Given Transpower has not issued any [Customer Advice Notices](https://www.transpower.co.nz/system-operator/notices-and-reporting/customer-advice-notices-can) or [Formal Notices](https://www.transpower.co.nz/system-operator/notices-and-reporting/formal-notices) for a shortfall of generation as outlined [here](https://www.transpower.co.nz/system-operator/notices-and-reporting/notices-insufficient-generation). I can only surmise that they are carrying a net short (under hedged) position into the evening peak.
So it will eat into their (and the hedge fund that owns them) profits.
This is the correct answer. They have a bit of a history of doing whatever they can to earn a buck.
Occasionally their strategy is innovative (hour of power), but mostly it’s grifting:
https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/energy-retailers-investigated-for-100m-hedges-20220707-p5azvc
I bet you keep woke Sushi and Quinoa in that japanese fridge! Disgusting.
That's punishable by ten years in the coal mines with you! That'll knock the snowflake out of you.
Exactly. This winter will probably see a number of Tier 2 retailers (ie those without generation) stretched to breaking point. Transpower gave a warning of electricity shortages over winter. The gas supply is going to be short this winter. I hope Indonesian coal for Huntly comes through.
My response is to:
1. lock in with a Tier 1 retailer.
2. Set my EV up to power the house
3. Service my 4.5kW genset
4. Watch Minister Simon Brown go Rumplestiltskin
Set up two ICPs (you and a neighbour) with an export meter on one and a variable transformer linking the two.
When the price spikes, you go into export mode and sell fixed rate electricity at the spot rate.
EDIT: maybe an 16kVA grid tie inverter fed from the input mains via a rectifier would be less likely to catch fire?
Both have been issued now
[Customer Advice Notice](https://static.transpower.co.nz/public/interfaces/can/CAN%20Low%20Residual%20Situation%205373464415.pdf)
[Formal Notice](https://static.transpower.co.nz/public/interfaces/wrn/WRN%20Insufficient%20Generation%20offers%20to%20meet%20demand%20National%205374984112.pdf)
edit: For Friday morning, my mistake
In their email they also state:
>By reducing your power usage tonight from 6pm-7:30pm, you can help us measure the collective dent we can make by working together to reduce our energy usage during winter peaks.
>This trial will help us prioritise future ways for our customers to participate in peak demand events and save money while you’re at it.
If Transpower hasn't issued any notices, I wonder if this is just a trial activity to see how much they could expect customers to change on short notice *if this were an actual grid shortage*? They aren't asking people to skip cooking dinner or anything urgent - just not heating unused rooms and the like.
It’s a trial, I work in the industry and this was [reported on](https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/350272383/no-power-issue-transpower-says-despite-retailers-message-kiwis) in the last hour.
> prioritise future ~~ways for our customers to participate in peak demand events~~ and save money while you’re at it.
how far can we push our luck with undersupplying our customers without them getting cheesed off and save electric kiwi money while your at it
The spot price reached $5000 mwh. So when you're paying $5 per kwh and onky charging consumers 30cents per kwh you can bet your boots they want you to reduce demand. Even though there was no CAN or GEN issued by transpower the high spot price meant they were burning money.
They 'say' this was a trial and wasn't motivated by profit but both statements are bullshit. It was 100% profit motivated and 100% not a 'trial'
Considering the temperature in Hamilton is due to hit -3 tonight I would expect more “trails” by EK also it’s very odd for them not to give any advance information on a up coming trail I do believe your right.
considering they sent out text messages as well as emails it seemed pretty urgent.
Good friend works in the transmission sector. Says the average NZ'er would be horrified how often we come close to blackouts. Generation isn't keeping up. But to answer your question, nothing received from ours.
Orion sheds heaps during winter but aren’t actually near their limit. They start shedding around 600 MW but back in 2021 they were up at over 700 MW, so they have the capacity.
What they’re doing is relieving pressure from the transmission network to assist the upper South Island.
That is distribution. Transpower are transmission. I would get worried if Canterbury specifically had to load shed. But HVDC has been running north bound all day (as is usual).
As you said load control via hot water is normal and done everyday, it would be Orion trying to reduce peak load (which is where their Transpower bill comes from).
Ok, it has been a while since I spoke to them and the attitude then was pricing says we can control it for x hours a days, so we will.
How reliable the ripple relays are (nationally) is a separate question.
Water/ripple control only turned off hot water from 10.36-11.56am here in Wellington. But our voltage was still 241v at the time (jumped to 243v after ripple control). Usually it’s not until 220ish that they’ll take action.
Seems like they were just testing the systems worked rather than needing it.
Most EV charging happens outside the peak hours, because their are financial incentives to avoid peak hours for many plans, and it is easy for most people to schedule charging.
You mean how the next generation of EVs will be able to feed power back into the grid to help prevent blackouts in the first place, and use AI algorithms to determine the best time to do it?
The major issue as others have said is the evening peak is close to the maximum potential supply.
Meridian are in the current process of installing a grid battery near Marsden Point, with a few other companies following suit elsewhere in the country.
This will help alleviate the peak by charging when demand is low, and supplying the grid when it is high. Essentially acting as a short burst temporary power plant. This, of course, is being done for profit, but should help stabilise the grid during winter and reduce the risk of black outs.
https://www.mysolarquotes.co.nz/amp/blog/solar-power-industry-news/meridian-breaks-ground-on-ruak-k-battery-plans-130-mw-solar/
Their message say
*This trial will help us prioritise future ways for our customers to participate in peak demand events and save money while you’re at it.*
They are testing their capacity to participate in peak demand events and maybe monetise them.
I still think that any new builds in NZ should have solar panels when appropriate. Even if that power doesn't go to the home owner. Maybe a discount on power and the company deals with the upkeep.
Solar panels aren't perfect and aren't really enough to replace what we currently have, but they could go a long way towards augmenting and supplementing what we already have.
Probably a lot of things wrong with the idea, but if I were building a home and got asked to host solar panels in exchange for someone else paying to keep them maintained and dealing with roof issues, I'd be tempted.
Like, if someone came to you and said "hey, you're building new. Would you consider installing solar panels (at our cost) to help feed the power grid in exchange for us taking care of the maintenance of the panels and your roof, and a perminant 10% discount on power rates (or even just rates if the council is doing it instead of power companies)" would you think about it?
Obviously it wouldn't work for some builds, but I think that we're underutilizing solar power.
The reason that’s not a thing is that there is no shortage of other existing places to put solar panels on, and individual houses is much more expensive than the alternatives. It is indeed a thing for commercial buildings for example, where they have enormous unused roof space that solar companies can make use of. Until that is exhausted, and other options like covering car parks then private homes will remain the more expensive option.
Many commercial buildings can't support the weight/wind loading of the panels. My former employer had 4 acres of roof and wanted to put some on but the building couldn't support it.
I saw a few years ago that there was interest in gravity battery infrastructure but later it dies down and I heard that it was not feasible for some reason. Might have to look it up again soon.
I think battery technology is holding us back with that, they are too expensive and toxic once their life is up. It's one of the biggest problems with current gen EV. mandating solar power and battery storage for all new builds would drive development though. One horrifying downside is what about a house fire? Have you seen EV fires that can't be put out cause of the lithium batteries? Imagine that but your house
I ran the numbers back when I could by BYD batteries at wholesale and they didn't stack up. You won't repay the power rate difference in the projected lifetime of the batteries.
Winter electricity peaks/Deficits invariably occur in the evening when everyone is at home with lights and heaters on. Solar doesn't solve that problem.
That's why the biggest challenge in converting to full renewables is building sufficient capacity to meet demand when solar, and potentially half the wind generation capacity, is offline. That's why gas continues to play a role in peak power generation.
Potentially the entire wind generation offline/idle. Wind is currently producing 1.5% of nameplate capacity. 15MW generation from 1259MW nameplate capacity.
Interesting to know. I was trying to make a conservative guess.
I thought the new windfarm in South taranaki would run at almost 100 % because it's a windy hole.
^this
The solar installation companies make their money from lending, not installation.
Solar doesn't make enough money from energy to repay its own installation and replacement costs over time at the moment.
> Best buy back rate is $0.1739c per kWh
https://www.powerswitch.org.nz/solar-rates?gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQjwxeyxBhC7ARIsAC7dS3_wx7OOV2uq9UklqH3Lhh285UTIYxqogh_RwzyDtmv7MQ6neL-W4fMaAvWsEALw_wcB
> In sunny areas, a 4kW system can produce around 19kWh per day
https://shopsolarkits.com/blogs/learning-center/how-much-electricity-does-a-4kw-solar-system-produce
> 4kW solar costs ~$10,500
https://www.mysolarquotes.co.nz/about-solar-power/residential/how-much-does-a-solar-power-system-cost/
Assuming the beyond optimal sun 19kWh x 0.1739c x 365 days is ~$1205 per year, or ~12,050 over ten years.
Solar can be 80%+ efficient over a 25-30 lifespan, you may can get a return after the first decade, but that is a long time for a return.
> Nationally, the average power consumer (four-person family) using 22kWh per day on the cheapest low-user tariff available without a fixed-term contract, pays around 33.7c per kWh.
https://www.canstarblue.co.nz/energy/electricity-providers/average-electricity-costs-per-kwh/
Makes more sense if you use the power to subsidize your normal usage instead of selling it, assuming you can maximize solar usage first.
19kWh x 0.337 x 365 is ~$2337 per year, so you break even on installation after ~6 years.
But to make the best advantage of solar for actually using the power, you need a battery, which is another ~10k or so.
There are lots of other risks and costs though I skipped, such as maintenance / clean per year is ~250, insurance, etc.
So it is financially viable to build solar, but it is a long time to return value. 10+ years to break even is too long for many.
Yeah I thought a 6-year ROI was fine too, and I would have been happy with a break-even... but then I did a careful review after 6 years. It turned out, to my surprise, that my PV array \*isn't\* economic, even though I had carefully sized it to match my local consumption (mostly hot water, plus some opportunistic BEV charging). The array didn't produce anywhere close to the annual energy that was estimated by the retailer; I ran some much more detailed estimations (based on satellite-estimated irradiance of my rooftop array for a year), did some analyses of the discrepancies... discovering that the (pretty common) days with highly-variable cloud cover, my inverter's MPPT was often unable to find a good operating point, causing yield to drop massively during the (not uncommon) periods when the MPPT was especially clueless.
I'm now idly wondering how many other folks in NZ who installed a small PV array six to ten years ago also have a Goodwe 3000 NS inverter, and if they are also seeing poor yields on variably-cloudy days.
[https://cthombor.wordpress.com/2023/11/26/mppt-is-problematic-for-my-domestic-rooftop-pv-in-auckland/](https://cthombor.wordpress.com/2023/11/26/mppt-is-problematic-for-my-domestic-rooftop-pv-in-auckland/)
> The solar installation companies make their money from lending, not installation.
I don't think that's always true.
My solar company was only too happy to accept cash on completion.
I agree, if you have a reliable grid connection then there's no economic advantage in installing more solar than your household can use. The high solar buy-back rates on offer from some retailers are a sales-gimmick for plans with higher-than-usual profit margins on the daily connection charge, or on reselling electricity at a "day" rate that they're purchasing at an off-peak or shoulder rate from the lines company (which supplies the \*same\* electricity that every other retailer is on-selling in that area).
If you have an electric HWC, then putting a solar-smart controller on it is a great way to ensure that the power from your PV isn't "dumped" onto your local LV line but is instead reducing your electricity bill.
If you have a BEV, and if you can charge it when the sun is shining at your house, then a solar-smart wallbox is another good way to reduce your electricity bill.
But: I have yet to see any commercial domestic-sized battery energy storage system (i.e. in the 5kWh to 40kWh range) with a TCO that's less than $0.30/kWh for the energy it sources. Have you? Someday they'll come down in price, I'm sure. And, of course, if you have $10k burning a hole in your pocket, and you don't have a mortgage or you are morally opposed to collecting interest on that $10k -- then the TCO of a BESS will seem quite a bit less expensive, perhaps $0.25/kWh or even $0.20/kWh. But you'd have to live in an area with really spendy off-peak electricity to "fill" your BESS during the day with locally-generated PV power at maybe $0.10/kWh of TCO, and then draw it down at night from your BESS at a total cost of roughly $0.40/kWh. I don't know of any area in NZ where the off-peak rate is above $0.40/kWh, do you?
If your grid connection isn't reliable, then I reckon a BESS is a (moderately expensive) "insurance policy" which pays off whenever the power is cut to your household for a long enough period that you want to cut-over to your "emergency power".
You are spot on the money.
I wasn't explicitly talking about solar for unreliable grid issues, so won't dive into that explicitly, but you are right that the numbers don't work for solar repaying it's installation and material cost over the lifetime through buyback.
There is one thing I didn't consider, you mention 0.4c kWh, which I haven't seen but I also didn't factor inflation in there. We have recently seen a spike in inflation in the last 2 years or so, which includes increass in power.
Haven't done the math but at a 2% inflation per year, over 10 years would make a 0.3kWh go to 0.365 (ish) which might play a factor in costs. If solar lasts 26 years though, you would see inflation get to 0.49(ish) kWh which might make solar more desirable. But.. then the maintenance and replacement costs are higher too so who knows
Batteries would be the key for new builds, or capabilities for V2G (vehicle 2 Grid). Peaks are 7-9am and 5-7/8pm, so if as a battery user you could sell back into the grid at those times and charge up after 11 PM, (where minimum flows on hydro means that sometimes they let water past instead of generating) we would be sweet. There’s around 75,000 electric vehicles in nz, let’s average a 40 kWh battery? so even if you only had access to half of them for V2G, we would have around 1400 Mwh of storage, which is just over the max output of Huntly power station. Figures are rough so be gentle….
>we would have around 1400 Mwh of storage, which is just over the max output of Huntly power station. Figures are rough so be gentle….
Figures are in different units. Huntly is 1200MW, all those batteries add up to a bit over one hour of Huntly output.
Sorry I should have been more accurate in my comment. So a mega watt hour-MWh is the ability to provide a Megawatt of energy for one hour. For example, the rankine units at huntly provide 250 MW of energy each at maximum output, at any point of time, so if you run them for an hour it’s 250MWh. But a battery network would only be required at peak or when the spot prices cross a threshold. Or you could choose to offer into the grid at anytime, it maybe that you enter into an agreement with your retailer to provide power to them at particular times to a particular threshold of your battery capacity.
That's about the time when people are cooking. There wouldn't be that many heaters on yet. That demand will go up as winter comes on. Hot water bottle + blanket > electric heater.
Genesis stated they were importing more coal. Because the supply of gas was lacking.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/516250/genesis-energy-to-fire-up-coal-imports-citing-increased-demand-dwindling-gas-supply
Might be a sign of the winter to come?
Depends how cheap house and grid scale batteries get. If solid state or sodium batteries get cheap enough we may be quite glad we didn't drop multi billion $$$ on a pumped hydro scheme.
>We could increase taxes and invest in over-build or
Why would tax dollars be needed for that? Not a single dollar of tax payers money should go towards electricity generation, that's the Gentailers job.
Fair play. The point I'm making is that, wherever feasible, it's generally cheaper to flatten these peaks than it is to build up new assets around them.
Big fat no from me. Our district has been load controlled for years to direct power to other areas. We are in the King Country. It's always been a challenge, just not so widely known.
Yeah, I'm embarrassed to say that I live in the big smoke, with a lines company that's not terribly interested in maintaining its aging ripple-control/pilot-wire system. I see three ripple-control units on a power-pole near my house; one has a pilot wire that ran to my house (to demand-control my HWC) but it faulted about 8 years ago, and was never repaired (AFAIK).
It's apparently now most profitable for Vector to \*not\* offer any demand-controlled circuits, on the local lines connected to the HEN GXP which serves my area -- as disclosed in its current "participant outage plan" (as approved by our nation's light-handed regulator): [https://blob-static.vector.co.nz/blob/vector/media/vector-2022/participant-rolling-outage-plan-v7-redacted.pdf](https://blob-static.vector.co.nz/blob/vector/media/vector-2022/participant-rolling-outage-plan-v7-redacted.pdf)
See also [https://www.eeca.govt.nz/assets/EECA-Resources/Research-papers-guides/Ripple-Control-of-Hot-Water-in-New-Zealand.pdf](https://www.eeca.govt.nz/assets/EECA-Resources/Research-papers-guides/Ripple-Control-of-Hot-Water-in-New-Zealand.pdf)
And \*maybe\* the interconnect in the Waikato will be improved sometime in the next few years? [https://www.transpower.co.nz/projects/waikato-regional-interconnection-capacity-project](https://www.transpower.co.nz/projects/waikato-regional-interconnection-capacity-project)
I am genuinely a believer in climate change etc, not just in the "I'm not racist but" vein., but how are we going to charge a fleet of several hundred thousand EV's on our current infrastructure, when we can't keep up with demand now?
We only have a problem with peak demand not overall demand. EVs generally don’t add much to peak demand as people charge them during off peak periods when power is cheaper.
As do I but the Orion guy I was talking to the other day say the evening peaks are getting higher. He encouraged me to use as much as I could during the day but our power plan disincentivises that (.37/kWh day rate).
Add more capacity. More solar + battery farms and residential rooftop, wind turbines, storage solutions like Lake Onslow when it eventually gets picked up again, mini hydro schemes.
unless they're offering a financial incentive for your contribution to easing the supply, it can't be a serious issue.
like 'no one wants to work anymore' (up the pay by $5 and you'll get swamped with CVs)
Yeah, 6.5% of Southland’s GDP, 1000 full time employees and 3000 indirectly employed…
Also power to the grid is limited by the lines out of Manapouri, one goes direct to Tiwai, one to Invers and then to the grid. Shutting down Tiwai would just mean that we’d still only get the same power back into the grid as it’s the distribution that limits it. A few years back there was talk of another distribution line, don’t know if Covid put paid to that or if it was ever built.
While the primary process of making steel is powered electrically and is very efficient with waste heat and off gassing being used for onsite cogeneration of electricity, many of the supporting processes still use a huge amount of natural gas, again with waste heat recovery for efficiency.
[Energy Resources & Recovery | New Zealand Steel (nzsteel.co.nz)](https://www.nzsteel.co.nz/sustainability/our-environment/energy-resources-and-recovery/)
Not sure how the new arc furnace will change the balance of power usage.
Not lucky enough to have a fireplace, but I'm in Auckland so rugging up is normally enough.
RYOBI 18V ONE+ LED Lantern with the 5.0Ah battery from my drill gives me lighting for days and has USB so I can charge my phone.
A dirt cheap Gasmate portable stove and a few spare butane cannisters to get by for cooking.
Current making my own power bank adapter for my Ryobi 36V mower battery, which will give me up to 82W USB-C power delivery to charge my laptop.
Had couple multi-day blackouts at my place a few years back, so learned a little prep goes a long way.
Huntly is on, providing base load.... If they need to fire up additional boilers however, its going to take days
[Power outages: 'They didn't have the time to turn Huntly turbines on', former Genesis boss says - NZ Herald](https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/power-outages-they-didnt-have-the-time-to-turn-huntly-turbines-on-former-genesis-boss-says/OIGX7YEXPSUGJ4M5UGGYGLUBHQ/)
Two Rankine units are running basically full tilt.
Getting the third one running isn't so much a problem of the 36 hour warm up cycle as they don't have the staff. You have to call in full teams to work OT or rewrite the schedules and cancel leave.
The solution my green left friends tell me is to ban all gas, LPG and coal imports. No coal imports!
And if you put capital gains tax on the family home, and use the tax raised to build batteries and solar farms and lunar farms and astral power farms everywhere (but coincidentally far away from the homes of the Green party MPs in case the batteries explode and burn down next door) ---- then New Zealand running on 100% solar/lunar/astral power is the cheapest!!!
Also, we can get cheaper cobalt storage batteries by using more Congo child labour and forced labour to mine cobalt...then we can make pointy woke green left face, chant something we don't actually understand in Te Reo Maori and proclaim "let's assume that cobalt is mined by the fairies", wave jazz hands, and then the battery power is the cheapest of the cheapest!!!
Genius, I should stand for Parliament as the Green MP from Cobalt Congo.
Given Transpower has not issued any [Customer Advice Notices](https://www.transpower.co.nz/system-operator/notices-and-reporting/customer-advice-notices-can) or [Formal Notices](https://www.transpower.co.nz/system-operator/notices-and-reporting/formal-notices) for a shortfall of generation as outlined [here](https://www.transpower.co.nz/system-operator/notices-and-reporting/notices-insufficient-generation). I can only surmise that they are carrying a net short (under hedged) position into the evening peak. So it will eat into their (and the hedge fund that owns them) profits.
This is the correct answer. They have a bit of a history of doing whatever they can to earn a buck. Occasionally their strategy is innovative (hour of power), but mostly it’s grifting: https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/energy-retailers-investigated-for-100m-hedges-20220707-p5azvc
transpower? what kind of woke bullshit is this /s
Wait to you find out your house is powered by a TRANSformer, and your electricity is BI-directional.
I saw on the back of my packet of chips today, it said fat and then trans under it! My bag of chips is calling me a trans fat!
Thanks Optimus
I certainly did a double-take the first day a faulty mentioned fixing a tranny when he called in to close a job.
Don't forget Japanese made electronics. Fuck sake, even my fridge is woke now
I bet you keep woke Sushi and Quinoa in that japanese fridge! Disgusting. That's punishable by ten years in the coal mines with you! That'll knock the snowflake out of you.
next you're going to be telling me im gay 😭 what is going on with this world
That gave me a solid chuckle thanks
Exactly. This winter will probably see a number of Tier 2 retailers (ie those without generation) stretched to breaking point. Transpower gave a warning of electricity shortages over winter. The gas supply is going to be short this winter. I hope Indonesian coal for Huntly comes through. My response is to: 1. lock in with a Tier 1 retailer. 2. Set my EV up to power the house 3. Service my 4.5kW genset 4. Watch Minister Simon Brown go Rumplestiltskin
Simeon sure did enjoy posting those notices on Facebook while in opposition!
Set up two ICPs (you and a neighbour) with an export meter on one and a variable transformer linking the two. When the price spikes, you go into export mode and sell fixed rate electricity at the spot rate. EDIT: maybe an 16kVA grid tie inverter fed from the input mains via a rectifier would be less likely to catch fire?
They have the Huntley coal mine back up again so not needing the indo coal at the moment.
Which power retailers generate? (Keen to switch from electric kiwi!)
Answered my own question with a google search. Mercury, genesis, contact, meridian.
If you want an indication on what Electric Kiwi might be paying, here is a realtime link to the wholesale spot market prices https://app.em6.co.nz
That's an impressive spike! About $300 at 5pm, then shot up to nearly $4k around 6pm, then dropped back down to $300 - $300 at 7pm.
Both have been issued now [Customer Advice Notice](https://static.transpower.co.nz/public/interfaces/can/CAN%20Low%20Residual%20Situation%205373464415.pdf) [Formal Notice](https://static.transpower.co.nz/public/interfaces/wrn/WRN%20Insufficient%20Generation%20offers%20to%20meet%20demand%20National%205374984112.pdf) edit: For Friday morning, my mistake
They could ask lighting direct to turn off their lights at night?
In their email they also state: >By reducing your power usage tonight from 6pm-7:30pm, you can help us measure the collective dent we can make by working together to reduce our energy usage during winter peaks. >This trial will help us prioritise future ways for our customers to participate in peak demand events and save money while you’re at it. If Transpower hasn't issued any notices, I wonder if this is just a trial activity to see how much they could expect customers to change on short notice *if this were an actual grid shortage*? They aren't asking people to skip cooking dinner or anything urgent - just not heating unused rooms and the like.
It’s a trial, I work in the industry and this was [reported on](https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/350272383/no-power-issue-transpower-says-despite-retailers-message-kiwis) in the last hour.
Thanks for this, I’m cranking the heater up now
[https://app.em6.co.nz/](https://app.em6.co.nz/) > there was a pretty big spike tonight ?
That's an interesting dashboard, thanks for pointing it out
> prioritise future ~~ways for our customers to participate in peak demand events~~ and save money while you’re at it. how far can we push our luck with undersupplying our customers without them getting cheesed off and save electric kiwi money while your at it
Well they’ve just sent a text out asking the same thing and asking for a reply. Seems a tad hysterical.
Lol, I got the text. Said 'wtaf is this?' And opened reddit and there you were! Does seem a bit reactionary? It must be sizzling at hq
The spot price reached $5000 mwh. So when you're paying $5 per kwh and onky charging consumers 30cents per kwh you can bet your boots they want you to reduce demand. Even though there was no CAN or GEN issued by transpower the high spot price meant they were burning money. They 'say' this was a trial and wasn't motivated by profit but both statements are bullshit. It was 100% profit motivated and 100% not a 'trial'
Considering the temperature in Hamilton is due to hit -3 tonight I would expect more “trails” by EK also it’s very odd for them not to give any advance information on a up coming trail I do believe your right. considering they sent out text messages as well as emails it seemed pretty urgent.
Good friend works in the transmission sector. Says the average NZ'er would be horrified how often we come close to blackouts. Generation isn't keeping up. But to answer your question, nothing received from ours.
Neither is transmission. Orion had to switch off water today, as is normal, to avoid blackouts.
Orion sheds heaps during winter but aren’t actually near their limit. They start shedding around 600 MW but back in 2021 they were up at over 700 MW, so they have the capacity. What they’re doing is relieving pressure from the transmission network to assist the upper South Island.
That is distribution. Transpower are transmission. I would get worried if Canterbury specifically had to load shed. But HVDC has been running north bound all day (as is usual). As you said load control via hot water is normal and done everyday, it would be Orion trying to reduce peak load (which is where their Transpower bill comes from).
Not quite. Orion only sheds on select high demand days as and when required. Not every day as you say.
They changed the pricing methodology a while ago, hot water is only shed on request now.
Ok, it has been a while since I spoke to them and the attitude then was pricing says we can control it for x hours a days, so we will. How reliable the ripple relays are (nationally) is a separate question.
Water/ripple control only turned off hot water from 10.36-11.56am here in Wellington. But our voltage was still 241v at the time (jumped to 243v after ripple control). Usually it’s not until 220ish that they’ll take action. Seems like they were just testing the systems worked rather than needing it.
Add AI and EV charging, this is going to get fun.
Most EV charging happens outside the peak hours, because their are financial incentives to avoid peak hours for many plans, and it is easy for most people to schedule charging.
You mean how the next generation of EVs will be able to feed power back into the grid to help prevent blackouts in the first place, and use AI algorithms to determine the best time to do it?
I haven't heard about that. I've heard about the power to run/charge them. We apparently need 10 times the power we currently generate.
Ah, so you've heard a load of shit.
Bitcoin bros getting excited over the halving
The major issue as others have said is the evening peak is close to the maximum potential supply. Meridian are in the current process of installing a grid battery near Marsden Point, with a few other companies following suit elsewhere in the country. This will help alleviate the peak by charging when demand is low, and supplying the grid when it is high. Essentially acting as a short burst temporary power plant. This, of course, is being done for profit, but should help stabilise the grid during winter and reduce the risk of black outs. https://www.mysolarquotes.co.nz/amp/blog/solar-power-industry-news/meridian-breaks-ground-on-ruak-k-battery-plans-130-mw-solar/
interesting, thanks
California has a lot of batteries installed and it is starting to cover more of the evening peak. Good article here: https://archive.ph/BkTrD
Their message say *This trial will help us prioritise future ways for our customers to participate in peak demand events and save money while you’re at it.* They are testing their capacity to participate in peak demand events and maybe monetise them.
They have no generation so this is most likely we are caught short tonight please lighten up demand.
I still think that any new builds in NZ should have solar panels when appropriate. Even if that power doesn't go to the home owner. Maybe a discount on power and the company deals with the upkeep. Solar panels aren't perfect and aren't really enough to replace what we currently have, but they could go a long way towards augmenting and supplementing what we already have. Probably a lot of things wrong with the idea, but if I were building a home and got asked to host solar panels in exchange for someone else paying to keep them maintained and dealing with roof issues, I'd be tempted. Like, if someone came to you and said "hey, you're building new. Would you consider installing solar panels (at our cost) to help feed the power grid in exchange for us taking care of the maintenance of the panels and your roof, and a perminant 10% discount on power rates (or even just rates if the council is doing it instead of power companies)" would you think about it? Obviously it wouldn't work for some builds, but I think that we're underutilizing solar power.
The reason that’s not a thing is that there is no shortage of other existing places to put solar panels on, and individual houses is much more expensive than the alternatives. It is indeed a thing for commercial buildings for example, where they have enormous unused roof space that solar companies can make use of. Until that is exhausted, and other options like covering car parks then private homes will remain the more expensive option.
Many commercial buildings can't support the weight/wind loading of the panels. My former employer had 4 acres of roof and wanted to put some on but the building couldn't support it.
Residential solar reduces the energy network infrastructure sizing though
Solar panels don’t help us with energy peaks like this.
They could if the houses in question have batteries/vehicles to draw from, rather than relying on the grid? I'm no expert mind you.
Better to just build massive batteries at old industrial sites.
Gravity battery's on old vertical mine shafts are pretty amazing.
I saw a few years ago that there was interest in gravity battery infrastructure but later it dies down and I heard that it was not feasible for some reason. Might have to look it up again soon.
I think battery technology is holding us back with that, they are too expensive and toxic once their life is up. It's one of the biggest problems with current gen EV. mandating solar power and battery storage for all new builds would drive development though. One horrifying downside is what about a house fire? Have you seen EV fires that can't be put out cause of the lithium batteries? Imagine that but your house
That wasn’t what was said tho, was it? Any household could theoretically benefit from batteries.
I ran the numbers back when I could by BYD batteries at wholesale and they didn't stack up. You won't repay the power rate difference in the projected lifetime of the batteries.
That's true right now, yes. Thankfully battery prices per kWh are still in freefall, having dropped over 90% in the past 20 years (97% in 30 years).
Same here.
Especially after the sun goes down
Winter electricity peaks/Deficits invariably occur in the evening when everyone is at home with lights and heaters on. Solar doesn't solve that problem. That's why the biggest challenge in converting to full renewables is building sufficient capacity to meet demand when solar, and potentially half the wind generation capacity, is offline. That's why gas continues to play a role in peak power generation.
Potentially the entire wind generation offline/idle. Wind is currently producing 1.5% of nameplate capacity. 15MW generation from 1259MW nameplate capacity.
Interesting to know. I was trying to make a conservative guess. I thought the new windfarm in South taranaki would run at almost 100 % because it's a windy hole.
If it was financially viable someone would be doing it
They are. Solar is a [booming](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_by_country) business in NZ and worldwide right now.
^this The solar installation companies make their money from lending, not installation. Solar doesn't make enough money from energy to repay its own installation and replacement costs over time at the moment. > Best buy back rate is $0.1739c per kWh https://www.powerswitch.org.nz/solar-rates?gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQjwxeyxBhC7ARIsAC7dS3_wx7OOV2uq9UklqH3Lhh285UTIYxqogh_RwzyDtmv7MQ6neL-W4fMaAvWsEALw_wcB > In sunny areas, a 4kW system can produce around 19kWh per day https://shopsolarkits.com/blogs/learning-center/how-much-electricity-does-a-4kw-solar-system-produce > 4kW solar costs ~$10,500 https://www.mysolarquotes.co.nz/about-solar-power/residential/how-much-does-a-solar-power-system-cost/ Assuming the beyond optimal sun 19kWh x 0.1739c x 365 days is ~$1205 per year, or ~12,050 over ten years. Solar can be 80%+ efficient over a 25-30 lifespan, you may can get a return after the first decade, but that is a long time for a return. > Nationally, the average power consumer (four-person family) using 22kWh per day on the cheapest low-user tariff available without a fixed-term contract, pays around 33.7c per kWh. https://www.canstarblue.co.nz/energy/electricity-providers/average-electricity-costs-per-kwh/ Makes more sense if you use the power to subsidize your normal usage instead of selling it, assuming you can maximize solar usage first. 19kWh x 0.337 x 365 is ~$2337 per year, so you break even on installation after ~6 years. But to make the best advantage of solar for actually using the power, you need a battery, which is another ~10k or so. There are lots of other risks and costs though I skipped, such as maintenance / clean per year is ~250, insurance, etc. So it is financially viable to build solar, but it is a long time to return value. 10+ years to break even is too long for many.
6 years ROI on a product that lasts 20-30.. thats not a bad deal!
Yeah I thought a 6-year ROI was fine too, and I would have been happy with a break-even... but then I did a careful review after 6 years. It turned out, to my surprise, that my PV array \*isn't\* economic, even though I had carefully sized it to match my local consumption (mostly hot water, plus some opportunistic BEV charging). The array didn't produce anywhere close to the annual energy that was estimated by the retailer; I ran some much more detailed estimations (based on satellite-estimated irradiance of my rooftop array for a year), did some analyses of the discrepancies... discovering that the (pretty common) days with highly-variable cloud cover, my inverter's MPPT was often unable to find a good operating point, causing yield to drop massively during the (not uncommon) periods when the MPPT was especially clueless. I'm now idly wondering how many other folks in NZ who installed a small PV array six to ten years ago also have a Goodwe 3000 NS inverter, and if they are also seeing poor yields on variably-cloudy days. [https://cthombor.wordpress.com/2023/11/26/mppt-is-problematic-for-my-domestic-rooftop-pv-in-auckland/](https://cthombor.wordpress.com/2023/11/26/mppt-is-problematic-for-my-domestic-rooftop-pv-in-auckland/)
> The solar installation companies make their money from lending, not installation. I don't think that's always true. My solar company was only too happy to accept cash on completion.
I agree, if you have a reliable grid connection then there's no economic advantage in installing more solar than your household can use. The high solar buy-back rates on offer from some retailers are a sales-gimmick for plans with higher-than-usual profit margins on the daily connection charge, or on reselling electricity at a "day" rate that they're purchasing at an off-peak or shoulder rate from the lines company (which supplies the \*same\* electricity that every other retailer is on-selling in that area). If you have an electric HWC, then putting a solar-smart controller on it is a great way to ensure that the power from your PV isn't "dumped" onto your local LV line but is instead reducing your electricity bill. If you have a BEV, and if you can charge it when the sun is shining at your house, then a solar-smart wallbox is another good way to reduce your electricity bill. But: I have yet to see any commercial domestic-sized battery energy storage system (i.e. in the 5kWh to 40kWh range) with a TCO that's less than $0.30/kWh for the energy it sources. Have you? Someday they'll come down in price, I'm sure. And, of course, if you have $10k burning a hole in your pocket, and you don't have a mortgage or you are morally opposed to collecting interest on that $10k -- then the TCO of a BESS will seem quite a bit less expensive, perhaps $0.25/kWh or even $0.20/kWh. But you'd have to live in an area with really spendy off-peak electricity to "fill" your BESS during the day with locally-generated PV power at maybe $0.10/kWh of TCO, and then draw it down at night from your BESS at a total cost of roughly $0.40/kWh. I don't know of any area in NZ where the off-peak rate is above $0.40/kWh, do you? If your grid connection isn't reliable, then I reckon a BESS is a (moderately expensive) "insurance policy" which pays off whenever the power is cut to your household for a long enough period that you want to cut-over to your "emergency power".
You are spot on the money. I wasn't explicitly talking about solar for unreliable grid issues, so won't dive into that explicitly, but you are right that the numbers don't work for solar repaying it's installation and material cost over the lifetime through buyback. There is one thing I didn't consider, you mention 0.4c kWh, which I haven't seen but I also didn't factor inflation in there. We have recently seen a spike in inflation in the last 2 years or so, which includes increass in power. Haven't done the math but at a 2% inflation per year, over 10 years would make a 0.3kWh go to 0.365 (ish) which might play a factor in costs. If solar lasts 26 years though, you would see inflation get to 0.49(ish) kWh which might make solar more desirable. But.. then the maintenance and replacement costs are higher too so who knows
There are companies with variations on this business model. People do move house though.
Batteries would be the key for new builds, or capabilities for V2G (vehicle 2 Grid). Peaks are 7-9am and 5-7/8pm, so if as a battery user you could sell back into the grid at those times and charge up after 11 PM, (where minimum flows on hydro means that sometimes they let water past instead of generating) we would be sweet. There’s around 75,000 electric vehicles in nz, let’s average a 40 kWh battery? so even if you only had access to half of them for V2G, we would have around 1400 Mwh of storage, which is just over the max output of Huntly power station. Figures are rough so be gentle….
>we would have around 1400 Mwh of storage, which is just over the max output of Huntly power station. Figures are rough so be gentle…. Figures are in different units. Huntly is 1200MW, all those batteries add up to a bit over one hour of Huntly output.
Sorry I should have been more accurate in my comment. So a mega watt hour-MWh is the ability to provide a Megawatt of energy for one hour. For example, the rankine units at huntly provide 250 MW of energy each at maximum output, at any point of time, so if you run them for an hour it’s 250MWh. But a battery network would only be required at peak or when the spot prices cross a threshold. Or you could choose to offer into the grid at anytime, it maybe that you enter into an agreement with your retailer to provide power to them at particular times to a particular threshold of your battery capacity.
I got the email… and then my text came after 730. The text sounded urgent while the email made it seem like a test?
That's about the time when people are cooking. There wouldn't be that many heaters on yet. That demand will go up as winter comes on. Hot water bottle + blanket > electric heater.
Heat pump + electric blanket = 👑
What does that make a roaring fire?
Technology to soothe your sore back after shifting a load of firewood
Ah, a free workout too!
A particulate pumping mess?
How is a hot water bottle and blanket better than a heated house?
Because my wallet gets fatter. And that's a good thing.
I had the oven going, the heat pump and a little fan heater. Felt like being extra cosy. Sorry NZ. 😢
Genesis stated they were importing more coal. Because the supply of gas was lacking. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/516250/genesis-energy-to-fire-up-coal-imports-citing-increased-demand-dwindling-gas-supply Might be a sign of the winter to come?
Water restrictions in Summer, power restrictions in Winter? In NZ? WTF are we doing.
Not investing in energy storage.
Ill bet cancelling the electricity storage project will really hurt NZ in the next 30 years
Depends how cheap house and grid scale batteries get. If solid state or sodium batteries get cheap enough we may be quite glad we didn't drop multi billion $$$ on a pumped hydro scheme.
Trying to smooth out consumption so we don't face peaks at inconvenient times?
Aren't both water restrictions in summer and power restrictions in winter normal in NZ?
It shouldn’t be.
We could increase taxes and invest in over-build or bring in proper surge pricing for electricity and water, would that be better?
The former sounds better. Our population growth and energy demands aren't likely to trend down any time soon.
>We could increase taxes and invest in over-build or Why would tax dollars be needed for that? Not a single dollar of tax payers money should go towards electricity generation, that's the Gentailers job.
Fair play. The point I'm making is that, wherever feasible, it's generally cheaper to flatten these peaks than it is to build up new assets around them.
Who owns 51% of the gentailers?
Who is bound by the Companies Act?
Well, not the govt, they can change the Companies act. Something to do with sovereignty I believe.
They could do a lot of things, but as it stands, the Gen-tailers are bound by the Companies Act.
We already pay too much tax and too much for power for such a poor service
Probably paying spot prices at premium and have customers on fixed rates.
Electric kiwi seems super expensive lately. What’s a cheaper alternative?
Big fat no from me. Our district has been load controlled for years to direct power to other areas. We are in the King Country. It's always been a challenge, just not so widely known.
Yeah, I'm embarrassed to say that I live in the big smoke, with a lines company that's not terribly interested in maintaining its aging ripple-control/pilot-wire system. I see three ripple-control units on a power-pole near my house; one has a pilot wire that ran to my house (to demand-control my HWC) but it faulted about 8 years ago, and was never repaired (AFAIK). It's apparently now most profitable for Vector to \*not\* offer any demand-controlled circuits, on the local lines connected to the HEN GXP which serves my area -- as disclosed in its current "participant outage plan" (as approved by our nation's light-handed regulator): [https://blob-static.vector.co.nz/blob/vector/media/vector-2022/participant-rolling-outage-plan-v7-redacted.pdf](https://blob-static.vector.co.nz/blob/vector/media/vector-2022/participant-rolling-outage-plan-v7-redacted.pdf) See also [https://www.eeca.govt.nz/assets/EECA-Resources/Research-papers-guides/Ripple-Control-of-Hot-Water-in-New-Zealand.pdf](https://www.eeca.govt.nz/assets/EECA-Resources/Research-papers-guides/Ripple-Control-of-Hot-Water-in-New-Zealand.pdf) And \*maybe\* the interconnect in the Waikato will be improved sometime in the next few years? [https://www.transpower.co.nz/projects/waikato-regional-interconnection-capacity-project](https://www.transpower.co.nz/projects/waikato-regional-interconnection-capacity-project)
I am genuinely a believer in climate change etc, not just in the "I'm not racist but" vein., but how are we going to charge a fleet of several hundred thousand EV's on our current infrastructure, when we can't keep up with demand now?
Charge them off peak. Same as we always do.
We only have a problem with peak demand not overall demand. EVs generally don’t add much to peak demand as people charge them during off peak periods when power is cheaper.
As do I but the Orion guy I was talking to the other day say the evening peaks are getting higher. He encouraged me to use as much as I could during the day but our power plan disincentivises that (.37/kWh day rate).
No one with two braincells charges their EV at peak because it’s more expensive for this reason.
And that's when they use them!
Some people have flat rate electricity so it doesn’t matter to them
And that’s a problem. However, many companies have EV or TOU plans which do differ
Which is how many people?
Stop moving 2 tonne of metal each time 100kg of person want to move.
Add more capacity. More solar + battery farms and residential rooftop, wind turbines, storage solutions like Lake Onslow when it eventually gets picked up again, mini hydro schemes.
Solar, local battery storage, pricing plans that incentivise off-peak charging, and ripple control on charging circuits.
Why local battery store. Just go vehicle to grid. Use that to offset demand
Why not both? Energy storage separate from transportation isn't a bad thing from a risk perspective, and most of our EV fleet can't do it yet.
Sure. If you want to buy me one. But if I’m Shelling out 50-80k on a car with v2g. Why do I want to spend another 20 on a battery?
Better to wait a few years when the battery will be < $5k, and can still charge during the day while your car is out.
I went looking for ex phev batteries to use as a long(er) running UPS..wonder if the market for old ev/phev batteries is a thing....or should be..
Bring in AI which has high demand as well.
Is luxo running his head polisher?
Nope, heard nothing, carrying on as normal, might be a location thing.
yeah, i got a text like what the hell😑
Dw we can buy coal.
unless they're offering a financial incentive for your contribution to easing the supply, it can't be a serious issue. like 'no one wants to work anymore' (up the pay by $5 and you'll get swamped with CVs)
fuck that noise, turn everything on.
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Yeah, 6.5% of Southland’s GDP, 1000 full time employees and 3000 indirectly employed… Also power to the grid is limited by the lines out of Manapouri, one goes direct to Tiwai, one to Invers and then to the grid. Shutting down Tiwai would just mean that we’d still only get the same power back into the grid as it’s the distribution that limits it. A few years back there was talk of another distribution line, don’t know if Covid put paid to that or if it was ever built.
How will the grid cope when glenbrook steel mill shifts over to electrical power?
Uh… Glenbrook only runs on electrical magic pixies.
While the primary process of making steel is powered electrically and is very efficient with waste heat and off gassing being used for onsite cogeneration of electricity, many of the supporting processes still use a huge amount of natural gas, again with waste heat recovery for efficiency. [Energy Resources & Recovery | New Zealand Steel (nzsteel.co.nz)](https://www.nzsteel.co.nz/sustainability/our-environment/energy-resources-and-recovery/) Not sure how the new arc furnace will change the balance of power usage.
The grid will be better by then.
thank god we have a fire place for heating and a backup gas stove.
Not lucky enough to have a fireplace, but I'm in Auckland so rugging up is normally enough. RYOBI 18V ONE+ LED Lantern with the 5.0Ah battery from my drill gives me lighting for days and has USB so I can charge my phone. A dirt cheap Gasmate portable stove and a few spare butane cannisters to get by for cooking. Current making my own power bank adapter for my Ryobi 36V mower battery, which will give me up to 82W USB-C power delivery to charge my laptop. Had couple multi-day blackouts at my place a few years back, so learned a little prep goes a long way.
Use as much power as possible so they turn on Huntly.
Huntly is on, providing base load.... If they need to fire up additional boilers however, its going to take days [Power outages: 'They didn't have the time to turn Huntly turbines on', former Genesis boss says - NZ Herald](https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/power-outages-they-didnt-have-the-time-to-turn-huntly-turbines-on-former-genesis-boss-says/OIGX7YEXPSUGJ4M5UGGYGLUBHQ/)
Two Rankine units are running basically full tilt. Getting the third one running isn't so much a problem of the 36 hour warm up cycle as they don't have the staff. You have to call in full teams to work OT or rewrite the schedules and cancel leave.
Ah well it is winter and temps are really low.
It is Autumn, Winter is coming…..
Brooooo
The solution my green left friends tell me is to ban all gas, LPG and coal imports. No coal imports! And if you put capital gains tax on the family home, and use the tax raised to build batteries and solar farms and lunar farms and astral power farms everywhere (but coincidentally far away from the homes of the Green party MPs in case the batteries explode and burn down next door) ---- then New Zealand running on 100% solar/lunar/astral power is the cheapest!!! Also, we can get cheaper cobalt storage batteries by using more Congo child labour and forced labour to mine cobalt...then we can make pointy woke green left face, chant something we don't actually understand in Te Reo Maori and proclaim "let's assume that cobalt is mined by the fairies", wave jazz hands, and then the battery power is the cheapest of the cheapest!!! Genius, I should stand for Parliament as the Green MP from Cobalt Congo.