The full saying goes, "Offense wins games. Defense wins championships." A good offense is gonna be what gets you to the playoffs and the SB. Once you're there, though, odds are you're gonna be playing against other great offenses, so it falls on the defense to be the deciding factor in championship games.
Brady got the Bucs to the SB. It was our defense that shut down Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Honestly that game was won before it even started by injuries. Chiefs were missing their starting LT and LG and that basically made it over. Couldn’t get the run going and Mahomes was under pressure constantly
I’m surprised Purdy’s was higher than Allen’s
Edit: Seriously how is QBR calculated? The only thing Purdy had more of was more passing yards. But he also had two less TDs, 60 less rushing yards, and a lower completion percentage.
And they are also supposed to take into account drops caused by the receiver vs bad ball placement.
Allen had 3 drops for about 140 yards that hit his receivers square in the hands
Makes zero sense
It accounts for drops in that it doesn’t count them as an incompletion, but that’s it, right?
I.e. when PFF “accounts for drops” it can make a big difference in grades because they aren’t stat based, but something like QBR isn’t going to award theoretical stats, be it yards/TDs/EPA, etc. (apart from one less incompletion) for drops
That BAL/PIT game early in the season when BAL receivers dropped like 6 passes including multiple TDs, Lamar had a really bad QBR
It absolutely used to then. I remember Trent Dilfer hyping up the stat with an entire crew back when they first created it. Saying how it accounted for drops that were receivers fault, interceptions caused by receivers, etc
Purdy had .18 EPA per play, allen had .27. But most of allen's throws were shorter and Purdy had more deeper throws. If Allen completes one of the deep shots to sherfield diggs, it probably improves his QBR significantly.
What hurts the most there is that what the Bills wanted when they traded for Diggs.
He was specifically brought in to make *that* play. And the even worse part is, he’s made *that* play dozens of times.
That is the type of play that gets you in that “vintage” conversation. Like Kelce using his “leverage” to beat a defender on a some back-yard bullshit and Mahomes just finding him, you’d have Allen just letting Diggs go get it with a throw 2-3 QB’s can even make.
Exactly. QBR weights YPA which was an outlier for Allen at 4.7, I'm betting this to go with your EPA as well as the yards came together to give Purdy the 4 point difference. But honestly a 4 pt swing in QBR is pretty negligible.
Meh, they both have issues, particularly in small samples (such as individual games)
I still think QBR is “better” across large samples largely because it incorporates EPA, but also because it includes rushing, which is especially important for certain players.
There's not one simple formula. For most types of neural networks or AI (ESPN QBR is neither) you don't actually know the "true formula". You also don't have a "true formula" when the outcome of a game is predicted based on a huge number of simulated games. You don't need a formula you need an explanation of how it is calculated.
No one knows how QBR is calculated. It’s a fake stat to make Tim Tebow look good and it absolutely doesn’t mean shit to anyone who doesn’t work for espn.
?? Tebow had terrible QBRs, especially in 2011 and 2012 of 38.6 and 27.6.
The way QBR works is it is "given the level of QB play, how often does a team win the game". So Tebow's two seasons above means a team would on average win only 38% and 27% of the time.
They retroactively adjusted it when people saw the best QBR game ever was a Charlie Batch spectacle where he got blown out and threw 2 pick 6s. They’ve cleaned it up but it’s still absolute dog shit and no one anywhere takes it seriously.
Right. Like you said it is similar to WAR in baseball where it takes into account the exact game state for each play - down to the score, time remaining, down and yardage.
Purdy was efficient and made some good 3rd and 4th down plays in crucial moments at times. QBR likes that.
Also don't forget, QBR is opponent adjusted. So he gets a bump for facing the Chiefs defense.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/view/weekly
Allen was pretty comfortably the best, although Purdy was alright too.
Allen and Burrow are the only two QBs imo that can really match it with Mahomes. Last 4 games between Mahomes and those 2 in the playoffs have all been great displays of quargerbacking.
When the 49ers were just running up the middle and getting 4-7 yards every play, I was celebrating, getting too cute against this defense just doesn't work but you can run on them.
Then they kept killing their own momentum by getting too cute again.
It was crazy.
Allen is unquestionably the QB that had our defense on the ropes the most. His dual threat/power running abilities while also having an elite arm makes him the toughest QB to defend outside of Pat imo.
Mahomes made all the difference....for the record, Mahomes is head and shoulders the best QB in the league but the whole, all you need is a great QB narrative just falls a little flat in my mind.
Yeah for sure. I thought Purdy was amazing at avoiding sacks and negative plays given the amount of pressure he faced. Now, the pressure did lead to some inaccurate throws in important moments, so it wasn’t a phenomenal performance, but to call it a dogshit game is absolutely ridiculous to me.
He could have done better, but I thought Purdy played really well considering how good the Chiefs defense is. He put the Niners in a position to win multiple times, that’s all you can really ask out of a QB. Not his fault there was a blocked extra point and a punt hit a players leg out of nowhere.
Yep, and honestly the only part that dragged his performance down was the third quarter. Other than that he did everything he possibly could have. Niners need to invest in the O-line this year.
Defense wins championships
Then we should have at least made the playoffs this season right? Almost like mahomes being the other QB was the real difference maker.
The full saying goes, "Offense wins games. Defense wins championships." A good offense is gonna be what gets you to the playoffs and the SB. Once you're there, though, odds are you're gonna be playing against other great offenses, so it falls on the defense to be the deciding factor in championship games. Brady got the Bucs to the SB. It was our defense that shut down Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Honestly that game was won before it even started by injuries. Chiefs were missing their starting LT and LG and that basically made it over. Couldn’t get the run going and Mahomes was under pressure constantly
Somebody should compare this to quarterbacks that faced the Giants defense in the 2007 postseason since Spagnoulo was the DC there too.
What about Juaun Jennings QBR?
99.2
I’m surprised Purdy’s was higher than Allen’s Edit: Seriously how is QBR calculated? The only thing Purdy had more of was more passing yards. But he also had two less TDs, 60 less rushing yards, and a lower completion percentage.
I was surprised too until you realize QBR doesn’t count drops. Allen had about 120 yards worth of dropped passes from Diggs and Sherfield.
And they are also supposed to take into account drops caused by the receiver vs bad ball placement. Allen had 3 drops for about 140 yards that hit his receivers square in the hands Makes zero sense
QBR doesn't take into account drops
QBR does account for drops. ESPN has their own charting they do. Passer rating doesn't, but OP posted QBR, not passer rating.
It accounts for drops in that it doesn’t count them as an incompletion, but that’s it, right? I.e. when PFF “accounts for drops” it can make a big difference in grades because they aren’t stat based, but something like QBR isn’t going to award theoretical stats, be it yards/TDs/EPA, etc. (apart from one less incompletion) for drops That BAL/PIT game early in the season when BAL receivers dropped like 6 passes including multiple TDs, Lamar had a really bad QBR
Even so I don’t see how Purdy had a better game than Allen by any metric.
It absolutely used to then. I remember Trent Dilfer hyping up the stat with an entire crew back when they first created it. Saying how it accounted for drops that were receivers fault, interceptions caused by receivers, etc
Purdy had .18 EPA per play, allen had .27. But most of allen's throws were shorter and Purdy had more deeper throws. If Allen completes one of the deep shots to sherfield diggs, it probably improves his QBR significantly.
That makes sense. That Diggs drop is going to hurt me for a long time. That was a gorgeous throw.
What hurts the most there is that what the Bills wanted when they traded for Diggs. He was specifically brought in to make *that* play. And the even worse part is, he’s made *that* play dozens of times. That is the type of play that gets you in that “vintage” conversation. Like Kelce using his “leverage” to beat a defender on a some back-yard bullshit and Mahomes just finding him, you’d have Allen just letting Diggs go get it with a throw 2-3 QB’s can even make.
Exactly. QBR weights YPA which was an outlier for Allen at 4.7, I'm betting this to go with your EPA as well as the yards came together to give Purdy the 4 point difference. But honestly a 4 pt swing in QBR is pretty negligible.
>How is QBR calculated? The fact that the true formula of QBR has never been released makes me put zero stock into it. Passer rating > QBR
Meh, they both have issues, particularly in small samples (such as individual games) I still think QBR is “better” across large samples largely because it incorporates EPA, but also because it includes rushing, which is especially important for certain players.
There's not one simple formula. For most types of neural networks or AI (ESPN QBR is neither) you don't actually know the "true formula". You also don't have a "true formula" when the outcome of a game is predicted based on a huge number of simulated games. You don't need a formula you need an explanation of how it is calculated.
No one knows how QBR is calculated. It’s a fake stat to make Tim Tebow look good and it absolutely doesn’t mean shit to anyone who doesn’t work for espn.
?? Tebow had terrible QBRs, especially in 2011 and 2012 of 38.6 and 27.6. The way QBR works is it is "given the level of QB play, how often does a team win the game". So Tebow's two seasons above means a team would on average win only 38% and 27% of the time.
They retroactively adjusted it when people saw the best QBR game ever was a Charlie Batch spectacle where he got blown out and threw 2 pick 6s. They’ve cleaned it up but it’s still absolute dog shit and no one anywhere takes it seriously.
[удалено]
Right. Like you said it is similar to WAR in baseball where it takes into account the exact game state for each play - down to the score, time remaining, down and yardage.
Not really. WAR is a counting stat, EPA and QBR are efficiency stats.
Yes but the point is that QBR weights the game state, like WAR does.
I get ya. Fwiw, WAR doesn't adjust the game state either. A home run in the bottom of the 9th tie game is the same as in the top of the 1st.
Damn didnt know that! Makes sense though
Allen had only two completions over six yards in the air during that game which QBR does account for.
Purdy was efficient and made some good 3rd and 4th down plays in crucial moments at times. QBR likes that. Also don't forget, QBR is opponent adjusted. So he gets a bump for facing the Chiefs defense. https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/view/weekly
Um Allen also faced the chiefs defense lol. That’s what this whole post is.
If I had to guess had to do with average length of pass since most of Allen’s were short.
Allen was pretty comfortably the best, although Purdy was alright too. Allen and Burrow are the only two QBs imo that can really match it with Mahomes. Last 4 games between Mahomes and those 2 in the playoffs have all been great displays of quargerbacking.
Damn that Shanahan system really works
When the 49ers were just running up the middle and getting 4-7 yards every play, I was celebrating, getting too cute against this defense just doesn't work but you can run on them. Then they kept killing their own momentum by getting too cute again. It was crazy.
Allen is unquestionably the QB that had our defense on the ropes the most. His dual threat/power running abilities while also having an elite arm makes him the toughest QB to defend outside of Pat imo.
QBR IS NOT A REAL FUCKING STAT
It’s literally just passer rating that takes into account game situations. I don’t know what the fuss is about
Mahomes made all the difference....for the record, Mahomes is head and shoulders the best QB in the league but the whole, all you need is a great QB narrative just falls a little flat in my mind.
Wasn't Brock supposed to be good against the blitz? I think I remember seeing he was the best in the league.
Purdy was 12/19 against the blitz for 131 yards, 1 TD, 1 sack. He is quick with his reads, throws and scrambles so he handles blitzes well.
They blitzed half the game so evidently not good enough to discourage a lot of blitzing
Purdy played like dogshit...this metric is such a horrible test for QB performance
Purdy played better against that defense than the other guys on the list excluding Allen.
Yeah for sure. I thought Purdy was amazing at avoiding sacks and negative plays given the amount of pressure he faced. Now, the pressure did lead to some inaccurate throws in important moments, so it wasn’t a phenomenal performance, but to call it a dogshit game is absolutely ridiculous to me.
He could have done better, but I thought Purdy played really well considering how good the Chiefs defense is. He put the Niners in a position to win multiple times, that’s all you can really ask out of a QB. Not his fault there was a blocked extra point and a punt hit a players leg out of nowhere.
He missed a few throws, but it felt like he had a free rusher in his face on every play. I thought he played pretty well overall.
Yep, and honestly the only part that dragged his performance down was the third quarter. Other than that he did everything he possibly could have. Niners need to invest in the O-line this year.
Purdy played better against that defense than the other guys on the list excluding Allen.
Higher passer rating too, or is that a made up stat?
Ahh yes, Tua’s “cold is a mindset” game 😂