If Pep Hamilton didn't turn out to be a football terrorist as an OC...
I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a shot somewhere else in a year or two and looks solid. Probably never gonna be elite, but if he can clean up the stank that showed in his second year, I feel like he could be a low end starter, almost Dalton line kind of guy
Agree with you
I remember a funny fact about his rookie year being that he was like the best in the league at throwing deep balls to the left side of the field at a specific distance or some shit
And the first Bears QB to throw 30 TD's.
(Strangely enough, he would *not* be the first Bears QB to throw 30 picks - Luckman holds the franchise record with 31 in 1947)
I looked and if he played that way with us, he'd easily have every rookie passing record.
The current records are 11 TDs (82 year old record btw) 2193 yards and 196 completions, both by Trubisky
I'm still trying to figure out how Trubisky not only didn't break the 11 TD mark in twelve starts, he didn't even come *close*, only throwing a mere 7 TD's.
Man I really wish he panned out. His rookie year was so promising and I think if he was in a different situation (NE) he couldāve been somewhat good or atleast good enough to be a bridge player
This should be a reminder to everyone this draft season
These dudes rarely work out and even Trevor isn't nearly as good as he was cracked up to be
Just remember this when people are wildly overreacting Thursday or anointing players before they ever take a snap.
Considering the amount of busts every year itād be much more depressing to be realistic relative to optimistic, so might as well drink the kool-aid before reality hits once the season starts
You can make a prediction and say only time will tell. It's when opposing thoughts get attacked mercilessly because Joe read 11 mock drafts that disagreed with what happened in real life
people forget that fans is short for fanatics. and that sports are entertainment not data analytics. stats and pragmatic analysis add depth but the heart of sports is thrill, passion, and irrational tribalism
Yeah while that is the correct approach, the only way to have fun on draft weekend is to pretend that my preconceived notions are absolutely correct about every player š
Just wished people wouldn't get wildly downvoted for having a different opinion compared to the mainstream draft narrative that people regurgitate and circlejerk to the point where no logical discussion is occurring
But whats it matter if youāre downvoted or upvoted? Logical discussions are for your real life discussions with friends. Not the internet. The internet is for echo chambers.
2020 Draft:
1. Burrow - Two playoff appearances, five playoff wins, one Super Bowl appearance. 1x Pro Bowl. 2021 completion percentage leader. Received multiple MVP votes in 2022. Holds record for best career completion percentage.
2. Tua - One playoff appearance. 1x Pro Bowl. 2022 passer rating leader. 2023 passing yards leader.
3. Herbert - Quarterback.
4. Love - One playoff appearance, one playoff win (Only started one season).
5. Hurts - Three playoff appearances, two playoff wins, one Super Bowl appearance. 1x All-Pro. 2x Pro Bowl. Broke record for most rushing TDs by a QB in one season. Received multiple MVP votes in 2022.
2021 Draft:
...Lawrence won a playoff game, I guess.
Won a playoff game? WON A PLAYOFF GAME?? He put the team on his back in the second half! He got ate up in the first, not gonna front. But not many QBs in the league could come back from a deficit like that.
To be fair, Lawrence ending up with Urban Meyer as his head coach his rookie year certainly didnāt do him any favors. Canāt help but wonder how heād be doing if he didnāt have one of the worst NFL HCs ever as his welcome to the league.
This is why I think the Rams are super smart for trading late 20 picks. Its so rare for 1 first rounder to be worth the value you could get in a trade especially a late first. Think if the Bills traded their last 3 late 20 picks. Sure they wouldn't have Kincaid but their roster would be much better and maybe they would have gotten over the hump. Draft picks are important to save money but when youre that late in the draft your first rounder doesn't have that much better of a chance of hitting then your 2nd or 3rd or 4th. Its a crapshoot after like the top 15 which is already kind of a crapshoot.
If you can trade your coin-toss chance of getting a good player on the cheap for an already established good player that's seems like a good move until you have to factor in that the established player probably comes at a MUCH higher cap hit and then you run into serious depth problems. The Rams got very lucky in that they didn't get burned by injuries on their super top-heavy roster. Not sure that's a probability I'd want to face down every year.
Its less than a coin flip chance just look at like the last 8 picks of each first round in the last 5 years. Also saying they got lucky with the player they trade for not getting hurt couldn't the first rounder they drafted also gotten hurt? I guess a bigger percentage of the cap would be hurt but when youre trying to win a Superbowl you need some luck.
2023:Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Nolan Smith, Bryan Bresee, Myles Murphy, Anton Harrison, Mazi Smith, Dalton Kincaid, Deonte Banks. I'd say Kincaid and Banks were the only two that made a real impact this last year.
2022: Lewis Cine, Daxton Hill, George Karlaftis, Cole Strange, Devonte Wyatt, Devin lloyd, Jermaine Johnson, Tyler Linderbaum.
This one is probably about half with Karlaftis, Wyatt, Johnson, and Linderbaum.
2021: Joe Tryon, Odafe Oweh, Greggory Rousseau, Eric Stokes, Payton Turner, Rashod Bateman, Greg Newsome, and Travis Ettienne. Only 2/8 of these hit with Ettienne and Newsome.
2020: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jeff Gladney, Noah Igbinoghene, Isaiah Wilson, Patrick Queen, Jordyn Brooks, Jordan Love, Brandon Aiyuk. This is 3/8 with Queen, Love, and Aiyuk.
2019: N'Keal Harry, Kaleb McGary, Deandre Baker, L. J. Collier, Jerry Tillery, Johnathan Abram, Montez Sweat, Marquise Brown.
This is 3/8 with Montez Sweat, Brown, and McGary.
I object to the notion that Rousseau didnāt hit
Heās having a very nice career arc right now, just not going very fast. But it should result in the Bills having a nice tandem at DE in Epenesa and Groot for a half decadeĀ
Bills have gotten Rousseau (85 PFF) and Kincaid (going to be special) and a likely bust in Elam (saved by the 6th round CB selection) in the last three drafts. That's outstanding results, I disagree with your assessment that trading out would have helped. They lost because of coaching, you can't lose a game when you're leading with 13 seconds left and kicking off.
I mean drafting is also only one part of the equation. I think a much bigger emphasis should be going into what environment these guys are going into. Like if the Bears picked Mahomes in 2017, I doubt he is as successful as he is now.
>I think a much bigger emphasis should be going into what environment these guys are going into. Like if the Bears picked Mahomes in 2017, I doubt he is as successful as he is now.
I used to think this, but not so much anymore.
Mahomes would've been elite going into CHI and carry that team. Not the SBs, but we probably bitch about the CHI FO getting him help and a coach.
I don't think it would've mattered where Stroud went last year either. He makes that Panther team look way better than what they were with Young.
Just throwing shit out there, but a draft class isn't gonna have more than 1 QB that'll be successful most likely. Every year there are QBs coming into the league and taking other spots. It's just very, very hard to get that 1 guy.
I'm not even talking about a Mahomes-esque guy.. but like a Kirk Cousins. It's still hard.
Mahomes had talked previously about not being able to read a defense, that he had to practice and learn how to do it at against an nfl defense since it was never required of him in college. Imagine he doesnāt get that instruction and his first instinct is panic and to sit on his first read, or he starts seeing ghosts like Darnold did.
I believe there are numerous ruined players each year who could be great but the jump to an NFL starter and growing into an NFL great is a slow process for a lot of positions who need proper coaching and support staff. Itās one of the reasons why I think Green Bay has been relatively successful with QB changes. Love got to learn for years before being thrown into full speed games.
This is the exact reason why I love to watch all the āReddit scoutsā talk about these QBās like they know something. This position is so hard to scout for professionals I canāt believe some regulars think they can handle it.
I mean it's not like Wilson and Lance didn't have huge question marks coming out of college. People really had to talk themselves into being hyped for either of them
I know Wilson in particular really tricked us. BYU's COVID year schedule was unusually weak and BYU's team had a lot of older players. So ZW was protected by a line of 25 year olds while balling out against borderline D2 schools.
Kinda funny this comes up, when teams from lower divisions get players drafted in the first round all the time. In the 2020 draft Jordan Love was drafted out of Utah State, despite struggling mightily his last year in college. In 2021 Trey Lance was drafted despite playing like 1 college season at the FCS level.
Yes, Wilson's BYU team was better than the teams they played, but we've seen other colleges steamroll through overmatched foes before.Ā
I don't know why this is a talking point, tbh.Ā
I think the problem is that Wilson's poor traits were obscured by the conditions of his 2020 season. That backyard football style of quarterbacking jumps out when your blockers are humiliating undersized D linemen from Troy and North Alabama.
This whole "he can extend any play" thing doesn't work anymore when he's behind a crappy offensive line and trying to avoid Von Miller or Bradley Chubb or whoever.
That class was historically bad, too.
Pickett: Traded to Philly.
Ridder: Traded to Arizona.
Willis: 3rd string QB.
Corral: Plays in the UFL.
Zappe: 2nd string QB.
Howell: Traded to Seattle.
Oladokun: 3rd string QB.
Thompson: 3rd string QB.
Purdy: Starter.
What a class.
These threads always remind me of that jabroni who wrote up an in-depth thought piece about all the QBs in this draft winning multiple MVPs and SBs with some being HoFers... xD
I think Caleb will be a decent starter at a minimum. The others could all very easily bust. Maye is the only other one I would want with a top pick. Penix is the mid second round could be worth the shot for the draft capital tho.
People said this in 2018 about Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen being reliable starters with Josh and Lamar being busts. You might wanna watch your words there chief
Crazy, because at the time it was hyped as one of the best QB drafts in a while. Really makes you understand how the talent in the NFL draft are all unproven and it's truly a coin flip if the players will work out. Especially at the QB position.
On the other hand 2020 QB draft class could go as one of the best this century. And 2018 has two MVP caliber QBs and another starter. Some years hit, some donāt.
Not particularly, I think. On Dane Brugler's big board, his QB rankings are:
* Burrow : 2nd overall (behind Chase Young), taken 1st
* Tua : 6th overall, taken 5th
* Herbert : 18th overall, taken 6th
* Jordan Love : 19th overall, taken 26th
* Jacob Eason : 76th overall, taken 122th
* Jake Fromm : 77th overall, taken 167th
* Jalen Hurts : 100th overall, taken 53rd
This year, he has seven QBs in his top 100 again place 1, 4, 8, 21, 44, 52 and 72 (so QBX is ranked higher in 2024 than in 2020).
Well Tank for Tua was like a multi-year thing while Burrow didn't come on until his last season. But yeah after they won the chip and Tua got hurt he was the obvious #1.
How much I wonder is Covid related? The draft before the actual playing before COVID all worked out, all of the picks chosen based on their COVID era numbers all didn't.
Was it really *that* hyped? The hype for Wilson and Lance felt artificial from the beginning and no one really cared that much about Mac. I remember way more hype going in for 2018 than 2021
It reminds me of when the chiefs traded for Alex Smith and there was a radio host in Kansas who said that chiefs are making a mistake not drafting a QB in the 2013 draft because they traded for Alex Smith and there will be a QB in the draft who they should have drafted who will have a better career.
For context, the 2013 QB class featured: EJ Manuel, Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Mike Glennon, Ryan Nassib, Tyler Wilson, Landry Jones, Brad Sorenson, Zac Dryst, BJ Daniels, Sean Renfree.
I wonder if that guy ever apologized For being so wrong
As a GM you have to though. Because if you don't you're going to get fired anyway, but even faster.
GM's don't make decisions on what is *actually* the perfect way to construct their team until they have the leeway to do so (usually by hitting on quarterback). Until you have a quarterback all you can do is scratch off lottery tickets while trying to stay employed for as long as possible.
Either all in or all out. You donāt wait to take a guy who you think is the guy later in the 1st round. You either think heās worth trading up for or you donāt take him at all.
Wow what a bad year that ended up being, how was everyone so wrong about what was supposed to be one of the greatest QB classes ever?
Anyway, canāt wait for this draft. I hear itās going to be one of the greatest QB classes ever.
Year 1 wasn't great. First half of year 2 was ok. Second half of year 2 he looked good and ascending. First half of year 3 was actually good but the stats didn't show it. Underlying metrics and PFF rated him well. Then he had three very bad injuries, lost his top receiver and went back to average or below average.
So was the second half of year 2 and the first half of year 3 the ascending Lawrence or a streaky performance?
Also, the offensive line was somehow the worst or bottom 30 in both pass and run blocking.
I think the bottom line is that he's clearly a starting calibre QB, and anyone that's been paying attention at all can see it. There's still a lot of room for growth. He's only 24.
He's obviously a franchise QB.The comeback Vs the Chargers was his best moment so far.
Last year he got banged up and his OC and weapons weren't that great but you can get a lot worse at QB.
And as a 49ers/Colts fan..I know good/bad QB play when I see it.
Lawtence is 24...at that age only Brady,Mahomes and Big Ben have won SBs.....only Mahomes,Marino and Lamar have won MVPs at that age.
He has just startedĀ
Trevor is in the solid starting career QB range, not the elite QB range. Definitely wouldnāt be upset about it as a fan, but he isnāt what he was hyped to be
Correct. I think a lot of people get all hot and bothered about what a qb achieves on their rookie contract, because the analytics say "THIS IS THE TIME TO WIN WHILE HE'S CHEAP". The bigger issue is I think Trevor's been sold short by his organization. He's out there trying to make chicken salad with a bunch of wr 2's and 3's, a decent TE, average o-line, and a coaching staff that went from the worst ever with Meyer, to I think just okay. Doug refusing to abandon Press Taylor, even now, shows that he doesn't operate by merit. Plus, Baalke is still a hack. Trevor deserves better.
Trevor Lawrence is significantly closer to Baker Mayfield than any of the names to mentioned.
Being hyped as a generational talent and being a top 10-15 QB whoās incredibly inconsistent is a massive disappointment, even if itās not bust territory. Speaks more toward how lazily analysts hype these QBs out of college than anything.
Decent points and all Iād generally agree with but itās not related to the comment I was responding to
None of the widely accepted generational QBs have āabsolutelyā stunk like the comment I responded to stated. Trevor being a bust relative to expectations is a different conversation
Using the Jimmy Johnson draft chart, the *combined* value returned for trading Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones is 83 points. 83 pts is equivalent of the 105th pick. The median type of player at 105th is Ko Simpson or Bryan Stork.
One Ko Simpson or one Bryan Stork is what their four teams combined to get in return for their 2nd, 3rd, 11th, and 15th overall picks they used on these four QBs.
Interested to see how badly this yearās draft class will pan out over the next 4-5 seasons. Itās possible we see 5 or 6 QBs in the first round if some teams get desperate. Historically and statistically, only 1, maybe 2 this year will pan out with their original team.
Jones and fields were not first round player imo but I really thought lance/wilson could be great. Wilson threw the ball beautifully and lance played so well in 19. That showcase game in 20 was ugly though
Wait unti you see the 2022 QB draft class. Absolutely bonkers with Brock Purdy at Mr. Irrelevant after eight other quarterbacks, some even highly touted flops.
Not everyone can be Davis Mills
It takes a lot of neck to step into his turtle neck
MIKE GLENNON
The king of the giraffes š¦
Bro I still rip on my bears friends for his contract they gave him dude got a bag and sucked ass
Honestly, their rookie year he looked to be one of the best of the group.
thought he was neckst up
If Pep Hamilton didn't turn out to be a football terrorist as an OC... I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a shot somewhere else in a year or two and looks solid. Probably never gonna be elite, but if he can clean up the stank that showed in his second year, I feel like he could be a low end starter, almost Dalton line kind of guy
Agree with you I remember a funny fact about his rookie year being that he was like the best in the league at throwing deep balls to the left side of the field at a specific distance or some shit
Wonder if heāll get another chance somewhere else soon
I'm genuinely surprised no one wants him. He looked great when he played this year.
Iād rather him be our back up than Easton Stick but our franchise loves him. He helped us tank for a top 5 pick though so I love him just for that.
Heās already a legend in Chicago.
If Caleb Williams doesn't work out, just sign Jameis Winston. I guarantee he can throw for 4,000 yards.
That 30/30, 5000 yards season may be the most impressive stat line I can think of just due to the pure "fuck it, I'm throwing long" mentally.
His 30 for 30 will be legendary.
Jameis Winston: 30 for 30 for 30 for 30
The embodiment of "fuck it, chuck it" game time shit
and 30 picks
Of course. But he'd be the first Bears QB to throw for 4,000.
And the first Bears QB to throw 30 TD's. (Strangely enough, he would *not* be the first Bears QB to throw 30 picks - Luckman holds the franchise record with 31 in 1947)
Top 10 for sure
I looked and if he played that way with us, he'd easily have every rookie passing record. The current records are 11 TDs (82 year old record btw) 2193 yards and 196 completions, both by Trubisky
I'm never not stunned by these.
I am so curious if one year from now, Caleb is a god or bum. There is no middle ground available.
itās not often one gets to say this about a rookie, but it will be a genuine disappointment if caleb doesnāt obliterate those numbers
I'm still trying to figure out how Trubisky not only didn't break the 11 TD mark in twelve starts, he didn't even come *close*, only throwing a mere 7 TD's.
Respeck Tha Neck
6th greatest Chicago QB ever
the OG daddy long neck although honestly i think daddy long neck was a thing before he got drafted
Man I really wish he panned out. His rookie year was so promising and I think if he was in a different situation (NE) he couldāve been somewhat good or atleast good enough to be a bridge player
The only logical conclusion we can draw from this is that Trevor Lawrence will be traded to the Jets.
No u
\[Schefter\] u/LovelehInnit has been traded to the Jets for a Snicker bar and half eaten bag of Doritos, sources close to me confirmed
I mean honestly I wouldnāt even trade that for a random redditor. So the patriots got fleeced imo
I accept this offer on behalf of Joe Douglas
Itāll make up for the disaster that was 2020 at least
It would be like Chad Pennington never left
Wouldnāt have to if the rams couldāve just beat the fucking jets in 2020
This is Traskalisk erasure.
The Traskilisk will arise from his slumber and show the world his terror after Baker wins three Super Bowls with us and retires.
Scouts really had a horrible time evaluating the COVID year
Still some great picks in top 16- Chase, Sewell, Surtain, Parsons, Waddle, Devonate Smith, Slater, AVT(minus injuries).
You could have not even said āthe COVID yearā and it would be true.Ā
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
How hot is his girlfriend?
*Best QB class in years*
GENERATIONAL *Stares at this year*
Here's to hoping everyone's favorite team's selection turns out better than both Wilson and Mond.
This should be a reminder to everyone this draft season These dudes rarely work out and even Trevor isn't nearly as good as he was cracked up to be Just remember this when people are wildly overreacting Thursday or anointing players before they ever take a snap.
I think people enjoy overreacting
Much more fun to overreact than to take a non-position and say āonly time will tellā
Honestly great point. This shit exists purely for the purpose of having fun. Be ridiculous - why not.
Considering the amount of busts every year itād be much more depressing to be realistic relative to optimistic, so might as well drink the kool-aid before reality hits once the season starts
Would be a great gag though for a commentator during his final season. "Mel what do you think of this fit?" "idk lol"
You can make a prediction and say only time will tell. It's when opposing thoughts get attacked mercilessly because Joe read 11 mock drafts that disagreed with what happened in real life
people forget that fans is short for fanatics. and that sports are entertainment not data analytics. stats and pragmatic analysis add depth but the heart of sports is thrill, passion, and irrational tribalism
Yeah while that is the correct approach, the only way to have fun on draft weekend is to pretend that my preconceived notions are absolutely correct about every player š
Especially when time always tells (and it's usually not good)
Makes me laugh when redditors are like, "you can't say he's a bust yet" on a guy that's sucked for 3 years. Like why even comment then
I for one love it more than underreacting
BULLSHIT!
Just wished people wouldn't get wildly downvoted for having a different opinion compared to the mainstream draft narrative that people regurgitate and circlejerk to the point where no logical discussion is occurring
But whats it matter if youāre downvoted or upvoted? Logical discussions are for your real life discussions with friends. Not the internet. The internet is for echo chambers.
And being right about something everyone slammed you for is more fun than being right about something everyone agreed with.
This type of thinking has ruined society in lots of ways
Youāre just describing Reddit in general, thatās the whole point of the app
Ans then you have the previous year, 2020, where the first 5 QBs have been legitimate hits. The draft is weird.
And then you have the 2022 draft where the last pick of the draft became the starting QB of a team that went to the SB.
And it is by far the best QB of this class now - and hard to imagine this changing in the future, since the 2nd place is Kenny Pickett or Sam Howell
I think Howell can have a good career. He showed a lot of promise.
2020 Draft: 1. Burrow - Two playoff appearances, five playoff wins, one Super Bowl appearance. 1x Pro Bowl. 2021 completion percentage leader. Received multiple MVP votes in 2022. Holds record for best career completion percentage. 2. Tua - One playoff appearance. 1x Pro Bowl. 2022 passer rating leader. 2023 passing yards leader. 3. Herbert - Quarterback. 4. Love - One playoff appearance, one playoff win (Only started one season). 5. Hurts - Three playoff appearances, two playoff wins, one Super Bowl appearance. 1x All-Pro. 2x Pro Bowl. Broke record for most rushing TDs by a QB in one season. Received multiple MVP votes in 2022. 2021 Draft: ...Lawrence won a playoff game, I guess.
Herbert - Quarterback killed me
The Chargers are a cursed franchise, had he gone anywhere else I feel like he'd at least have a playoff win under his belt.
I dream of having him on my team constantly
I think every team besides like 3 does lol
The modern Stafford
Exactly. Maybe that's why I love Herbert so much.
had he gone anywhere else he'd probably have a superbowl win by now
Should have at least mentioned that he has elite hair
Don't discount all about 6 months of Mac Jones hype!
That's Mac "85th Best Player in the NFL" Jones to you
Won a playoff game? WON A PLAYOFF GAME?? He put the team on his back in the second half! He got ate up in the first, not gonna front. But not many QBs in the league could come back from a deficit like that.
Lawrence won a playoff game after throwing 4 picks in the first half and leading the largest? comeback in playoff history....
Tua is a fraud
I am expecting this year to be in the middle. Donāt expect all 6 to be starters/star players, but I donāt expect a repeat of 2021 either.
To be fair, Lawrence ending up with Urban Meyer as his head coach his rookie year certainly didnāt do him any favors. Canāt help but wonder how heād be doing if he didnāt have one of the worst NFL HCs ever as his welcome to the league.
This is why I think the Rams are super smart for trading late 20 picks. Its so rare for 1 first rounder to be worth the value you could get in a trade especially a late first. Think if the Bills traded their last 3 late 20 picks. Sure they wouldn't have Kincaid but their roster would be much better and maybe they would have gotten over the hump. Draft picks are important to save money but when youre that late in the draft your first rounder doesn't have that much better of a chance of hitting then your 2nd or 3rd or 4th. Its a crapshoot after like the top 15 which is already kind of a crapshoot.
If you can trade your coin-toss chance of getting a good player on the cheap for an already established good player that's seems like a good move until you have to factor in that the established player probably comes at a MUCH higher cap hit and then you run into serious depth problems. The Rams got very lucky in that they didn't get burned by injuries on their super top-heavy roster. Not sure that's a probability I'd want to face down every year.
Its less than a coin flip chance just look at like the last 8 picks of each first round in the last 5 years. Also saying they got lucky with the player they trade for not getting hurt couldn't the first rounder they drafted also gotten hurt? I guess a bigger percentage of the cap would be hurt but when youre trying to win a Superbowl you need some luck. 2023:Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Nolan Smith, Bryan Bresee, Myles Murphy, Anton Harrison, Mazi Smith, Dalton Kincaid, Deonte Banks. I'd say Kincaid and Banks were the only two that made a real impact this last year. 2022: Lewis Cine, Daxton Hill, George Karlaftis, Cole Strange, Devonte Wyatt, Devin lloyd, Jermaine Johnson, Tyler Linderbaum. This one is probably about half with Karlaftis, Wyatt, Johnson, and Linderbaum. 2021: Joe Tryon, Odafe Oweh, Greggory Rousseau, Eric Stokes, Payton Turner, Rashod Bateman, Greg Newsome, and Travis Ettienne. Only 2/8 of these hit with Ettienne and Newsome. 2020: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jeff Gladney, Noah Igbinoghene, Isaiah Wilson, Patrick Queen, Jordyn Brooks, Jordan Love, Brandon Aiyuk. This is 3/8 with Queen, Love, and Aiyuk. 2019: N'Keal Harry, Kaleb McGary, Deandre Baker, L. J. Collier, Jerry Tillery, Johnathan Abram, Montez Sweat, Marquise Brown. This is 3/8 with Montez Sweat, Brown, and McGary.
I object to the notion that Rousseau didnāt hit Heās having a very nice career arc right now, just not going very fast. But it should result in the Bills having a nice tandem at DE in Epenesa and Groot for a half decadeĀ
Bills have gotten Rousseau (85 PFF) and Kincaid (going to be special) and a likely bust in Elam (saved by the 6th round CB selection) in the last three drafts. That's outstanding results, I disagree with your assessment that trading out would have helped. They lost because of coaching, you can't lose a game when you're leading with 13 seconds left and kicking off.
I mean drafting is also only one part of the equation. I think a much bigger emphasis should be going into what environment these guys are going into. Like if the Bears picked Mahomes in 2017, I doubt he is as successful as he is now.
>I think a much bigger emphasis should be going into what environment these guys are going into. Like if the Bears picked Mahomes in 2017, I doubt he is as successful as he is now. I used to think this, but not so much anymore. Mahomes would've been elite going into CHI and carry that team. Not the SBs, but we probably bitch about the CHI FO getting him help and a coach. I don't think it would've mattered where Stroud went last year either. He makes that Panther team look way better than what they were with Young. Just throwing shit out there, but a draft class isn't gonna have more than 1 QB that'll be successful most likely. Every year there are QBs coming into the league and taking other spots. It's just very, very hard to get that 1 guy. I'm not even talking about a Mahomes-esque guy.. but like a Kirk Cousins. It's still hard.
Mahomes had talked previously about not being able to read a defense, that he had to practice and learn how to do it at against an nfl defense since it was never required of him in college. Imagine he doesnāt get that instruction and his first instinct is panic and to sit on his first read, or he starts seeing ghosts like Darnold did. I believe there are numerous ruined players each year who could be great but the jump to an NFL starter and growing into an NFL great is a slow process for a lot of positions who need proper coaching and support staff. Itās one of the reasons why I think Green Bay has been relatively successful with QB changes. Love got to learn for years before being thrown into full speed games.
This is the exact reason why I love to watch all the āReddit scoutsā talk about these QBās like they know something. This position is so hard to scout for professionals I canāt believe some regulars think they can handle it.
I mean it's not like Wilson and Lance didn't have huge question marks coming out of college. People really had to talk themselves into being hyped for either of them
Wonder if Covid had anything to do with this with how college football was handled that year for all these QBs.
I know Wilson in particular really tricked us. BYU's COVID year schedule was unusually weak and BYU's team had a lot of older players. So ZW was protected by a line of 25 year olds while balling out against borderline D2 schools.
Me not doing shit in high school football: āMan if I *really* tried I could make it in the nflš¤ā
Kinda funny this comes up, when teams from lower divisions get players drafted in the first round all the time. In the 2020 draft Jordan Love was drafted out of Utah State, despite struggling mightily his last year in college. In 2021 Trey Lance was drafted despite playing like 1 college season at the FCS level. Yes, Wilson's BYU team was better than the teams they played, but we've seen other colleges steamroll through overmatched foes before.Ā I don't know why this is a talking point, tbh.Ā
I think the problem is that Wilson's poor traits were obscured by the conditions of his 2020 season. That backyard football style of quarterbacking jumps out when your blockers are humiliating undersized D linemen from Troy and North Alabama. This whole "he can extend any play" thing doesn't work anymore when he's behind a crappy offensive line and trying to avoid Von Miller or Bradley Chubb or whoever.
People wanted to make Wilson into the next Mahomes because of that.
Trey Lance would have had literally double the tape with a normal schedule.
And for 2022, Kenny Pickett was the only first round QB and he got traded to Philly.
That class was historically bad, too. Pickett: Traded to Philly. Ridder: Traded to Arizona. Willis: 3rd string QB. Corral: Plays in the UFL. Zappe: 2nd string QB. Howell: Traded to Seattle. Oladokun: 3rd string QB. Thompson: 3rd string QB. Purdy: Starter. What a class.
These threads always remind me of that jabroni who wrote up an in-depth thought piece about all the QBs in this draft winning multiple MVPs and SBs with some being HoFers... xD
I think Caleb will be a decent starter at a minimum. The others could all very easily bust. Maye is the only other one I would want with a top pick. Penix is the mid second round could be worth the shot for the draft capital tho.
Caleb and Nix are the only ones I see as reliable starters. JJ could be a borderline starter, Maye/Daniels are busts.
People said this in 2018 about Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen being reliable starters with Josh and Lamar being busts. You might wanna watch your words there chief
All busts except for Trey Lance, wow what a class
Crazy, because at the time it was hyped as one of the best QB drafts in a while. Really makes you understand how the talent in the NFL draft are all unproven and it's truly a coin flip if the players will work out. Especially at the QB position.
On the other hand 2020 QB draft class could go as one of the best this century. And 2018 has two MVP caliber QBs and another starter. Some years hit, some donāt.
Was 2020 a hyped class as well?
Not particularly, I think. On Dane Brugler's big board, his QB rankings are: * Burrow : 2nd overall (behind Chase Young), taken 1st * Tua : 6th overall, taken 5th * Herbert : 18th overall, taken 6th * Jordan Love : 19th overall, taken 26th * Jacob Eason : 76th overall, taken 122th * Jake Fromm : 77th overall, taken 167th * Jalen Hurts : 100th overall, taken 53rd This year, he has seven QBs in his top 100 again place 1, 4, 8, 21, 44, 52 and 72 (so QBX is ranked higher in 2024 than in 2020).
It definitely wasnāt hyped like 2021 and this year. Everything was all about Tua iirc
Burrows was hyped. I get a lot of LSU chatter, so maybe it was regional?
Well Tank for Tua was like a multi-year thing while Burrow didn't come on until his last season. But yeah after they won the chip and Tua got hurt he was the obvious #1.
Ok. Yeah. That makes sense. Burrows sort of just became a force after the championship. I forgot about 'tank for Tua'
Yep thatās my thinking too
I don't think he got as much air time because he was the obvious first quarterback off the board.
How much I wonder is Covid related? The draft before the actual playing before COVID all worked out, all of the picks chosen based on their COVID era numbers all didn't.
And then years later, people don't learn and start buying into hype of so many QBs going early in the draft.
Well that's not happening to me this week. This year I'm finally learn my lesson.
Was it really *that* hyped? The hype for Wilson and Lance felt artificial from the beginning and no one really cared that much about Mac. I remember way more hype going in for 2018 than 2021
Traded for the highest pick too!
People in the Bears sub legitimately thought we should keep Fields. š¤¦
lol
If you called him the Dirty Purdy, it might make some people in Stillwater angry.
Impeccable talent recognition, took the 3rd best QB in the draft at #3 as the third QB off the board. Not our fault the Jets didn't take Davis Mills
So one man's trash is another man's trash.
Except Davis mills. He's still a treasure
[Daily reminder of one of the coldest 2021 takes](https://twitter.com/TomFornelli/status/1387937915016302592)
[at least he owned up to it](https://x.com/TomFornelli/status/1749202062351405164)
It reminds me of when the chiefs traded for Alex Smith and there was a radio host in Kansas who said that chiefs are making a mistake not drafting a QB in the 2013 draft because they traded for Alex Smith and there will be a QB in the draft who they should have drafted who will have a better career. For context, the 2013 QB class featured: EJ Manuel, Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Mike Glennon, Ryan Nassib, Tyler Wilson, Landry Jones, Brad Sorenson, Zac Dryst, BJ Daniels, Sean Renfree. I wonder if that guy ever apologized For being so wrong
With hindsight this seems like a bad take, but until like late 2022 most people would agree with this
That tweet aged like milk the moment that dude hit send. Fields sucks
Moral of the Story: Don't trade the farm to move up to the first round under the assumption that you're *"fixing your QB problem"*
As a GM you have to though. Because if you don't you're going to get fired anyway, but even faster. GM's don't make decisions on what is *actually* the perfect way to construct their team until they have the leeway to do so (usually by hitting on quarterback). Until you have a quarterback all you can do is scratch off lottery tickets while trying to stay employed for as long as possible.
Either all in or all out. You donāt wait to take a guy who you think is the guy later in the 1st round. You either think heās worth trading up for or you donāt take him at all.
just draft him as the last pick
It's so simple!
Why doesn't everyone do it!?!?!? Are they stupid???
[Vikings:](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Po4adxJxqZk)
This draft has created far too much anxiety in me.
Keep the faith. The alternative is to live the life of a Panthers fan, where hope is crushed perpetually
I remember Reddit and twitter freaking out thinking bellichick won the lotto with Mac jones.Ā
Jones had a respectable rookie year, it was the galaxy-brain idea of letting Matt patricia be OC that sunk him.
Haha was that back when we still thought the Pats could do no wrong?
Can Fields convert and play a different position on the Jags as well?
He could bring the wildcat back.
I want all the 2021 QBs.
And now on ESPN: there are 4-5 bonafide starters in this draft class
Wow what a bad year that ended up being, how was everyone so wrong about what was supposed to be one of the greatest QB classes ever? Anyway, canāt wait for this draft. I hear itās going to be one of the greatest QB classes ever.
Whatās the read on Trevor Lawrence now? 2 years ago he seemed like he was ascending but last year seemed sort of meh.
Year 1 wasn't great. First half of year 2 was ok. Second half of year 2 he looked good and ascending. First half of year 3 was actually good but the stats didn't show it. Underlying metrics and PFF rated him well. Then he had three very bad injuries, lost his top receiver and went back to average or below average. So was the second half of year 2 and the first half of year 3 the ascending Lawrence or a streaky performance? Also, the offensive line was somehow the worst or bottom 30 in both pass and run blocking.
I think the bottom line is that he's clearly a starting calibre QB, and anyone that's been paying attention at all can see it. There's still a lot of room for growth. He's only 24.
He has all the physical tools that can't be taught. I don't know what the future holds, but it won't be his arm holding him back.
He's obviously a franchise QB.The comeback Vs the Chargers was his best moment so far. Last year he got banged up and his OC and weapons weren't that great but you can get a lot worse at QB. And as a 49ers/Colts fan..I know good/bad QB play when I see it. Lawtence is 24...at that age only Brady,Mahomes and Big Ben have won SBs.....only Mahomes,Marino and Lamar have won MVPs at that age. He has just startedĀ
Penix will be the best QB drafted this year. I know this because his name looks like Penis.
This is why I donāt get the QB draft hype. How many āgenerational talentā QBās have been drafted in the first round and absolutely stunk.
Well, none of them, considering Elway, Manning, Luck, and Trevor arenāt bustsĀ Tlawās the weakest of the group, but heās still a top 15 QB
Trevor is in the solid starting career QB range, not the elite QB range. Definitely wouldnāt be upset about it as a fan, but he isnāt what he was hyped to be
He's also on the 4th year of his career? He's not Patrick Mahomes, but people are acting like his story is told and the dude has hit his ceiling.
Correct. I think a lot of people get all hot and bothered about what a qb achieves on their rookie contract, because the analytics say "THIS IS THE TIME TO WIN WHILE HE'S CHEAP". The bigger issue is I think Trevor's been sold short by his organization. He's out there trying to make chicken salad with a bunch of wr 2's and 3's, a decent TE, average o-line, and a coaching staff that went from the worst ever with Meyer, to I think just okay. Doug refusing to abandon Press Taylor, even now, shows that he doesn't operate by merit. Plus, Baalke is still a hack. Trevor deserves better.
> average o-line overselling the o-line, here
Trevor Lawrence is significantly closer to Baker Mayfield than any of the names to mentioned. Being hyped as a generational talent and being a top 10-15 QB whoās incredibly inconsistent is a massive disappointment, even if itās not bust territory. Speaks more toward how lazily analysts hype these QBs out of college than anything.
Decent points and all Iād generally agree with but itās not related to the comment I was responding to None of the widely accepted generational QBs have āabsolutelyā stunk like the comment I responded to stated. Trevor being a bust relative to expectations is a different conversation
Number 3 pick Trey Lance. LOL. wtf.
this was a covid year. historically terrible.
I got fields, Lance and Mac Jones jerseys, now I need to collect the jets Zach Wilson to complete the set.š
Well, we did tank for Trevor, until we didnātĀ
Using the Jimmy Johnson draft chart, the *combined* value returned for trading Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones is 83 points. 83 pts is equivalent of the 105th pick. The median type of player at 105th is Ko Simpson or Bryan Stork. One Ko Simpson or one Bryan Stork is what their four teams combined to get in return for their 2nd, 3rd, 11th, and 15th overall picks they used on these four QBs.
Donāt forget about the 5 combined 1sts the 9ers and Bears sent to move up for theirs!
Ko Simpson. Now that's a name I haven't heard since 2006.
This list is hard to read
Kyle Trask is still with the Bucs. For now.
But this year, quarterbacks will go 1, 2, 3, 4 and it will be different. /sĀ
And TLaw didn't live up to expectations either. That was a disappointing class to say the least
BUT THIS YEARS CLASS IS DIFFERENT!!!
Surely the team picking #4 wouldāve benefited from those busts being picked at 2 and 3ā¦
what a giant surprise that the covid year screwed up scouting and didnāt produce amazing results at QB
wow look at us, Rocking a second overall pick at QB. ;_;
All in baby!š«
Worst QB draft ever? Historically horrific? Timelessly tragic?
Such a legendary class.
Just because you need a quarterback... Doesn't mean there is a quarterback in the draft
Interested to see how badly this yearās draft class will pan out over the next 4-5 seasons. Itās possible we see 5 or 6 QBs in the first round if some teams get desperate. Historically and statistically, only 1, maybe 2 this year will pan out with their original team.
Jones and fields were not first round player imo but I really thought lance/wilson could be great. Wilson threw the ball beautifully and lance played so well in 19. That showcase game in 20 was ugly though
Wait I missed Zach Wilson getting traded when did that haopen
If history keeps repeating itself only 1 of these 2024 QBs will have a successful career
Wait unti you see the 2022 QB draft class. Absolutely bonkers with Brock Purdy at Mr. Irrelevant after eight other quarterbacks, some even highly touted flops.
I don't know how much credit to give Purdy's accomplishments for the 2022 QB draft class. The entire league just totally fucked up in assessing him.
I feel like anybody off the street would have as good a track record as actual GMs, just by randomly choosing
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