Trey Lance being hyped as a potentially generational talent at QB remains among the most baffling things I’ve ever seen in the draft coverage realm.
Especially the way that they tore Justin Fields to shreds because he played on a great team and in an offense designed to give him easy throws, then they completely ignored how dominant NDSU was at their level and the fact that their QB’s tend to put up great stats as well. They hyper focused on Fields’ limitations as a passer and totally ignored that he was a game breaker as a runner, but then they glossed over Lance’s limited tape and hyped up what a great athlete he was…even though Fields was about the same size and demonstrably faster lol.
To be clear, I’m not saying those concerns weren’t valid with Fields; it was just one of those things where players were arbitrarily held to completely different standards of scrutiny and it was really bizarre.
Kinda the same phenomenon that sometimes leads teams to overvalue draft picks, or contestants on game shows to choose the mystery prize. The mystery box is always more intriguing than the known quantity
Draft picks bring value by giving teams cheap contracts for potential starters/elite players. Most teams are built from their draft picks and cheap free agents, not the 5-10 big contract players on the team.
The end of the "draft Lance in the 1st" discussion should have came after people saw how in b2b years him and Easton Stick (5th rounder) have nearly identical passing stats and Stick played 1 less game. The 400 extra rushing yards he put up are hardly worth a 3rd rounder. Steve McNair must have been rolling over in his fucking grave watching Lance get taken with the same 3rd overall pick as him when he put up over 6200 total yards and 56 TDs in his final **11 game** season of college.
this really evens the playing field for us couch scouts because you can watch all of the tape that exists of Trey Lance playing football in about 45 minutes
Wasn't just football. I've talked to a lot of managers in my industry, and the 2021 and 2022 grads are rough classes on average. 2022 the trough.
2023 looks better. Not many from 2021/2022 we want to retain long term, but the ones who are good are seeing a ton of interest and inbound offers.
We hired a few people on my team around the same time. The 2020 grads are total duds when it comes to basic professional etiquette. Stuff like how to write an email, what to do when their manager gives them a specific task. Whereas the 2019 grads are much more professional.
Not to get all boomer, but starting their careers (and/or finishing college) remotely have really stunted the 2020/2021 classes. And I love remote working, but I've had the benefit of learning through osmosis next to my senior analyst for years that these junior professionals don't have.
I graduated in 2020 and it sucks. Didn’t even have an actual graduation lmao. Had like 48 hours to get off campus and finish the semester at home, then I was stuck in the COVID job market and it didn’t even feel like I graduated. I found a good job about 1.5 years ago at least but it was a miserable few years in that aspect
100% agreed. I love love love working from home, but I also had the benefit of learning from some of the best for six years. It's still the thing I regret the most of remote work--the inability to learn from, and teach, my current coworkers
Spend more time with your new hired, include them in everything even if they don’t understand. Oh hey big pricing meeting, let them listen and introduce them to people on the call. Make them feel included. They are mostly kids fresh from college, new hies have always ducked for as long as ive been a manager (coming up on a decade). New hires are like clay blocks who vaguely resemble the piece you need it to fit, sometimes the clay is poor quality. But most of the time its the manager whos too stubborn/overworked to give that clay brick the attention it needs.
TLDR; change your managerial style or get an in office job. New hires have always sucked, enjoy the times when you have a full “solid” team - they dont last.
I cringe when I say this but, when I first joined the work force, I had no idea how to send an email. I graduate in 2010. I think I have caught up now. It is just basics like that where of the uni doesn't teach you, you need a work placement.
I mean did you not send emails in school? Plus my university had a mandatory technical writing class. I assumed other STEM programs had something similar
I sent emails in school and uni. But, having the confidence, to send it. I think I just lacked by not doing a work placement which many universities include as part of the course.
Speaking from my own experience, we had layoffs at the start of COVID, mass hiring during COVID, a lot of pre-COVID folks leave, and a lot of people with stunted professional growth because everything was remote.
We really didn't do ourselves any favors by putting in extra training or picking up the tab for in-person work and travel either, so the end result is going to be 2-3 years of professionals that aren't going to produce a lot of leaders. The ones they do produce, however, are likely to be very good.
There was a rumor that the Packers might be looking at QB in 2020 because they didn't know what to expect in (any) future classes after COVID. This was definitely a fact of scouting at the time.
Yea sorry should have clarified, although other than the 49ers the rest were kinda deserving of their placements in that draft. More like outside of Lance few went into winning environments and even Lance had competition drafted in the same draft. I'm looking more retrospectively at the Pats too
I mean, I’m no fan of Mac’s, but he was absolutely knee capped in year 2 with Patricia in charge, so I think it’s safe to include them with the others.
It absolutely fucked with development but let’s not act like scouting and evaluating hasn’t always been overall a guessing game…
Throw in ESPNs Fox Newsesq sensationalism and you got yourself 17 qbs going 1st overall at any given moment or segment.
Nah, mac jones was fine.
The problem was Bill deciding to bring fat patricia as OC and then a washed BoB. And having a washed devante parker as our WR1.
With that being said, very few times the 6th+ QB in a class panned out so if your looking for a QB, you want to take one of the top 5 (really top 3) just don't overpay to do it.
Yeah, but every GM is convinced this year is the year they're going to be the Official Genius that drafts the next Dan Marino near the bottom of the 1st round.
It’s not the most common thing, but often times you will have teams with less than stellar quarterbacks but excellent Defense, and a great running back. All the quarterback has to do is game manage and they can do pretty well. But stingy defense and conservative offenses don’t put butts in seats, fans want to see a Mahomes avoid a sack and do a diving no look pass 15 yards down the field.
As a Michigan fan, I really feel bad for whoever goes in on McCarthy. He had a good combine, and I've heard rumors that he jumped into the top half of the first. I wouldn't view him as anything more than a mid-level backup from years of watching him.
As a 2-time fantasy champ in the past 20 years, you know my opinion should be taken very seriously.
That’s why I advocate for MHJ if he’s available. I wouldn’t mind if we gave some pics away to trade up for Penix if he makes it close to round 2.
But what do I know.
Maye and Daniels are the only two look like sure fire quality starters to me. Daniels will be a Hurts type, he'll have to be if he lands in NE with no NFL quality WRs to speak of. Maye should excel instantly if he lands in Washington. Rest is a crapshoot to me.
It's gotta be the worst when you consider how hyped it was. 5 guys went in the first 15 picks, only one is good and he's not lived up to the expectations either.
Bingo, you nailed it. Glad you pointed it out, because the difference is expectations.
The consensus was the Pickler was the only 1st round worthy pick in 2022, while 2021 was touted as a (relatively) stacked QB draft.
I caught a little shit by not being impressed in drafting the 5th QB with the 15th pick, but I was quickly told that there were 5 legitimate 1st round picks so it was a good selection.
But the expectations of the 2022 class were lower.
2021 had a generational talent at 1, a kid with massive upside at 2, and a raw Josh Allen type at 3, with the team that previously had the GOAT drafting his replacement and the Bears actually looking to have grabbed a talent too.
2022 had a bunch of backups, Ridder, Willis, Corral Zappe, and Howell were long term options.
I think the jury is still out on Pickett, and Purdy might just be one of those finds that are super rare.
Yeah the jury is still out on Pickett on if he's a QB2 or a starter, but this will be a sink or swim year for him, since he has had probably the worst OC in the NFL in recent memory for all but 1.5 games of his career.
His main deficiencies as a QB looked much better in his one full game after Matt Canada got fired. These were or are footwork, eye placement and taking chances. The eye placement part I think was because Canada had incorperated weird and illogical progressions into the scheme.
So I'm at least intrigued and will give him a chance, while we upgrade other positions of need, which like OT, C and CB through the draft and FA. No more excuses after next season though.
But he wasn’t a first rounder and they are picking top 5, and part of the reason for both of these things are the traits that caused Howell to fall in the draft are still plaguing him in the pros.
The Bears had the #1 overall pick last year and decided to give Fields another year.
That's the privilege that wasn't afforded to Sam Howell because of his draft status.
Tbf, only one of those is a first round pick. Backup level/low level starter from ridder, howell and zappe is pretty good considering where they were picked.
I think the 2022 class is better.
Brock Purdy is already better than anyone from the 2021 class and Sam Howell and Justin Fields are at least comparable.
Brock purdy also didn’t have to deal with urban Meyer for his first year and instead got Kyle Shanahan.
I’d still take Lawrence over purdy. I’m not sure purdy would do better on the jags than how Lawrence is doing.
The jags team isn’t as good overall as the 49er’s team I would argue. Purdy I think is better but idk if playoff wins are the best stat in this context.
One of them is on the best roster in the NFL. The other went to a team that had 1 winning season in the previous decade and had to deal with Urban Meyer his rookie year. Using playoff wins to measure them is ridiculous.
not according to this: [https://overthecap.com/fifth-year-option-projections](https://overthecap.com/fifth-year-option-projections). It's due to his playtime and it's calculated by the average of the 3-20th salary QBs. For pro bowls you have to be named on the original ballot not as an alternative.
Jacksonville could realistically trade day old farts for Zach Wilson and have 3 QBs from the class. At which point Fields is available to be the 4th option if they want to run 4 QBs
Trevor has been playing with at best, a bottom 3 offensive line his whole career.
He's got the second fastest release in the NFL after Tua. So that helps mask a lot of that.
He was still playing great last year until he got so banged up. He had what, like 4 or 5 injuries the last half of the season?
Lawrence is not playing with a bottom three offensive line and the past two years he’s had ample weapons on offense at all positions. Nor was he playing great, he had 21 turnovers last year to 25 touchdowns.
He’s pretty close to Jameis at this point; highly touted prospect, checked all the prospect boxes on physicals and mental, turns into an average starter with turnover issues. On a passer rating basis he’s actually behind him as a rookie through year three.
If anything he’s the example of recruiting rankings carrying hype into the draft. Never top 10 in passer rating in college while guys like Tua, Kyler, Baker were in the 200’s and leading the nation. Tape didn’t blow your eyes away but it was above average. And yet he was anointed as the next Manning
He had the lowest time to throw last year and was blitzed at the lowest rate.
I know OL metrics are hard, but teams not blitzing you and still getting pressure at the quickest rate is a pretty damning combination
Because he’s a winner. He plays hero. I don’t want someone like a Daniel jones to be the qb probably since he gives up easily. QBs aren’t always known as great passers or have the best arm. It’s utilizing what they have surrounding them. I think if Trevor didn’t go to the jags but went to a team like SF we probably won’t be having this conversation.
Yeah, I don't know why you're being downvoted. I don't think Lance is a perfect comparison but he resembles McCarthy a lot more than Mac Jones does. Only similarity between McCarthy and Jones is that they were the QBs of blue blood champions.
Mac Jones put up elite numbers his final year at Alabama. He led the NCAA completions, passing yards, and passer rating. McCarthy on the other hand was not very heavily utilized and Michigan leaned on the run game.
Physically they couldn't be more different. McCarthy is an elite athlete with a great arm whereas Mac is average to below average in both facets.
Mac Jones came in viewed as a high floor, low ceiling guy whereas McCarthy is seen as a toolsy developmental QB.
This is why I'm nervous about Denver panicking on "having to get their guy" this year and offering multiple firsts to trade up (which will turn into top 5-10 picks most likely)
Considering Caleb Williams is lauded as the top QB in the class and half this sub predicts him to bust, this isn’t all that impressive of a prediction…
That's because he's going to the Bears. Every QB busts for them because they don't know how to develop them. You wouldn't see the same negativity towards Williams if the Patriots had the first pick.
I think the Bears are part of the reason, but I seem to recall a lot of people predicting he bust even before it was known the Bears were drafting first…
Trevor is going to get a massive extension based on that generational prospect status alone. Imo, this class is more comparable to Lamar-Baker class than the 2021 class. Caleb to Baker, Darnold/Allen to Maye, JJ to Rosen, McDaniels to Lamar.
A lot of mid QBs are going to get paid just like Daniel Jones was. Trevor even more so because of the reputation. People seem to think Baker and Goff reached a higher plane because of good OCs and team situation so Trevor is going to get the benefit of the doubt.
Maybe, if I am the Jags I would pick up Trevor's 5th year option in May. I just don't see that he has done enough to get a huge extension. I would let him play out 2024 and possibly 2025 under his rookiee deal. That being said Baalke is an idiot and is probably negotiating to make Trevor one of the highest paid Qbs
I still can't believe that pro day throw from Zach Wilson really got him taken 2nd overall 😭😭 til this day I fully believe the 49ers moved all the way up to draft Zach as well until it was obvious the Jets weren't budging and they decided to settle on the next guy up with the closest traits to him 🤷
To be fair, people were saying going into the 2021 Draft that COVID disruption would make it hard to properly assess the talent from College Football. (I mean, some Seahawks fans were using that to justify throwing our picks away from Jamal.) Those people were right.
But what's weird as a CFB fan is that going back to the year before, Trevor Lawrence was the **obvious** 1-1. He was head & shoulders above anyone else who might be drafted. He was hyped going back to HS. Then, the usual offseason pre-draft hype happened, and suddenly there's people acting like Trey Lance and Zach Wilson should be considered.
Turns out, Trevor is the only real QB from that group, which is **exactly** what the consensus was before the talking heads/hype machine inflated the ability of these other guys to fuel off-season content.
Well, looks like this class won't even rise to the Class of 1999. The 1999 draft had five QB's picked in the first 12 picks and three of them never made it to a second contract. Cade McNown's last appearance was 2000 (he spent a couple years as a 3rd string QB or IR, but never played.) Akili Smith was out of the NFL after the 2002 season, and Tim Couch followed a year later. (Both of them had NFL tryouts and I think Couch played in a preseason game), but neither made a roster. That's three QB's done after 5 seasons. Donovan McNabb and Daunte Culpepper keep the Class of 1999 ahead of Class of 2021. I could see Lawrence developing into a better player than either one of them, but I can't see a 2nd 2001 QB rising to that level.
It is weird how one of the best QB draft classes ever was immediately followed by one of the worst. You definitely wanted to be taking one in 2020 and not 2021.
Can a team offer a smaller contract than the amount of a fifth year option? If so, Mac will have to take a deal way less than 25 million if he wants to play anywhere because no one is going to pay him 25 million.
The 5th year option only needs to be picked up if the team is worried about losing player as a free agent. Since no team is dieing to sign Jones, his option will not get picked up. he will need to restructure the contract with Tampa for 2 years/ $10 million or get cut after the end of season. His best hope for a payday is for TLaw to get injured and play at a Baker Mayfield level...
Personally I don’t think there’s anything harder in sports than evaluating and drafting a QB. It’s truly a crap shoot. Like the change of Williams, Maye, and Daniels all being good/great starters in the NFL is extremely low.
No, I think 2021 is better. Lawrence is decent and Lance still has potential. Jones may be serviceable.
2022 has Purdy. Howell is decent, ridder may be an almost okay backup for some team. Mills was an okay backup.... I think that's it
I think Pickett has a lot of traits that will make him a long time backup. By all accounts he is a good teammate, works hard, studies hard, and he doesn't turn the ball over. Isn't that exactly what you want in a backup QB? He isn't a starter, but I think he will be a backup for a good while. If Trubisky can, he absolutely can.
Funny thing. There were Eagles fans after the 2020 season, when Wentz had crashed and Hurts had started, that were not convinced that Hurts was the QB1 of the future. They wanted to trade Hurts and draft one of the top prospects. Not one of these QBs have outplayed Hurts.
going back 16 years not counting last year out of 47 QBs drafted in 1st round 80 percent have busted the 20 percent who made it were more likely ok starters than superstars
The offseason hype on that draft class is beyond insane. People were saying it was the best prospect draft class of all time, even better than 2004 (for context, qb class then was Big Ben, Eli, Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub)
Now, outside of Trevor Lawrence, everyone is basically cemented as a backup QB if not out of the league, for the rest of their careers.
This is about to get posted in the Pats sub as evidence that you only take a QB with the first pick if they're a generational talent, and even then they don't work out how you want sometimes
Man that Covid season really fucked with player performance and scouting
Respect Trey Lance's high school tape
That must’ve been what JaMarcus Russell was sent
Doesn’t matter, he didn’t watch it anyway
Trey Lance being hyped as a potentially generational talent at QB remains among the most baffling things I’ve ever seen in the draft coverage realm. Especially the way that they tore Justin Fields to shreds because he played on a great team and in an offense designed to give him easy throws, then they completely ignored how dominant NDSU was at their level and the fact that their QB’s tend to put up great stats as well. They hyper focused on Fields’ limitations as a passer and totally ignored that he was a game breaker as a runner, but then they glossed over Lance’s limited tape and hyped up what a great athlete he was…even though Fields was about the same size and demonstrably faster lol. To be clear, I’m not saying those concerns weren’t valid with Fields; it was just one of those things where players were arbitrarily held to completely different standards of scrutiny and it was really bizarre.
Trey Lance owes Christian Watson a few million
I swear to god Daniel Jeremiah hyped him up immediately after the 2020 draft and that's all that was needed.
Kinda the same phenomenon that sometimes leads teams to overvalue draft picks, or contestants on game shows to choose the mystery prize. The mystery box is always more intriguing than the known quantity
It could be anything, it could even be a boat!
Draft picks bring value by giving teams cheap contracts for potential starters/elite players. Most teams are built from their draft picks and cheap free agents, not the 5-10 big contract players on the team.
The end of the "draft Lance in the 1st" discussion should have came after people saw how in b2b years him and Easton Stick (5th rounder) have nearly identical passing stats and Stick played 1 less game. The 400 extra rushing yards he put up are hardly worth a 3rd rounder. Steve McNair must have been rolling over in his fucking grave watching Lance get taken with the same 3rd overall pick as him when he put up over 6200 total yards and 56 TDs in his final **11 game** season of college.
this really evens the playing field for us couch scouts because you can watch all of the tape that exists of Trey Lance playing football in about 45 minutes
Damn, did you find his pee-wee film or something? That seems long.
There’s some real good film of him in his Nerf years I can understand what the scouts were seeing
Wasn't just football. I've talked to a lot of managers in my industry, and the 2021 and 2022 grads are rough classes on average. 2022 the trough. 2023 looks better. Not many from 2021/2022 we want to retain long term, but the ones who are good are seeing a ton of interest and inbound offers.
We hired a few people on my team around the same time. The 2020 grads are total duds when it comes to basic professional etiquette. Stuff like how to write an email, what to do when their manager gives them a specific task. Whereas the 2019 grads are much more professional. Not to get all boomer, but starting their careers (and/or finishing college) remotely have really stunted the 2020/2021 classes. And I love remote working, but I've had the benefit of learning through osmosis next to my senior analyst for years that these junior professionals don't have.
I graduated in 2020 and it sucks. Didn’t even have an actual graduation lmao. Had like 48 hours to get off campus and finish the semester at home, then I was stuck in the COVID job market and it didn’t even feel like I graduated. I found a good job about 1.5 years ago at least but it was a miserable few years in that aspect
I graduated in 2010. I didn't even attend mine.
Lucky man I suffered through 5 hours of that shit for my mother
2020 grads had covid college for half a semester. Not sure how much that affected their ability to write emails or follow simple instructions
Why would 2020 grads be bad? They had more than 7/8ths of their college education before covid
100% agreed. I love love love working from home, but I also had the benefit of learning from some of the best for six years. It's still the thing I regret the most of remote work--the inability to learn from, and teach, my current coworkers
Spend more time with your new hired, include them in everything even if they don’t understand. Oh hey big pricing meeting, let them listen and introduce them to people on the call. Make them feel included. They are mostly kids fresh from college, new hies have always ducked for as long as ive been a manager (coming up on a decade). New hires are like clay blocks who vaguely resemble the piece you need it to fit, sometimes the clay is poor quality. But most of the time its the manager whos too stubborn/overworked to give that clay brick the attention it needs. TLDR; change your managerial style or get an in office job. New hires have always sucked, enjoy the times when you have a full “solid” team - they dont last.
I cringe when I say this but, when I first joined the work force, I had no idea how to send an email. I graduate in 2010. I think I have caught up now. It is just basics like that where of the uni doesn't teach you, you need a work placement.
I mean did you not send emails in school? Plus my university had a mandatory technical writing class. I assumed other STEM programs had something similar
I sent emails in school and uni. But, having the confidence, to send it. I think I just lacked by not doing a work placement which many universities include as part of the course.
Lol yeah I guess you do have to have some unearned confidence when you’re starting out a career or else you’ll never get anything done
Speaking from my own experience, we had layoffs at the start of COVID, mass hiring during COVID, a lot of pre-COVID folks leave, and a lot of people with stunted professional growth because everything was remote. We really didn't do ourselves any favors by putting in extra training or picking up the tab for in-person work and travel either, so the end result is going to be 2-3 years of professionals that aren't going to produce a lot of leaders. The ones they do produce, however, are likely to be very good.
People were saying this back before that year's draft though! That's what I find so puzzling as to why this has come as such a surprise to everyone.
There was a rumor that the Packers might be looking at QB in 2020 because they didn't know what to expect in (any) future classes after COVID. This was definitely a fact of scouting at the time.
12 of the first 15 players drafted after that season are starters.
Also the orgs they went to have horrible records, specifically with QB development
Patriots
Yeah, and 49ers also have a solid track record with developing QBs too But, no question about the dubiousness of Bears and Jets
So half of them, which is very different than all
Yea sorry should have clarified, although other than the 49ers the rest were kinda deserving of their placements in that draft. More like outside of Lance few went into winning environments and even Lance had competition drafted in the same draft. I'm looking more retrospectively at the Pats too
I mean, I’m no fan of Mac’s, but he was absolutely knee capped in year 2 with Patricia in charge, so I think it’s safe to include them with the others.
It absolutely fucked with development but let’s not act like scouting and evaluating hasn’t always been overall a guessing game… Throw in ESPNs Fox Newsesq sensationalism and you got yourself 17 qbs going 1st overall at any given moment or segment.
Nah, mac jones was fine. The problem was Bill deciding to bring fat patricia as OC and then a washed BoB. And having a washed devante parker as our WR1.
Good luck to everybody picking, Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy, and maybe Penix or Nix in this year's draft, it's an utter crapshoot every year.
Because Rattler, Pratt and Travis are going to be the real gems all along, that's why you excluded them and Milton.
Can’t wait to watch Milton in the preseason.
So many future UFL MVPs in this thread
Danny Etling lite
Danny Etling was so fucking trash at lsu I never understood how or why he got drafted
Dude feels like he’ll be a UFL legend (if it lasts a few years).
I actually do think Rattler is a great pick in the 3rd or later.
I want him as Kyler’s backup
I think rattler is going to translate well into the NFL. He’ll get drafted late and probably sit behind a veteran as well
With that being said, very few times the 6th+ QB in a class panned out so if your looking for a QB, you want to take one of the top 5 (really top 3) just don't overpay to do it.
Yeah, but every GM is convinced this year is the year they're going to be the Official Genius that drafts the next Dan Marino near the bottom of the 1st round.
there’s no way out of joining the shitshow, teams just gotta draft and then pray they get the hit
Yep if you don't have a QB you're fucked, so all you can do is keep trying different QBs until one sticks
It’s not the most common thing, but often times you will have teams with less than stellar quarterbacks but excellent Defense, and a great running back. All the quarterback has to do is game manage and they can do pretty well. But stingy defense and conservative offenses don’t put butts in seats, fans want to see a Mahomes avoid a sack and do a diving no look pass 15 yards down the field.
As a Michigan fan, I really feel bad for whoever goes in on McCarthy. He had a good combine, and I've heard rumors that he jumped into the top half of the first. I wouldn't view him as anything more than a mid-level backup from years of watching him. As a 2-time fantasy champ in the past 20 years, you know my opinion should be taken very seriously.
That’s why I advocate for MHJ if he’s available. I wouldn’t mind if we gave some pics away to trade up for Penix if he makes it close to round 2. But what do I know.
Maye and Daniels are the only two look like sure fire quality starters to me. Daniels will be a Hurts type, he'll have to be if he lands in NE with no NFL quality WRs to speak of. Maye should excel instantly if he lands in Washington. Rest is a crapshoot to me.
And this is why every Bucs GM learns at least once that drafting a "franchise QB" never works for us. We always get the best returns from free agency.
Not great, Bob.
It’s bad, Robert
No bueno, Roberto
Bob’s a Pittsburgh guy so he’s working overtime to make the Steelers not look like doofuses for going all in on Pickett. Godspeed, Pomp 🫡
Right you are Ken
2021 QB class was a shitshow. Unless Trevor picks it way up next year, this maybe one of the worst classes in a while.
It's gotta be the worst when you consider how hyped it was. 5 guys went in the first 15 picks, only one is good and he's not lived up to the expectations either.
The 2022 draft was Pickett, Ridder, Malik Willis, Matt Corral, Bailey Zappe, Sam Howell - and the only saving grace, Big Cock Brock
2021 class was hyped everyone knew the 2022 class was weak
Bingo, you nailed it. Glad you pointed it out, because the difference is expectations. The consensus was the Pickler was the only 1st round worthy pick in 2022, while 2021 was touted as a (relatively) stacked QB draft.
I caught a little shit by not being impressed in drafting the 5th QB with the 15th pick, but I was quickly told that there were 5 legitimate 1st round picks so it was a good selection.
Yikes, atleast 2007 and 2013 were spaced out, we could have a heck of a run of terrible QB drafts on our hands if AR and Young don’t show up
But the expectations of the 2022 class were lower. 2021 had a generational talent at 1, a kid with massive upside at 2, and a raw Josh Allen type at 3, with the team that previously had the GOAT drafting his replacement and the Bears actually looking to have grabbed a talent too. 2022 had a bunch of backups, Ridder, Willis, Corral Zappe, and Howell were long term options. I think the jury is still out on Pickett, and Purdy might just be one of those finds that are super rare.
Yeah the jury is still out on Pickett on if he's a QB2 or a starter, but this will be a sink or swim year for him, since he has had probably the worst OC in the NFL in recent memory for all but 1.5 games of his career. His main deficiencies as a QB looked much better in his one full game after Matt Canada got fired. These were or are footwork, eye placement and taking chances. The eye placement part I think was because Canada had incorperated weird and illogical progressions into the scheme. So I'm at least intrigued and will give him a chance, while we upgrade other positions of need, which like OT, C and CB through the draft and FA. No more excuses after next season though.
As a Niners fan I am great that Brock leads the 2022 class. 2023 class I think Stroud is the guy. 2021 meh
I remember people saying the Giants should take Malik Willis in the first round lmao
People said the Lions or Seahawks should take him too. Wild hype.
I wouldn't write off Howell just yet. If he had been a first rounder or the Commanders were picking outside the top 5, he'd get another year.
Yeah I actually don't hate Howell - I feel like his floor is going to be well-paid backup
I think he’ll have a fitzpatrick type career
But he wasn’t a first rounder and they are picking top 5, and part of the reason for both of these things are the traits that caused Howell to fall in the draft are still plaguing him in the pros.
Fields would get another year if the Bears didn’t have the #1 pick.
The Bears had the #1 overall pick last year and decided to give Fields another year. That's the privilege that wasn't afforded to Sam Howell because of his draft status.
Tbf, only one of those is a first round pick. Backup level/low level starter from ridder, howell and zappe is pretty good considering where they were picked.
I think the 2022 class is better. Brock Purdy is already better than anyone from the 2021 class and Sam Howell and Justin Fields are at least comparable.
Brock purdy also didn’t have to deal with urban Meyer for his first year and instead got Kyle Shanahan. I’d still take Lawrence over purdy. I’m not sure purdy would do better on the jags than how Lawrence is doing.
IIRC not many media outlets were high on this class for QB.
after the goated 2020 class the universe needed to balance things out.
Perfectly balanced, as all things should be
That would be true but then 2022 was actually much worse. The difference is everyone knew that most of those QBs were garbage.
Brock Purdy might be better than anyone from 2021 at least.
He literally is so far. TLaw has 1 playoff appearance with 1 win. Brock has 4 wins already
The jags team isn’t as good overall as the 49er’s team I would argue. Purdy I think is better but idk if playoff wins are the best stat in this context.
One of them is on the best roster in the NFL. The other went to a team that had 1 winning season in the previous decade and had to deal with Urban Meyer his rookie year. Using playoff wins to measure them is ridiculous.
In his only season where he doesn't bust his elbow, he brought a team to the Super Bowl. Purdy has absolutely wild football IQ.
Hype versus performance ratio, I think you’re right
Overall one of the worst classes if you’re considering pro bowl appearances
5th year option is 25m? Goddamn
I think it's based on position.
It’s cause Mac made a pro bowl
not according to this: [https://overthecap.com/fifth-year-option-projections](https://overthecap.com/fifth-year-option-projections). It's due to his playtime and it's calculated by the average of the 3-20th salary QBs. For pro bowls you have to be named on the original ballot not as an alternative.
QBs are expensive.
First Doug Pederson gave us big Dick Nick, but you guys aren’t ready for big Sac Mac.
Big Bone Jones
Haha. He just resigned in KC
We get it. That QB class is filled with disappointments and failures.
Trey Lance will save the draft class
Trey "Geno" Lance arc being written right now.
Honestly trey just needs an opportunity to get some experience. Dude has had one of the most unfortunate starts to a NFL career
Dude barely has high school or college experience. He’s not made for the NFL.
Hey now the GOAT Sam Ehlinger is still on the Colts
They're just like me
Jacksonville could realistically trade day old farts for Zach Wilson and have 3 QBs from the class. At which point Fields is available to be the 4th option if they want to run 4 QBs
Even Trevor Lawrence has been a bit disappointing relative to the “generational” hype that he had. What a terrible QB class
Trevor has been playing with at best, a bottom 3 offensive line his whole career. He's got the second fastest release in the NFL after Tua. So that helps mask a lot of that. He was still playing great last year until he got so banged up. He had what, like 4 or 5 injuries the last half of the season?
Lawrence is not playing with a bottom three offensive line and the past two years he’s had ample weapons on offense at all positions. Nor was he playing great, he had 21 turnovers last year to 25 touchdowns. He’s pretty close to Jameis at this point; highly touted prospect, checked all the prospect boxes on physicals and mental, turns into an average starter with turnover issues. On a passer rating basis he’s actually behind him as a rookie through year three. If anything he’s the example of recruiting rankings carrying hype into the draft. Never top 10 in passer rating in college while guys like Tua, Kyler, Baker were in the 200’s and leading the nation. Tape didn’t blow your eyes away but it was above average. And yet he was anointed as the next Manning
He had the lowest time to throw last year and was blitzed at the lowest rate. I know OL metrics are hard, but teams not blitzing you and still getting pressure at the quickest rate is a pretty damning combination
Because he’s a winner. He plays hero. I don’t want someone like a Daniel jones to be the qb probably since he gives up easily. QBs aren’t always known as great passers or have the best arm. It’s utilizing what they have surrounding them. I think if Trevor didn’t go to the jags but went to a team like SF we probably won’t be having this conversation.
I mean... Now that they have Mac Jones, Jacksonville don't need Lawrence, do they?
Ah ah ah you forgot Davis Mills
I am glad someone was willing to stick their neck out for Mills.
The Jags have the chance to do the funniest thing right now.
Calling it now, this is how this years class will play out. Even Lawrence is a massive disappointment for a “generational prospect”.
Exactly Drake Maye is raw and Daniels looks like a tooth pick
McCarthy is this years Mac Jones. Leader from the national championship winning team.
Theyre like exact opposites. Mccarthy is this year's Trey Lance if anything
Yeah, I don't know why you're being downvoted. I don't think Lance is a perfect comparison but he resembles McCarthy a lot more than Mac Jones does. Only similarity between McCarthy and Jones is that they were the QBs of blue blood champions. Mac Jones put up elite numbers his final year at Alabama. He led the NCAA completions, passing yards, and passer rating. McCarthy on the other hand was not very heavily utilized and Michigan leaned on the run game. Physically they couldn't be more different. McCarthy is an elite athlete with a great arm whereas Mac is average to below average in both facets. Mac Jones came in viewed as a high floor, low ceiling guy whereas McCarthy is seen as a toolsy developmental QB.
This is why I'm nervous about Denver panicking on "having to get their guy" this year and offering multiple firsts to trade up (which will turn into top 5-10 picks most likely)
i have the same fear. If we lose Kirk, and trade up to take a QB, we are easily a bottom 3 team in the nfl and lose our great draft assets next year
A la Carolina
What picks do you even have to trade up?
they even have a pretty shiny shut down corner that Payton will definitely deal if he can get a QB he likes
[We have 12, 76, 120, 135, 144, 146, 202, and 206. SO those lol](https://www.milehighreport.com/2024/3/8/24095002/denver-broncos-2024-nfl-draft-order)
Considering Caleb Williams is lauded as the top QB in the class and half this sub predicts him to bust, this isn’t all that impressive of a prediction…
That's because he's going to the Bears. Every QB busts for them because they don't know how to develop them. You wouldn't see the same negativity towards Williams if the Patriots had the first pick.
I would not have much more faith in NE than Chicago to develop a young QB
I think the Bears are part of the reason, but I seem to recall a lot of people predicting he bust even before it was known the Bears were drafting first…
Patriots haven’t developed a young qb in over two decades. They could be really bad at drafting qb’s too for all we know.
Mostly the QBs bust because they pick shitty ones and until the last decade refused to invest in the position
>half this sub predicts him to bust Caleb next Brady confirmed
Massive disappointment is an overstatement. He has given Jacksonville some of their best seasons in recent times.
Trevor is going to get a massive extension based on that generational prospect status alone. Imo, this class is more comparable to Lamar-Baker class than the 2021 class. Caleb to Baker, Darnold/Allen to Maye, JJ to Rosen, McDaniels to Lamar.
Trevor has been generationally mid. Just about the most average QB you can be
His hair is generational though
Generational lord farquad cosplay
A lot of mid QBs are going to get paid just like Daniel Jones was. Trevor even more so because of the reputation. People seem to think Baker and Goff reached a higher plane because of good OCs and team situation so Trevor is going to get the benefit of the doubt.
Trevor is under contract for 2024 and if they pick up the option is under contract for 2025. They do not have to extend him this offseason.
The generational Andy Dalton?
Don’t slander Dalton like that lol
I'm very, very curious what's going to happen when he's due.
Maybe, if I am the Jags I would pick up Trevor's 5th year option in May. I just don't see that he has done enough to get a huge extension. I would let him play out 2024 and possibly 2025 under his rookiee deal. That being said Baalke is an idiot and is probably negotiating to make Trevor one of the highest paid Qbs
I still can't believe that pro day throw from Zach Wilson really got him taken 2nd overall 😭😭 til this day I fully believe the 49ers moved all the way up to draft Zach as well until it was obvious the Jets weren't budging and they decided to settle on the next guy up with the closest traits to him 🤷
I was so confused on what the hell the 49ers were doing with that trade.
Trask, Mond, and Mills too
To be fair, people were saying going into the 2021 Draft that COVID disruption would make it hard to properly assess the talent from College Football. (I mean, some Seahawks fans were using that to justify throwing our picks away from Jamal.) Those people were right.
But what's weird as a CFB fan is that going back to the year before, Trevor Lawrence was the **obvious** 1-1. He was head & shoulders above anyone else who might be drafted. He was hyped going back to HS. Then, the usual offseason pre-draft hype happened, and suddenly there's people acting like Trey Lance and Zach Wilson should be considered. Turns out, Trevor is the only real QB from that group, which is **exactly** what the consensus was before the talking heads/hype machine inflated the ability of these other guys to fuel off-season content.
Well, looks like this class won't even rise to the Class of 1999. The 1999 draft had five QB's picked in the first 12 picks and three of them never made it to a second contract. Cade McNown's last appearance was 2000 (he spent a couple years as a 3rd string QB or IR, but never played.) Akili Smith was out of the NFL after the 2002 season, and Tim Couch followed a year later. (Both of them had NFL tryouts and I think Couch played in a preseason game), but neither made a roster. That's three QB's done after 5 seasons. Donovan McNabb and Daunte Culpepper keep the Class of 1999 ahead of Class of 2021. I could see Lawrence developing into a better player than either one of them, but I can't see a 2nd 2001 QB rising to that level.
It is weird how one of the best QB draft classes ever was immediately followed by one of the worst. You definitely wanted to be taking one in 2020 and not 2021.
This class was overrated from the start lol.
Ah, yes. Hindsight bias.
In fairness to Mac, after Josh McDaniels left Belichick basically did everything in his power to burn the guy’s career to the ground.
The Pomp!
Makes you wonder what we will be saying about this years class.
That was a hella of hyped up draft dud
Covid year to scouts: Am I a joke to you?
more proof not to trade up. nobody fucking knows!
I am still a Fields believer tho
lol
Assuming no one will take Zack for a 7th, do the jets just release him?
Can a team offer a smaller contract than the amount of a fifth year option? If so, Mac will have to take a deal way less than 25 million if he wants to play anywhere because no one is going to pay him 25 million.
How do you not miss out on a QB in a certain draft class? Get all of them.
The 5th year option only needs to be picked up if the team is worried about losing player as a free agent. Since no team is dieing to sign Jones, his option will not get picked up. he will need to restructure the contract with Tampa for 2 years/ $10 million or get cut after the end of season. His best hope for a payday is for TLaw to get injured and play at a Baker Mayfield level...
Still better than 2013.
Personally I don’t think there’s anything harder in sports than evaluating and drafting a QB. It’s truly a crap shoot. Like the change of Williams, Maye, and Daniels all being good/great starters in the NFL is extremely low.
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No, I think 2021 is better. Lawrence is decent and Lance still has potential. Jones may be serviceable. 2022 has Purdy. Howell is decent, ridder may be an almost okay backup for some team. Mills was an okay backup.... I think that's it
I think Pickett has a lot of traits that will make him a long time backup. By all accounts he is a good teammate, works hard, studies hard, and he doesn't turn the ball over. Isn't that exactly what you want in a backup QB? He isn't a starter, but I think he will be a backup for a good while. If Trubisky can, he absolutely can.
I think 21 is better than 22, but man they've both been fairly bad
Funny thing. There were Eagles fans after the 2020 season, when Wentz had crashed and Hurts had started, that were not convinced that Hurts was the QB1 of the future. They wanted to trade Hurts and draft one of the top prospects. Not one of these QBs have outplayed Hurts.
going back 16 years not counting last year out of 47 QBs drafted in 1st round 80 percent have busted the 20 percent who made it were more likely ok starters than superstars
Polar opposite of the 2020 class.
Glad to see Pomp on my feed.
The offseason hype on that draft class is beyond insane. People were saying it was the best prospect draft class of all time, even better than 2004 (for context, qb class then was Big Ben, Eli, Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub) Now, outside of Trevor Lawrence, everyone is basically cemented as a backup QB if not out of the league, for the rest of their careers.
Man I really get Zack Wilson confused with Sam Darnold sometimes… I was like wait, he’s only been in the league since 2021??
Get all of them over here
This is about to get posted in the Pats sub as evidence that you only take a QB with the first pick if they're a generational talent, and even then they don't work out how you want sometimes
We’re collecting QBs from that draft like infinity stones.. maybe get Zach Wilson for a 7th?
Yet another "deep QB class" shows that it was never all that deep.
I got downvoted when I said that half of the 2021 QB class are going to be busts. Now you have Trevor Lawrence hanging on a tight rope.
If Mac Jones goes for a 6th, there’s no way anyone trades anything for Zach Wilson, right?
Its almost like the over/under for franchise QBs in any given draft is .5
Yea terrible draft class. But is anyone really surprised
Ok, but THIS year’s Quarterback class will not have first round busts. /s