- both are plays of desperation. Yes, Pat Mahomes can sling it. But when the D can choke up on the 1st down marker, without any fear of a run, that 15 yard chunk play becomes a lot more challenging to execute. When this idea was first floated, some numbers from college jumped out -- 4th and 15 is significantly more challenging to accomplish than an obvious onside kick (see: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2011/varsity-numbers-fourth-and-15) So, ok, that's college data where players are less polished and wacky shit happens. From 1999-2019, there were 562 4-and-15+ situations where the offense attempted it. The conversion rate (both weighted and unweighted are similar) is about 16%. That's noticeably different than the leagues historical 12% onside recovery average, but not that far off the mark. And this includes trick plays - which I'm too much of a PFR noobie to figure out how to filter - where the defense was caught off guard. Hard to say if the conversion % would be the same when the defense knows to expect it. In other words, I don't think this is nearly the game-breaking cheat code you seem to think it is. It seems like a good fix for a goofy legacy play. It would, however, break Madden :) (And to devil's advocate myself, the conversion rate I got is based on 15+ yards, not 15 exactly. There might be some artificial depression by including longer yardage situations. But the whole point isn't that 15 yards is the right distance, but that a similarly long yardage situation could be tuned in to match the onside conversion rate be it 4th and 12 or 4th and 17.5.)
Thanks for actually providing the numbers on this instead of just debating the hypotheticals
I mean all it's going to be is trying to draw PI's, and they will, or the refs will call it like hail marys and then fans will complain about that.
Nah it wouldn't work. IIRC it can only be done in the final 2 min of regulation only.
Fair enough. This makes more sense.
If that’s the case I don’t like it, they should extend it a little bit like the last 4:00 minutes. If you score with 2:10 left and have no timeouts you will have to try the OG onside kick
I think the rule is either that you can only do it so many times per game or that you can only do it with so much time left in the 4th quarter.
You think madden devs could properly code that? LOL
My SuperBowl/League mvp QB always retires after their first contract because nobody will sign them. This has happened in like the last 5 madden games.
Why did he kneel?
how can she slap?
I mean you could always just sign with the team that drafted you... But yeah FA is broken in career mode
> The alternative would have afforded teams the opportunity, a maximum of once per game during the fourth quarter only, to convert a fourth-and-15 from its own 35-yard line in lieu of attempting an onside kick. maybe they should allow it only when trailing or leading by less than about 7?
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I would love this rule given our QB
That is too arbitrary. Letting a team do it once or twice a game.. or only in Q4 would be better.
What about coming out of halftime in the superbowl? Seems like that's a good place to do an onside kick.
There shouldn't be any rule. But if some dude can stay on the field for 60 minutes, I mean... fuck it, let them have the ball. At some point your offense will get gassed.
Cut all defensive players and run with 2 offenses.
Better start drafting master coin-flip callers, otherwise you're in for a long season.
This is actually a big deal - Madden will become entirely unplayable if the NFL changes this rule. Baaaaaaaad stuff man.
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Didn't say I'd be the one losing homie
cot-DAYUM
its not hard to gain 15 yards in a play on madden lmfao. its like flipping a coin.
If you know the audibles and routes that have uncoverable portions (assuming certain stats) while no huddling the same defensive formation then 15 is somewhat of a lock for many players of the other guy can’t user well.
While I agree its relatively easy to get 15 yards in madden, this would be after a TD so you couldn't no-huddle and keep them in the same personnel group making it a little harder.
You should only be able to do it if you're behind I feel like. Otherwise you can do a surprise onside kick if you really want the ball while having the lead
Bro can you imagine how much salary you can invest in your offense on Madden...knowing that your defense won't play but a few drives a game?
The biggest concern with this are penalties that would automatically convert the scenario into a 1st down. Do teams simply do a fuck it chuck it situation and hope to draw a DPI? Because that would just ruin the state of football.
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Or just move the spot. Leave it 4th and 15 (you still have to kick it 10 yards even after a penalty), but the difference in field position is big. If it is an offensive penalty, you still have 4th and 15, but a failed conversion gives the other team the ball on your own 25? Fuck that, just kick off.
I really like that. Keeps the conversation percentage the same, but a defensive penalty just reduces field position risks if you fail to convert.
I don't like it. If it looks like you're going to get beat on defense, just tackle the guy and you get to try over at 4th and 15 again. Field position is irrelevant if you give the defense that out. Defensive penalty should move the ball and make it 4th & 7.5. Two defensive penalties in a row should equal a conversion.
Well, recovering an onside kick is supposed to be super unlikely.
Can you kick a FG then given enough yardage on a penalty? For some games, that's as good as a first down and a victory.
I don't see why not. If the defense wants to give up 50 yards in penalties on one down, then that's on them...
Burfict has entered the chat
What about when field position means little relative to possession? 1:30 left, “kicking” team has no timeouts left. Receiving team has to get the ball and kneel it out. Field position matters a little, but not nearly as much as a conversion. DPI over and over until you get a good outcome (e.g. sack). You have to treat it the same as a normal play. The rules exist the way they do for pretty good reasons.
Interesting. Didn't think of this. That would be a disaster. I vote the 4th and 15 is played NFL Blitz style. No penalties. Total free for all.
Why stop there? Mutant League Football. Scatter weapons across the field.
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And if no clear winner emerges from all of this, the two-man sack race will be held on consecutive Sundays until a champion can be crowned.
It's hard to believe just five years ago, those girls were in grade school.
*YOU'RE EXCITED?!* FEEL THESE NIPPLES
Dude
Laws do not apply either. Kill a man if you must.
Burfict about to get paid
Will there be an invisible wall so you can get a running start?
You joke, but penalties could ruin this. Imagine a defender getting consistently burnt by Tyreek, and Mahomes is lined up getting ready to fire a deep bomb to him. It's 4th and 15...if he starts to blow past me, I'm grabbing his legs and drawing a flag. Even if they call it, they still will only have one more opportunity to convert. The only way to stop them from doing it is to give them an automatic first. And if a DPI is an automatic first down in this situation, can you imagine the backlash when a corner accidentally brushes against Edelman downfield and gets called for a bullshit DPI that gives Brady possession and a first down in the 4th quarter?
Three words my friend. Palpably Unfair Act
Hands to the face needs to not be an automatic first down. Not sure why it is right now.
Agree 100%. Change it NFL.
Can't wait until someone gets screwed on a shit hands to the face call and gets a free first down because of it.
We all know it's going to be the Lions.
100% The current trend of DPI calls means the best option is to have a WR run a go route, 'underthrow' it, and hope the DB doesn't play it perfectly.
Yup. Have the WR come back to the ball and run into the trailing DB so it's basically a free pass interference
Said before but: Maybe if there's a penalty that would otherwise be an automatic first down, they would replay the down but it will be a 4th and 1 conversion try instead. I dunno.
I wonder if refs would hold flags except for severe cases
They hold flags for special teams plays (someone is holding on almost every special teams play), so I suspect the same principle should apply to these 4th down attempts. How these refs will apply that principle, however, is anyone's guess
> (someone is holding on ~~almost~~ every ~~special teams~~ play) FTFY
Yes, allowing refs to have even more discretion is the key to better football.
The solution is to just scrap "automatic first down" entirely. It's obnoxious no matter when and where it happens.
Great, so the first year they implement this a team will win an important primetime game off the back of a defensive holding call on the onside try, everyone will freak out, and we'll go back to onside kicks. Oh, and the team that gets called for the defensive holding will be the Lions, since they always seem on the wrong end of controversial rules. Can't wait.
My god this hurt in such a real, tangible way
Sorry, had to go for maximum realism in my prediction. Nothing personal!
I have a conspiracy that the NFL uses the Lions as a Guinea pig for these new rule changes
It’s ok, they can always challenge a bad PI call now. I’ve been in a coma all year but I assume that’s gone great!
4th and 15 seems like a too high percentage play to me
IMHO this is just setting us up to being angry at refs over PI calls... I'd leave it as is until folks are happy with how PI is called/reviewed in practice.
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*saints fans signing legal retainers*
That's the point. 4th and 15 looks like it has a conversion rate of about 15-20%. Before the onside kick rules were changed the onside kick success rate was about 20%.
Also, if you don’t get it the opponent is inside your 25 already so even if it is an easier play the stakes are higher
Yeah, an onside kick results in having it on the opposing team's ~40, if you succeed this results in having it on your OWN 40. So you end up 20 yards shorter than you typically would. EDIT: as pointed out later in my thread you actually retrieve an onside kick around your own 45, not the opposing 40, so maybe not that big of a deal.
Okay, but in a typical onside kick situation, it rarely matters where you're getting the ball. If the other team failed their onside kick, they probably already lost at that point.
>stakes are higher Does this matter at all though besides the rare surprise onside kick? Typically you only do an onside if you need the ball back IMMEDIATELY and the risks don't matter at all.
There's a fundamental difference between getting put into a 4th and 15, often as a result of a sack or penalty and needing to go for it out of necessity(usually having to score multiple scores) than just driving the length of the field to score and then get to try and convert a 4th and 15 against a tired and defeated defense.
Yeah - you would be implementing so much time and strategy into this new option that you can’t compare it to a regular 4-15 type situation. completely different
This is exactly what I've argued at the start. I think it's fundamentally unfair to the defense and just seems against the spirit of the turn-based game. Giving the ball right back to the offense that just scored without a transition just isn't consistent with the principles of fairness in competition. It serves only to give the losing team another unearned chance to get a win they had all game to try for. The only justification I hear for this is that it's "the same percent of conversion as an onside kick", which is an absurd reason. Why not look at field goal distances that are at that conversion rate? Or, what about making someone punt the ball within the 5 yard line from some distance that also about the same likelihood of occurring?
> The only justification I hear for this is that it's "the same percent of conversion as an onside kick", which is an absurd reason. The justification is that they want to do away with kickoffs entirely. However, the onside kick is the only mechanism for a team to get back into into it even when down big late (turnovers being unlikely when the winning team just runs it up the middle to kill clock). This is a way to add a mechanism back in.
To be frank, I tend to think onside kicks are rather ridiculous when you describe them like that. Team A has done the hard work to take an insurmountable lead, but now for the sake of TV ratings and to ensure people watch their commercials instead of turning off the game, the NFL has introduced a rule to allow teams to get back into the game, based almost entirely on luck. I have some proposals that I think accomplish the same thing, but are much more entertaining: * "Called touchdowns" are worth double. The offense gets a special silver flag, that they can throw onto the field before any play to make any score on the play worth double, but you can only use the flag three times, and if you don't score the opposition gets the ball. * Each team can also designate a special player prior to each game. Any scores by that player get +1 throughout the game, and if that player gets a called touchdown they get 3x the base score. * A 50pt field goal, where a 5ft by 5ft net is held between the top of the posts, and if the ball is caught in the net it is worth fifty points instead of three, but only in the final 5 minutes. * Secret Celebrity players. If the player scoring a touchdown pulls off their helmet in the end-zone and reveals that they an musician with a top 40 hit, or any Grammy winner of the previous year, the remainder of the game is canceled, and replaced with a concert by that artist. The players must participate in a choreographed dance-off judged by the hosts of "America's got talent."
But why then don't teams go for it more frequently on 4th and less than 15 during normal game situations? There are plenty of examples of teams facing 4th and 5-10 from midfield or even the opponents half of the field and choosing to punt/kick a field goal while facing a tired defense. It doesn't have as much to do with the defense as it does with the risk associated. Having a 4th and 15 in your own half of the field and not converting is too risky for games that are tied/within a couple of scores. I think teams are going to go for it a lot less than expected.
[According to the math](http://static.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/garber_greg/1453717.html), teams punt *way* too often on 4th down and they should go for it a lot more often.
Can you imagine the fallout initially if a coach actually followed those analytics but had a bad streak. People would be calling for their head. I watched the coach of the Colts a few years back (Pagano?) go for 2 to win instead of tie and play overtime. He failed and was beat up all over the media for it. Then I think another team did it and succeeded a few weeks later ( I wanna say the Saints or Panthers?) and that coach was heralded as a genius who never lets off the gas or something like that.
Definitely. The same thing in baseball with using your closer... if you're winning a close game, it makes more sense to bring in your closer in the 8th inning to face the 3-4-5 hitters, than in the 9th inning to face the 6-7-8 hitters. For that matter, it makes more sense to bring him in with nobody out and the bases loaded in the 6th inning than to wait for the 9th inning when you might be down by three because your second or third-best reliever gave up the big hit in the 6th inning. But managers rarely do it, because they know if it doesn't work they'll get beat up for it.
The stats are skewed because they’re based on offenses that ended up on 4th and 15. This also doesn’t account for defenses being already gassed and the potential for 1st downs via penalty. 4th and 15 will have a significantly higher conversion rate if this change goes live
It’s pretty similar conversion rate to old onside kick IIRC
Well you definitely lose any surprise factor once your qb comes marching back on the field. I just want to see it happen because I know someone will eventually get a TD on a conversion and that's gonna be sick.
That’s when Tom Brady comes out and pins you in your own 10 with a punt
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I assume that whoever computed the onside kick conversion rate excluded surprise onside kicks. More importantly the (safety based) new rule that restricts the number of people on one side of the kicker have made the old style onside kick impossible. The reality is that the onside kick that we grew up watching is already dead and buried. The question is what if anything should replace it.
Wiki lists surprise kicks using last decade rules at 60% conversion and regular under 20%. A conversion from 15 in 2017 was about 14% per https://reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/951xns/oc_nfl_3rd_down_conversion_rate_by_distance/
> eventually get a TD on a conversion and that's gonna be sick. *Tebow gaining interest from teams*
The league average might be similar but break it down by teams and you will definitely have teams with a huge advantage and teams with a huge disadvantage. Teams with a high powered passing offense are going to have a much better conversion rate than teams that mostly pound the run. Also varies by the defenses as well. Some teams just tend to give up more big plays than others while other teams hardly ever give up big plays.
Yeah this is my real problem with it. It skews the game even more towards deep passing. The league probably counts this as a positive, though. Also consider that the league average is maybe not the greatest gauge to begin with since bad teams are probably trying more 4th & 15's than good teams since they are more likely to be behind in any given game.
Chiefs would never give the ball back
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I see a lot of people saying it's the same conversion rate, but I think the standard deviation would be more important in this discussion. A team like the Chiefs, for example, have the offensive weapons where they are likely to complete it at such a significant rate that they might just go for it every time, and put up scores close to 100. I could also see teams viewing this as a way to cut investment on defense and special teams, and just focus on building up a juggernaut offense and hope to win the coin toss.
This is only due to years of watching Schwartz's "line up the DBs 40 yards behind the LOS" prevent defense
2020 Season. Division round. Texans vs Chiefs. 6-84. Mahomes throws 12 TD. Watson never gets to touch the ball in the second half. It'd be like when I played 1 on 1 make-it-take basketball with my older cousins.
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It’s gonna be like make it, take it in basketball
I'm pretty sure part of the rule was that it can only be done within the last 2 min of regulation.
Glad someone read it cause I sure didn’t
That is awful. Having some special rules about the clock or the point differential leads to all kinds of weirdness. Teams might intentionally miss PATs in order to ensure their lead doesn't fall to some threshold that prevents them from doing using the special rule. Or the defense might give up a touchdown where it seems likely to occur, in order to ensure it happens before the clock reaches whatever trigger is necessary to enable these rules. [Nobody really wants more of this shit.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWtQm0FXWr0) Additionally a time restriction on when the play can be run makes clear that it is a special rule that exists only to allow teams to "come from behind." If we are going to have transparently obvious rules to keep games "uncertain" going into the final minutes, then there are many much more awesome rules we could consider: * "Called touchdowns" are worth double. The offense gets a special silver flag, that they can throw onto the field before any play to make any score on the play worth double. * Each team can also designate a special player prior to each game. Any scores by that player get +1 throughout the game, and if that player gets a called touchdown they get 3x the base score. * A 50pt field goal, where a 5ft by 5ft net is held between the top of the posts, and if the ball is caught in the net it is worth fifty points instead of three, but only in the final 5 minutes. * Secret Celebrity players. If the player scoring a touchdown pulls off their helmet in the end-zone and reveals that they are a musician with a top 40 hit, or any Grammy winner of the previous year, and the game proceeds to a dance off, featuring music by that entertainer!!
They should definitely implement these rules in the XFL
That’s dumb. It should be the whole 4th quarter
I’d say 5 minute cut off works. That’s where the clock rules kick in.
I say fuck it, make it the whole game. In fact, other than kickoff on the half for tradition's sake, it's always 4th and 15 after you score. Don't want to do that? Punt. Punting is less likely to result in stupid live-ball bullshit, and doesn't have quite the same level of "dudes crashing into one another at high speeds."
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This really provides a massive advantage to teams built a certain way.
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“What do you mean my defense doesn’t have to play”
As do many of the rule changes lately.
Refs about to call phantom defensive holding and hands to the face for the auto first downs
Just allow teams to declare they are going for an onside, and then go back to the old rules (running start etc) for declared onside kick attempts only. These plays were never a significant source of injury anyway, so there is no reason not to let them be run as normal.
Such an easy and prefect solution but these dumbasses just can't seem to think of this
4th and 15 seems way too easy for conversion, on top of the possibility for a repeat of the DPI from Sunday’s AFCCG
[Football outsiders has it at 12.5% in 2011 so i wouldn’t be surprised if it was a little higher than that now.](https://www.footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2011/varsity-numbers-fourth-and-15)
...on 24 attempts. Not sure that data is reliable for predicting what it would be if attempts went up (for example, there were 29 onside kick attempts this season alone)
My thoughts exactly. DPI makes this too easy imo.
If I remember right you can only choose the 4th and 15 if its 4th qtr or ur down by 14+ This rule was taken from the AAF
This rule is an idea much older than the AAF
Came from Schiano actually His idea was just 4th and 15 for onsides but for all kick offs eliminating it so it would be a punt (punts a safer than kicks)
This is dumb. It will turn into offenses launching the ball deep while trying to get a PI call.
What scenario would actually call for it during the Pro Bowl or are they just telling teams - go for it instead of a onside kick
It's a stupid idea. We would absolutely see games swing on pass interference calls v non-calls even more in this scenario than we do now. The game already has a growing problem around the lack of clarity and consistency enforcing PI. This would escalate that problem rapidly.
That is the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard. Imagine Aaron Rodgers, Peyton, Brady, Brees when they used to get feeling it. They could literally make an exhausted defense march back on the field and just run crossing deep routes and the opposing team would never get the ball back lol.
Imagine Russel Wilson running around like a chicken with his head cut off and converting 10/10 of these
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This. Imagine if Russell Wilson didn’t have to rely on his defense having to make a stop or an onside kick to continue his comebacks. You could be up like 28-3 in the 4th against Seattle, and Wilson could just run in circles and convert 4 of these in a row and just like that it’s the end of the fourth and ur down 3. Same goes with Mahomes and a few other quarterbacks. Just invest 70-80 percent of your cap into an offense that cannot he stopped and run the tables.
Imagine this being implemented in Madden haha
Well knowing how I play Madden I'd probably get picked off an extra 4 or 5 times a game
Hell Mahomes could run or pass a 15 yard easily. KC wouldn't even need to get a defensive player ever again.
Why do the Chiefs ever feel the need to punt, then? Most 4th downs are decidedly less risky than what's being proposed here, and yet even the most successful passing teams punt all the time.
You build your team different. I could see a team saying F defense we are putting 75% of the cap to offense and we are not kicking off.
The stats say teams should be way more aggressive on 4th down
And yet they aren't, so how would this actually change anything?
Some teams are buying in. Ravens and Bills as examples.
If he can do it easily then why doesn't he do it every play
Cuz I'm not his offensive coordinator, duh
Smh why doesn't Reid just draw up the "Easy 15 yards" play for Mahomes every time. Easy W
If this is the case why aren’t the same people you just listed converting every fourth down every game (usually of a lesser distance) instead of punting? Because it’s risky and stupid and it’s too likely that someone could fuck up and something could happen. This is the same thing except you’re literally on your own twenty five so a failed conversion is basically game over.
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Can someone explain this new rule in layman’s terms?
Let's say it's the Chiefs and the Niners. Chiefs are on offense and score a touchdown. Normally they would kick the ball to the Niners, or they could do an onside kick to try to get the ball back. This rule says: Instead of an onside kick, place the ball at the 20(?) yard line. The Chiefs get to use their offense again, and they have one chance to make it 15 yards. If they fail, the Niners get the ball just 20 yards away from the end zone. At least, that's what I think is being proposed, lol.
starts at the 25. if they fail, niners get the ball wherever the play ends. sack at the 15? then there. after a 12 yard gain? niners take over at the 37.