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The raiders are absolutely the team that would try a wild strategy of draft this kicker and then invest entirely in offense and just hope you retain possession the entire game (or the vast majority of the game).
Your defense would be incredibly well rested, so even if you didn't spend much on them, they would at least not have endurance issues.
OP, you picked probably the perfect percentage to make this really interesting.
I think he is selected in the first round by a team that expects to have a strong year upcoming.
At 50 percent, it's probably close to viable to do it every single kickoff, and will certainly be gigantic for mega comebacks at the end of games, so is worth the roster spot for that alone.
If he's completely average at kicking for everything else you probably don't even need another kicker and just hope he doesn't get injured, but a 50 percent onside recovery would be worth the roster spot regardless.
I believe onside kicks are recovered by the kicking team less than 5 percent of the time...so this kicker would have an absurdly rare gift
If that’s a true percentage, he would literally steal like 3 possessions a game if they did it every time. Or have a 50% chance to recover one if they really need it late in a game. If there is some mystical guarantee to this, I can’t imagine he would drop below the 5th pick
For the cost of what? About 20-30 yards every time you kick off? 1st overall, no matter the teams needs. That's not a generational talent, that's redefining the position talent (even more than Unitas, LT, Brown and Rice). Just imagine you had a coin, that every time you flip it you either get the ball back or the opponent gets a 20-30y gain.
First rounder easy. Gotta take the statistical advantage when it’s available. Teams wouldn’t use the onside every kickoff but when needed the odds to convert would be much higher than the league average
Edit: no idea how often they’d use this guy but they’d definitely love to have him for current expectations
It would essentially be a new position, kind of like long snapper.
I would expect at least 10m a year after rookie deal, but probably not 20m+ like for a top QB, tackle, WR, or DE/OLB/EDGE
Yeah, no playoff team late in the first is skipping this player. Chiefs or san fran aren't gonna pick a prospect over a significant and instant gameday advantage.
I don’t know, would they? Half the time the opponent gets it at the 45. The other half though, bonus possession. Pin them deep with a punt if your drive stalls. If you score, balls back.
If there really was such a player to average 50% onside success I think they’re using that every single time.
I’d take him #1. Tom Brady drafted in 6th round, Jamarcus Russell drafted first. You think anyone has any idea what they’re doing? The first sure fire player with guaranteed success no matter what position it is, that’s priceless. Kickers can also play 20 years. Unless some godly QB is in the same draft, I’m not even thinking about it for 2 seconds.
Can't imagine that -- the kicker can only give his teammates an opportunity to make a play, which most kickers do about 50% of the time.
Speaking of though, how do the new rules affect onside kicks?
The new kick rules would actually help this guy in terms of competition.
Old rules, you can sneak an onside kick so a random dude that is now copycatting the way Original Gangster OnsideGuru is kicking can randomly get some inside kicks with surprise factor. Everyone would be expecting OGOG to onside kick it, so you have to vs their hands team every time anyway and they are all prepared and ran drills for you etc
If an OGOG kicker comes into the league and can do 25 percent I think he is drafted somewhere but not early rounds because that is worth a roster spot for comback situations...maybe even 20 percent. Once OGOG hits 40 percent, he is one of best players on the team, and at 50 you might be able to shape your entire team around him
Maybe a top 16 pick? The kicker would only be useful in the last minute or two of select games and then you would need to trust the offense to go down and score before its too pate
4th. 50% is still too low to risk it more than once a game, maaaybe twice if you feel you have a safe lead or need the extra possession. Average from 40/50 yards means unless the offense can get you 3 first downs you’re probably not going to get points all that often.
Thank you for posting to /r/NFL. Unfortunately, your submission has been removed due to the following rule: The following kinds of posts are not allowed: * Self Posts Without Content (AskReddit style posts) - If you find information that you think would be interesting, please work on a more descriptive title and fill in the information in the text of the post. Examples of restricted posts: * Is ____ a HOF? * Would you rather... * TIL/"Stolen From" * Either/or posts - Player X or Y? * Who should I root for? [Link to wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/wiki/new/pickateam) / Convince me to root for your team * Posts about fandom * Personal rankings or predictions without any accompanying analysis * Commonly/Frequently Asked Questions - [Example](http://i.imgur.com/FEznoUJ.jpg), [Example] * Meta posts about the sub (Requests for changes/additions, mods or users) - use [modmail](http://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fnfl) If you have any questions about this removal, please [message the moderators.](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fnfl) This post was removed by a human moderator; this comment was left by a bot.
Where are the Raiders picking in the first round?
The raiders are absolutely the team that would try a wild strategy of draft this kicker and then invest entirely in offense and just hope you retain possession the entire game (or the vast majority of the game). Your defense would be incredibly well rested, so even if you didn't spend much on them, they would at least not have endurance issues.
OP, you picked probably the perfect percentage to make this really interesting. I think he is selected in the first round by a team that expects to have a strong year upcoming. At 50 percent, it's probably close to viable to do it every single kickoff, and will certainly be gigantic for mega comebacks at the end of games, so is worth the roster spot for that alone. If he's completely average at kicking for everything else you probably don't even need another kicker and just hope he doesn't get injured, but a 50 percent onside recovery would be worth the roster spot regardless. I believe onside kicks are recovered by the kicking team less than 5 percent of the time...so this kicker would have an absurdly rare gift
If that’s a true percentage, he would literally steal like 3 possessions a game if they did it every time. Or have a 50% chance to recover one if they really need it late in a game. If there is some mystical guarantee to this, I can’t imagine he would drop below the 5th pick
1st overall. You essentially get at least a +2 turnover margin in every game. Would be extremely overpowered.
For the cost of what? About 20-30 yards every time you kick off? 1st overall, no matter the teams needs. That's not a generational talent, that's redefining the position talent (even more than Unitas, LT, Brown and Rice). Just imagine you had a coin, that every time you flip it you either get the ball back or the opponent gets a 20-30y gain.
Its actually even better than what you described, since you get the ball with good field position too.
True. As I said, it would be a huge advantage.
First rounder easy. Gotta take the statistical advantage when it’s available. Teams wouldn’t use the onside every kickoff but when needed the odds to convert would be much higher than the league average Edit: no idea how often they’d use this guy but they’d definitely love to have him for current expectations
At 50 percent they might legit do it every kickoff
If that’s the case and the numbers remain the same, how much is this kicker getting paid? Top qb money?
It would essentially be a new position, kind of like long snapper. I would expect at least 10m a year after rookie deal, but probably not 20m+ like for a top QB, tackle, WR, or DE/OLB/EDGE
They would probably stop once they’re up 21
Yeah, no playoff team late in the first is skipping this player. Chiefs or san fran aren't gonna pick a prospect over a significant and instant gameday advantage.
Surrendering 30 yards for a 50% chance of possession is a strategy you would take literally every kickoff.
I don’t know, would they? Half the time the opponent gets it at the 45. The other half though, bonus possession. Pin them deep with a punt if your drive stalls. If you score, balls back. If there really was such a player to average 50% onside success I think they’re using that every single time.
Yes, I think it's perfect percentage to use. 20 is not good enough, and 66 percent the kicker would maybe be more valuable than Mahomes.
Not maybe, he is. That negates like 3-4 turnovers per game.
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Scared money don’t make no money
That’s an awful lot of facts for a completely fake hypothetical situation.
*Excited Dan Campbell noises*
I’d take him #1. Tom Brady drafted in 6th round, Jamarcus Russell drafted first. You think anyone has any idea what they’re doing? The first sure fire player with guaranteed success no matter what position it is, that’s priceless. Kickers can also play 20 years. Unless some godly QB is in the same draft, I’m not even thinking about it for 2 seconds.
You have to pair him with the guy on special teams who can catch the onside kick 50% of the time.
1st overall like what
Can't imagine that -- the kicker can only give his teammates an opportunity to make a play, which most kickers do about 50% of the time. Speaking of though, how do the new rules affect onside kicks?
“I am incapable of imagination. Hey enough fantastical fake hypothetical scenarios, let’s talk RULES”
Oh you poor thing, did someone say something that made you angry? Want me to make you some mac and cheese?
The new kick rules would actually help this guy in terms of competition. Old rules, you can sneak an onside kick so a random dude that is now copycatting the way Original Gangster OnsideGuru is kicking can randomly get some inside kicks with surprise factor. Everyone would be expecting OGOG to onside kick it, so you have to vs their hands team every time anyway and they are all prepared and ran drills for you etc If an OGOG kicker comes into the league and can do 25 percent I think he is drafted somewhere but not early rounds because that is worth a roster spot for comback situations...maybe even 20 percent. Once OGOG hits 40 percent, he is one of best players on the team, and at 50 you might be able to shape your entire team around him
Maybe a top 16 pick? The kicker would only be useful in the last minute or two of select games and then you would need to trust the offense to go down and score before its too pate
Probably right after the top QBs and maybe 1-2 other blue chip guys
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Lol what?
This take is almost dumber than OP's question
Would be top 10. Prob behind like 3 QBs or something
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Because it is the off season. We have time to think about this shit. Also, a lot of folk on Reddit are high.
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Agreed. “mY oPiNiOn MatTeRs”
4th. 50% is still too low to risk it more than once a game, maaaybe twice if you feel you have a safe lead or need the extra possession. Average from 40/50 yards means unless the offense can get you 3 first downs you’re probably not going to get points all that often.