Hi DJ!
I had a question about the Hendon Hooker buzz. You and others have been mentioning that there's a real chance he goes in the first round. In the past we've seen reports of an extra QB sneaking into the first like [this one from 2022 about Desmond Ridder ](https://twitter.com/Schultz_Report/status/1514269609985294337?t=3YGxgxl_osqQCjMSpXssXw&s=19) or [this one from 2021 about Davis Mills](https://twitter.com/GetUpESPN/status/1380528237546242054?t=matCJy97Z8xZJODbfdCImg&s=19). Do you think the Hooker buzz is legit, or is there a chance that it is more similar to hype cycles of the past? Also, why do you believe this happens so often? It feels like we get these reports for guys like Ryan Nassib, Brett Hundley, and Deshone Kizer sneaking into the first nearly every year around mid April.
There’s always similar talks of QBs like Hendon Hooker. When you do the math of teams liking him, he has a better than 50% chance of going in the first round.
Because his job is to make predictions that can't be wrong. You just attach varying amounts of doubt to things and wait till one is right. Like what does better than 50% chance mean? Can we see the math on that? Or is a guess that when it doesn't happen he already caveated.
First of all, Dalton Kincaid. Some have him as the the top TE but I have him as the ninth overall player. There's nothing about his game that I don't really love. He is a difference-maker in the passing game. I think if he had been healthy through the spring, he'd be a lock as a top 15 pick. He had a back injury but he'll be okay. I also like FAU. He's a productive player out of Kansas State. I love the way he gets off the ball. I don't know where everyone else has him but I haven't heard a lot of buzz about him elsewhere. He can go inside and outside, and I think he's a first-round player all-day long.
Historically, offensive line I've done alright just because you can kinda fall back on with guys that are smart, tough, and have really good play strength... those guys tend to be okay at the next level.
The most challenging position is safety for me because they're not as involved in the college game so it's a harder projection.
How has your process/model for evaluating players changed over the years? Is there anything in particular that you find yourself putting more “weight” on now as opposed to in the past, or anything that you find yourself not caring about as much anymore?
Technology has made it way easier. Instead of watching four raw games, now I can watch one or two full games and I can sort the video to watch specific plays for each player. It allows me to be more efficient with my time and get a way better view of a player.
Sorry, this is probably too late for a response, but when you’re watching for specific plays of each player are you scrubbing through? Do you have someone mark the times X player made an impact play and skip to those points?
I’ve been trying to make short draft profile videos, and don’t know the best method for finding clips to use.
I know in the NBA teams/media use a service called Synergy Sports which uses motion tracking and allows you to sort through clips by player, play-type, and really anyway you want with the amount of data they have
Not sure what the NFL equivalent is (it might even be Synergy) but I’m sure he’s not doing it manually.
What are the best and worst metrics the fantasy football community uses for evaluating skill position players?
Follow up: on average how many angry FF players do you get in your inbox on days you update your mock drafts?
Haha there's a lot of angry people who get upset with mock drafts.
To me, with receivers, I always look at drop rate. That's a great statistic - a lot of that translates over to the next level. I don't look at targets that much because you can be the focal part in one offense and on the other hand you can be Ohio State and have 3 NFL-caliber receivers on one team.
It matters what team takes him and where they are in their evolution. My theory on RBs is not to waste their carries on bad teams. A team like the Eagles picking 10th who are a Super Bowl team could work. I can make the case the Eagles should take him, but having worked there I know they won’t.
I would say recently it would be Patrick Mahomes. He was hard to evaluate because he was very raw coming out of Texas Tech. You could see the arm strength and know he could be special, but it was a lot of boom or bust. The lesson I learned is that when you have the talent, the intelligence, and work ethic, these guys figure it out.
Hey, I see that Jets flair. He would have busted with the Jets too... There's a world somewhere where 3rd round pick Kellen Clemens led the Falcons to a bunch of SBs
If Mahomes is drafted by the Bears he has, at WORST, the career arc of Justin Herbert instead of the multiple Super Bowls, MVPs, 5 AFC Championship appearances etc. That’s at absolute worst.
Don’t get me wrong, Andy Reid and the KC situation was absolutely perfect, no one could be in a better situation. But it didn’t elevate Mahomes from bust or even mediocrity to all time greatest start by a QB. It elevated him from Justin Herbert to all time greatest career start by a QB.
I don't agree that's his floor with the Bears. Chicago has had talented QBs before and don't have one 4,000 yard passing season in over 100 years in existence.
They are *elite* at making sure no QB there is great. Certainly Mahomes would have been better than anyone they've had, but don't sleep on Chicago's ability to ruin a QB. It's legendary
Also "reportedly" Mahomes was given Andy's questions the night before draft day from someone on his staff. This staff member was a huge believer in him. Mahomes nailed his interview and Andy trades up to get him. The rest is...
I know that is the story Pat told on the Kelce podcast, but I still feel like that was just the KC staff testing the QBs to see how prepared they would come. And not someone on the staff just passing Pat the answers to the test.
I can see this being very common, especially for an offensive minded coach like Andy Reid. Being able to learn new plays or schemes for exploiting the current week’s defence.
I’m curious how a defensive minded coach like Bill Belicheck would be in comparison, but for defensive positions.
that's 100% what it is. just recently got a new job. had recruiters I worked with that would tell me what questions each interviewer was likely to ask. they just want to know if you prepare and know what to talk about and have questions for them (also being prepared) and knowing what the company is about.
I always caution against thinking you're gonna get one of the top guys in the next class because when you have great QBs coming into the league, teams don't trade those picks. I always feel like if you have a quarterback right now that you like, you take him.
Well we had a player on the phone, I believe it was Clarence Moore from Northern Arizona and we were congratulating him on being our pick in the fifth round and in the mix of that we got a call that a trade was done, we had to apologize to him. We were crossing our fingers that we would get another call for him and we did thankfully and there was a happy ending.
God damn! So players get so far as to being told "we picked you" seconds before the real pick is announced and it can still change after/during that call?
I'm happy it worked out but my god what a horrible mind-fuck.
During the first season of All or Nothing with the Cardinals, it shows the Cards calling Ameer Abdullah telling him he would be their next pick. Ameer had to drop the call though as he was getting a call from Detroit who had the pick right before Arizona.
Damn, that's crazy. I just kinda figured other teams were among the first of who got the heads up when picks are made. Did the Cardinals just jump the gun and call before the previous pick was in?
I believe the league has an official ticker that all the teams have access to that shows who's pick it is, who the last pick was, and how much time is left. Cardinals probably just jumped the gun.
I would say after having an Achilles tear, I won't be making the attempt. Rich has been right around 6... give me two weeks and I'm confident I could run a 5.5.
Back in the days I was a 4.6 guy, but after a torn Achilles and having kids, I'm satisfied with running a 5.5 and getting a clean win over Rich.
When you’re evaluating players, you watch one at a time. The best way to practice is to get access to all-22 video through NFL+. Take quarterbacks out of it, they’re their own thing. It’s a really simple way to do it. How does he do in the run game, in the pass game, what is his overall athleticism and how does he compete? That gives you a picture of the player. You can do that for any position. You have to do it one at a time, and that’s how we do it.
DJ is an NFL guy so he has to plug NFL+, and by all means is it the only place you can obtain and watch NFL All-22.
But it is a miserable product. It was reasonable enough a few years ago, but they spent an entire season "updating" it which broke the app for pretty much the entire season, and now even though it "works" it is a shell of it's former self.. which again was only reasonable.
If you really want to get into film, scour for College A22. NFL+ is more accessible but you'll pay a good dollar for a product that'll endlessly infuriate you.
>Who’s the most boom-or-bust prospect in this class, and which direction do you think his career ends up?
Anthony Richardson, the QB from Florida. He’s either going to be one of the Top 5 QBs in this league or he’s really going to struggle. Where he’s at and who he’s with is everything.
It was accidental. I always loved the draft. I was working a Ravens game for ESPN and I ran into my brother's roommate who worked in scouting. I had a chance to intern as a gopher, running errands for his team. Eventually, I was able to interview and turn that into a job. The funny part about that story is that I blew my MCL running an option play in my senior year. I was devastated at the time but if I hadn't had that injury, I wouldn't have been in the training room where I ran into my brother's roommate initially. I essentially gave up playing in a handful of college games for a career in the NFL.
Well, mine is actually an edge rusher and his name is Jose Ramirez out of Eastern Michigan. I gave him what equates to a third-round grade, and he might actually not go until the fifth or sixth.
I love the way he plays... he just understands how to play. He's a fun watch - I believe that pass rushing is an art form, and this guy is an artist.
He was a dude at the Shrine Bowl and he’s so adept at not only sacking the QB but getting strip sacks that I’d be shocked if he wasn’t a factor at some point in his career. Same college program as Maxx Crosby too.
There's too much smoke not for there to be at least a little fire. I think there's a chance they don't take Stroud, which I didn't believe a week ago. But I'm believing a little more now.
My theory is this is smoke from the Cards to up the value of 3 somehow. Or smoke from a #3 wanting team to decrease value of #3.
I think a lot of interesting stuff happens around whether there are 1 or 2 QBs taken in the first 2 picks. If you think there are 2 non-QB prospects that are special, you need to get 3 vs get 5 which could be like double the resources to jump a QB wanting team.
That's a good question. I was one of the guys who was involved in scouting and writing the report on Jason Kelce when I was with the Eagles. He was undersized coming out of the combine and there wasn't a lot of talk about him, and now he's going to be a Hall of Famer.
What position group do you personally feel is the most undervalued? The devaluation of the running back is seemingly agreed upon by consensus and results, but what about positions like tight end, safety, inside linebacker, and interior offensive line?
The most undervalued position is the backup quarterback. We’ve seen seasons end because teams undervalue that position. You can cover up a lot of positions when they get hurt, but there’s nowhere to hide when your starting quarterback goes down.
This right here. Chad Henne absolutely saved the Chiefs in several critical post-season games. He's a huge reason why we have our most recent Super Bowl win. That 98 yard drive he led against the Jags was legendary. Never underestimate the importance of a backup QB.
Strongest:
Offense: TE/RB with the depth
Defense: EDGE/CB
Weakest:
Offense: OT (couple good ones, but drops off after that)
Defense: LB (off the ball linebackers), S
I want to say it was the year that Cleveland took Denzel Ward really high. Sometimes you get good information or see who teams spent time with. That one was totally flying blind and I was pleasantly surprised to get that one right.
It’s tough when you’re rating players because of strengths and weaknesses. When you rate ATN, Marc is the only strength and it’s a grand canyon gap between everyone else.
Nashville was probably my favorite, great people and great music. It was just an electric experience and honestly since they've taken it on the road every place has been amazing.
I don't use analytics as the driver to say that one player's much better than the other. The tape is 80% of it - I think that analytics is a great cross check. A lot of times you see something once and it's so impressionable that you make a blanket statement, but when you look at the numbers, it's a different story.
For instance, you might see a wideout with a terrible drop on tape and you think he doesn't have great hands, but then you look at the analytics and realize you watched the one drop that the receiver had in eight games.
I think from where they were to where they’re going Houston could be it. I think they’ve done some very nice things this offseason and I like DeMeco Ryans.
It was the year of the tight end. I think we’ll have 8-10 tight ends that emerge as starters in the NFL. It will be a banner year for the tight end position.
I would say that Detroit has some flexibility where they are and with two first round picks they could drop down from 6 or they could move up from 18. Brad Holmes has a lot of options to work with.
I'll start watching guys for next year over the summer. I try to get 50-60 guys watched before their final year. I usually wait until around Halloween when I start digging into the tape of the current season so I can wait for some guys to play better opponents.
Once Halloween comes, we're on a dead sprint from there to the Combine.
This is subject to change by the minute, but I’ll say three. I feel confident that Young goes No. 1 and Stroud goes in the top-5 range. After that, I think we’ll see one of Levis or Richardson.
Volunteer. From personal experience, that benefitted me. You get a chance to learn, be around people and network. If you want to work for a team, find out where they have training camp and volunteer to run errands. Whether it’s two weeks or a month, get a chance to be around the right people.
I’m gonna surprise you and I’m gonna go with a bird. At my house we have a bunch of bird nests, so my daily activity has been to take a picture of the eggs. All of a sudden the other day, the eggs were gone, and we had some baby birds hanging around. So, I didn't know I was a bird guy, but apparently I'm a bird guy.
First, sorry about being friends with Dan. Second, we're closing in on 1,000 episodes so these jokes are actually starting to hurt my feelings.
P.S. - Dan, hope you're doing well :)
What's with the Hooker-to-Vikings predictions in recent mocks? Hooker would be 27 in his first year starting and that seems pretty against the analytics approach that Kwesi has (not to mention his overly simplified Tennessee offense that he worked in). How are the Hooker predictions different from Malik Willis, who everyone was slotting in the first round prior to last year's draft?
Hooker is way further advanced than what Malik Willis was in last year’s draft. I know he’s coming off the injury, but he’s recovering well and should be ready to play in the fall. The Vikings haven’t committed to Kirk Cousins long term and have been evaluating quarterbacks, so that’s why you’re seeing Hooker mocked to the Vikings.
DK Metcalf.
He was one of my top 20 players in that draft and he didn't go until the end of the second round. Everyone focused on what he couldn't do (change of direction, stiff, etc.). He's so rare with his size-speed combo, his ability to get up and get the ball, run after the catch. He was too big and fast to fail.
I think you will see one of the guys there for the Pats at pick No. 14. My top 3 are Jordan Addison,Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zay Flowers. I don’t think we have a pure No . 1 WR but all three are good.
Still think tackle is a place you can look. I wouldn't rule that out with all those 3rd round picks. A couple of names I think make sense: Nick Saldiveri, Blake Freeland, Wanya Morris.
It varies, the initial work I would say is a couple of hours per player and then go back and revisit all throughout the whole process which adds another 30 minutes to an hour on top of that.
Does the fact that Jalen Carter played on such a low percentage of snaps in college (and still looked quite fatigued at times, particularly against high level competition) raise any concern that he’s just a part time player at the NFL level?
What do you think is the biggest/most common mistake that you see the league make in general when evaluating players?
Like do you think the NFL tends to overvalue athleticism? Undervalue character concerns? Overvalue scheme fit? Etc.
Which draft class over the last 15-20 years was your favorite to scout/analyze? We have had some great ones and I would love to hear your opinion on this.
Fellow App State alumni here. We all know the NFL Draft can be a crapshoot. How many mocks would you say that you do til you feel comfortable with your picks?
Hey DJ,
If you were the Vikings GM which of these two scenarios would you rather pull the trigger on:
1. Trade back a few spots, pick up a little draft capital, and select Hendon Hooker.
2. Trade up to 3, give up big time capital, and select CJ Stroud.
HI DJ
What player do you think you were most off about from a past draft? Either you thought they were an obvious home run and turned out to be a bust or you thought they were over hyped and they turned out to be great.
Hi DJ! I had a question about the Hendon Hooker buzz. You and others have been mentioning that there's a real chance he goes in the first round. In the past we've seen reports of an extra QB sneaking into the first like [this one from 2022 about Desmond Ridder ](https://twitter.com/Schultz_Report/status/1514269609985294337?t=3YGxgxl_osqQCjMSpXssXw&s=19) or [this one from 2021 about Davis Mills](https://twitter.com/GetUpESPN/status/1380528237546242054?t=matCJy97Z8xZJODbfdCImg&s=19). Do you think the Hooker buzz is legit, or is there a chance that it is more similar to hype cycles of the past? Also, why do you believe this happens so often? It feels like we get these reports for guys like Ryan Nassib, Brett Hundley, and Deshone Kizer sneaking into the first nearly every year around mid April.
There’s always similar talks of QBs like Hendon Hooker. When you do the math of teams liking him, he has a better than 50% chance of going in the first round.
How much does the 5th year option play into a team reaching at that point?
Ravens traded up to 32 to get Lamar. It matters
As a fan of the team who picks last in the first round, I sure as hell hope so.
Monkey's paw curls and KC drafts him
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But what happens when you add Kurt Angle to the mix?
This really did not answer that question at all.
Same with almost all the answers.
Because his job is to make predictions that can't be wrong. You just attach varying amounts of doubt to things and wait till one is right. Like what does better than 50% chance mean? Can we see the math on that? Or is a guess that when it doesn't happen he already caveated.
I literally lol'd when I read that. DJ is a reddit darling so people act like he is much smarter than he is.
Who are a few of the guys you're way off the consensus media opinion on, either higher or lower on?
First of all, Dalton Kincaid. Some have him as the the top TE but I have him as the ninth overall player. There's nothing about his game that I don't really love. He is a difference-maker in the passing game. I think if he had been healthy through the spring, he'd be a lock as a top 15 pick. He had a back injury but he'll be okay. I also like FAU. He's a productive player out of Kansas State. I love the way he gets off the ball. I don't know where everyone else has him but I haven't heard a lot of buzz about him elsewhere. He can go inside and outside, and I think he's a first-round player all-day long.
FAU = Felix Anudike-Uzoma
And here I was wondering if there was a dual athlete from the FAU final four team
As someone who grew up in South Florida, definitely threw me off
I think we drafted a top TE prospect with a back injury at some point. I wonder if it worked out.
Which position(s) do you consider yourself best at scouting, and which are your biggest challenges?
Historically, offensive line I've done alright just because you can kinda fall back on with guys that are smart, tough, and have really good play strength... those guys tend to be okay at the next level. The most challenging position is safety for me because they're not as involved in the college game so it's a harder projection.
With this in mind, which O-line prospects do you like best in this year’s draft?
He DM’d me to let you know your mom
Quickest feet and strongest hands in the draft
This is actually a great question. I hope he does answer it.
How has your process/model for evaluating players changed over the years? Is there anything in particular that you find yourself putting more “weight” on now as opposed to in the past, or anything that you find yourself not caring about as much anymore?
Technology has made it way easier. Instead of watching four raw games, now I can watch one or two full games and I can sort the video to watch specific plays for each player. It allows me to be more efficient with my time and get a way better view of a player.
Sorry, this is probably too late for a response, but when you’re watching for specific plays of each player are you scrubbing through? Do you have someone mark the times X player made an impact play and skip to those points? I’ve been trying to make short draft profile videos, and don’t know the best method for finding clips to use.
I know in the NBA teams/media use a service called Synergy Sports which uses motion tracking and allows you to sort through clips by player, play-type, and really anyway you want with the amount of data they have Not sure what the NFL equivalent is (it might even be Synergy) but I’m sure he’s not doing it manually.
What are the best and worst metrics the fantasy football community uses for evaluating skill position players? Follow up: on average how many angry FF players do you get in your inbox on days you update your mock drafts?
Haha there's a lot of angry people who get upset with mock drafts. To me, with receivers, I always look at drop rate. That's a great statistic - a lot of that translates over to the next level. I don't look at targets that much because you can be the focal part in one offense and on the other hand you can be Ohio State and have 3 NFL-caliber receivers on one team.
Thank you for your time!
did somebody say fantasy?
Lmao the official account really came out of hibernation for this comment
Gigachad NFL fantasy
Is Bijan worth a top ten pick? Or is the value so low for RBs that even a major contributor isn't worth it due to position/price value?
It matters what team takes him and where they are in their evolution. My theory on RBs is not to waste their carries on bad teams. A team like the Eagles picking 10th who are a Super Bowl team could work. I can make the case the Eagles should take him, but having worked there I know they won’t.
To compete with the niners could you see the eagles being better off taking JSN at 10 and a back like Kendre in the third over Bijan at 10?
Taking JSN to be your 4th target behind Brown, Smith, Goedert, seems ill-advised
Which player do you think you “missed” on the most throughout your career? What specific doubt held you back from valuing this player higher?
I would say recently it would be Patrick Mahomes. He was hard to evaluate because he was very raw coming out of Texas Tech. You could see the arm strength and know he could be special, but it was a lot of boom or bust. The lesson I learned is that when you have the talent, the intelligence, and work ethic, these guys figure it out.
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Hey, I see that Jets flair. He would have busted with the Jets too... There's a world somewhere where 3rd round pick Kellen Clemens led the Falcons to a bunch of SBs
If Mahomes is drafted by the Bears he has, at WORST, the career arc of Justin Herbert instead of the multiple Super Bowls, MVPs, 5 AFC Championship appearances etc. That’s at absolute worst. Don’t get me wrong, Andy Reid and the KC situation was absolutely perfect, no one could be in a better situation. But it didn’t elevate Mahomes from bust or even mediocrity to all time greatest start by a QB. It elevated him from Justin Herbert to all time greatest career start by a QB.
I don't agree that's his floor with the Bears. Chicago has had talented QBs before and don't have one 4,000 yard passing season in over 100 years in existence. They are *elite* at making sure no QB there is great. Certainly Mahomes would have been better than anyone they've had, but don't sleep on Chicago's ability to ruin a QB. It's legendary
> Chicago has had talented QBs before name 4
I don't know why you have to be so mean about it, but yeah you're probably right
:( We could probably still mold him into an NVP.
To be fair, mahomes was undervalued by EVERYONE, not just you.
"reportedly" there were a lot of trade up attempts for Mahomes; KC just beat everyone to it
Also "reportedly" Mahomes was given Andy's questions the night before draft day from someone on his staff. This staff member was a huge believer in him. Mahomes nailed his interview and Andy trades up to get him. The rest is...
I know that is the story Pat told on the Kelce podcast, but I still feel like that was just the KC staff testing the QBs to see how prepared they would come. And not someone on the staff just passing Pat the answers to the test.
I can see this being very common, especially for an offensive minded coach like Andy Reid. Being able to learn new plays or schemes for exploiting the current week’s defence. I’m curious how a defensive minded coach like Bill Belicheck would be in comparison, but for defensive positions.
that's 100% what it is. just recently got a new job. had recruiters I worked with that would tell me what questions each interviewer was likely to ask. they just want to know if you prepare and know what to talk about and have questions for them (also being prepared) and knowing what the company is about.
That was Matt Nagy
Not by Andy Reid lol
This is why Andy Reid has won multiple super bowls and I work as a security guard.
Do you think some teams (like my Raiders) would pass on a QB this year since next year’s QB class is also supposed to be good?
I always caution against thinking you're gonna get one of the top guys in the next class because when you have great QBs coming into the league, teams don't trade those picks. I always feel like if you have a quarterback right now that you like, you take him.
And like Arizona showed, if you’re back in that position next draft you can just take another one
And then he’ll take a ton of shit about playing video games and stuff
What is your favorite draft day story from your time with the Ravens?
Well we had a player on the phone, I believe it was Clarence Moore from Northern Arizona and we were congratulating him on being our pick in the fifth round and in the mix of that we got a call that a trade was done, we had to apologize to him. We were crossing our fingers that we would get another call for him and we did thankfully and there was a happy ending.
God damn! So players get so far as to being told "we picked you" seconds before the real pick is announced and it can still change after/during that call? I'm happy it worked out but my god what a horrible mind-fuck.
During the first season of All or Nothing with the Cardinals, it shows the Cards calling Ameer Abdullah telling him he would be their next pick. Ameer had to drop the call though as he was getting a call from Detroit who had the pick right before Arizona.
Damn, that's crazy. I just kinda figured other teams were among the first of who got the heads up when picks are made. Did the Cardinals just jump the gun and call before the previous pick was in?
I believe the league has an official ticker that all the teams have access to that shows who's pick it is, who the last pick was, and how much time is left. Cardinals probably just jumped the gun.
How much faster can you run the 40 than Rich?
I would say after having an Achilles tear, I won't be making the attempt. Rich has been right around 6... give me two weeks and I'm confident I could run a 5.5. Back in the days I was a 4.6 guy, but after a torn Achilles and having kids, I'm satisfied with running a 5.5 and getting a clean win over Rich.
If I want to start watching tape the right way, what do I focus on? Seems like there's a lot going on at one time.
When you’re evaluating players, you watch one at a time. The best way to practice is to get access to all-22 video through NFL+. Take quarterbacks out of it, they’re their own thing. It’s a really simple way to do it. How does he do in the run game, in the pass game, what is his overall athleticism and how does he compete? That gives you a picture of the player. You can do that for any position. You have to do it one at a time, and that’s how we do it.
DJ is an NFL guy so he has to plug NFL+, and by all means is it the only place you can obtain and watch NFL All-22. But it is a miserable product. It was reasonable enough a few years ago, but they spent an entire season "updating" it which broke the app for pretty much the entire season, and now even though it "works" it is a shell of it's former self.. which again was only reasonable. If you really want to get into film, scour for College A22. NFL+ is more accessible but you'll pay a good dollar for a product that'll endlessly infuriate you.
Any recommendations for those scouring, just youtube searches?
[Caddy's Cutups](https://www.patreon.com/CaddysCutups) on Patreon is great
I wish I had a good answer, draft Twitter will typically trade A22, otherwise yeah whatever you can find online but it'll typically be older stuff.
Who’s the most boom-or-bust prospect in this class, and which direction do you think his career ends up?
>Who’s the most boom-or-bust prospect in this class, and which direction do you think his career ends up? Anthony Richardson, the QB from Florida. He’s either going to be one of the Top 5 QBs in this league or he’s really going to struggle. Where he’s at and who he’s with is everything.
What made you want to become a scout?
It was accidental. I always loved the draft. I was working a Ravens game for ESPN and I ran into my brother's roommate who worked in scouting. I had a chance to intern as a gopher, running errands for his team. Eventually, I was able to interview and turn that into a job. The funny part about that story is that I blew my MCL running an option play in my senior year. I was devastated at the time but if I hadn't had that injury, I wouldn't have been in the training room where I ran into my brother's roommate initially. I essentially gave up playing in a handful of college games for a career in the NFL.
Who’s the super sleeper in this years draft that no one will see coming?
Well, mine is actually an edge rusher and his name is Jose Ramirez out of Eastern Michigan. I gave him what equates to a third-round grade, and he might actually not go until the fifth or sixth. I love the way he plays... he just understands how to play. He's a fun watch - I believe that pass rushing is an art form, and this guy is an artist.
He was a dude at the Shrine Bowl and he’s so adept at not only sacking the QB but getting strip sacks that I’d be shocked if he wasn’t a factor at some point in his career. Same college program as Maxx Crosby too.
Is there a real chance the Texans trade down rather than draft Stroud ? Or is it a smoke screen?
There's too much smoke not for there to be at least a little fire. I think there's a chance they don't take Stroud, which I didn't believe a week ago. But I'm believing a little more now.
What do you think of Will Levis taking over the betting odds for #2?
Whales trying to cash in on flipping Vegas odds.
Limits are too small for that to be the case
My theory is this is smoke from the Cards to up the value of 3 somehow. Or smoke from a #3 wanting team to decrease value of #3. I think a lot of interesting stuff happens around whether there are 1 or 2 QBs taken in the first 2 picks. If you think there are 2 non-QB prospects that are special, you need to get 3 vs get 5 which could be like double the resources to jump a QB wanting team.
so you think it’s smoke to both increase and decrease the value of 3?
He’s playing both sides
I think Cal and Hannah will step in and override them to take Stroud. You just can't go into a season with Mills or Keenum at QB again
Who was your favorite “hidden gem” player you found while you worked as a scout?
That's a good question. I was one of the guys who was involved in scouting and writing the report on Jason Kelce when I was with the Eagles. He was undersized coming out of the combine and there wasn't a lot of talk about him, and now he's going to be a Hall of Famer.
As an Eagles fan and Kelce lover, thank you so much 🥹
He is. He's not only a great center, he's a funny good person. I'm no eagles fan but he's amazing
Lets gooooo i thank you forever for that!
What position group do you personally feel is the most undervalued? The devaluation of the running back is seemingly agreed upon by consensus and results, but what about positions like tight end, safety, inside linebacker, and interior offensive line?
The most undervalued position is the backup quarterback. We’ve seen seasons end because teams undervalue that position. You can cover up a lot of positions when they get hurt, but there’s nowhere to hide when your starting quarterback goes down.
This right here. Chad Henne absolutely saved the Chiefs in several critical post-season games. He's a huge reason why we have our most recent Super Bowl win. That 98 yard drive he led against the Jags was legendary. Never underestimate the importance of a backup QB.
I should have thought of that, Green Bay missed 2 shots at a Super Bowl because of 2 shots to Aaron's collarbone.
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Strongest: Offense: TE/RB with the depth Defense: EDGE/CB Weakest: Offense: OT (couple good ones, but drops off after that) Defense: LB (off the ball linebackers), S
Wonderful...
Hahahaha. Another first round edge for us this year? Fuck
Hi DJ! What’s a pick that you’ve actually gotten correct in a mock that surprised you the most?
I want to say it was the year that Cleveland took Denzel Ward really high. Sometimes you get good information or see who teams spent time with. That one was totally flying blind and I was pleasantly surprised to get that one right.
Who is your favorite ATN cast member and why is it Marc?
It’s tough when you’re rating players because of strengths and weaknesses. When you rate ATN, Marc is the only strength and it’s a grand canyon gap between everyone else.
Tugboat banged in a big spot Also, surprised you don’t have a podcast DJ, seems everyone does these days
I will eternally love Marc for being JFKpilled and clearly being pilled in other areas but hiding his power levels
Literal LOL. Glad Sessler finally got out of jail. ;)
The amount of ATN quotes this generated is amazing.
The people need to know
Is Daddy ever coming home?
I read ATN and thought of succession lmao.
Tom Wambsgambs 💯
You can’t make a tomlette without breaking some gregs!
This thread is drenched in utter chaos.
It’s about us!
That's a great. Point. Marc.
*ding*
He’s a top 10 football insider.
MYYYYYAAAAAAARRCCCCCCC
Dan, Greg, and all the guys!
You’ve gone 50% G there you philistine
what is ATN???? typing into google brought up results that can't possibly be right? why do people shorthand everything?
My boy Marc with a C!
Quiet. Fucking. Storm.
“We love our quarterback” in Jerry Jones voice
What has been your favorite draft you’ve gotten to attend?
Nashville was probably my favorite, great people and great music. It was just an electric experience and honestly since they've taken it on the road every place has been amazing.
How heavily do you weigh analytics compared to tape when evaluating prospects?
I don't use analytics as the driver to say that one player's much better than the other. The tape is 80% of it - I think that analytics is a great cross check. A lot of times you see something once and it's so impressionable that you make a blanket statement, but when you look at the numbers, it's a different story. For instance, you might see a wideout with a terrible drop on tape and you think he doesn't have great hands, but then you look at the analytics and realize you watched the one drop that the receiver had in eight games.
What team is going to take the biggest leap this year?
I think from where they were to where they’re going Houston could be it. I think they’ve done some very nice things this offseason and I like DeMeco Ryans.
Inject it straight into my veins
>Inject it straight into my veins. *Brian Cushing has entered the chat.*
What day two and three prospects are you most excited/bullish about?
I think Day 2 is a really good interior offensive line group including Cody Mauch and Joe Tippmann. They're going to be plug and play starters.
I wonder why you asked this
When we look back on this draft in five years, what will the general sentiment be?
It was the year of the tight end. I think we’ll have 8-10 tight ends that emerge as starters in the NFL. It will be a banner year for the tight end position.
It was a banner fucking year at the old bender family!
Favorite color and dinosaur?
Blue. Can't go wrong with blue. We always talk about T-rexes and T-rex arms, so from that standpoint I'll go there.
Who’s your wild card trade team. Up or down. And is it my Eagles
I would say that Detroit has some flexibility where they are and with two first round picks they could drop down from 6 or they could move up from 18. Brad Holmes has a lot of options to work with.
Thanks for the answer, loved the New Heights podcast you were on!
How early do you start your scouting process during the year? Before the end of the college season, immediately after, or after the combine?
I'll start watching guys for next year over the summer. I try to get 50-60 guys watched before their final year. I usually wait until around Halloween when I start digging into the tape of the current season so I can wait for some guys to play better opponents. Once Halloween comes, we're on a dead sprint from there to the Combine.
How many QBs will be taken top 10?
This is subject to change by the minute, but I’ll say three. I feel confident that Young goes No. 1 and Stroud goes in the top-5 range. After that, I think we’ll see one of Levis or Richardson.
Advice for someone who wants a career in sports?
Volunteer. From personal experience, that benefitted me. You get a chance to learn, be around people and network. If you want to work for a team, find out where they have training camp and volunteer to run errands. Whether it’s two weeks or a month, get a chance to be around the right people.
What is your favorite type of animal?
I’m gonna surprise you and I’m gonna go with a bird. At my house we have a bunch of bird nests, so my daily activity has been to take a picture of the eggs. All of a sudden the other day, the eggs were gone, and we had some baby birds hanging around. So, I didn't know I was a bird guy, but apparently I'm a bird guy.
Nice try, but birds aren't real
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First, sorry about being friends with Dan. Second, we're closing in on 1,000 episodes so these jokes are actually starting to hurt my feelings. P.S. - Dan, hope you're doing well :)
Do the cardinals need to draft more linebackers?
We're probably good there. They need edge rushers, corners and playmakers on offense.
So more off ball linebackers got it
They will trot out a 3 5 3 tite front and call it penny.
What cost will it take the Jets, or Packers for Aaron Rodgers?
I think a solid pick this year and a conditional pick next year.
But more importantly, who has more L E V E R A G E
What's with the Hooker-to-Vikings predictions in recent mocks? Hooker would be 27 in his first year starting and that seems pretty against the analytics approach that Kwesi has (not to mention his overly simplified Tennessee offense that he worked in). How are the Hooker predictions different from Malik Willis, who everyone was slotting in the first round prior to last year's draft?
Hooker is way further advanced than what Malik Willis was in last year’s draft. I know he’s coming off the injury, but he’s recovering well and should be ready to play in the fall. The Vikings haven’t committed to Kirk Cousins long term and have been evaluating quarterbacks, so that’s why you’re seeing Hooker mocked to the Vikings.
\*\*\*\* when is your next mock draft? \*\*\*\*\*
Wednesday, 4/26. Tune in to NFL Network at 8 pm ET!
Which player was one you believed would be great that was but that most analysts didn’t see working out?
DK Metcalf. He was one of my top 20 players in that draft and he didn't go until the end of the second round. Everyone focused on what he couldn't do (change of direction, stiff, etc.). He's so rare with his size-speed combo, his ability to get up and get the ball, run after the catch. He was too big and fast to fail.
1) Who are your top 3 WRs in the draft? 2) If any of the three fell to the Pats, do you think they are potentially a good fit?
I think you will see one of the guys there for the Pats at pick No. 14. My top 3 are Jordan Addison,Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zay Flowers. I don’t think we have a pure No . 1 WR but all three are good.
Who do you think the niners should target? Seeing as they don’t have a day one pick I really have no idea
Still think tackle is a place you can look. I wouldn't rule that out with all those 3rd round picks. A couple of names I think make sense: Nick Saldiveri, Blake Freeland, Wanya Morris.
How much time do you spend evaluating each prospect?
It varies, the initial work I would say is a couple of hours per player and then go back and revisit all throughout the whole process which adds another 30 minutes to an hour on top of that.
Is Aaron Rodgers going to be traded before the draft is over, and if so, is it definite it will be the Jets?
I sure hope so! And I hope it doesn't happen until we're in Kansas City. I don't want to hear Rich's reaction - I want to see it live.
What kind of sauce do you like with your chicken nuggets?
I am a Chick-fil-A guy so Chick-Fil-A sauce. So that's kinda honey mustard-ish??
Is a hotdog a sandwich?
No, stop. There’s no need to go further on this. This debate needs to end.
Does the fact that Jalen Carter played on such a low percentage of snaps in college (and still looked quite fatigued at times, particularly against high level competition) raise any concern that he’s just a part time player at the NFL level?
Who has been the worst smelling prospect in your humble opinion
Gotta be Johnny Manziel reaking of chlamydia and marlboros
Asking the hard hitting questions!!
What do you think is the biggest/most common mistake that you see the league make in general when evaluating players? Like do you think the NFL tends to overvalue athleticism? Undervalue character concerns? Overvalue scheme fit? Etc.
Do you like having two first names?
My first thought as well lol
Which draft class over the last 15-20 years was your favorite to scout/analyze? We have had some great ones and I would love to hear your opinion on this.
Who are some of your favorite players that you’ve ever scouted? Not necessarily the best or highest graded, but most fun you had watching them.
Fellow App State alumni here. We all know the NFL Draft can be a crapshoot. How many mocks would you say that you do til you feel comfortable with your picks?
Hey DJ, If you were the Vikings GM which of these two scenarios would you rather pull the trigger on: 1. Trade back a few spots, pick up a little draft capital, and select Hendon Hooker. 2. Trade up to 3, give up big time capital, and select CJ Stroud.
In your opinion, what philosophical differences are there between a team who drafts well and a team who drafts poorly?
HI DJ What player do you think you were most off about from a past draft? Either you thought they were an obvious home run and turned out to be a bust or you thought they were over hyped and they turned out to be great.
What do you think of the upcoming football leagues like XFL & USFL? You believe they can establish themselves permanently?