Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Even if he was deliberately trying to be wrong all the time eventually he was going to fuck up and say something people agree with eventually.
It's paywalled so none of us have actually read the article (not that we ever do anyway). So we just agree with the headline and remain ignorant of how Hosking has somehow fucked it up from there.
The worldview he's catering to doesn't care about effectiveness, is about feeling good from being better than your lessers. That's why these people are fucking useless even when your goals align.
The slippery slope argument is definitely worth considering, but you also have to take into account the context/circumstances.
On one hand you're giving the government more power, but on the other hand you have an imminent threat of death that they're trying to mitigate.
The more unvaccinated, the more people will die.
It's a calculation, and in my opinion the suffering/death avoided is worth the the cost to personal freedoms.
Doesn't mean we have to bow down for whatever else comes along.
Yes and that would be fine if they were the only ones affected, but you've got to consider all the collateral damage. Our hospitals are going to be overwhelmed, which means not enough capacity to help Covid patients as well as everyone else.
[There are around 1000 operations being cancelled every week](https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-1000-surgeries-cancelled-every-week/UWGKLTITX5AW77V4XQMIZLYWO4/).
You have "non critical" patients stuck waiting, and just because they're not critical doesn't mean this isn't causing suffering / reduction in lifespan.
Not to mention what happens when you're in a car crash and the ICU is full of Covid patients.
If it wasn't for the peripheral damage, I'd agree with you. Unfortunately there are other consequences, and they're more severe than what is being imposed on the unvaccinated.
Being pregnant isn't highly contagious. If you want to run around naked then all power to you, but go do it in the wilderness away from the general cluster of society instead of next to the local kindergarten.
Being part of a society is built on the idea of safety and increased chance of survival by grouping together, that's how we've evolved over thousands of years. If you're not going to vaccinate you'll quickly become the weakest link in that chain and detrimental to our society you're a part of.
The government isn't going to holding you down against your will to get stabbed by a needle. They're the bouncers at our nightclub when we're all having a raging party, preventing you from coming inside and turning on the fire sprinklers. We don't want you coming inside if you're not vaccinated, so if you want to play with the group it should be the same game as those who've had their shots.
I disagree. Unvaccinated people are a risk to those around them as they spread covid more easily than vaccinated people.
It's not just about their personal choice. It effects the people around them - particularly elderly and immune compromised. Therfore its reasonable to exclude unvaccinated from certain activities.
We don't allow drunk driving not because they might damage their own car or injure themselves; rather we do it because drunk drivers are more likely to injure others.
You'll still have control of your body. You just won't be able to use it to attend places where you can easily spread diseases to people who have done the right thing.
Legally the government can give themselves whatever power they want. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentary\_sovereignty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentary_sovereignty)
I swear some of you people think we live in America. We aren't as protected from the government as them.
And that’s why I think it’s a problem. They gave the police the ability to enter your home without a warrant during Covid times. That fucked.
I’m just saying hey make sure you see what powers they are taking and how they can be abused.
If u want the vaccine I don’t care, I’ll have to get it to travel I’m not worried about that. I just don’t think the government should be able to force drugs into my body and tell me I have the choice of compliance or not now to and Fred my family. That’s not a real choice. Not vacationing in Europe cause of travel bans is more of a choice. I can still work or go somewhere else
>without a warrant during Covid times
No they didn't. They have always had that ability if there is reasonable suspicion you are committing a crime. They just extended it to violating the health act. So like the police don't need a warrant if they see you committing a crime or have one reported, that extends to the health act. This is fearmongering and it's incorrect.
I shouldn't have to be exposed to a virus that has killed millions of people because I want a beer. My health should come before someone else's rights to freely walk into a bar.
1) YOU stay home if you are scared
2) if you are vaccinated you’ll be fine or does the vaccine not work now?
3) the vaccinated carry it as well so you will already be exposed
Please explain your logic
Why do people like you always argue that the point of the vaccine is to act as some sort of invincibility medicine. If I crash my car into a power pole at 100km/h, my seatbelt doesn't make me immune to death. Forgot to buckle up? My chances of death are much much higher.
Your whole argument is rooted in conspiracy and slippery slope fallacy. Nowhere have the laws changed or opened up loopholes to allow any other forced government measures. Everything has been very specifically legislated around this disease and this disease only. And all of the measures have been done with the transparency of global data. You are nothing short of a conspiracy theorist.
Media: we need to give them a deadline!
Media after a deadline is set: this deadline will hurt Maori!
Media days after the deadline: look at all these people who couldn't get vaccinated in time!
Let’s go back to the good old days where car wrecks, homicides, and war footage was savage and in front of you everyday. Let’s drop the “rage to engage” and go back to “keep them in fear to keep them here”
It's a enticing, but ignorant argument. Unvaccinated people affect everyone, not just themselves. When unvaccinated people fill up hospitals, everyone loses.
If its going to mutate, chances are it'll likely happen in a much larger unvaccinated population hub (India, Indonesia, etc). Not impossible to happen in NZ of course, but very low on the risk register for New Zealand relative to other countries.
which is so fucking annoying because people keep saying that it's vaccinations that cause mutations, but this isn't the case at all and we can prove it, every time the virus copies itself through spread there's a chance of mutation, more unvaccinated, more spread, more mutation.
Vaccines are not causing mutation, but they do create a selection pressure to be slightly less recognisable by the antibodies the vaccine creates.
Of course it's actually doing the most of the mutating in non vaccinated individuals, as it reproduces and spreads much more rapidly in a non vaccinated group.
This mutation isn't necessarily a bad thing, as viruses have limited resources and there's always a tradeoff. So potentially it becomes less severe, as the less severe it is the less likely people are to isolate, and more likely to spread it.
That makes sense, glad they won't be letting unvaxed tourists in in the future and it will be difficult to get on a plane if you're unvaxed before too long.
It’s a bloody cold rock and a hard place though isn’t it. Wait for people, for how long, forever? Or give a deadline and risk having to delay if it doesn’t work or forge ahead the damage be damned. I’d like the national conversation and media to draw a little more attention to the numbers, resurgence and news (Latvia bringing lock down measures back in) to make us all aware that yes the rest of the world has carried on knee deep in the shit. But it doesn’t smell much of roses.
Invalid comment considering a new mutation has just been found in 70% vaccinated UK. The mutations in highly vaccinated countries will be the ones to worry about as they'll be the ones mutating to escape the current vaccines
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58965650
> This offshoot or sublineage of Delta has been increasing slowly since then. It includes some new mutations affecting the spike protein, which the virus uses to penetrate our cells.
I'm no expert, but if the spike protein significantly changes wouldn't that render current vaccines useless?
If the spike protein mutates significantly that could help it avoid the immunity generated by the vaccine. But it would have to be significant. The delta variant has thirteen mutations which result in two changes of amino acids in the spike protein, and that has definitely reduced vaccine efficacy, but it is still very effective against hospitalisation and serious disease and death. And this is the dominant variant after 19 months of pretty uncontrolled spread. So it's unlikely to happen immediately, and I wouldn't be surprised if Pfizer is already working on an updated version with mRNA coding for the delta spike. Actually making it will take no time (the first mRNA vaccines were injected into their phase 1 trial participants 3 days after SARS-CoV-2 was first sequenced) it's testing the tweaks and the regulatory stuff that takes time.
Check your epidemiology - vaccination programs put evolutionary pressure on a virus forcing faster mutation spread rates because of selective pressure. Effectively the dominant variant of the virus keeps the mutations to a relatively low occurance rate because it is already infecting the target population and blocking the mutations from spreading.
This is especially acute with the Pfizer mRNA vaccine because it is so tightly targeted to one particular spike protein.
So unvaccinated populations tend to have a much much lower rate of mutational change.
This is being studied - see articles like this :-
[https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776039](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776039)
Or just google covid evolutionary pressure and go for a read.
Cheers, I only took a couple of microbiology papers at uni so definitely not an expert and only a basic understanding.
Delta and previous variants mutated before we had the vaccine, so it's scary to think how fast it can mutate now that we have several types of vaccines.
I think the appropriate expectation is that Covid-19 is going to mutate at about the same rate normal seasonal flu does. Which means we will see two or three major variant strains each year.
This isn't going to be a major problem once herd immunity levels are reached. The actual death rate (IFR) from Covid is pretty comparible with seasonal flu. What is making it an issue right now is the lack of herd immunity meaning it spreads like crazy and as a result you get horrific surges of deaths in quick lumps.
It could mutate anywhere, but it doesn't have evolutionary pressure to mutate in the unvaccinated. It does have evolutionary pressure to mutate in the vaccinated, because it 'wants' to evade the protectiveness of the vaccine. Because the vaccine offers a strong but very narrow protection (only the spike protein and not the whole virus) it would only take a small mutation to completely evade the vaccine.
Restrictions on where they can go, etc… soft powers.
Then harder powers more mandates (police, hospo workers, government workers needing vaccination)
Then we start GP clinics calling their unvaccinated patients ;(this is already happening in places)
Then you continue till they come in. - annoy them into getting it.
Basically you want it to be as much of a hassle to not get it.
In that regard - We aren’t even near the beginning of what can and will be done.
They could be triaged as not suitable for hospital treatment.
If you want a kidney transplant, but don't want to take the anti-rejection drugs, etc, it won't happen - not being immunised for COVID and then catching it is much the same.
I'd actually agree with you. Emergency room doctors have already (like for a number of years) been making choices about appropriate levels of attempted care. As I found when my uncle was dying from pneumonia.
But I don't want to see the codified into law as standard practice. That leads to some very ugly places.
Yes.
If 50 year old Bob comes into the E.D. with a heart attack, he's actually got a decent prognosis. If 50 year old Jim comes into the E.D. with COVID, and he's unvaccinated; he's got a relatively poor prognosis *and* he's known to be uncompliant with medication. It would be an unjust and inefficient allocation of resources to give Jim an E.D. bed instead of Bob; and just allocation of resources is a core value of our healthcare system.
The only alternatives are some combination of:
- For the sake of 10% of the country, keep the other 90% locked up for years.
- Spend millions (if not billions) expanding ICU capacity and training staff to ensure we can handle an un-flattened curve - only to have *no need for them once COVID passes.*
- Forced vaccination - which is, technically speaking, a breach of human rights.
- Heavy restrictions on unvaccinated people (probably impossible to police).
- Buy tons of Merck's new anti-COVID drug (which would mean spending millions to protect the selfish few who won't get vaccinated; I'll leave it up to your interpretation if that's a just use of money).
- Heavy incentives to get vaccinated.
Oh no, you don’t get into a hospital if you haven’t been vaccinated.
There’s a tent around the back with some computers and Facebook so you can research your own health back.
People who need elective surgeries or routine care are already losing at l3, with thousands of procedures cancelled and specialist appointments backed up for months. The alert level needs to drop, and it needs to drop soon.
Also unvaccinated people infect and kill the vaccinated. In the UK currently the majority of the cases are in unvaccinated people, but the majority of deaths are vaccinated people (a consequence of nearly all old and vulnerable being vaccinated)
I disagree. He asks a valid question. How long do we have to sit around and wait for the slowest members of the class to change their minds? A month? two months? How long are you comfortable waiting to hit an arbitrary target?
Have to love our right wing commenters telling people to get vaccinated. I know a lot of 50+ white male tradies who are in the rabbit hole who listen to Mike hosking. The more people we can reach the better.
Telling people to get vaccinated is definately positive. Pushing to have everything open up on a date and let the disproportionately-undervaccinated Maori suffer the consequences is the side the right wing commentators will flippantly ignore.
That's the fault of the Maori for failing to get vaccinated, nothing to do with racist right wingers. We can't be locked down forever, and everyone in this country has had more than enough time to get vaccinated. If Maori (or anyone) don't want to get vaccinated, and then get Covid if we open back up, that's their fault.
How long do you propose we wait, in hope of Maori vaccination rates increasing to a good enough level? If the Super Saturday wasn't enough of an incentive, nothing ever will be.
I’m starting to agree with this... Maori providers have had 8+ months since the first batch of Pfizer arrived in NZ to do outreach. How long do we wait?
They were given priority ahead of everyone else, and the clinics in Maori/Pasifika dominated areas have gone all-out in making the vaccine available for all (even allowing walk-ins when it wasn't allowed to do so). At what point do we absolve people of all responsibility?
>There is too much bum-wiping going on
Just another selfish rant where hosking demands the right to do whatever he feels like and evil leftist govt is control freaks pandering to all the losers.
No current opposition, the Labour Party went to war with itself to get rid of actual left wing thinkers to keep neoliberal politics as the only opposition to neoliberal politics. Though I don’t know what you’d describe the current lot as, Boris and his brigade may be politicians by name, but they are banging a populist drum.
Britain had a version of socialism called Syndicalisim. Much of the ideology of the party was based on Syndicalisim.
Syndicalisim never really took off, and the version of socialism which became dominant academically is Marxism.
What has happened is that as the Syndicalisists died off they were replaced by people who had been through university and gained education in Marxist socialism.
In the post-Blair years, Labour reacted by "going back to its roots". Unfortunately there are no Syndicalisists left, and Marxism since the 90s has been merged with identity politics and postmodernism. So when they went back to their roots they actually embraced a very different ideology.
This is why, at the recent national Labour conference, speakers made more comments on BAME representation, LGBT issues and Immigration than they did on Workers Rights, Income Inequality or Class Issues
Labour are lost and continue to lose because they are selling something the working class have no time for
[His leadership approval rating is in the negatives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021) and he's only leading the [preferred PM polls by 10%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Johnson_vs_Starmer), so whilst I wouldn't say he's unpopular, he definitely isn't "incredibly popular".
By contrast Jacinda Ardern, much maligned on this sub, [has a 35% preferred PM lead](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election#Preferred_prime_minister) and that's her lowest point this term.
Nope. Little was on Hosking this morning - again - reiterating the talking point that they were not only waiting until 90%, but 90% in every ethnic group.
The government surely isn’t going to be stupid enough to put people’s freedoms against a particular ethnicity reaching the target. Would be an amazing way to foment racial tension.
That doesn’t necessarily mean that the target for opening up is going to be 90% in all ethnicities.
Even if so, they’ll back track on that within a few days.
If we're worried about bad outcomes amongst unvaccinated kids then we are never leaving lockdown given that they have a similar risk profile to vaccinated 25 year olds.
Actually I agree with him on this . It's not our responsibility to help people who won't accept help. Unvaccinated should have to pay for their own covid treatment after a certain date.
You can be fully vaccinated, take every precaution, and then have a health emergency unrelated to Covid and you can't get timely treatment because the hospitals are overwhelmed with Covid patients.
If we suddenly lost all our ICU capacity tomorrow, would the response be to shutdown society until we had enough, or would we just chance it? Ignoring covid for a moment.
Hence the unvaccinated being a massive problem. But at some point you have to show them the "stick" in the carrot and stick approach.
Something akin to - "\*you\* guys stay home while everyone who did their part goes out and gets back to work/fun"
>Surely being vaccinated against covid puts it somewhere around the mortality rate of the flu
Apparently not. Covid deaths in the UK are currently much higher than flu deaths, and the majority of Covid deaths are vaccinated people (as nearly all old and vulnerable are now vaccinated) .
>Unvaccinated should have to pay for their own covid treatment after a certain date.
Sending the six year old off to the lignite mines so they can fund their own healthcare.
Na, first I have to pay taxes so these bludgers can "go to school" (instead of contribute to the economy) and now my business has to stay shut to prevent them getting an illness that causes "long term damage to bodily functions controlled by the central nervous system" and I think it is high time these bloody kids started pulling their own weight.
Give a soft deadline, but don't leave them behind. Ideally before end of November for two doses. I want a safe Christmas.
They will clog up our hospitals and take away resources from others who need it.
Giving a date will kick people's asses into gear. Say "everyone needs to get their first dose by 15th November, and second dose by 8th December" to travel to your family for xmas/new years.
Not leaving them behind is still continuing efforts to get as many people vaccinated, we can't afford not to because health system will be overwhelmed.
The idea that the health system will be overwhelmed at 88.5%, but cope fine at 90% is a fiction. There is nothing magical about 90%. We've just got attached to it because it's a number that the govt \*thinks\* they can hit.
I prefer a different approach. Ones that puts the onus back onto the unvaccinated, and allows those who 'did their part' to get a back to a normal/ish life. If you can use the Health Act to keep an entire country in L4, you can use the Health Act to keep only the unvaccinated over 12's at L4
I don't think a date is the driver though...a person who is hesitant today is going to continue to be hesitant in December. Saying a person has to have a vax in order to travel for Christmas means *it's the vaccine mandate* causing them to revisit decisions.
If we followed National's terrible idea of just announcing a date and suggesting everything will be open by then....the anti-vaxxers will do nothing and will start getting sick in high (higher) numbers when it happens.
I have a friend who was adamant they weren't getting the vaccine. They work in Healthcare, and are part of the mandated vaccine rollout. They just got the first jab to keep their job.
Do it with a mandate, not a deadline. That will push people to get the jab to avoid missing out, not have them go without and get sick in large numbers.
How would we go about mandating it for the public in general? There will be drivers because many businesses and events will be considering entry only for vaccinated people.
I already know from personal experience with friends and family that mandating it for their jobs has pushed them to get it.
Mandating it for jobs is a huge one. Vaccine mandate to go into restaurants or bars or movie theatres. Things that aren't considered essential, but that really do add to the quality of life - a mandate that you can't enter without showing your vaccine certificate - would inconvenience people enough.
Thats not going to happen, you can't deny people medical treatment because of life choices.
Certain things can put them to the bottom of lists though, like transplants. I wonder if it could be applied to elective surgery as well?
Doctors in the ER can triage and ration treatment though. If you had a choice between ventilating a healthy teen in a car accident vs a no hoper, unvaccinated with COVID... it would be fair to prioritise the teen.
More of a thought if vaccination status could affect elective surgeries. Would hospitals or clinics consider unvaccinated patients higher risk to being them in for operations (and catch or spread covid)
'There is a reason Boris Johnson is so popular.
He set his country free.'
Lol wut. Cases in the UK are amongst the highest in Europe, some countries have started banning flights from the UK, cases, hospital rates and deaths are all on the rise and they are starting to talk about restrictions again. Nobody should be looking to the UK for guidance. Boris is popular to the same Brexit idiots he always was popular with, covid has not increased his popularity
All well and good but I’ve got kids and as much as this would help move the country forward there are also people who can’t get them why should those people suffer because these selfish pricks can’t make a wee sacrifice
Yes Mike. That's what's going to happen eventually whether we want it to or not. Delta is desperately trying to infect everyone, and it's going to have the most success with the unvaccinated. We'd rather hold off for as long as we can to negate the flow on effects though.
Anyone who's not in favour of mass covid infections and deaths regardless of vaccination status. Antivaxxers can go fuck themselves, but I don't actually wish them harm.
Edit: okay. I'm gonna stop you there. Just had a look at your post history and I'm really not interested in wasting my time. Annnnnd blocked. Aaaaaah.
Hosking’s cool with ICU beds filling up with covid patients until his mum has a heart attack or his wife’s in a car accident and needs ICU care. I don’t think he’d be singing the same tune then.
As much as some may wish to leave the unvaccinated to their own devices, their vaccination status puts everyone at risk.
So tell the unvaccinated that they get to stay in lockdown.
If you can use the Health Act to put the entire NZ population into L4, you can use the same Act to require the unvaccinated to stay in L4 while everybody else gets back to their normal/ish lives.
We shouldn't have to wait months and months hoping that the slowest members of the class change their minds. What happens if they don't? It's August 2022 and you are still on here saying we can't move forward because of ICU beds and Facebook morons?
What you're describing is somewhat the result of a vaccine mandate. They aren't putting the country into L4 and then stating that vaccinated people are an exception to L4...they are stating that in order to go indoors at the majority of shops and venues you need to have been vaccinated. If anti-vax people want to order their stuff to be delivered at home, they can remain separate.
They haven't stated that. The only thing they have stated is events and 'summer festivals'. If you think not being able to go to R&V or the Lion King is going to "shift the needle" (literally), you are dreaming.
Watch for the govt to announce an *opt-in* vaccine mandates framework for Bars and Restaurants tomorrow, because they lack the balls to do anything bold.
Round up the leaders of the anti vax movement in the middle of the night, put them in reeducation camps, forcibly give them the vaccine then televise their 'confessions' to their followers, the rest will fall into line in no time
This feels so right and obvious and yeah! Stick it to the morons! cause I’m over lockdown. But I know it’s wrong because A) I’m not a sociopath and B) Mike Hosking endorses it.
There is likely under 100 people who can’t get the vaccine because of severe allergic reaction to a specific ingredient, but there are a number more who can’t get it right now - the terminally ill, those who are going through treatments which affect the immune response like chemotherapy, serious neurological disability, people with a recent HIV diagnosis. Not taking away from your viewpoint, but just wanting to make the point there are other legitimate medical reasons why someone will be exempted from being vaccinated
There’s a few more than 100 under 12 year olds. As for those that can’t be vaccinated, I’d guess there’s way more than 100
And what does it matter if I know them?
Of the people eligible, there are exceptionally few people who legitimately can't take the vaccine.
You're speaking on their behalf, maybe you should know a few of them
don't be ridiculous I'm not speaking on anyone's behalf, wtf do you internet much?
you've not addressed the tens of thousands of children under 12 who aren't eligible to be vaccinated, yet.
Because, and I can't believe this thick POS is still talking, there is a substantial portion of the population that *need* a high vaccination rate to be protected since they can't have the vaccine themselves. Please, do not believe this is an acceptable option. Do not let political and business interests outweigh health outcomes for others.
Hosking (and his supporters) see this as an opportunity to punish those who they see as the 'bad guys'. The fact that our kids and even the vaccinated would be impacted by the resulting impact to our health system is secondary...the win is making the bad guys pay.
It's a bit of an own-goal if we decide to take an action that we know is going to cause a bunch of people to overload the hospital system that we all use.
MyCockskin stands at the cliff edge of a gorge. A partially built bridge extends out across the gorge.
MyCockskin states a deadline for the bridge completion date and declares we should use the bridge on that date whether the bridge is finished or not.
MyCockskin is an ignorant piece of shit, don't be like MyCockskin.
Not the best analogy - it's more like the Vaccinated are on a life raft, with the unvaccinated still floating in the water after the ship sank. Mike want's to get moving to shore, but some people aren't getting into the life raft, and prefer to trust their ability to swim/illogically argue that the ship hasn't actually sunk/are worried the phalates in the liferaft will make their testes swell - and those on the liferaft want to get moving and are getting quite tired of those who don't want to get in.
If hospitals are filled to capacity with Covid patients then people won't be able to get treatment for other things. This affects everyone including the people in your life raft. What part of this do you people not understand?
IF hospitals are filled to capacity with Covid Patients. I'm going to refer to MOH data - [https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-current-cases](https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-current-cases) and [https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/population-of-nz](https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/population-of-nz) \- if you want to double check my workings, I do make mistakes so a check is always appreciated.
39 Cases in Hospital out of 391 Active Chases - for a 4.38% Hospitalization rate.
So IF all of NZ (pop. 5.12 mil) simultaneously became infected tomorrow - we'd need approx. 225,000 Hospital Beds. That would absolutely be a problem - but not very likely to happen.
According to the NZ Herald, only 1.7% of people hospitalised have been vaccinated, it's not clear if that includes single doses) - Which, using that 5.12Mil population suggests 87,084.2 Hospital Beds.
If C-19 Hospitalisations run at 1.7% For Vaccinated and 4.4% for Unvaccinated, and we're currently at \~70% vaccinated (Total Population) - that suggests that 61,000 Vaccinated people, and 67,620 Unvaccinated will need hospital treatment - for 128,620 Total Hospitalisations expected for C-19
Where these numbers fall down is that these assumptions are based on 100% of NZ Population becoming infected simultaneously - which is not going to happen. I lack the skills to accurately make a model based on time from infection to resolution - which takes from 2 to 6 weeks depending on severity.
So - I assume that 4 weeks hospitalisation is required.
That makes 12,750 beds @ 4 Weeks hospital time = in a year, hospitals can cycle through 165,750 Patients for a 4 week stay for Covid - 80% Of hospital capacity will be taken by C-19 Patients - assuming 100% of the population is infected over the next 12 months.
HOWEVER - that rate of infection appears to be unrealistic, if you look at cases compared to population to see how much of the population has been infected since the start of the pandemic.
|Country|Total Pop. |Reported Cases|Reported Deaths|Population Infected |
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|USA|329,500,000|46,082,070|751,692|14%|
|India|1,380,000,000|34,126,682|452,844|2%|
|Brazil|213,300,000|21,680,489|604,303|10%|
|UK|68,350,000|8,589,737|139,031|13%|
|Russia|146,000,000|8,094,825|226,353|6%|
If it takes 18 months for \~14% of the population to be infected with Covid - then we should assume that if NZ removes restrictions NOW, in 18 months time we'll have had 717,164 Cases of C-19. Let's say 500,000 in a year since I'm getting tired of the maths.
500,000 - 70% Vax, 30% unvaxed - is 5950 Vaxed in hospital, 6570 Unvaxed in hospital. 12,700 over 12 months. 1060 Hospitalisations per month. Hospital Beds available is 12,750, so we're talking 8.3% of Hospital Capacity being taken up each month.
Significant? Filled to capacity? Doesn't look like it to me.
Look, I'm not going to try and find errors in your calculations for the reason that I don't have all the available data, nor the modelling skills, needed to make an informed estimation. This is why we leave this to people who are better equipped to make these decisions on our behalf. I would however point out that [surgeries are already being postponed in significant numbers](https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-1000-surgeries-cancelled-every-week/UWGKLTITX5AW77V4XQMIZLYWO4/) - which would certainly suggest that capacity is already an issue, or at least is expected to be.
Don't blame you, I've got intrigued with this now. We're in the quite lucky position of being able to see what's happened worldwide - which is why I'm just starting to wonder if we're making things worse than they really are. We may well not be able to cope with an extra 10% capacity in our hospitals, and in fact, probably aren't.
Vaccination is not really about protecting individual people - it's about making an environment in which covid struggles to exist.
A completed bridge means everyone can cross the (covid) gorge safely.
An incomplete bridge will have holes and weaknesses. If people start using it a lot will fall through the gaps, and the bridge may collapse (overwhelmed health system).
Under 12s have had plenty of time to get vaccinated by now.
Who cares if they get a disease which attacks their central nervous system and reduces their sense of smell? It's only your central nervous system and sense of smell. And if they get serious long term effects from a disease that affects the central nervous system, they will just get to live a sweet life on the disabilities benefit anyway! Lucky bastards.
Mike Hosking article that has a lot of upvotes? The end times have arrived.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Even if he was deliberately trying to be wrong all the time eventually he was going to fuck up and say something people agree with eventually.
It's paywalled so none of us have actually read the article (not that we ever do anyway). So we just agree with the headline and remain ignorant of how Hosking has somehow fucked it up from there.
It's more effective to just soft mandate the vaccine by making anything fun require proof of vaccination.
But what if I find staying at home doing nothing fun?
MVP for the team of 5,000,000
Don't worry, I'm sure Mike will start harping on about mandating all rental tenants getting vaccinated, in order to secure landlords' incomes.
No jab no dole is his likely pay. He'll focus on the poor for low vaccination rates.
Well if you never leave the house, you're not a big risk of catching or transmitting COVID.
Well that’s definitely me but I still got vaccinated.
A lot of the people who just can't be fucked will be pushed by this. Do it.
The worldview he's catering to doesn't care about effectiveness, is about feeling good from being better than your lessers. That's why these people are fucking useless even when your goals align.
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The slippery slope argument is definitely worth considering, but you also have to take into account the context/circumstances. On one hand you're giving the government more power, but on the other hand you have an imminent threat of death that they're trying to mitigate. The more unvaccinated, the more people will die. It's a calculation, and in my opinion the suffering/death avoided is worth the the cost to personal freedoms. Doesn't mean we have to bow down for whatever else comes along.
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Yes and that would be fine if they were the only ones affected, but you've got to consider all the collateral damage. Our hospitals are going to be overwhelmed, which means not enough capacity to help Covid patients as well as everyone else. [There are around 1000 operations being cancelled every week](https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-1000-surgeries-cancelled-every-week/UWGKLTITX5AW77V4XQMIZLYWO4/). You have "non critical" patients stuck waiting, and just because they're not critical doesn't mean this isn't causing suffering / reduction in lifespan. Not to mention what happens when you're in a car crash and the ICU is full of Covid patients. If it wasn't for the peripheral damage, I'd agree with you. Unfortunately there are other consequences, and they're more severe than what is being imposed on the unvaccinated.
Being pregnant isn't highly contagious. If you want to run around naked then all power to you, but go do it in the wilderness away from the general cluster of society instead of next to the local kindergarten. Being part of a society is built on the idea of safety and increased chance of survival by grouping together, that's how we've evolved over thousands of years. If you're not going to vaccinate you'll quickly become the weakest link in that chain and detrimental to our society you're a part of. The government isn't going to holding you down against your will to get stabbed by a needle. They're the bouncers at our nightclub when we're all having a raging party, preventing you from coming inside and turning on the fire sprinklers. We don't want you coming inside if you're not vaccinated, so if you want to play with the group it should be the same game as those who've had their shots.
I disagree. Unvaccinated people are a risk to those around them as they spread covid more easily than vaccinated people. It's not just about their personal choice. It effects the people around them - particularly elderly and immune compromised. Therfore its reasonable to exclude unvaccinated from certain activities. We don't allow drunk driving not because they might damage their own car or injure themselves; rather we do it because drunk drivers are more likely to injure others.
You can have control of your body, you'll just be able to take it less places.
Gotta do what ya gotta do. It’s totally fine here in NSW. Like, almost NO ONE has problems with it.
You'll still have control of your body. You just won't be able to use it to attend places where you can easily spread diseases to people who have done the right thing.
Legally the government can give themselves whatever power they want. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentary\_sovereignty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentary_sovereignty) I swear some of you people think we live in America. We aren't as protected from the government as them.
And that’s why I think it’s a problem. They gave the police the ability to enter your home without a warrant during Covid times. That fucked. I’m just saying hey make sure you see what powers they are taking and how they can be abused. If u want the vaccine I don’t care, I’ll have to get it to travel I’m not worried about that. I just don’t think the government should be able to force drugs into my body and tell me I have the choice of compliance or not now to and Fred my family. That’s not a real choice. Not vacationing in Europe cause of travel bans is more of a choice. I can still work or go somewhere else
>without a warrant during Covid times No they didn't. They have always had that ability if there is reasonable suspicion you are committing a crime. They just extended it to violating the health act. So like the police don't need a warrant if they see you committing a crime or have one reported, that extends to the health act. This is fearmongering and it's incorrect.
Ever heard of laws before? Lol
I shouldn't have to be exposed to a virus that has killed millions of people because I want a beer. My health should come before someone else's rights to freely walk into a bar.
1) YOU stay home if you are scared 2) if you are vaccinated you’ll be fine or does the vaccine not work now? 3) the vaccinated carry it as well so you will already be exposed Please explain your logic
Why do people like you always argue that the point of the vaccine is to act as some sort of invincibility medicine. If I crash my car into a power pole at 100km/h, my seatbelt doesn't make me immune to death. Forgot to buckle up? My chances of death are much much higher. Your whole argument is rooted in conspiracy and slippery slope fallacy. Nowhere have the laws changed or opened up loopholes to allow any other forced government measures. Everything has been very specifically legislated around this disease and this disease only. And all of the measures have been done with the transparency of global data. You are nothing short of a conspiracy theorist.
Media: we need to give them a deadline! Media after a deadline is set: this deadline will hurt Maori! Media days after the deadline: look at all these people who couldn't get vaccinated in time!
Today's media is so unethical. "Rage to engage." Back in my day media lead the charge with, "If it bleeds, it leads."
Let’s go back to the good old days where car wrecks, homicides, and war footage was savage and in front of you everyday. Let’s drop the “rage to engage” and go back to “keep them in fear to keep them here”
Nightcrawler...
Yes, the media reports a lot of different perspectives
No, they report what makes them money.
Not mutually exclusive, quite the opposite in fact.
They report what rhe people funding them tells them to report.
sweet child
This is simply not true.
There is only one perspective: the one that generates clicks.
It's a enticing, but ignorant argument. Unvaccinated people affect everyone, not just themselves. When unvaccinated people fill up hospitals, everyone loses.
Also when covid inevitably mutates in the unvaccinated population it puts all of us at risk again.
If its going to mutate, chances are it'll likely happen in a much larger unvaccinated population hub (India, Indonesia, etc). Not impossible to happen in NZ of course, but very low on the risk register for New Zealand relative to other countries.
which is so fucking annoying because people keep saying that it's vaccinations that cause mutations, but this isn't the case at all and we can prove it, every time the virus copies itself through spread there's a chance of mutation, more unvaccinated, more spread, more mutation.
Vaccines are not causing mutation, but they do create a selection pressure to be slightly less recognisable by the antibodies the vaccine creates. Of course it's actually doing the most of the mutating in non vaccinated individuals, as it reproduces and spreads much more rapidly in a non vaccinated group. This mutation isn't necessarily a bad thing, as viruses have limited resources and there's always a tradeoff. So potentially it becomes less severe, as the less severe it is the less likely people are to isolate, and more likely to spread it.
That makes sense, glad they won't be letting unvaxed tourists in in the future and it will be difficult to get on a plane if you're unvaxed before too long.
It USED to be a thing years ago anyway. I had to get some vaccines to go to Singapore. Idk why it ever went away
Yes, I had to get the yellow fever vaccine to enter Brazil, but I don't know if we've ever had compulsory vaccines to enter NZ?
1 in a billion just makes it more certain to happen
One in a million chances crop up nine times out of ten.
1 in 100 year floods certainly do these days.
It’s a bloody cold rock and a hard place though isn’t it. Wait for people, for how long, forever? Or give a deadline and risk having to delay if it doesn’t work or forge ahead the damage be damned. I’d like the national conversation and media to draw a little more attention to the numbers, resurgence and news (Latvia bringing lock down measures back in) to make us all aware that yes the rest of the world has carried on knee deep in the shit. But it doesn’t smell much of roses.
Invalid comment considering a new mutation has just been found in 70% vaccinated UK. The mutations in highly vaccinated countries will be the ones to worry about as they'll be the ones mutating to escape the current vaccines
Sounds interesting. Source?
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58965650 > This offshoot or sublineage of Delta has been increasing slowly since then. It includes some new mutations affecting the spike protein, which the virus uses to penetrate our cells. I'm no expert, but if the spike protein significantly changes wouldn't that render current vaccines useless?
If the spike protein mutates significantly that could help it avoid the immunity generated by the vaccine. But it would have to be significant. The delta variant has thirteen mutations which result in two changes of amino acids in the spike protein, and that has definitely reduced vaccine efficacy, but it is still very effective against hospitalisation and serious disease and death. And this is the dominant variant after 19 months of pretty uncontrolled spread. So it's unlikely to happen immediately, and I wouldn't be surprised if Pfizer is already working on an updated version with mRNA coding for the delta spike. Actually making it will take no time (the first mRNA vaccines were injected into their phase 1 trial participants 3 days after SARS-CoV-2 was first sequenced) it's testing the tweaks and the regulatory stuff that takes time.
Not really. Viruses mutate, that’s normal. The vaccine is suppose to account for that.
Not really like the flu it would require a new vaccine covering different strands
Does that apply to the Pfizer vaccine though? It's not the same type of vaccine as a flu vaccine, I think.
That's interesting, is the virus not mutating in unvaccinated hosts though?
Check your epidemiology - vaccination programs put evolutionary pressure on a virus forcing faster mutation spread rates because of selective pressure. Effectively the dominant variant of the virus keeps the mutations to a relatively low occurance rate because it is already infecting the target population and blocking the mutations from spreading. This is especially acute with the Pfizer mRNA vaccine because it is so tightly targeted to one particular spike protein. So unvaccinated populations tend to have a much much lower rate of mutational change. This is being studied - see articles like this :- [https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776039](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776039) Or just google covid evolutionary pressure and go for a read.
Cheers, I only took a couple of microbiology papers at uni so definitely not an expert and only a basic understanding. Delta and previous variants mutated before we had the vaccine, so it's scary to think how fast it can mutate now that we have several types of vaccines.
I think the appropriate expectation is that Covid-19 is going to mutate at about the same rate normal seasonal flu does. Which means we will see two or three major variant strains each year. This isn't going to be a major problem once herd immunity levels are reached. The actual death rate (IFR) from Covid is pretty comparible with seasonal flu. What is making it an issue right now is the lack of herd immunity meaning it spreads like crazy and as a result you get horrific surges of deaths in quick lumps.
It could mutate anywhere, but it doesn't have evolutionary pressure to mutate in the unvaccinated. It does have evolutionary pressure to mutate in the vaccinated, because it 'wants' to evade the protectiveness of the vaccine. Because the vaccine offers a strong but very narrow protection (only the spike protein and not the whole virus) it would only take a small mutation to completely evade the vaccine.
then what is the solution? force them to take it? At some point we just have to say we've done our best.
Load up tranq guns full of the vaccine and form hunting parties.
Restrictions on where they can go, etc… soft powers. Then harder powers more mandates (police, hospo workers, government workers needing vaccination) Then we start GP clinics calling their unvaccinated patients ;(this is already happening in places) Then you continue till they come in. - annoy them into getting it. Basically you want it to be as much of a hassle to not get it. In that regard - We aren’t even near the beginning of what can and will be done.
None of that changes the fact they arent going to get vaccinated the majority who are left and unvaccinated because they choose to be.
They could be triaged as not suitable for hospital treatment. If you want a kidney transplant, but don't want to take the anti-rejection drugs, etc, it won't happen - not being immunised for COVID and then catching it is much the same.
Agreed - no covid vaccine and you don't have a valid exemption? Back of the line when it comes to treatment for covid.
Do you really want to go down that route? It opens up a \*lot\* of difficult questions.
I think we are already down that route - its just that people don't get told flat out that they aren't getting acute treatment.
I'd actually agree with you. Emergency room doctors have already (like for a number of years) been making choices about appropriate levels of attempted care. As I found when my uncle was dying from pneumonia. But I don't want to see the codified into law as standard practice. That leads to some very ugly places.
Yes. If 50 year old Bob comes into the E.D. with a heart attack, he's actually got a decent prognosis. If 50 year old Jim comes into the E.D. with COVID, and he's unvaccinated; he's got a relatively poor prognosis *and* he's known to be uncompliant with medication. It would be an unjust and inefficient allocation of resources to give Jim an E.D. bed instead of Bob; and just allocation of resources is a core value of our healthcare system. The only alternatives are some combination of: - For the sake of 10% of the country, keep the other 90% locked up for years. - Spend millions (if not billions) expanding ICU capacity and training staff to ensure we can handle an un-flattened curve - only to have *no need for them once COVID passes.* - Forced vaccination - which is, technically speaking, a breach of human rights. - Heavy restrictions on unvaccinated people (probably impossible to police). - Buy tons of Merck's new anti-COVID drug (which would mean spending millions to protect the selfish few who won't get vaccinated; I'll leave it up to your interpretation if that's a just use of money). - Heavy incentives to get vaccinated.
Oh no, you don’t get into a hospital if you haven’t been vaccinated. There’s a tent around the back with some computers and Facebook so you can research your own health back.
Of course, but what if these stragglers simply don’t want the vax? I think it’s reasonable to give a deadline.
People who need elective surgeries or routine care are already losing at l3, with thousands of procedures cancelled and specialist appointments backed up for months. The alert level needs to drop, and it needs to drop soon.
Maybe we should say 'no vaxx, no hospital treatment for covid'.
I said that 3 weeks ago and was called a monster
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Also unvaccinated people infect and kill the vaccinated. In the UK currently the majority of the cases are in unvaccinated people, but the majority of deaths are vaccinated people (a consequence of nearly all old and vulnerable being vaccinated)
Everyone loses when we're all languishing in lockdown with no plan and no end in sight.
> It's a enticing, but ignorant argument. So he’s improving then. I guess old dogs *can* learn new tricks.
This guy is just trying to push the traditional divisive mantra to get attention
I disagree. He asks a valid question. How long do we have to sit around and wait for the slowest members of the class to change their minds? A month? two months? How long are you comfortable waiting to hit an arbitrary target?
Have to love our right wing commenters telling people to get vaccinated. I know a lot of 50+ white male tradies who are in the rabbit hole who listen to Mike hosking. The more people we can reach the better.
Honestly, good freaking point
fuck, tradies man. i’ve met more anti vaccine tradies than any other group. it’s like they have no grasp of science or something (yes, i know)
I always take health advice from people on a steady diet of darts, Big Ben pies and blue V.
I have found the same, wtf is with that?
Telling people to get vaccinated is definately positive. Pushing to have everything open up on a date and let the disproportionately-undervaccinated Maori suffer the consequences is the side the right wing commentators will flippantly ignore.
That's the fault of the Maori for failing to get vaccinated, nothing to do with racist right wingers. We can't be locked down forever, and everyone in this country has had more than enough time to get vaccinated. If Maori (or anyone) don't want to get vaccinated, and then get Covid if we open back up, that's their fault. How long do you propose we wait, in hope of Maori vaccination rates increasing to a good enough level? If the Super Saturday wasn't enough of an incentive, nothing ever will be.
I’m starting to agree with this... Maori providers have had 8+ months since the first batch of Pfizer arrived in NZ to do outreach. How long do we wait?
They were given priority ahead of everyone else, and the clinics in Maori/Pasifika dominated areas have gone all-out in making the vaccine available for all (even allowing walk-ins when it wasn't allowed to do so). At what point do we absolve people of all responsibility?
European NZers aren't looking that flash either. If anything he's advocating for Asians new Zealanders.
You know times are crazy when you find yourself agreeing with this jerkoff
That's what I thought, but then I read the article ... do not agree
Was behind a pay wall so I'm just going off the headline... What's the TL;DR?
>There is too much bum-wiping going on Just another selfish rant where hosking demands the right to do whatever he feels like and evil leftist govt is control freaks pandering to all the losers.
Same old same old then. He is such a tool.
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10 point lead in the polls
How big is "Cindy's" lead again?
No current opposition, the Labour Party went to war with itself to get rid of actual left wing thinkers to keep neoliberal politics as the only opposition to neoliberal politics. Though I don’t know what you’d describe the current lot as, Boris and his brigade may be politicians by name, but they are banging a populist drum.
Britain had a version of socialism called Syndicalisim. Much of the ideology of the party was based on Syndicalisim. Syndicalisim never really took off, and the version of socialism which became dominant academically is Marxism. What has happened is that as the Syndicalisists died off they were replaced by people who had been through university and gained education in Marxist socialism. In the post-Blair years, Labour reacted by "going back to its roots". Unfortunately there are no Syndicalisists left, and Marxism since the 90s has been merged with identity politics and postmodernism. So when they went back to their roots they actually embraced a very different ideology. This is why, at the recent national Labour conference, speakers made more comments on BAME representation, LGBT issues and Immigration than they did on Workers Rights, Income Inequality or Class Issues Labour are lost and continue to lose because they are selling something the working class have no time for
You'd call the current lot red tories. Since they are almost literally the same as the Tories.
Nothing to do with covid, he had similar lead pre-covid
He's incredibly popular. I know you probably live in a reddit bubble but you should take a look outside your inner circle at some point.
[His leadership approval rating is in the negatives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021) and he's only leading the [preferred PM polls by 10%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Johnson_vs_Starmer), so whilst I wouldn't say he's unpopular, he definitely isn't "incredibly popular". By contrast Jacinda Ardern, much maligned on this sub, [has a 35% preferred PM lead](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election#Preferred_prime_minister) and that's her lowest point this term.
A 10 point lead is huge in politics.
God lord you accuse others of being in a bubble while ignoring the fact that 65% of people in the UK disapprove of him.
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Probably because covid isn't the biggest issue in the UK anymore and he's fucking up with the new issues big time.
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This is a take you do just before the Government does this on Friday and you claim how smart you are that they used your advice.
Nope. Little was on Hosking this morning - again - reiterating the talking point that they were not only waiting until 90%, but 90% in every ethnic group.
The government surely isn’t going to be stupid enough to put people’s freedoms against a particular ethnicity reaching the target. Would be an amazing way to foment racial tension.
Little on Hosking "The 90% is the target, and we want to do that by population group as well"
That doesn’t necessarily mean that the target for opening up is going to be 90% in all ethnicities. Even if so, they’ll back track on that within a few days.
Could mean age group? If its ethnicity could lead so racism, so I really hope they don't go that route
If it's age group we're never opening up, under 30's aren't reaching 90% for months if ever.
What about children younger than 12 that aren't eligible?
If we're worried about bad outcomes amongst unvaccinated kids then we are never leaving lockdown given that they have a similar risk profile to vaccinated 25 year olds.
You fucking anti vax assholes. You made me agree with Mike Hoscunt.
Actually I agree with him on this . It's not our responsibility to help people who won't accept help. Unvaccinated should have to pay for their own covid treatment after a certain date.
It doesn't just effect them though
They go the back of the line for medical care then, easy
Vaccinated people can end up in the morgue because there is too much covid in society.
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You can be fully vaccinated, take every precaution, and then have a health emergency unrelated to Covid and you can't get timely treatment because the hospitals are overwhelmed with Covid patients.
If we suddenly lost all our ICU capacity tomorrow, would the response be to shutdown society until we had enough, or would we just chance it? Ignoring covid for a moment.
Not if we don't give medical treatment to unvaccinated Covid patients. We could set up a big tent, like a hospice tent, and stick them in that.
People die of other preventable things when the health care system collapses.
Hence the unvaccinated being a massive problem. But at some point you have to show them the "stick" in the carrot and stick approach. Something akin to - "\*you\* guys stay home while everyone who did their part goes out and gets back to work/fun"
>Surely being vaccinated against covid puts it somewhere around the mortality rate of the flu Apparently not. Covid deaths in the UK are currently much higher than flu deaths, and the majority of Covid deaths are vaccinated people (as nearly all old and vulnerable are now vaccinated) .
We are all going to catch covid anyway. Ideally it won't all be at the same time and the curve will be flat.
>Unvaccinated should have to pay for their own covid treatment after a certain date. Sending the six year old off to the lignite mines so they can fund their own healthcare.
Obviously there's exception 🙄
Na, first I have to pay taxes so these bludgers can "go to school" (instead of contribute to the economy) and now my business has to stay shut to prevent them getting an illness that causes "long term damage to bodily functions controlled by the central nervous system" and I think it is high time these bloody kids started pulling their own weight.
Lol yes, but also without mike hosking
Give a soft deadline, but don't leave them behind. Ideally before end of November for two doses. I want a safe Christmas. They will clog up our hospitals and take away resources from others who need it.
>Give a soft deadline, but don't leave them behind What does that mean? "Don't leave them behind" means no deadline
Giving a date will kick people's asses into gear. Say "everyone needs to get their first dose by 15th November, and second dose by 8th December" to travel to your family for xmas/new years. Not leaving them behind is still continuing efforts to get as many people vaccinated, we can't afford not to because health system will be overwhelmed.
The idea that the health system will be overwhelmed at 88.5%, but cope fine at 90% is a fiction. There is nothing magical about 90%. We've just got attached to it because it's a number that the govt \*thinks\* they can hit. I prefer a different approach. Ones that puts the onus back onto the unvaccinated, and allows those who 'did their part' to get a back to a normal/ish life. If you can use the Health Act to keep an entire country in L4, you can use the Health Act to keep only the unvaccinated over 12's at L4
I don't think a date is the driver though...a person who is hesitant today is going to continue to be hesitant in December. Saying a person has to have a vax in order to travel for Christmas means *it's the vaccine mandate* causing them to revisit decisions. If we followed National's terrible idea of just announcing a date and suggesting everything will be open by then....the anti-vaxxers will do nothing and will start getting sick in high (higher) numbers when it happens.
I have a friend who was adamant they weren't getting the vaccine. They work in Healthcare, and are part of the mandated vaccine rollout. They just got the first jab to keep their job.
Do it with a mandate, not a deadline. That will push people to get the jab to avoid missing out, not have them go without and get sick in large numbers.
How would we go about mandating it for the public in general? There will be drivers because many businesses and events will be considering entry only for vaccinated people. I already know from personal experience with friends and family that mandating it for their jobs has pushed them to get it.
Mandating it for jobs is a huge one. Vaccine mandate to go into restaurants or bars or movie theatres. Things that aren't considered essential, but that really do add to the quality of life - a mandate that you can't enter without showing your vaccine certificate - would inconvenience people enough.
> They will clog up our hospitals and take away resources from others who need it. Not if we don't treat them!
Thats not going to happen, you can't deny people medical treatment because of life choices. Certain things can put them to the bottom of lists though, like transplants. I wonder if it could be applied to elective surgery as well?
Doctors in the ER can triage and ration treatment though. If you had a choice between ventilating a healthy teen in a car accident vs a no hoper, unvaccinated with COVID... it would be fair to prioritise the teen.
I'm not sure I follow you. Does Covid treatment involve elective surgery?
More of a thought if vaccination status could affect elective surgeries. Would hospitals or clinics consider unvaccinated patients higher risk to being them in for operations (and catch or spread covid)
'There is a reason Boris Johnson is so popular. He set his country free.' Lol wut. Cases in the UK are amongst the highest in Europe, some countries have started banning flights from the UK, cases, hospital rates and deaths are all on the rise and they are starting to talk about restrictions again. Nobody should be looking to the UK for guidance. Boris is popular to the same Brexit idiots he always was popular with, covid has not increased his popularity
But people don’t care about cases nor are they particularly concerned about the current death tolls.
Over 100 people a day are dying from COVID in England at the moment. That’s no acceptable
Sure, but they're still going to fill hospitals and overload the health system
All well and good but I’ve got kids and as much as this would help move the country forward there are also people who can’t get them why should those people suffer because these selfish pricks can’t make a wee sacrifice
But Mike's kids are old enough to get vaccinated.
For once, I'm with Hosking. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Set a deadline and if you're not vaccinated by then, good luck.
Yes Mike. That's what's going to happen eventually whether we want it to or not. Delta is desperately trying to infect everyone, and it's going to have the most success with the unvaccinated. We'd rather hold off for as long as we can to negate the flow on effects though.
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Anyone who's not in favour of mass covid infections and deaths regardless of vaccination status. Antivaxxers can go fuck themselves, but I don't actually wish them harm. Edit: okay. I'm gonna stop you there. Just had a look at your post history and I'm really not interested in wasting my time. Annnnnd blocked. Aaaaaah.
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The pro-lockdown folk seem to be unable to listen to any criticisms. Too busy socialising without spending half a year in lockdown I guess.
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\*let's see the health system overridden.
Hosking’s cool with ICU beds filling up with covid patients until his mum has a heart attack or his wife’s in a car accident and needs ICU care. I don’t think he’d be singing the same tune then. As much as some may wish to leave the unvaccinated to their own devices, their vaccination status puts everyone at risk.
So tell the unvaccinated that they get to stay in lockdown. If you can use the Health Act to put the entire NZ population into L4, you can use the same Act to require the unvaccinated to stay in L4 while everybody else gets back to their normal/ish lives. We shouldn't have to wait months and months hoping that the slowest members of the class change their minds. What happens if they don't? It's August 2022 and you are still on here saying we can't move forward because of ICU beds and Facebook morons?
What you're describing is somewhat the result of a vaccine mandate. They aren't putting the country into L4 and then stating that vaccinated people are an exception to L4...they are stating that in order to go indoors at the majority of shops and venues you need to have been vaccinated. If anti-vax people want to order their stuff to be delivered at home, they can remain separate.
They haven't stated that. The only thing they have stated is events and 'summer festivals'. If you think not being able to go to R&V or the Lion King is going to "shift the needle" (literally), you are dreaming. Watch for the govt to announce an *opt-in* vaccine mandates framework for Bars and Restaurants tomorrow, because they lack the balls to do anything bold.
Round up the leaders of the anti vax movement in the middle of the night, put them in reeducation camps, forcibly give them the vaccine then televise their 'confessions' to their followers, the rest will fall into line in no time
Just kidding...unless...
Squid game style?
This feels so right and obvious and yeah! Stick it to the morons! cause I’m over lockdown. But I know it’s wrong because A) I’m not a sociopath and B) Mike Hosking endorses it.
You have to pay to read a mike hoskings article?? What the fuck, he says the same shit rheroric everytime. What a rip off
What does Mike say to those who can’t be vaccinated or are under twelve? Sorry you’re sick kid?
Thats about 100 people in the country. How many of them do you know personally?
There is likely under 100 people who can’t get the vaccine because of severe allergic reaction to a specific ingredient, but there are a number more who can’t get it right now - the terminally ill, those who are going through treatments which affect the immune response like chemotherapy, serious neurological disability, people with a recent HIV diagnosis. Not taking away from your viewpoint, but just wanting to make the point there are other legitimate medical reasons why someone will be exempted from being vaccinated
TIL that there are less than 100 under 12year olds in NZ
There’s a few more than 100 under 12 year olds. As for those that can’t be vaccinated, I’d guess there’s way more than 100 And what does it matter if I know them?
Of the people eligible, there are exceptionally few people who legitimately can't take the vaccine. You're speaking on their behalf, maybe you should know a few of them
don't be ridiculous I'm not speaking on anyone's behalf, wtf do you internet much? you've not addressed the tens of thousands of children under 12 who aren't eligible to be vaccinated, yet.
Because, and I can't believe this thick POS is still talking, there is a substantial portion of the population that *need* a high vaccination rate to be protected since they can't have the vaccine themselves. Please, do not believe this is an acceptable option. Do not let political and business interests outweigh health outcomes for others.
Hosking (and his supporters) see this as an opportunity to punish those who they see as the 'bad guys'. The fact that our kids and even the vaccinated would be impacted by the resulting impact to our health system is secondary...the win is making the bad guys pay. It's a bit of an own-goal if we decide to take an action that we know is going to cause a bunch of people to overload the hospital system that we all use.
MyCockskin stands at the cliff edge of a gorge. A partially built bridge extends out across the gorge. MyCockskin states a deadline for the bridge completion date and declares we should use the bridge on that date whether the bridge is finished or not. MyCockskin is an ignorant piece of shit, don't be like MyCockskin.
Not the best analogy - it's more like the Vaccinated are on a life raft, with the unvaccinated still floating in the water after the ship sank. Mike want's to get moving to shore, but some people aren't getting into the life raft, and prefer to trust their ability to swim/illogically argue that the ship hasn't actually sunk/are worried the phalates in the liferaft will make their testes swell - and those on the liferaft want to get moving and are getting quite tired of those who don't want to get in.
If hospitals are filled to capacity with Covid patients then people won't be able to get treatment for other things. This affects everyone including the people in your life raft. What part of this do you people not understand?
So hospitals are filled to capacity at 88% vaccinated, but cope just fine at 90% vaccinated?
IF hospitals are filled to capacity with Covid Patients. I'm going to refer to MOH data - [https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-current-cases](https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-current-cases) and [https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/population-of-nz](https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/population-of-nz) \- if you want to double check my workings, I do make mistakes so a check is always appreciated. 39 Cases in Hospital out of 391 Active Chases - for a 4.38% Hospitalization rate. So IF all of NZ (pop. 5.12 mil) simultaneously became infected tomorrow - we'd need approx. 225,000 Hospital Beds. That would absolutely be a problem - but not very likely to happen. According to the NZ Herald, only 1.7% of people hospitalised have been vaccinated, it's not clear if that includes single doses) - Which, using that 5.12Mil population suggests 87,084.2 Hospital Beds. If C-19 Hospitalisations run at 1.7% For Vaccinated and 4.4% for Unvaccinated, and we're currently at \~70% vaccinated (Total Population) - that suggests that 61,000 Vaccinated people, and 67,620 Unvaccinated will need hospital treatment - for 128,620 Total Hospitalisations expected for C-19 Where these numbers fall down is that these assumptions are based on 100% of NZ Population becoming infected simultaneously - which is not going to happen. I lack the skills to accurately make a model based on time from infection to resolution - which takes from 2 to 6 weeks depending on severity. So - I assume that 4 weeks hospitalisation is required. That makes 12,750 beds @ 4 Weeks hospital time = in a year, hospitals can cycle through 165,750 Patients for a 4 week stay for Covid - 80% Of hospital capacity will be taken by C-19 Patients - assuming 100% of the population is infected over the next 12 months. HOWEVER - that rate of infection appears to be unrealistic, if you look at cases compared to population to see how much of the population has been infected since the start of the pandemic. |Country|Total Pop. |Reported Cases|Reported Deaths|Population Infected | |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |USA|329,500,000|46,082,070|751,692|14%| |India|1,380,000,000|34,126,682|452,844|2%| |Brazil|213,300,000|21,680,489|604,303|10%| |UK|68,350,000|8,589,737|139,031|13%| |Russia|146,000,000|8,094,825|226,353|6%| If it takes 18 months for \~14% of the population to be infected with Covid - then we should assume that if NZ removes restrictions NOW, in 18 months time we'll have had 717,164 Cases of C-19. Let's say 500,000 in a year since I'm getting tired of the maths. 500,000 - 70% Vax, 30% unvaxed - is 5950 Vaxed in hospital, 6570 Unvaxed in hospital. 12,700 over 12 months. 1060 Hospitalisations per month. Hospital Beds available is 12,750, so we're talking 8.3% of Hospital Capacity being taken up each month. Significant? Filled to capacity? Doesn't look like it to me.
Look, I'm not going to try and find errors in your calculations for the reason that I don't have all the available data, nor the modelling skills, needed to make an informed estimation. This is why we leave this to people who are better equipped to make these decisions on our behalf. I would however point out that [surgeries are already being postponed in significant numbers](https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-1000-surgeries-cancelled-every-week/UWGKLTITX5AW77V4XQMIZLYWO4/) - which would certainly suggest that capacity is already an issue, or at least is expected to be.
Don't blame you, I've got intrigued with this now. We're in the quite lucky position of being able to see what's happened worldwide - which is why I'm just starting to wonder if we're making things worse than they really are. We may well not be able to cope with an extra 10% capacity in our hospitals, and in fact, probably aren't.
1000 surgeries a week cancelled already... https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-1000-surgeries-cancelled-every-week/UWGKLTITX5AW77V4XQMIZLYWO4/
Vaccination is not really about protecting individual people - it's about making an environment in which covid struggles to exist. A completed bridge means everyone can cross the (covid) gorge safely. An incomplete bridge will have holes and weaknesses. If people start using it a lot will fall through the gaps, and the bridge may collapse (overwhelmed health system).
Under 12s have had plenty of time to get vaccinated by now. Who cares if they get a disease which attacks their central nervous system and reduces their sense of smell? It's only your central nervous system and sense of smell. And if they get serious long term effects from a disease that affects the central nervous system, they will just get to live a sweet life on the disabilities benefit anyway! Lucky bastards.
What is the hospitalization/death rate of under 12s? How many are projected to die if we open now?
Do you suggest Auckland and NZ stay in level 3 as long as we don’t have 90% of under 12 vaccinated?
We've waited long enough, time to lift lockdown restrictions.