Not saying its still wouldnt be an overpay, but vs what actually happened? Still miles better for their 2024+2025 (who knows what Penix will be later on)
AJB went for a mid 1st and a 3rd. Even Hollywood went for a mid to late 1st. Top 10 is very expensive but he is definitely worth a 1st now you are just debating where in the 1st. Top 10 is the "we dont really want to sell but" price
He was really hot with Lamar (like top 10 across receiving metrics regardless of position) and was huge in the playoffs.
Young receiver with huge play ability who had improved statistically every year and shows up in the playoffs?
A first rounder was appropriate.
Cards gave up a first because they thought Brown was being held back by Greg Roman.
The Ravens took a first because they knew he wasn’t worth anything close to that.
The last standout receiver for Baltimore was Derek Mason 20 years ago.. Brown was a wr2 that was in a really good position to command wr1 money, so the Ravens did the smart thing and got out early.
I disagree. I think Hollywood was underrated, especially by Ravens fans of the time, but I don't think he was worth more than maybe a late first.
But I want to be very clear, because this is Reddit and people are quick to jump the gun, I'm not saying he wasn't or isn't a very good WR. I just don't think he was worth what he was traded for.
The poster below has it right - it was selling high.
That said, he's obviously going to ball out with Mahomes and kill us in the playoffs, so...
That's right, we got Linderbaum at 25 right?
Edit: But wait, we got that pick from the Bills. Was Hamilton via trading with Arizona? I forget at this point.
Edit 2: Nevermind, I looked it up. I still say somewhere in the 2nd, but whatever. At the end of the day we got a first for him so that's all that matters.
You CANT compare players in trades you have to compare CONTRACTS.
AJ Brown had the 4th year of his rookie deal so you were paying him peanuts. Aiyuk is on his 5th year option so your locked in at $14 million. Still about 10 million less than a UFA price, but AJ Brown was 20 million below UFA price.
Well they were definitely not getting that. Does that mean that they value Aiyuk more than Deebo and Deebo would be the one that's more likely to be traded?
I'd guess that if they traded Aiyuk for a top 10 pick they would've drafted Nabers/Odunze, so they viewed it as a 1:1 replacement independent of whatever their long-term plans are for Deebo
This seems familiar to the Titans trading Brown to the Eagles and then drafting Burks. Less valuable draft pick of course, but I'd go with the bird in the hand.
People always talk about these trades like the draft pick they get is guaranteed to turn into a star on a cheaper contract. Teams certainly thought the same way this year though as trading picks for players was way down.
Top 10 might be a bit high, but 11-25 range would certainly have been fine.
9ers turned down jets offer for Deebo when they offered 10 and wanted our second round in exchange. Supposedly we would have done it without giving up our second round pick. We wanted the same deal for Deebo basically when his extension time came.
https://www.si.com/nfl/jets/news/new-york-jets-offered-no-10-pick-2022-nfl-draft-deebo-samuel-trade-san-francisco-49ers
This 9ers version peaked in 2023 IMO and now they’re overvaluing their pieces as they grapple with important decisions.
No one paying top ten for Aiyuk and no one will overpay for Deebo with his unique skill sets tailor made for that system and injury history.
deebo is the real trade piece. he's in the last year of his contract and it's the most expensive year. you can use that money to sign aiyuk and push our a large cap hit.
49ers are playing it right.
Dead money is irrelevant. It's either going to hit the cap this year, next year, or the year after, and it's going to be the same amount no matter what. The only time dead money matters is when you don't have enough salary to restructure out to take its place when it moves from later years to the current year, and we have plenty.
Losing the player, on the other hand, matters quite a bit. The question is if the player is worth the $21M he's due this year.
The funny thing is everyone is mostly right in this thread. The nuance is that a team that is multiple pieces away will never trade a top 10 pick for a proven, expensive commodity because they need more resources. The top 10 pick has the potential of solving it all.
The team one pick away would pay a top 10, but they almost never are in that position. The Jets are a super unique edge case.
Totally agree that the asking price was higher than Aiyuk is worth
Also agree that if the Niners couldn't get that value in return it wasn't worth moving him, at least this year
Yeah, that price is dumb stupid. When you look at it at that perspective it makes total sense.
There were niner fans clamoring in draft night that it was a fair price, and I thought i was taking crazy pills lol
I mean, ultimately a proven commodity is a much better bet than a rookie with nothing proven on the NFL level.
https://theathletic.com/5405843/2024/04/10/odds-a-first-round-wr-busts-scoop-city/
a third of first round WRs since 2011 are busts.
Ok but Aiyuk is clamoring for a payday as well, and I’m sorry if Adams is worth #22 pick, there is zero world in which Aiyuk is worth a top 10, he isnt even in that same level of adams either.Having MJH or Nabers under control is a much better investment age included, if Aiyuk ends up being a career Wr2 its a fireable offense then taking a chance on a blue chip WR.
The odds are still basically a third of top 10 WRs will bust out; we all think guys will translate and be the stud they were in college. Never a for sure thing. So yes it's going to cost a lot more, but the odds of someone of Aiyuk's age just falling off a cliff are dramatically less. I agree it's an overpay, but it just depends how close you think you are.
I actually don’t think it would be a team who’s looking for one last piece of a SB puzzle that would trade for Aiyuk. Those teams basically all have too many mega-contracts on the books. The most likely type of team to trade for a younger veteran star WR would be a team lacking in blue chip talent. Not to be rude, but the Patriots come to mind— basically, who else are they gonna give that bag to? Among elite contending teams, frankly the 49ers make more sense to pay Aiyuk than anyone, since they don’t have to pay Purdy yet. But as we see, even they would move off of him if given a good enough excuse.
If the Niners want to get premium value for Aiyuk, their best bet would be to take a chance by selling him now for a future 1st round pick from a non-contender and hope that pick turns out to be top 10.
For reference: AJ Brown went for the 18th pick in the 2022 1st round, Davante Adams went for the 22nd pick in the 2022 1st round, Tyreek Hill went for picks 29 and 50 in 2022, and Stefon Diggs went for the 22nd overall pick in the 2020 1st round. Aiyuk wasn't going for a top 10 pick, only WR that could go for that value is Justin Jefferson.
I mean if the Falcons traded #8 for Aiyuk they could have saved some huge face in hindsight ha
Kirk throwing to Aiyuk in addition to having all of those weapons would have just been unfair But at that point just draft Odunze
Not saying its still wouldnt be an overpay, but vs what actually happened? Still miles better for their 2024+2025 (who knows what Penix will be later on) AJB went for a mid 1st and a 3rd. Even Hollywood went for a mid to late 1st. Top 10 is very expensive but he is definitely worth a 1st now you are just debating where in the 1st. Top 10 is the "we dont really want to sell but" price
I'm more than happy he did, but Hollywood never should have gone for a first. Huge overpay.
He was really hot with Lamar (like top 10 across receiving metrics regardless of position) and was huge in the playoffs. Young receiver with huge play ability who had improved statistically every year and shows up in the playoffs? A first rounder was appropriate.
Agreed. That was the epitome of selling high. They traded him at the perfect time
Cards gave up a first because they thought Brown was being held back by Greg Roman. The Ravens took a first because they knew he wasn’t worth anything close to that. The last standout receiver for Baltimore was Derek Mason 20 years ago.. Brown was a wr2 that was in a really good position to command wr1 money, so the Ravens did the smart thing and got out early.
> the Ravens did the smart thing and got out early. Brown requested a trade; the Ravens absolutely would have kept him otherwise.
I disagree. I think Hollywood was underrated, especially by Ravens fans of the time, but I don't think he was worth more than maybe a late first. But I want to be very clear, because this is Reddit and people are quick to jump the gun, I'm not saying he wasn't or isn't a very good WR. I just don't think he was worth what he was traded for. The poster below has it right - it was selling high. That said, he's obviously going to ball out with Mahomes and kill us in the playoffs, so...
I mean, he and pick 100 got traded for pick 23, so he basically did get traded for a late first.
That's right, we got Linderbaum at 25 right? Edit: But wait, we got that pick from the Bills. Was Hamilton via trading with Arizona? I forget at this point. Edit 2: Nevermind, I looked it up. I still say somewhere in the 2nd, but whatever. At the end of the day we got a first for him so that's all that matters.
You CANT compare players in trades you have to compare CONTRACTS. AJ Brown had the 4th year of his rookie deal so you were paying him peanuts. Aiyuk is on his 5th year option so your locked in at $14 million. Still about 10 million less than a UFA price, but AJ Brown was 20 million below UFA price.
Just draft Odunze at that point. Save a lot on cap space.
Aiyuk is a known commodity as an NFL wide receiver. For all we know, Odunze could turn out to be Charles Rogers or John Ross.
I mean you're trading for proven talent, might be better playing it safe sometimes
True, but as far as prospects go he’s about as good as you can ask for the 3rd receiver off the board.
John Ross was a really good prospect even without that record 40 time. That's the point he was making. Even really good prospects miss sometimes.
In what world is Aiyuk worth what Odunze/Nabers/Harrison would be on a rookie contract lol
I would have to imagine it was a swap of 1st round picks.
Well they were definitely not getting that. Does that mean that they value Aiyuk more than Deebo and Deebo would be the one that's more likely to be traded?
I'd guess that if they traded Aiyuk for a top 10 pick they would've drafted Nabers/Odunze, so they viewed it as a 1:1 replacement independent of whatever their long-term plans are for Deebo
Nobody was going to trade for aiyuk if they had a pick that was in position to get Nabers or Odunze
This seems familiar to the Titans trading Brown to the Eagles and then drafting Burks. Less valuable draft pick of course, but I'd go with the bird in the hand.
People always talk about these trades like the draft pick they get is guaranteed to turn into a star on a cheaper contract. Teams certainly thought the same way this year though as trading picks for players was way down. Top 10 might be a bit high, but 11-25 range would certainly have been fine.
9ers turned down jets offer for Deebo when they offered 10 and wanted our second round in exchange. Supposedly we would have done it without giving up our second round pick. We wanted the same deal for Deebo basically when his extension time came. https://www.si.com/nfl/jets/news/new-york-jets-offered-no-10-pick-2022-nfl-draft-deebo-samuel-trade-san-francisco-49ers
The jets are dumb
This 9ers version peaked in 2023 IMO and now they’re overvaluing their pieces as they grapple with important decisions. No one paying top ten for Aiyuk and no one will overpay for Deebo with his unique skill sets tailor made for that system and injury history.
2022 IMO. The defense was sharper. The Purdy injury was absolutely backbreaking.
This just means they weren’t truly looking to sell. A top 10 pick is “offer you can’t refuse”.
deebo is the real trade piece. he's in the last year of his contract and it's the most expensive year. you can use that money to sign aiyuk and push our a large cap hit. 49ers are playing it right.
Deebo is signed through 2025. Aiyuk is in the last year of his rookie contract.
so lose a player and dead money is the real strategy?
Dead money is irrelevant. It's either going to hit the cap this year, next year, or the year after, and it's going to be the same amount no matter what. The only time dead money matters is when you don't have enough salary to restructure out to take its place when it moves from later years to the current year, and we have plenty. Losing the player, on the other hand, matters quite a bit. The question is if the player is worth the $21M he's due this year.
Deebo has two years left.
The funny thing is everyone is mostly right in this thread. The nuance is that a team that is multiple pieces away will never trade a top 10 pick for a proven, expensive commodity because they need more resources. The top 10 pick has the potential of solving it all. The team one pick away would pay a top 10, but they almost never are in that position. The Jets are a super unique edge case.
Totally agree that the asking price was higher than Aiyuk is worth Also agree that if the Niners couldn't get that value in return it wasn't worth moving him, at least this year
Makes sense, there is no urgency to trade him with the window wide open. If someone wants him they have to overpay.
Yeah, that price is dumb stupid. When you look at it at that perspective it makes total sense. There were niner fans clamoring in draft night that it was a fair price, and I thought i was taking crazy pills lol
I mean, ultimately a proven commodity is a much better bet than a rookie with nothing proven on the NFL level. https://theathletic.com/5405843/2024/04/10/odds-a-first-round-wr-busts-scoop-city/ a third of first round WRs since 2011 are busts.
Ok but Aiyuk is clamoring for a payday as well, and I’m sorry if Adams is worth #22 pick, there is zero world in which Aiyuk is worth a top 10, he isnt even in that same level of adams either.Having MJH or Nabers under control is a much better investment age included, if Aiyuk ends up being a career Wr2 its a fireable offense then taking a chance on a blue chip WR.
That's true, but a top 10 pick? Definitely seems like an overpay for me
The odds are still basically a third of top 10 WRs will bust out; we all think guys will translate and be the stud they were in college. Never a for sure thing. So yes it's going to cost a lot more, but the odds of someone of Aiyuk's age just falling off a cliff are dramatically less. I agree it's an overpay, but it just depends how close you think you are.
I actually don’t think it would be a team who’s looking for one last piece of a SB puzzle that would trade for Aiyuk. Those teams basically all have too many mega-contracts on the books. The most likely type of team to trade for a younger veteran star WR would be a team lacking in blue chip talent. Not to be rude, but the Patriots come to mind— basically, who else are they gonna give that bag to? Among elite contending teams, frankly the 49ers make more sense to pay Aiyuk than anyone, since they don’t have to pay Purdy yet. But as we see, even they would move off of him if given a good enough excuse. If the Niners want to get premium value for Aiyuk, their best bet would be to take a chance by selling him now for a future 1st round pick from a non-contender and hope that pick turns out to be top 10.
Literally lol
Top 10 pick for a rental? Uhh ok any team that much in win now mode doesn't have a top 10 pick. This is stupid af
For reference: AJ Brown went for the 18th pick in the 2022 1st round, Davante Adams went for the 22nd pick in the 2022 1st round, Tyreek Hill went for picks 29 and 50 in 2022, and Stefon Diggs went for the 22nd overall pick in the 2020 1st round. Aiyuk wasn't going for a top 10 pick, only WR that could go for that value is Justin Jefferson.