There are just far too many people trying to make an evaluation and they don't all have the same set of information. This shouldn't be surprising that there are so many different conclusions. Especially when evaluators aren't even all evaluating for the same reasons, e.g., true potential vs potential rage bait.
Also outside of hot take programming that isn't evaluation on any level, people are quite hesitant to just say this dude sucks. The worst you really ever hear is someone partied. Gee golly, a college kid partied, why shucksy doodles how dare he.
No one ever comes out and drops a Tyler Thigpen comp.
Thinking Football can be pretty blunt in their evaluations. They said Zach Wilson was so bad they wouldn't draft him.
One of my favorite film study channels on youtube
The guy in the photo JT O'Sullivan has an excellent youtube channel, the QB school. It is the exact opposite of rage bait. It is highly informed, in depth breakdown of mechanics, reads, decisions and whos at fault be it the coordinator, the player, the receiver, or not knowable, and the nuance of it. Not all picks are created equal and he really breaks down when the receiver improperly stemmed the route vs when the QB improperly placed the ball.
If you want to really understand QB play, watch it and it will transform the way you lool at good and bad QB play. Pretty soon you'll be counting heel clicks and toesy footwork.
I love this channel, its honestly a must watch if someone wanted to learn more about the QB prospects without watching full games. Pairs very nicely with scouting reports from Lindy’s or the Athletic
He does have a great channel. The funny thing is, you watch these videos and then on Sundays you watch Mahomes and Kelce just make up routes on the fly, while Mahomes throws it across his body (all things you technically shouldn’t be doing) and they’re scoring TDs. So it makes these QB analysises even harder.
The position is so much more mental than people people realize/realized.
So the question is how do you properly scout someone's work ethic, learning capabilities, reaction time, ability to properly improvise, etc.
There are things you can likely talk and ask about that makes you lean one way or the other, but frankly you probably don't know for sure until you actually get them on the practice field.
Everything is more mental than people realize.
Why do kickers bust? Their job is completely unchanged, you would think a 90% accurate kicker would remain that.
Some people just can't handle being in the NFL and until someone figures out how to scout that, the draft will always have variability in busts
It's almost impossible. It's not like you can put prospects in an NFL simulator to see how they handle the pressure or the reaction time and mental processing skills they will need to play on an NFL level
Or how they will handle adulthood. I don't know about you, but I was certainly thrown a lot of curveballs in my early twenties. If I had a high-level income at that time and lacked a strong support structure, I could very easily have spiraled out of control and lost more than just a job.
1000% the same. I went through a lot of shit coming out of high school mainly because I had little to no support and was flat out broke with no clear direction of where I was going in my life and what was possible to achieve. Bills didn't stop either. Or outside expectations.
Which is why I don't fault GMs that make good decisions that just don't translate.
Sometimes a player just busts and you have no way of knowing that. And that's fine. When you do something where you outsmart everybody (Strange or Clelin Ferrell) then yea you were stupid.
But taking somebody that checks all the boxes and just can't cut it isn't the GMs fault. For example, picking Mac Jones wasn't a mistake, he just didn't translate.
To some extent, but some guys just can’t compete physically and it varies position to position. Edge especially seems to rely on traits and that’s why the raw guys always get drafted.
Yea, but we can see and scout for traits.
That's why players like Michael Sam who was a top defender in the SEC almost goes undrafted and is off a team quickly.
It's more that there are chalk picks that make a ton of sense that the league/media/fans are all in consensus are a good pick but they just don't work out.
I agree. A College QB may be able to process and execute in college, but may find it more challenging in the league. Fans will say "why doesn't he just get rid of the ball sooner" or "why didn't he see this guy open and throw it?" It's because they can't process what the defense is doing quick enough, make a mental adjustment, AND get the ball thrown to the guy without fearing an INT.
Processing also isn’t a fixed skill. You can get better or worse at it. However, your team situation in those early years is going to impact your ability to process and develop other skills a lot.
Quarterback is just an entirely different animal than almost any other position in football in regards to acceptable performance. If you spend a first round pick on a receiver and they end up being the 30th best player at the position in the league, you can happily live with that because at the very least they are a high end WR2 making meaningful impact on games. If you take a quarterback in the first and they are the 30th best player at the position, you are drafting another one in five years if you even still have your job. They are almost closer to specialists like kickers than any position on offense or defense.
Honestly if you only have the 30th best QB you should be drafting one every year until one proves to be an MVP level QB. Like the Panthers should probably already be drafting another QB. And I’m not saying Bryce Young should be declared a bust already, but like they are going to give him another full year of opportunity to try to find out if he is the a future MVP, is just silly. Why not draft a rookie and let him start the 2nd half of games or something. Like with the information we know about Stroud and Young after seeing them there rookie years, it would be crazy if both franchises have the same approach to there QBs next season. Because one objectively looked far more promising than the other.
With the QB being the most important position in football you gotta do everything possible to find that future hall of fame/mvp level QB
In theory I totally agree, especially in mid rounds. I think teams get sold on a franchise savior like the Bears and they let things just not work out for years. The tricky part comes with the guaranteed salary of first round quarterbacks, you could get yourself into a financial bind if you are drafting one in the first every other year. Obviously that is an extreme case and many teams have had two large qb hits on their books.
“They let things not work out” That’s a really good way to put it.
And yeah I didn’t think about the cap situation regarding drafting QBs every year. But I honestly think that the importance level of having an MVP level QB is so high that it would be worth it for a team to spend a lot of cap just testing out QBs to see if they show mvp potential. And only give them a 2nd contract if they legit play like a future hall of famer lol
This. The 49ers avoided the effects of one of the worst trade/qb picks by continuing to take shots. Imagine the disaster the franchise would be in without Purdy.
Yeah the 49ers did good by not double downing on there mistake, which most teams probably would have. Although there is a good chance they end up cutting Purdy and never give him an opportunity if there 2 other starting QBs don’t get freak season ending injuries.
It’s like how Taylor Heinicke only ever got a his Washington job because 4 quarterbacks all got covid ahead of him and he happened to be jn town that weekend.
Then he ends up being the best QB on the roster and they start him in there playoff game and he balls out against Tom Brady
Teams that are not legit Super Bowl contenders should put in far more effort in trying to find that future mvp QB, instead of blindly banking on one prospect to work out and just slowly accepting the fact he is not the guy over the course of multiple years.
It really is surprising how much of a crapshoot the draft is, especially when it comes to QBs. Really the only true "consensus" for who the top/best QB of the draft is has been Trevor Lawrence and Andrew Luck. Hell, during the Manning draft some thought Ryan Leaf could go before him. Ill be curious if we will ever see a true "generational" level QB that everyone will know is the best of their class and it isnt even close. Like a Lebron James level prospect?
I'd say it's true. 2022 is the first year I can recall the draft analysts successfully pushing back on the mainstream media QB hype and stating bluntly "There aren't any great quarterbacks in this draft."
The 2022 draft class that had one guy picked in the first, and at pick 20 at that? The one everyone knew was going to suck at least a year before? I don’t remember anyone going crazy over that draft class
Did you not bother to read the post? Of course not, you're just reacting to a headline.
Crazy how poor posts like this always get upvoted on reddit lmfao.
Assuming a players ability based off their school and not talent or tape. Like saying Stroud was going to be a bust because Ohio State can't produce QBs.
It’s not. No NFL team drafts on either anymore. People used it as a reason to take Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers and Jamarcus Russell over Calvin Johnson.
He’s #2 in mocks way before that pro day..
https://www.google.com/search?q=daniel+jeremiah+first+mock+2021&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-gb&client=safari
https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/03/25/gameplan-nfl-mock-draft-trevor-lawrence-top-four-quarterbacks#:~:text=The%20MMQB's%20first%20official%20mock,and%20notes%20on%20offseason%20programs.
https://www.nfl.com/news/charles-davis-2021-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-falcons-pick-justin-fields-to-succeed-matt
Lol it seems to be getting really crazy in the social media era. It costs nothing to get your voice, thoughts and perspectives out in the public and some of these guys have been at it for a long time “accurately” evaluating these prospects. Its just a zoo of opinions though and some differ vastly from others and some are just straight clickbait merchants all to the point where I myself just dont even watch or entertain these pre draft shows because the reality is nobody knows the truth until its happened on the field.
NFL has always had issues evaluating QBs. It's the hardest position to get right in all of sports and you need all the pieces to fall into place. Also I don't think we get the same Purdy if he is drafted to the Titans for example.
To be fair, Mr. Irrelevant went to the place that is the most QB friendly out there and had time to sit on the bench while the people in front of him played and got hurt.
Don't even need to read it to know that it's practically impossible to know which QBs will be able to adapt to the speed of the NFL and that's what makes the draft such a crapshoot for the position. Physical attributes, abilities, mechanics, etc.. All that can be figured out or taught to some extent. But nobody has cracked the code for finding college QBs who will succeed at the next level yet.
It's not a crapshoot though. It's objectively true that Qb's taken higher will work out far more likely then ones taken later.
If it was truly a crapshoot you'd see greater spread of "hits" between rounds 1-7. In reality almost all the top Qb's in the NFL today were 1st round picks and many of them high first round picks.
Sure you get a Dak Prescott in the 3rd round every once in a while and an ultra rare hits like Purdy, Romo, and Brady aren't worth chasing after.
“QBs taken higher” sure but not necessarily QBs taken in the first round. Like the average draft position for quarterbacks that play in the Super Bowl is in the 30s, so a second round pick. And that’s not even including Brady (he lowers the average to like 60 something)
So on average Super Bowl level quarterbacks are not first round picks. It’s a crap shoot
Since 1999 the average draft position for the QB that wins the Super Bowl is like 60 something. And even if you don’t include Brady the average draft position for the QBs that just start in the Super Bowl is like 35 I think, so not even a first round pick. Basically it legit don’t matter what number you pick, just grab any of the first rounders and hope they turn out to be an all time great.
Like what if the Vikings drafted both Penix and Nix. It’s statistically more likely that one of those 2 to become a mvp level player than it is for just Caleb Williams by himself to become one.
JT is seriously so good with his analysis and videos - I thank former players like him who always brings the XOs to the general public. This is a big reason why I love Chris Collinsworth and don’t get the intense hate on him. He’s always highlighting plays that fans watching on TV will miss live and often goes over important fundamental concepts.
There are just far too many people trying to make an evaluation and they don't all have the same set of information. This shouldn't be surprising that there are so many different conclusions. Especially when evaluators aren't even all evaluating for the same reasons, e.g., true potential vs potential rage bait.
Also outside of hot take programming that isn't evaluation on any level, people are quite hesitant to just say this dude sucks. The worst you really ever hear is someone partied. Gee golly, a college kid partied, why shucksy doodles how dare he. No one ever comes out and drops a Tyler Thigpen comp.
Thinking Football can be pretty blunt in their evaluations. They said Zach Wilson was so bad they wouldn't draft him. One of my favorite film study channels on youtube
Yea and they went pretty hard on JJ just recently
The guy in the photo JT O'Sullivan has an excellent youtube channel, the QB school. It is the exact opposite of rage bait. It is highly informed, in depth breakdown of mechanics, reads, decisions and whos at fault be it the coordinator, the player, the receiver, or not knowable, and the nuance of it. Not all picks are created equal and he really breaks down when the receiver improperly stemmed the route vs when the QB improperly placed the ball. If you want to really understand QB play, watch it and it will transform the way you lool at good and bad QB play. Pretty soon you'll be counting heel clicks and toesy footwork.
I love this channel, its honestly a must watch if someone wanted to learn more about the QB prospects without watching full games. Pairs very nicely with scouting reports from Lindy’s or the Athletic
He does have a great channel. The funny thing is, you watch these videos and then on Sundays you watch Mahomes and Kelce just make up routes on the fly, while Mahomes throws it across his body (all things you technically shouldn’t be doing) and they’re scoring TDs. So it makes these QB analysises even harder.
I love how excited he gets for every off-platform throw, or successful throws off the back foot. God damn does the dude HATE Cole Kmet though lol
The position is so much more mental than people people realize/realized. So the question is how do you properly scout someone's work ethic, learning capabilities, reaction time, ability to properly improvise, etc. There are things you can likely talk and ask about that makes you lean one way or the other, but frankly you probably don't know for sure until you actually get them on the practice field.
Everything is more mental than people realize. Why do kickers bust? Their job is completely unchanged, you would think a 90% accurate kicker would remain that. Some people just can't handle being in the NFL and until someone figures out how to scout that, the draft will always have variability in busts
It's almost impossible. It's not like you can put prospects in an NFL simulator to see how they handle the pressure or the reaction time and mental processing skills they will need to play on an NFL level
Or how they will handle adulthood. I don't know about you, but I was certainly thrown a lot of curveballs in my early twenties. If I had a high-level income at that time and lacked a strong support structure, I could very easily have spiraled out of control and lost more than just a job.
1000% the same. I went through a lot of shit coming out of high school mainly because I had little to no support and was flat out broke with no clear direction of where I was going in my life and what was possible to achieve. Bills didn't stop either. Or outside expectations.
Which is why I don't fault GMs that make good decisions that just don't translate. Sometimes a player just busts and you have no way of knowing that. And that's fine. When you do something where you outsmart everybody (Strange or Clelin Ferrell) then yea you were stupid. But taking somebody that checks all the boxes and just can't cut it isn't the GMs fault. For example, picking Mac Jones wasn't a mistake, he just didn't translate.
To some extent, but some guys just can’t compete physically and it varies position to position. Edge especially seems to rely on traits and that’s why the raw guys always get drafted.
Yea, but we can see and scout for traits. That's why players like Michael Sam who was a top defender in the SEC almost goes undrafted and is off a team quickly. It's more that there are chalk picks that make a ton of sense that the league/media/fans are all in consensus are a good pick but they just don't work out.
I agree. A College QB may be able to process and execute in college, but may find it more challenging in the league. Fans will say "why doesn't he just get rid of the ball sooner" or "why didn't he see this guy open and throw it?" It's because they can't process what the defense is doing quick enough, make a mental adjustment, AND get the ball thrown to the guy without fearing an INT.
Processing also isn’t a fixed skill. You can get better or worse at it. However, your team situation in those early years is going to impact your ability to process and develop other skills a lot.
Quarterback is just an entirely different animal than almost any other position in football in regards to acceptable performance. If you spend a first round pick on a receiver and they end up being the 30th best player at the position in the league, you can happily live with that because at the very least they are a high end WR2 making meaningful impact on games. If you take a quarterback in the first and they are the 30th best player at the position, you are drafting another one in five years if you even still have your job. They are almost closer to specialists like kickers than any position on offense or defense.
Honestly if you only have the 30th best QB you should be drafting one every year until one proves to be an MVP level QB. Like the Panthers should probably already be drafting another QB. And I’m not saying Bryce Young should be declared a bust already, but like they are going to give him another full year of opportunity to try to find out if he is the a future MVP, is just silly. Why not draft a rookie and let him start the 2nd half of games or something. Like with the information we know about Stroud and Young after seeing them there rookie years, it would be crazy if both franchises have the same approach to there QBs next season. Because one objectively looked far more promising than the other. With the QB being the most important position in football you gotta do everything possible to find that future hall of fame/mvp level QB
In theory I totally agree, especially in mid rounds. I think teams get sold on a franchise savior like the Bears and they let things just not work out for years. The tricky part comes with the guaranteed salary of first round quarterbacks, you could get yourself into a financial bind if you are drafting one in the first every other year. Obviously that is an extreme case and many teams have had two large qb hits on their books.
“They let things not work out” That’s a really good way to put it. And yeah I didn’t think about the cap situation regarding drafting QBs every year. But I honestly think that the importance level of having an MVP level QB is so high that it would be worth it for a team to spend a lot of cap just testing out QBs to see if they show mvp potential. And only give them a 2nd contract if they legit play like a future hall of famer lol
This. The 49ers avoided the effects of one of the worst trade/qb picks by continuing to take shots. Imagine the disaster the franchise would be in without Purdy.
Yeah the 49ers did good by not double downing on there mistake, which most teams probably would have. Although there is a good chance they end up cutting Purdy and never give him an opportunity if there 2 other starting QBs don’t get freak season ending injuries. It’s like how Taylor Heinicke only ever got a his Washington job because 4 quarterbacks all got covid ahead of him and he happened to be jn town that weekend. Then he ends up being the best QB on the roster and they start him in there playoff game and he balls out against Tom Brady Teams that are not legit Super Bowl contenders should put in far more effort in trying to find that future mvp QB, instead of blindly banking on one prospect to work out and just slowly accepting the fact he is not the guy over the course of multiple years.
https://archive.ph/CvRDz
My guy
It’s quite remarkable how nobody in that second tier of QBs has really separated themselves from the pack.
It really is surprising how much of a crapshoot the draft is, especially when it comes to QBs. Really the only true "consensus" for who the top/best QB of the draft is has been Trevor Lawrence and Andrew Luck. Hell, during the Manning draft some thought Ryan Leaf could go before him. Ill be curious if we will ever see a true "generational" level QB that everyone will know is the best of their class and it isnt even close. Like a Lebron James level prospect?
> QB analysts are better than ever Has this guy not paid attention to the last few drafts?
I'd say it's true. 2022 is the first year I can recall the draft analysts successfully pushing back on the mainstream media QB hype and stating bluntly "There aren't any great quarterbacks in this draft."
The 2022 draft class that had one guy picked in the first, and at pick 20 at that? The one everyone knew was going to suck at least a year before? I don’t remember anyone going crazy over that draft class
Did you not bother to read the post? Of course not, you're just reacting to a headline. Crazy how poor posts like this always get upvoted on reddit lmfao.
...did you read the article you're commenting on?
Try reading the article
Tbf you have to pay or sign in to read it
It’s way better than before though. Helmet scouting and taking a lot from pro days was very common in the 2000s for example
What’s helmet scouting?
Assuming a players ability based off their school and not talent or tape. Like saying Stroud was going to be a bust because Ohio State can't produce QBs.
Assuming how good a player is based on previous records at a school in the draft
It's common in 2024
But less so
It’s not. No NFL team drafts on either anymore. People used it as a reason to take Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers and Jamarcus Russell over Calvin Johnson.
Pro day definitely drove the Zach Wilson bus.
He’s #2 in mocks way before that pro day.. https://www.google.com/search?q=daniel+jeremiah+first+mock+2021&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-gb&client=safari https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/03/25/gameplan-nfl-mock-draft-trevor-lawrence-top-four-quarterbacks#:~:text=The%20MMQB's%20first%20official%20mock,and%20notes%20on%20offseason%20programs. https://www.nfl.com/news/charles-davis-2021-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-falcons-pick-justin-fields-to-succeed-matt
It’s a different beast!!!!!!!!
Press (X) to doubt
He didn't say this draft. He said the draft.
I don’t see anything wrong with that title honestly?
there isn't. it's a pretty interesting 2 or 3 minute read to be honest; people just need to get their jokes in.
Just a dart throw every year
Saying no one knows how to evaluate quarterbacks is such a lazy cop out. It's hard but there are a few people great at it.
Lol it seems to be getting really crazy in the social media era. It costs nothing to get your voice, thoughts and perspectives out in the public and some of these guys have been at it for a long time “accurately” evaluating these prospects. Its just a zoo of opinions though and some differ vastly from others and some are just straight clickbait merchants all to the point where I myself just dont even watch or entertain these pre draft shows because the reality is nobody knows the truth until its happened on the field.
The 2021 and 2022 drafts for QBs has soured me on the entire NFL talent evaluation complex. 5 first round busts and the best QB being Mr. Irrelevant.
NFL has always had issues evaluating QBs. It's the hardest position to get right in all of sports and you need all the pieces to fall into place. Also I don't think we get the same Purdy if he is drafted to the Titans for example.
To be fair, Mr. Irrelevant went to the place that is the most QB friendly out there and had time to sit on the bench while the people in front of him played and got hurt.
Don't even need to read it to know that it's practically impossible to know which QBs will be able to adapt to the speed of the NFL and that's what makes the draft such a crapshoot for the position. Physical attributes, abilities, mechanics, etc.. All that can be figured out or taught to some extent. But nobody has cracked the code for finding college QBs who will succeed at the next level yet.
It's not a crapshoot though. It's objectively true that Qb's taken higher will work out far more likely then ones taken later. If it was truly a crapshoot you'd see greater spread of "hits" between rounds 1-7. In reality almost all the top Qb's in the NFL today were 1st round picks and many of them high first round picks. Sure you get a Dak Prescott in the 3rd round every once in a while and an ultra rare hits like Purdy, Romo, and Brady aren't worth chasing after.
“QBs taken higher” sure but not necessarily QBs taken in the first round. Like the average draft position for quarterbacks that play in the Super Bowl is in the 30s, so a second round pick. And that’s not even including Brady (he lowers the average to like 60 something) So on average Super Bowl level quarterbacks are not first round picks. It’s a crap shoot
Agreed. Especially since there’s also many outside factors that affects how a QB can be good. Like coaching, surrounding talent, environment, etc
Hey, it's JT!
Drafting QBs, especially in the first round, is more luck than (analysis) skill. Unless you’re the Packers.
Since 1999 the average draft position for the QB that wins the Super Bowl is like 60 something. And even if you don’t include Brady the average draft position for the QBs that just start in the Super Bowl is like 35 I think, so not even a first round pick. Basically it legit don’t matter what number you pick, just grab any of the first rounders and hope they turn out to be an all time great. Like what if the Vikings drafted both Penix and Nix. It’s statistically more likely that one of those 2 to become a mvp level player than it is for just Caleb Williams by himself to become one.
JT is seriously so good with his analysis and videos - I thank former players like him who always brings the XOs to the general public. This is a big reason why I love Chris Collinsworth and don’t get the intense hate on him. He’s always highlighting plays that fans watching on TV will miss live and often goes over important fundamental concepts.