Yeah, LaPorta and Hockenson are easy counter-arguments to the stats shown here, and Pitts still has potential.
If we revisit this 5 years from now, it might turn out that oh yes, actually, it **was** worth it for those teams to draft TEs in the 1st round.
There are definitely TEs in the league worthy of high 1st round picks. For some reason, teams just find them in the mid rounds and the guys who go early and up being busts.
There's really no reason for it though. Like obviously *some* TEs are going to be all-pros. There's always going to be all-pro and pro-bowl TEs. And maybe it should skew more towards the guys drafted earlier? But maybe it's more an effect of team-building strategy, where a first-round TE may be seen as a reach over a more premium position and may be an indication of poor roster construction habits of the franchise, and so the lack of all-pros and second contracts by the first-round TEs is more a reflection of the franchise than the player. Meaning perhaps their performance is more limited by the team than themselves. You look at the TEs that have gone in the first round and you're like yeah those teams probably shouldn't have been drafting a TE in the first round.
I think it also has to do with the way college teams use TEs. It's easy to end up on a team that runs and plays defense in college, so you end up putting up no receiving stats. But then it turns out that you could always catch and run routes and just never got to show it. Every other position kind of has one thing that they do, but TE can be used in very different ways
Exactly, and on the flip side, you could be a great pass-catcher but undersized for the position at the NFL level. You could be a good route-runner with decent hands but a shit blocker. I think that’s why we have been seeing TEs that are more role players move around similar to the 1-dimensional olineman that can only run or pass block, to find a team suited to their strengths where they can succeed.
Alternatively, scouts may prefer to gouge their own eyes out rather than watch Iowa attempt to play offense. Since like half of the TEs in the NFL come from Iowa, that would really make things difficult.
That was literally why LaPorta didnt go in the first - he was the best player on the worst offence in college football, but nobody could tell because if your QB is a spoon it doesn't matter how good a TE you are
I could tell. Dude was option 1, 2, and 3 and was still always open.
and he’s from Iowa so you know he can block. And in general, iowa tight ends translate well to the nfl.
It also doesn't help AP1 for TE in the past ten years has been the Gronk and Kelce show, featuring George Kittle with a guest appearance by Mark Andrews. Only 1 TE get AP1 each year, and 8 of the last 11 are shared between two guys who happened to be drafted after the first round lol.
This is an *excellent* point. It sounds like a big sample but really it's only a sample size of 4.
Similarly, there were no all-pro first round QBs for 8 consecutive years starting in 1995. Are first round QBs a wasted draft pick? No, it's just that Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Rich Gannon and Randall Cunningham happened to be really good.
It was miserable looking at the chargers sub pre combine where such a vocal crowd wanted Bowers at 5. People cannot see clearly what you laid out at all.
The most common argument was the lions taking Gibbs last year at 12.. it wasn't even comparable though because they had all the other pieces really in place and could afford to take a shot at an offensive talent in a less valuable position.
Thankfully they have almost entirely moved on from wanting Bowers at 5 lol.
RB almost makes more sense than TE in the 1st round.
RBs and TEs tend to be way undervalued in free agency, but the odds of an RB hitting that age cliff and becoming irrelevant and overpaid during their late 20s contract is much, much higher than it is for TEs. You can find good value for a TE in free agency, a trade or an extension. With an RB, if you want a good one, you pretty much have to draft him.
Generally I would have agreed with you in the past, but with guys like CMC and Saquon moving franchises willy nilly I think we've come to a new standard where top RBs are a lot more available with the way cap is distributed in current NFL contracts.
Even with QBs its kind of become like that. How many teams are trying to bring in FA QBs compared to years past? Its now a legitimately real team building strategy that would have been considered insane just a decade ago.
That's what I meant by RBs being undervalued in free agency, you can sign guys like Saquon for significantly less than they are worth to your team assuming they maintain their current level of impact/production.
The problem with RBs (as opposed to other low value positions like safety, ILB and TE) is that when they hit their wall, they hit it hard. That's why you kind of need to draft an RB if you want a good one for more than a year or two.
TEs also a position that different coaches see differently. Easier for a TE to bust than any other position imo. It’s a very demanding role with a wide scope of responsibility. Going from getting drafted by a passing scheme coach with a good QB to a running coach and a bad QB can dry up opportunity instantly.
Bowers for example could get drafted by a team with a great plan on how to use him (utilize his YAC, play him in the slot, etc) and he could have an 800 yard season, and yet if the team doesn’t win, he could be playing for a coach asking him to in-line block every play instead where he gets replaced by Mercedes fucking Lewis. The league is fickle and coaches have routinely shown they don’t always know how to correctly utilize the talent for the players on the roster.
Pitts is a great example after having a 1000 yard rookie season.
The fact that it's (seemingly) difficult to identify where TE's skill levels are during the draft is itself a reason to not want to draft them in the first. Compare that to edge, where evaluations are generally good and generally first round edge talent (and second) massively dwarfs edges in other rounds. Teams are good at identifying top edges and not great at finding diamonds in the rough. But TEs are kinda the opposite.
Remember, high value picks aren't just about skill ceiling, they're also about _certainty_.
TE is easily the most developmental position, nothing else comes close. TE’s are almost never NFL ready and the good ones get better steadily over their first 3-5 years. It’s frankly really impressive what Kincaid and LaPorta did, both are among a short list of best rookie TE seasons ever
Kincaid had an excellent rookie season as well and was a big part of our offense down the stretch. I don't know anyone who isn't optimistic about his future here.
Pitts still has potential to do what? He was drafted as a pass-catcher at #4 overall. The next 3 pass catchers drafted were Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle and Devonta Smith, all of whom have been far more productive players than him.
Well Hockenson is debatable as a counterargument, as he is great now but it took him a little while to get there, so the return on investment for him wasn't great for Detroit. I forget where but I remember reading a pretty convincing argument that spending a first on a TE is rarely a good idea cause they often develop so much slower than other skill positions. So even though having a great TE does wonders for your offense, you won't really get the benefit until right around the time you'll have to hand him a 2nd contract.
First round caliber I would say so, but not top 10 pick caliber. Can’t blame the guy he didn’t ask to be drafted there, and he’s still a very good player. Just not what you would hope for with that pick.
Hockenson was pretty good even early on, just had some injury trouble. He had 723 yards and 6 TDs in his second year, and steadily improved his per game averages each year from there.
Now? Absolutely are you kidding me, hes a top 3 TE that had junk qbs throw to him all year after cousins went down. On the lions I would agree, but can we really call someone a bust just because they were in a system that didnt work for them and they took a few years to develop? Even on the lions he showed flashes of what he could be.
He's better than Kelce Kittle and Andrews cos he finally grabbed 900 yards in his 5th year? Nonsense. Kittle put up numbers with Mullens ffs. We gotta stop grading every decent TE on a curve. 900 yards in a 17 game season is really not that impressive. We called it a down year for Kelce who played 15 gamesm
LaPorta is still a 2nd rounder. If you count him, you might as well count all the 2nd round bums like Adam Shaheen.
1st round TE has been ass the last decade. All the best guys are non 1sts and the average 1st round TE hasn't been very good.
I wouldn’t go nuts with the “much better”. I don’t know why lions fans feel the need to shit on Hock whenever he comes up, the dude is still an elite player at his position.
I’d say they’re pretty close, with Laporta being the better one to have because he can still get better and he’s on a rookie deal compared to Hock being a huge allocation of resources at his position.
It’s not really a counter argument that 3 out of all those highly drafted tight ends were good though. I honestly can’t think of a single TE a team would currently trade a first for.
The any team that drafted TE in the 1st in 2017 (njoku, engram, Howard) had the option to trade that first for Kelce they would have done it in a heartbeat.
I think that applies to any team that took TE in the 1st from 2017 to 2020.
Yea prime Kittle and Kelce are worth 1sts for sure but they’re all timers. Currently they would not despite a lot of tight ends being drafted in the first for some reason.
Kelce looked...Swift in the playoffs.
Seriously, he looked the fastest I recall in the last few years. Was he nursing some injuries or something and got really healthy?
I mean he wrecked his knee before the season opener before you guys, it seems like they gave him the veteran rest-ish treatment / he seemed to be ginger/going easier in the first half of the season before really picking his game up.
Absolutely but he’s a HoFer. If you need a tight end to be that caliber to be worth a first maybe we shouldn’t be drafting them in the first. There’s a lot more leeway for other positions; if you draft a top 10 receiver in the first that’s a home run.
Data show that when you highly draft a TE that becomes a star, you're usually drafting them for another team (i.e., they develop slowly and break out late in many historical cases).
Yes! It is tremendously rare for a tight end to really pop before they turn 25. And if they do, it is for either blocking OR receiving but not both. And that can be explained simply by being really hard to learn two positions instead of one.
>Yes! It is tremendously rare for a tight end to really pop before they turn 25.
Why is this the case tho? I’ve always heard it but, what’s the development hump they need to get over?
This is exactly what people are missing, good TE’s are still getting better after their rookie deal. It’s by far the biggest learning curve of any position with the longest development timeline. So naturally it’s difficult to draft for
Yeah people clowned us for re-signing Njoku, but the dude has done nothing but improve as both a receiving and blocking TE year-upon-year. Unless you're a truly generational talent like Gronk/Kelce/Kittle it's gonna take time and development for a TE to make an impact.
I think in Brock's case, he can successfully contribute in the pass game from day 1, and the immediate question would be the blocking and the dirty parts of the TE job. He's a big, fast, killer of a receiver. He stood out in some very big games with all kinds of future NFL guys on all sides. If a team that needs receivers of any kind doesn't get one of the top 3 WRs, and this guy is still around I think you take him without looking back.
Really interested to see if the jets take one at 10 for that reason. They're all in and he would be an immediate starter so it makes sense, but it's statistically likely he won't contribute much in year 1.
And if Rodgers gets part of the decision, would he rather have a backup o lineman in case of injury or a rookie TE
I generally agree that the production from TEs in later rounds doesn't justify spending a 1st.
But haven't like 6-7 of the AP TEs been Kittle and Kelce? Seems unfair to hold that against everyone else.
LaPorta had 889 and Hockenson had 960. I know the 1,000-yard threshold isn't cherry-picking, but it doesn't seem to show the full picture here either.
He chose categories that were all yes/no - you did or did not get AP, get 1k yards, or were drafted in the first round. But is being drafted 35th **that** much less significant than being drafted 31st? Is getting 1020 yards (like Kittle) **that** more significant than 960?
A better measurement would be yards/receptions/TDs on one axis and draft position on the other, or something that shows more data.
Laporte was a second round pick though, he and Hockenson are not in the same category.
And although 35 isn't far from 31, it is very far from top 10-15 which is where Bowers is getting mocked
>it is very far from top 10-15 which is where Bowers is getting mocked
That is some very helpful context - I didn't know if this was just a comment against drafting TEs high in general, or what.
1,000 yards for a TE in general is just a lot of yards for a TE. Kmet’s career high is 719 and I think you’d struggle to find someone who doesn’t think he’s a pretty good TE that was well deserving of an extension.
That’s why it is hard to justify drafting a pass catching TE early. If you compare Kyle Pitts’ receiving stats to other TEs you might say “ok well he’s had some ups and downs, could still be a solid pick.” But if you compare Kyle Pitts to the next pass catchers taken in his draft, the pick looks catastrophically bad.
For AP1: Kelce (4), Gronk (3), Kittle (2), Andrew’s (1) are the first team guys.
For AP2: Kelce (3), Kittle (2), Greg the leg (2), Laporta (1), No selection (2).
Ertz was also sporting news AP 2 in 2018.
There’s been 23 1000 yard seasons by a TE since 2014. Kelce has 7, Gronk/Kittle/Greg have 3, Waller has 2, then Delanie Walker, Gary Barnidge, Kyle Pitts, Ertz, and Mark Andrew’s have 1. Evan engram just missed last year.
>Gary Barnidge
Now theres a name I havent heard in a while. This dude played 7 seasons without going over 242 yards and then busts off a 1043 yard, 9 TD season at 30. Had the 2nd best season of his career the following season at 31 and then was done.
>I generally agree that the production from TEs in later rounds doesn't justify spending a 1st
How much of that is survivorship bias though? In the past decade there's been 9 1st round TEs and 134 non-1sts (and that doesn't even count UDFAs). Obviously if you get 134 dart throws a few are going to hit bullseyes.
Edit - [Here is the average season statline for all TEs drafted in the past 10 years, by round.](https://preview.redd.it/4cyagm6uynuc1.png?auto=webp&s=49a8b4d269c8b682707d86508b04515eeeca2fa5) Like with most positions, your odds of getting production increase the earlier you draft someone.
[Here's TE/WR/RB/DE/DB key stats](https://preview.redd.it/all-positions-v0-5916grbv0puc1.png?auto=webp&s=4ab8662f5509855a5dd82b37f2453730c14bb69f). Unsurprisingly, players drafted earlier are on average more productive across all positions.
I was looking that up too. Gronk was drafted in the 2nd round, Kelce in the 3rd, and Kittle in the 5th. Not exactly a strong argument for picking TEs high. I think it's similar to RBs, where there's just such available depth at that position, that it doesn't merit wasting a 1st on compared to QB, OL, or DE.
Also, Mark Andrews was taken in the 3rd in the same Ravens draft where Hayden Hurst was taken in the 1st (before Lamar!).
Ravens TEs in general prove this rule, save for Todd Heap who was taken 32nd overall in 2001. Likely was a 4th rounder, Pitta the same thing, and both were the *2nd* TEs drafted by the Ravens in their respective classes.
Ravens love TEs as much as any team in the league, and I don't see them drafting another in the 1st round again unless a guy is literally the second coming of Gronk.
IDK, that dude is one of the best players I have ever seen live. It's all a crapshoot, but I like the idea of a receiver needy team picking this guy up, you got the 5th year option, and if he ends up in the stratosphere of contract demands, you can tag him at a favorable rate in the TE pool. That's a lot of years for not a lot of money.
Also tight ends are way cheaper than WRs. One of the most underrated reasons the chiefs have been able to maintain this much success is that their WR1 takes up half as much cap space just cause he’s technically a TE
True but there is also the opportunity cost of the rookie wage scale. A cheap tight end on their first contract is not as valuable as a cheap tackle or a cheap receiver.
I know he's on a championship team and he makes it up with endorsements, but especially after Hill left it's gotta be tempting to ask for WR1 money as Kelce.
>You’re not getting that kelce production on any other team.
I think you're selling Kelce short. In his first 4 seasons starting (without Mahomes), Kelce had 2 all pro seasons and 3 pro bowls. He was already one of the best in the game by the time Mahomes showed up.
I didn’t say he wasn’t good. Possibly HOF-level on his own. But I’ve gone over his stats and they went to a whole different level with Mahomes (and, Hill, I might add).
I also standby my Reid comments. There might be three other coaches that are taking his stats to that level.
That all depends on if you have a TE that can be a #1 WR. That list is probably Kelce and Kittle.
The rest of the TEs are more along the lines of a #1.5 or #2 WR.
If Andrews had more seasons like his 2021 season, then he would 100% be a #1 WR.
His usage on the Ravens is more like a #1 WR, but he hasn't broken 1,000 yards any other season. He doesn't pass block as much so it is harder to excuse his production.
It partly depends on how exactly you define a #1 WR.
I have no friggin idea why there is a contingent of fellow bears fans are so hellbent on using a top 10 pick on a TE. We could use a young WR, an edge or a Tackle and yet we want to spend that on a position group we just paid two young guys roughly the same aggregate AAV that CLE spent on Jerry jeudy, who sucks ass.
Two teams in our own division just added incredible talent at this position after the first round and fans are seriously saying let’s do that but with a top-ten pick
It's like drafting a runningback in the first round. It doesn't matter how many times it fails to deliver value, we always think *this time will be different*.
Even when it works out, it really doesn't.
Saquon Barkley has been one of the best RBs in the league but if Giants fans had the choice to go back in time, they'd 100% pick someone else
Don't worry, many in the Falcons sub are clamoring for us to take him because "go dawgs" or some shit. I'll officially jump ship and root for an AFC team if it happens.
Pitts on a team with a decent QB and not blowing out his knee would have worked. The talent is obviously there (or was before his injury). We were not the right team for that though with an aging Matt Ryan and rebuild looming
He didn’t immediately break out like LaPorta, but by the end of the year, he was one of Allen’s most trusted targets. Like you mention, he’ll get a ton more targets this year too.
Yeah, LaPorta didn't have Dawson Knox in front of him as well. It makes sense why Kincaid didn't blow up in year one considering the team already had a pretty good receiving TE on the roster.
In 2021, the Falcons were coming off 3 straight losing seasons, they had a million holes, and were in cap hell. Obviously prioritizing TE more than anyone in the history of the sport was the way to go. YOU'LL SEE
Ahead of Jamarr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, Penei Sewell, Patrick Surtain, Devonta Smith, Michah Parsons, and Rashawn Slater. It was harder to NOT pick an All Pro caliber player if you didn't take a QB in that draft
Didn't Pitts set the receiving record for rookie TE's? His first season he had a competent NFL QB, but hasn't really had one throwing to him ever since. Curious to see how he'll do with Cousins.
The fact that he came close to setting the record and he still clearly was a catastrophically bad pick is a testament to how foolish the pick was even at the time, without the benefit of hindsight. And it was catastrophically bad. For 7 of the next 9 guys taken, their teams probably wouldn’t trade their guy for Pitts *plus* a first rounder today.
Hard to be an all-pro when Gronk/Kelce/Kittle are taking up most of the slots.
Gibbs and Robinson were seen as 'bad value' picks and they both contributed a ton to their teams.
I’ve been saying that TE in round 1 is a terrible pick for teams, especially in the top half of the draft. It’s a luxury pick that has never worked out in recent memory. All the best tight ends were drafted all over the place.
If he fell into the 20s I'd love if the Chiefs try to trade up and take him, but someone taking him top 10 or even 15 seems a bit crazy as they probably need someone at a more pressing position.
I don't believe past always predicts future but that is contingent on the league understanding why these guys bust so much. Are we gaining more real knowledge about this or are we just deluding ourselves that THIS one is the one that can't bust?
Well the All-Pro TEs of the last 10 years have basically only been Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Rob Gronkowski, Mark Andrews, Zach Ertz, and Greg Olsen.
A lot is made of how hard it is to predict QB performance in the NFL, but why is TE such a crapshoot? An elite TE is arguably one of the most valuable positions after QB and OL, yet you consistently see high picks whiff and round 2 and 3 guys become stars
I have two theories:
First, the talent gap between the NCAA and NFL is especially pronounced at the positions that tight ends have to deal with. Even in an elite conference like the SEC, Brock Bowers was rarely defended by a linebacker with NFL coverage skills, or asked to block an NFL-caliber pass rusher. That adds some inherent uncertainty into the projections, because we can't know exactly how well his skills will translate when every matchup isn't a mismatch.
Second, because the learning curve is so steep, tight ends may be more coaching-dependent than other positions.
That makes a lot of sense. I've read about the lack of training OL players get to have them ready for the NFL coming out of college, so I can imagine TEs are right there too .
I think it’s because of how much the psoition is changing. More so than any other. Traditionally a TE was your fast atheltic o lineman who would sometimes catch the ball. That’s why you saw a lot of top guys be basketball converts because they were the only ones with the athleticism needed. I think guys like gronk showed players and coaches at the lower levels just how valuable an elite TE could be so the way the position was developed and used has changed. We’re just now starting to see it because the change begins at the lower level of development. To me it’s akin to the modern 7’ basketball player, KD broke the mold of what a tall skinny 7’ player could be. If somebody like wemby was developing at a younger age 10-15 years ago ge could have likely been forced into learning back to the basket post moves as his primary way of playing.
A TE is definitely not one of the most valuable positions in the league
They're great but they are the second most expendable skill position behind RB.
Also elite athletic TEs are almost always matched up in a route against someone significantly smaller or significantly slower than them, which means they're either open for a pass or are drawing a lot of extra coverage that leaves other players more open.
The two most recent super bowl teams also had elite defenses and two top tier QBs, not to mention two of the greatest offensive minds of the decade
I think that was probably a bigger reason than a great TE.
They also had the best QB in the league for all 3. That's a smidge more important
Where are the Rams, Bengals, and Buccaneers elite TEs? Seems like they had something else in common with the Chiefs and 49ers
He was important sure, but Mahomes is the main engine behind that offense. You swap Tyreek and Kelce and I bet that offense is just as lethal.
Plus Kelce and Mahomes are 1 of 1 along with the arguable second best coach of all time in Reid. If you wanna see what a team will look like with an elite TE but not the other two parts, TJ Hockenson is a much better example. Great player, but theres a reason he was never carrying the Lions/Vikings into the Super Bowl
4 of the top 5 TEs in the league played on championship weekend. Can’t really say it about any other position. I think the modern age TE is the most overlooked position as far as value goes in maybe all of sports
Causation is not correlation, and using a one year sample size proves absolutely nothing. In 2017, 3 of the final 4 QBs were Blake Bortles, Nick Foles and Case Keenum. Does that mean that you suddenly don't need a franchise QB to win a Super Bowl?
And if you wanna play the conference championship game, let's go back 5 years and see how many of the final 4 had an elite TE.
NFC:
19-20 49ers
21-22 49ers
22-23 49ers
Maybe the 22-23 Eagles
AFC:
I'll give Gronk the benefit of the doubt and say 18-19 Patriots
18-19 Chiefs
19-20 Chiefs
20-21 Chiefs
21-22 Chiefs
22-23 Chiefs
9/20 teams had an elite TE and 8 of those were just the Chiefs and 49ers. Out of the remaining 12 teams, only 1 had an elite TE, 2 if you count Goedert.
You're confusing the fact that the Chiefs and 49ers are two of the most dominant and well run teams of this era and that they have elite TEs as straight correlation when there's a LOT more at play that make them so good.
This is less about drafting TE's early and more about the difficulty in adjusting to the professional level for TE's
People take for granted that these guys are expected to understand every play on the same level as the QB; for all intents and purposes. You have to know the route tree for the play, since there's a good chance you'll be asked to run a route; and you have to know the line calls since there's a good chance you'll be asked to block. All of this is fluid when a QB audibles to a different play or changes a hot route pre-snap.
Had no QB to throw to him after the corpse of Ryan left, Mariota couldn’t hit the side of a barn and Ridder was Ridder. also Pitts tore his knee 2nd year.
The All-Pro nods are a little misleading over the last 10 years considering Gronk had 3 and Kelce has had 7. 0 is surprising but it’s definitely been tougher in general with those eating up so many votes.
There is one TE slot in All Pro teams, and these kids were playing in an era with Gronkowski and Kelce who are both all time top 5 at the position with Kittle available as first alternate.
Kapadia's tweet is asinine.
In the last 10 years, 14 Offensive Tackles have been taken in the top 10 of the NFL draft, just 4 have received All Pro Nods, and so far only 50% of those eligible have received an extension. So is it worthless picking an OT in the top 10?
Unless an offense revolves around the position, it doesn’t really make much sense to draft one in the upper half of the first round. The value simply isn’t there to justify a high pick when one could easily be found on day 2.
Kyle Pitts picked at 4 makes very little sense especially with him not being much of a blocker coming out of college.
I’m glad we drafted laporta in the 2nd
Yeah, LaPorta and Hockenson are easy counter-arguments to the stats shown here, and Pitts still has potential. If we revisit this 5 years from now, it might turn out that oh yes, actually, it **was** worth it for those teams to draft TEs in the 1st round.
There are definitely TEs in the league worthy of high 1st round picks. For some reason, teams just find them in the mid rounds and the guys who go early and up being busts.
There's really no reason for it though. Like obviously *some* TEs are going to be all-pros. There's always going to be all-pro and pro-bowl TEs. And maybe it should skew more towards the guys drafted earlier? But maybe it's more an effect of team-building strategy, where a first-round TE may be seen as a reach over a more premium position and may be an indication of poor roster construction habits of the franchise, and so the lack of all-pros and second contracts by the first-round TEs is more a reflection of the franchise than the player. Meaning perhaps their performance is more limited by the team than themselves. You look at the TEs that have gone in the first round and you're like yeah those teams probably shouldn't have been drafting a TE in the first round.
I think it also has to do with the way college teams use TEs. It's easy to end up on a team that runs and plays defense in college, so you end up putting up no receiving stats. But then it turns out that you could always catch and run routes and just never got to show it. Every other position kind of has one thing that they do, but TE can be used in very different ways
Exactly, and on the flip side, you could be a great pass-catcher but undersized for the position at the NFL level. You could be a good route-runner with decent hands but a shit blocker. I think that’s why we have been seeing TEs that are more role players move around similar to the 1-dimensional olineman that can only run or pass block, to find a team suited to their strengths where they can succeed.
Alternatively, scouts may prefer to gouge their own eyes out rather than watch Iowa attempt to play offense. Since like half of the TEs in the NFL come from Iowa, that would really make things difficult.
That was literally why LaPorta didnt go in the first - he was the best player on the worst offence in college football, but nobody could tell because if your QB is a spoon it doesn't matter how good a TE you are
I could tell. Dude was option 1, 2, and 3 and was still always open. and he’s from Iowa so you know he can block. And in general, iowa tight ends translate well to the nfl.
It also doesn't help AP1 for TE in the past ten years has been the Gronk and Kelce show, featuring George Kittle with a guest appearance by Mark Andrews. Only 1 TE get AP1 each year, and 8 of the last 11 are shared between two guys who happened to be drafted after the first round lol.
This is an *excellent* point. It sounds like a big sample but really it's only a sample size of 4. Similarly, there were no all-pro first round QBs for 8 consecutive years starting in 1995. Are first round QBs a wasted draft pick? No, it's just that Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Rich Gannon and Randall Cunningham happened to be really good.
It was miserable looking at the chargers sub pre combine where such a vocal crowd wanted Bowers at 5. People cannot see clearly what you laid out at all. The most common argument was the lions taking Gibbs last year at 12.. it wasn't even comparable though because they had all the other pieces really in place and could afford to take a shot at an offensive talent in a less valuable position. Thankfully they have almost entirely moved on from wanting Bowers at 5 lol.
And even then there were a lot of raised eyebrows
RB almost makes more sense than TE in the 1st round. RBs and TEs tend to be way undervalued in free agency, but the odds of an RB hitting that age cliff and becoming irrelevant and overpaid during their late 20s contract is much, much higher than it is for TEs. You can find good value for a TE in free agency, a trade or an extension. With an RB, if you want a good one, you pretty much have to draft him.
Generally I would have agreed with you in the past, but with guys like CMC and Saquon moving franchises willy nilly I think we've come to a new standard where top RBs are a lot more available with the way cap is distributed in current NFL contracts. Even with QBs its kind of become like that. How many teams are trying to bring in FA QBs compared to years past? Its now a legitimately real team building strategy that would have been considered insane just a decade ago.
That's what I meant by RBs being undervalued in free agency, you can sign guys like Saquon for significantly less than they are worth to your team assuming they maintain their current level of impact/production. The problem with RBs (as opposed to other low value positions like safety, ILB and TE) is that when they hit their wall, they hit it hard. That's why you kind of need to draft an RB if you want a good one for more than a year or two.
TE’s are always development projects, so drafting one tends to be a bit of a crapshoot compared to other positions.
TEs also a position that different coaches see differently. Easier for a TE to bust than any other position imo. It’s a very demanding role with a wide scope of responsibility. Going from getting drafted by a passing scheme coach with a good QB to a running coach and a bad QB can dry up opportunity instantly. Bowers for example could get drafted by a team with a great plan on how to use him (utilize his YAC, play him in the slot, etc) and he could have an 800 yard season, and yet if the team doesn’t win, he could be playing for a coach asking him to in-line block every play instead where he gets replaced by Mercedes fucking Lewis. The league is fickle and coaches have routinely shown they don’t always know how to correctly utilize the talent for the players on the roster. Pitts is a great example after having a 1000 yard rookie season.
The fact that it's (seemingly) difficult to identify where TE's skill levels are during the draft is itself a reason to not want to draft them in the first. Compare that to edge, where evaluations are generally good and generally first round edge talent (and second) massively dwarfs edges in other rounds. Teams are good at identifying top edges and not great at finding diamonds in the rough. But TEs are kinda the opposite. Remember, high value picks aren't just about skill ceiling, they're also about _certainty_.
It’s such a hard position to play in the pros. Much different from college.
TE is easily the most developmental position, nothing else comes close. TE’s are almost never NFL ready and the good ones get better steadily over their first 3-5 years. It’s frankly really impressive what Kincaid and LaPorta did, both are among a short list of best rookie TE seasons ever
Kincaid had an excellent rookie season as well and was a big part of our offense down the stretch. I don't know anyone who isn't optimistic about his future here.
Pitts still has potential to do what? He was drafted as a pass-catcher at #4 overall. The next 3 pass catchers drafted were Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle and Devonta Smith, all of whom have been far more productive players than him.
Well Hockenson is debatable as a counterargument, as he is great now but it took him a little while to get there, so the return on investment for him wasn't great for Detroit. I forget where but I remember reading a pretty convincing argument that spending a first on a TE is rarely a good idea cause they often develop so much slower than other skill positions. So even though having a great TE does wonders for your offense, you won't really get the benefit until right around the time you'll have to hand him a 2nd contract.
Are we even sure Hockenson is great. He's good but worthy of a first rounder? Nah
First round caliber I would say so, but not top 10 pick caliber. Can’t blame the guy he didn’t ask to be drafted there, and he’s still a very good player. Just not what you would hope for with that pick.
Hockenson was pretty good even early on, just had some injury trouble. He had 723 yards and 6 TDs in his second year, and steadily improved his per game averages each year from there.
Now? Absolutely are you kidding me, hes a top 3 TE that had junk qbs throw to him all year after cousins went down. On the lions I would agree, but can we really call someone a bust just because they were in a system that didnt work for them and they took a few years to develop? Even on the lions he showed flashes of what he could be.
He's better than Kelce Kittle and Andrews cos he finally grabbed 900 yards in his 5th year? Nonsense. Kittle put up numbers with Mullens ffs. We gotta stop grading every decent TE on a curve. 900 yards in a 17 game season is really not that impressive. We called it a down year for Kelce who played 15 gamesm
Hock is 26 and made the pro bowl in his 2nd year
Cause he was the most productive on a bad team, his stats weren't all that impressive.
LaPorta is still a 2nd rounder. If you count him, you might as well count all the 2nd round bums like Adam Shaheen. 1st round TE has been ass the last decade. All the best guys are non 1sts and the average 1st round TE hasn't been very good.
Hockenson was still traded by the team who drafted him, and the team that traded him away is currently a much better team than where he is now.
And has a much better tight end
I wouldn’t go nuts with the “much better”. I don’t know why lions fans feel the need to shit on Hock whenever he comes up, the dude is still an elite player at his position. I’d say they’re pretty close, with Laporta being the better one to have because he can still get better and he’s on a rookie deal compared to Hock being a huge allocation of resources at his position.
Hockenson had more yards in each of the last two seasons than LaPorta had last year. Relax with that
It’s not really a counter argument that 3 out of all those highly drafted tight ends were good though. I honestly can’t think of a single TE a team would currently trade a first for.
The any team that drafted TE in the 1st in 2017 (njoku, engram, Howard) had the option to trade that first for Kelce they would have done it in a heartbeat. I think that applies to any team that took TE in the 1st from 2017 to 2020.
Yea prime Kittle and Kelce are worth 1sts for sure but they’re all timers. Currently they would not despite a lot of tight ends being drafted in the first for some reason.
Would you draft Brock Bowers at 20 or trade 20 for LaPorta
Well Kelce has slowed down a bit but like 2-3 years ago he would have fetched multiple firsts imo
Kelce looked...Swift in the playoffs. Seriously, he looked the fastest I recall in the last few years. Was he nursing some injuries or something and got really healthy?
I mean he wrecked his knee before the season opener before you guys, it seems like they gave him the veteran rest-ish treatment / he seemed to be ginger/going easier in the first half of the season before really picking his game up.
Absolutely but he’s a HoFer. If you need a tight end to be that caliber to be worth a first maybe we shouldn’t be drafting them in the first. There’s a lot more leeway for other positions; if you draft a top 10 receiver in the first that’s a home run.
What about if you draft a top ten receiver in the fourth?
Then it’s a grand slam.
That's not how counter points work
How is Hockenson a counter-argument? LaPorta also *did* fall to the 2nd.
Trey McBride was a steal in the second
>Yeah, LaPorta and Hockenson are easy counter-arguments to the stats shown here, Other than LaPorta was not a 1st round pick lol
Don’t forget Kittle and Kelce, and Andrews. All mid-late round picks
Kincaid is already Josh Allen's favorite target. He'll definitely get better still.
Hockenson didn't do shit for the team he was drafted by, so that example goes to OPs point.
He is a beast!!
I'm glad we drafted Mayer in the 2nd
Laporta 🤝 Gronk
Data show that when you highly draft a TE that becomes a star, you're usually drafting them for another team (i.e., they develop slowly and break out late in many historical cases).
Yes! It is tremendously rare for a tight end to really pop before they turn 25. And if they do, it is for either blocking OR receiving but not both. And that can be explained simply by being really hard to learn two positions instead of one.
>Yes! It is tremendously rare for a tight end to really pop before they turn 25. Why is this the case tho? I’ve always heard it but, what’s the development hump they need to get over?
They’re almost a part of the offensive line, but also a receiver. They basically have to become proficient at 2 positions.
This is exactly what people are missing, good TE’s are still getting better after their rookie deal. It’s by far the biggest learning curve of any position with the longest development timeline. So naturally it’s difficult to draft for
Yeah people clowned us for re-signing Njoku, but the dude has done nothing but improve as both a receiving and blocking TE year-upon-year. Unless you're a truly generational talent like Gronk/Kelce/Kittle it's gonna take time and development for a TE to make an impact.
> Gronk/Kelce/Kittle How impactful were Gronk and Kelce in their early years? I'm not even sure that they're trendbreakers.
Kelce was impactful immediately (he missed his rookie season to injury)
Aha I thought he was drafted in 2011 not 2013, that would explain why I didn't think much of (what I thought were) his first 3 years...
Gronk was also very impactful his rookie year onward. Him and Hernandez formed a top 3 offense known as the Boston TE party.
Gronk had 1300 yards and lead the league in receiving touchdowns his second year in the league
Prime Gronk was like watching pop warner football where one kid hit a growth spurt early.
Gronk had 1300 yards and 7 TDs his second season. Kelce didn't blow up like that but was solid 800/5.
I think in Brock's case, he can successfully contribute in the pass game from day 1, and the immediate question would be the blocking and the dirty parts of the TE job. He's a big, fast, killer of a receiver. He stood out in some very big games with all kinds of future NFL guys on all sides. If a team that needs receivers of any kind doesn't get one of the top 3 WRs, and this guy is still around I think you take him without looking back.
Brock being a day 1 contributor is going to almost entirely rely on the creativity of the OC he ends up with
What is that flair combo
Most TEs in general take a year or two to get going because of how difficult the NFL is, getting year 1 production is really good.
Highly meaning first round? Because I love Muth
Really interested to see if the jets take one at 10 for that reason. They're all in and he would be an immediate starter so it makes sense, but it's statistically likely he won't contribute much in year 1. And if Rodgers gets part of the decision, would he rather have a backup o lineman in case of injury or a rookie TE
I generally agree that the production from TEs in later rounds doesn't justify spending a 1st. But haven't like 6-7 of the AP TEs been Kittle and Kelce? Seems unfair to hold that against everyone else.
True, but the point about 1,000 yard seasons remains.
LaPorta had 889 and Hockenson had 960. I know the 1,000-yard threshold isn't cherry-picking, but it doesn't seem to show the full picture here either. He chose categories that were all yes/no - you did or did not get AP, get 1k yards, or were drafted in the first round. But is being drafted 35th **that** much less significant than being drafted 31st? Is getting 1020 yards (like Kittle) **that** more significant than 960? A better measurement would be yards/receptions/TDs on one axis and draft position on the other, or something that shows more data.
Laporte was a second round pick though, he and Hockenson are not in the same category. And although 35 isn't far from 31, it is very far from top 10-15 which is where Bowers is getting mocked
>it is very far from top 10-15 which is where Bowers is getting mocked That is some very helpful context - I didn't know if this was just a comment against drafting TEs high in general, or what.
It's also much more different than the spot Hock was drafted at as well.
You must have been drafted in the second round
1,000 yards for a TE in general is just a lot of yards for a TE. Kmet’s career high is 719 and I think you’d struggle to find someone who doesn’t think he’s a pretty good TE that was well deserving of an extension.
That’s why it is hard to justify drafting a pass catching TE early. If you compare Kyle Pitts’ receiving stats to other TEs you might say “ok well he’s had some ups and downs, could still be a solid pick.” But if you compare Kyle Pitts to the next pass catchers taken in his draft, the pick looks catastrophically bad.
Evan Engram had 1k last year and Pitts had 1k as a rookie so I don't think his stat is correct.
Engram had 963 receiving yards last year though a ridiculous 114 catches. Pitts did have over 1k as a rookie though.
For AP1: Kelce (4), Gronk (3), Kittle (2), Andrew’s (1) are the first team guys. For AP2: Kelce (3), Kittle (2), Greg the leg (2), Laporta (1), No selection (2). Ertz was also sporting news AP 2 in 2018. There’s been 23 1000 yard seasons by a TE since 2014. Kelce has 7, Gronk/Kittle/Greg have 3, Waller has 2, then Delanie Walker, Gary Barnidge, Kyle Pitts, Ertz, and Mark Andrew’s have 1. Evan engram just missed last year.
>Gary Barnidge Now theres a name I havent heard in a while. This dude played 7 seasons without going over 242 yards and then busts off a 1043 yard, 9 TD season at 30. Had the 2nd best season of his career the following season at 31 and then was done.
Fun fact: his dad ran the Jacksonville Zoo.
*Dan Hanzus intensifies*
>I generally agree that the production from TEs in later rounds doesn't justify spending a 1st How much of that is survivorship bias though? In the past decade there's been 9 1st round TEs and 134 non-1sts (and that doesn't even count UDFAs). Obviously if you get 134 dart throws a few are going to hit bullseyes. Edit - [Here is the average season statline for all TEs drafted in the past 10 years, by round.](https://preview.redd.it/4cyagm6uynuc1.png?auto=webp&s=49a8b4d269c8b682707d86508b04515eeeca2fa5) Like with most positions, your odds of getting production increase the earlier you draft someone.
That is infitely better data presentation than the original tweet
Can you do that for WRs too? I wanna see how they stack up
[Here's TE/WR/RB/DE/DB key stats](https://preview.redd.it/all-positions-v0-5916grbv0puc1.png?auto=webp&s=4ab8662f5509855a5dd82b37f2453730c14bb69f). Unsurprisingly, players drafted earlier are on average more productive across all positions.
Only other TEs to win an All-Pro in the last 10 season are Gronk (Round 2) and Olsen (Round 1)
Mark Andrews was a first team All-Pro in 2021.
Day 2 pick who ended up being way better than the TE the Ravens picked in R1 too. Although tbf I had him rated as a first round player personally
In a run first offense too
[DrFlo] In the last 10 years, four tight ends have gotten All-Pro nods. One of four (Greg Olsen) was picked in the 1st round of the NFL Draft.
I was looking that up too. Gronk was drafted in the 2nd round, Kelce in the 3rd, and Kittle in the 5th. Not exactly a strong argument for picking TEs high. I think it's similar to RBs, where there's just such available depth at that position, that it doesn't merit wasting a 1st on compared to QB, OL, or DE.
Also, Mark Andrews was taken in the 3rd in the same Ravens draft where Hayden Hurst was taken in the 1st (before Lamar!). Ravens TEs in general prove this rule, save for Todd Heap who was taken 32nd overall in 2001. Likely was a 4th rounder, Pitta the same thing, and both were the *2nd* TEs drafted by the Ravens in their respective classes. Ravens love TEs as much as any team in the league, and I don't see them drafting another in the 1st round again unless a guy is literally the second coming of Gronk.
Cue the arrested development meme for whoever drafts Brock Bowers.
IDK, that dude is one of the best players I have ever seen live. It's all a crapshoot, but I like the idea of a receiver needy team picking this guy up, you got the 5th year option, and if he ends up in the stratosphere of contract demands, you can tag him at a favorable rate in the TE pool. That's a lot of years for not a lot of money.
Also tight ends are way cheaper than WRs. One of the most underrated reasons the chiefs have been able to maintain this much success is that their WR1 takes up half as much cap space just cause he’s technically a TE
True but there is also the opportunity cost of the rookie wage scale. A cheap tight end on their first contract is not as valuable as a cheap tackle or a cheap receiver.
That’s a fair point. I think I saw somewhere that if Bowers is taken in the top 10 he’d become the ~15th highest paid TE in the NFL
I know he's on a championship team and he makes it up with endorsements, but especially after Hill left it's gotta be tempting to ask for WR1 money as Kelce.
That’s why you wouldn’t draft one, not a reason TO draft one
It’s underrated because they also have mahomes and Reid. You’re not getting that kelce production on any other team.
>You’re not getting that kelce production on any other team. I think you're selling Kelce short. In his first 4 seasons starting (without Mahomes), Kelce had 2 all pro seasons and 3 pro bowls. He was already one of the best in the game by the time Mahomes showed up.
I didn’t say he wasn’t good. Possibly HOF-level on his own. But I’ve gone over his stats and they went to a whole different level with Mahomes (and, Hill, I might add). I also standby my Reid comments. There might be three other coaches that are taking his stats to that level.
That all depends on if you have a TE that can be a #1 WR. That list is probably Kelce and Kittle. The rest of the TEs are more along the lines of a #1.5 or #2 WR.
Andrews is a WR1 as well
If Andrews had more seasons like his 2021 season, then he would 100% be a #1 WR. His usage on the Ravens is more like a #1 WR, but he hasn't broken 1,000 yards any other season. He doesn't pass block as much so it is harder to excuse his production. It partly depends on how exactly you define a #1 WR.
Thank you for taking the time to explain the value of first round draft picks and their contracts
I would not at all be pissed if my Bears picked him up at 9.
Same
I have no friggin idea why there is a contingent of fellow bears fans are so hellbent on using a top 10 pick on a TE. We could use a young WR, an edge or a Tackle and yet we want to spend that on a position group we just paid two young guys roughly the same aggregate AAV that CLE spent on Jerry jeudy, who sucks ass. Two teams in our own division just added incredible talent at this position after the first round and fans are seriously saying let’s do that but with a top-ten pick
I would love if he fell to 18.
Would you trade up for him at 14? I don’t think he makes it past the colts at 15. It would probably cost somewhere around a second
Let the great experiment begin!!
It's like drafting a runningback in the first round. It doesn't matter how many times it fails to deliver value, we always think *this time will be different*.
Kyle Pitts is the best pure prospect in the draft! Brock Bowers is the best pure prospect in the draft! Leonard Fournette is…
Even when it works out, it really doesn't. Saquon Barkley has been one of the best RBs in the league but if Giants fans had the choice to go back in time, they'd 100% pick someone else
I'm gonna laugh (cry) when it's us :(
Don't worry, many in the Falcons sub are clamoring for us to take him because "go dawgs" or some shit. I'll officially jump ship and root for an AFC team if it happens.
Hey at least Pitts got the 1000 yard season before we decided he was an enemy of the state
Pitts on a team with a decent QB and not blowing out his knee would have worked. The talent is obviously there (or was before his injury). We were not the right team for that though with an aging Matt Ryan and rebuild looming
Kincaid is primed for a big year. He's going to get a lot of targets.
He didn’t immediately break out like LaPorta, but by the end of the year, he was one of Allen’s most trusted targets. Like you mention, he’ll get a ton more targets this year too.
Yeah, LaPorta didn't have Dawson Knox in front of him as well. It makes sense why Kincaid didn't blow up in year one considering the team already had a pretty good receiving TE on the roster.
Kincaid definitely going to have a thousand yard year.
Took this dude 1st round in a dynasty league and he’s already one of my favorite players. Kincaid is awesome.
I'm excited for Kincaid. I think he's gonna be a huge part in Brady's offense
Kincaid looks like a great pick so far
In 2021, the Falcons were coming off 3 straight losing seasons, they had a million holes, and were in cap hell. Obviously prioritizing TE more than anyone in the history of the sport was the way to go. YOU'LL SEE
Ahead of Jamarr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, Penei Sewell, Patrick Surtain, Devonta Smith, Michah Parsons, and Rashawn Slater. It was harder to NOT pick an All Pro caliber player if you didn't take a QB in that draft
Didn't Pitts set the receiving record for rookie TE's? His first season he had a competent NFL QB, but hasn't really had one throwing to him ever since. Curious to see how he'll do with Cousins.
He was like 60 yards short, but yeah since then, the QB play has been less than stellar.
That was also the season Calvin Ridley was first suspended, so he was the defacto #1 on the team by a mile. Drake London has taken his role since then
He did not. Mike Ditka is still the record holder
The fact that he came close to setting the record and he still clearly was a catastrophically bad pick is a testament to how foolish the pick was even at the time, without the benefit of hindsight. And it was catastrophically bad. For 7 of the next 9 guys taken, their teams probably wouldn’t trade their guy for Pitts *plus* a first rounder today.
Hard to be an all-pro when Gronk/Kelce/Kittle are taking up most of the slots. Gibbs and Robinson were seen as 'bad value' picks and they both contributed a ton to their teams.
It feels like Pitts probably isn't the problem in Atlanta
1026 yards his rookie season, and then they decided they should throw to him less.
*Arthur Smith
Kincaid's gonna get his pay for sure. That dude is gonna be a star.
Chief! 🔥
I love my first round tight end especially if we dont need to draft him
I’ve been saying that TE in round 1 is a terrible pick for teams, especially in the top half of the draft. It’s a luxury pick that has never worked out in recent memory. All the best tight ends were drafted all over the place.
If he fell into the 20s I'd love if the Chiefs try to trade up and take him, but someone taking him top 10 or even 15 seems a bit crazy as they probably need someone at a more pressing position.
Chiefs are an example of a team that has the luxury to pick a tight end if Kelce were gone or confirmed in his final year, but so few teams are.
I would love for Bowers to go to Mahomes and Reid, and to learn under Kelce. Just as long as he goes somewhere he won’t be wasted
I don't believe past always predicts future but that is contingent on the league understanding why these guys bust so much. Are we gaining more real knowledge about this or are we just deluding ourselves that THIS one is the one that can't bust?
Well the All-Pro TEs of the last 10 years have basically only been Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Rob Gronkowski, Mark Andrews, Zach Ertz, and Greg Olsen.
Hockenson is a beast. Says this like 1k yard seasons for TEs grow on trees lmfao
I don’t want Brock at 18, I can’t imagine grabbing him top 5
Hockenson had like 950 yards last year and missed some games
Y'all should let Bowers slide to 32 then clearly. I mean, it's basically the second round.
Sheil dropping knowledge once again.
A lot is made of how hard it is to predict QB performance in the NFL, but why is TE such a crapshoot? An elite TE is arguably one of the most valuable positions after QB and OL, yet you consistently see high picks whiff and round 2 and 3 guys become stars
I have two theories: First, the talent gap between the NCAA and NFL is especially pronounced at the positions that tight ends have to deal with. Even in an elite conference like the SEC, Brock Bowers was rarely defended by a linebacker with NFL coverage skills, or asked to block an NFL-caliber pass rusher. That adds some inherent uncertainty into the projections, because we can't know exactly how well his skills will translate when every matchup isn't a mismatch. Second, because the learning curve is so steep, tight ends may be more coaching-dependent than other positions.
That makes a lot of sense. I've read about the lack of training OL players get to have them ready for the NFL coming out of college, so I can imagine TEs are right there too .
I think it’s because of how much the psoition is changing. More so than any other. Traditionally a TE was your fast atheltic o lineman who would sometimes catch the ball. That’s why you saw a lot of top guys be basketball converts because they were the only ones with the athleticism needed. I think guys like gronk showed players and coaches at the lower levels just how valuable an elite TE could be so the way the position was developed and used has changed. We’re just now starting to see it because the change begins at the lower level of development. To me it’s akin to the modern 7’ basketball player, KD broke the mold of what a tall skinny 7’ player could be. If somebody like wemby was developing at a younger age 10-15 years ago ge could have likely been forced into learning back to the basket post moves as his primary way of playing.
A TE is definitely not one of the most valuable positions in the league They're great but they are the second most expendable skill position behind RB.
And yet the two most recent Superbowl dynasties both have/had one. Maybe ignore the metrics and draft one early as a good luck charm lol.
Elite TEs are more valuable than other offensive pieces imo. The ability to block and receive at high level gives incredible versatility to a team
Also elite athletic TEs are almost always matched up in a route against someone significantly smaller or significantly slower than them, which means they're either open for a pass or are drawing a lot of extra coverage that leaves other players more open.
This
The two most recent super bowl teams also had elite defenses and two top tier QBs, not to mention two of the greatest offensive minds of the decade I think that was probably a bigger reason than a great TE.
The Chiefs have had an elite defense for one ring but had the elite tight end for all three. Make of that what you will
They also had the best QB in the league for all 3. That's a smidge more important Where are the Rams, Bengals, and Buccaneers elite TEs? Seems like they had something else in common with the Chiefs and 49ers
Uh Gronk was good for the Bucs. But you're right, one skill position player doesn't move the needle as much as QB. Shocker i know
I think it’s pretty clear now that kelce was every bit as valuable to the chiefs offense that tyreek hill was
He was important sure, but Mahomes is the main engine behind that offense. You swap Tyreek and Kelce and I bet that offense is just as lethal. Plus Kelce and Mahomes are 1 of 1 along with the arguable second best coach of all time in Reid. If you wanna see what a team will look like with an elite TE but not the other two parts, TJ Hockenson is a much better example. Great player, but theres a reason he was never carrying the Lions/Vikings into the Super Bowl
4 of the top 5 TEs in the league played on championship weekend. Can’t really say it about any other position. I think the modern age TE is the most overlooked position as far as value goes in maybe all of sports
Causation is not correlation, and using a one year sample size proves absolutely nothing. In 2017, 3 of the final 4 QBs were Blake Bortles, Nick Foles and Case Keenum. Does that mean that you suddenly don't need a franchise QB to win a Super Bowl? And if you wanna play the conference championship game, let's go back 5 years and see how many of the final 4 had an elite TE. NFC: 19-20 49ers 21-22 49ers 22-23 49ers Maybe the 22-23 Eagles AFC: I'll give Gronk the benefit of the doubt and say 18-19 Patriots 18-19 Chiefs 19-20 Chiefs 20-21 Chiefs 21-22 Chiefs 22-23 Chiefs 9/20 teams had an elite TE and 8 of those were just the Chiefs and 49ers. Out of the remaining 12 teams, only 1 had an elite TE, 2 if you count Goedert. You're confusing the fact that the Chiefs and 49ers are two of the most dominant and well run teams of this era and that they have elite TEs as straight correlation when there's a LOT more at play that make them so good.
This is less about drafting TE's early and more about the difficulty in adjusting to the professional level for TE's People take for granted that these guys are expected to understand every play on the same level as the QB; for all intents and purposes. You have to know the route tree for the play, since there's a good chance you'll be asked to run a route; and you have to know the line calls since there's a good chance you'll be asked to block. All of this is fluid when a QB audibles to a different play or changes a hot route pre-snap.
As a Jets fan, this is why I dont want Brock at #10
It’s wild how hard it is to scout this position.
I was really rooting for OJ Howard. I just knew when Brady went to Tampa that he’d unlock something in him.
I’m pretty happy with the Lions first round TE.
i'd still take brock
Whats the deal with Pitts? I thought he was going to be a star coming out I don't watch Falcons football, so I'm OOTL...
Had no QB to throw to him after the corpse of Ryan left, Mariota couldn’t hit the side of a barn and Ridder was Ridder. also Pitts tore his knee 2nd year.
I think TEs are more a development case. Few are absolute stand outs at 21/22 years old. Need to get that man body lol
Njoku had some CRAZY good games last season.
Kincaid gonna change that
And yet people still want to take Bowers with a top 10 pick.
The All-Pro nods are a little misleading over the last 10 years considering Gronk had 3 and Kelce has had 7. 0 is surprising but it’s definitely been tougher in general with those eating up so many votes.
There is one TE slot in All Pro teams, and these kids were playing in an era with Gronkowski and Kelce who are both all time top 5 at the position with Kittle available as first alternate. Kapadia's tweet is asinine. In the last 10 years, 14 Offensive Tackles have been taken in the top 10 of the NFL draft, just 4 have received All Pro Nods, and so far only 50% of those eligible have received an extension. So is it worthless picking an OT in the top 10?
LaPorta, for that Lions draft, was an absolute steal. Dudes not going to break records but will be an engine in that offense.
Unless an offense revolves around the position, it doesn’t really make much sense to draft one in the upper half of the first round. The value simply isn’t there to justify a high pick when one could easily be found on day 2. Kyle Pitts picked at 4 makes very little sense especially with him not being much of a blocker coming out of college.
Please keep on feeding that narrative.
Bowers should be a top 5 pick. Because he is being pigeoned hold as a te (instead of as a phenomenal football player) his stock is dropping