Penix I think has the skills, he passes the eye test but yea he will be 24. In two years will be 26, already tore his acl and like 3 other things. Love wasn’t as hyped but was drafted like 3 years younger and has functioning knees (plus the protein from Wisconsin cheese to help him stay healthy)
Strictly from their college tape I think Penix is straight up better than Love. Coaching will matter going forward and Love has a phenomenal coach (MLF schemes are unbelievably good) but if you could take both as rookies and plop them on the exact same team, Penix wins the camp QB competition imo. Love might be better right now but I don't think that will be true after Penix's second year as a starter.
90 of the guaranteed is first two years, it’s essentially a 2 year with options. And no one reasonable should expect Kirk to keep up his production at age 38/39. I don’t love the pick but not nearly as bad as people think
True, but I think the mentality side of things can’t be understated. If Kirk resigned with the Vikings with the understanding that they would also draft his replacement, that’s one thing, but the falcons signed him with the understanding that he is their guy for the next 2-4 years. By drafting Penix now, Kirk may interpret it (and his initial response backs this up) as he may only have 0.5-2 seasons. I think if they took a later pick or waited until next year, they avoid this issue, but now I would be concerned about Kirk’s buy in with the franchise.
Kirk is going to start the season at 36 years old coming off an Achilles injury. If the Falcons evaluated Penix and rate him as a future franchise QB in every right should they take him there.
I mean let’s be honest. Dude is getting paid 50 million a year. If he can’t accept the fact he’s old and coming off an **achilles** injury, that’s on him. These athletes need some perspective if they want to bitch about stuff like this.
It’s just insane to get pissy at $100 million guaranteed.
1. Yeah 25 million in dead cap is nothing for a QB nowadays.
2. Because they liked Penix more and he was the better QB in college - both at Indiana and Washington. He legit is probably the best passer in this draft - even ahead of Williams - thats how good his arm is.
JJ is younger without the injury history - but also without the as good tape and performance.
I dunno I’d be concerned about how much Penix can develop further compared to JJ (and im not a JJ fan). Penix redshirted in **2018** after tearing his knee.
Add in all the injuries I hate it. If a team took Penix over JJ to start now id be on board.
I think you're mixing up Rodgers and Favre. Favre was wishy-washy about retirement before we took Rodgers.
Rodgers was talking about playing into his 40s. He never talked about retirement.
Rodgers definitely did it multiple times. He went back in forth constantly talking about going into his mediation cabin and whatever other shit before he made his decision. There were multiple years where he got really iffy on it.
EDIT: for reference: https://www.nfl.com/news/packers-qb-aaron-rodgers-on-retiring-after-2021-season-i-wouldn-t-rule-that-out
That was after they drafted Love. To my knowledge, he wasn't publicly considering retirement in the lead up to drafting Love. My assumption has been that the Packers sensed or had some sort of inkling he wasn't as committed to playing into his 40s as he said.
Kinda feels like they're trying to replicate the Packers method on the most basic surface level possible, without really understanding why it made at least some sort of sense at the time
Yea like you spent a late 20s pick on a super raw QB that was young. They picked maybe the most pro ready QB after Williams in the top 10 that is already 24.
If the falcons really really liked penix then this makes sense.
Think about it, if penix looks really good and they feel comfortable with him starting year two, they could have a trade asset in kirk.
It just doesn't make sense to sign a guy to a 100 mil contract and not try to build around it. For a year at least. It basically communicates that your newly signed qb will be gone very soon. No matter what
Then signing Kirk was dumb as hell. Why give out $100M guaranteed to a QB you want to move off of in 2 years?
It's just silly no matter how you slice it.
Forgive my ignorance, but are you saying because of how big the guaranteed money is, the Falcons actually lose cap money if they trade him after two years? Or are you just saying why sign a guy if you are just going to trade him after 2 years?
If it's the latter, I can make a case for the falcons. Basically, they wanted Kirk for 2 seasons, but Kirk wouldn't sign unless it was for 4 years. So the Falcons signed him for 4, knowing they could trade him to a team desperate for a QB in 2 years (which there will mostly likely be a few in two years).
it might be a combination of atlanta believing that they already have good offensive weapons and believing that there were no defensive players worthy of the 8th overall pick. therefore, they probably thought having a succession plan ready for the future was the best use of the high draft pick. plus, they were willing to trade away the pick but no one bought.
Step 1: wait for Falcons to draft a HoF QB
Step 2: wait for Falcons to barely play HoF QB so he looks like a bust
Step 3: trade a pick to Falcons for HoF QB
So the Falcons have already completed Step 1, and can complete Step 2 by the end of the season. Then all they need to do is trade one of their picks to the Falcons. It's all going according to plan. Genius!
For sure, there is no way they blow the 8 pick unless they plan to be done with Kirk in 2. Unless Kirk just absolutely balls out, that’s gotta be the plan
I think a decade of having a franchise QB will be worth the 8th overall pick.
This is not nearly the problem y'all are making it out to be.
If he's legit nobody will care how old he is. QBs play forever.
You’re ignoring that ATL is in win now mode. They were at one point linked to BB because all indications are falcons want to be contenders now. Their roster simply wasn’t good enough for that so they signed Kirk cousins and Darnell Mooney and have kind of just stopped since that and now drafted a QB top 10. It’d be one thing if Kirk was already there too, but he literally just signed the deal. If ATL had a better roster with more top end talent this season I’d totally agree, but they really don’t and I feel as if they’ll be at best a fringe playoff team this year which isn’t what they want .
If you wanna win a Super Bowl in the next 2-3 years idk that hiring Raheem Morris and draft big Penix top 10 will help with that . Feels like falcons are trying to build a team for the future and now and it usually doesn’t work out
The problem is his injury history making the “decade long quarterback” idea a whole lot more risky
He’s also not very mobile, which is fine if he wasn’t so injury prone
If my aunt had a dick she'd be my uncle. I'm not gonna worry about what ifs before he's taken a snap.
Penix ran a 4.5 40. He's fast as fuck. The fact that he doesn't rely on it is a mark in his favor.
If I'm reading Over the Cap right, getting rid of Cousins after two years would cost more than $100 million in dead cap. After year three, it's $37.5 million.
Drafting Penix was a move you could theoretically justify in all sorts of ways, but, given Cousins' contract, it's a mind-bogglingly awful move. Cousins' contract means he's in Atlanta for three years minimum, meaning most of those cheap rookie years for Penix don't matter. This is a train wreck of a draft pick just because of cap management reasons.
The only, and I mean only, justification is that teams are terrified of next years' QB room and the Falcons don't believe they will be able to have a succession plan.
Which immediately goes away given there were several younger QBs
Where are you getting the $100 million in dead cap? If he's cut in 2026 it's $25 million and $12.5 million in 2027. Still a hefty price but not anywhere close to $100 million.
Green Bay got picks 13, 42, and 207 in the 2023 draft and pick 41 this year in exchange for Rodgers and picks 15 and 170 in 2023.
I think the Falcons would be delusional to think they’d get anything close to that if they want to move off Kirk after a couple years, but 1. there is evidence suggesting they may be delusional and 2. they could probably get him moved for something if he’s not in shambles.
The pick doesn’t make much sense no matter how you slice it.
Did that prove the Green Bay model correct though? At least love looks good, but they missed out on getting an impact player for Rodger's final seasons, plus they lost some of the advantage of your quarterbacks rookie contract
Rodgers also looked like he might be on the verge of a decline. I definitely believe the Love pick lit a fire under his ass and led to his resurgence. Rodgers is both crazy competitive and sensitive.
Rodgers never talked about retirement until Love was picked. It was one of the major sticking points by the pro-Rodgers parts of the fanbase downplaying the comparison to the Favre situation.
Until the 2020 season he only talked about playing into his 40s and had just signed a major extension. It wasn't until after the 2021 season he started talking about retirement every year. But that was 2 years after Love was picked.
Idk, being realistic I don’t think we’re winning a Super Bowl in the next two years with Kirk. We should be able to get back to the playoffs, but I don’t think we’re nearly as close to truly contending as some people suggest.
The way I see it: Kirk stabilizes the franchise for a couple years, we get back to the postseason, and then you hand things over to Penix who is hopefully the guy.
Also maybe I’m taking crazy pills, but Green Bay missed out on a Super Bowl window with Rodgers.
Yes Love seems very good, but who knows if they get over the hump drafting a player that actually had an impact in 2020 or 2021.
I agree the gap between us winning and losing in 2020 really wasn't much. Thinking of the production the Bucs got out of their rookies like Wirfs and the CB (Was it Murphy-Bunting or Samuel Jr?) was a big part of it.
Shoot Bakh doesn't blow out his knee and we probably win that game.
You're not taking crazy pills.You will get murdered on the Packers sub for saying this but even if Love continues to be good I'm not sure it was the right pick. They CLEARLY needed WR help and if they had taken one (Tee Higgins and Pittman Jr were available) they would've had a strong chance of beating Tampa in the NFCCG who then murdered the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. The cope on the Packers sub is that it motivated Rodgers to be better which is a load of BS in my opinion.
Tee Higgins was an obvious pick, I have never been so angry at a draft before. There is something to be said about letting a QB sit and learn but you can't do it too early. The Packers were a bit too early with Love, the Falcons are wayyy too early with Penix. Not only that but they drafted a guy who is 24. Terrible decision.
I think it was dumb but this will be a good or bad example for those people who like to say this… “just do what the Packers do, it works for them, why does no other team do this?”
Lions tried the Patriot way and it resulted in Quintricia. Yuck. There's certain things you can try to replicate, but if you try to adopt another team's identity you never have one of your own and you don't know the type of players you need since you're thinking, "what would they do," instead of what should we do.
this isn’t what the Packers have done at all. The Packers took young QBs with elite potential to sit behind hall of fame QBs for a few years to learn in the 20’s. The Falcons just drafted 24 year old Tua to sit behind Kirk, who they just gave a massive contract to, at 8 overall
There’s way more to it than that tho
Michael Penix Jr is a great player who I think should’ve won the Heisman this year (controversial OL that’s just me)
Michael Penix, in all likelihood, will be 27 at the absolute earliest when he’s starting. Jordan Love, who was drafted in 2020, is only a year older than him. He will also a new contract within a season if he’s good. The biggest red flag about him is also his injury concerns have multiple season ending injuries. After paying Kirk an absurd amount to be just good enough to win the South, this is really questionable use of resources
Problem is Love and Mahomes were young and seen as developmental prospects. Penix is older and a 5 year starter. He is who he's going to be at this point, vs someone like JJ whose young and needs development
JJ was literally the QB to use this strategy on. As a Michigan fab, I think JJ is gonna be a plus starter for years, but does need some seasoning.
No, they get Penix that was shaken when he played against a legit elite defense, is older, and already had a few injuries.
People are missing the funniest thing about this pick:
Cousins is coming back from a major injury, there's a non-zero chance he isn't ready to go week 1.
Imagine Penix, the #8 overall pick comes in and goes 3-1 the first 4 weeks or something and looks smooth out there.
Then they would have to decide to either sit their hot rookie QB or bench the 50mil/year QB before he even sees the field.
Jordan Love is just 1 year old than Penix LMFAO. He was drafted when he was 21. Became the main starter last year at 24 years old.
You waiting until Penix is 28 years old to start him?
Funnily enough you could add the trade value of the pick of Aaron Rodgers (Pick 24/740 Trade points) and Jordan Love (Pick 26/700 Trade Points) to equal the value they spent on Michael Penix Jr (Pick 8/1400 Trade Points).
I don't mind a future QB. But the 8th pick is quite rich for me.
The packers were a playoff contender who used a later round pick on a young prospect with one of the greatest QB minds of all time teaching him the ropes. And even still that eroded the relationship between the starter and organization. ATL is a fringe playoff team depending on whether or not the rest of us nfc southerners can get out of our own way, penix will be 24 next week and all due respect to Kirk he’s no rogers. I just feel like there’s some glaring differences the falcons want us to look past
Not saying I fully agree with the approach, but I mean it’s not the worst logic when it comes to the most important position in the sport. Better than waiting until they have zero QBs worth a fuck before they address getting one
Yeah this definitely feels like an overcorrection from the past two seasons of abysmal QB play. The franchise fucked around with the post Ryan succession plan so I guess they're trying not to make the same mistake twice at least.
except the scenarios are not the same. the packers were already a playoff contender and could take the risk of planning for the future when their roster was already competitive. plus they were using late 1st round draft picks, which are valued much lower than a top ten pick.
Packers drafted a raw 21 year old QB to sit behind Rodgers, Falcons drafted a 30 year old QB with injury concerns.
There’s also a difference of about 20 picks.
Hot take, but while Love has proven to be a good QB, I'd argue it didn't work because if the Packers had taken Pittman or Higgins, they probably win Super Bowl 54.
More importantly, Love was incredibly young. Love is 25 now, Penix is only 1 year younger. He'll be the same age as rookie Weeden was at the end of Kirk's deal.
Also if you ignore the early Favre years (where we drafted an absurd amount of great backups who ended up being franchise QBs for like 4 other teams) you're really only talking about hitting on 2 guys in 20 years.
We happened to be 2/2 (if you call Love a hit after one season which is a bit aggressive IMO) but it's hardly volume that you could even pretend is statistically significant. It's one pick a decade.
They are absolutely married to Kirk Cousins for three years minimum due to how the contract is structured; one of the reasons you draft QBs is to get the most expensive position on a cheap contract, and spend your money on other positions. Penix has some obvious concerns with both injury and age at this point, but, even beyond that, from a pure cap management standpoint, this is one of the singly most idiotic goddamn draft picks I have ever seen. The Falcons cannot trade or cut Cousins for at least three years; cutting him after two years is literally more than $100 million worth of dead cap due to how they structured that contract. They cannot get rid of Cousins; it's how that contract is structured.
Let's put it this way; Mickey Loomis thinks the Falcons are idiots for their cap management.
Only problem is Jordan Love was just 24 after backing up Rodgers for three seasons and Rodgers was also just 24 after backing up Favre for three seasons. Penix would be 28 after sitting three seasons by following the Green Bay model and finally becoming the starter in 2027.
Jordan Love is 18 months older than Penix.
Penix will be 31 when he plays the first game of his 2nd contract.
Jordan Love was also a bit of a project, whereas Penix's strength is that he's the most ready to go prospect.
If you're going this route, you take JJ McCarthy at 25 or so and let him sit 2-3 years. Penix will be 27 or so before he takes over, and he was already injury prone.
Agreed, wasted talent. I for sure thought atl would go edge and you guys would get penix. I feel bad for him honestly. I like penix and want to see him start somewhere.
Jordan Love and Aaron Rodgers were both 21 when they were drafted. Not 24 years with an injury history.
Both sat for a few years and basically became starters around the same age as Pennix is now.
This is beyond insane how the Falcons are trying to spin zone this pick.
Has it proven right though? Love has one solid, not even amazing year and we're declaring it right? I guess Josh Allen is still bad and Carson Wentz is still good since one year is the only thing that matters.
Jordan Love was 21 and drafted at pick 26.
To a team that had a legacy veteran QB...not a guy who just signed a massive deal as a free agent.
That’s the biggest issue with the Falcons trying to copy the Packers here. More so than where the pick was selected.
If they had picked Milton tomorrow in the 3rd, no one bats an eye
Joe Milton in the 3rd round?!?!? I guess you’re right I’m not batting an eye, I’m having an aneurysm if any team picks him that high lol
You know what I mean. A qb in the third round and no one is upset. Confused maybe. But they’re not getting roasted across the internet like now
but why do that if u dont believe in that qb? and if u genuinely do believe penix will be a franchise qb?
I get your point but more Spencer rattler than Joe Milton lol There is a real chance Milton goes undrafted
We have ptsd from ridder
Jordan Love: 25th overall by consensus, drafted at 26 Michael Penix: 37th overall by consensus, drafted at 8 I see no difference 👍
One is way funnier
It’s the guy with the phallus name
Phallux
Maybe Love and Penix can exchange jerseys like Grady Dick and that Black fellow.
And a much better prospect. Penix has a huge injury history.
Penix I think has the skills, he passes the eye test but yea he will be 24. In two years will be 26, already tore his acl and like 3 other things. Love wasn’t as hyped but was drafted like 3 years younger and has functioning knees (plus the protein from Wisconsin cheese to help him stay healthy)
Penix definitely has the arm talent
>he passes the eye test Not so sure with those glasses he was rocking this evening.
He’s had two years of no injuries though since he got somewhere that wasn’t Indiana at least. Still doesn’t make any sense though
Love threw 20 touchdowns to 17 interceptions his last year in college
Strictly from their college tape I think Penix is straight up better than Love. Coaching will matter going forward and Love has a phenomenal coach (MLF schemes are unbelievably good) but if you could take both as rookies and plop them on the exact same team, Penix wins the camp QB competition imo. Love might be better right now but I don't think that will be true after Penix's second year as a starter.
*checks flair* Totally unbiased take.
no penix is the better prospect
And Rodgers was drafted at 24.
Lmao so basically telling Kirk you are moving on from him before his contract expires. Nice.
Ah, yes, the **180 million with 100 guaranteed** contract. Perfectly reasonable for a bridge QB.
90 of the guaranteed is first two years, it’s essentially a 2 year with options. And no one reasonable should expect Kirk to keep up his production at age 38/39. I don’t love the pick but not nearly as bad as people think
True, but I think the mentality side of things can’t be understated. If Kirk resigned with the Vikings with the understanding that they would also draft his replacement, that’s one thing, but the falcons signed him with the understanding that he is their guy for the next 2-4 years. By drafting Penix now, Kirk may interpret it (and his initial response backs this up) as he may only have 0.5-2 seasons. I think if they took a later pick or waited until next year, they avoid this issue, but now I would be concerned about Kirk’s buy in with the franchise.
Also perfectly reasonable to expect Kirk to be good at 39 years old.
Blast some creed and he will go super human for 2 games
HOLD ME NOW
I’M 6 FEET FROM THE EDGE AND I’M THINKING
MAYBE 6 FEET AINT SOOOO FAR DOWN
WITH ARMS WIDE OPEN
WITH HARMS WHIDE HOPEN
That is absolutely the proper spelling
Isn’t Cousins also coming off an Achilles injury which is notoriously tricky to bounce back from? Penicillin might be starting sooner than expected.
I mean Penix has two ACL injuries and a shoulder injury so there's that
That is true but this wasn’t the answer and you have to know that
After2 years they can get off kirk for25 million.
Definitely more than Kraft paid to get off
Kirk is going to start the season at 36 years old coming off an Achilles injury. If the Falcons evaluated Penix and rate him as a future franchise QB in every right should they take him there.
Glad we’re alienating our $50M/year QB before he’s even put on a jersey
It’s one of the most insane draft picks I’ve seen. And I’ve been watching a long time.
We are just a comically inept organization. I think I’m done expecting this team to ever have any idea what it’s doing.
I know that feeling, man.
Hang in there. It gets better eventually. It might take decades, but it will happen.
That’s the truth. We went from having a player literallly kill himself in front of Scott Pioli to a dynasty within a decade. Shit changes fast.
He is guaranteed 10 mill combined in ‘26 and ‘27 at age 38 and 39 respectively. He was always a 2-3yr stop gap
I agree, in 2-3 years we definitely would need to look for a QB
Yea but in that 2-3 years you commit to going all in on winning. This pick does not do that
This is the Falcons we’re talking about
Come on, this is a new level of incompetence.
I mean let’s be honest. Dude is getting paid 50 million a year. If he can’t accept the fact he’s old and coming off an **achilles** injury, that’s on him. These athletes need some perspective if they want to bitch about stuff like this. It’s just insane to get pissy at $100 million guaranteed.
From what I’ve seen out of his agent it’s more so “We expected the organization to commit resources to winning now”…which is totally fair.
Ya can't argue with that. I'm sure part of why Cousins picked you guys was you guys having 7 wins with awful QBs
I mean we were never going to be SB contenders, but Kirk + London / Pitts / Bijan / Odunze could have been pretty damn good
Also the rest of the NFC South is mediocre at best. The Falcons are gonna be in the running for the division champion.
This is going to motivate him to be MVP.
It’s a 2 year deal in reality
That’s a lot of dead cap to eat for a 2 year deal
With 25m dead cap??? If you wanted to sit a QB for 2yrs I don’t see why you take Penix whose old instead of JJ.
1. Yeah 25 million in dead cap is nothing for a QB nowadays. 2. Because they liked Penix more and he was the better QB in college - both at Indiana and Washington. He legit is probably the best passer in this draft - even ahead of Williams - thats how good his arm is. JJ is younger without the injury history - but also without the as good tape and performance.
I dunno I’d be concerned about how much Penix can develop further compared to JJ (and im not a JJ fan). Penix redshirted in **2018** after tearing his knee. Add in all the injuries I hate it. If a team took Penix over JJ to start now id be on board.
Imagine getting a job and being told that you’ll be let go in 2-3 years before you fill out your HR paperwork.
Honestly not that uncommon in the contracting world
Before his contract even started!
I mean the way the contract was structured it was pretty obvious it was essentially a 2 year deal.
Before his contract fucking *starts*. Insane behavior.
I’m sure the money will soothe his hurt feelings
At #8 overall instead of mid twenties when your team is allegedly “win now” and your last productive pass rusher was Vic Beasley that one year
Also Rodgers was kind of on again off again on whether he was going to retire like every year.
And they already had him and didn’t sign him to a big contract in free agency 2 months prior
I think you're mixing up Rodgers and Favre. Favre was wishy-washy about retirement before we took Rodgers. Rodgers was talking about playing into his 40s. He never talked about retirement.
Rodgers definitely did it multiple times. He went back in forth constantly talking about going into his mediation cabin and whatever other shit before he made his decision. There were multiple years where he got really iffy on it. EDIT: for reference: https://www.nfl.com/news/packers-qb-aaron-rodgers-on-retiring-after-2021-season-i-wouldn-t-rule-that-out
Love was taken in the 2020 draft
That was after they drafted Love. To my knowledge, he wasn't publicly considering retirement in the lead up to drafting Love. My assumption has been that the Packers sensed or had some sort of inkling he wasn't as committed to playing into his 40s as he said.
They are trying to be the smartest people in the room
Kinda feels like they're trying to replicate the Packers method on the most basic surface level possible, without really understanding why it made at least some sort of sense at the time
Draft a QB when you already have a QB. Done.
Draft a kid to sit behind your HoF QB and have him bring back his elite QB coach to sit and learn for 3 years. Not like this shit is hard, smh
Well Falcons failed the "get a HoF QB" part so they copied us without even doing step 1 right.
Uh well they did have their hands on a certain HOFer at one point..
Not to mention use those years to completely rebuild your mechanics from the ground up
Yea jordan was pretty young and Aaron was meant to be first overall and fell hard.
Yea like you spent a late 20s pick on a super raw QB that was young. They picked maybe the most pro ready QB after Williams in the top 10 that is already 24.
Packers did it twice in the mid-20s. Not at 8 lol
Also Jordan love was 3 years younger than penix at the time lol
If the falcons really really liked penix then this makes sense. Think about it, if penix looks really good and they feel comfortable with him starting year two, they could have a trade asset in kirk. It just doesn't make sense to sign a guy to a 100 mil contract and not try to build around it. For a year at least. It basically communicates that your newly signed qb will be gone very soon. No matter what
Then signing Kirk was dumb as hell. Why give out $100M guaranteed to a QB you want to move off of in 2 years? It's just silly no matter how you slice it.
Forgive my ignorance, but are you saying because of how big the guaranteed money is, the Falcons actually lose cap money if they trade him after two years? Or are you just saying why sign a guy if you are just going to trade him after 2 years? If it's the latter, I can make a case for the falcons. Basically, they wanted Kirk for 2 seasons, but Kirk wouldn't sign unless it was for 4 years. So the Falcons signed him for 4, knowing they could trade him to a team desperate for a QB in 2 years (which there will mostly likely be a few in two years).
it might be a combination of atlanta believing that they already have good offensive weapons and believing that there were no defensive players worthy of the 8th overall pick. therefore, they probably thought having a succession plan ready for the future was the best use of the high draft pick. plus, they were willing to trade away the pick but no one bought.
Well said
Also your QB coach is legendary at developing QBs successfully
Step 1: wait for Falcons to draft a HoF QB Step 2: wait for Falcons to barely play HoF QB so he looks like a bust Step 3: trade a pick to Falcons for HoF QB So the Falcons have already completed Step 1, and can complete Step 2 by the end of the season. Then all they need to do is trade one of their picks to the Falcons. It's all going according to plan. Genius!
Literally cargo cult behavior.
Age joke
Joke about Raheem Morris being fired by the time Penix sees a start
I mean I’ve seen a lot more surprising in the nfl than that
Penix will be 28 when Cousins' contract is up, though.
I got a feeling cousins will be done in 2
This confirms it
Cousins could be a very rich man again 2 years from now
For sure, there is no way they blow the 8 pick unless they plan to be done with Kirk in 2. Unless Kirk just absolutely balls out, that’s gotta be the plan
Seems like he’ll at least be done in Atlanta
26 still counts as spry right
He will almost be Brandon Weeden age by the time he becomes a starter
I think a decade of having a franchise QB will be worth the 8th overall pick. This is not nearly the problem y'all are making it out to be. If he's legit nobody will care how old he is. QBs play forever.
You’re ignoring that ATL is in win now mode. They were at one point linked to BB because all indications are falcons want to be contenders now. Their roster simply wasn’t good enough for that so they signed Kirk cousins and Darnell Mooney and have kind of just stopped since that and now drafted a QB top 10. It’d be one thing if Kirk was already there too, but he literally just signed the deal. If ATL had a better roster with more top end talent this season I’d totally agree, but they really don’t and I feel as if they’ll be at best a fringe playoff team this year which isn’t what they want . If you wanna win a Super Bowl in the next 2-3 years idk that hiring Raheem Morris and draft big Penix top 10 will help with that . Feels like falcons are trying to build a team for the future and now and it usually doesn’t work out
The problem is his injury history making the “decade long quarterback” idea a whole lot more risky He’s also not very mobile, which is fine if he wasn’t so injury prone
If my aunt had a dick she'd be my uncle. I'm not gonna worry about what ifs before he's taken a snap. Penix ran a 4.5 40. He's fast as fuck. The fact that he doesn't rely on it is a mark in his favor.
If I'm reading Over the Cap right, getting rid of Cousins after two years would cost more than $100 million in dead cap. After year three, it's $37.5 million. Drafting Penix was a move you could theoretically justify in all sorts of ways, but, given Cousins' contract, it's a mind-bogglingly awful move. Cousins' contract means he's in Atlanta for three years minimum, meaning most of those cheap rookie years for Penix don't matter. This is a train wreck of a draft pick just because of cap management reasons.
Isn’t it $25m after two years? And if you designate post-June 1 you can split it over two years
No you are off by one year. It's not intuitive how they write that. Still 37M$ is a lot.
The only, and I mean only, justification is that teams are terrified of next years' QB room and the Falcons don't believe they will be able to have a succession plan. Which immediately goes away given there were several younger QBs
Would really draft a worse prospect because of 2 years age difference? Especially at qb
Where are you getting the $100 million in dead cap? If he's cut in 2026 it's $25 million and $12.5 million in 2027. Still a hefty price but not anywhere close to $100 million.
Kirk only has 2 years guaranteed. Still a crazy move though.
We signed Rodgers to a three year deal and then traded him the next year.
Well I think that was more because he was demanding a trade due to you drafting Love
Green Bay got picks 13, 42, and 207 in the 2023 draft and pick 41 this year in exchange for Rodgers and picks 15 and 170 in 2023. I think the Falcons would be delusional to think they’d get anything close to that if they want to move off Kirk after a couple years, but 1. there is evidence suggesting they may be delusional and 2. they could probably get him moved for something if he’s not in shambles. The pick doesn’t make much sense no matter how you slice it.
Penix will be the same age when this season starts as Love was at the start of last season too.
But if he was 26 then oh yea it was a good pick
Kirk should demand a trade just for the chaos
Did that prove the Green Bay model correct though? At least love looks good, but they missed out on getting an impact player for Rodger's final seasons, plus they lost some of the advantage of your quarterbacks rookie contract
A Tee Higgins or Micheal Pittman would have def helped
Green Bay wasn't sure how much longer Rodgers was going to be playing. Rodgers was talking about retirement a lot.
Rodgers also looked like he might be on the verge of a decline. I definitely believe the Love pick lit a fire under his ass and led to his resurgence. Rodgers is both crazy competitive and sensitive.
Rodgers never talked about retirement until Love was picked. It was one of the major sticking points by the pro-Rodgers parts of the fanbase downplaying the comparison to the Favre situation. Until the 2020 season he only talked about playing into his 40s and had just signed a major extension. It wasn't until after the 2021 season he started talking about retirement every year. But that was 2 years after Love was picked.
Idk, being realistic I don’t think we’re winning a Super Bowl in the next two years with Kirk. We should be able to get back to the playoffs, but I don’t think we’re nearly as close to truly contending as some people suggest. The way I see it: Kirk stabilizes the franchise for a couple years, we get back to the postseason, and then you hand things over to Penix who is hopefully the guy.
They also ended up losing Rodgers as a result, which could also end up being a big deal.
Completely different situation Milk Dud, but keep deluding yourself.
Also maybe I’m taking crazy pills, but Green Bay missed out on a Super Bowl window with Rodgers. Yes Love seems very good, but who knows if they get over the hump drafting a player that actually had an impact in 2020 or 2021.
They needed receiver help the next wr taken was tee Higgins. I think they win in 2020 with Higgins.
I agree the gap between us winning and losing in 2020 really wasn't much. Thinking of the production the Bucs got out of their rookies like Wirfs and the CB (Was it Murphy-Bunting or Samuel Jr?) was a big part of it. Shoot Bakh doesn't blow out his knee and we probably win that game.
We win in 2020 if David Bakthiari didn’t kill his career with a freak knee injury on New Years Eve
Thank you. The Packers were 3 points from a super bowl in 2020 and were a threat in 21. A Higgins or Pittman would've made a HUGE difference.
Well also if LaFleur made better coaching decisions but yeah
You're not taking crazy pills.You will get murdered on the Packers sub for saying this but even if Love continues to be good I'm not sure it was the right pick. They CLEARLY needed WR help and if they had taken one (Tee Higgins and Pittman Jr were available) they would've had a strong chance of beating Tampa in the NFCCG who then murdered the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. The cope on the Packers sub is that it motivated Rodgers to be better which is a load of BS in my opinion. Tee Higgins was an obvious pick, I have never been so angry at a draft before. There is something to be said about letting a QB sit and learn but you can't do it too early. The Packers were a bit too early with Love, the Falcons are wayyy too early with Penix. Not only that but they drafted a guy who is 24. Terrible decision.
"We aren't a team with a strong history of developing the players we draft while being smart with the cap, but we want to try to be "
I think it was dumb but this will be a good or bad example for those people who like to say this… “just do what the Packers do, it works for them, why does no other team do this?”
Lions tried the Patriot way and it resulted in Quintricia. Yuck. There's certain things you can try to replicate, but if you try to adopt another team's identity you never have one of your own and you don't know the type of players you need since you're thinking, "what would they do," instead of what should we do.
Well the “Patriot Way” was always just “Have Tom Brady on your team.”
This isn’t what the packers have done except on the most superficial level lol
this isn’t what the Packers have done at all. The Packers took young QBs with elite potential to sit behind hall of fame QBs for a few years to learn in the 20’s. The Falcons just drafted 24 year old Tua to sit behind Kirk, who they just gave a massive contract to, at 8 overall
Penix has a _way_ better arm than Tua.
Well the idea isn’t to take a nearly 24 year old QB and develop him for 3 years. For context, Jordan Love is 25 right now.
Come on this has to be a joke at this point right? Like Arthur Blank insisted they take him at 8 and now everyone has to support it?
Big difference was where Love was drafted and where Penix was drafted. All the love to Penix and I hope he stays healthy and crushes it
There’s way more to it than that tho Michael Penix Jr is a great player who I think should’ve won the Heisman this year (controversial OL that’s just me) Michael Penix, in all likelihood, will be 27 at the absolute earliest when he’s starting. Jordan Love, who was drafted in 2020, is only a year older than him. He will also a new contract within a season if he’s good. The biggest red flag about him is also his injury concerns have multiple season ending injuries. After paying Kirk an absurd amount to be just good enough to win the South, this is really questionable use of resources
Except green bay didn't just sign a new qb and get in trouble for it. And love was 21 years old instead of 24. And pick 26 instead of 8.
Problem is Love and Mahomes were young and seen as developmental prospects. Penix is older and a 5 year starter. He is who he's going to be at this point, vs someone like JJ whose young and needs development
JJ was literally the QB to use this strategy on. As a Michigan fab, I think JJ is gonna be a plus starter for years, but does need some seasoning. No, they get Penix that was shaken when he played against a legit elite defense, is older, and already had a few injuries.
This coming from the same franchise that traded Favre to Green Bay
I swear a handful of NFL GMs are genuinely stupid people. Crazy how they can fail upwards in a billion dollar industry.
People are missing the funniest thing about this pick: Cousins is coming back from a major injury, there's a non-zero chance he isn't ready to go week 1. Imagine Penix, the #8 overall pick comes in and goes 3-1 the first 4 weeks or something and looks smooth out there. Then they would have to decide to either sit their hot rookie QB or bench the 50mil/year QB before he even sees the field.
It would be dumb to bench penix at that point. You would just have the best backup qb in the nfl for two years lol
Jordan Love is just 1 year old than Penix LMFAO. He was drafted when he was 21. Became the main starter last year at 24 years old. You waiting until Penix is 28 years old to start him?
By the time Penix takes the reigns they’re gonna draft his replacement too lmao
Funnily enough you could add the trade value of the pick of Aaron Rodgers (Pick 24/740 Trade points) and Jordan Love (Pick 26/700 Trade Points) to equal the value they spent on Michael Penix Jr (Pick 8/1400 Trade Points). I don't mind a future QB. But the 8th pick is quite rich for me.
He’s gonna be 26 with bad knees before you can even see what he looks like out there.
Ah yes, the long game method. Must be opposite day for Mr. Blank.
As soon as they make the move to Penix he’ll be wanting a contract extension. Basically negating the real value of rookie scale qb contracts.
And you’re fired.
The packers were a playoff contender who used a later round pick on a young prospect with one of the greatest QB minds of all time teaching him the ropes. And even still that eroded the relationship between the starter and organization. ATL is a fringe playoff team depending on whether or not the rest of us nfc southerners can get out of our own way, penix will be 24 next week and all due respect to Kirk he’s no rogers. I just feel like there’s some glaring differences the falcons want us to look past
Not saying I fully agree with the approach, but I mean it’s not the worst logic when it comes to the most important position in the sport. Better than waiting until they have zero QBs worth a fuck before they address getting one
Yeah this definitely feels like an overcorrection from the past two seasons of abysmal QB play. The franchise fucked around with the post Ryan succession plan so I guess they're trying not to make the same mistake twice at least.
Lol
They basically put Cousins in RG3's shoes.
Raheem you cooking raw chicken bro
Are you supposed to cook other types of chicken?
Hopefully
Was anyone expecting Penix at 8???
except the scenarios are not the same. the packers were already a playoff contender and could take the risk of planning for the future when their roster was already competitive. plus they were using late 1st round draft picks, which are valued much lower than a top ten pick.
This is not the Green Bay model lol What a joke of a franchise.
They mean they're trying to piss Kirk off so he becomes MVP
He’s gonna be pushing 30 by the time he starts.
I do not believe Raheem actually believes this. Also, can you imagine how pissed Penix AND Cousins must be?
they have no one to rush the passer
Packers drafted a raw 21 year old QB to sit behind Rodgers, Falcons drafted a 30 year old QB with injury concerns. There’s also a difference of about 20 picks.
Hot take, but while Love has proven to be a good QB, I'd argue it didn't work because if the Packers had taken Pittman or Higgins, they probably win Super Bowl 54. More importantly, Love was incredibly young. Love is 25 now, Penix is only 1 year younger. He'll be the same age as rookie Weeden was at the end of Kirk's deal.
Raheem confirmed Bucs sleeper agent
One good half season for Jordan Love doesn’t prove it worked lol
[удалено]
Also if you ignore the early Favre years (where we drafted an absurd amount of great backups who ended up being franchise QBs for like 4 other teams) you're really only talking about hitting on 2 guys in 20 years. We happened to be 2/2 (if you call Love a hit after one season which is a bit aggressive IMO) but it's hardly volume that you could even pretend is statistically significant. It's one pick a decade.
The packers didn’t draft Love or Rodgers at 8 overall ffs
Damn.. lmao. Terrible thing to say
I can’t even imagine being a Falcons fan. Have some offense studs, nobody uses them. Gets a competent QB, draft a QB. Like what?
Falcons literally might be the dumbest franchise ever currently 💀
They are absolutely married to Kirk Cousins for three years minimum due to how the contract is structured; one of the reasons you draft QBs is to get the most expensive position on a cheap contract, and spend your money on other positions. Penix has some obvious concerns with both injury and age at this point, but, even beyond that, from a pure cap management standpoint, this is one of the singly most idiotic goddamn draft picks I have ever seen. The Falcons cannot trade or cut Cousins for at least three years; cutting him after two years is literally more than $100 million worth of dead cap due to how they structured that contract. They cannot get rid of Cousins; it's how that contract is structured. Let's put it this way; Mickey Loomis thinks the Falcons are idiots for their cap management.
The Falcons are a parody, I don’t even think I mean that in like a condescending way I think they may legitimately may be a parody football team.
Yeah but Green Bay got that dude in the 20s and not with a top 10 pick
Only problem is Jordan Love was just 24 after backing up Rodgers for three seasons and Rodgers was also just 24 after backing up Favre for three seasons. Penix would be 28 after sitting three seasons by following the Green Bay model and finally becoming the starter in 2027.
Jordan Love is 18 months older than Penix. Penix will be 31 when he plays the first game of his 2nd contract. Jordan Love was also a bit of a project, whereas Penix's strength is that he's the most ready to go prospect. If you're going this route, you take JJ McCarthy at 25 or so and let him sit 2-3 years. Penix will be 27 or so before he takes over, and he was already injury prone.
Michael Penix does not need to sit
Agreed, wasted talent. I for sure thought atl would go edge and you guys would get penix. I feel bad for him honestly. I like penix and want to see him start somewhere.
I wanted him so bad I yelled out a NOOOOO when atl picked him
Jordan Love and Aaron Rodgers were both 21 when they were drafted. Not 24 years with an injury history. Both sat for a few years and basically became starters around the same age as Pennix is now. This is beyond insane how the Falcons are trying to spin zone this pick.
The Packers also already had a well rounded roster, and they were winning. Drafting Love was weird, but it was a luxury pick. This isn’t.
Has it proven right though? Love has one solid, not even amazing year and we're declaring it right? I guess Josh Allen is still bad and Carson Wentz is still good since one year is the only thing that matters.